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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections : June 2nd 2016 (Referendum Day -21 days

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  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    But I honestly wonder how many will then vote Remain in spite of mocking Cameron. I think there is a general mocking of ALL politicians with a very few rare exceptions and I am not really sure how much individuals drive the vote in these sort of referendums.

    As an example a lot of people who voted for Independence in Scotland were not fans of Salmond.
    I think the one big difference between the EU referendum and the Scottish referendum is that there is still some sense of patriotism towards the United Kingdom and its shared history and legacy amongst those who supported remains in the union whereas there is no sense of patriotism towards the EU or any love for it. There is no sense of loyalty towards it from the British people whereas there was a sense of loyalty towards the UK in the Scottish referendum this is why I think this referendum will be not what people expect and I think LEAVE are in with a real chance of getting over the finishing line
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    edited June 2016

    What she actually said, assuming your translation is accurate, fair enough, but why did she feel she needed to say it? Why did the Chancellor of Germany decide to put her oar into a UK debate? There is a question worth thinking about.
    Well, one, someone probably asked her. But two, she has an interest, a very substantial interest, in the steps being taken by one of Germany's very largest trading partners. Once again the Indyref comes to mind. The idea that what Scotland decided was none of England's business was always demented because we have a Union. We also have a Union, of sorts, with the rest of the EU.

    What is far more disappointing is how little value was put on that Union when Cameron was trying to negotiate a package that he could sell to the British people. That is looking like a serious mistake.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    For it to operate in that way with any longevity it also needs an outside guarantor of security. It's dangerously complacent to think that the US will play that role in perpetuity, particularly given recent developments.
    No, its constituent countries need to maintain armed forces and as they have a common interest they are likely to act together when they feel collectively threatened. NATO fills that role as the US & Canada currently feels they have an interest, but if they no longer play there is nothing stopping us carrying on.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Question Time: Owen Jones and Neil Hamilton competing to see who can give the best bedroom eyes in their introductions.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    weejonnie said:

    Britain will always be in Europe - but we are certainly not better off overall in the EU - if you look at the slogan you will see that even the name for the Remain Campaign is wrong and misleading.

    Even if you believe that you have to add the proviso 'all else being equal', which it won't be forever.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Jobabob said:

    Fox

    England are 9/1 to fail to qualify.

    Fill your boots!!

    The Bilderberg Group will not allow Engxit before 23rd June.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Mr. Owls, I don't know about the TV stuff as I never watch the thing, but I disagree that this site has become over confident on Brexit. Those of us who are Leavers may be slightly more hopeful, maybe even optimistic, than we were (and your news has something to do with that, aside from the other events) but far from confident let alone over confident.
    The majority of journalists are left-wing and hence pro-Europe - what else do you think they would say????
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,767
    I think far more votes are still up for grabs (in both directions) than people realise.

    Look where the EU comes in the MORI issues index. It's an issue the vast majority of people haven't cared much about and haven't thought much about.

    It may be that people are giving a positive - ie Remain or Leave - answer to pollsters. But people don't like saying Don't Know and I suspect even those who think they have decided may change - because views are not embedded in the same way as, for example, Party voting intention.

    So, in my view, anything could happen.
  • No, not really. A lot of common safety standards come from the WTO, by consensus for example.
    It's not just safety standards. The last example that I came across in my work is the colour coding for different types of bottled gas. This is standardised in the EU: white for oxygen, red for hydrogen, etc., but varies around the rest of the world. There are countless examples of such standardisation at the EU level, which, in general, benefits the industries involved.

    The level of standardisation in the European single market goes way beyond the remit of the WTO.
  • nunu said:

    I don't get the felling Nigel is THAT toxic for leave, just as Cameron's ratings might be bad in the polls but still comes over well. Polling doesn't always (never?) tells you the whole story.
    Farage is trusted by more voters than Cameron.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    But surely a single market requires a legislative body charged with harmonising technical and trading standards between its members. Otherwise it's not a single market, just a trading association.
    Most of that work is already done at a level above the Single market.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    But surely a single market requires a legislative body charged with harmonising technical and trading standards between its members. Otherwise it's not a single market, just a trading association.
    That comes from the WTO mostly though where they do things by consensus.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Bizarrely McDonnell actually has some ideas.

    George not so much
    Oddly enough, Mr. Brooke, I actually read some of the stuff that McDonnell has been coming out with on the economic front and found to my surprise there was a fair amount that I agreed with and a bit more that, whilst I didn't like it, I could live with. If the fellow didn't have such awful baggage he might get more of a hearing - his ideas deserve that at least.

    I'd never vote for the bastard, though, or his boss. Their association with, and seeming affection for, murders is not forgivable for me.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Even if you believe that you have to add the proviso 'all else being equal', which it won't be forever.
    The phrase cuts both ways. Except that 'all else being equal' doesn't apply since Europe was in theory (before being derailed on 23rd June) heading for ever closer Union. So things will certainly not be equal.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,938
    PlatoSaid said:

    'What comes first WW3 or the global Brexit recession?' Faisal Islam delivers knockout to Cameron in EU debate

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/what-comes-first-ww3-global-8104500

    It is generally accepted by the media that there were no 'knockout blows' tonight and that DC did reasonably well despite the hostility of the audience. Gove tomorrow will be very interesting
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    I watched the other warm ups, and watched the faces of the players on and off the pitch. They looked confused by what they were asked to do. Kane is a great header of the ball, but taking the free kicks for example. Wales should top the group.
    I agree about the insanity of Kane taking free kicks. I also think Wales will do well, but I reckon we'll beat them.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,938

    No. More so, as it will make elections actually mean something.
    Monitoring the movement of the pound from mid afternoon could be the key
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Wanderer said:

    I'm sure your right. Many people will vote Leave who find Farage repulsive. Leave wouldn't have a prayer if that weren't the case.
    Indeed, I find Farage toxic too.
  • weejonnie said:



    Britain will always be in Europe - but we are certainly not better off overall in the EU - if you look at the slogan you will see that even the name for the Remain Campaign is wrong and misleading.

    I will agree to disagree with you. I'm not looking for an argument - I was just merely illustrating the point that I am a Remainer who believes that Leave will win.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    This is a measure of how confident I am about the referendum:

    A few days ago I went to the Britain Stronger in Europe online shop to choose a t-shirt. I liked the one with the simple slogan "I'm In" the best... But if we leave the EU then I'd not be able to go on wearing it without looking really daft - as, obviously, I'd not be "in" at that point. So I opted for a "Britian Stronger in Europe" slogan t-shirt instead. It's not as nice as the other one but I can can keep on wearing it even if we leave the EU as the slogan will still be a statement of principle and belief. :D

    Welcome back Steven. Nice to see you contributing again. Obviously I hope Leave win but I will be genuinely sorry for you in that case as I have always admired your commitment to an ideal you believe in.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    No, its constituent countries need to maintain armed forces and as they have a common interest they are likely to act together when they feel collectively threatened. NATO fills that role as the US & Canada currently feels they have an interest, but if they no longer play there is nothing stopping us carrying on.
    Sure, there's nothing stopping us carrying on, but when there's no NATO, and Germany's hard power is obliged to match its economic power while there's a Russian menace on the periphery and no political coherence to the unity of the democratic states, I don't think that scenario ends well.

    Pre-World War I there was plenty of economic interdependence but it didn't prevent that tragedy from occurring.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    What she actually said, assuming your translation is accurate, fair enough, but why did she feel she needed to say it? Why did the Chancellor of Germany decide to put her oar into a UK debate? There is a question worth thinking about.
    I think someone asked her a question and she answered it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,938

    Indeed, I find Farage toxic too.
    Farage is totally toxic - just a pub bore
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    No. More so, as it will make elections actually mean something.
    It will probably be more exciting simply because a Leave vote spells unfixable disaster. But the referendum should not be happening.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    I quite like Liz Truss - but someone ought to tell her that her holding thumb and fore finger together when making every point is far too distracting for a TV appearance.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,417
    Danny565 said:

    Question Time: Owen Jones and Neil Hamilton competing to see who can give the best bedroom eyes in their introductions.

    Question Time is like doing a jigsaw. A pointless way to pass the time until you die!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The Question Time panel is populated by the Westminster Stepford Wives.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    Wanderer said:

    The Bilderberg Group will not allow Engxit before 23rd June.
    Can anyone in the Bilderberg Group cross a ball? If not I fear the matter may be beyond even their control.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    Jobabob said:

    It will probably be more exciting simply because a Leave vote spells unfixable disaster. But the referendum should not be happening.
    I'll put you down as undecided, then....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    Mortimer said:

    I quite like Liz Truss - but someone ought to tell her that her holding thumb and fore finger together when making every point is far too distracting for a TV appearance.

    Just as long as she doesn't start ranting about cheese...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,417
    Three weeks to save the EU!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238



    It's not just safety standards. The last example that I came across in my work is the colour coding for different types of bottled gas. This is standardised in the EU: white for oxygen, red for hydrogen, etc., but varies around the rest of the world. There are countless examples of such standardisation at the EU level, which, in general, benefits the industries involved.

    The level of standardisation in the European single market goes way beyond the remit of the WTO.

    There are also examples where the EU has produced standards which are downright dangerous. An example I have discussed in the past with Mr Twisted on here is fire extinguishers where the EU standard now makes it far more difficult to tell from a distance what type of fire extinguisher is hanging on a wall. The rest of the world has a much better system.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183

    Just as long as she doesn't start ranting about cheese...
    Or pork markets


  • Welcome back Steven. Nice to see you contributing again. Obviously I hope Leave win but I will be genuinely sorry for you in that case as I have always admired your commitment to an ideal you believe in.

    Good evening, Richard. :) I hope you're well - it's nice to interact with you again. It's good to be back here - the break I took was, I think, much needed though. :)

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Mortimer said:

    Does anyone have a prediction for the day that the exchanges magically make LEAVE the favourite. I remember seeing Corbo's odds tumbling in one afternoon/evening last year and cashing out too soon....

    That is hard - but the people betting on leave are those generally with not too much money, having had their wages squeezed by excessive EU (and non EU) immigration.

    It still seems incredible that the odds are 11/4 against - when the online polls aren't picking up the C2DEs who have no computers or use them for other things - and who may not now have landlines just PAYG mobiles and so are slipping through the phone pollers.
  • That comes from the WTO mostly though where they do things by consensus.
    Not sure what happened there, but I already replied to this below. See my example concerning the colour coding of gas bottles: defined by legislation in the EU, varies around the rest of the world. These are the sort of technical standards that make it easier to trade within the EU.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    It's not just safety standards. The last example that I came across in my work is the colour coding for different types of bottled gas. This is standardised in the EU: white for oxygen, red for hydrogen, etc., but varies around the rest of the world. There are countless examples of such standardisation at the EU level, which, in general, benefits the industries involved.

    The level of standardisation in the European single market goes way beyond the remit of the WTO.
    Yeah ....they standardised the colours of the fire extinguishers so you can't see at a distance what type they are. Way to go....

    The EU always fixes things when they ain't broke that's their problem. Oh and unelected faceless bureaucrats moving parliaments every month at the cost of millions.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    I thought this was a spoof then I realised it is actually the Mail's front page tomorrow:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/738487543595962368
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited June 2016
    DavidL said:

    Can anyone in the Bilderberg Group cross a ball? If not I fear the matter may be beyond even their control.
    Ed Balls is on the board of Norwich City.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    It's not just safety standards. The last example that I came across in my work is the colour coding for different types of bottled gas. This is standardised in the EU: white for oxygen, red for hydrogen, etc., but varies around the rest of the world. There are countless examples of such standardisation at the EU level, which, in general, benefits the industries involved.

    The level of standardisation in the European single market goes way beyond the remit of the WTO.
    It may well do, but is all of that actually necessary?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,417
    chestnut said:

    The Question Time panel is populated by the Westminster Stepford Wives.

    Katharine Ross starred in that, and she's in Donnie Darko right now (Freeview 70)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    welshowl said:

    Ed Balls is on the board of Norwich City.
    Is he still invited? He's not even the power behind the Labour leadership throne now.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    weejonnie said:

    That is hard - but the people betting on leave are those generally with not too much money, having had their wages squeezed by excessive EU (and non EU) immigration.

    It still seems incredible that the odds are 11/4 against - when the online polls aren't picking up the C2DEs who have no computers or use them for other things - and who may not now have landlines just PAYG mobiles and so are slipping through the phone pollers.
    Pollsters do demographic sampling and/or weighting so they won't be missing C2DEs in general. In theory it's possible there could be a low-communications subgroup within those demographics that leans more Leave than the rest, but I don't think there's any evidence for that.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Question Time Shocker- questioner asks very sensible question.

    Unfortunately, idiots on panel get to reply.

    Liz Truss is fairly pathetic, Neil Hamilton and Frank Field worse.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Ooooo... Claws!

    US presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton has warned that electing Donald Trump would be a "historic mistake".

    Speaking in San Diego, California, the Democratic front-runner launched her most blistering attack yet on her likely Republican rival in November's White House election. The former Secretary of State assailed Mr Trump's foreign policy pronouncements, saying: "He is temperamentally unfit to hold an office that requires knowledge, stability and immense responsibility.

    "This is not someone who should ever have the nuclear codes."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1706049/clinton-says-trump-must-not-have-nuclear-codes
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    I will agree to disagree with you. I'm not looking for an argument - I was just merely illustrating the point that I am a Remainer who believes that Leave will win.

    OK - nice to be honest. Regrettably my T-shirt becomes obsolete on 24th June.
  • There are also examples where the EU has produced standards which are downright dangerous. An example I have discussed in the past with Mr Twisted on here is fire extinguishers where the EU standard now makes it far more difficult to tell from a distance what type of fire extinguisher is hanging on a wall. The rest of the world has a much better system.
    Then there is changing the colour of Wiring. AC went from red/black to blue/brown.

    Positive earthed d.c. used in telecoms etc went from blue black to grey blue. Unfortunately where blue was -48v it is now 0v. Its also illegal to use the old wiring colour on mods to existing installations so blue can be either neutral or live. Brilliant.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    Sure, there's nothing stopping us carrying on, but when there's no NATO, and Germany's hard power is obliged to match its economic power while there's a Russian menace on the periphery and no political coherence to the unity of the democratic states, I don't think that scenario ends well.

    Pre-World War I there was plenty of economic interdependence but it didn't prevent that tragedy from occurring.
    In all honesty if NATO were gone there is absolutely nothing the Europeans could do to compensate for that as far as the potential threat from Russia is concerned. With the exception of the UK and France no country in Europe (either inside or outside the EU) seems to be willing to spend anywhere near what is necessary to maintain the security of our continent without American support. It is a measure of how important a US backed NATO is to our peace that there is no way the EU or any other body could ever compensate for its loss.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,938
    MP_SE said:

    I thought this was a spoof then I realised it is actually the Mail's front page tomorrow:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/738487543595962368

    Mail is out in a big way and has lost any pretence to balance but the Mail on Sunday seems in. The Mail is only delivered because of my wife's liking of the crosswords. Otherwise it would be changed for the Express which seems much fairer !!!!!!!
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Three weeks to save the EU!

    Three weeks to save Europe from the EU.

    There! Corrected it for you.
  • It may well do, but is all of that actually necessary?
    Well, I guess it's not necessary in the sense that we could live without it, but it does make trading a whole lot easier and, generally, safer. There are few things in life that are absolutely necessary.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Monitoring the movement of the pound from mid afternoon could be the key
    I've been monitoring the movement of the pound and indeed the markets for the last 10 years. Since 2008, they've been on crack.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Sure, there's nothing stopping us carrying on, but when there's no NATO, and Germany's hard power is obliged to match its economic power while there's a Russian menace on the periphery and no political coherence to the unity of the democratic states, I don't think that scenario ends well.

    Pre-World War I there was plenty of economic interdependence but it didn't prevent that tragedy from occurring.
    The biggest issue is that currently no one in Europe (apart from Greece) want's to spend the money on defence. That is what putting a strain on NATO.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    chestnut said:

    Question Time Shocker- questioner asks very sensible question.

    Unfortunately, idiots on panel get to reply.

    Liz Truss is fairly pathetic, Neil Hamilton and Frank Field worse.

    I thought it couldn't get worse, but Owen whatshisface pipes up.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,938

    I've been monitoring the movement of the pound and indeed the markets for the last 10 years. Since 2008, they've been on crack.
    Believe the speculators are spending £500,000 on their own private exit poll
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    Owen Jones trying to demonise BoJo is frankly hilarious.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Jobabob said:

    It will probably be more exciting simply because a Leave vote spells unfixable disaster. But the referendum should not be happening.
    It should be happening. We will have to agree to differ on that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,246
    Moses_ said:

    Yeah ....they standardised the colours of the fire extinguishers so you can't see at a distance what type they are. Way to go....

    The EU always fixes things when they ain't broke that's their problem. Oh and unelected faceless bureaucrats moving parliaments every month at the cost of millions.
    Yep.

    FIre extinguishers used to be red, cream, black, blue or green and then are now red, red, red, red or red with small coloured patches iirc.
    http://www.mfs-fire-extinguishers.co.uk/types.htm

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,938
    Mortimer said:

    Owen Jones trying to demonise BoJo is frankly hilarious.

    Thought Boris does that himself
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Mortimer said:

    Does anyone have a prediction for the day that the exchanges magically make LEAVE the favourite. I remember seeing Corbo's odds tumbling in one afternoon/evening last year and cashing out too soon....

    I think if another phone poll showed a Leave lead its price would head fast towards 2ish and it would go odds-on if there was further confirmation.

    Of course the online polls haven't moved so far but they could.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Then there is changing the colour of Wiring. AC went from red/black to blue/brown.

    Positive earthed d.c. used in telecoms etc went from blue black to grey blue. Unfortunately where blue was -48v it is now 0v. Its also illegal to use the old wiring colour on mods to existing installations so blue can be either neutral or live. Brilliant.
    In the UK you are not allowed sockets in the bathrooms with exception of shaver sockets. In Europe you can. Quite often these sockets are over sinks and I have even seen them positioned next to the bath.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Just as long as she doesn't start ranting about cheese...
    She's already done that. Apparently they employ lots of EU migrants who would lose their jobs if we left...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183

    Thought Boris does that himself
    Nah - he is not a disliked figure, generally.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,313
    weejonnie said:

    That is hard - but the people betting on leave are those generally with not too much money, having had their wages squeezed by excessive EU (and non EU) immigration.

    It still seems incredible that the odds are 11/4 against - when the online polls aren't picking up the C2DEs who have no computers or use them for other things - and who may not now have landlines just PAYG mobiles and so are slipping through the phone pollers.
    Saw an advert today for a mobile-phone receptionist service - all your callers speak first to them & only the ones you want to speak to get put through. Rules out cold-callers.
  • TimTim Posts: 44
    Anyone who thinks the pound is going to move during the day doesn't know what they're talking about.

    The pattern of people voting during polling hours varies dramatically (simplifying massively, workers in the morning, non-workers in the day, workers in the evening). On top of that, we don't have previous referenda to compare voting patterns to, among these groups. It's not like GEs.

    So, what will an exit poll taken at 2pm actually mean? Not much is the answer.

    One taken at 6pm or 7pm may mean something, but if you factor in (at least) a 1 hour turnaround time from polling data collection through to analysis and then feedback to the client it doesn't leave much time for a play on the currency markets.

    If people seriously believe there'd be a play on the currency markets which would then feedback in the media to people who have yet to vote, and yet to decide how to vote, in the final hours of polling, then they are living in PB bubble fantasy land.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    We do not pay 2% of our GDP to NATO.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    No. More so, as it will make elections actually mean something.
    What precisely does this one mean, Mr White? I did say "precisely".....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    Tim said:

    Anyone who thinks the pound is going to move during the day doesn't know what they're talking about.

    The pattern of people voting during polling hours varies dramatically (simplifying massively, workers in the morning, non-workers in the day, workers in the evening). On top of that, we don't have previous referenda to compare voting patterns to, among these groups. It's not like GEs.

    So, what will an exit poll taken at 2pm actually mean? Not much is the answer.

    One taken at 6pm or 7pm may mean something, but if you factor in (at least) a 1 hour turnaround time from polling data collection through to analysis and then feedback to the client it doesn't leave much time for a play on the currency markets.

    If people seriously believe there'd be a play on the currency markets which would then feedback in the media to people who have yet to vote, and yet to decide how to vote, in the final hours of polling, then they are living in PB bubble fantasy land.

    Bang on.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,938
    Mortimer said:

    Nah - he is not a disliked figure, generally.
    Maybe but he is not a PM in waiting
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027

    This is a measure of how confident I am about the referendum:

    A few days ago I went to the Britain Stronger in Europe online shop to choose a t-shirt. I liked the one with the simple slogan "I'm In" the best... But if we leave the EU then I'd not be able to go on wearing it without looking really daft - as, obviously, I'd not be "in" at that point. So I opted for a "Britian Stronger in Europe" slogan t-shirt instead. It's not as nice as the other one but I can can keep on wearing it even if we leave the EU as the slogan will still be a statement of principle and belief. :D

    If Leave win I'll be commissioning my "Don't Blame Me I voted Remain" T-shirt and I reckon I'll be wearing it by Christmas!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    She's already done that. Apparently they employ lots of EU migrants who would lose their jobs if we left...
    Is it a disgrace? :-)
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Thought Boris does that himself
    Boris wins in Labour London.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Moses_ said:

    Ooooo... Claws!

    "This is not someone who should ever have the nuclear codes."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1706049/clinton-says-trump-must-not-have-nuclear-codes

    Yeah right. Let her have them. They'd be perfectly safe on her Blackberry, or on her home-brew setup...

    "What's the problem? The secret service were stationed outside the door to the basement at all times..."

    Unfit doesn't even begin to describe it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    Wanderer said:

    I think if another phone poll showed a Leave lead its price would head fast towards 2ish and it would go odds-on if there was further confirmation.

    Of course the online polls haven't moved so far but they could.
    Yeah - my feeling is that a different pollster needs to show a decent swing to Leave too...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238
    edited June 2016
    MattW said:



    Yep.

    FIre extinguishers used to be red, cream, black, blue or green and then are now red, red, red, red or red with small coloured patches iirc.
    http://www.mfs-fire-extinguishers.co.uk/types.htm

    I have to do a regular firefighting course as part of my offshore training and no matter how long ago this change was introduced it is still mentioned with scorn by the firefighters on every single course.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    The biggest issue is that currently no one in Europe (apart from Greece) want's to spend the money on defence. That is what putting a strain on NATO.
    Something that troubles me about the US-pulls-out scenario (which we have to plan for) is that if we leave the EU we will have next to no soft power in Europe. And without us I don't see a European defensive alliance working.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited June 2016
    Liz sits on councils.

    Sounds suspiciously like some no-mark who judges their effectiveness by how many meetings she attends.

    Frank Field is hopeless as a communicator however.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2016
    Moses_ said:

    In the UK you are not allowed sockets in the bathrooms with exception of shaver sockets. In Europe you can. Quite often these sockets are over sinks and I have even seen them positioned next to the bath.
    I stayed in a place in India with the main fusebox complete with naked wiring in the shower.

    I washed very carefully!
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Well, I guess it's not necessary in the sense that we could live without it, but it does make trading a whole lot easier and, generally, safer. There are few things in life that are absolutely necessary.
    Would you like some examples of completely bonkers regulations? There are loads.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    Why do politicians bring up fisheries policies for a pro-EU stance.

    It is just foolish.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Rushmoor Aldershot Park Labour hold

    Lab 525 UKIP 314 Con 264 Green 41

    Result May 2015

    Con 1153 Lab 1065 UKIP 840
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The public appear to be better qualified than the panel.

  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Believe the speculators are spending £500,000 on their own private exit poll
    And how am I going to tell over the usual crack induced movements? Scott P keeps on posting when there is a correlation with the polls but it isn't necessarily so.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited June 2016

    In all honesty if NATO were gone there is absolutely nothing the Europeans could do to compensate for that as far as the potential threat from Russia is concerned. With the exception of the UK and France no country in Europe (either inside or outside the EU) seems to be willing to spend anywhere near what is necessary to maintain the security of our continent without American support. It is a measure of how important a US backed NATO is to our peace that there is no way the EU or any other body could ever compensate for its loss.
    Well it is obviously possible for the EU or perhaps a European Defence Organisation to step up to the mark. The first hurdle would be getting the European countries to actually spend the money needed for their defence. Some never have, none are currently (including, to our shame, the UK) and none ever will. The next problem is actually getting them to fight, even NATO, cannot do this. Belgium wouldn't even sell us artillery shells for use in Gulf War 1, because they were scared of reprisals (there was a famous Matt cartoon at the time) and the European countries response to the NATO missions in the Balkans and Afghanistan have been variable to say the least.

    So it is not impossible for Europe to compensate for a collapse of NATO, just that the political will is not there and never will be there to do so.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    RodCrosby said:

    Yeah right. Let her have them. They'd be perfectly safe on her Blackberry, or on her home-brew setup...

    "What's the problem? The secret service were stationed outside the door to the basement at all times..."

    Unfit doesn't even begin to describe it.
    It's ok. If she clicks 'nuke' by mistake her staff can all plead the Fifth.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/bryan-pagliano-fifth-amendment-223796
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,729
    edited June 2016

    I have to do a regular firefighting course as art of my offshore training and no matter how long ago this change was introduced it is still mentioned with scorn by the firefighters on every single course.
    I don't know, but I imagine the rationale for this was that the vast majority of the population are not aware of which colour stands for which type of extinguisher, but would immediately recognise red as a fire extinguisher. There is a risk with other colours that a member of the general public (British or foreign) might not even recognise the device to be a fire extinguisher.

    There will always be room to dispute with any standardisation decisions, but the general principle of standardisation to facilitate trade and safety still stands. This is the foundation of the single market.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    chestnut said:

    The public appear to be better qualified than the panel.

    I've been pretty impressed by most vox pops asking questions/making observations
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Rushmoor Aldershot Park Labour hold

    Lab 525 UKIP 314 Con 264 Green 41

    Result May 2015

    Con 1153 Lab 1065 UKIP 840

    That's a Lab gain, no?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chestnut said:

    The public appear to be better qualified than the panel.

    PC woman coming over well. Neil Hamilton should be shot!
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Mortimer said:

    We do not pay 2% of our GDP to NATO.

    Did anyone say we did? We don't pay much at all into NATO. We are supposed to spend 2% on defence as part of NATO (which we do, once the books have been simmered for a sufficiently long period)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,970
    Tim said:

    Anyone who thinks the pound is going to move during the day doesn't know what they're talking about.

    The pattern of people voting during polling hours varies dramatically (simplifying massively, workers in the morning, non-workers in the day, workers in the evening). On top of that, we don't have previous referenda to compare voting patterns to, among these groups. It's not like GEs.

    So, what will an exit poll taken at 2pm actually mean? Not much is the answer.

    One taken at 6pm or 7pm may mean something, but if you factor in (at least) a 1 hour turnaround time from polling data collection through to analysis and then feedback to the client it doesn't leave much time for a play on the currency markets.

    If people seriously believe there'd be a play on the currency markets which would then feedback in the media to people who have yet to vote, and yet to decide how to vote, in the final hours of polling, then they are living in PB bubble fantasy land.

    I believe at one point an American financial house paid for a several-miles-long fibre-optic cable in an exact-straight-line (compensating for the earth's curvature) instead of the normal routing because they wanted to minimise speed-of-light delay.

    Anecdotally, the 80's a surprising amount of mainframes were sold to Colombia, because the cartels wanted the best computers even though they were *wildly* over spec.

    Rich people who don't know much about the detail but want it fast, cope with things by throwing money at experts until they under perform. A rolling exit poll might not actually be that useful but they will pay for a small advantage.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183

    I don't know, but I imagine the rationale for this was that the vast majority of the population are not aware of which colour stands for which type of extinguisher, but would immediately recognise red as a fire extinguisher. There is a risk with other colours that a member of the general public (British or foreign) might not even recognise the device to be a fire extinguisher.

    There will always be room to dispute any standardisation decisions, but the general principle of standardisation to facilitate trade and safety still stands. This is the foundation of the single market.
    The need for standardisation is only valid if you assume all citizens and subjects of all member states are a) thinking along the same lines and b) so foolish as to not be able to define what good is in any given widget.

    It is a bogus argument.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    .@frankfieldteam "Labour voters can be totally loyal to Labour and still vote to leave the EU."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    edited June 2016

    So it is not impossible for Europe to compensate for a collapse of NATO, just that the political will is not there and never will be there to do so.

    Perhaps this is a scenario where the will to power grab in Brussels could indeed be to everyone's mutual benefit?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183

    Did anyone say we did? We don't pay much at all into NATO. We are supposed to spend 2% on defence as part of NATO (which we do, once the books have been simmered for a sufficiently long period)
    Yeh - Plaid woman on Newsnight.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    PClipp said:

    What precisely does this one mean, Mr White? I did say "precisely".....
    In short, politicians who promise to say, get net immigration down to less than 100K will be held properly to account when they don't have a workable plan and thrown out if they break their promises.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Tim said:

    Anyone who thinks the pound is going to move during the day doesn't know what they're talking about.

    The pattern of people voting during polling hours varies dramatically (simplifying massively, workers in the morning, non-workers in the day, workers in the evening). On top of that, we don't have previous referenda to compare voting patterns to, among these groups. It's not like GEs.

    So, what will an exit poll taken at 2pm actually mean? Not much is the answer.

    One taken at 6pm or 7pm may mean something, but if you factor in (at least) a 1 hour turnaround time from polling data collection through to analysis and then feedback to the client it doesn't leave much time for a play on the currency markets.

    If people seriously believe there'd be a play on the currency markets which would then feedback in the media to people who have yet to vote, and yet to decide how to vote, in the final hours of polling, then they are living in PB bubble fantasy land.

    Say the polls pick up 55-45 REMAIN by 2pm. That'd be useful to know, right? I would be pretty sure REMAIN was safe then.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    AnneJGP said:

    Saw an advert today for a mobile-phone receptionist service - all your callers speak first to them & only the ones you want to speak to get put through. Rules out cold-callers.
    Haven't got a link for that service have you? Sounds brilliant to me if it is not too expensive.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Is it a disgrace? :-)
    I get the impression she thinks the loss of cheese exports would be a disgrace but I can't recall if she said it.
This discussion has been closed.