I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Here in lowland East London, you'd expect, I imagine, a big vote for REMAIN but there has been zero activity (apart from the Communist Party man inviting us all to a public meeting in Upton Park).
The City & East GLA seat, which covers Barking & Dagenham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and the City of London, saw a turnout of 43% last month. Now, while I suspect B&D might be more LEAVE, the other areas are probably more REMAIN.
The worry for REMAIN will be getting the vote out in areas like Newham and Tower Hamlets but they've done nothing to encourage that at street level thus far. The main element of that vote will be Labour who outpolled the Conservatives 4 to 1.
Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Manchester will all go heavily for Remain. I expect that smaller cities and large towns (eg Rotherham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Hull) will go for Leave.
I find the values split in this country now simply astonishing.
There are middle-class graduate friends of mine with whom I share almost nothing in common, politically.
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.
.....The biggest effect on me personally would be staffing shortages and rota gaps, so being pressed to do more with less.
Why would you have staffing shortages? Trained people would be high on the points scale if there are insufficient UK workers with those skills. A spanish doctor is not going to be blocked. WHen independent anlysis was done (quoted on sky or bbc a week ago) they found that almost 90% of EU migrants were to unskilled jobs.
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.
Both articles should put the willies right up Remain. Joe Public dismissing the alphabet soup, plagues, wardrobe monsters...
Makes you wonder what REMAIN have got left doesn't it? Meanwhile LEAVE were clearly keeping their powder dry and are now dominating the agenda with eye catching announcements...
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.
.....The biggest effect on me personally would be staffing shortages and rota gaps, so being pressed to do more with less.
Why would you have staffing shortages? Trained people would be high on the points scale if there are insufficient UK workers with those skills. A spanish doctor is not going to be blocked. WHen independent anlysis was done (quoted on sky or bbc a week ago) they found that almost 90% of EU migrants were to unskilled jobs.
We have staffing vacancies already. Roughly 30 000 Nurses and Medical staff across the NHS. We cannot currently fill them with the existing points system, and I cannot see that in the febrile anti-immigration post Leave it getting easier. Already we are finding it harder to recruit in Europe because of the Brexit debate (and also the worsening terms and conditions of the new contract).
FFS Lucy Thomas Dep Dir of StrongerIn is awful on Sky "artists have come out today for Remain"...
The WWF has said that nature is stronger in! (I'm not making that up.)
Doesn't surprise me. The established large 3rd sector organisations now constitute the charitable wing of the Labour Party, with the possible exception of the National Trust.
Helps to remind me who not to give money to in future.
"Is this another example of white actors having all the best parts?"
Versailles was an obvious take-off of GoT, but much poorer. Lavish, but with poor acting, and as we know Louis XIV doesn't die early, it lacks the surprise element. They even had a dwarf, although as you noted, he was black.
I can just imagine a committee constructing the script. "We need a dwarf, and lots of sex, so make some of it gay sex for diversity's sake, and let's make the dwarf black - that way we can crowbar in a scene where the queen has a brown baby. And let's make the male doctor stupid as they all were then, but make his daughter three hundred and fifty years ahead of her times and right-on."
Entertaining trash but not a patch on the real thing. Instead, a carry-on porn film.
Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Manchester will all go heavily for Remain. I expect that smaller cities and large towns (eg Rotherham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Hull) will go for Leave.
I find the values split in this country now simply astonishing.
There are middle-class graduate friends of mine with whom I share almost nothing in common, politically.
Is that surprising though? You are towards the rightward end of the centre-right. We know that most of the population (rightly or wrongly) don't identify with that position.
"Is this another example of white actors having all the best parts?"
Versailles was an obvious take-off of GoT, but much poorer. Lavish, but with poor acting, and as we know Louis XIV doesn't die early, it lacks the surprise element. They even had a dwarf, although as you noted, he was black.
I can just imagine a committee constructing the script. "We need a dwarf, and lots of sex, so make some of it gay sex for diversity's sake, and let's make the dwarf black - that way we can crowbar in a scene where the queen has a brown baby. And let's make the male doctor stupid as they all were then, but make his daughter three hundred and fifty years ahead of her times and right-on."
Entertaining trash but not a patch on the real thing. Instead, a carry-on porn film.
Monsieur really did swing both ways, though.
And there were rumours (almost certainly unfounded) that the Queen's dwarf did father a child on her.
Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Manchester will all go heavily for Remain. I expect that smaller cities and large towns (eg Rotherham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Hull) will go for Leave.
I find the values split in this country now simply astonishing.
There are middle-class graduate friends of mine with whom I share almost nothing in common, politically.
Is that surprising though? You are towards the rightward end of the centre-right. We know that most of the population (rightly or wrongly) don't identify with that position.
Do we?
Amongst AB graduates, yes, but over 50% voted UKIP or Tory at GE2015, and over 55% in England.
"Is this another example of white actors having all the best parts?"
Versailles was an obvious take-off of GoT, but much poorer. Lavish, but with poor acting, and as we know Louis XIV doesn't die early, it lacks the surprise element. They even had a dwarf, although as you noted, he was black.
I can just imagine a committee constructing the script. "We need a dwarf, and lots of sex, so make some of it gay sex for diversity's sake, and let's make the dwarf black - that way we can crowbar in a scene where the queen has a brown baby. And let's make the male doctor stupid as they all were then, but make his daughter three hundred and fifty years ahead of her times and right-on."
Entertaining trash but not a patch on the real thing. Instead, a carry-on porn film.
Some in summary, plenty of tits not enough dragons ;-)
Moderator - how do you kill this irritating nesting of comments?
Read the comments on the Vanilla site.
That's an 'it's on the web' type of not really terribly helpful reply.
The Vanilla site (a) puts the comments in the right order and (b) is much more mobile friendly than reading the comments on the main site.
Politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
As a matter of interest what do you find mobile-unfriendly about the main site? It seems fine to me (using Chrome on Android Marshmallow).
It doesn't scale for width as well as the Vanilla site, sometimes struggles with wide images/links and I find refreshing for new comments easier in the Vanilla site.
LOL you think this is bad.......wait until the EU referendum is over and the Chilcott report is published. The sh*t will hit the fan.....
Can Blair's reputation fall further?.....
IDS, IIRC was enthusiastically in support of the Iraq expedition.
Trouble is everyone who voted for it can claim that they were beguiled into supporting the war by Blair's hypnotic abilities.
IDS can't. He was leader of the Opposition and could - and should - have asked for a full briefing direct from the security services. It was his job *not* to take the PM at his word.
I wanted Hussein removed if and only if there was a proper plan in place for what happened afterwards.
Could IDS - or any LOTO - have learnt that there wasn't?
Ken Clarke as LOTO would have opposed the war.
Yes, he'd have expressed solidarity with France who had their own shoddy reasons for wanting Hussein kept in power.
So Ken was right and IDS wrong.
IDS wrong then, wrong now.
You must be happy being on the same side as Gerry Adams.
You're on the same side as George Galloway.
I salute your courage, your indefatigability etc
I'm delighted not to be feeble minded enough to care whose 'side' my considered view of events puts me on. If George Galloway wants to agree with me, that's dandy as far as I'm concerned - it's entirely his affair.
Perhaps you should raise that with the person who said Remainers on the same side as Gerry Adams
Or those Remainers who think Putin is a trump card.
ISIS shurely gets poll position? Vote Leave and get beheaded.
FFS Lucy Thomas Dep Dir of StrongerIn is awful on Sky "artists have come out today for Remain"...
Lucy Thomas, started out in lib dems, also worked in BBC and last year (AFAIK) seconded into govt to work on EU matters(not shown in linkedin) , overall aim of her being a leading light of REMAIN. One of Roland Rudd's protege's... All that investment leading to this? https://www.linkedin.com/in/lucyt
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Here in lowland East London, you'd expect, I imagine, a big vote for REMAIN but there has been zero activity (apart from the Communist Party man inviting us all to a public meeting in Upton Park).
The City & East GLA seat, which covers Barking & Dagenham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and the City of London, saw a turnout of 43% last month. Now, while I suspect B&D might be more LEAVE, the other areas are probably more REMAIN.
The worry for REMAIN will be getting the vote out in areas like Newham and Tower Hamlets but they've done nothing to encourage that at street level thus far. The main element of that vote will be Labour who outpolled the Conservatives 4 to 1.
I was most impressed by the CPGB chappy when he appeared on DP - late twenties Asian guy with long hair. Articulate, smart, urbane and sensible sounding.
Didn't agree with him, but he was a zillion time better than Corbyn.
Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Manchester will all go heavily for Remain. I expect that smaller cities and large towns (eg Rotherham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Hull) will go for Leave.
I find the values split in this country now simply astonishing.
There are middle-class graduate friends of mine with whom I share almost nothing in common, politically.
Is that surprising though? You are towards the rightward end of the centre-right. We know that most of the population (rightly or wrongly) don't identify with that position.
What's interesting that on EU/immigration/nationalism/diversity issues there's a significant minority of the Left that sides more strongly with UKIP and the Tory Right than it does with most people on the Left; and there's a significant minority of the Right that sides more strongly with the Left than it does with most people on the Right. I think we could be witnessing a realignment of British politics on those lines.
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
A sizeable number of the young simply see nations as no longer relevant, and they believe they have an international culture and identity, and so the argument just stops there.
FFS Lucy Thomas Dep Dir of StrongerIn is awful on Sky "artists have come out today for Remain"...
The WWF has said that nature is stronger in! (I'm not making that up.)
Of course it does. The WWF, as a rational organisation, recognises the importance of supranational bodies with legislative power for dealing with international issues.
Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Manchester will all go heavily for Remain. I expect that smaller cities and large towns (eg Rotherham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Hull) will go for Leave.
I find the values split in this country now simply astonishing.
There are middle-class graduate friends of mine with whom I share almost nothing in common, politically.
Is that surprising though? You are towards the rightward end of the centre-right. We know that most of the population (rightly or wrongly) don't identify with that position.
Do we?
Amongst AB graduates, yes, but over 50% voted UKIP or Tory at GE2015, and over 55% in England.
Yes, but that's all voters for a centre-right party, including LD>Con switchers and people who just made the forced choice of Cameron over Miliband. Whereas your own position (if I have understood you correctly) is on the right-wing of the Conservative Party. I'm not saying that's bad or good, just that it's not where the majority of people are.
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.
.....The biggest effect on me personally would be staffing shortages and rota gaps, so being pressed to do more with less.
Why would you have staffing shortages? Trained people would be high on the points scale if there are insufficient UK workers with those skills. A spanish doctor is not going to be blocked. WHen independent anlysis was done (quoted on sky or bbc a week ago) they found that almost 90% of EU migrants were to unskilled jobs.
We have staffing vacancies already. Roughly 30 000 Nurses and Medical staff across the NHS. We cannot currently fill them with the existing points system, and I cannot see that in the febrile anti-immigration post Leave it getting easier. Already we are finding it harder to recruit in Europe because of the Brexit debate (and also the worsening terms and conditions of the new contract).
Then change the points system (as we would be able to do) to positively encourage the 30K we need, and discourage unskilled folk just turning up on spec.
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
A sizeable number of the young simply see nations as no longer relevant, and they believe they have an international culture and identity, and so the argument just stops there.
South of Commercial Road/The Highway and East India Dock Rd in Tower Hamlets would be interesting. It's fairly conservative these days, and certainly very different to the northern part of the borough.
Quite a chunk of Barking and Dagenham will be Leave.
FFS Lucy Thomas Dep Dir of StrongerIn is awful on Sky "artists have come out today for Remain"...
The WWF has said that nature is stronger in! (I'm not making that up.)
Remain needs to get a grip in a serious way. And keep Lucy off the telly. When challenged on Sky about the latest MORI - she went all stupid and wibbled about "Boris' Blunder Bus".
It just sounded childish and vacuous. Darling needs to dial down the rhetoric too - he's babbling hyperbole. I can barely grasp what his arguments are.
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron
That's the fear/hope depending on your viewpoint.
They may also just hate the EU for good lefty reasons. The leader of the RMT, whose name I forget, was on Question Time the other day having a right old go at the EU - from the left. Maybe Vote Leave should wheel him out again. He was cogent, lucid and virulently anti-EU (probably Corbyn's true position). As a trade unionist, I think that he could help move the needle a bit. If you're a lefty Brit I can't see what attraction there is at all in being governed by non-British 'fiscal compact' Eurocrats.
Liz Kershaw of DJ fame totally monstered two Remain bigwigs on Sky - she's very well read and killed Ms TUC O'Grady from the Left. She'd be superb for Leave.
I'm really genuinely baffled by Ms O'Grady. Surely having an effectively limitless supply of labour prepared to undercut your members is not good for your members? What am I missing here?
Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Manchester will all go heavily for Remain. I expect that smaller cities and large towns (eg Rotherham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Hull) will go for Leave.
I find the values split in this country now simply astonishing.
There are middle-class graduate friends of mine with whom I share almost nothing in common, politically.
Is that surprising though? You are towards the rightward end of the centre-right. We know that most of the population (rightly or wrongly) don't identify with that position.
What's interesting that on EU/immigration/nationalism/diversity issues there's a significant minority of the Left that sides more strongly with UKIP and the Tory Right than it does with most people on the Left; and there's a significant minority of the Right that sides more strongly with the Left than it does with most people on the Right. I think we could be witnessing a realignment of British politics on those lines.
Maybe. FPTP is such a powerful anti-realigning force though.
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.
.....The biggest effect on me personally would be staffing shortages and rota gaps, so being pressed to do more with less.
Why would you have staffing shortages? Trained people would be high on the points scale if there are insufficient UK workers with those skills. A spanish doctor is not going to be blocked. WHen independent anlysis was done (quoted on sky or bbc a week ago) they found that almost 90% of EU migrants were to unskilled jobs.
We have staffing vacancies already. Roughly 30 000 Nurses and Medical staff across the NHS. We cannot currently fill them with the existing points system, and I cannot see that in the febrile anti-immigration post Leave it getting easier. Already we are finding it harder to recruit in Europe because of the Brexit debate (and also the worsening terms and conditions of the new contract).
Then change the points system (as we would be able to do) to positively encourage the 30K we need, and discourage unskilled folk just turning up on spec.
Perhaps “they" just don’t want to come! I wouldn’t want to emigrate to a country which is having a high profile argument about how it’s being destroyed by foreigners.
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.
Both articles should put the willies right up Remain. Joe Public dismissing the alphabet soup, plagues, wardrobe monsters...
Makes you wonder what REMAIN have got left doesn't it? Meanwhile LEAVE were clearly keeping their powder dry and are now dominating the agenda with eye catching announcements...
The 'private' ICM poll leaked to Sky was a great stunt. Makes it much more acceptable to vote Leave when over 50% agree with your private worries.
Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.
TSE you could canvass me . This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out. My family is split both sides. I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue. Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
Depends on what you consider important. If it is the economy, I'd pitch that and the spirit of Thatcher, and only Trump and Le Pen want Brexit whilst the great and the good are for Remain.
If the mosaic said you were left leaning, I'd go for workers' rights (and do you really want to see Boris/IDS/Gove as PM) and NHS workers' are overwhelming for Remain.
Whatever you choose this is a decision not to sit out.
Thanks TSE. I am concerned about democracy sovereignty.
For my daughter who has just got a new job promotion and is moving up from London to Leeds and will be buying a house in the next 3 months . The consideration is more short term interest rates , and workers rights.
Currently my close family is Father - Leave Mother- Undecided Wife- Remain Brother - Leave Brother - Remain Daughter- Remain Daughter- Not voting
We're a sovereign nation. We're having a referendum, if we vote Remain and in the future membership of the EU isn't in our interest we can have another referendum or elect a party who have a manifesto pledge to take us out.
But the Meeks' of this forum are trying to fetter that right, with all this "last referendum for a generation" crap, what about if the EU isn't in our interests in five years time ?
Hard to disagree with that. I find it hard to see a GE this year or next without the Government backing a vote of no confidence in itself, or repealing the FTPA and then calling one, and I'd expect the Tories to lose their majority if they did.
However, I am happy with my 7/1 bet on Cameron leaving office by the end of this year.
Unless the Government was miles ahead in the polls I can't see them going for auto-no-confidence. It would look terrible to the public - no way to start a campaign if it looks tight.
I guess it's possible that the Government could unintentionally lose a confidence vote.
Repealing the FTPA is going to take time as there would be the question of what mechanism to replace it with.
I'm coming to think the most likely route to an election is simply challenging Labour to vote for it. While they would be reluctant to vote for an election that they looked likely to lose, it would be very hard to explain to the Corbynista faithful why they had declined the invitation. I think there would be some serious disillusionment as a result.
The biggest question, though, is whether the Tories would be confident of winning, which I guess means increasing their majority. I agree with you that they could very well lose their majority entirely.
Of course, if Cameron were still leader then that brings Corbyn Next PM into play.
Do you have to repeal the FTP act?
If there is no confidence in Tory administration and in Labour Administration isn't there a provision for dissolution?
Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Manchester will all go heavily for Remain. I expect that smaller cities and large towns (eg Rotherham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Hull) will go for Leave.
I find the values split in this country now simply astonishing.
There are middle-class graduate friends of mine with whom I share almost nothing in common, politically.
Is that surprising though? You are towards the rightward end of the centre-right. We know that most of the population (rightly or wrongly) don't identify with that position.
What's interesting that on EU/immigration/nationalism/diversity issues there's a significant minority of the Left that sides more strongly with UKIP and the Tory Right than it does with most people on the Left; and there's a significant minority of the Right that sides more strongly with the Left than it does with most people on the Right. I think we could be witnessing a realignment of British politics on those lines.
You could be right.
I would always place nation above my personal political preferences. For example, I would take a Atlee style Labour Government of a self-governing independent Britain over a Tory Wet one that favoured continual EU integration.
This referendum has made me feel a much greater affinity with the patriotic Left, even perhaps more so than some of "my own side" who have been very rude and patronising towards Leavers, than I had ever thought possible.
When it comes down to it, although I have a view, I'm not sure I really care that much about whether corporation tax is 18% or 25%, or if my income tax threshold tracks inflation or earnings.
FFS Lucy Thomas Dep Dir of StrongerIn is awful on Sky "artists have come out today for Remain"...
The WWF has said that nature is stronger in! (I'm not making that up.)
Doesn't surprise me. The established large 3rd sector organisations now constitute the charitable wing of the Labour Party, with the possible exception of the National Trust.
Helps to remind me who not to give money to in future.
Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Manchester will all go heavily for Remain. I expect that smaller cities and large towns (eg Rotherham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Hull) will go for Leave.
I find the values split in this country now simply astonishing.
There are middle-class graduate friends of mine with whom I share almost nothing in common, politically.
Is that surprising though? You are towards the rightward end of the centre-right. We know that most of the population (rightly or wrongly) don't identify with that position.
There are several Tories like me on here also voting Leave - I'm at the Wet end. This isn't as binary as left vs right.
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.
.....The biggest effect on me personally would be staffing shortages and rota gaps, so being pressed to do more with less.
Why would you have staffing shortages? Trained people would be high on the points scale if there are insufficient UK workers with those skills. A spanish doctor is not going to be blocked. WHen independent anlysis was done (quoted on sky or bbc a week ago) they found that almost 90% of EU migrants were to unskilled jobs.
We have staffing vacancies already. Roughly 30 000 Nurses and Medical staff across the NHS. We cannot currently fill them with the existing points system, and I cannot see that in the febrile anti-immigration post Leave it getting easier. Already we are finding it harder to recruit in Europe because of the Brexit debate (and also the worsening terms and conditions of the new contract).
Then change the points system (as we would be able to do) to positively encourage the 30K we need, and discourage unskilled folk just turning up on spec.
With 149 000 non EU migrants last year, I cannot see there being pressure to increase the number.
Apart from work permit issues, there are issues concerning recognition of professional qualifications. With the single market and freedom of movement I can recruit Polish or Greek doctors or Portuguese nurses with ease. Recruiting non-EU is much more difficult, partly because of quotas for visas, but also the red tape involved in getting their qualifications approved which often takes six months.
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.
.....The biggest effect on me personally would be staffing shortages and rota gaps, so being pressed to do more with less.
Why would you have staffing shortages? Trained people would be high on the points scale if there are insufficient UK workers with those skills. A spanish doctor is not going to be blocked. WHen independent anlysis was done (quoted on sky or bbc a week ago) they found that almost 90% of EU migrants were to unskilled jobs.
We have staffing vacancies already. Roughly 30 000 Nurses and Medical staff across the NHS. We cannot currently fill them with the existing points system, and I cannot see that in the febrile anti-immigration post Leave it getting easier. Already we are finding it harder to recruit in Europe because of the Brexit debate (and also the worsening terms and conditions of the new contract).
Then change the points system (as we would be able to do) to positively encourage the 30K we need, and discourage unskilled folk just turning up on spec.
Perhaps “they" just don’t want to come! I wouldn’t want to emigrate to a country which is having a high profile argument about how it’s being destroyed by foreigners.
In which case we'll have to pay them more, and yes that might mean some monetary sacrifices for the rest of us. This isn't a pain free short term gain I accept, but it's not all about the money.
Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.
TSE you could canvass me . This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out. My family is split both sides. I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue. Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
Depends on what you consider important. If it is the economy, I'd pitch that and the spirit of Thatcher, and only Trump and Le Pen want Brexit whilst the great and the good are for Remain.
If the mosaic said you were left leaning, I'd go for workers' rights (and do you really want to see Boris/IDS/Gove as PM) and NHS workers' are overwhelming for Remain.
Whatever you choose this is a decision not to sit out.
Thanks TSE. I am concerned about democracy sovereignty.
For my daughter who has just got a new job promotion and is moving up from London to Leeds and will be buying a house in the next 3 months . The consideration is more short term interest rates , and workers rights.
Currently my close family is Father - Leave Mother- Undecided Wife- Remain Brother - Leave Brother - Remain Daughter- Remain Daughter- Not voting
We're a sovereign nation. We're having a referendum, if we vote Remain and in the future membership of the EU isn't in our interest we can have another referendum or elect a party who have a manifesto pledge to take us out.
But the Meeks' of this forum are trying to fetter that right, with all this "last referendum for a generation" crap, what about if the EU isn't in our interests in five years time ?
William Hague has promised us that if there's a vote for Remain, this issue will be settled for all time.
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
A sizeable number of the young simply see nations as no longer relevant, and they believe they have an international culture and identity, and so the argument just stops there.
And they surely have a good point.
I don't think so. Trade, travel and business is (and will become) ever more global but I see no evidence of the decline of the relevance and importance of nations and, indeed, believe they are a fundamental part of the human condition.
@Indigo What is the point of holding this referendum? If your only answer is "so we can get out of the EU", why are we bothering to hold one at all?
You have to acknowledge that there is something in it for those who want to stay too. What will you consider settled if Remain win and on what basis do you think you could revisit that decision in what time frame?
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
A sizeable number of the young simply see nations as no longer relevant, and they believe they have an international culture and identity, and so the argument just stops there.
And they surely have a good point.
I don't think so. Trade, travel and business is (and will become) ever more global but I see no evidence of the decline of the relevance and importance of nations and, indeed, believe they are a fundamental part of the human condition.
Nations in the earlier tribal sense or in the modern nation state sense? The human condition was around long before the nation state was invented.
Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Manchester will all go heavily for Remain. I expect that smaller cities and large towns (eg Rotherham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Hull) will go for Leave.
I find the values split in this country now simply astonishing.
There are middle-class graduate friends of mine with whom I share almost nothing in common, politically.
Is that surprising though? You are towards the rightward end of the centre-right. We know that most of the population (rightly or wrongly) don't identify with that position.
There are several Tories like me on here also voting Leave - I'm at the Wet end. This isn't as binary as left vs right.
Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.
TSE you could canvass me . This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out. My family is split both sides. I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue. Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
Depends on what you consider important. If it is the economy, I'd pitch that and the spirit of Thatcher, and only Trump and Le Pen want Brexit whilst the great and the good are for Remain.
If the mosaic said you were left leaning, I'd go for workers' rights (and do you really want to see Boris/IDS/Gove as PM) and NHS workers' are overwhelming for Remain.
Whatever you choose this is a decision not to sit out.
Thanks TSE. I am concerned about democracy sovereignty.
For my daughter who has just got a new job promotion and is moving up from London to Leeds and will be buying a house in the next 3 months . The consideration is more short term interest rates , and workers rights.
Currently my close family is Father - Leave Mother- Undecided Wife- Remain Brother - Leave Brother - Remain Daughter- Remain Daughter- Not voting
We're a sovereign nation. We're having a referendum, if we vote Remain and in the future membership of the EU isn't in our interest we can have another referendum or elect a party who have a manifesto pledge to take us out.
But the Meeks' of this forum are trying to fetter that right, with all this "last referendum for a generation" crap, what about if the EU isn't in our interests in five years time ?
William Hague has promised us that if there's a vote for Remain, this issue will be settled for all time.
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.
.....The biggest effect on me personally would be staffing shortages and rota gaps, so being pressed to do more with less.
Why would you have staffing shortages? Trained people would be high on the points scale if there are insufficient UK workers with those skills. A spanish doctor is not going to be blocked. WHen independent anlysis was done (quoted on sky or bbc a week ago) they found that almost 90% of EU migrants were to unskilled jobs.
We have staffing vacancies already. Roughly 30 000 Nurses and Medical staff across the NHS. We cannot currently fill them with the existing points system, and I cannot see that in the febrile anti-immigration post Leave it getting easier. Already we are finding it harder to recruit in Europe because of the Brexit debate (and also the worsening terms and conditions of the new contract).
What is this 30,000 as a % of the jobs? Churn in a large organisation would easily create a 20% turnover and a circa 5% vacancy rate if there is also substantial movement and growth. The NHS states that it employed last year 149,808 doctors. It also states that in 2014 it employed 32,467 more doctors than 2004. A staggering increase. and that it is going up now by 2.5% pa. http://www.nhsconfed.org/resources/key-statistics-on-the-nhs
Of the NHS's 1.3m workers circa 600k for "medically trained" could fall in your category of 30,000 vacancies, which is 5%.
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron
That's the fear/hope depending on your viewpoint.
They may also just hate the EU for good lefty reasons. The leader of the RMT, whose name I forget, was on Question Time the other day having a right old go at the EU - from the left. Maybe Vote Leave should wheel him out again. He was cogent, lucid and virulently anti-EU (probably Corbyn's true position). As a trade unionist, I think that he could help move the needle a bit. If you're a lefty Brit I can't see what attraction there is at all in being governed by non-British 'fiscal compact' Eurocrats.
Liz Kershaw of DJ fame totally monstered two Remain bigwigs on Sky - she's very well read and killed Ms TUC O'Grady from the Left. She'd be superb for Leave.
I'm really genuinely baffled by Ms O'Grady. Surely having an effectively limitless supply of labour prepared to undercut your members is not good for your members? What am I missing here?
Liz didn't get it either, nor how the EU protected rights "Aren't Labour doing that anymore?"
Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.
TSE you could canvass me . This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out. My family is split both sides. I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue. Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
Depends on what you consider important. If it is the economy, I'd pitch that and the spirit of Thatcher, and only Trump and Le Pen want Brexit whilst the great and the good are for Remain.
If the mosaic said you were left leaning, I'd go for workers' rights (and do you really want to see Boris/IDS/Gove as PM) and NHS workers' are overwhelming for Remain.
Whatever you choose this is a decision not to sit out.
Thanks TSE. I am concerned about democracy sovereignty.
For my daughter who has just got a new job promotion and is moving up from London to Leeds and will be buying a house in the next 3 months . The consideration is more short term interest rates , and workers rights.
Currently my close family is Father - Leave Mother- Undecided Wife- Remain Brother - Leave Brother - Remain Daughter- Remain Daughter- Not voting
We're a sovereign nation. We're having a referendum, if we vote Remain and in the future membership of the EU isn't in our interest we can have another referendum or elect a party who have a manifesto pledge to take us out.
But the Meeks' of this forum are trying to fetter that right, with all this "last referendum for a generation" crap, what about if the EU isn't in our interests in five years time ?
I wouldn't fall for it.
If a landslide Remain vote did occur those same people would be arguing that that same result had settled the issue for a generation, or for good.
On the basis of the areas I’ve worked in over the last two years, I’d guess:
Romford – Leave Dagenham – Leave Barking – Leave Epping Forest - Leave Ilford - Remain East Ham – apathetic/quite a lot not allowed to vote Edmonton – Remain but more leave than people imagine / many not allowed to vote Wood Green – apathetic/ many not allowed to vote Tottenham – depends on whether the people are Turkish or Kurdish Hackney - Remain Crouch End – Remain Muswell Hill – Remain /a fair amount not allowed to vote
Yup it's not easy, would require time, negotiation and compromise as I have suggested. Sunlit vistas do not appear on June 24th for sure, and we will need to accept migrants for certain and in reasonably sizeable numbers this is beyond any sane debate. However, at least it's under our (the British people) democratic control who is coming and going (yes there are always going to be illegals getting round any system I accept too), and I just do not accept that we can go on importing the population of Cardiff every year because it's a quick fix for employers of all kinds to fill a hole.
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
A sizeable number of the young simply see nations as no longer relevant, and they believe they have an international culture and identity, and so the argument just stops there.
And they surely have a good point.
I don't think so. Trade, travel and business is (and will become) ever more global but I see no evidence of the decline of the relevance and importance of nations and, indeed, believe they are a fundamental part of the human condition.
But the modern nation state is no more than 300-odd years old vs our species 100000 odd years.
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
A sizeable number of the young simply see nations as no longer relevant, and they believe they have an international culture and identity, and so the argument just stops there.
And they surely have a good point.
I don't think so. Trade, travel and business is (and will become) ever more global but I see no evidence of the decline of the relevance and importance of nations and, indeed, believe they are a fundamental part of the human condition.
But the modern nation state is no more than 300-odd years old vs our species 100000 odd years.
@Indigo What is the point of holding this referendum? If your only answer is "so we can get out of the EU", why are we bothering to hold one at all?
You have to acknowledge that there is something in it for those who want to stay too. What will you consider settled if Remain win and on what basis do you think you could revisit that decision in what time frame?
It would be settled while the circumstances were broadly the same. If the EU starting passing the hat around for a large bail out having said we wouldn't be involved, that would be a change in circumstances, if they struck down part of the renegotiation agreement, that would be a very substantial change in circumstances. I would probably add rejecting a EU change that was subject the the referendum lock would also be a time to re-examine if people still wanted to be in the EU.
I am not suggesting the sort of SNP "when the wind changes direction" sort of change in circumstances, there needs to be some certainly, but attempts to ride roughshod over the considerable doubts of the British people (assuming there isn't a large Remain vote ofc) should be time to reconsider our position. If nothing significant changes in that way, its clearly fair to ask the next generation of voters what they think, I would say 20 years would be fair.
Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Manchester will all go heavily for Remain. I expect that smaller cities and large towns (eg Rotherham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Hull) will go for Leave.
I find the values split in this country now simply astonishing.
There are middle-class graduate friends of mine with whom I share almost nothing in common, politically.
I think you will find that Liverpool Warrington and Manchester will go mainly Leave, especially WWC, I was at Wirral Rocks a couple of weeks ago at Tranmere Rovers ground near Birkenhead in a fully packed stadium and the audience were asked by the lead singer of one of the bands whether they were voting in or out and the vast majority had there hands up shouting "out" mainly WWC audience. Virtually no one saying remain
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
A sizeable number of the young simply see nations as no longer relevant, and they believe they have an international culture and identity, and so the argument just stops there.
And they surely have a good point.
I don't think so. Trade, travel and business is (and will become) ever more global but I see no evidence of the decline of the relevance and importance of nations and, indeed, believe they are a fundamental part of the human condition.
Nations in the earlier tribal sense or in the modern nation state sense? The human condition was around long before the nation state was invented.
A couple of people I know have a vision that we might move to a common global government one day.
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron
That's the fear/hope depending on your viewpoint.
They may also just hate the EU for good lefty reasons. The leader of the RMT, whose name I forget, was on Question Time the other day having a right old go at the EU - from the left. Maybe Vote Leave should wheel him out again. He was cogent, lucid and virulently anti-EU (probably Corbyn's true position). As a trade unionist, I think that he could help move the needle a bit. If you're a lefty Brit I can't see what attraction there is at all in being governed by non-British 'fiscal compact' Eurocrats.
Liz Kershaw of DJ fame totally monstered two Remain bigwigs on Sky - she's very well read and killed Ms TUC O'Grady from the Left. She'd be superb for Leave.
I'm really genuinely baffled by Ms O'Grady. Surely having an effectively limitless supply of labour prepared to undercut your members is not good for your members? What am I missing here?
Liz didn't get it either, nor how the EU protected rights "Aren't Labour doing that anymore?"
What the EU does is to ensure a level playing field in terms of workers' rights. Without these EU protections, there is a temptation for nations to engage in a race to the bottom in which workers' rights are dispensed with for the sake of competitivity.
Mr. Wanderer, that's a separate point, though. Mr. Royale's was about some believing nations don't really matter any more, not a comment on the composition of a specific nation-state.
On the previous article about Leave winning the Twitter war. Quantity rather than quality, but the same could apply to Remain's events of course...
@johnpmcdermott I've been corresponding with a PhD student at the Oxford Internet Institute. He's been looking at social media posts and the EU ref. 1/3
His sentiment analysis initially suggested that more than half of social media posts calling for #brexit were done by bots. 2/3
Alas: "Many of the accounts that our machine learning algorithms identified as bots were actually just very passionate voters ..." 3/3
So there you go: more than half of Brexit supporters spammy enough to alert the bot algorithms of Oxford's network scientists.
@Indigo Perhaps in the event of a Remain vote one of the bookies can offer odds on date bands for the first MP to call for a fresh referendum on EU membership. Regardless of the margin of victory, I would be covering the nearer date bands.
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
A sizeable number of the young simply see nations as no longer relevant, and they believe they have an international culture and identity, and so the argument just stops there.
And they surely have a good point.
I don't think so. Trade, travel and business is (and will become) ever more global but I see no evidence of the decline of the relevance and importance of nations and, indeed, believe they are a fundamental part of the human condition.
But the modern nation state is no more than 300-odd years old vs our species 100000 odd years.
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron
That's the fear/hope depending on your viewpoint.
They may also just hate the EU for good lefty reasons. The leader of the RMT, whose name I forget, was on Question Time the other day having a right old go at the EU - from the left. Maybe Vote Leave should wheel him out again. He was cogent, lucid and virulently anti-EU (probably Corbyn's true position). As a trade unionist, I think that he could help move the needle a bit. If you're a lefty Brit I can't see what attraction there is at all in being governed by non-British 'fiscal compact' Eurocrats.
Liz Kershaw of DJ fame totally monstered two Remain bigwigs on Sky - she's very well read and killed Ms TUC O'Grady from the Left. She'd be superb for Leave.
I'm really genuinely baffled by Ms O'Grady. Surely having an effectively limitless supply of labour prepared to undercut your members is not good for your members? What am I missing here?
Liz didn't get it either, nor how the EU protected rights "Aren't Labour doing that anymore?"
What the EU does is to ensure a level playing field in terms of workers' rights. Without these EU protections, there is a temptation for nations to engage in a race to the bottom in which workers' rights are dispensed with for the sake of competitivity.
What about the competitiveness outside the EU. EU workers are currently having a very well protected, sit on the edge of that level playing field as all their jobs slowly move to Asia.
@Indigo Perhaps in the event of a Remain vote one of the bookies can offer odds on date bands for the first MP to call for a fresh referendum on EU membership. Regardless of the margin of victory, I would be covering the nearer date bands.
Me too. But it's like calling for the PM to resign.. happens all the time.
Why are these hard-left people so moronically angry? Their deity, the blessed Corbyn, remains as the leader. It looks like nobody can shift him for at least a couple of years. This was not supposed to happen in a million years. They should be deliriously happy.
FFS Lucy Thomas Dep Dir of StrongerIn is awful on Sky "artists have come out today for Remain"...
The WWF has said that nature is stronger in! (I'm not making that up.)
Of course it does. The WWF, as a rational organisation, recognises the importance of supranational bodies with legislative power for dealing with international issues.
Why is the continent the right level for dealing with these? Shouldn't it be decided at a global level?
Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.
TSE you could canvass me . This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out. My family is split both sides. I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue. Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
Depends on what you consider important. If it is the economy, I'd pitch that and the spirit of Thatcher, and only Trump and Le Pen want Brexit whilst the great and the good are for Remain.
If the mosaic said you were left leaning, I'd go for workers' rights (and do you really want to see Boris/IDS/Gove as PM) and NHS workers' are overwhelming for Remain.
Whatever you choose this is a decision not to sit out.
Thanks TSE. I am concerned about democracy sovereignty.
For my daughter who has just got a new job promotion and is moving up from London to Leeds and will be buying a house in the next 3 months . The consideration is more short term interest rates , and workers rights.
Currently my close family is Father - Leave Mother- Undecided Wife- Remain Brother - Leave Brother - Remain Daughter- Remain Daughter- Not voting
We're a sovereign nation. We're having a referendum, if we vote Remain and in the future membership of the EU isn't in our interest we can have another referendum or elect a party who have a manifesto pledge to take us out.
But the Meeks' of this forum are trying to fetter that right, with all this "last referendum for a generation" crap, what about if the EU isn't in our interests in five years time ?
William Hague has promised us that if there's a vote for Remain, this issue will be settled for all time.
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron
That's the fear/hope depending on your viewpoint.
They may also just hate the EU for good lefty reasons. The leader of the RMT, whose name I forget, was on Question Time the other day having a right old go at the EU - from the left. Maybe Vote Leave should wheel him out again. He was cogent, lucid and virulently anti-EU (probably Corbyn's true position). As a trade unionist, I think that he could help move the needle a bit. If you're a lefty Brit I can't see what attraction there is at all in being governed by non-British 'fiscal compact' Eurocrats.
Liz Kershaw of DJ fame totally monstered two Remain bigwigs on Sky - she's very well read and killed Ms TUC O'Grady from the Left. She'd be superb for Leave.
I'm really genuinely baffled by Ms O'Grady. Surely having an effectively limitless supply of labour prepared to undercut your members is not good for your members? What am I missing here?
You assume that she should understand the laws of supply and demand. But why would a socialist understand that? Keir Hardie did but he is long gone.
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron
That's the fear/hope depending on your viewpoint.
They may also just hate the EU for good lefty reasons. The leader of the RMT, whose name I forget, was on Question Time the other day having a right old go at the EU - from the left. Maybe Vote Leave should wheel him out again. He was cogent, lucid and virulently anti-EU (probably Corbyn's true position). As a trade unionist, I think that he could help move the needle a bit. If you're a lefty Brit I can't see what attraction there is at all in being governed by non-British 'fiscal compact' Eurocrats.
Liz Kershaw of DJ fame totally monstered two Remain bigwigs on Sky - she's very well read and killed Ms TUC O'Grady from the Left. She'd be superb for Leave.
I'm really genuinely baffled by Ms O'Grady. Surely having an effectively limitless supply of labour prepared to undercut your members is not good for your members? What am I missing here?
Liz didn't get it either, nor how the EU protected rights "Aren't Labour doing that anymore?"
What the EU does is to ensure a level playing field in terms of workers' rights. Without these EU protections, there is a temptation for nations to engage in a race to the bottom in which workers' rights are dispensed with for the sake of competitivity.
And yet the current Tory government are raising the minimum wage to £9ph, which is a move that will undoubtedly make British companies less competitive.
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
A sizeable number of the young simply see nations as no longer relevant, and they believe they have an international culture and identity, and so the argument just stops there.
And they surely have a good point.
I don't think so. Trade, travel and business is (and will become) ever more global but I see no evidence of the decline of the relevance and importance of nations and, indeed, believe they are a fundamental part of the human condition.
Nations in the earlier tribal sense or in the modern nation state sense? The human condition was around long before the nation state was invented.
A couple of people I know have a vision that we might move to a common global government one day.
I think that's an awful idea.
I imagine that many of the Mercians, Iceni, Cantiaci etc. of ancient Britain would also have found the idea of a common British government an awful idea too. Especially the tribal leaders, who would have feared the loss of status resulting from no longer being big fish in little ponds.
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron
That's the fear/hope depending on your viewpoint.
They may also just hate the EU for good lefty reasons. The leader of the RMT, whose name I forget, was on Question Time the other day having a right old go at the EU - from the left. Maybe Vote Leave should wheel him out again. He was cogent, lucid and virulently anti-EU (probably Corbyn's true position). As a trade unionist, I think that he could help move the needle a bit. If you're a lefty Brit I can't see what attraction there is at all in being governed by non-British 'fiscal compact' Eurocrats.
Liz Kershaw of DJ fame totally monstered two Remain bigwigs on Sky - she's very well read and killed Ms TUC O'Grady from the Left. She'd be superb for Leave.
I'm really genuinely baffled by Ms O'Grady. Surely having an effectively limitless supply of labour prepared to undercut your members is not good for your members? What am I missing here?
Liz didn't get it either, nor how the EU protected rights "Aren't Labour doing that anymore?"
What the EU does is to ensure a level playing field in terms of workers' rights. Without these EU protections, there is a temptation for nations to engage in a race to the bottom in which workers' rights are dispensed with for the sake of competitivity.
And yet the current Tory government are raising the minimum wage to £9ph, which is a move that will undoubtedly make British companies less competitive.
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
A sizeable number of the young simply see nations as no longer relevant, and they believe they have an international culture and identity, and so the argument just stops there.
And they surely have a good point.
I don't think so. Trade, travel and business is (and will become) ever more global but I see no evidence of the decline of the relevance and importance of nations and, indeed, believe they are a fundamental part of the human condition.
But the modern nation state is no more than 300-odd years old vs our species 100000 odd years.
Bwahaha, what a ludicrous argument. Italy didn't exist before 1860, Spain was ruled by generals within living memory.
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron
That's the fear/hope depending on your viewpoint.
They may also just hate the EU for good lefty reasons. The leader of the RMT, whose name I forget, was on Question Time the other day having a right old go at the EU - from the left. Maybe Vote Leave should wheel him out again. He was cogent, lucid and virulently anti-EU (probably Corbyn's true position). As a trade unionist, I think that he could help move the needle a bit. If you're a lefty Brit I can't see what attraction there is at all in being governed by non-British 'fiscal compact' Eurocrats.
Liz Kershaw of DJ fame totally monstered two Remain bigwigs on Sky - she's very well read and killed Ms TUC O'Grady from the Left. She'd be superb for Leave.
I'm really genuinely baffled by Ms O'Grady. Surely having an effectively limitless supply of labour prepared to undercut your members is not good for your members? What am I missing here?
You assume that she should understand the laws of supply and demand. But why would a socialist understand that? Keir Hardie did but he is long gone.
Perhaps she is aware of the "lump of labour" fallacy?
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
A sizeable number of the young simply see nations as no longer relevant, and they believe they have an international culture and identity, and so the argument just stops there.
And they surely have a good point.
I don't think so. Trade, travel and business is (and will become) ever more global but I see no evidence of the decline of the relevance and importance of nations and, indeed, believe they are a fundamental part of the human condition.
Nations in the earlier tribal sense or in the modern nation state sense? The human condition was around long before the nation state was invented.
A couple of people I know have a vision that we might move to a common global government one day.
I think that's an awful idea.
I imagine that many of the Mercians, Iceni, Cantiaci etc. of ancient Britain would also have found the idea of a common British government an awful idea too. Especially the tribal leaders, who would have feared the loss of status resulting from no longer being big fish in little ponds.
Maybe they would, but so what? The trend over the past 80 years or so, has been to create smaller political units, in place of larger ones.
If LEAVE win by a narrow margin, how will Cameron and the Civil Service devise a way to avoid exiting the EU?
The EU will make a big offer to the UK, an "unprecedented" offer no less, that completely changes everything and it is only the right to offer the people another Referendum.
@Indigo What is the point of holding this referendum? If your only answer is "so we can get out of the EU", why are we bothering to hold one at all?
You have to acknowledge that there is something in it for those who want to stay too. What will you consider settled if Remain win and on what basis do you think you could revisit that decision in what time frame?
High 50's and probably fifteen years. Genuine "Black Swans" aside.
To be fair Euroland is going to have to change too (which is why to me Remain is not the status quo), but it's going to take years for them to lumber into action and actually see how that works out for us before we could realistically consider revisiting and only if we wanted to of course.
What has disappointed me is the lack of idealism (honesty?) from all sides (Brexit, Remain and the EU itself) about what they "want". There's the EEA/WTO thing unresolved for Brexit and is it "thus far and not an integrating inch further" for Remain"? As for the EU I would have so much more time for the whole thing if Juncker or Tusk or whoever said "yes it's true we want a United State of Europe, one set of taxes, armed forces, nationality, the works. Here's a plan to do it by 2025". It's a perfectly respectable view and possibly attractive (yes I did say that). All we get is a sort of 21st century Austria-Hungary/Holy Roman Empire fudge, mish mash, ill thought through compromise that reflects the fact nobody is prepared to make an honest stand for the "idea".
Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....
Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Manchester will all go heavily for Remain. I expect that smaller cities and large towns (eg Rotherham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Hull) will go for Leave.
I find the values split in this country now simply astonishing.
There are middle-class graduate friends of mine with whom I share almost nothing in common, politically.
I think you will find that Liverpool Warrington and Manchester will go mainly Leave, especially WWC, I was at Wirral Rocks a couple of weeks ago at Tranmere Rovers ground near Birkenhead in a fully packed stadium and the audience were asked by the lead singer of one of the bands whether they were voting in or out and the vast majority had there hands up shouting "out" mainly WWC audience. Virtually no one saying remain
It is quite instructive to look at non political areas of the internet. There is a good thread on the Leicester City supporters forum "FoxesTalk" (where I assumed the moniker Foxinsox many years ago!) on the subject of Brexit. It is surprisingly intelligent on the subject, with some erudite contributions that would fit well in PB on a good day. The sentiment of FoxesTalk posters is quite strongly for Remain. It is hard to know the demographics though!
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.
.....The biggest effect on me personally would be staffing shortages and rota gaps, so being pressed to do more with less.
Why would you have staffing shortages? Trained people would be high on the points scale if there are insufficient UK workers with those skills. A spanish doctor is not going to be blocked. WHen independent anlysis was done (quoted on sky or bbc a week ago) they found that almost 90% of EU migrants were to unskilled jobs.
We have staffing vacancies already. Roughly 30 000 Nurses and Medical staff across the NHS. We cannot currently fill them with the existing points system, and I cannot see that in the febrile anti-immigration post Leave it getting easier. Already we are finding it harder to recruit in Europe because of the Brexit debate (and also the worsening terms and conditions of the new contract).
A new points system would allow more qualified non-EU medics into the country.
Currently to keep total immigrant numbers down, some non EU medics are kept out. Once we LEAVE we will be able to cut down on unqualified EU immigrants and allow in more qualified non EU medics.
Corbyn media handling makes Gordon look like the ultimate charmer. He even kicked out the Vice News guy, who is a supporter, and got very very shirty when he asked one hard-ish question.
Mr. Royale, as well as people easily reaching different conclusions from the same information, it's easier to be on the consensus/fashionable side of the argument. It's not long ago UKIP were just a joke and the race card was played whenever immigration was raised.
A sizeable number of the young simply see nations as no longer relevant, and they believe they have an international culture and identity, and so the argument just stops there.
And they surely have a good point.
I don't think so. Trade, travel and business is (and will become) ever more global but I see no evidence of the decline of the relevance and importance of nations and, indeed, believe they are a fundamental part of the human condition.
But the modern nation state is no more than 300-odd years old vs our species 100000 odd years.
Bwahaha, what a ludicrous argument. Italy didn't exist before 1860, Spain was ruled by generals within living memory.
@johnpmcdermott I've been corresponding with a PhD student at the Oxford Internet Institute. He's been looking at social media posts and the EU ref. 1/3
His sentiment analysis initially suggested that more than half of social media posts calling for #brexit were done by bots. 2/3
Alas: "Many of the accounts that our machine learning algorithms identified as bots were actually just very passionate voters ..." 3/3
So there you go: more than half of Brexit supporters spammy enough to alert the bot algorithms of Oxford's network scientists.
If you search twitter to see how people with postal votes have voted, at first instance it looks like most have voted leave but then when you get past the multiple posts from singular posters, more people have voted remain.
Comments
The City & East GLA seat, which covers Barking & Dagenham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and the City of London, saw a turnout of 43% last month. Now, while I suspect B&D might be more LEAVE, the other areas are probably more REMAIN.
The worry for REMAIN will be getting the vote out in areas like Newham and Tower Hamlets but they've done nothing to encourage that at street level thus far. The main element of that vote will be Labour who outpolled the Conservatives 4 to 1.
There are middle-class graduate friends of mine with whom I share almost nothing in common, politically.
The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg gets called.
She gets hissed by some in the audience. Corbyn urges people to stop.
Rather unfortunate given what's been going on with Livingstone and others.
Helps to remind me who not to give money to in future.
"Is this another example of white actors having all the best parts?"
Versailles was an obvious take-off of GoT, but much poorer. Lavish, but with poor acting, and as we know Louis XIV doesn't die early, it lacks the surprise element. They even had a dwarf, although as you noted, he was black.
I can just imagine a committee constructing the script. "We need a dwarf, and lots of sex, so make some of it gay sex for diversity's sake, and let's make the dwarf black - that way we can crowbar in a scene where the queen has a brown baby. And let's make the male doctor stupid as they all were then, but make his daughter three hundred and fifty years ahead of her times and right-on."
Entertaining trash but not a patch on the real thing. Instead, a carry-on porn film.
And there were rumours (almost certainly unfounded) that the Queen's dwarf did father a child on her.
Amongst AB graduates, yes, but over 50% voted UKIP or Tory at GE2015, and over 55% in England.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/lucyt
Didn't agree with him, but he was a zillion time better than Corbyn.
Quite a chunk of Barking and Dagenham will be Leave.
It just sounded childish and vacuous. Darling needs to dial down the rhetoric too - he's babbling hyperbole. I can barely grasp what his arguments are.
That message will be fairly toxic with many centrists.
It's Remain 2020, possibly.
I wouldn’t want to emigrate to a country which is having a high profile argument about how it’s being destroyed by foreigners.
If there is no confidence in Tory administration and in Labour Administration isn't there a provision for dissolution?
I would always place nation above my personal political preferences. For example, I would take a Atlee style Labour Government of a self-governing independent Britain over a Tory Wet one that favoured continual EU integration.
This referendum has made me feel a much greater affinity with the patriotic Left, even perhaps more so than some of "my own side" who have been very rude and patronising towards Leavers, than I had ever thought possible.
When it comes down to it, although I have a view, I'm not sure I really care that much about whether corporation tax is 18% or 25%, or if my income tax threshold tracks inflation or earnings.
There are far more important things in life.
http://www.wwf.eu/what_we_do/eu_world/eu_funded_projects/
Apart from work permit issues, there are issues concerning recognition of professional qualifications. With the single market and freedom of movement I can recruit Polish or Greek doctors or Portuguese nurses with ease. Recruiting non-EU is much more difficult, partly because of quotas for visas, but also the red tape involved in getting their qualifications approved which often takes six months.
Nothing wrong with lots of tits.
I pride myself on bring shallow, but Versailles was too shallow even for me.
You have to acknowledge that there is something in it for those who want to stay too. What will you consider settled if Remain win and on what basis do you think you could revisit that decision in what time frame?
I do wonder how they think governance should work in a world without nations. How democracy and accountability would exist.
The NHS states that it employed last year 149,808 doctors. It also states that in 2014 it employed 32,467 more doctors than 2004. A staggering increase. and that it is going up now by 2.5% pa.
http://www.nhsconfed.org/resources/key-statistics-on-the-nhs
Of the NHS's 1.3m workers circa 600k for "medically trained" could fall in your category of 30,000 vacancies, which is 5%.
If a landslide Remain vote did occur those same people would be arguing that that same result had settled the issue for a generation, or for good.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/738313888010260480
Romford – Leave
Dagenham – Leave
Barking – Leave
Epping Forest - Leave
Ilford - Remain
East Ham – apathetic/quite a lot not allowed to vote
Edmonton – Remain but more leave than people imagine / many not allowed to vote
Wood Green – apathetic/ many not allowed to vote
Tottenham – depends on whether the people are Turkish or Kurdish
Hackney - Remain
Crouch End – Remain
Muswell Hill – Remain /a fair amount not allowed to vote
Yup it's not easy, would require time, negotiation and compromise as I have suggested. Sunlit vistas do not appear on June 24th for sure, and we will need to accept migrants for certain and in reasonably sizeable numbers this is beyond any sane debate. However, at least it's under our (the British people) democratic control who is coming and going (yes there are always going to be illegals getting round any system I accept too), and I just do not accept that we can go on importing the population of Cardiff every year because it's a quick fix for employers of all kinds to fill a hole.
I am not suggesting the sort of SNP "when the wind changes direction" sort of change in circumstances, there needs to be some certainly, but attempts to ride roughshod over the considerable doubts of the British people (assuming there isn't a large Remain vote ofc) should be time to reconsider our position. If nothing significant changes in that way, its clearly fair to ask the next generation of voters what they think, I would say 20 years would be fair.
ITV
The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg is booed and hissed at by Jeremy Corbyn's supporters as she attempts to ask a question
https://t.co/wzfxtCyhuP
I think that's an awful idea.
@johnpmcdermott
I've been corresponding with a PhD student at the Oxford Internet Institute. He's been looking at social media posts and the EU ref. 1/3
His sentiment analysis initially suggested that more than half of social media posts calling for #brexit were done by bots. 2/3
Alas: "Many of the accounts that our machine learning algorithms identified as bots were actually just very passionate voters ..." 3/3
So there you go: more than half of Brexit supporters spammy enough to alert the bot algorithms of Oxford's network scientists.
What @bbclaurak and @GuardianHeather and the rest of the press just experienced is the true face of Corbyn's new politics. Vile.
The WWF weren't the first organisation interested in that site and not the first organisation Woking BC tried to get to that site.
Second paragraph
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/738309668481736704
To be fair Euroland is going to have to change too (which is why to me Remain is not the status quo), but it's going to take years for them to lumber into action and actually see how that works out for us before we could realistically consider revisiting and only if we wanted to of course.
What has disappointed me is the lack of idealism (honesty?) from all sides (Brexit, Remain and the EU itself) about what they "want". There's the EEA/WTO thing unresolved for Brexit and is it "thus far and not an integrating inch further" for Remain"? As for the EU I would have so much more time for the whole thing if Juncker or Tusk or whoever said "yes it's true we want a United State of Europe, one set of taxes, armed forces, nationality, the works. Here's a plan to do it by 2025". It's a perfectly respectable view and possibly attractive (yes I did say that). All we get is a sort of 21st century Austria-Hungary/Holy Roman Empire fudge, mish mash, ill thought through compromise that reflects the fact nobody is prepared to make an honest stand for the "idea".
- 61% Remain Scotland
- 58% NI
- 51% Wales
- 51% England LEAVE
Anything?
Currently to keep total immigrant numbers down, some non EU medics are kept out. Once we LEAVE we will be able to cut down on unqualified EU immigrants and allow in more qualified non EU medics.