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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leave’s major advantage in the last three weeks of the camp
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leave’s major advantage in the last three weeks of the campaign. The Tory press is on their side
One of the most fascinating aspects of this referendum campaign is a Tory PM and most of the Tory Press being on opposite sides. As Neil Kinnock and Ed Miliband can attest the press can very brutal. Whilst I don’t subscribe to the belief that it was solely The Sun wot won it at the 1992 general election, as a politician it is much more advantageous to have media on your side.
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http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/eu-referendum-count
EU Immigration
58% unhappy if current levels continue
55% believe bad for NHS
67% has put pressure on housing #Brexit
http://news.sky.com/story/1705440/pm-faces-sky-news-test-as-remain-loses-ground
I'm down grading my forecast to 57/43 Remain/Leave.
However, I think both the Mail and The Times have a healthy digital online model, and the Sun survive in a form as a manual/working man's paper for quite some time, but I think the rest will just continue to shrink.
Worth noting that Austria is a part of the EU while Australia is not, I know which I think is more tolerant and has a better reputation nowadays,
These are the things that have been driving old Labour, working class voters into the arms of other parties, and which will see (I guess) 40%-50% of Labour voters plump for leave outside the usual metro/uni areas.
As Farage observed yesterday, Tory Leavers have now embraced UKIP immigration policy. It's a funny old world.
I get really annoyed with the Mail mobile site - if I share a story, it automatically moves me to the next article. I want to read the comments.
Incidentally, David Aaronovitch saying today he's seriously thinking of voting Tory, as he can't bear Corbyn. He's been moving crabwise to the right for decades - but his confession still surprised me.
(Source. BBC)
"Or else it doesn't, you know. The name of the song is called ‘Haddocks' Eyes.’”
“Oh, that's the name of the song, is it?" Alice said, trying to feel interested.
“No, you don't understand,” the Knight said, looking a little vexed. “That's what the name is called. The name really is ‘The Aged Aged Man.’”
“Then I ought to have said ‘That's what the song is called’?” Alice corrected herself.
“No, you oughtn't: that's quite another thing! The song is called ‘Ways And Means’: but that's only what it's called, you know!”
“Well, what is the song, then?” said Alice, who was by this time completely bewildered.
“I was coming to that,” the Knight said. “The song really is ‘A-sitting On A Gate’: and the tune's my own invention.”"
---
Someone should try learning a little grammar and syntax analysis.
Next week I'm off to see Don Giovanni at the Ulverston Music Festival and last night my beloved gave me the DVD of Losey's film of the opera, filmed in the Palladian villas in the Veneto. A real treat!
Labour have churned out a lot of hyperbolic nonsense about these things, but the public are wise to the left's financial incontinence, and have seen that ever more money never seems to sort these things out so they have looked elsewhere for an answer.
They have concluded that it's the system. Excessive demand and poor allocation of resources.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3620993/Labour-s-Naz-Shah-faces-spending-quiz-Documents-hotels-bills-peer-joined-campaign-trail-declared-national-expenditure.html
Has anyone told Channel 4 and Michael Crick?
That aside, you have equated declining circulation of dead tree press with influence. They are not synonymous. We are influenced by the newspapers in many ways: they are viewed online and on newsstands. They still find their way into waiting rooms. They also help direct a meme to which responses are often required: in other words, they help hold politicians and others to account. Over matters such as tax havens, expenses and even piggies they have proved still to have considerable influence.
What cannot easily been gainsaid is that this is an onslaught unlike anything seen in the last fifty years. Not even the Welsh Windbag endured this level of sustained attack. I cannot see how Remain can survive this and now expect the final referendum result to be:
Leave 55-59%
Remain 40-45%
And before you lampoon this I called the General Election spot on.
Incomes are now rising quite strongly in real terms after a very prolonged period of stagnation and even falls after 2008. This is partly being driven by the living wage.
Actual employment is at a record high and most of the recent increases have been in full time employment. Clearly there are issues with the abuse of "self employment" but Universal Credit will address these.
Housing production has picked up substantially from a very low base. It is still too low, especially with a net 330,000 immigrants also needing housed.
I remain of the view that this government has done pretty well in very difficult circumstances. A comparator with our EU friends relative performance confirms that. It is, at the risk of understatement, unfortunate that a competent government is tearing itself apart over the EU. I fear what comes next will not be as good in or out.
Yep it's globally huge.
Bizarro world? The world's the same as it ever was, it's the PM that's behaving Bizarro.
Old Holborn
1989 - Eastern Europe
"If we leave the Soviet Union, we risk not trading with Moscow. Better to stay under undemocratic rule"
#Brexit
Dave is following in the footsteps of Thatcher.
The government - supported by Leavers - has made choices. The main one is to seek to eliminate the deficit by 2020. That has meant delivering significant cuts to public services and squeezing tax revenues. The least advantaged have borne the bulk of the cost on both fronts. I can see why blaming immigrants is more attractive for parts of the right, though.
Labour under Corbyn might just be playing a very clever game by keeping quiet on the EU.
#BREAKING: Turkey says German vote on Armenian 'genocide' a 'test of friendship'
That said its increasing global digital content dilutes its political voice back home. A stream of Kim Kardasian articles packs less political punch.
However I don't know if anyone outside the UK is paying much attention.
Actually I think the body whose reputation may be most affected is the Conservative Party.
Dave = Sir Winston Churchill
Tory Leavers = The modern day Lord Halifaxes
George Osborne = Field Marshall Sir Alan Brooke
The public are entitled to ask the government to attempt some sort of coherence in its policies. Whatever level of immigration you choose to have then it is incumbent on the government to plan properly for the necessary infrastructure. If that is not done then it's not surprising that the public will look to reduce the demand.
This is a mess caused, in part, because of a refusal by all governments to be honest about immigration and its consequences, both good and bad.
If Osborne gets anywhere near the leadership I will be resigning my membership.
Miss Plato, I wonder if Bizarro-Cameron ought to be Noremac. Could be wrong, not my area, but I think Bizarro things get their names reversed.
Miss Plato 2, when's the vote take place?
But yes, we are heading for an unstable minority government which will be unable to implement its legislative program and will struggle to even pass a budget. I agree with Southam that an election before 2020 looks inevitable. The only question is how long the remnants of this government will seek to hang on.
I loved Devil, and that Neil encounter was just awful. He pops up very occasionally - but for job reasons he just talks about software.
How is it that ever since becoming a Tory MP he has been happy to stand on a Tory manifesto that promises lower immigration and an Australian style points system and whilst Tory leader has promised "no ifs no buts" to bring immigration to under 100,000 per year, but suddenly anyone advocating exactly these policies will "crash the economy"?????
WHAT A CHARLATAN!!
I've been chatting to a Labour constituency chair who reckons 1/3rd his members are strongly anti the EU and that there's deep frustration and anger.
Much more anecdotal, someone I know well contacted me the other day to say they were genuinely on the fence until they saw how Cameron has conducted himself. They are now voting Leave.
This referendum could be where we hear the crash of the dead tree press toppling over.
The 'Tory press' is reflective of a good deal of public opinion for Tory and UKIP voters, and a good deal of Labour voters too.
Politicians could ignore the press, but they'd also be ignoring a good deal of their voters.
Actually both stables (Mail and MoS) have printed some extremely good, thoughtful, articles on both sides of the fence. So you're really just spewing out your own innate prejudices.
In any case, I doubt we could agree on framing terms.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/737525064199856128/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw