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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections : June 2nd 2016 (Referendum Day -21 days
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections : June 2nd 2016 (Referendum Day -21 days and counting)
Oban North and Lorn (Ind defence, elected as SNP) on Argyll and Bute
Result of council at last election (2012) : Independents 15, Scottish Nationalists 13, Liberal Democrats 4, Conservatives 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4)
Result of ward at last election (2012) :
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What the hell does Ukip do if the vote is LEAVE and the Tories actually start to leave? Pressure group to make sure they keep LEAVEing? Especially if there's a populist LEAVE PM like Boris?
JESUS. I'm so shocked i can barely type.
My Bulgarian wife (she got British nationality in March) has just come into the living room and told me she's made a decision on the referendum.
She's voting Leave.
Or is it more a result of the drop in trust ratings than the audience selection, do you think?
People however are generally a sensible lot, and will cut through the noise to make a sensible decision.
The vast majority of the electorate keep things simple. And the immigration figures are very simple to understand and for a lot of people that's all they need to vote leave.
The interesting thing about these 7 elections is that there is only 1 UKIP candidate . A party with no money , falling membership , councillors leaving the party every weak and now unable to even stand candidates .
We reached, "we can't go on like this" with Cameron's deal.
I think that England will be lucky to get out of the group. Terrible tactics.
Foreigner European types telling us to leave the EU! (Actually a Polish now naturalised Brit interviewed the other week is as well)
Applies to both sides of course.
For a large sample size, on the website of a man whose face is being used (rather naughtily) on the Remain leaflet, it's quite striking.
Leave by almost 2:1 on a turnout in the tens of thousands.
For many, it will be 41 years of EU membership which will have become the norm.
There is also the appeal to authority of the various institutions promoting Remain.
But that is a good point.
40 yrs old, B - C2 (Maybe C1), young family, median income. Your average lower middle class person ?
That could well be a more accurate voodoo poll than most.
Dave has toxified RemaiN !!
There were broadly similar figs for houseprice scares too - I think voters are largely shrugging this stuff off now.
Inside the windswept French clifftop tents where Albanian migrants refuel for their next assault on BritainWhite tents dotted along clifftops in the port of Dieppe, in northern France, are home to 150 migrants heading for UK
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3622334/I-won-t-happy-reach-England-Inside-clifftop-tents-France-Albanian-migrants-refuel-assault-Britain.html#ixzz4ASOd1flY
http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/poll/23-02-2016/which-us-presidential-candidate-would-you-vote-for-if-you-could
And the same question last year - a bit closer
http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/poll/19-10-2015/should-the-uk-stay-in-the-eu
Not that many under-25s, but that doesn't seem an unreasonable assumption...
A l'eau, c'est l'heure.
She has moved from firm Remain, to undecided, to (now) Leave.
She remains pro-European but agreed with me that the EU is just never going to change unless they suffer the shock of losing one of their main members, and we learn to collaborate and cooperate rather than force, threaten and compel against the democratic will of the peoples across Europe.
Apparently it was 6x he called Faisal glib.
Well, in Scotland the "would not vote for decades" because "why-should-I-as-we-always-return-Labour?" decided to vote - and they largely swung to Leave.
The same will happen here.
But UK pensioners will not behave like Scottish pensioners.
That's because the UK paid Scottish pensioners' pensions.
The EU does not pay British and Northern Irish pensioners' pensions.
But I think it is fair to say that both campaigns have been underwhelming, that the points we have discussed on here have proven too nuanced or complex for the general public, that the targeting of both campaigns has left a lot of people like us not really being given the option we wanted (EEA/EFTA) at all and having to choose between 2 pretty ordinary choices.
I am voting Leave in the hope of something better and in the firm belief that Remain puts us on a road we don't want to go down but much of the "official" campaign makes me very uncomfortable.
The head of the EU is not Queen Elizabeth II either.
Mr. Owls and the whole Owls family come out for remain (shocked me), Mrs. Royale declares for remain all on the same evening. Maybe, just maybe, there is grounds for hope. The straws currently blowing in the wind all seem to be going in the same direction and that is in the way of Leave.
Instead, Labour sabotaged it from inside.
Why are you backing Remain, Jeremy? "The EU voted to restrict use of some pesticides strongly linked to the decline of the bee population."
There's only so long you can whisper "foreigners, foreigners" to your supporters, until they kick back when you don't actually do something about the foreigners.
You will have the wrath of the moon-howlers brought down upon you if you ask sensible questions like that.
As you note the former isn't really possible and the latter is in my view unlikely to happen.
Still, works all right for me. The country will do well outside of the EU.
This is because we can make our own destiny, have a spring in our step and our politicians can no longer say "It's all the EU gov" (When it isn't always)
This makes me very uneasy too, since I disagree with all their arguments.
In the background is the problem that this is a meaningless question, for both sides. Who knows how a win for X side will be interpreted?
I suspect we will end up in a similar position though these days we take a latte more often than a beer.
Harman tried to worm her into the House of Lords (no, seriously) last year, but Miliband was having none of it.
She'll probably be gifted Peckham instead...
And then I would respond, saying why I believe a 1980s charcoal grey pinstripe suit says something else to the man or woman on the street.
And on we would go, perhaps quite interestingly.
To say: "Keep telling yourself that" really doesn't do much for the ongoing debate.
I suspect the UKIP challenge will be strong but unsuccessful.