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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections : June 2nd 2016 (Referendum Day -21 days

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Comments

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    FPT

    JESUS. I'm so shocked i can barely type.

    My Bulgarian wife (she got British nationality in March) has just come into the living room and told me she's made a decision on the referendum.

    She's voting Leave.

    In Lombardy it's common for the most passionate Lega Nord supporters to be of Southern Italian heritage. They know.
  • There is also an election on Rushmoor DC deferred from May 5th Aldershot Park ward marginal Conservative seat Lab 2nd UKIP close 3rd .
    The interesting thing about these 7 elections is that there is only 1 UKIP candidate . A party with no money , falling membership , councillors leaving the party every weak and now unable to even stand candidates .

    Dont worry, Fargle will be a Tory Cabinet minister under Boris by Christmas and you lot will have Clarke Heseltine and all the other europhile has beens in your party.

    PS - Tories won Yeovil as I told you they would.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    Tonight is the first time I've genuinely thought Leave might actually be able to do this.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    I think that was the worst game of football I have watched for as long as I can remember...wasn't there a match Germany vs Austria in 1982 that was quite as appalling?

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Vardy carrying a wrist injury ?

    He injured his wrist last September, has been wearing strapping on it every match since. I think it is a luck rather than medical thing now.

    I think that England will be lucky to get out of the group. Terrible tactics.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pool old Nigel, he is absolutely right on immigration (tens of thousands pledge, etc), makes ok sensible points. But every word he utters about it toxifies the Leave campaign as being part of the anti-Johnny Foreigner fringe.

    Keep telling yourself that
    OK without wishing to lecture you, or anyone, it makes for a much better discussion board were you to say something like: "you may say that but actually charcoal grey pinstripe suits of the type popularised in the 1980s will appeal to X or Y demographic, because blah blah, etc."

    And then I would respond, saying why I believe a 1980s charcoal grey pinstripe suit says something else to the man or woman on the street.

    And on we would go, perhaps quite interestingly.

    To say: "Keep telling yourself that" really doesn't do much for the ongoing debate.
    And others could say how much they admired that type of suit cloth, as I do - but providing the pinstripe is faint or blue, and definitely not chalkstripe white.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,247
    edited June 2016
    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    But I think it is fair to say that both campaigns have been underwhelming, that the points we have discussed on here have proven too nuanced or complex for the general public, that the targeting of both campaigns has left a lot of people like us not really being given the option we wanted (EEA/EFTA) at all and having to choose between 2 pretty ordinary choices.

    I am voting Leave in the hope of something better and in the firm belief that Remain puts us on a road we don't want to go down but much of the "official" campaign makes me very uncomfortable.

    The leading spokesmen for the official campaign are Tories, Mr L, on both sides.

    This makes me very uneasy too, since I disagree with all their arguments.

    In the background is the problem that this is a meaningless question, for both sides. Who knows how a win for X side will be interpreted?
    This is true but as a Leaver I find the claim that we are going to save £350m a week just plain dishonest, I don't like the emphasis on immigration to the exclusion of all else, the reluctance to present a single plan for our trading relationships with the EU after Brexit troubles me and I find the paranoia, Jonny Foreigner is out to get us stuff totally tiresome.

    OTOH, Remain simply refuse to address the direction of travel of the EU, its implications for Britain, the problems that an ever more integrated EZ will cause and simply resort to ever more bizarre and apocalyptic scare stories that have become laughable.

    I am going off referendums.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:



    Right. That's why I think Remain would be crazy not to just keep banging the "all your money will turn to dust" drum. It's simple and, though people complain of scaremongering, it may well still work.

    The problem here is that it turns remainers into laughing remainers who then vote leave, by post.
    That will happen in some cases but (imo) it's Remain's best chance of winning.
    It isn't the script that won in Scotland though.
    If you mean that it lacks the "We fought two world wars together, lovely old Union" stuff then yes, it does. But the public isn't going to be receptive to a romanticised case for EU membership. That's something you'd need to build up over decades and the work hasn't been done. So it comes down to what's possible at short notice and what's possible is to play on economic risk. And that's not a weak card to play - it may well still work.
    Bottom line is that what won the Indy ref was a change to a positive vision together with the vow.

    As you note the former isn't really possible and the latter is in my view unlikely to happen.

    Still, works all right for me. The country will do well outside of the EU.

    This is because we can make our own destiny, have a spring in our step and our politicians can no longer say "It's all the EU gov" (When it isn't always)
    I'd attribute the Sindy result to:

    * fear of consequences
    * Unionist sentiment

    I'm very doubtful that the Vow made any difference.

    But I appreciate this is subjective. I think we are in agreement that there is a dimension to the Sindy No campaign that Remain cannot or isn't replicating.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:

    Moses_ said:

    I see the French are not going to serve beer to football fans at the Euros. Probably a good thing. On the other hand they will serve them water but only if they ask for it in French.

    When I was in Milan a few years ago, I went for lunch and was told no alcohol was available as there was a football match on that night (can't remember if it was domestic or international).
    Luncheon in Italy and no wine was available to an English Gentleman. Dear God, what a pretty pass we have come to. I hope you did what all right-thinking, God-fearing gentlemen should do in such circumstances - walk out and go up-market (I bet the restriction didn't apply to where the posh people eat).
    Hmm good point. It was a "street" restaurant, in the glorious sunshine, the food turned out to be lovely. I was staying at the Principe di Savoia and couldn't understand why there were so many paparazzi outside. Anywhere was better than going back there.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    DavidL said:


    The telling point for me the other day was that all the trade unionists and tradesmen were for Leave and the Labour intellectual types, MPs etc were for Remain. The gap between the average MP and those they purport to represent has never been wider.

    Applies to both sides of course.

    I honestly can't think of a case in modern British history where both sides of an argument were so poorly served by the official campaigns. It is making the Scottish referendum look like a model of accuracy and honesty.
    I thought Michael Gove's editorial at the beginning of the campaign was one of the most inspiring arguments I've read in politics.

    Remain has been hamstrung by Cameron and Osborne's leadership. I think both are brilliant campaigners, but I'm not convinced either particularly likes the EU. The EU's greatest heavyweight backers were people like Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson, Chris Huhne and Charles Kennedy.

    For various reasons they aren't available to boost votes anymore. Sadly in Charles Kennedy's case.

    Michael Heseltine, Kenneth Clarke and Paddy Ashdown are still about but I haven't seen much of them. Largely because Cameron has dominated the news so much.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,581
    edited June 2016

    PlatoSaid said:

    FPT

    JESUS. I'm so shocked i can barely type.

    My Bulgarian wife (she got British nationality in March) has just come into the living room and told me she's made a decision on the referendum.

    She's voting Leave.

    Golly, what's changed her mind?
    First, she made me swear not to tell a soul (and now I've just publicly told all you lot) and then confessed to me.

    She has moved from firm Remain, to undecided, to (now) Leave.

    She remains pro-European but agreed with me that the EU is just never going to change unless they suffer the shock of losing one of their main members, and we learn to collaborate and cooperate rather than force, threaten and compel against the democratic will of the peoples across Europe.
    How, in concrete terms, would she like the EU to change? In what way does she consider the EU to be acting against the democratic will of its people?
    Drop me a vanilla email and I'll invite you round for an interview.
    I'm happy for you, or anyone else here to answer, and am genuinely interested. What concrete measures would you like to see implemented to fix the EU?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pool old Nigel, he is absolutely right on immigration (tens of thousands pledge, etc), makes ok sensible points. But every word he utters about it toxifies the Leave campaign as being part of the anti-Johnny Foreigner fringe.

    Keep telling yourself that
    OK without wishing to lecture you, or anyone, it makes for a much better discussion board were you to say something like: "you may say that but actually charcoal grey pinstripe suits of the type popularised in the 1980s will appeal to X or Y demographic, because blah blah, etc."

    And then I would respond, saying why I believe a 1980s charcoal grey pinstripe suit says something else to the man or woman on the street.

    And on we would go, perhaps quite interestingly.

    To say: "Keep telling yourself that" really doesn't do much for the ongoing debate.
    And others could say how much they admired that type of suit cloth, as I do - but providing the pinstripe is faint or blue, and definitely not chalkstripe white.
    It was the chalkstripe white that was the killer.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pool old Nigel, he is absolutely right on immigration (tens of thousands pledge, etc), makes ok sensible points. But every word he utters about it toxifies the Leave campaign as being part of the anti-Johnny Foreigner fringe.

    Keep telling yourself that
    OK without wishing to lecture you, or anyone, it makes for a much better discussion board were you to say something like: "you may say that but actually charcoal grey pinstripe suits of the type popularised in the 1980s will appeal to X or Y demographic, because blah blah, etc."

    And then I would respond, saying why I believe a 1980s charcoal grey pinstripe suit says something else to the man or woman on the street.

    And on we would go, perhaps quite interestingly.

    To say: "Keep telling yourself that" really doesn't do much for the ongoing debate.
    I just didnt want to be too explicit about suggesting you examine your conscience in respect of confirmation bias.

    Anyone who finds Farage Toxic wont vote leave abyway.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150
    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    TOPPING said:

    PClipp said:

    The leading spokesmen for the official campaign are Tories, Mr L, on both sides.

    This makes me very uneasy too, since I disagree with all their arguments.

    In the background is the problem that this is a meaningless question, for both sides. Who knows how a win for X side will be interpreted?

    Apart from Kate and Gisela, why do you suppose so few prominent Lab anti-EU-ers have put themselves forward?
    Probably so that the Referendum can be an all-Tory bunfight? No idea really, of course. Labour is not my party.

    Perhaps they just don`t want to get contaminated by Cameron-Osborne-May or Johnson-Farage-Gove and their stupid arguments. I wouldn`t want to be.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,674

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    To be fair, the comments were expecting a REMAIN result of about 60 per cent ten days ago.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pool old Nigel, he is absolutely right on immigration (tens of thousands pledge, etc), makes ok sensible points. But every word he utters about it toxifies the Leave campaign as being part of the anti-Johnny Foreigner fringe.

    Keep telling yourself that
    OK without wishing to lecture you, or anyone, it makes for a much better discussion board were you to say something like: "you may say that but actually charcoal grey pinstripe suits of the type popularised in the 1980s will appeal to X or Y demographic, because blah blah, etc."

    And then I would respond, saying why I believe a 1980s charcoal grey pinstripe suit says something else to the man or woman on the street.

    And on we would go, perhaps quite interestingly.

    To say: "Keep telling yourself that" really doesn't do much for the ongoing debate.
    I just didnt want to be too explicit about suggesting you examine your conscience in respect of confirmation bias.

    Anyone who finds Farage Toxic wont vote leave abyway.
    Agree. But there is a sensible debate to be had about immigration. Appearing on Sky as the quintessential loadsamoney London banker circa 1980 isn't likely to sway the undecideds.
  • Maggie's ghost returns to Britain
    http://bit.ly/1Pjbpaq
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Are we expecting any polls this evening?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    I thought that yesterday afternoon for the first time, even before the polls. I told my wife over breakfast, and said that we need to think of how this affects us. I also took a lot of the betfair 4-1's to ease my pain.

    Tonight is the first time I've genuinely thought Leave might actually be able to do this.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    The PM talked about his renegotiation tonight. Specifically he talked about a restriction on migrants claiming benefits for the first four years. But what about the emergency brake? That hasn't been talked about since the deal was done.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    I think it is worth pointing out what Merkel actually said.

    Something like:

    "You will not get what you want from the single market if you are not around the table".

    It isn't a threat, promise or anything sinister at all.

    The rules of the single market are set by those at the table (mostly) and not those who are not. (mostly).

    There was no threat that there would be no access to the single market (or any promise of access to it) if we were to leave.

    Sad really that such a statement of the bleeding obvious in such a reasonable manner should be hyped into a threat, to a point by both sides. It simply isn't.

  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    EPG said:

    Wanderer said:

    SeanT said:

    I have this hunch that this is swinging LEAVE's way, and it's not because of Tories or Kippers, it's because most lefties are singularly unconvinced, and will either abstain, or go OUT, like BJOwls

    I cannot see how it is possibly in the interest of a WWC Labour voter to say REMAIN. Because it isn't. They are just voting for endless unstoppable EU migration from ever poorer countries and ever more millions of people who want to do their job for less.

    Who the holy Fuck would vote for THAT?

    The Corbynite middle class Facebookers will go REMAIN, of course, but they are 5% of the population.

    Another striking thing was the Guardian report, yesterday, on *ethnic minorities* being not quite as REMAINIAN as everyone assumed.

    Certainly the case that when Cameron gave the referendum pledge he would have assumed there would be a mainstream Labour leader campaigning on the same side. It would be quite a different picture if Kendall/Cooper/Burnham had won. Corbyn just isn't really into Remain and isn't really trying to rally Labour supporters to that side.
    If Coopurndall won then we would be seeing big hand-holding sessions with the Labour and Conservative leaders on the same platform, and the former losing votes to Ukip by the minute.
    Quite possibly. Better scenario for Remain though. Hell, better scenario for Cameron.
    I don't think so, because if Corbyn wasn't leader he'd be campaigning for Leave in line with his true beliefs, and a lot of his supporters would follow.
    Hmm, yes, but if he were still on the backbenches and Cooper/whoever were leader he'd be a marginal figure with few followers.
    Not if he'd won the first round and only lost due to transfers, for example.
    Ah, OK. If he'd lost by a whisker (which his supporters would see as a neo-lizard stich-up) he would have had his own army of followers. Still, most Labour voters would pay most attention to the party leader?
  • dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    The PMs composure and professionalism in the face of hostile and glib questioning is remarkable. He is truly the outstanding politician of this generation. I shudder to think what Mr Corbyn will make of the experience when or if it ever falls to him.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    FPT

    JESUS. I'm so shocked i can barely type.

    My Bulgarian wife (she got British nationality in March) has just come into the living room and told me she's made a decision on the referendum.

    She's voting Leave.

    Golly, what's changed her mind?
    First, she made me swear not to tell a soul (and now I've just publicly told all you lot) and then confessed to me.

    She has moved from firm Remain, to undecided, to (now) Leave.

    She remains pro-European but agreed with me that the EU is just never going to change unless they suffer the shock of losing one of their main members, and we learn to collaborate and cooperate rather than force, threaten and compel against the democratic will of the peoples across Europe.
    How, in concrete terms, would she like the EU to change? In what way does she consider the EU to be acting against the democratic will of its people?
    Drop me a vanilla email and I'll invite you round for an interview.
    I'm happy for you, or anyone else here to answer, and am genuinely interested. What concrete measures would you like to see implemented to fix the EU?
    Concrete overcoats for the Eurocrats :-)
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,152
    DavidL said:



    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    But I think it is fair to say that both campaigns have been underwhelming, that the points we have discussed on here have proven too nuanced or complex for the general public, that the targeting of both campaigns has left a lot of people like us not really being given the option we wanted (EEA/EFTA) at all and having to choose between 2 pretty ordinary choices.

    I am voting Leave in the hope of something better and in the firm belief that Remain puts us on a road we don't want to go down but much of the "official" campaign makes me very uncomfortable.

    The leading spokesmen for the official campaign are Tories, Mr L, on both sides.

    This makes me very uneasy too, since I disagree with all their arguments.

    In the background is the problem that this is a meaningless question, for both sides. Who knows how a win for X side will be interpreted?
    This is true but as a Leaver I find the claim that we are going to save £350m a week just plain dishonest, I don't like the emphasis on immigration to the exclusion of all else, the reluctance to present a single plan for our trading relationships with the EU after Brexit troubles me and I find the paranoia, Jonny Foreigner is out to get us stuff totally tiresome.

    OTOH, Remain simply refuse to address the direction of travel of the EU, its implications for Britain, the problems that an ever more integrated EZ will cause and simply resort to ever more bizarre and apocalyptic scare stories that have become laughable.

    I am going off referendums.
    Well, I believe this one has done us a huge favour, in that it has put a stop (for the moment at least) to the rubbishing of legitimate concerns by the presumed overwhelming majority opinion.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,937
    Anecdote alert - listening to the news right now in a London pub, the comments I've overheard about Cameron are universally mocking. Unless there's a very, very silent majority for Remain then he's in trouble.
  • dyingswan said:

    The PMs composure and professionalism in the face of hostile and glib questioning is remarkable. He is truly the outstanding politician of this generation. I shudder to think what Mr Corbyn will make of the experience when or if it ever falls to him.

    Lol
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:



    Right. That's why I think Remain would be crazy not to just keep banging the "all your money will turn to dust" drum. It's simple and, though people complain of scaremongering, it may well still work.

    The problem here is that it turns remainers into laughing remainers who then vote leave, by post.
    That will happen in some cases but (imo) it's Remain's best chance of winning.
    It isn't the script that won in Scotland though.
    If you mean that it lacks the "We fought two world wars together, lovely old Union" stuff then yes, it does. But the public isn't going to be receptive to a romanticised case for EU membership. That's something you'd need to build up over decades and the work hasn't been done. So it comes down to what's possible at short notice and what's possible is to play on economic risk. And that's not a weak card to play - it may well still work.
    Bottom line is that what won the Indy ref was a change to a positive vision together with the vow.

    As you note the former isn't really possible and the latter is in my view unlikely to happen.

    Still, works all right for me. The country will do well outside of the EU.

    This is because we can make our own destiny, have a spring in our step and our politicians can no longer say "It's all the EU gov" (When it isn't always)
    I'd attribute the Sindy result to:

    * fear of consequences
    * Unionist sentiment

    I'm very doubtful that the Vow made any difference.

    But I appreciate this is subjective. I think we are in agreement that there is a dimension to the Sindy No campaign that Remain cannot or isn't replicating.
    Quite. But we are seeing project fear driving people the wrong way, in both.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Sad really that such a statement of the bleeding obvious in such a reasonable manner should be hyped into a threat, to a point by both sides. It simply isn't.

    It's not a threat; it's refreshing honesty.

    The Germans make £30bn a year from the UK. She won't want to be locked out of the British room.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pool old Nigel, he is absolutely right on immigration (tens of thousands pledge, etc), makes ok sensible points. But every word he utters about it toxifies the Leave campaign as being part of the anti-Johnny Foreigner fringe.

    Keep telling yourself that
    OK without wishing to lecture you, or anyone, it makes for a much better discussion board were you to say something like: "you may say that but actually charcoal grey pinstripe suits of the type popularised in the 1980s will appeal to X or Y demographic, because blah blah, etc."

    And then I would respond, saying why I believe a 1980s charcoal grey pinstripe suit says something else to the man or woman on the street.

    And on we would go, perhaps quite interestingly.

    To say: "Keep telling yourself that" really doesn't do much for the ongoing debate.
    And others could say how much they admired that type of suit cloth, as I do - but providing the pinstripe is faint or blue, and definitely not chalkstripe white.
    It was the chalkstripe white that was the killer.
    Horrid innit - just so, so, so gauche. Barrister's clerk gauche. Mid-life crisis gauche. Leather trouser gauche.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    And you've never been anything but tup-thumping for Remain.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Incidentally, my fb feed suddenly has no natural political discussion.

    Not even the luvvy corbynites.

    Politics overload? Bank holiday influence? Sunny outside? Too many political ads? All could be true...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,937
    EPG said:

    Cameron = US Republican establishment

    This is depressingly accurate, however Tory Leave are not Trump, who has genuinely challenged establishment sacred cows, but more like the Tea Party, with their ancient grudges and arcane obsessions.

    Our politics badly needs being rebooted, and Brexit is not the answer.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    EPG said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    To be fair, the comments were expecting a REMAIN result of about 60 per cent ten days ago.
    Betfair exchange hasn't shifted much yet either.

    Leave certainly have had a good week, and one when the postal votes go out, but it is the nature of rererendums that they get talked up as tight. We shall see.

    I think there is plenty of value in Leave, and on Remain 40-45% too. I have topped up.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    On topic: it appears to be "Suffolk Together" rather than Suffolk First (http://elections.midsuffolk.gov.uk/ResultsTable.aspx) and I'll eat my hat if that goes Lib Dem.

    I suspect the UKIP challenge will be strong but unsuccessful.

    What UKIP?

    http://www.midsuffolk.gov.uk/assets/UploadsMSDC/Organisation/Democratic-Services/Council-and-Democracy/Electoral-Services/BarkingandSomersham-StatementofNomination.pdf
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,247

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    I still think Remain will win on the back of David Cameron and late breakers to the status quo.

    But I am less sure than I was.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pool old Nigel, he is absolutely right on immigration (tens of thousands pledge, etc), makes ok sensible points. But every word he utters about it toxifies the Leave campaign as being part of the anti-Johnny Foreigner fringe.

    Keep telling yourself that
    OK without wishing to lecture you, or anyone, it makes for a much better discussion board were you to say something like: "you may say that but actually charcoal grey pinstripe suits of the type popularised in the 1980s will appeal to X or Y demographic, because blah blah, etc."

    And then I would respond, saying why I believe a 1980s charcoal grey pinstripe suit says something else to the man or woman on the street.

    And on we would go, perhaps quite interestingly.

    To say: "Keep telling yourself that" really doesn't do much for the ongoing debate.
    And others could say how much they admired that type of suit cloth, as I do - but providing the pinstripe is faint or blue, and definitely not chalkstripe white.
    Quite right, a white chalk stripe just shouts, "This man is a Spiv, never take him at his word". Almost as bad as unpolished shoes and the two together, which I saw more than once in my business days, is just a signal to terminate the meeting as soon as politely possible and never accept the fellow's telephone calls ever again.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    dyingswan said:

    The PMs composure and professionalism in the face of hostile and glib questioning is remarkable. He is truly the outstanding politician of this generation. I shudder to think what Mr Corbyn will make of the experience when or if it ever falls to him.

    Cameron's fixation with the word " glib " was interesting since the adjective fits him perfectly.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,152

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    I doubt if anybody's confident at all. It's rather that, previously, it seemed there was no chance of Leave winning. Now, it doesn't look utterly impossible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    PlatoSaid said:

    FPT

    JESUS. I'm so shocked i can barely type.

    My Bulgarian wife (she got British nationality in March) has just come into the living room and told me she's made a decision on the referendum.

    She's voting Leave.

    Golly, what's changed her mind?
    First, she made me swear not to tell a soul (and now I've just publicly told all you lot) and then confessed to me.

    She has moved from firm Remain, to undecided, to (now) Leave.

    She remains pro-European but agreed with me that the EU is just never going to change unless they suffer the shock of losing one of their main members, and we learn to collaborate and cooperate rather than force, threaten and compel against the democratic will of the peoples across Europe.
    How, in concrete terms, would she like the EU to change? In what way does she consider the EU to be acting against the democratic will of its people?
    Drop me a vanilla email and I'll invite you round for an interview.
    I'm happy for you, or anyone else here to answer, and am genuinely interested. What concrete measures would you like to see implemented to fix the EU?
    I have posted on this repeatedly in recent days and weeks.

    I want a common trade area not a common government. I want free self-governing democracies cooperating and colloboraring with one another not supranational institutions legislating on their behalf.

    If you want to ask my wife, you'll have to ask her yourself.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Anecdote alert - listening to the news right now in a London pub, the comments I've overheard about Cameron are universally mocking. Unless there's a very, very silent majority for Remain then he's in trouble.

    Chimes with everything I've heard.

    From workmen, chip shop customers and fellow Tory members....
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited June 2016

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    And you've never been anything but tup-thumping for Remain.
    Every intervention and scaremongering report was described as a game changer.

    It is interesting to see a significant number of "undecideds" come off the fence and fanatically defend the EU.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Saw Farage on SKY and he looked aged.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    DavidL said:



    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    But I think it is fair to say that both campaigns have been underwhelming, that the points we have discussed on here have proven too nuanced or complex for the general public, that the targeting of both campaigns has left a lot of people like us not really being given the option we wanted (EEA/EFTA) at all and having to choose between 2 pretty ordinary choices.

    I am voting Leave in the hope of something better and in the firm belief that Remain puts us on a road we don't want to go down but much of the "official" campaign makes me very uncomfortable.

    The leading spokesmen for the official campaign are Tories, Mr L, on both sides.

    This makes me very uneasy too, since I disagree with all their arguments.

    In the background is the problem that this is a meaningless question, for both sides. Who knows how a win for X side will be interpreted?
    This is true but as a Leaver I find the claim that we are going to save £350m a week just plain dishonest, I don't like the emphasis on immigration to the exclusion of all else, the reluctance to present a single plan for our trading relationships with the EU after Brexit troubles me and I find the paranoia, Jonny Foreigner is out to get us stuff totally tiresome.

    OTOH, Remain simply refuse to address the direction of travel of the EU, its implications for Britain, the problems that an ever more integrated EZ will cause and simply resort to ever more bizarre and apocalyptic scare stories that have become laughable.

    I am going off referendums.
    Hard to disagree with that.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    How many swing voters will have actually watched Cameron tonight? Cunning move to schedule his appearance when the football was in progress, though I gather that was as good as watching concrete harden.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    MikeK said:

    Saw Farage on SKY and he looked aged.

    He's probably working tirelessly, albeit not at 'air war' activities which get headlines.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pool old Nigel, he is absolutely right on immigration (tens of thousands pledge, etc), makes ok sensible points. But every word he utters about it toxifies the Leave campaign as being part of the anti-Johnny Foreigner fringe.

    Keep telling yourself that
    OK without wishing to lecture you, or anyone, it makes for a much better discussion board were you to say something like: "you may say that but actually charcoal grey pinstripe suits of the type popularised in the 1980s will appeal to X or Y demographic, because blah blah, etc."

    And then I would respond, saying why I believe a 1980s charcoal grey pinstripe suit says something else to the man or woman on the street.

    And on we would go, perhaps quite interestingly.

    To say: "Keep telling yourself that" really doesn't do much for the ongoing debate.
    And others could say how much they admired that type of suit cloth, as I do - but providing the pinstripe is faint or blue, and definitely not chalkstripe white.
    Quite right, a white chalk stripe just shouts, "This man is a Spiv, never take him at his word". Almost as bad as unpolished shoes and the two together, which I saw more than once in my business days, is just a signal to terminate the meeting as soon as politely possible and never accept the fellow's telephone calls ever again.
    Increasingly Cameron just looks the wrong man to front Remain.

    He pisses off half the righties and doesnt inspire the Lefties.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pool old Nigel, he is absolutely right on immigration (tens of thousands pledge, etc), makes ok sensible points. But every word he utters about it toxifies the Leave campaign as being part of the anti-Johnny Foreigner fringe.

    Keep telling yourself that
    OK without wishing to lecture you, or anyone, it makes for a much better discussion board were you to say something like: "you may say that but actually charcoal grey pinstripe suits of the type popularised in the 1980s will appeal to X or Y demographic, because blah blah, etc."

    And then I would respond, saying why I believe a 1980s charcoal grey pinstripe suit says something else to the man or woman on the street.

    And on we would go, perhaps quite interestingly.

    To say: "Keep telling yourself that" really doesn't do much for the ongoing debate.
    And could say how much they admired that type of suit cloth, as I do - but providing the pinstripe is faint or blue, and definitely not chalkstripe white.
    Quite right, a white chalk stripe just shouts, "This man is a Spiv, never take him at his word". Almost as bad as unpolished shoes and the two together, which I saw more than once in my business days, is just a signal to terminate the meeting as soon as politely possible and never accept the fellow's telephone calls ever again.
    Tom Watson's mafia suits
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    Anecdote alert - listening to the news right now in a London pub, the comments I've overheard about Cameron are universally mocking. Unless there's a very, very silent majority for Remain then he's in trouble.

    But I honestly wonder how many will then vote Remain in spite of mocking Cameron. I think there is a general mocking of ALL politicians with a very few rare exceptions and I am not really sure how much individuals drive the vote in these sort of referendums.

    As an example a lot of people who voted for Independence in Scotland were not fans of Salmond.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    FPT

    JESUS. I'm so shocked i can barely type.

    My Bulgarian wife (she got British nationality in March) has just come into the living room and told me she's made a decision on the referendum.

    She's voting Leave.

    Golly, what's changed her mind?
    First, she made me swear not to tell a soul (and now I've just publicly told all you lot) and then confessed to me.

    She has moved from firm Remain, to undecided, to (now) Leave.

    She remains pro-European but agreed with me that the EU is just never going to change unless they suffer the shock of losing one of their main members, and we learn to collaborate and cooperate rather than force, threaten and compel against the democratic will of the peoples across Europe.
    How, in concrete terms, would she like the EU to change? In what way does she consider the EU to be acting against the democratic will of its people?
    Drop me a vanilla email and I'll invite you round for an interview.
    I'm happy for you, or anyone else here to answer, and am genuinely interested. What concrete measures would you like to see implemented to fix the EU?
    I have posted on this repeatedly in recent days and weeks.

    I want a common trade area not a common government. I want free self-governing democracies cooperating and colloboraring with one another not supranational institutions legislating on their behalf.

    If you want to ask my wife, you'll have to ask her yourself.
    That would mean the end of the single market, wouldn't it?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    MP_SE said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    And you've never been anything but tup-thumping for Remain.
    Every intervention and scaremongering report was described as a gamechanger.

    It is interesting to see a significant number of "undecideds" come off the fence and fanatically defend the EU.
    Although I am one, so I would say that, I think most PB Remainers have not been fanatical. They have assessed the issues and on balance have thought that Remain offers the best, least disruptive, least value destructive, best option possible (rather than best possible option) for their country.

    PB Remainers are also devastatingly good looking, suave, amusing, and sophisticated, but I digress.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Anecdote alert - listening to the news right now in a London pub, the comments I've overheard about Cameron are universally mocking. Unless there's a very, very silent majority for Remain then he's in trouble.

    Suspect the same would happen with most politicians appearing on T.V apart from maybe Farage tbh.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Anecdote alert - listening to the news right now in a London pub, the comments I've overheard about Cameron are universally mocking. Unless there's a very, very silent majority for Remain then he's in trouble.

    I said a couple of weeks ago, when Lagarde was speaking "pretty bad to very very bad") a work colleague laughed. Was a remainer and now voted leave by post.

    I mentioned 1989 and Ceausescu.

    The speech started... And then they laughed. Soon it was all over.
  • Mortimer said:

    Anecdote alert - listening to the news right now in a London pub, the comments I've overheard about Cameron are universally mocking. Unless there's a very, very silent majority for Remain then he's in trouble.

    Chimes with everything I've heard.

    From workmen, chip shop customers and fellow Tory members....
    Cameron these days goes down badly with most voters. The actual performance does not matter much. 18% of voters trust him. Good for LEAVE that he is still the main front man. That said, Gove is I believe going to be a mistake tomorrow night for LEAVE.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    dr_spyn said:

    How many swing voters will have actually watched Cameron tonight? Cunning move to schedule his appearance when the football was in progress, though I gather that was as good as watching concrete harden.

    At least Vardy will come home early and rested. Hodgson has no clue as to formation or tactics and the players looked halfhearted. I expect an early exit, possibly at the group stage - a couple of days before the vote.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TOPPING said:

    MP_SE said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    And you've never been anything but tup-thumping for Remain.
    Every intervention and scaremongering report was described as a gamechanger.

    It is interesting to see a significant number of "undecideds" come off the fence and fanatically defend the EU.
    Although I am one, so I would say that, I think most PB Remainers have not been fanatical. They have assessed the issues and on balance have thought that Remain offers the best, least disruptive, least value destructive, best option possible (rather than best possible option) for their country.

    PB Remainers are also devastatingly good looking, suave, amusing, and sophisticated, but I digress.
    It's only about your wallet. You can be bought and we know it.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    chestnut said:

    Sad really that such a statement of the bleeding obvious in such a reasonable manner should be hyped into a threat, to a point by both sides. It simply isn't.

    It's not a threat; it's refreshing honesty.

    The Germans make £30bn a year from the UK. She won't want to be locked out of the British room.
    Quite, No threat there. It has been interpreted as one though. Shame.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,937

    I want a common trade area not a common government. I want free self-governing democracies cooperating and colloboraring with one another not supranational institutions legislating on their behalf.

    The EU is a shared layer of government, not a common government. Democracies cooperating and collaborating without formal pooling of sovereignty sounds nice on paper but it would throw us back to the era of spheres of influence and imperialism.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    EPG said:

    Cameron = US Republican establishment
    There's only so long you can whisper "foreigners, foreigners" to your supporters, until they kick back when you don't actually do something about the foreigners.

    Nonsense comment.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001

    I think it is worth pointing out what Merkel actually said.

    Something like:

    "You will not get what you want from the single market if you are not around the table".

    It isn't a threat, promise or anything sinister at all.

    The rules of the single market are set by those at the table (mostly) and not those who are not. (mostly).

    There was no threat that there would be no access to the single market (or any promise of access to it) if we were to leave.

    Sad really that such a statement of the bleeding obvious in such a reasonable manner should be hyped into a threat, to a point by both sides. It simply isn't.

    Quite agree. You can argue Obama's comments were slightly impertinent - I would have preferred back to square one rather than back of the queue - but there's hardly anything shocking in what Merkel is saying. It does underline the fact though that having a political union without a common language is a real problem.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pool old Nigel, he is absolutely right on immigration (tens of thousands pledge, etc), makes ok sensible points. But every word he utters about it toxifies the Leave campaign as being part of the anti-Johnny Foreigner fringe.

    Keep telling yourself that
    OK without wishing to lecture you, or anyone, it makes for a much better discussion board were you to say something like: "you may say that but actually charcoal grey pinstripe suits of the type popularised in the 1980s will appeal to X or Y demographic, because blah blah, etc."

    And then I would respond, saying why I believe a 1980s charcoal grey pinstripe suit says something else to the man or woman on the street.

    And on we would go, perhaps quite interestingly.

    To say: "Keep telling yourself that" really doesn't do much for the ongoing debate.
    And others could say how much they admired that type of suit cloth, as I do - but providing the pinstripe is faint or blue, and definitely not chalkstripe white.
    Quite right, a white chalk stripe just shouts, "This man is a Spiv, never take him at his word". Almost as bad as unpolished shoes and the two together, which I saw more than once in my business days, is just a signal to terminate the meeting as soon as politely possible and never accept the fellow's telephone calls ever again.
    Increasingly Cameron just looks the wrong man to front Remain.

    He pisses off half the righties and doesnt inspire the Lefties.
    Remain is sticking lipstick on a pig.

    Cameron's mistake is failing to recognise it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    PlatoSaid said:

    FPT

    JESUS. I'm so shocked i can barely type.

    My Bulgarian wife (she got British nationality in March) has just come into the living room and told me she's made a decision on the referendum.

    She's voting Leave.

    Golly, what's changed her mind?
    First, she made me swear not to tell a soul (and now I've just publicly told all you lot) and then confessed to me.

    She has moved from firm Remain, to undecided, to (now) Leave.

    She remains pro-European but agreed with me that the EU is just never going to change unless they suffer the shock of losing one of their main members, and we learn to collaborate and cooperate rather than force, threaten and compel against the democratic will of the peoples across Europe.
    How, in concrete terms, would she like the EU to change? In what way does she consider the EU to be acting against the democratic will of its people?
    Drop me a vanilla email and I'll invite you round for an interview.
    I'm happy for you, or anyone else here to answer, and am genuinely interested. What concrete measures would you like to see implemented to fix the EU?
    I have posted on this repeatedly in recent days and weeks.

    I want a common trade area not a common government. I want free self-governing democracies cooperating and colloboraring with one another not supranational institutions legislating on their behalf.

    If you want to ask my wife, you'll have to ask her yourself.
    That would mean the end of the single market, wouldn't it?
    A Single market does not need a Parliament, currency, court that promotes political integration, Commission or tens of thousands of directives and regulations which have nothing to do with trade. It needs a court or council to adjudicate on matters of trade compliance and a secretariate to oversee negotiations. Nothing more.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    EPG said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    To be fair, the comments were expecting a REMAIN result of about 60 per cent ten days ago.
    Betfair exchange hasn't shifted much yet either.

    Leave certainly have had a good week, and one when the postal votes go out, but it is the nature of rererendums that they get talked up as tight. We shall see.

    I think there is plenty of value in Leave, and on Remain 40-45% too. I have topped up.
    Remain 40-45 is good value imo (even better a few days ago when you coule get matched at 30+).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414
    AnneJGP said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    I doubt if anybody's confident at all. It's rather that, previously, it seemed there was no chance of Leave winning. Now, it doesn't look utterly impossible.
    Thursday night on the 23rd will be at least as exciting as Election Night, IMHO.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    TOPPING said:

    Pool old Nigel, he is absolutely right on immigration (tens of thousands pledge, etc), makes ok sensible points. But every word he utters about it toxifies the Leave campaign as being part of the anti-Johnny Foreigner fringe.

    I don't get the felling Nigel is THAT toxic for leave, just as Cameron's ratings might be bad in the polls but still comes over well. Polling doesn't always (never?) tells you the whole story.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,247
    TOPPING said:

    MP_SE said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    And you've never been anything but tup-thumping for Remain.
    Every intervention and scaremongering report was described as a gamechanger.

    It is interesting to see a significant number of "undecideds" come off the fence and fanatically defend the EU.
    Although I am one, so I would say that, I think most PB Remainers have not been fanatical. They have assessed the issues and on balance have thought that Remain offers the best, least disruptive, least value destructive, best option possible (rather than best possible option) for their country.

    PB Remainers are also devastatingly good looking, suave, amusing, and sophisticated, but I digress.
    And modest, don't forget modest.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    edited June 2016

    TOPPING said:

    MP_SE said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    And you've never been anything but tup-thumping for Remain.
    Every intervention and scaremongering report was described as a gamechanger.

    It is interesting to see a significant number of "undecideds" come off the fence and fanatically defend the EU.
    Although I am one, so I would say that, I think most PB Remainers have not been fanatical. They have assessed the issues and on balance have thought that Remain offers the best, least disruptive, least value destructive, best option possible (rather than best possible option) for their country.

    PB Remainers are also devastatingly good looking, suave, amusing, and sophisticated, but I digress.
    It's only about your wallet. You can be bought and we know it.
    a) you know nothing about me;
    b) It is about the wallet of the UK;
    c) every voter can be bought, as we have seen through the ages; although
    d) apart from you, it seems.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414
    chestnut said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pool old Nigel, he is absolutely right on immigration (tens of thousands pledge, etc), makes ok sensible points. But every word he utters about it toxifies the Leave campaign as being part of the anti-Johnny Foreigner fringe.

    Keep telling yourself that
    OK without wishing to lecture you, or anyone, it makes for a much better discussion board were you to say something like: "you may say that but actually charcoal grey pinstripe suits of the type popularised in the 1980s will appeal to X or Y demographic, because blah blah, etc."

    And then I would respond, saying why I believe a 1980s charcoal grey pinstripe suit says something else to the man or woman on the street.

    And on we would go, perhaps quite interestingly.

    To say: "Keep telling yourself that" really doesn't do much for the ongoing debate.
    And others could say how much they admired that type of suit cloth, as I do - but providing the pinstripe is faint or blue, and definitely not chalkstripe white.
    Quite right, a white chalk stripe just shouts, "This man is a Spiv, never take him at his word". Almost as bad as unpolished shoes and the two together, which I saw more than once in my business days, is just a signal to terminate the meeting as soon as politely possible and never accept the fellow's telephone calls ever again.
    Increasingly Cameron just looks the wrong man to front Remain.

    He pisses off half the righties and doesnt inspire the Lefties.
    Remain is sticking lipstick on a pig.

    Cameron's mistake is failing to recognise it.
    Obama-ism :)
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    Mr. Owls, I don't know about the TV stuff as I never watch the thing, but I disagree that this site has become over confident on Brexit. Those of us who are Leavers may be slightly more hopeful, maybe even optimistic, than we were (and your news has something to do with that, aside from the other events) but far from confident let alone over confident.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    MikeK said:

    Saw Farage on SKY and he looked aged.

    It's the hope that gets you. He's daring to hope.

    Think he'll miss by a small amount despite Remain clearly having had a bad few days. But he never thought he'd be even hoping by now I bet.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    chestnut said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pool old Nigel, he is absolutely right on immigration (tens of thousands pledge, etc), makes ok sensible points. But every word he utters about it toxifies the Leave campaign as being part of the anti-Johnny Foreigner fringe.

    Keep telling yourself that
    OK without wishing to lecture you, or anyone, it makes for a much better discussion board were you to say something like: "you may say that but actually charcoal grey pinstripe suits of the type popularised in the 1980s will appeal to X or Y demographic, because blah blah, etc."

    And then I would respond, saying why I believe a 1980s charcoal grey pinstripe suit says something else to the man or woman on the street.

    And on we would go, perhaps quite interestingly.

    To say: "Keep telling yourself that" really doesn't do much for the ongoing debate.
    And others could say how much they admired that type of suit cloth, as I do - but providing the pinstripe is faint or blue, and definitely not chalkstripe white.
    Quite right, a white chalk stripe just shouts, "This man is a Spiv, never take him at his word". Almost as bad as unpolished shoes and the two together, which I saw more than once in my business days, is just a signal to terminate the meeting as soon as politely possible and never accept the fellow's telephone calls ever again.
    Increasingly Cameron just looks the wrong man to front Remain.

    He pisses off half the righties and doesnt inspire the Lefties.
    Remain is sticking lipstick on a pig.

    Cameron's mistake is failing to recognise it.
    I doubt his ego will let him do it.

    I don't think his luck is holding up as long as Blair, he'll get through the EU ref but is taking a lot of collateral damage, most of it needlessly self inflicted.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,937

    A Single market does not need a Parliament, currency, court that promotes political integration, Commission or tens of thousands of directives and regulations which have nothing to do with trade. It needs a court or council to adjudicate on matters of trade compliance and a secretariate to oversee negotiations. Nothing more.

    For it to operate in that way with any longevity it also needs an outside guarantor of security. It's dangerously complacent to think that the US will play that role in perpetuity, particularly given recent developments.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    MP_SE said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    And you've never been anything but tup-thumping for Remain.
    Every intervention and scaremongering report was described as a gamechanger.

    It is interesting to see a significant number of "undecideds" come off the fence and fanatically defend the EU.
    Although I am one, so I would say that, I think most PB Remainers have not been fanatical. They have assessed the issues and on balance have thought that Remain offers the best, least disruptive, least value destructive, best option possible (rather than best possible option) for their country.

    PB Remainers are also devastatingly good looking, suave, amusing, and sophisticated, but I digress.
    And modest, don't forget modest.
    Well they've got a lot to be modest about :-)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    MP_SE said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    And you've never been anything but tup-thumping for Remain.
    Every intervention and scaremongering report was described as a gamechanger.

    It is interesting to see a significant number of "undecideds" come off the fence and fanatically defend the EU.
    Although I am one, so I would say that, I think most PB Remainers have not been fanatical. They have assessed the issues and on balance have thought that Remain offers the best, least disruptive, least value destructive, best option possible (rather than best possible option) for their country.

    PB Remainers are also devastatingly good looking, suave, amusing, and sophisticated, but I digress.
    And modest, don't forget modest.
    To a fault.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Anyone who finds Farage Toxic wont vote leave abyway.

    Wrong, as usual, Mr Bedfordshire. I find Farage totally toxic, but I am leaning towards Leave.

    I disagree with all his arguments. But I have arguments of my own.

    I also disagree with Cameron, Osborne, Gove and all mean-spirited members of this Government.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    MP_SE said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    And you've never been anything but tup-thumping for Remain.
    Every intervention and scaremongering report was described as a gamechanger.

    It is interesting to see a significant number of "undecideds" come off the fence and fanatically defend the EU.
    Although I am one, so I would say that, I think most PB Remainers have not been fanatical. They have assessed the issues and on balance have thought that Remain offers the best, least disruptive, least value destructive, best option possible (rather than best possible option) for their country.

    PB Remainers are also devastatingly good looking, suave, amusing, and sophisticated, but I digress.
    It's only about your wallet. You can be bought and we know it.
    a) you know nothing about me;
    b) It is about the wallet of the UK;
    c) every voter can be bought, as we have seen through the ages; although
    d) apart from you, it seems.
    it's only money

    we can always print some more
  • This is a measure of how confident I am about the referendum:

    A few days ago I went to the Britain Stronger in Europe online shop to choose a t-shirt. I liked the one with the simple slogan "I'm In" the best... But if we leave the EU then I'd not be able to go on wearing it without looking really daft - as, obviously, I'd not be "in" at that point. So I opted for a "Britian Stronger in Europe" slogan t-shirt instead. It's not as nice as the other one but I can can keep on wearing it even if we leave the EU as the slogan will still be a statement of principle and belief. :D
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597

    Tonight is the first time I've genuinely thought Leave might actually be able to do this.

    I still think a lot of brexiteers will lose their nerve in the polling booth.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    FPT

    JESUS. I'm so shocked i can barely type.

    My Bulgarian wife (she got British nationality in March) has just come into the living room and told me she's made a decision on the referendum.

    She's voting Leave.

    Golly, what's changed her mind?
    First, she made me swear not to tell a soul (and now I've just publicly told all you lot) and then confessed to me.

    She has moved from firm Remain, to undecided, to (now) Leave.

    She remains pro-European but agreed with me that the EU is just never going to change unless they suffer the shock of losing one of their main members, and we learn to collaborate and cooperate rather than force, threaten and compel against the democratic will of the peoples across Europe.
    How, in concrete terms, would she like the EU to change? In what way does she consider the EU to be acting against the democratic will of its people?
    Drop me a vanilla email and I'll invite you round for an interview.
    I'm happy for you, or anyone else here to answer, and am genuinely interested. What concrete measures would you like to see implemented to fix the EU?
    I have posted on this repeatedly in recent days and weeks.

    I want a common trade area not a common government. I want free self-governing democracies cooperating and colloboraring with one another not supranational institutions legislating on their behalf.

    If you want to ask my wife, you'll have to ask her yourself.
    That would mean the end of the single market, wouldn't it?
    A Single market does not need a Parliament, currency, court that promotes political integration, Commission or tens of thousands of directives and regulations which have nothing to do with trade. It needs a court or council to adjudicate on matters of trade compliance and a secretariate to oversee negotiations. Nothing more.
    But surely a single market requires a legislative body charged with harmonising technical and trading standards between its members. Otherwise it's not a single market, just a trading association.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    MP_SE said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    And you've never been anything but tup-thumping for Remain.
    Every intervention and scaremongering report was described as a gamechanger.

    It is interesting to see a significant number of "undecideds" come off the fence and fanatically defend the EU.
    Although I am one, so I would say that, I think most PB Remainers have not been fanatical. They have assessed the issues and on balance have thought that Remain offers the best, least disruptive, least value destructive, best option possible (rather than best possible option) for their country.

    PB Remainers are also devastatingly good looking, suave, amusing, and sophisticated, but I digress.
    It's only about your wallet. You can be bought and we know it.
    a) you know nothing about me;
    b) It is about the wallet of the UK;
    c) every voter can be bought, as we have seen through the ages; although
    d) apart from you, it seems.
    it's only money

    we can always print some more
    It would be a shame if you (and presumably many like you) were to vote Leave because you thought George was less than perfect.

    I'm sure John McDonnell would be less disappointing.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016
    Killer line from Faisal?
    Cameron being mocked and laughed at.
    https://youtu.be/B63kfkTDDZw
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    dr_spyn said:

    How many swing voters will have actually watched Cameron tonight? Cunning move to schedule his appearance when the football was in progress, though I gather that was as good as watching concrete harden.

    At least Vardy will come home early and rested. Hodgson has no clue as to formation or tactics and the players looked halfhearted. I expect an early exit, possibly at the group stage - a couple of days before the vote.

    How you can read that into tonight's game I have no idea. It was ruined as a contest as soon as the Portuguese got sent off for a remarkably dangerous tackle, leaving the referee no choice.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,152

    AnneJGP said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    I doubt if anybody's confident at all. It's rather that, previously, it seemed there was no chance of Leave winning. Now, it doesn't look utterly impossible.
    Thursday night on the 23rd will be at least as exciting as Election Night, IMHO.
    Much more, maybe. A GE is only for 5 years. This could be forever.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    I think it is worth pointing out what Merkel actually said.

    Something like:

    "You will not get what you want from the single market if you are not around the table".

    It isn't a threat, promise or anything sinister at all.

    The rules of the single market are set by those at the table (mostly) and not those who are not. (mostly).

    There was no threat that there would be no access to the single market (or any promise of access to it) if we were to leave.

    Sad really that such a statement of the bleeding obvious in such a reasonable manner should be hyped into a threat, to a point by both sides. It simply isn't.

    What she actually said, assuming your translation is accurate, fair enough, but why did she feel she needed to say it? Why did the Chancellor of Germany decide to put her oar into a UK debate? There is a question worth thinking about.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Mortimer said:

    Anecdote alert - listening to the news right now in a London pub, the comments I've overheard about Cameron are universally mocking. Unless there's a very, very silent majority for Remain then he's in trouble.

    Chimes with everything I've heard.

    From workmen, chip shop customers and fellow Tory members....
    Cameron these days goes down badly with most voters. The actual performance does not matter much. 18% of voters trust him. Good for LEAVE that he is still the main front man. That said, Gove is I believe going to be a mistake tomorrow night for LEAVE.
    Should have been Daniel Hannan.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    PClipp said:

    Anyone who finds Farage Toxic wont vote leave abyway.

    Wrong, as usual, Mr Bedfordshire. I find Farage totally toxic, but I am leaning towards Leave.

    I disagree with all his arguments. But I have arguments of my own.

    I also disagree with Cameron, Osborne, Gove and all mean-spirited members of this Government.

    I'm sure your right. Many people will vote Leave who find Farage repulsive. Leave wouldn't have a prayer if that weren't the case.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    PlatoSaid said:

    FPT

    JESUS. I'm so shocked i can barely type.

    My Bulgarian wife (she got British nationality in March) has just come into the living room and told me she's made a decision on the referendum.

    She's voting Leave.

    Golly, what's changed her mind?
    First, she made me swear not to tell a soul (and now I've just publicly told all you lot) and then confessed to me.

    She has moved from firm Remain, to undecided, to (now) Leave.

    She remains pro-European but agreed with me that the EU is just never going to change unless they suffer the shock of losing one of their main members, and we learn to collaborate and cooperate rather than force, threaten and compel against the democratic will of the peoples across Europe.
    How, in concrete terms, would she like the EU to change? In what way does she consider the EU to be acting against the democratic will of its people?
    Drop me a vanilla email and I'll invite you round for an interview.
    I'm happy for you, or anyone else here to answer, and am genuinely interested. What concrete measures would you like to see implemented to fix the EU?
    I have posted on this repeatedly in recent days and weeks.

    I want a common trade area not a common government. I want free self-governing democracies cooperating and colloboraring with one another not supranational institutions legislating on their behalf.

    If you want to ask my wife, you'll have to ask her yourself.
    That would mean the end of the single market, wouldn't it?
    No, not really. A lot of common safety standards come from the WTO, by consensus for example.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    MP_SE said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    And you've never been anything but tup-thumping for Remain.
    Every intervention and scaremongering report was described as a gamechanger.

    It is interesting to see a significant number of "undecideds" come off the fence and fanatically defend the EU.
    Although I am one, so I would say that, I think most PB Remainers have not been fanatical. They have assessed the issues and on balance have thought that Remain offers the best, least disruptive, least value destructive, best option possible (rather than best possible option) for their country.

    PB Remainers are also devastatingly good looking, suave, amusing, and sophisticated, but I digress.
    It's only about your wallet. You can be bought and we know it.
    a) you know nothing about me;
    b) It is about the wallet of the UK;
    c) every voter can be bought, as we have seen through the ages; although
    d) apart from you, it seems.
    it's only money

    we can always print some more
    It would be a shame if you (and presumably many like you) were to vote Leave because you thought George was less than perfect.

    I'm sure John McDonnell would be less disappointing.
    Bizarrely McDonnell actually has some ideas.

    George not so much
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    It's been said before, but I do wonder if we'll see UKIP topping the opinion polls by the end of the year, even if (maybe especially if) there's a "Remain" vote.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414
    Watching "Donnie Darko" on Horror Channel (Freeview 70).
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    'What comes first WW3 or the global Brexit recession?' Faisal Islam delivers knockout to Cameron in EU debate

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/what-comes-first-ww3-global-8104500
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    That is a very clever movie.

    Watching "Donnie Darko" on Horror Channel (Freeview 70).

  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Fox

    England are 9/1 to fail to qualify.

    Fill your boots!!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Danny565 said:

    It's been said before, but I do wonder if we'll see UKIP topping the opinion polls by the end of the year, even if (maybe especially if) there's a "Remain" vote.

    And still no.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Does anyone have a prediction for the day that the exchanges magically make LEAVE the favourite. I remember seeing Corbo's odds tumbling in one afternoon/evening last year and cashing out too soon....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jobabob said:

    dr_spyn said:

    How many swing voters will have actually watched Cameron tonight? Cunning move to schedule his appearance when the football was in progress, though I gather that was as good as watching concrete harden.

    At least Vardy will come home early and rested. Hodgson has no clue as to formation or tactics and the players looked halfhearted. I expect an early exit, possibly at the group stage - a couple of days before the vote.

    How you can read that into tonight's game I have no idea. It was ruined as a contest as soon as the Portuguese got sent off for a remarkably dangerous tackle, leaving the referee no choice.
    I watched the other warm ups, and watched the faces of the players on and off the pitch. They looked confused by what they were asked to do. Kane is a great header of the ball, but taking the free kicks for example. Wales should top the group.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    tyson said:

    That is a very clever movie.

    Watching "Donnie Darko" on Horror Channel (Freeview 70).

    Fantastic film. One of my favourites.

    And on that note, nitey nitey.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    AnneJGP said:

    This site has become over confident on Brexit. They have had a good few days but the majority of journalists thought DC did well tonight despite the hostility. Lets see how Gove gets on tomorrow

    I doubt if anybody's confident at all. It's rather that, previously, it seemed there was no chance of Leave winning. Now, it doesn't look utterly impossible.
    Thursday night on the 23rd will be at least as exciting as Election Night, IMHO.
    No. More so, as it will make elections actually mean something.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    This is a measure of how confident I am about the referendum:

    A few days ago I went to the Britain Stronger in Europe online shop to choose a t-shirt. I liked the one with the simple slogan "I'm In" the best... But if we leave the EU then I'd not be able to go on wearing it without looking really daft - as, obviously, I'd not be "in" at that point. So I opted for a "Britian Stronger in Europe" slogan t-shirt instead. It's not as nice as the other one but I can can keep on wearing it even if we leave the EU as the slogan will still be a statement of principle and belief. :D

    Britain will always be in Europe - but we are certainly not better off overall in the EU - if you look at the slogan you will see that even the name for the Remain Campaign is wrong and misleading.
  • MP_SE said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anecdote alert - listening to the news right now in a London pub, the comments I've overheard about Cameron are universally mocking. Unless there's a very, very silent majority for Remain then he's in trouble.

    Chimes with everything I've heard.

    From workmen, chip shop customers and fellow Tory members....
    Cameron these days goes down badly with most voters. The actual performance does not matter much. 18% of voters trust him. Good for LEAVE that he is still the main front man. That said, Gove is I believe going to be a mistake tomorrow night for LEAVE.
    Should have been Daniel Hannan.
    or Andrea Leadsom.
This discussion has been closed.