politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What should the losers do next on 24 June?
Comments
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Who, other than SeanT?Stark_Dawning said:
I don't know. Some Leavers on here have said that Tory Remainers should be hunted 'like rats' by mobs with pitchforks. .williamglenn said:Meanwhile in a less bitter political fight...
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/02/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-imprisoned/
"I will say this, Hillary Clinton has got to go to jail," Trump told supporters here as he slammed Clinton's foreign policy speech earlier in the day in which Clinton called Trump dangerous and "temperamentally unfit" to be president.
"Folks, honestly, she's guilty as hell," Trump said of the Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of state.
Trump has previously accused Clinton of breaking federal law, but his comments on Thursday are his most direct call yet for Clinton to face jail time over her use of private email to conduct official State Department affairs.
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That was Obama's quote (minus the Allo Allo accent), wasn't it?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Taffys, it is a shade ironic Merkel wants us 'at ze back of ze queue', unlike a million unvetted migrants.
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Now we have the Tory eurosceptic right gushing over the tweets of Jesmondo. Words fail me as to how low the Labour Party has sunk under his 'leadership'.PlatoSaid said:One of my favourite Jezza tweets - 22nd February
'Cameron's EU negotiations were a theatrical sideshow aiming to appease Tory party when it should've been about best deal for British people'
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Too many Leavers seem to take the view that although there are 28 nations cooperating in the EU British concerns should take precedence. There is a real arrogance in the UK's attitude to the EU and it has been there for decades. We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.PlatoSaid said:
And if they blink and give us what we want - they've then got a bunch of others demanding concessions. It's a no-win for the EU IMO.MarqueeMark said:
Readmission terms would surely have to include joining the Euro?ThreeQuidder said:If Remain lose, they're stuffed. We Leave, and they're unlikely to get readmission terms that they could sell to the British public even if they wanted to.
If Leave lose, they have two options: either say "the British people have for the second time taken politicians at their word that we are not committed to the centralisation process of ever closer union - we'll be watching, and if they turn out to have lied again as they did in 1975 they will not allow it to happpen a third time" -- or they say "the British people have accepted membership in the European Union that has ever closer union at its core - we should therefore pursue full membership including of the eurozone and Schengen and then put these terms to the public for ratification".
If we vote for out, we are gone UNLESS the Eurocrats immediately come back with an offer of Associate Membership, reduced membership fees etc etc....
We go, they've a domino effect to handle - if they offer us a bribe to stay, they've still got a problem.
All caused by their own intransigence.0 -
Mr. Herdson, yes, but the tone was comparable.
Fortunate for Remain it got little airtime due to BHS' closure and then Cameron's TV appearance.
Mr. Eagles, how's that surplus we're forecast to be running?
Mr. Tweed, post more, the site can always use more sensible chaps
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It's doing quite a good impression of the Empire in the fifth century.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Herdson, indeed. Brussels has aspirations and vices of the Roman Empire, but few, if any, of the virtues, and none of the backbone.
If Aurelian returned he'd run out of Europe to conquer by Thursday.
That started with a Brexit too. Hmm - there might be a thread in this. one for TSE?0 -
Too much about the Conservatives on here, have a break.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/03/corbyn-as-david-brent/0 -
Well those corporation tax levels are going up to 15% - thanks to an EU edict - not too different from the UK's 18% target.TheScreamingEagles said:
Our firm's Brexit analysis identified Dublin as a threat to the financial services sector, especially in light of Brexit plus those rates of corporation tax are very useful for Ireland. Their rate for R&D is something special.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?MaxPB said:Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
It's an option where we might open an office in the event of Brexit.0 -
He is the PB Leavers' spiritual leader, so I imagine the sentiment is shared.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Who, other than SeanT?Stark_Dawning said:
I don't know. Some Leavers on here have said that Tory Remainers should be hunted 'like rats' by mobs with pitchforks. .williamglenn said:Meanwhile in a less bitter political fight...
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/02/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-imprisoned/
"I will say this, Hillary Clinton has got to go to jail," Trump told supporters here as he slammed Clinton's foreign policy speech earlier in the day in which Clinton called Trump dangerous and "temperamentally unfit" to be president.
"Folks, honestly, she's guilty as hell," Trump said of the Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of state.
Trump has previously accused Clinton of breaking federal law, but his comments on Thursday are his most direct call yet for Clinton to face jail time over her use of private email to conduct official State Department affairs.0 -
Unfortunately that seems to be London. Full respect to Mr. Robert of this parish, but Goldman Sachs should have been run out of Town years ago.MarqueeMark said:
Goldman Sachs will stay exactly where Goldman Sachs wants to stay...Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, to take one obvious example, Goldman Sachs currently has 6,500 staff in the EU. 6,000 of them are in the UK. Without EU passporting, they'll have to beef up their operations somewhere else within the EU. Over time, that will inevitably be at the expense of London.MaxPB said:
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.Richard_Nabavi said:The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
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I'm genuinely surprised that you vote Tory, I'd you down as Labour/Left LD.midwinter said:As a Tory voter and supporter of the PM I'm concerned about the aftermath of a Leave vote in electoral terms. Anyone who can keep Labour out of office for 10 years is doing fine as far as I can see. The parallels with the Major years are alarming from a Conservative point of view.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.0 -
Mr. Herdson, does Merkel keep a chicken called Großbritannien?
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Not a chance. Cameron and the Remain campaign having denigrated and insulted almost half of his party, there is not a cat in hell's chance they are simply going to let him walk away unscathed.midwinter said:As a Tory voter and supporter of the PM I'm concerned about the aftermath of a Leave vote in electoral terms. Anyone who can keep Labour out of office for 10 years is doing fine as far as I can see. The parallels with the Major years are alarming from a Conservative point of view.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.0 -
Civil servants will handle the detail. Politicians will decide the terms. For as long as the negotiations take place we will be an EU member state, or we will leave with no agreement and will hope to conclude one subsequently. As you say, all this will be down to our elected government. It will be controlled by Leavers. So, as I say, we have to hope that their analysis is correct.HurstLlama said:
Who do you think will be doing the negotiating? It won't be this fictional Leave party that some on here seem to think actually exists, it will be HMG with all that entails. The details of the deals will as always be worked out by civil servants and other functionaries. Whoever is PM (which will not be Gove, as he has repeatedly said he doesn't want the job and is not cut out for it, is unlikely to be Boris, as I don't think he will command enough MPS to get on the ballot paper) can set the direction and have a final say (which, as always, will be yes to what the Civil Servants have worked out.SouthamObserver said:Anyone who hopes things go pear-shaped after a Brexit vote is a cock, quite frankly. Millions of livelihoods are at stake here. If Boris, Nigel and co have called this wrong it won't be the wealthy and the retired (in the UK) who pay the price, it will be average punters and their families.
I expect the negotiations to be long, very complicated (far too complex for any politician to handle), with give and take on both sides, mostly conducted in private and ultimately result in a compromise that everyone can live with. There will probably be some public posturing along the way, and probably some dramatic summit meeting at the eleventh hour.
I do not expect that they UK will get everything it wants but nor do I expect economic and financial armageddon. The process will take years, not weeks or months, and I doubt that the full effects will be felt for a decade. By which time so many other things will have happened that unravelling what caused them will be a matter for Historians rather than the interest of politicians.
There are lots of countries in the world, quite prosperous countries too, that trade quite happily with the EU without being a member of it or its single market or having to accept any of its citizens that happen to turn up. I see no reason why the UK should not re-join their ranks. Personally I think the fear thing is overblown.
However, the referendum has not even taken place, so all of this is idle speculation. Mr. Dawning's claim that the Remain cause is doomed may yet prove to be a false alarm. Remember also that Roger, gent of this parish, seems to be saying Leave will win.
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France and Greece would be two.OllyT said:
Too many Leavers seem to take the view that although there are 28 nations cooperating in the EU British concerns should take precedence. There is a real arrogance in the UK's attitude to the EU and it has been there for decades. We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.PlatoSaid said:
And if they blink and give us what we want - they've then got a bunch of others demanding concessions. It's a no-win for the EU IMO.MarqueeMark said:
Readmission terms would surely have to include joining the Euro?ThreeQuidder said:If Remain lose, they're stuffed. We Leave, and they're unlikely to get readmission terms that they could sell to the British public even if they wanted to.
If Leave lose, they have two options: either say "the British people have for the second time taken politicians at their word that we are not committed to the centralisation process of ever closer union - we'll be watching, and if they turn out to have lied again as they did in 1975 they will not allow it to happpen a third time" -- or they say "the British people have accepted membership in the European Union that has ever closer union at its core - we should therefore pursue full membership including of the eurozone and Schengen and then put these terms to the public for ratification".
If we vote for out, we are gone UNLESS the Eurocrats immediately come back with an offer of Associate Membership, reduced membership fees etc etc....
We go, they've a domino effect to handle - if they offer us a bribe to stay, they've still got a problem.
All caused by their own intransigence.0 -
No they aren't, the Irish, like us have a veto on such a thing.weejonnie said:
Well those corporation tax levels are going up to 15% - thanks to an EU edict - not too different from the UK's 18% target.TheScreamingEagles said:
Our firm's Brexit analysis identified Dublin as a threat to the financial services sector, especially in light of Brexit plus those rates of corporation tax are very useful for Ireland. Their rate for R&D is something special.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?MaxPB said:Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
It's an option where we might open an office in the event of Brexit.0 -
No, they're not.weejonnie said:
Well those corporation tax levels are going up to 15% - thanks to an EU edict - not too different from the UK's 18% target.TheScreamingEagles said:
Our firm's Brexit analysis identified Dublin as a threat to the financial services sector, especially in light of Brexit plus those rates of corporation tax are very useful for Ireland. Their rate for R&D is something special.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?MaxPB said:Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
It's an option where we might open an office in the event of Brexit.
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''We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.''
This would be a cracking point if we weren't the second biggest net contributor and a huge employer of European Citizens.
But we are. And he who pays the piper calls the tune, sunshine.
So drop and give us twenty.0 -
Well Turkey haven't been welcomed in (and won't until 3000AD according to Mr Cameron) - but the problem is: 12 million Turks will be.taffys said:What are EU members to think of an organisation that sanctions a vibrant democracy such as Britain, at the same time as welcoming Erdogan led Turkey.
Get lost, boys.0 -
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
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Absolutely, @rcs1000 has mentioned it quite frequently but Dublin is turning into London's Jersey City.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?MaxPB said:Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
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Well Turkey haven't been welcomed in (and won't until 3000AD according to Mr Cameron) - but the problem is: 12 million Turks will be.
You trust Cameron?
There had to be one, I guess.0 -
Dublin has the following drawbacks:
1) It's a small city
2) It's got awful transport
3) It's got a limited cultural life
But it will no doubt continue to siphon off financial services work. I think the "Jersey City" analogy is good.0 -
They'll be narked off. But rage isn't strategy. They bring a no confidence vote, he wins, they... what?Richard_Tyndall said:
Not a chance. Cameron and the Remain campaign having denigrated and insulted almost half of his party, there is not a cat in hell's chance they are simply going to let him walk away unscathed.midwinter said:As a Tory voter and supporter of the PM I'm concerned about the aftermath of a Leave vote in electoral terms. Anyone who can keep Labour out of office for 10 years is doing fine as far as I can see. The parallels with the Major years are alarming from a Conservative point of view.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.0 -
I think it would be an acceptable compromise, the EBA stays in London and we continue to accept ECB oversight of EUR trading in return we get the financial services passport. They win by not losing over half of EUR trading to an unregulated territory and we win by keeping the passport which a lot of smaller firms find useful.SouthamObserver said:
They will have zero oversight anyway and would have no ability to stop a move to any new kind of financial transaction in the City. What you are suggesting is that the EU retains oversight in return for passporting. Not sure that will play well.MaxPB said:
Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, to take one obvious example, Goldman Sachs currently has 6,500 staff in the EU. 6,000 of them are in the UK. Without EU passporting, they'll have to beef up their operations somewhere else within the EU. Over time, that will inevitably be at the expense of London.MaxPB said:
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.Richard_Nabavi said:The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
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They will be.SouthamObserver said:
No, they're not.weejonnie said:
Well those corporation tax levels are going up to 15% - thanks to an EU edict - not too different from the UK's 18% target.TheScreamingEagles said:
Our firm's Brexit analysis identified Dublin as a threat to the financial services sector, especially in light of Brexit plus those rates of corporation tax are very useful for Ireland. Their rate for R&D is something special.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?MaxPB said:Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
It's an option where we might open an office in the event of Brexit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11630468/France-and-Germany-behind-plans-for-common-EU-corporation-tax.html0 -
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?williamglenn said:
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
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I have yet to see any obstacle to us concurrently opening trade negotiations across the board from the moment we serve Article 50, with an expectation that they kick in on the day our membership formally lapses.
With regards to investment, the UK is currently a goldmine for the EU who turn a £61bn annual profit.
There must be a reasonable chance that investment will flow into the UK to protect that or from new suppliers to take advantage of it.
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No I don't trust him - and after June 23rd he will be irrelevant - but it was too good a tag line to ignore.taffys said:Well Turkey haven't been welcomed in (and won't until 3000AD according to Mr Cameron) - but the problem is: 12 million Turks will be.
You trust Cameron?
There had to be one, I guess.0 -
*Whispers*TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not Dave's fault George Osborne is so awesome at his job and the economy is booming.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I'd hoped the tongue-in-cheek element of that was clear.
And it could be worse. I could be claiming we can control migration within the EU.
Plus, he did get, an "emergency brake" on migrants' in-work benefits for four years when there are "exceptional" levels of migration. The UK will be able to operate the brake for seven years
Psst, Darth Eagles, that deal has yet to be verified by the European parliament and there is no guarantee that they will do so. Also I think you'll find that the decision to operate the "brake" will be taken by the EU in Brussels not by the British government, who can only ask for it to be used. Control will remain with the EU not the British government. Please also see the definition of the word "Exceptional" for how it might be used in this case.
Also if the economy is booming why do we still have a massive annual deficit and dreadful trade figures? What happened to the march of the makers - manufacturing doesn't seem to be doing so well. For all the other issues that Osborne has failed on please see numerous posts by the likes of Mr. AlanBrooke going back over the last few years.0 -
Read the link, each country has a veto, including the UK on this.weejonnie said:
They will be.SouthamObserver said:
No, they're not.weejonnie said:
Well those corporation tax levels are going up to 15% - thanks to an EU edict - not too different from the UK's 18% target.TheScreamingEagles said:
Our firm's Brexit analysis identified Dublin as a threat to the financial services sector, especially in light of Brexit plus those rates of corporation tax are very useful for Ireland. Their rate for R&D is something special.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?MaxPB said:Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
It's an option where we might open an office in the event of Brexit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11630468/France-and-Germany-behind-plans-for-common-EU-corporation-tax.html
Can you explain to me, why Ireland wouldn't veto this proposal?0 -
Another English-speaking option would be Edinburgh, assuming Scotland decides to stay in the EU.AlastairMeeks said:Dublin has the following drawbacks:
1) It's a small city
2) It's got awful transport
3) It's got a limited cultural life
But it will no doubt continue to siphon off financial services work. I think the "Jersey City" analogy is good.0 -
A Corbyn one? One that will never be used? There will be sweeteners and a bit of quid for the pro quo, but, as ever, the large countries will ride roughshod over the small ones.TheScreamingEagles said:
No they aren't, the Irish, like us have a veto on such a thing.weejonnie said:
Well those corporation tax levels are going up to 15% - thanks to an EU edict - not too different from the UK's 18% target.TheScreamingEagles said:
Our firm's Brexit analysis identified Dublin as a threat to the financial services sector, especially in light of Brexit plus those rates of corporation tax are very useful for Ireland. Their rate for R&D is something special.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?MaxPB said:Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
It's an option where we might open an office in the event of Brexit.0 -
It reads to me like the smartest thing Corbyn has ever said.Jobabob said:
Now we have the Tory eurosceptic right gushing over the tweets of Jesmondo. Words fail me as to how low the Labour Party has sunk under his 'leadership'.PlatoSaid said:One of my favourite Jezza tweets - 22nd February
'Cameron's EU negotiations were a theatrical sideshow aiming to appease Tory party when it should've been about best deal for British people'
What is there in his tweet that is not entirely correct?0 -
No, the moderate wing of Toryism is finished. The Tory hard-right sense blood. I can actually see IDS making a Nixon-like comeback as leader after all this. The fact that Leavers on here are gushing over remarks by Jeremy Corbyn shows how smitten they are with ideologues and how contemptuous they are of pragmatism and compromise. It's a frightening prospect.midwinter said:As a Tory voter and supporter of the PM I'm concerned about the aftermath of a Leave vote in electoral terms. Anyone who can keep Labour out of office for 10 years is doing fine as far as I can see. The parallels with the Major years are alarming from a Conservative point of view.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.0 -
What do you base that assertion on?glw said:
Airbus is likely to move more manufacturing from the UK come what may. Leaving the EU would make some difference, but those jobs are only marginally safer if we remain.Scott_P said:If Airbus close the Bristol factory, can Nige explain to the workers how they can cash their Sovereignty cheques?
Maybe the left wings might move to France?
http://www.airbus.com/company/worldwide-presence/airbus-in-uk/welcome-to-the-home-of-wings/0 -
For those after classical history recommendations, a few more are here:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/classical-history-for-intermediates.html0 -
But it also has a lot of advantages over Paris, Frankfurt or Milan:AlastairMeeks said:Dublin has the following drawbacks:
1) It's a small city
2) It's got awful transport
3) It's got a limited cultural life
But it will no doubt continue to siphon off financial services work. I think the "Jersey City" analogy is good.
1) English language
2) Well-educated, outward-looking, well-motivated workforce
3) Flexible labour market
4) Existing outsourcing relationship with London
5) Low costs
6) English-style legal system
7) Existing experience of hosting big US corporations
So it might build on the 'Jersey City' function and gradually siphon off more higher-level stuff.0 -
Funnily enough, that Telegraph article does not mention that Ireland has a veto on this.weejonnie said:
They will be.SouthamObserver said:
No, they're not.weejonnie said:
Well those corporation tax levels are going up to 15% - thanks to an EU edict - not too different from the UK's 18% target.TheScreamingEagles said:
Our firm's Brexit analysis identified Dublin as a threat to the financial services sector, especially in light of Brexit plus those rates of corporation tax are very useful for Ireland. Their rate for R&D is something special.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?MaxPB said:Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
It's an option where we might open an office in the event of Brexit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11630468/France-and-Germany-behind-plans-for-common-EU-corporation-tax.html
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Whats our unemployment rate compared to France?HurstLlama said:
*Whispers*TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not Dave's fault George Osborne is so awesome at his job and the economy is booming.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I'd hoped the tongue-in-cheek element of that was clear.
And it could be worse. I could be claiming we can control migration within the EU.
Plus, he did get, an "emergency brake" on migrants' in-work benefits for four years when there are "exceptional" levels of migration. The UK will be able to operate the brake for seven years
Psst, Darth Eagles, that deal has yet to be verified by the European parliament and there is no guarantee that they will do so. Also I think you'll find that the decision to operate the "brake" will be taken by the EU in Brussels not by the British government, who can only ask for it to be used. Control will remain with the EU not the British government. Please also see the definition of the word "Exceptional" for how it might be used in this case.
Also if the economy is booming why do we still have a massive annual deficit and dreadful trade figures? What happened to the march of the makers - manufacturing doesn't seem to be doing so well. For all the other issues that Osborne has failed on please see numerous posts by the likes of Mr. AlanBrooke going back over the last few years.0 -
Dublin: come and work here; it's a bit shit.AlastairMeeks said:Dublin has the following drawbacks:
1) It's a small city
2) It's got awful transport
3) It's got a limited cultural life
But it will no doubt continue to siphon off financial services work. I think the "Jersey City" analogy is good.0 -
Losing oversight of around half of EUR denominated trading is a massive drawback. In a world where synthetic clearing doesn't exist (the ideal scenario) then yes, it doesn't make sense to give us any concessions pm financial services, but given that the City can effectively clear it's own trades with no ECB oversight the EU may see that as a pretty big drawback and allow us to retain the passport to ensure they don't have a massive unregulated market which accounts for more trade than the regulated market.SouthamObserver said:
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?williamglenn said:
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
0 -
Yes, it would be quite possible for Scottish independence to be seen as an asset. I think that Frankfurt will be the big gainer though.edmundintokyo said:
Another English-speaking option would be Edinburgh, assuming Scotland decides to stay in the EU.AlastairMeeks said:Dublin has the following drawbacks:
1) It's a small city
2) It's got awful transport
3) It's got a limited cultural life
But it will no doubt continue to siphon off financial services work. I think the "Jersey City" analogy is good.0 -
''So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back? ''
This would be an excellent point if many EU policymakers didn;t hate the city and weren;t scheming to smash it to pieces at their earliest opportunity.
But they clearly are.
Sure outside we may take a hit. But I think we're gonna take a hit anyway.0 -
LOL...that is absolutely brilliant. Its funny because its true...Team Corbyn come out of that documentary even worse than Jez. All that is missing is the infamous Brent dance or perhaps somebody talking about Hitler and the Jews...TCPoliticalBetting said:Too much about the Conservatives on here, have a break.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/03/corbyn-as-david-brent/0 -
I think the pitch is "less shit than Frankfurt, cheaper than London."Casino_Royale said:
Dublin: come and work here; it's a bit shit.AlastairMeeks said:Dublin has the following drawbacks:
1) It's a small city
2) It's got awful transport
3) It's got a limited cultural life
But it will no doubt continue to siphon off financial services work. I think the "Jersey City" analogy is good.0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Area_Rapid_TransitAlastairMeeks said:Dublin has the following drawbacks:
2) It's got awful transport
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luas0 -
What's a cultural life?AlastairMeeks said:Dublin has the following drawbacks:
1) It's a small city
2) It's got awful transport
3) It's got a limited cultural life
But it will no doubt continue to siphon off financial services work. I think the "Jersey City" analogy is good.0 -
I am not sure that this is what those in the City angling for Brexit are looking for, or that it does much about returning sovereignty to the UK over a key part of our economy, but it does illustrate just how many compromises we will have to make to get a deal done.MaxPB said:
I think it would be an acceptable compromise, the EBA stays in London and we continue to accept ECB oversight of EUR trading in return we get the financial services passport. They win by not losing over half of EUR trading to an unregulated territory and we win by keeping the passport which a lot of smaller firms find useful.SouthamObserver said:
They will have zero oversight anyway and would have no ability to stop a move to any new kind of financial transaction in the City. What you are suggesting is that the EU retains oversight in return for passporting. Not sure that will play well.MaxPB said:
Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, to take one obvious example, Goldman Sachs currently has 6,500 staff in the EU. 6,000 of them are in the UK. Without EU passporting, they'll have to beef up their operations somewhere else within the EU. Over time, that will inevitably be at the expense of London.MaxPB said:
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.Richard_Nabavi said:The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
0 -
And that's based on what? If Frankfurt was going to make it happen it would have done so by now. Neither Paris nor Frankfurt are going to make any headway in the event of Brexit, it will be Dublin and maybe somewhere out towards the Baltic sea as mentioned previously.foxinsoxuk said:
Yes, it would be quite possible for Scottish independence to be seen as an asset. I think that Frankfurt will be the big gainer though.edmundintokyo said:
Another English-speaking option would be Edinburgh, assuming Scotland decides to stay in the EU.AlastairMeeks said:Dublin has the following drawbacks:
1) It's a small city
2) It's got awful transport
3) It's got a limited cultural life
But it will no doubt continue to siphon off financial services work. I think the "Jersey City" analogy is good.0 -
Most of those apply to Frankfurt. Especially the English language piece. The Germans have really adopted English in business.Richard_Nabavi said:
But it also has a lot of advantages over Paris, Frankfurt or Milan:AlastairMeeks said:Dublin has the following drawbacks:
1) It's a small city
2) It's got awful transport
3) It's got a limited cultural life
But it will no doubt continue to siphon off financial services work. I think the "Jersey City" analogy is good.
1) English language
2) Well-educated, outward-looking, well-motivated workforce
3) Flexible labour market
4) Existing outsourcing relationship with London
5) Low costs
6) English-style legal system
7) Existing experience of hosting big US corporations
So it might build on the 'Jersey City' function and gradually siphon off more higher-level stuff.0 -
That is not the point I was makingtaffys said:It is quite clear from a number of Leave posters that they are revelling in the fact that Brexit might cause huge economic problems in the EU and in some cases clearly hoping it destroys it altogether. In those circumstances it should hardly come as a surprise if the other 27 fight back with every means at their disposal.
If the EU's as good as you say it is, it should be able to survive a Brexit easily, surely.0 -
Yes, the City will certainly be relegated to the second division post-Brexit. But the Leavers have already made clear they despise 'the Bankers', so that's all grist to their mill.SouthamObserver said:
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?williamglenn said:
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
0 -
English is the best language in the world!
Consider: all but one of this year's 26 Eurovision songs were partly or wholly sung in English.0 -
@Casino_Royale Precisely Frankfurt's problem too.
I take @Richard_Nabavi's points about Dublin's advantages. Ultimately size (including the size of the country of Ireland) is going to be a serious constraint on Dublin in financial services.
I can see London and Dublin working a silent conspiracy to slit the throats of Frankfurt and Paris, with each needing the other.0 -
Either way: heard it all before. The City was going to be eviscerated and lost to Frankfurt if we didn't join the euro.MaxPB said:
I think the pitch is "less shit than Frankfurt, cheaper than London."Casino_Royale said:
Dublin: come and work here; it's a bit shit.AlastairMeeks said:Dublin has the following drawbacks:
1) It's a small city
2) It's got awful transport
3) It's got a limited cultural life
But it will no doubt continue to siphon off financial services work. I think the "Jersey City" analogy is good.
The City will be fine.0 -
Cheers.Morris_Dancer said:For those after classical history recommendations, a few more are here:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/classical-history-for-intermediates.html
p.s. Gibbon was 18th century, i think?0 -
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?SouthamObserver said:
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?williamglenn said:
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.0 -
Points 2, 3, 5 and 6 don't apply. Plus the Bundesbank is seen as quite hostile towards investment banking, or as they call it, casino banking.Jonathan said:
Most of those apply to Frankfurt. Especially the English language piece. The Germans have really adopted English in business.Richard_Nabavi said:
But it also has a lot of advantages over Paris, Frankfurt or Milan:AlastairMeeks said:Dublin has the following drawbacks:
1) It's a small city
2) It's got awful transport
3) It's got a limited cultural life
But it will no doubt continue to siphon off financial services work. I think the "Jersey City" analogy is good.
1) English language
2) Well-educated, outward-looking, well-motivated workforce
3) Flexible labour market
4) Existing outsourcing relationship with London
5) Low costs
6) English-style legal system
7) Existing experience of hosting big US corporations
So it might build on the 'Jersey City' function and gradually siphon off more higher-level stuff.0 -
So now principles are frightening. Your post sums up everything about the modern conservative party, they'll say anything and call it pragmatism and compromise, no wonder half of Cameron's MPs are openly defying him.Stark_Dawning said:
No, the moderate wing of Toryism is finished. The Tory hard-right sense blood. I can actually see IDS making a Nixon-like comeback as leader after all this. The fact that Leavers on here are gushing over remarks by Jeremy Corbyn shows how smitten they are with ideologues and how contemptuous they are of pragmatism and compromise. It's a frightening prospect.midwinter said:As a Tory voter and supporter of the PM I'm concerned about the aftermath of a Leave vote in electoral terms. Anyone who can keep Labour out of office for 10 years is doing fine as far as I can see. The parallels with the Major years are alarming from a Conservative point of view.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.0 -
''I can see London and Dublin working a silent conspiracy to slit the throats of Frankfurt and Paris, with each needing the other. ''
Paris and Frankfurt are quite capable of slitting their own throats.
We are talking about countries that are contemplating a Financial Transaction Tax, after all.0 -
Dublin also has a catastrophic housing crisis, a shortage of office space and really quite high personal tax rates. Having said if there was a real desire to relocate to Ireland, Cork or Limerick would work pretty effectively.AlastairMeeks said:@Casino_Royale Precisely Frankfurt's problem too.
I take @Richard_Nabavi's points about Dublin's advantages. Ultimately size (including the size of the country of Ireland) is going to be a serious constraint on Dublin in financial services.
I can see London and Dublin working a silent conspiracy to slit the throats of Frankfurt and Paris, with each needing the other.0 -
The City Brexit lot are looking to create the unregulated market I'm referring to. If we Leave I expect they would probably live with the compromise as it means no change plus they get to cast their net towards Asia a bit better.SouthamObserver said:
I am not sure that this is what those in the City angling for Brexit are looking for, or that it does much about returning sovereignty to the UK over a key part of our economy, but it does illustrate just how many compromises we will have to make to get a deal done.MaxPB said:
I think it would be an acceptable compromise, the EBA stays in London and we continue to accept ECB oversight of EUR trading in return we get the financial services passport. They win by not losing over half of EUR trading to an unregulated territory and we win by keeping the passport which a lot of smaller firms find useful.SouthamObserver said:
They will have zero oversight anyway and would have no ability to stop a move to any new kind of financial transaction in the City. What you are suggesting is that the EU retains oversight in return for passporting. Not sure that will play well.MaxPB said:
Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, to take one obvious example, Goldman Sachs currently has 6,500 staff in the EU. 6,000 of them are in the UK. Without EU passporting, they'll have to beef up their operations somewhere else within the EU. Over time, that will inevitably be at the expense of London.MaxPB said:
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.Richard_Nabavi said:The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
0 -
Funnily enough, I might have voted for the one that wasn't sung in English.Sunil_Prasannan said:English is the best language in the world!
Consider: all but one of this year's 26 Eurovision songs were partly or wholly sung in English.0 -
Mr. Herdson, I thought he was on the cusp, a bit like Dodge. A quick check reveals you're right and I'm completely wrong. I shall correct it posthaste and forthwith, cheers.0
-
The Austrian entry was sung in French for some reason...tlg86 said:
Funnily enough, I might have voted for the one that wasn't sung in English.Sunil_Prasannan said:English is the best language in the world!
Consider: all but one of this year's 26 Eurovision songs were partly or wholly sung in English.0 -
taffys said:
''We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.''
This would be a cracking point if we weren't the second biggest net contributor and a huge employer of European Citizens.
But we are. And he who pays the piper calls the tune, sunshine.
So drop and give us twenty.
Pretty much sums up the arrogance I was commenting on.0 -
And both are pretty poor. The existence of public transport does not of itself mean that they are excellent.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Area_Rapid_TransitAlastairMeeks said:Dublin has the following drawbacks:
2) It's got awful transport
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luas0 -
''Points 2, 3, 5 and 6 don't apply. Plus the Bundesbank is seen as quite hostile towards investment banking, or as they call it, casino banking. ''
Working as a trader in the City in the 1980s and 1990s, I know that predictions that Frankfurt and Paris were going to stuff London for financial services were common.
Look where we are now.0 -
How many people do u think switched to leave seeing Jamie Dimon with Osbourne?
What is he thinking? Not even London Likes the city of london.0 -
Nah...I'm anyone but Labour generally and the Tories are always the best way to achieve that. I don't think the Tories can win from the right against a half competent Labour leader and beating Corbyn from that position could lead to an annihilation in 2025. Pragmatism over idealism I'm afraid.PlatoSaid said:
I'm genuinely surprised that you vote Tory, I'd you down as Labour/Left LD.midwinter said:As a Tory voter and supporter of the PM I'm concerned about the aftermath of a Leave vote in electoral terms. Anyone who can keep Labour out of office for 10 years is doing fine as far as I can see. The parallels with the Major years are alarming from a Conservative point of view.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.
FWIW I agree with a lot of what Leave says re immigration but dislike the politicians supporting it and worry about the economy.0 -
'Corporation Tax Harmonisation' goes back at least to the 90s too.......taffys said:Working as a trader in the City in the 1980s and 1990s, I know that predictions that Frankfurt and Paris were going to stuff London for financial services were common.
Look where we are now.
0 -
Yes I think that's about right, we may lose some business to Dublin but I think the government will see that as more acceptable than losing it to Frankfurt or Paris. Dublin is massively constrained by the small size of the economy.AlastairMeeks said:@Casino_Royale Precisely Frankfurt's problem too.
I take @Richard_Nabavi's points about Dublin's advantages. Ultimately size (including the size of the country of Ireland) is going to be a serious constraint on Dublin in financial services.
I can see London and Dublin working a silent conspiracy to slit the throats of Frankfurt and Paris, with each needing the other.0 -
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/738023237922258944OllyT said:taffys said:''We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.''
This would be a cracking point if we weren't the second biggest net contributor and a huge employer of European Citizens.
But we are. And he who pays the piper calls the tune, sunshine.
So drop and give us twenty.
Pretty much sums up the arrogance I was commenting on.0 -
Not so sure it's arrogance. More a fact. I've no illusions of grandeur with this country but what I do resent is being part of something that started off as a common market and rapidly morphed into something quite different. The whole project has been dishonest.OllyT said:taffys said:''We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.''
This would be a cracking point if we weren't the second biggest net contributor and a huge employer of European Citizens.
But we are. And he who pays the piper calls the tune, sunshine.
So drop and give us twenty.
Pretty much sums up the arrogance I was commenting on.0 -
If Dublin overtakes London as a financial capital post-Brexit I wonder what that will do to the Ulster mindset. Surely they won't want to be hitched to a fading giant across the sea while they're bordering a global powerhouse. We could see Jerry Adams as Taoiseach of a united Ireland in our lifetime.AlastairMeeks said:@Casino_Royale Precisely Frankfurt's problem too.
I take @Richard_Nabavi's points about Dublin's advantages. Ultimately size (including the size of the country of Ireland) is going to be a serious constraint on Dublin in financial services.
I can see London and Dublin working a silent conspiracy to slit the throats of Frankfurt and Paris, with each needing the other.0 -
So you withdraw the remark "Some Leavers on here have said that Tory Remainers should be hunted 'like rats' by mobs with pitchforks" because you were just imagining it?Stark_Dawning said:
He is the PB Leavers' spiritual leader, so I imagine the sentiment is shared.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Who, other than SeanT?Stark_Dawning said:
I don't know. Some Leavers on here have said that Tory Remainers should be hunted 'like rats' by mobs with pitchforks. .williamglenn said:Meanwhile in a less bitter political fight...
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/02/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-imprisoned/
"I will say this, Hillary Clinton has got to go to jail," Trump told supporters here as he slammed Clinton's foreign policy speech earlier in the day in which Clinton called Trump dangerous and "temperamentally unfit" to be president.
"Folks, honestly, she's guilty as hell," Trump said of the Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of state.
Trump has previously accused Clinton of breaking federal law, but his comments on Thursday are his most direct call yet for Clinton to face jail time over her use of private email to conduct official State Department affairs.
0 -
The City lot would not get what they were after, in other words, and we would not have sovereignty - the EU and the ECB would continue to set the rules.MaxPB said:
The City Brexit lot are looking to create the unregulated market I'm referring to. If we Leave I expect they would probably live with the compromise as it means no change plus they get to cast their net towards Asia a bit better.SouthamObserver said:
I am not sure that this is what those in the City angling for Brexit are looking for, or that it does much about returning sovereignty to the UK over a key part of our economy, but it does illustrate just how many compromises we will have to make to get a deal done.MaxPB said:
I think it would be an acceptable compromise, the EBA stays in London and we continue to accept ECB oversight of EUR trading in return we get the financial services passport. They win by not losing over half of EUR trading to an unregulated territory and we win by keeping the passport which a lot of smaller firms find useful.SouthamObserver said:
They will have zero oversight anyway and would have no ability to stop a move to any new kind of financial transaction in the City. What you are suggesting is that the EU retains oversight in return for passporting. Not sure that will play well.MaxPB said:
Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, to take one obvious example, Goldman Sachs currently has 6,500 staff in the EU. 6,000 of them are in the UK. Without EU passporting, they'll have to beef up their operations somewhere else within the EU. Over time, that will inevitably be at the expense of London.MaxPB said:
I don't see how that is any different to now, the only thing that really changes is EUR denominates trades would be synthetically cleared the same as dollar denominated trades are.Richard_Nabavi said:The attitude of our EU friends towards us if we decide to leave will be identical to the attitude that the UK government would have had towards Scotland if they had decided to leave the UK: "Sorry to see you go, good luck, we need to discuss arrangements for an orderly departure, don't expect any special favours, and by the way we'll be trying to divert as much financial-services business away from you and towards us".
0 -
Doctor Who: Role was offered to black actor, says Steven Moffat
"I certainly don't think there's ever been a problem with making the Doctor black, which is why it should happen one day.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36442982
Again, the poor old Asian actor (as in Japanese, Chinese, etc) always overlooked when it comes to discussions of diversity...how about this shocking idea, casting good actors in leading roles. e.g. Adrian Lester good actor, Peter Capaldi good actor.0 -
Airbus UK. This is what I posted last night:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The wings are either flown from Broughton (North Wales) or shipped via Mostyn Docks (North Wales) to Toulouse. There can be no certainty that Airbus will not shift manufacture of the wings to France, Germany or Spain if we exit the EUfoxinsoxuk said:
Rolls Royce have plants in Berlin and Slovakia. Derby may well wither on the vine for investment.Patrick said:
Erm...the really complicated bits of a passenger jet are the engines, the wings and the cockpit/avionics/software. The engines and wings are made in Derby and Bristol respectively. (Engines by Rolls Royce as sub-contractor). Where would airbus suddenly move wing production to? A Leave decision would make zero difference to Airbus production from a business / technical point of view. The EU would be insane to add tariff cost to Airbus when a completed wing is flown to Toulouse from Bristol. It's a bullshit argument of the variety that Nick Clegg used to peddle. UK Airbus jobs are secure in or out of the EU.glw said:
Airbus is likely to move more manufacturing from the UK come what may. Leaving the EU would make some difference, but those jobs are only marginally safer if we remain.Scott_P said:If Airbus close the Bristol factory, can Nige explain to the workers how they can cash their Sovereignty cheques?
It never has been sensible to build wings in one country then ship them elsewhere to assemble, better to build near the final production line.
I want to jump in quickly to make a comment about Airbus UK. I think that people over-overestimating Airbus' commitment to Airbus UK. There are two reasons behind this. First, the emotional commitment to "Europe" within EADS/Airbus in its widest sense. Second, and this is important, there is no major UK shareholder in Airbus. UK is legacy from the BAE Systems position and the French, German and Spanish governments would be very keen to draw the UK operations to their country.
That's not to say that Airbus would immediately shift operations out if the UK. I don't think they would. But I do think that wings and structures for the A320 replacement would be designed and fabricated outside the UK. Ultimately, Hawarden and Filton would wither on the vine.
Leavers may be sanguine about that risk, and it's a view. I do think that my scenario is realistic though.0 -
No.TCPoliticalBetting said:
So you withdraw the remark "Some Leavers on here have said that Tory Remainers should be hunted 'like rats' by mobs with pitchforks" because you were just imagining it?Stark_Dawning said:
He is the PB Leavers' spiritual leader, so I imagine the sentiment is shared.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Who, other than SeanT?Stark_Dawning said:
I don't know. Some Leavers on here have said that Tory Remainers should be hunted 'like rats' by mobs with pitchforks. .williamglenn said:Meanwhile in a less bitter political fight...
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/02/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-imprisoned/
"I will say this, Hillary Clinton has got to go to jail," Trump told supporters here as he slammed Clinton's foreign policy speech earlier in the day in which Clinton called Trump dangerous and "temperamentally unfit" to be president.
"Folks, honestly, she's guilty as hell," Trump said of the Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of state.
Trump has previously accused Clinton of breaking federal law, but his comments on Thursday are his most direct call yet for Clinton to face jail time over her use of private email to conduct official State Department affairs.0 -
Employment rate I don't know without looking it up, but their unemployment rate is I think about twice ours. That has nothing to do with the supposed brilliance of George Osborne, of course, but more to do with Labour Market reforms introduced long before George Osborne ever came to office. Similar reforms were introduced in Germany by Schroeder and have had similar results. The French market is wholly unreformed and so unemployment is higher.currystar said:
Whats our unemployment rate compared to France?HurstLlama said:
*Whispers*TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not Dave's fault George Osborne is so awesome at his job and the economy is booming.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I'd hoped the tongue-in-cheek element of that was clear.
And it could be worse. I could be claiming we can control migration within the EU.
Plus, he did get, an "emergency brake" on migrants' in-work benefits for four years when there are "exceptional" levels of migration. The UK will be able to operate the brake for seven years
Psst, Darth Eagles, that deal has yet to be verified by the European parliament and there is no guarantee that they will do so. Also I think you'll find that the decision to operate the "brake" will be taken by the EU in Brussels not by the British government, who can only ask for it to be used. Control will remain with the EU not the British government. Please also see the definition of the word "Exceptional" for how it might be used in this case.
Also if the economy is booming why do we still have a massive annual deficit and dreadful trade figures? What happened to the march of the makers - manufacturing doesn't seem to be doing so well. For all the other issues that Osborne has failed on please see numerous posts by the likes of Mr. AlanBrooke going back over the last few years.
None of that has anything to do with the very real problems in the UK economy which Osborne has failed to sort out.0 -
If it has been so dishonest it's strange none of the other 27 are in the departure lounge.Razedabode said:
Not so sure it's arrogance. More a fact. I've no illusions of grandeur with this country but what I do resent is being part of something that started off as a common market and rapidly morphed into something quite different. The whole project has been dishonest.OllyT said:taffys said:''We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.''
This would be a cracking point if we weren't the second biggest net contributor and a huge employer of European Citizens.
But we are. And he who pays the piper calls the tune, sunshine.
So drop and give us twenty.
Pretty much sums up the arrogance I was commenting on.0 -
Have you been taking a legal high?Stark_Dawning said:
If Dublin overtakes London as a financial capital post-Brexit I wonder what that will do to the Ulster mindset. Surely they won't want to be hitched to a fading giant across the sea while they're bordering a global powerhouse. We could see Jerry Adams as Taoiseach of a united Ireland in our lifetime.AlastairMeeks said:@Casino_Royale Precisely Frankfurt's problem too.
I take @Richard_Nabavi's points about Dublin's advantages. Ultimately size (including the size of the country of Ireland) is going to be a serious constraint on Dublin in financial services.
I can see London and Dublin working a silent conspiracy to slit the throats of Frankfurt and Paris, with each needing the other.0 -
I'd like either Armstrong or Webb.FrancisUrquhart said:Doctor Who: Role was offered to black actor, says Steven Moffat
"I certainly don't think there's ever been a problem with making the Doctor black, which is why it should happen one day.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36442982
Again, the poor old Asian actor (as in Japanese, Chinese, etc) always overlooked when it comes to discussions of diversity...how about this shocking idea, casting good actors in leading roles. e.g. Adrian Lester good actor, Peter Capaldi good actor.0 -
I can't tell of you're trolling or genuinely stupid.Stark_Dawning said:
If Dublin overtakes London as a financial capital post-Brexit I wonder what that will do to the Ulster mindset. Surely they won't want to be hitched to a fading giant across the sea while they're bordering a global powerhouse. We could see Jerry Adams as Taoiseach of a united Ireland in our lifetime.AlastairMeeks said:@Casino_Royale Precisely Frankfurt's problem too.
I take @Richard_Nabavi's points about Dublin's advantages. Ultimately size (including the size of the country of Ireland) is going to be a serious constraint on Dublin in financial services.
I can see London and Dublin working a silent conspiracy to slit the throats of Frankfurt and Paris, with each needing the other.0 -
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?SouthamObserver said:
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?williamglenn said:
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.0 -
Families of Iraq War dead will have to pay £767 for full Chilcot report
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/03/families-of-iraq-war-dead-will-have-to-pay-767-for-full-chilcot/0 -
A couple of hefty election defeats will bring them back to their senses. IDS has been an intellectual lightweight and voter repellent for his entire career. Pretty sure even the craziest of Leavers won't be pressing his claims too hard.Stark_Dawning said:
No, the moderate wing of Toryism is finished. The Tory hard-right sense blood. I can actually see IDS making a Nixon-like comeback as leader after all this. The fact that Leavers on here are gushing over remarks by Jeremy Corbyn shows how smitten they are with ideologues and how contemptuous they are of pragmatism and compromise. It's a frightening prospect.midwinter said:As a Tory voter and supporter of the PM I'm concerned about the aftermath of a Leave vote in electoral terms. Anyone who can keep Labour out of office for 10 years is doing fine as far as I can see. The parallels with the Major years are alarming from a Conservative point of view.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.0 -
The fieldwork ended a fortnight ago
There are less than three weeks until Britain votes on whether it should remain in the European Union and one side of the debate is heading into the June 23 referendum with much more confidence than the other.
British research company Populus has released data which shows that the overwhelming majority of people who intend to vote Remain expect to be on the winning side (85%).
Brexiteers are nowhere near as optimistic. In fact, the majority of respondents who plan to vote for a Brexit don't believe that it's going to happen.
As the chart below illustrates, the majority of Leave-ers (48%) expect to be on the losing side when the result is announced in the early hours of Friday 24 June.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/populus-brits-expect-remain-to-win-eu-referendum-2016-60 -
Beware the boy who cried wolf.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?SouthamObserver said:
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?williamglenn said:
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.0 -
Slightly off topic, I'd conclude that purdah (so far) is making a difference. This week has felt far more balanced than last.
Leavers should thank the rebels who forced the Government to concede on this point when the Referendum Act was going through.0 -
Considering the majority are net recipients its not that strange. Don't bite the hand that feeds you and all that.OllyT said:
If it has been so dishonest it's strange none of the other 27 are in the departure lounge.Razedabode said:
Not so sure it's arrogance. More a fact. I've no illusions of grandeur with this country but what I do resent is being part of something that started off as a common market and rapidly morphed into something quite different. The whole project has been dishonest.OllyT said:taffys said:''We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.''
This would be a cracking point if we weren't the second biggest net contributor and a huge employer of European Citizens.
But we are. And he who pays the piper calls the tune, sunshine.
So drop and give us twenty.
Pretty much sums up the arrogance I was commenting on.
I'd rather look after the needy here first, you might think that strange too.0 -
You really think if our unemployment rate was 15% that Osborne wouldn't be getting the blame. Your comment is the biggest problem any Government has. When things are good it is nothing to do with them, when things are bad it is all their fault.HurstLlama said:
Employment rate I don't know without looking it up, but their unemployment rate is I think about twice ours. That has nothing to do with the supposed brilliance of George Osborne, of course, but more to do with Labour Market reforms introduced long before George Osborne ever came to office. Similar reforms were introduced in Germany by Schroeder and have had similar results. The French market is wholly unreformed and so unemployment is higher.currystar said:
Whats our unemployment rate compared to France?HurstLlama said:
*Whispers*TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not Dave's fault George Osborne is so awesome at his job and the economy is booming.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I'd hoped the tongue-in-cheek element of that was clear.
And it could be worse. I could be claiming we can control migration within the EU.
Plus, he did get, an "emergency brake" on migrants' in-work benefits for four years when there are "exceptional" levels of migration. The UK will be able to operate the brake for seven years
Psst, Darth Eagles, that deal has yet to be verified by the European parliament and there is no guarantee that they will do so. Also I think you'll find that the decision to operate the "brake" will be taken by the EU in Brussels not by the British government, who can only ask for it to be used. Control will remain with the EU not the British government. Please also see the definition of the word "Exceptional" for how it might be used in this case.
Also if the economy is booming why do we still have a massive annual deficit and dreadful trade figures? What happened to the march of the makers - manufacturing doesn't seem to be doing so well. For all the other issues that Osborne has failed on please see numerous posts by the likes of Mr. AlanBrooke going back over the last few years.
None of that has anything to do with the very real problems in the UK economy which Osborne has failed to sort out.0 -
In that story the wolf did eventually come.FrankBooth said:
Beware the boy who cried wolf.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?SouthamObserver said:
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?williamglenn said:
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.0 -
...and all 27 other members are overwhelming positive about the EU, no?OllyT said:
If it has been so dishonest it's strange none of the other 27 are in the departure lounge.Razedabode said:
Not so sure it's arrogance. More a fact. I've no illusions of grandeur with this country but what I do resent is being part of something that started off as a common market and rapidly morphed into something quite different. The whole project has been dishonest.OllyT said:taffys said:''We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.''
This would be a cracking point if we weren't the second biggest net contributor and a huge employer of European Citizens.
But we are. And he who pays the piper calls the tune, sunshine.
So drop and give us twenty.
Pretty much sums up the arrogance I was commenting on.0 -
''That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback. ''
The advantage the City has is, in the end, its can-do mercantile internationalist spirit.
0 -
And Lord Lucan might be back as Chancellor of the Exchequer.Stark_Dawning said:
If Dublin overtakes London as a financial capital post-Brexit I wonder what that will do to the Ulster mindset. Surely they won't want to be hitched to a fading giant across the sea while they're bordering a global powerhouse. We could see Jerry Adams as Taoiseach of a united Ireland in our lifetime.AlastairMeeks said:@Casino_Royale Precisely Frankfurt's problem too.
I take @Richard_Nabavi's points about Dublin's advantages. Ultimately size (including the size of the country of Ireland) is going to be a serious constraint on Dublin in financial services.
I can see London and Dublin working a silent conspiracy to slit the throats of Frankfurt and Paris, with each needing the other.0 -
Who said that the City would collapse? It seems that the consensus on here is that in the Brexit negotiations the UK will cede regulatory control of the City (ie UK sovereignty) to the EU in order to keep things pretty much as they are. I wonder how many other areas we will end up doing this in.david_herdson said:
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?SouthamObserver said:
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?williamglenn said:
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.
0 -
The advantage of the City over Paris is that our French bankers are better than their French bankers.0
