politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leave’s major advantage in the last three weeks of the camp
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You did, and it doesn't.AlastairMeeks said:@ThreeQuidder Let's take it slowly.
I said that the article admitted that the premise was untrue.
If the article said the proposal has been abandoned, it would have, but it doesn't.
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@Cyclefree
Fair taxes are those paid by other people, and the same principle applies to cuts in spending.
In my own little corner of austerity, NHS acute Trusts were £2.6 billion in deficit last year. NHS spending is down to 6.2% of GDP, from near 8% and despite an aging population. The future looks bleak and ultimately you cannot get a quart into a pint pot.
I cannot see prospects improving in the forseeable. If I were younger I would emigrate.0 -
@ThreeQuidder I shall leave others to decide. You are clearly beyond reasoning with.0
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Yeah, don't worry about Britain's future vote to get rid of a guy who will be gone in a couple of years anyway.Patrick said:
I'm surprised more on the left don't make more of this angle. Corbyn has been all but silent during the campaign. A Leave vote would overnight destroy Dave and Osborne and plunge the Tories into a sort of chaos. No doubt order would emerge with someone like Gove as PM - but that must be electorally good for Labour.Morris_Dancer said:Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
Vote LEAVE to destroy Cameron and the Tories0 -
Mr. Royale, perhaps, but Faisal Islam also had a bizarre, minor, attack line on Cameron benefiting from the reduction in the top rate of tax, so there might be some weird questions.0
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It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.0 -
You are the one who doesn't appear to understand what the word "reprieve" means. Which is shocking and not, in fact, credible.AlastairMeeks said:@ThreeQuidder I shall leave others to decide. You are clearly beyond reasoning with.
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Let's hope so.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, perhaps, but Faisal Islam also had a bizarre, minor, attack line on Cameron benefiting from the reduction in the top rate of tax, so there might be some weird questions.
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Corbyn's about to make a speech - he's against TTIP, pro-open borders, pretending to like the EU after 30yrs of rubbishing it - no wonder 50% of Labour voters have no idea which side they're campaigning on.Patrick said:
I'm surprised more on the left don't make more of this angle. Corbyn has been all but silent during the campaign. A Leave vote would overnight destroy Dave and Osborne and plunge the Tories into a sort of chaos. No doubt order would emerge with someone like Gove as PM - but that must be electorally good for Labour.Morris_Dancer said:Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
Vote LEAVE to destroy Cameron and the Tories
Jezza on screen any mo on Sky...0 -
Unless the Government was miles ahead in the polls I can't see them going for auto-no-confidence. It would look terrible to the public - no way to start a campaign if it looks tight.Casino_Royale said:
Hard to disagree with that. I find it hard to see a GE this year or next without the Government backing a vote of no confidence in itself, or repealing the FTPA and then calling one, and I'd expect the Tories to lose their majority if they did.
However, I am happy with my 7/1 bet on Cameron leaving office by the end of this year.
I guess it's possible that the Government could unintentionally lose a confidence vote.
Repealing the FTPA is going to take time as there would be the question of what mechanism to replace it with.
I'm coming to think the most likely route to an election is simply challenging Labour to vote for it. While they would be reluctant to vote for an election that they looked likely to lose, it would be very hard to explain to the Corbynista faithful why they had declined the invitation. I think there would be some serious disillusionment as a result.
The biggest question, though, is whether the Tories would be confident of winning, which I guess means increasing their majority. I agree with you that they could very well lose their majority entirely.
Of course, if Cameron were still leader then that brings Corbyn Next PM into play.0 -
I'm not really a dog person. But I shall dress up for the occasion.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that assumes I lower Castle Morris Dancer's drawbridge and permit you ingress.
I may well set the hound upon you (she really likes visitors and is about as subtle as a nymphomaniac rhinoceros).0 -
I think you'll find that 'The Master' was Michael Gove's term.MonikerDiCanio said:
In fairness to Cameron and Osborne they've never hidden their admiration for Blair's Labour. The heir to Blair and George revere Tony as "The Master".PlatoSaid said:
When you discover you've actually got New Labour Plus, not Tories - it's perfectly understandable that so many are unhappy/feel duped.Mortimer said:
Couldn't agree more.Concanvasser said:The Tory press is reflecting the anger of many conservatives. I have been a Conservative activist since the 1980s and have never felt so detached from my party. Things are not going to go back to being happy families by the end of this month. Cameron has behaved digracefully in this campaign and sickened many of us who put him there. There will have to be a reckoning within the party. Good news for Mr Corbyn and good luck to him. Those of us who have been on the receiving end of Bullingdon bullies must stick together.
If Osborne gets anywhere near the leadership I will be resigning my membership.0 -
@ThreeQuidder In this context the Mail can only be referring to the abandonment of the proposal.0
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An anecdote but I was at a poetry competition on Sunday (I was a local finalist; didn't win), and heard one left-leaning voter considering voting Remain specifically in order to stop to Tories 'getting even more right wing' if Leave won (which itself is interesting as I wouldn't have had the woman in question down as inclined to Leave to begin with) i.e. to keep Cameron in place.Patrick said:
I'm surprised more on the left don't make more of this angle. Corbyn has been all but silent during the campaign. A Leave vote would overnight destroy Dave and Osborne and plunge the Tories into a sort of chaos. No doubt order would emerge with someone like Gove as PM - but that must be electorally good for Labour.Morris_Dancer said:Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
Vote LEAVE to destroy Cameron and the Tories
But then she followed that up with "but i don't know if that's a good enough reason".0 -
I am extremely comfortable knowing I am on the opposite side of the Referendum to Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Peter Mandelson.ThreeQuidder said:
Well, indeed. With two odious creatures like that, one on each side, it's stupid to decide how to vote based on who backs what.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're on the same side as George Galloway.ThreeQuidder said:
You must be happy being on the same side as Gerry Adams.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Ken was right and IDS wrong.ThreeQuidder said:
Yes, he'd have expressed solidarity with France who had their own shoddy reasons for wanting Hussein kept in power.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ken Clarke as LOTO would have opposed the war.ThreeQuidder said:
I wanted Hussein removed if and only if there was a proper plan in place for what happened afterwards.david_herdson said:
IDS can't. He was leader of the Opposition and could - and should - have asked for a full briefing direct from the security services. It was his job *not* to take the PM at his word.rottenborough said:
Trouble is everyone who voted for it can claim that they were beguiled into supporting the war by Blair's hypnotic abilities.OldKingCole said:
IDS, IIRC was enthusiastically in support of the Iraq expedition.PlatoSaid said:
Can Blair's reputation fall further? It may re-energise some of the hate, can't see what more Chilcott can throw at him - we know all the Big Fibs. The other names are all has beens.pinkrose said:Estobar said:
What cannot easily been gainsaid is that this is an onslaught unlike anything seen in the last fifty years. Not even the Welsh Windbag endured this level of sustained attack. I cannot see how Remain can survive this and now expect the final referendum result to be:
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LOL you think this is bad.......wait until the EU referendum is over and the Chilcott report is published. The sh*t will hit the fan. What the press will do to one Anthony Charles Lynton Blair will make the demonisation of Neil Kinnock seem like friendly banter.
Could IDS - or any LOTO - have learnt that there wasn't?
IDS wrong then, wrong now.
I salute your courage, your indefatigability etc0 -
With reference to castles, I wonder how JackW is?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not really a dog person. But I shall dress up for the occasion.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that assumes I lower Castle Morris Dancer's drawbridge and permit you ingress.
I may well set the hound upon you (she really likes visitors and is about as subtle as a nymphomaniac rhinoceros).0 -
I think Mike will be contacting him in a few days time to see how he is and he'll let us know.OldKingCole said:
With reference to castles, I wonder how JackW is?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not really a dog person. But I shall dress up for the occasion.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that assumes I lower Castle Morris Dancer's drawbridge and permit you ingress.
I may well set the hound upon you (she really likes visitors and is about as subtle as a nymphomaniac rhinoceros).0 -
Quite so. What true Conservative wants to be on the same side as Emma Thompson and 90% of all Guardian readers?MarqueeMark said:
I am extremely comfortable knowing I am on the opposite side of the Referendum to Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Peter Mandelson.ThreeQuidder said:
Well, indeed. With two odious creatures like that, one on each side, it's stupid to decide how to vote based on who backs what.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're on the same side as George Galloway.ThreeQuidder said:
You must be happy being on the same side as Gerry Adams.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Ken was right and IDS wrong.ThreeQuidder said:
Yes, he'd have expressed solidarity with France who had their own shoddy reasons for wanting Hussein kept in power.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ken Clarke as LOTO would have opposed the war.ThreeQuidder said:
I wanted Hussein removed if and only if there was a proper plan in place for what happened afterwards.david_herdson said:
IDS can't. He was leader of the Opposition and could - and should - have asked for a full briefing direct from the security services. It was his job *not* to take the PM at his word.rottenborough said:
Trouble is everyone who voted for it can claim that they were beguiled into supporting the war by Blair's hypnotic abilities.OldKingCole said:
IDS, IIRC was enthusiastically in support of the Iraq expedition.PlatoSaid said:
Can Blair's reputation fall further? It may re-energise some of the hate, can't see what more Chilcott can throw at him - we know all the Big Fibs. The other names are all has beens.pinkrose said:Estobar said:
What cannot easily been gainsaid is that this is an onslaught unlike anything seen in the last fifty years. Not even the Welsh Windbag endured this level of sustained attack. I cannot see how Remain can survive this and now expect the final referendum result to be:
.
LOL you think this is bad.......wait until the EU referendum is over and the Chilcott report is published. The sh*t will hit the fan. What the press will do to one Anthony Charles Lynton Blair will make the demonisation of Neil Kinnock seem like friendly banter.
Could IDS - or any LOTO - have learnt that there wasn't?
IDS wrong then, wrong now.
I salute your courage, your indefatigability etc0 -
TSE you could canvass me .TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out.
My family is split both sides.
I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue.
Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.0 -
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.0 -
It is Sheffield Central.RoyalBlue said:
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.
If @Thescreamingeagles isn't finding "Remain" a long way ahead there, they are in trouble. To be perfectly honest it is more about GOTV than conversions there.0 -
"Urrh, but you don't you reckon the Tory Leavers will just privatise the NHS and pocket the £350 million per week" - unknown canvasser in Sheffield ...TheScreamingEagles said:Last night's canvassing experience. Very working class area of Sheffield again.
Immigration the major issue, but IDS is putting off Labour voters inclined to Leave.
No one believes the Tory leavers will spend the £350 million a week on the NHS, they just want to privatise it.0 -
Depends on what you consider important. If it is the economy, I'd pitch that and the spirit of Thatcher, and only Trump and Le Pen want Brexit whilst the great and the good are for Remain.Yorkcity said:
TSE you could canvass me .TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out.
My family is split both sides.
I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue.
Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
If the mosaic said you were left leaning, I'd go for workers' rights (and do you really want to see Boris/IDS/Gove as PM) and NHS workers' are overwhelming for Remain.
Whatever you choose this is a decision not to sit out.0 -
Far more certain to destroy the Tories with a Remain vote!Patrick said:
I'm surprised more on the left don't make more of this angle. Corbyn has been all but silent during the campaign. A Leave vote would overnight destroy Dave and Osborne and plunge the Tories into a sort of chaos. No doubt order would emerge with someone like Gove as PM - but that must be electorally good for Labour.Morris_Dancer said:Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
Vote LEAVE to destroy Cameron and the Tories
If Leave win then Cameron will be out, and the party fairly unified, albeit smaller, and with a prospect of recapturing kippers. With a Remain vote the party splits will become even more vicious.0 -
Indeed. It is about getting non Tories to vote for Remain and not as an option to stick to Dave or the Tories.Pulpstar said:
It is Sheffield Central.RoyalBlue said:
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.
If @Thescreamingeagles isn't finding "Remain" a long way ahead there, they are in trouble. To be perfectly honest it is more about GOTV than conversions there.0 -
Is this another example of white actors having all the best parts?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2016/06/02/furore-over-bbcs-steamy-costume-drama-versailles/0 -
Are you implying Kennedy's opposition to the Iraq War was entirely cynical ? Well, let's not go there as it's a pointless argument now.david_herdson said:
And your point is?
Kennedy's opposition to the Iraq War did his public standing no harm - a fact he was well aware of and which the Lib Dems used in campaigning.
And yes, Twitter bullies just like the press bully, though the most active and angry on social media tend to be the left rather than the right. That said, the influence of grass-roots activity on social media to change votes is probably still very much unproven.
I think my point is the Conservative party, though officially neutral, is trying to be all things to all people. It's the old Cameron inclusivity tactic - the tent is big enough for everyone - except the problem is the tent gets so big it collapses under its own contradictions.
This has been very much the line since the GE, and accentuated by the emergence of Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservatives are for everyone and everyone is now a Conservative.
The problem is the tent is now collapsing and those inside it are struggling to see a way out and can't.
I think what it does show is the days of triangulation and the "big tent" are over for now. I suspect the post-Cameron Conservative party will carve out a more distinctive series of policies, radically different to those of Corbyn's Labour. I suspect it will be a more united and happier party to be in and an easier party to oppose - it will be the final nail in the coffin of modern Butskellism (shall we call it Blameronism perhaps ?) and a return to more tribal distinctive politics in which the press will take more clearly defined sides.
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Still not answering the question on voting intention. Somebody is frit!TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. It is about getting non Tories to vote for Remain and not as an option to stick to Dave or the Tories.Pulpstar said:
It is Sheffield Central.RoyalBlue said:
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.
If @Thescreamingeagles isn't finding "Remain" a long way ahead there, they are in trouble. To be perfectly honest it is more about GOTV than conversions there.
I should be canvassing on Sunday. I will repeat what I find out, no matter how dispiriting for Leave.0 -
May I humbly suggest perusing my blog?Yorkcity said:
TSE you could canvass me .TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out.
My family is split both sides.
I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue.
Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2016/05/22/eu-referendum-the-choice/0 -
57.4% turnout at GE. I suspect it will be lower for the EU ref.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. It is about getting non Tories to vote for Remain and not as an option to stick to Dave or the Tories.Pulpstar said:
It is Sheffield Central.RoyalBlue said:
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.
If @Thescreamingeagles isn't finding "Remain" a long way ahead there, they are in trouble. To be perfectly honest it is more about GOTV than conversions there.0 -
Good man. I trust you to be brutally honest, as am I.RoyalBlue said:
Still not answering the question on voting intention. Somebody is frit!TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. It is about getting non Tories to vote for Remain and not as an option to stick to Dave or the Tories.Pulpstar said:
It is Sheffield Central.RoyalBlue said:
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.
If @Thescreamingeagles isn't finding "Remain" a long way ahead there, they are in trouble. To be perfectly honest it is more about GOTV than conversions there.
I should be canvassing on Sunday. I will repeat what I find out, no matter how dispiriting for Leave.
I seem to attract Remainers who always confide in me how little they think of Leave and the Leavers.
I have started to enjoy letting them have a rant and then responding with 'I'm voting Leave', and then watching them splutter.0 -
Spam trap has eaten two posts
Results of Ipsos MORI poll
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/31/two-thirds-of-people-think-brexit-would-not-leave-them-any-poore/
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/01/brexit-two-thirds-forsee-no-negative-impact-their-finances?CMP=share_btn_tw0 -
That's a shame. I say what I genuinely think on the doorstep, and have a normal conversation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends on what you consider important. If it is the economy, I'd pitch that and the spirit of Thatcher, and only Trump and Le Pen want Brexit whilst the great and the good are for Remain.Yorkcity said:
TSE you could canvass me .TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out.
My family is split both sides.
I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue.
Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
If the mosaic said you were left leaning, I'd go for workers' rights (and do you really want to see Boris/IDS/Gove as PM) and NHS workers' are overwhelming for Remain.
Whatever you choose this is a decision not to sit out.
I don't push attack lines.0 -
Earlier in the week a question was asked about the eligibility to vote if someone that was ineligible to vote did receive a polling card. The EC issued a statement yesterday in line with my opinion (thankfully...).
“A poll card does not entitle someone to vote. In order to be able to cast their vote, a person must appear on the electoral register and be shown on it as being eligible to vote. A person’s eligibility is always checked by polling station staff before issuing a ballot paper and if they are not eligible, no ballot paper will be issued.”
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-donations/electoral-commission-statement?0 -
I have answered. The VI is line with the GE. Lab, Greens and Lib Dems overwhelmingly in favour of Remain. Tories split and Non voters similar.RoyalBlue said:
Still not answering the question on voting intention. Somebody is frit!TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. It is about getting non Tories to vote for Remain and not as an option to stick to Dave or the Tories.Pulpstar said:
It is Sheffield Central.RoyalBlue said:
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.
If @Thescreamingeagles isn't finding "Remain" a long way ahead there, they are in trouble. To be perfectly honest it is more about GOTV than conversions there.
I should be canvassing on Sunday. I will repeat what I find out, no matter how dispiriting for Leave.0 -
Note that this is NOT an analysis of the effects since 2010. So it's not a rejoinder against Sean's note that the effects since 2010 had been more borne by the richest decile.SouthamObserver said:
The poorest have been hardest hit. The richest have been least affected. And that pattern is set to continue:Sean_F said:
In fiscal terms, the biggest percentage burden since 2010 has been borne by the richest 10% of taxpayers.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, you would say that, wouldn't you? :-)chestnut said:
Vapid something or other is the term, I believe.SouthamObserver said:It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.
Labour have churned out a lot of hyperbolic nonsense about these things, but the public are wise to the left's financial incontinence, and have seen that ever more money never seems to sort these things out so they have looked elsewhere for an answer.
They have concluded that it's the system. Excessive demand and poor allocation of resources.
The government - supported by Leavers - has made choices. The main one is to seek to eliminate the deficit by 2020. That has meant delivering significant cuts to public services and squeezing tax revenues. The least advantaged have borne the bulk of the cost on both fronts. I can see why blaming immigrants is more attractive for parts of the right, though.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/737525064199856128/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
It's a projection of the effects from 2015. Which is a different argument altogether.0 -
Disagree. A post-Leave Tory party would be more to the right of the current wishy washy metrosexual Davey/Georgey Blair-worshipping blob. That inevitably vacates a bit of the centre ground. Corbyn doesn't know or understand what centre ground is. But a non-idiotic LAbour leader might be very well placed to exploit. How would a Jarvis vs Gove GE look? Labour would win I reckon.foxinsoxuk said:
Far more certain to destroy the Tories with a Remain vote!Patrick said:
I'm surprised more on the left don't make more of this angle. Corbyn has been all but silent during the campaign. A Leave vote would overnight destroy Dave and Osborne and plunge the Tories into a sort of chaos. No doubt order would emerge with someone like Gove as PM - but that must be electorally good for Labour.Morris_Dancer said:Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
Vote LEAVE to destroy Cameron and the Tories
If Leave win then Cameron will be out, and the party fairly unified, albeit smaller, and with a prospect of recapturing kippers. With a Remain vote the party splits will become even more vicious.0 -
If your parameters are:Jonathan said:
I am sick to death of the rich lecturing the poor on their tough choices, when they haven't even had to make a "tough choice" in the Mercedes catalogue.Moses_ said:
PureJonathan said:
Pure sophistry, the richest 10% have experienced no hardship whatsoever.Sean_F said:
In fiscal terms, the biggest percentage burden since 2010 has been borne by the richest 10% of taxpayers.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, you would say that, wouldn't you? :-)chestnut said:
Vapid something or other is the term, I believe.SouthamObserver said:It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.
Labour have churned out a lot of hyperbolic nonsense about these things, but the public are wise to the left's financial incontinence, and have seen that ever more money never seems to sort these things out so they have looked elsewhere for an answer.
They have concluded that it's the system. Excessive demand and poor allocation of resources.
The government - supported by Leavers - has made choices. The main one is to seek to eliminate the deficit by 2020. That has meant delivering significant cuts to public services and squeezing tax revenues. The least advantaged have borne the bulk of the cost on both fronts. I can see why blaming immigrants is more attractive for parts of the right, though.sophistry, bullshit.
So basically unless you suffered some hardship the tax however high and total amount you pay really doesn't count...... because you didn't suffer hardship
Yes, a key test on whether you are carrying your fair share of the burden is that you feel it. If you don't, you're not.
- The rich do not feel these effects; they're only felt by the poor
and
- It's only fair if you feel the effects
then your conclusion has to be that things are only fair in your definition if they have the effect of explicitly making the rich as poor as the existing poor.0 -
Indeed, I was searching for the figures, but here they are (Table 3.2):-Andy_Cooke said:
Note that this is NOT an analysis of the effects since 2010. So it's not a rejoinder against Sean's note that the effects since 2010 had been more borne by the richest decile.SouthamObserver said:
The poorest have been hardest hit. The richest have been least affected. And that pattern is set to continue:Sean_F said:
In fiscal terms, the biggest percentage burden since 2010 has been borne by the richest 10% of taxpayers.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, you would say that, wouldn't you? :-)chestnut said:
Vapid something or other is the term, I believe.SouthamObserver said:It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.
Labour have churned out a lot of hyperbolic nonsense about these things, but the public are wise to the left's financial incontinence, and have seen that ever more money never seems to sort these things out so they have looked elsewhere for an answer.
They have concluded that it's the system. Excessive demand and poor allocation of resources.
The government - supported by Leavers - has made choices. The main one is to seek to eliminate the deficit by 2020. That has meant delivering significant cuts to public services and squeezing tax revenues. The least advantaged have borne the bulk of the cost on both fronts. I can see why blaming immigrants is more attractive for parts of the right, though.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/737525064199856128/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
It's a projection of the effects from 2015. Which is a different argument altogether.
http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/bns/BN159.pdf
Since 2010, the biggest percentage burden has been borne by the top 10%. One can certainly argue that the top 10% should have borne a bigger burden, but my comment was correct.0 -
Moderator - how do you kill this irritating nesting of comments?0
-
I speak my mind too. But it is talking about what is important to the voters. Last year when campaigning I had to customise my pitch accordingly if the voter's most important concern was education, or if it was the NHS or something else.Casino_Royale said:
That's a shame. I say what I genuinely think on the doorstep, and have a normal conversation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends on what you consider important. If it is the economy, I'd pitch that and the spirit of Thatcher, and only Trump and Le Pen want Brexit whilst the great and the good are for Remain.Yorkcity said:
TSE you could canvass me .TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out.
My family is split both sides.
I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue.
Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
If the mosaic said you were left leaning, I'd go for workers' rights (and do you really want to see Boris/IDS/Gove as PM) and NHS workers' are overwhelming for Remain.
Whatever you choose this is a decision not to sit out.
I don't push attack lines.0 -
Mr. Betting, hopefully that's what happens.0
-
First catch your JarvisPatrick said:
Disagree. A post-Leave Tory party would be more to the right of the current wishy washy metrosexual Davey/Georgey Blair-worshipping blob. That inevitably vacates a bit of the centre ground. Corbyn doesn't know or understand what centre ground is. But a non-idiotic LAbour leader might be very well placed to exploit. How would a Jarvis vs Gove GE look? Labour would win I reckon.foxinsoxuk said:
Far more certain to destroy the Tories with a Remain vote!Patrick said:
I'm surprised more on the left don't make more of this angle. Corbyn has been all but silent during the campaign. A Leave vote would overnight destroy Dave and Osborne and plunge the Tories into a sort of chaos. No doubt order would emerge with someone like Gove as PM - but that must be electorally good for Labour.Morris_Dancer said:Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
Vote LEAVE to destroy Cameron and the Tories
If Leave win then Cameron will be out, and the party fairly unified, albeit smaller, and with a prospect of recapturing kippers. With a Remain vote the party splits will become even more vicious.0 -
I'm delighted not to be feeble minded enough to care whose 'side' my considered view of events puts me on. If George Galloway wants to agree with me, that's dandy as far as I'm concerned - it's entirely his affair.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're on the same side as George Galloway.ThreeQuidder said:
You must be happy being on the same side as Gerry Adams.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Ken was right and IDS wrong.ThreeQuidder said:
Yes, he'd have expressed solidarity with France who had their own shoddy reasons for wanting Hussein kept in power.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ken Clarke as LOTO would have opposed the war.ThreeQuidder said:
I wanted Hussein removed if and only if there was a proper plan in place for what happened afterwards.david_herdson said:
IDS can't. He was leader of the Opposition and could - and should - have asked for a full briefing direct from the security services. It was his job *not* to take the PM at his word.rottenborough said:
Trouble is everyone who voted for it can claim that they were beguiled into supporting the war by Blair's hypnotic abilities.OldKingCole said:
IDS, IIRC was enthusiastically in support of the Iraq expedition.PlatoSaid said:
Can Blair's reputation fall further? It may re-energise some of the hate, can't see what more Chilcott can throw at him - we know all the Big Fibs. The other names are all has beens.pinkrose said:Estobar said:
What cannot easily been gainsaid is that this is an onslaught unlike anything seen in the last fifty years. Not even the Welsh Windbag endured this level of sustained attack. I cannot see how Remain can survive this and now expect the final referendum result to be:
.
LOL you think this is bad.......wait until the EU referendum is over and the Chilcott report is published. The sh*t will hit the fan. What the press will do to one Anthony Charles Lynton Blair will make the demonisation of Neil Kinnock seem like friendly banter.
Could IDS - or any LOTO - have learnt that there wasn't?
IDS wrong then, wrong now.
I salute your courage, your indefatigability etc0 -
Much appreciated.Casino_Royale said:
May I humbly suggest perusing my blog?Yorkcity said:
TSE you could canvass me .TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out.
My family is split both sides.
I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue.
Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2016/05/22/eu-referendum-the-choice/0 -
Jezza and his anti-prosperity campaign for Remain.PlatoSaid said:
Corbyn's about to make a speech - he's against TTIP, pro-open borders, pretending to like the EU after 30yrs of rubbishing it - no wonder 50% of Labour voters have no idea which side they're campaigning on.Patrick said:
I'm surprised more on the left don't make more of this angle. Corbyn has been all but silent during the campaign. A Leave vote would overnight destroy Dave and Osborne and plunge the Tories into a sort of chaos. No doubt order would emerge with someone like Gove as PM - but that must be electorally good for Labour.Morris_Dancer said:Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
Vote LEAVE to destroy Cameron and the Tories
Jezza on screen any mo on Sky...
There's a lot of it about.0 -
Perhaps you should raise that with the person who said Remainers on the same side as Gerry AdamsLuckyguy1983 said:
I'm delighted not to be feeble minded enough to care whose 'side' my considered view of events puts me on. If George Galloway wants to agree with me, that's dandy as far as I'm concerned - it's entirely his affair.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're on the same side as George Galloway.ThreeQuidder said:
You must be happy being on the same side as Gerry Adams.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Ken was right and IDS wrong.ThreeQuidder said:
Yes, he'd have expressed solidarity with France who had their own shoddy reasons for wanting Hussein kept in power.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ken Clarke as LOTO would have opposed the war.ThreeQuidder said:
I wanted Hussein removed if and only if there was a proper plan in place for what happened afterwards.david_herdson said:
IDS can't. He was leader of the Opposition and could - and should - have asked for a full briefing direct from the security services. It was his job *not* to take the PM at his word.rottenborough said:
Trouble is everyone who voted for it can claim that they were beguiled into supporting the war by Blair's hypnotic abilities.OldKingCole said:
IDS, IIRC was enthusiastically in support of the Iraq expedition.PlatoSaid said:
Can Blair's reputation fall further? It may re-energise some of the hate, can't see what more Chilcott can throw at him - we know all the Big Fibs. The other names are all has beens.pinkrose said:Estobar said:
What cannot easily been gainsaid is that this is an onslaught unlike anything seen in the last fifty years. Not even the Welsh Windbag endured this level of sustained attack. I cannot see how Remain can survive this and now expect the final referendum result to be:
.
LOL you think this is bad.......wait until the EU referendum is over and the Chilcott report is published. The sh*t will hit the fan. What the press will do to one Anthony Charles Lynton Blair will make the demonisation of Neil Kinnock seem like friendly banter.
Could IDS - or any LOTO - have learnt that there wasn't?
IDS wrong then, wrong now.
I salute your courage, your indefatigability etc0 -
We have reports from some Labour MPs that they are finding a large amount of support for LEAVE in working class areas. Just look at the example of Mrs Duffy, she is for LEAVE. REMAIN needs something much better than 2:1 of its voters to vote REMAIN, probably 3:1 is required. 3:1 does not look plausible from the reactions in non-London urban areas.Pulpstar said:
It is Sheffield Central.RoyalBlue said:
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.
If @Thescreamingeagles isn't finding "Remain" a long way ahead there, they are in trouble. To be perfectly honest it is more about GOTV than conversions there.
0 -
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. It is about getting non Tories to vote for Remain and not as an option to stick to Dave or the Tories.Pulpstar said:
It is Sheffield Central.RoyalBlue said:
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.
If @Thescreamingeagles isn't finding "Remain" a long way ahead there, they are in trouble. To be perfectly honest it is more about GOTV than conversions there.0 -
Jezza's speech is living down to expectations. I'm really quite confused by his content. It's a messy mush of Remain, anti-EU - and Tory hating dogma...0
-
Jezza's big idea to win over floating voters, vote Remain to save the bees.0
-
Read the comments on the Vanilla site.Patrick said:Moderator - how do you kill this irritating nesting of comments?
0 -
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.PlatoSaid said:
0 -
I wonder if Corbyn will mention his support for totally open borders when saying we should stay in the EU.0
-
Why ? I'm only responsible for my drivel, not yours or anyone else's.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps you should raise that with the person who said Remainers on the same side as Gerry Adams
0 -
Why not give us numbers?TheScreamingEagles said:
I have answered. The VI is line with the GE. Lab, Greens and Lib Dems overwhelmingly in favour of Remain. Tories split and Non voters similar.RoyalBlue said:
Still not answering the question on voting intention. Somebody is frit!TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. It is about getting non Tories to vote for Remain and not as an option to stick to Dave or the Tories.Pulpstar said:
It is Sheffield Central.RoyalBlue said:
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.
If @Thescreamingeagles isn't finding "Remain" a long way ahead there, they are in trouble. To be perfectly honest it is more about GOTV than conversions there.
I should be canvassing on Sunday. I will repeat what I find out, no matter how dispiriting for Leave.0 -
Yes but what about the bees, the bees, my kingdom for the bees....?PlatoSaid said:Jezza's speech is living down to expectations. I'm really quite confused by his content. It's a messy mush of Remain, anti-EU - and Tory hating dogma...
0 -
That's an 'it's on the web' type of not really terribly helpful reply.ThreeQuidder said:
Read the comments on the Vanilla site.Patrick said:Moderator - how do you kill this irritating nesting of comments?
0 -
Some people talk about this problem but others don't seem to see it. What browser are you using?Patrick said:
That's an 'it's on the web' type of not really terribly helpful reply.ThreeQuidder said:
Read the comments on the Vanilla site.Patrick said:Moderator - how do you kill this irritating nesting of comments?
0 -
Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.0
-
Someone mentioned GOTV. What vote? It's a kaleidoscope of opinions. It's ludicrous to treat it as a party issue even though the main protagonists are in the split Conservative party.0
-
I have given the numbers to the best of my knowledge.RoyalBlue said:
Why not give us numbers?TheScreamingEagles said:
I have answered. The VI is line with the GE. Lab, Greens and Lib Dems overwhelmingly in favour of Remain. Tories split and Non voters similar.RoyalBlue said:
Still not answering the question on voting intention. Somebody is frit!TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. It is about getting non Tories to vote for Remain and not as an option to stick to Dave or the Tories.Pulpstar said:
It is Sheffield Central.RoyalBlue said:
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.
If @Thescreamingeagles isn't finding "Remain" a long way ahead there, they are in trouble. To be perfectly honest it is more about GOTV than conversions there.
I should be canvassing on Sunday. I will repeat what I find out, no matter how dispiriting for Leave.0 -
Possible, yesterday the TUC and Unions dismissed concerns on immigration from the UK's working class that they were driving wages down.Morris_Dancer said:I wonder if Corbyn will mention his support for totally open borders when saying we should stay in the EU.
Keir Hardie really would turn in his grave about this.
FYI in 1887, Hardie blamed immigrants for driving down wages of Scottish workers and he accused them of stealing and being dirty. In an article written for the journal The Miner in 1887, he criticised the owners of the local Glengarnock ironworks for using “Russian Poles”.0 -
Thanks TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends on what you consider important. If it is the economy, I'd pitch that and the spirit of Thatcher, and only Trump and Le Pen want Brexit whilst the great and the good are for Remain.Yorkcity said:
TSE you could canvass me .TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out.
My family is split both sides.
I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue.
Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
If the mosaic said you were left leaning, I'd go for workers' rights (and do you really want to see Boris/IDS/Gove as PM) and NHS workers' are overwhelming for Remain.
Whatever you choose this is a decision not to sit out.
I am concerned about democracy sovereignty.
For my daughter who has just got a new job promotion and is moving up from London to Leeds and will be buying a house in the next 3 months .
The consideration is more short term interest rates , and workers rights.
Currently my close family is
Father - Leave
Mother- Undecided
Wife- Remain
Brother - Leave
Brother - Remain
Daughter- Remain
Daughter- Not voting0 -
That's the fear/hope depending on your viewpoint.Sean_F said:
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. It is about getting non Tories to vote for Remain and not as an option to stick to Dave or the Tories.Pulpstar said:
It is Sheffield Central.RoyalBlue said:
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.
If @Thescreamingeagles isn't finding "Remain" a long way ahead there, they are in trouble. To be perfectly honest it is more about GOTV than conversions there.0 -
More from the man of the working class party, Labour hero Keir Hardie.
He said in 1887: “What object they have in doing so is beyond human ken unless it is, as stated by a speaker at Irvine, to teach men how to live on garlic and oil, or introduce the Black Death, so as to get rid of the surplus labourers.”
0 -
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands
0 -
Corbyn presenting the anti-trade, anti-prosperity, mass nationalisation vision of the EU.0
-
We're a sovereign nation. We're having a referendum, if we vote Remain and in the future membership of the EU isn't in our interest we can have another referendum or elect a party who have a manifesto pledge to take us out.Yorkcity said:
Thanks TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends on what you consider important. If it is the economy, I'd pitch that and the spirit of Thatcher, and only Trump and Le Pen want Brexit whilst the great and the good are for Remain.Yorkcity said:
TSE you could canvass me .TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out.
My family is split both sides.
I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue.
Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
If the mosaic said you were left leaning, I'd go for workers' rights (and do you really want to see Boris/IDS/Gove as PM) and NHS workers' are overwhelming for Remain.
Whatever you choose this is a decision not to sit out.
I am concerned about democracy sovereignty.
For my daughter who has just got a new job promotion and is moving up from London to Leeds and will be buying a house in the next 3 months .
The consideration is more short term interest rates , and workers rights.
Currently my close family is
Father - Leave
Mother- Undecided
Wife- Remain
Brother - Leave
Brother - Remain
Daughter- Remain
Daughter- Not voting0 -
Or Nick Clegg...Casino_Royale said:
Quite so. What true Conservative wants to be on the same side as Emma Thompson and 90% of all Guardian readers?MarqueeMark said:
I am extremely comfortable knowing I am on the opposite side of the Referendum to Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Peter Mandelson.ThreeQuidder said:
Well, indeed. With two odious creatures like that, one on each side, it's stupid to decide how to vote based on who backs what.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're on the same side as George Galloway.ThreeQuidder said:
You must be happy being on the same side as Gerry Adams.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Ken was right and IDS wrong.ThreeQuidder said:
Yes, he'd have expressed solidarity with France who had their own shoddy reasons for wanting Hussein kept in power.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ken Clarke as LOTO would have opposed the war.ThreeQuidder said:
I wanted Hussein removed if and only if there was a proper plan in place for what happened afterwards.david_herdson said:
IDS can't. He was leader of the Opposition and could - and should - have asked for a full briefing direct from the security services. It was his job *not* to take the PM at his word.rottenborough said:
Trouble is everyone who voted for it can claim that they were beguiled into supporting the war by Blair's hypnotic abilities.OldKingCole said:
IDS, IIRC was enthusiastically in support of the Iraq expedition.PlatoSaid said:
Can Blair's reputation fall further? It may re-energise some of the hate, can't see what more Chilcott can throw at him - we know all the Big Fibs. The other names are all has beens.pinkrose said:Estobar said:
What cannot easily been gainsaid is that this is an onslaught unlike anything seen in the last fifty years. Not even the Welsh Windbag endured this level of sustained attack. I cannot see how Remain can survive this and now expect the final referendum result to be:
.
LOL you think this is bad.......wait until the EU referendum is over and the Chilcott report is published. The sh*t will hit the fan. What the press will do to one Anthony Charles Lynton Blair will make the demonisation of Neil Kinnock seem like friendly banter.
Could IDS - or any LOTO - have learnt that there wasn't?
IDS wrong then, wrong now.
I salute your courage, your indefatigability etc0 -
Yes, I ask them what they're thinking and what's on their mind and talk to them about my views on that issue.TheScreamingEagles said:
I speak my mind too. But it is talking about what is important to the voters. Last year when campaigning I had to customise my pitch accordingly if the voter's most important concern was education, or if it was the NHS or something else.Casino_Royale said:
That's a shame. I say what I genuinely think on the doorstep, and have a normal conversation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends on what you consider important. If it is the economy, I'd pitch that and the spirit of Thatcher, and only Trump and Le Pen want Brexit whilst the great and the good are for Remain.Yorkcity said:
TSE you could canvass me .TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm coming to West Yorkshire next week. I was a hit last year there helping to elect several Tory MPs. I might come canvass you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, it's unsurprising to find anti-Conservative sentiment in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire (about as shocking as finding Conservative voters in North Yorkshire).
It's West Yorkshire, and places like it, that may be the determining factor. Full of marginals and more voters accustomed to being floating voters.
Also worth noting those who are anti-Conservative may vote Leave to try and get rid of Cameron.
This is a difficult decision , I even thought about sitting it out.
My family is split both sides.
I know York City in recent years has become a Labour City but all the other areas in North Yorkshire are true blue.
Nearly everyone where it is mentioned in my company at work family and friends is saying that they are not definite either way.
If the mosaic said you were left leaning, I'd go for workers' rights (and do you really want to see Boris/IDS/Gove as PM) and NHS workers' are overwhelming for Remain.
Whatever you choose this is a decision not to sit out.
I don't push attack lines.
Yesterday I was explaining how the process of Leaving might look to someone at work who asked. I mentioned informal negotiations as well as the formal Article 50 mechanism.0 -
They may also just hate the EU for good lefty reasons. The leader of the RMT, whose name I forget, was on Question Time the other day having a right old go at the EU - from the left. Maybe Vote Leave should wheel him out again. He was cogent, lucid and virulently anti-EU (probably Corbyn's true position). As a trade unionist, I think that he could help move the needle a bit. If you're a lefty Brit I can't see what attraction there is at all in being governed by non-British 'fiscal compact' Eurocrats.
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron
That's the fear/hope depending on your viewpoint.0 -
I was merely pointing out that there are disqualifying associations on both sides.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps you should raise that with the person who said Remainers on the same side as Gerry AdamsLuckyguy1983 said:
I'm delighted not to be feeble minded enough to care whose 'side' my considered view of events puts me on. If George Galloway wants to agree with me, that's dandy as far as I'm concerned - it's entirely his affair.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're on the same side as George Galloway.ThreeQuidder said:
You must be happy being on the same side as Gerry Adams.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Ken was right and IDS wrong.ThreeQuidder said:
Yes, he'd have expressed solidarity with France who had their own shoddy reasons for wanting Hussein kept in power.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ken Clarke as LOTO would have opposed the war.ThreeQuidder said:
I wanted Hussein removed if and only if there was a proper plan in place for what happened afterwards.david_herdson said:
IDS can't. He was leader of the Opposition and could - and should - have asked for a full briefing direct from the security services. It was his job *not* to take the PM at his word.rottenborough said:
Trouble is everyone who voted for it can claim that they were beguiled into supporting the war by Blair's hypnotic abilities.OldKingCole said:
IDS, IIRC was enthusiastically in support of the Iraq expedition.PlatoSaid said:
Can Blair's reputation fall further? It may re-energise some of the hate, can't see what more Chilcott can throw at him - we know all the Big Fibs. The other names are all has beens.pinkrose said:Estobar said:
What cannot easily been gainsaid is that this is an onslaught unlike anything seen in the last fifty years. Not even the Welsh Windbag endured this level of sustained attack. I cannot see how Remain can survive this and now expect the final referendum result to be:
.
LOL you think this is bad.......wait until the EU referendum is over and the Chilcott report is published. The sh*t will hit the fan. What the press will do to one Anthony Charles Lynton Blair will make the demonisation of Neil Kinnock seem like friendly banter.
Could IDS - or any LOTO - have learnt that there wasn't?
IDS wrong then, wrong now.
I salute your courage, your indefatigability etc0 -
But this was a predictable outcome from using Cameron as the front man. In the Scots Independenc the biggest (then ) voting block for IN was SLAB. So the front man chosen was Alistair Darling, he had a 56% trust rating in a poll just prior to the vote from SLAB people. In this euro ref Cameron's rating with Labour voters is near the bottom and Osborne's even wors, probably under 2%!TheScreamingEagles said:
That's the fear/hope depending on your viewpoint.Sean_F said:
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. It is about getting non Tories to vote for Remain and not as an option to stick to Dave or the Tories.Pulpstar said:
It is Sheffield Central.RoyalBlue said:
That tells us nothing. Why so coy?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a seat where Lab finished first and the Greens finished second with over 70% of the vote.RoyalBlue said:
What voting intention did you record overall, or is that classified?TheScreamingEagles said:
Vote Remain. You know it makes sense. It is the patriotic thing to do. It isn't patriotic to make poor vast swathes of the country like Brexit shall.Pulpstar said:Hmm Decisions decisions, should I lend against racing yachts, Londonderry property or sapphires and diamonds ^^;
The VI is along those lines.
If @Thescreamingeagles isn't finding "Remain" a long way ahead there, they are in trouble. To be perfectly honest it is more about GOTV than conversions there.
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Or those Remainers who think Putin is a trump card.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps you should raise that with the person who said Remainers on the same side as Gerry AdamsLuckyguy1983 said:
I'm delighted not to be feeble minded enough to care whose 'side' my considered view of events puts me on. If George Galloway wants to agree with me, that's dandy as far as I'm concerned - it's entirely his affair.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're on the same side as George Galloway.ThreeQuidder said:
You must be happy being on the same side as Gerry Adams.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Ken was right and IDS wrong.ThreeQuidder said:
Yes, he'd have expressed solidarity with France who had their own shoddy reasons for wanting Hussein kept in power.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ken Clarke as LOTO would have opposed the war.ThreeQuidder said:
I wanted Hussein removed if and only if there was a proper plan in place for what happened afterwards.david_herdson said:
IDS can't. He was leader of the Opposition and could - and should - have asked for a full briefing direct from the security services. It was his job *not* to take the PM at his word.rottenborough said:
Trouble is everyone who voted for it can claim that they were beguiled into supporting the war by Blair's hypnotic abilities.OldKingCole said:
IDS, IIRC was enthusiastically in support of the Iraq expedition.PlatoSaid said:
Can Blair's reputation fall further? It may re-energise some of the hate, can't see what more Chilcott can throw at him - we know all the Big Fibs. The other names are all has beens.pinkrose said:Estobar said:
What cannot easily been gainsaid is that this is an onslaught unlike anything seen in the last fifty years. Not even the Welsh Windbag endured this level of sustained attack. I cannot see how Remain can survive this and now expect the final referendum result to be:
.
LOL you think this is bad.......wait until the EU referendum is over and the Chilcott report is published. The sh*t will hit the fan. What the press will do to one Anthony Charles Lynton Blair will make the demonisation of Neil Kinnock seem like friendly banter.
Could IDS - or any LOTO - have learnt that there wasn't?
IDS wrong then, wrong now.
I salute your courage, your indefatigability etc0 -
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....Pulpstar said:
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands0 -
Both articles should put the willies right up Remain. Joe Public dismissing the alphabet soup, plagues, wardrobe monsters...TCPoliticalBetting said:
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.PlatoSaid said:
That MORI deserves a thread - how Remain are going to respond...0 -
aka the Venezuela future for the EU.chestnut said:Corbyn presenting the anti-trade, anti-prosperity, mass nationalisation vision of the EU.
0 -
The Vanilla site (a) puts the comments in the right order and (b) is much more mobile friendly than reading the comments on the main site.Patrick said:
That's an 'it's on the web' type of not really terribly helpful reply.ThreeQuidder said:
Read the comments on the Vanilla site.Patrick said:Moderator - how do you kill this irritating nesting of comments?
Politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com0 -
Jesus - Jezza is refusing to take questions unless his bag carrier invites them. And Laura K just got loudly hissed/booed by his invited audience.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes but what about the bees, the bees, my kingdom for the bees....?PlatoSaid said:Jezza's speech is living down to expectations. I'm really quite confused by his content. It's a messy mush of Remain, anti-EU - and Tory hating dogma...
0 -
Corbyn is basically saying higher taxes are the answer, not border control.
That's Labour's Vision for Remain.0 -
To think that the issue does not affect your own personal finances does not a Leaver make. I am not in a business that trades with europe so cannot see a significant effect on my personal finances.TCPoliticalBetting said:
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.PlatoSaid said:
The biggest effect on me personally would be staffing shortages and rota gaps, so being pressed to do more with less.0 -
As a matter of interest what do you find mobile-unfriendly about the main site? It seems fine to me (using Chrome on Android Marshmallow).ThreeQuidder said:
The Vanilla site (a) puts the comments in the right order and (b) is much more mobile friendly than reading the comments on the main site.Patrick said:
That's an 'it's on the web' type of not really terribly helpful reply.ThreeQuidder said:
Read the comments on the Vanilla site.Patrick said:Moderator - how do you kill this irritating nesting of comments?
Politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com0 -
Vote Leave will have allsorts of ammunition to target soft left moderate Labour voters with.TCPoliticalBetting said:
aka the Venezuela future for the EU.chestnut said:Corbyn presenting the anti-trade, anti-prosperity, mass nationalisation vision of the EU.
0 -
Miss Plato, if the pro-immigration stuff gets airtime, that may help move Labour voters (or recent but ex-Labour voters) to Leave.0
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In Jezza's world the only safe media outlet is Press TV....can you imagine the 4-6 week GE campaign...PlatoSaid said:
Jesus - Jezza is refusing to take questions unless his bag carrier invites them. And Laura K just got loudly hissed/booed by his invited audience.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes but what about the bees, the bees, my kingdom for the bees....?PlatoSaid said:Jezza's speech is living down to expectations. I'm really quite confused by his content. It's a messy mush of Remain, anti-EU - and Tory hating dogma...
0 -
0
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Liz Kershaw of DJ fame totally monstered two Remain bigwigs on Sky - she's very well read and killed Ms TUC O'Grady from the Left. She'd be superb for Leave.Patrick said:
If Yougov are correct, then there is a small (but potentially crucial) proportion of Labour voters (7%) who are voting Leave to kick Cameron
That's the fear/hope depending on your viewpoint.
They may also just hate the EU for good lefty reasons. The leader of the RMT, whose name I forget, was on Question Time the other day having a right old go at the EU - from the left. Maybe Vote Leave should wheel him out again. He was cogent, lucid and virulently anti-EU (probably Corbyn's true position). As a trade unionist, I think that he could help move the needle a bit. If you're a lefty Brit I can't see what attraction there is at all in being governed by non-British 'fiscal compact' Eurocrats.0 -
Why would you have staffing shortages?foxinsoxuk said:
.....The biggest effect on me personally would be staffing shortages and rota gaps, so being pressed to do more with less.TCPoliticalBetting said:
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.PlatoSaid said:
Trained people would be high on the points scale if there are insufficient UK workers with those skills. A spanish doctor is not going to be blocked. WHen independent anlysis was done (quoted on sky or bbc a week ago) they found that almost 90% of EU migrants were to unskilled jobs.
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Autocue probably said "clap here"...so he did.dr_spyn said:Cult of Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/7383036189405388800 -
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Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Manchester will all go heavily for Remain. I expect that smaller cities and large towns (eg Rotherham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Hull) will go for Leave.MarqueeMark said:
I'm not so sure about those northern urban areas....Pulpstar said:
England and Wales to vote out, Northern Ireland and Scotland (And Gibraltar) to go "Remain"Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Betting, I think you're overegging the cake. Remain, rightly, remains [ahem] favourite to win.
London and the northern urban areas to be the only "Remain" reservoirs in England. Landslide for "Leave" in the East Midlands0 -
A formidable looking bag carrier may I say.PlatoSaid said:
Jesus - Jezza is refusing to take questions unless his bag carrier invites them. And Laura K just got loudly hissed/booed by his invited audience.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes but what about the bees, the bees, my kingdom for the bees....?PlatoSaid said:Jezza's speech is living down to expectations. I'm really quite confused by his content. It's a messy mush of Remain, anti-EU - and Tory hating dogma...
0 -
What does TSE say?PlatoSaid said:
Both articles should put the willies right up Remain. Joe Public dismissing the alphabet soup, plagues, wardrobe monsters...TCPoliticalBetting said:
To have 2/3 of the voters thinking that way makes the idea of 60% for REMAIN, frankly seems to be a dream. Even getting over 50% looks to be optimistic. These are even more reasons for wavering REMAINers to stay at home on election day.PlatoSaid said:
That MORI deserves a thread - how Remain are going to respond...
0 -
ISIS shurely gets poll position?Casino_Royale said:
Or those Remainers who think Putin is a trump card.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps you should raise that with the person who said Remainers on the same side as Gerry AdamsLuckyguy1983 said:
I'm delighted not to be feeble minded enough to care whose 'side' my considered view of events puts me on. If George Galloway wants to agree with me, that's dandy as far as I'm concerned - it's entirely his affair.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're on the same side as George Galloway.ThreeQuidder said:
You must be happy being on the same side as Gerry Adams.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Ken was right and IDS wrong.ThreeQuidder said:
Yes, he'd have expressed solidarity with France who had their own shoddy reasons for wanting Hussein kept in power.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ken Clarke as LOTO would have opposed the war.ThreeQuidder said:
I wanted Hussein removed if and only if there was a proper plan in place for what happened afterwards.david_herdson said:
IDS can't. He was leader of the Opposition and could - and should - have asked for a full briefing direct from the security services. It was his job *not* to take the PM at his word.rottenborough said:
Trouble is everyone who voted for it can claim that they were beguiled into supporting the war by Blair's hypnotic abilities.OldKingCole said:
IDS, IIRC was enthusiastically in support of the Iraq expedition.PlatoSaid said:
Can Blair's reputation fall further? It may re-energise some of the hate, can't see what more Chilcott can throw at him - we know all the Big Fibs. The other names are all has beens.pinkrose said:Estobar said:
.
LOL you think this is bad.......wait until the EU referendum is over and the Chilcott report is published. The sh*t will hit the fan. What the press will do to one Anthony Charles Lynton Blair will make the demonisation of Neil Kinnock seem like friendly banter.
Could IDS - or any LOTO - have learnt that there wasn't?
IDS wrong then, wrong now.
I salute your courage, your indefatigability etc
Vote Leave and get beheaded.
FFS Lucy Thomas Dep Dir of StrongerIn is awful on Sky "artists have come out today for Remain"...0
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