politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leave’s major advantage in the last three weeks of the camp

TheScreamingEagles said:

What a nutcase

@NoahsStowAway: @JohnRentoul @TSEofPB Still yet to meet a remain supporter in real life. Cannot see how it is judged close except for preparing the big lie

weejonnie said:

edmundintokyo said:

Ladbrokes betting slips look very large and unwieldy
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cj8qM8MWkAAbpZ8.jpg:large

5/2 is that odds narrowing on LEAVE or did he get a good/bad deal?

AlastairMeeks said:

I see that Leave aren't attempting to keep their claims even loosely aligned with any factual basis any more:

https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/738356154783432704

Morris_Dancer said:

Guten Nachmittag, my fellow Untermensch.

You vill be at ze back of ze queue, Tommy.

A German Chancellor lecturing Britain. What could possibly go wrong?

Mr. Eagles, Agincourt*. I realise you're for Remain but using the French term for an English victory is just perverse.

Alanbrooke said:

German government moving to block the takeover of Kuka Germanys main robotics manufacturer by the Chinese.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/china-warnt-vor-politisierung-von-kuka-uebernahme-14265619.html

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, you're being a revisionist who opts for French over English. What next? Will you be refusing to pronounce the S in Paris?

Honestly.

HurstLlama said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

I lived in Germany from 1998 to 2008, and I was also struck by the completely different attitude to the EU. While some Germans regarded the EU with exasperation and annoyance, there was non of the outright hostility that was prevalent in the UK even then. They tended to see the EU as their family - irritating and awkward sometimes, but still "us". The UK attitude, in contrast, has been very much "us" and "them" for the last few decades. Personally, I put the most blame for this on the insidious nature of an enduring anti-EU campaign by the British press.

I am not at all surprised and I don't believe it has a damn thing to do with the British Press. The UK has never been part of Europe in the same way that continental countries have. We have always been the awkward place off to the left that didn't give in to the Spanish, the French, the Dutch, the French again or the Germans, but we fought with them all to stop any of them getting too big and to preserve our own interests. We have always remained separate and have never been ruled by any of them, whilst they have repeatedly conquered and ruled each other (frequently until the UK put together an alliance and busted it up).

Remember too, Mr. Enjineeya, the press exists to sell papers so they are more likely to reflect rather than lead opinion. If the UK press appears to you to be anti-EU that is because that is what their readers want to see. The old, probably apocryphal, headline, "Fog in the channel - Continent cut off", resonates because it captures a mood of the people of these islands.

We do not belong in the EU, our whole history and tradition (legal, trading, whatever you like) goes against it. We will never be happy partners in this political construct and so it's probably best for all if we get out now. We can still be friends, we can cooperate when our interests collide (with have with Portugal since 1373), but we will never be comfortable "pooling sovereignty" to the level demanded by the EU.

Richard_Nabavi said:

You really do have to admire the shamelessness of Vote Leave. Making bonkers and objectively false claims about easily verifiable facts is one thing, but doing that whilst simultaneously having the nerve to make a big deal of accusing the other side of 'corroding public trust', 'scaremongering', and being engaged in 'Project Fear' in forecasts requires a Herculean degree of cynical hypocrisy. Very enjoyable for students of political theatre, of course.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, you're being a revisionist who opts for French over English. What next? Will you be refusing to pronounce the S in Paris?

Honestly.

I do that too. The French language is awesome. I think I might write a PB thread in French.

TSE = French sleeper agent!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

You really do have to admire the shamelessness of Vote Leave. Making bonkers and objectively false claims about easily verifiable facts is one thing, but doing that whilst simultaneously having the nerve to make a big deal of accusing the other side of 'corroding public trust', 'scaremongering', and being engaged in 'Project Fear' in forecasts requires a Herculean degree of cynical hypocrisy. Very enjoyable for students of political theatre, of course.

Richard "Arch PB Scaremongerer" Nabavi

Richard_Nabavi said:

MTimT said:

Bollocks. Most markets for most goods through most of history have not been regulated. Why should banana shape be regulated at all? Where does regulation 'for the sake of a level playing field' end? With no choice for the consumer?

Regulation is a political choice just like anything else. Much regulation should be pushed down to the lowest level of government appropriate, not all of it pushed up the the highest.

You are confusing two different points. Should banana shape be regulated at all? No, I would say not. But if it is regulated, it should be done at the single-market level, not at the individual country level, otherwise it acts as a non-tariff barrier.

Stark_Dawning said:

HurstLlama said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

I lived in Germany from 1998 to 2008, and I was also struck by the completely different attitude to the EU. While some Germans regarded the EU with exasperation and annoyance, there was non of the outright hostility that was prevalent in the UK even then. They tended to see the EU as their family - irritating and awkward sometimes, but still "us". The UK attitude, in contrast, has been very much "us" and "them" for the last few decades. Personally, I put the most blame for this on the insidious nature of an enduring anti-EU campaign by the British press.

I am not at all surprised and I don't believe it has a damn thing to do with the British Press. The UK has never been part of Europe in the same way that continental countries have. We have always been the awkward place off to the left that didn't give in to the Spanish, the French, the Dutch, the French again or the Germans, but we fought with them all to stop any of them getting too big and to preserve our own interests. We have always remained separate and have never been ruled by any of them, whilst they have repeatedly conquered and ruled each other (frequently until the UK put together an alliance and busted it up).

Remember too, Mr. Enjineeya, the press exists to sell papers so they are more likely to reflect rather than lead opinion. If the UK press appears to you to be anti-EU that is because that is what their readers want to see. The old, probably apocryphal, headline, "Fog in the channel - Continent cut off", resonates because it captures a mood of the people of these islands.

We do not belong in the EU, our whole history and tradition (legal, trading, whatever you like) goes against it. We will never be happy partners in this political construct and so it's probably best for all if we get out now. We can still be friends, we can cooperate when our interests collide (with have with Portugal since 1373), but we will never be comfortable "pooling sovereignty" to the level demanded by the EU.

I put on the Dambusters theme, stood up and saluted while I read that.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, .....


........


........


I'm going to have to create more enormo-haddock just so there's a sufficient number to slap you about the head and neck.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Apparently, the French for "screaming eagles" is:

Les Aigles Hurlants

David_Evershed said:

I don't think any EU member countries grow bananas.

However, what are the actual EU regulations that apply to the import and sale of bananas?

FrancisUrquhart said:

So if Monty Hall opens a door to reveal a Jeremy Corbyn, do you stick or switch from your original decision?

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I have Thatcher's own words too. What do you think she meant when she said this in 1997?

"The majority of our people want Britain to be in Europe, and so do I.”

Darth Eagles, In politics what does it matter what people who are dead said or what they meant or how we think they would have reacted to the challenges of today. They are dead and gone, it is what people now think about today's problems that matter.

Churchill, Attlee, Bevan, Thatcher and all the rest were great people who served this country to the best of their abilities, but they are dead. The world has turned. They are history. We might just as well ask what the Great Duke (Wellington) would have made of it all.

Wellington would have admired Cameron. Old Etonian Tory PMs when dealing with Europe are the dogs dangly bits.

HurstLlama said:

@NickPalmer

"The number of Labour voters who will vote Remain because they trust Osborne is zero, but the number who think that a Tory government free of EU constraints will run amok is substantial and needs to be mobilised."

I find that just so depressing. It may be good short term politics, but encouraging a false belief in in order to obtain a political goal just stores up trouble down the line and is corrosive for the political process and social cohesion.

There are good and honest arguments to be made for both sides of the debate and its a real shame that the politicians don't just stick to making them. To actively go out of their way to encourage false beliefs is, in my view, just wrong, so wrong.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

So if Monty Hall opens a door to reveal a Jeremy Corbyn, do you stick or switch from your original decision?

You can win either a dinner date with George Osborne or Jeremy Corbyn.

There is a steaming pile of horse muck behind the third door.

Do you switch ?

ScottP will be along to tell us it is 50:50 and so doesn't matter what you do ;-)

AlastairMeeks said:

Bananas are grown in the Canaries and in Madeira, both of which are in the EU.

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

And so we come full circle: back to arguing about which side a corpse would vote for and refighting World War Two.

Wait until see my thread for this weekend. I mention, inter alia, Overlord and Waterloo, still trying to work in a reference to Azincourt

NickPalmer said:

HurstLlama said:

@NickPalmer

"The number of Labour voters who will vote Remain because they trust Osborne is zero, but the number who think that a Tory government free of EU constraints will run amok is substantial and needs to be mobilised."

I find that just so depressing. It may be good short term politics, but encouraging a false belief in in order to obtain a political goal just stores up trouble down the line and is corrosive for the political process and social cohesion.

There are good and honest arguments to be made for both sides of the debate and its a real shame that the politicians don't just stick to making them. To actively go out of their way to encourage false beliefs is, in my view, just wrong, so wrong.

Personally I agree with both parts (and I think corbyn does as well) - I don't trust Osborne's predictions, and I do think that a post-Brexit Tory government will be much more right-wing (and from my perspective harmful) than anything seen to date. So it's not an encouragement of a belief which we think false. We might be wrong, of course, but that's another matter!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I have Thatcher's own words too. What do you think she meant when she said this in 1997?

"The majority of our people want Britain to be in Europe, and so do I.”

Darth Eagles, In politics what does it matter what people who are dead said or what they meant or how we think they would have reacted to the challenges of today. They are dead and gone, it is what people now think about today's problems that matter.

Churchill, Attlee, Bevan, Thatcher and all the rest were great people who served this country to the best of their abilities, but they are dead. The world has turned. They are history. We might just as well ask what the Great Duke (Wellington) would have made of it all.

Wellington would have admired Cameron. Old Etonian Tory PMs when dealing with Europe are the dogs dangly bits.

Oh yes,the Duke would have applauded Fake Dave stood next to foreign leaders making threats on Britain,especially the French and Yanks .

You're going to be a right grump if Remain win aren't you ?

HurstLlama said:

NickPalmer said:

HurstLlama said:

@NickPalmer

"The number of Labour voters who will vote Remain because they trust Osborne is zero, but the number who think that a Tory government free of EU constraints will run amok is substantial and needs to be mobilised."

I find that just so depressing. It may be good short term politics, but encouraging a false belief in in order to obtain a political goal just stores up trouble down the line and is corrosive for the political process and social cohesion.

There are good and honest arguments to be made for both sides of the debate and its a real shame that the politicians don't just stick to making them. To actively go out of their way to encourage false beliefs is, in my view, just wrong, so wrong.

Personally I agree with both parts (and I think corbyn does as well) - I don't trust Osborne's predictions, and I do think that a post-Brexit Tory government will be much more right-wing (and from my perspective harmful) than anything seen to date. So it's not an encouragement of a belief which we think false. We might be wrong, of course, but that's another matter!

Fair enough, mate, but just out of interest, specifically, in what areas of policy do you think this new right wing Tory government will "run amok"?

tpfkar said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

So if Monty Hall opens a door to reveal a Jeremy Corbyn, do you stick or switch from your original decision?

You can "win" either a dinner date with George Osborne or Jeremy Corbyn.

The host reveals that a politician is behind the door he is pointing to, and also there is a steaming pile of horse muck behind a random door.

Do you switch ?

Isn't it safer to just lock the doors?

HurstLlama said:

NickPalmer said:

HurstLlama said:

@NickPalmer

"The number of Labour voters who will vote Remain because they trust Osborne is zero, but the number who think that a Tory government free of EU constraints will run amok is substantial and needs to be mobilised."

I find that just so depressing. It may be good short term politics, but encouraging a false belief in in order to obtain a political goal just stores up trouble down the line and is corrosive for the political process and social cohesion.

There are good and honest arguments to be made for both sides of the debate and its a real shame that the politicians don't just stick to making them. To actively go out of their way to encourage false beliefs is, in my view, just wrong, so wrong.

Personally I agree with both parts (and I think corbyn does as well) - I don't trust Osborne's predictions, and I do think that a post-Brexit Tory government will be much more right-wing (and from my perspective harmful) than anything seen to date. So it's not an encouragement of a belief which we think false. We might be wrong, of course, but that's another matter!

Fair enough, mate, but just out of interest, specifically, in what areas of policy do you think this new right wing Tory government will "run amok"?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I have Thatcher's own words too. What do you think she meant when she said this in 1997?

"The majority of our people want Britain to be in Europe, and so do I.”

Darth Eagles, In politics what does it matter what people who are dead said or what they meant or how we think they would have reacted to the challenges of today. They are dead and gone, it is what people now think about today's problems that matter.

Churchill, Attlee, Bevan, Thatcher and all the rest were great people who served this country to the best of their abilities, but they are dead. The world has turned. They are history. We might just as well ask what the Great Duke (Wellington) would have made of it all.

Wellington would have admired Cameron. Old Etonian Tory PMs when dealing with Europe are the dogs dangly bits.

Oh yes,the Duke would have applauded Fake Dave stood next to foreign leaders making threats on Britain,especially the French and Yanks .

You're going to be a right grump if Remain win aren't you ?

And if LEAVE win, how about you?

I'm looking forward to it. It'll be an exciting time for PB.

Plus I start my holiday shortly thereafter.

What's not to like?

Hopefully not holidaying in France???

sealo0 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Bananas are grown in the Canaries and in Madeira, both of which are in the EU.

That's true but the Canares one can not be sold in the EU as the are too small and the wrong shape. Which does not go down well over there!!

David_Evershed said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MTimT said:

Bollocks. Most markets for most goods through most of history have not been regulated. Why should banana shape be regulated at all? Where does regulation 'for the sake of a level playing field' end? With no choice for the consumer?

Regulation is a political choice just like anything else. Much regulation should be pushed down to the lowest level of government appropriate, not all of it pushed up the the highest.

You are confusing two different points. Should banana shape be regulated at all? No, I would say not. But if it is regulated, it should be done at the single-market level, not at the individual country level, otherwise it acts as a non-tariff barrier.

I don't think any EU member countries grow bananas.

However, what are the actual EU regulations that apply to the import and sale of bananas?

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

Alanbrooke said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

David_Evershed said:

I don't think any EU member countries grow bananas.

However, what are the actual EU regulations that apply to the import and sale of bananas?

I've no idea what the regulations are, but there are certainly EU-grown bananas:

http://flavoursfromfrance.typepad.com/flavours-from-france/2011/04/french-bananas-from-guadeloupe-and-martinique.html

Closer than that, they grow on Mainau island in Lake Constance.

http://europeforvisitors.com/germany/bodensee/mainau.htm

Be honest, Mr. Brooke, did you actually know that little snippet before this morning or did you Google it up?

I have been to Mainau and if you like gardens it's really a beautiful spot to visit. As is all of Lake Constance. Mainau is at the Swiss end and Lindau at the Austrian, worth a trip if youre down that way.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I have Thatcher's own words too. What do you think she meant when she said this in 1997?

"The majority of our people want Britain to be in Europe, and so do I.”

Darth Eagles, In politics what does it matter what people who are dead said or what they meant or how we think they would have reacted to the challenges of today. They are dead and gone, it is what people now think about today's problems that matter.

Churchill, Attlee, Bevan, Thatcher and all the rest were great people who served this country to the best of their abilities, but they are dead. The world has turned. They are history. We might just as well ask what the Great Duke (Wellington) would have made of it all.

Wellington would have admired Cameron. Old Etonian Tory PMs when dealing with Europe are the dogs dangly bits.

Oh yes,the Duke would have applauded Fake Dave stood next to foreign leaders making threats on Britain,especially the French and Yanks .

You're going to be a right grump if Remain win aren't you ?

And if LEAVE win, how about you?

I'm looking forward to it. It'll be an exciting time for PB.

Plus I start my holiday shortly thereafter.

What's not to like?

Hopefully not holidaying in France???

Florida then Canada but not Quebec.

williamglenn said:

All this talk of bananas makes me wonder when the king over the water of British politics, the titan that is David Miliband, will 'intervene' in the referendum campaign.

LucyJones said:

David_Evershed said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MTimT said:

Bollocks. Most markets for most goods through most of history have not been regulated. Why should banana shape be regulated at all? Where does regulation 'for the sake of a level playing field' end? With no choice for the consumer?

Regulation is a political choice just like anything else. Much regulation should be pushed down to the lowest level of government appropriate, not all of it pushed up the the highest.

You are confusing two different points. Should banana shape be regulated at all? No, I would say not. But if it is regulated, it should be done at the single-market level, not at the individual country level, otherwise it acts as a non-tariff barrier.

I don't think any EU member countries grow bananas.

However, what are the actual EU regulations that apply to the import and sale of bananas?

Spain does (Canary islands).

HurstLlama said:

NickPalmer said:

HurstLlama said:

@NickPalmer

"The number of Labour voters who will vote Remain because they trust Osborne is zero, but the number who think that a Tory government free of EU constraints will run amok is substantial and needs to be mobilised."

I find that just so depressing. It may be good short term politics, but encouraging a false belief in in order to obtain a political goal just stores up trouble down the line and is corrosive for the political process and social cohesion.

There are good and honest arguments to be made for both sides of the debate and its a real shame that the politicians don't just stick to making them. To actively go out of their way to encourage false beliefs is, in my view, just wrong, so wrong.

Personally I agree with both parts (and I think corbyn does as well) - I don't trust Osborne's predictions, and I do think that a post-Brexit Tory government will be much more right-wing (and from my perspective harmful) than anything seen to date. So it's not an encouragement of a belief which we think false. We might be wrong, of course, but that's another matter!

Fair enough, mate, but just out of interest, specifically, in what areas of policy do you think this new right wing Tory government will "run amok"?

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I have Thatcher's own words too. What do you think she meant when she said this in 1997?

"The majority of our people want Britain to be in Europe, and so do I.”

Darth Eagles, In politics what does it matter what people who are dead said or what they meant or how we think they would have reacted to the challenges of today. They are dead and gone, it is what people now think about today's problems that matter.

Churchill, Attlee, Bevan, Thatcher and all the rest were great people who served this country to the best of their abilities, but they are dead. The world has turned. They are history. We might just as well ask what the Great Duke (Wellington) would have made of it all.

Wellington would have admired Cameron. Old Etonian Tory PMs when dealing with Europe are the dogs dangly bits.

Oh yes,the Duke would have applauded Fake Dave stood next to foreign leaders making threats on Britain,especially the French and Yanks .

You're going to be a right grump if Remain win aren't you ?

And if LEAVE win, how about you?

I'm looking forward to it. It'll be an exciting time for PB.

Plus I start my holiday shortly thereafter.

What's not to like?

Hopefully not holidaying in France???

Florida then Canada but not Quebec.

Disneyworld ?

Florida is proper "sticky" hot !