politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leave’s major advantage in the last three weeks of the camp
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leave’s major advantage in the last three weeks of the campaign. The Tory press is on their side
One of the most fascinating aspects of this referendum campaign is a Tory PM and most of the Tory Press being on opposite sides. As Neil Kinnock and Ed Miliband can attest the press can very brutal. Whilst I don’t subscribe to the belief that it was solely The Sun wot won it at the 1992 general election, as a politician it is much more advantageous to have media on your side.
Comments
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First, question for the brains trust, is there a timetable for the referendum results? Just wondering when to open the champagne.
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First, damn second for the first time0
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Click on the excel file linkdr_spyn said:First, question for the brains trust, is there a timetable for the referendum results? Just wondering when to open the champagne.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/eu-referendum-count0 -
The Mirror has had a lot of articles not supportive of REMAIN.0
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That ICM n=2k online 27-30 May
EU Immigration
58% unhappy if current levels continue
55% believe bad for NHS
67% has put pressure on housing #Brexit
http://news.sky.com/story/1705440/pm-faces-sky-news-test-as-remain-loses-ground0 -
The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.0
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Times seems more supportive of REMAIN. Telegraph probabIy only 60/40 in split of LEAVE/REMAIN articles. Mail on Sunday is rabidly for REMAIN.0
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The Tory press has always been anti-immigrant. It hasn't changed. Until recently, Dave and George were happy to play along. They are reaping what they sowed.0
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Oh really. Worse than not joining the euro?Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
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I see the Mail is reporting that the murdered two year old in Fife was part of the named persons trial run0
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Much much worse.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Oh really. Worse than not joining the euro?Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
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Obviously the proof of the pudding is in the eating but I really am very surprised that Remain thought they could execute Project Fear without the total support of the print media.
I'm down grading my forecast to 57/43 Remain/Leave.0 -
Tbe next three weeks are going to be very entertaining if Remainians keep this up.(this post is delayed as I am currently under Hampstead)0
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The daily print media will continue their inexorable decline until such time as printed news becomes a solely weekly, or subscription only, affair, a bit like magazines in WH Smith. They'll probably become more specialised too.
However, I think both the Mail and The Times have a healthy digital online model, and the Sun survive in a form as a manual/working man's paper for quite some time, but I think the rest will just continue to shrink.0 -
Apart from the silly hyperbole our reputation for tolerance will take an almighty knock.Sean_F said:
The UK will become the Third Reich reborn.Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
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It certainly does. I wouldn't say it was pro-Remain at all. More 50-50. The Times is more 70/30 for Remain IMO.TCPoliticalBetting said:The Mirror has had a lot of articles not supportive of REMAIN.
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The mail is more dominant than ever. Currently switching between here and the free mailonline appCasino_Royale said:The daily print media will continue their inexorable decline until such time as printed news becomes a solely weekly, or subscription only, affair, a bit like magazines in WH Smith. They'll probably become more specialised too.
However, I think both the Mail and The Times have a healthy digital online model, and the Sun survive in a form as a manual/working man's paper for quite some time, but I think the rest will just continue to shrink.0 -
What changes do you expect to see?Roger said:
Apart from the silly hyperbole our reputation for tolerance will take an almighty knock.Sean_F said:
The UK will become the Third Reich reborn.Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
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Hyperbole much?Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
Worth noting that Austria is a part of the EU while Australia is not, I know which I think is more tolerant and has a better reputation nowadays,0 -
The reality. The Mail's parent issued a profits warning last week because of a decline of ad revenue at the MailPaul_Bedfordshire said:
The mail is more dominant than ever. Currently switching between here and the free mailonline appCasino_Royale said:The daily print media will continue their inexorable decline until such time as printed news becomes a solely weekly, or subscription only, affair, a bit like magazines in WH Smith. They'll probably become more specialised too.
However, I think both the Mail and The Times have a healthy digital online model, and the Sun survive in a form as a manual/working man's paper for quite some time, but I think the rest will just continue to shrink.0 -
Many thanks for that. Could be an interesting morning, marketing opportunity join PB's Referendum Champagne Breakfast Party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Click on the excel file linkdr_spyn said:First, question for the brains trust, is there a timetable for the referendum results? Just wondering when to open the champagne.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/eu-referendum-count0 -
The perpetual talk of the NHS being underfunded and in crisis, collapsing incomes, under-employment and housing 'crisis' has not originated from the Tories.SouthamObserver said:The Tory press has always been anti-immigrant. It hasn't changed. Until recently, Dave and George were happy to play along. They are reaping what they sowed.
These are the things that have been driving old Labour, working class voters into the arms of other parties, and which will see (I guess) 40%-50% of Labour voters plump for leave outside the usual metro/uni areas.0 -
The biggest surprise for me is just how badly prepared the Remain side has been for the immigration angle. They surely must have realised that this was going to be Leave's main line of attack and one that would strongly resonate. I guess if you spend the best part of a decade talking about floods of EU immigrants taking jobs, hording benefits and driving down wages you can't then do a complete reverse and expect to be viewed with anything other than total contempt.Alistair said:Obviously the proof of the pudding is in the eating but I really am very surprised that Remain thought they could execute Project Fear without the total support of the print media.
I'm down grading my forecast to 57/43 Remain/Leave.
As Farage observed yesterday, Tory Leavers have now embraced UKIP immigration policy. It's a funny old world.
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You might have to move abroad......Roger said:
Much much worse.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Oh really. Worse than not joining the euro?Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
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If there's a juicy story or murder - the Mail always has the full gory details. I haven't bought a paper copy of The Times in years, but they always had a good murder or scandal on Page 3 - the frontpage was always very sensiblePaul_Bedfordshire said:
The mail is more dominant than ever. Currently switching between here and the free mailonline appCasino_Royale said:The daily print media will continue their inexorable decline until such time as printed news becomes a solely weekly, or subscription only, affair, a bit like magazines in WH Smith. They'll probably become more specialised too.
However, I think both the Mail and The Times have a healthy digital online model, and the Sun survive in a form as a manual/working man's paper for quite some time, but I think the rest will just continue to shrink.
I get really annoyed with the Mail mobile site - if I share a story, it automatically moves me to the next article. I want to read the comments.
Incidentally, David Aaronovitch saying today he's seriously thinking of voting Tory, as he can't bear Corbyn. He's been moving crabwise to the right for decades - but his confession still surprised me.0 -
In that context a major golf tournament has just been moved from one of Trump’s courses because major advertisers and sponsors didn’t want to be associated with Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:
The reality. The Mail's parent issued a profits warning last week because of a decline of ad revenue at the MailPaul_Bedfordshire said:
The mail is more dominant than ever. Currently switching between here and the free mailonline appCasino_Royale said:The daily print media will continue their inexorable decline until such time as printed news becomes a solely weekly, or subscription only, affair, a bit like magazines in WH Smith. They'll probably become more specialised too.
However, I think both the Mail and The Times have a healthy digital online model, and the Sun survive in a form as a manual/working man's paper for quite some time, but I think the rest will just continue to shrink.
(Source. BBC)0 -
It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.chestnut said:
The perpetual talk of the NHS being underfunded and in crisis, collapsing incomes, under-employment and housing 'crisis' has not originated from the Tories.SouthamObserver said:The Tory press has always been anti-immigrant. It hasn't changed. Until recently, Dave and George were happy to play along. They are reaping what they sowed.
These are the things that have been driving old Labour, working class voters into the arms of other parties, and which will see (I guess) 40%-50% of Labour voters plump for leave outside the usual metro/uni areas.
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The Tory press is reflecting the anger of many conservatives. I have been a Conservative activist since the 1980s and have never felt so detached from my party. Things are not going to go back to being happy families by the end of this month. Cameron has behaved digracefully in this campaign and sickened many of us who put him there. There will have to be a reckoning within the party. Good news for Mr Corbyn and good luck to him. Those of us who have been on the receiving end of Bullingdon bullies must stick together.0
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I don't understand what they put in the soup of the MoS.TCPoliticalBetting said:Times seems more supportive of REMAIN. Telegraph probabIy only 60/40 in split of LEAVE/REMAIN articles. Mail on Sunday is rabidly for REMAIN.
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Yes, but that's print. Online the Mail is going from strength to strength, not just in the UK but worldwide.TheScreamingEagles said:
The reality. The Mail's parent issued a profits warning last week because of a decline of ad revenue at the MailPaul_Bedfordshire said:
The mail is more dominant than ever. Currently switching between here and the free mailonline appCasino_Royale said:The daily print media will continue their inexorable decline until such time as printed news becomes a solely weekly, or subscription only, affair, a bit like magazines in WH Smith. They'll probably become more specialised too.
However, I think both the Mail and The Times have a healthy digital online model, and the Sun survive in a form as a manual/working man's paper for quite some time, but I think the rest will just continue to shrink.0 -
The phrase was "Talk of the NHS etc" - not "The NHS..."SouthamObserver said:
It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.chestnut said:
The perpetual talk of the NHS being underfunded and in crisis, collapsing incomes, under-employment and housing 'crisis' has not originated from the Tories.SouthamObserver said:The Tory press has always been anti-immigrant. It hasn't changed. Until recently, Dave and George were happy to play along. They are reaping what they sowed.
These are the things that have been driving old Labour, working class voters into the arms of other parties, and which will see (I guess) 40%-50% of Labour voters plump for leave outside the usual metro/uni areas.
"Or else it doesn't, you know. The name of the song is called ‘Haddocks' Eyes.’”
“Oh, that's the name of the song, is it?" Alice said, trying to feel interested.
“No, you don't understand,” the Knight said, looking a little vexed. “That's what the name is called. The name really is ‘The Aged Aged Man.’”
“Then I ought to have said ‘That's what the song is called’?” Alice corrected herself.
“No, you oughtn't: that's quite another thing! The song is called ‘Ways And Means’: but that's only what it's called, you know!”
“Well, what is the song, then?” said Alice, who was by this time completely bewildered.
“I was coming to that,” the Knight said. “The song really is ‘A-sitting On A Gate’: and the tune's my own invention.”"
---
Someone should try learning a little grammar and syntax analysis.
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We are not going to get to 2020 without a general election, are we?0
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I saw your second comment the other day on my article. Thank you. Appreciated.Roger said:
Much much worse.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Oh really. Worse than not joining the euro?Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
Next week I'm off to see Don Giovanni at the Ulverston Music Festival and last night my beloved gave me the DVD of Losey's film of the opera, filmed in the Palladian villas in the Veneto. A real treat!0 -
Vapid something or other is the term, I believe.SouthamObserver said:It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.
Labour have churned out a lot of hyperbolic nonsense about these things, but the public are wise to the left's financial incontinence, and have seen that ever more money never seems to sort these things out so they have looked elsewhere for an answer.
They have concluded that it's the system. Excessive demand and poor allocation of resources.0 -
That's up to the House of Lords!SouthamObserver said:We are not going to get to 2020 without a general election, are we?
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Naz Shah seems to have had some possible problems with spreadsheet records of expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3620993/Labour-s-Naz-Shah-faces-spending-quiz-Documents-hotels-bills-peer-joined-campaign-trail-declared-national-expenditure.html
Has anyone told Channel 4 and Michael Crick?0 -
Great hats in that film.Cyclefree said:
I saw your second comment the other day on my article. Thank you. Appreciated.Roger said:
Much much worse.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Oh really. Worse than not joining the euro?Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
Next week I'm off to see Don Giovanni at the Ulverston Music Festival and last night my beloved gave me the DVD of Losey's film of the opera, filmed in the Palladian villas in the Veneto. A real treat!0 -
Guido thinks Cleggers has 17k problems toodr_spyn said:Naz Shah seems to have had some possible problems with spreadsheet records of expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3620993/Labour-s-Naz-Shah-faces-spending-quiz-Documents-hotels-bills-peer-joined-campaign-trail-declared-national-expenditure.html
Has anyone told Channel 4 and Michael Crick?0 -
There's a lot of difference between being tolerant and being a doormat.Roger said:
Apart from the silly hyperbole our reputation for tolerance will take an almighty knock.Sean_F said:
The UK will become the Third Reich reborn.Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
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A fair stab at the issue TSE: 5/10. You missed some tricks but it's not too bad an attempt. The rather peremptory 'Tory press' tag is a little beneath you and 'political waterboarding' is a metaphor probably best reserved for House of Cards fiction. The horror of waterboarding bears no relation to anything in politics.
That aside, you have equated declining circulation of dead tree press with influence. They are not synonymous. We are influenced by the newspapers in many ways: they are viewed online and on newsstands. They still find their way into waiting rooms. They also help direct a meme to which responses are often required: in other words, they help hold politicians and others to account. Over matters such as tax havens, expenses and even piggies they have proved still to have considerable influence.
What cannot easily been gainsaid is that this is an onslaught unlike anything seen in the last fifty years. Not even the Welsh Windbag endured this level of sustained attack. I cannot see how Remain can survive this and now expect the final referendum result to be:
Leave 55-59%
Remain 40-45%
And before you lampoon this I called the General Election spot on.0 -
The NHS is receiving more funding in real terms right now than it has ever had in its history. That may not be enough, nothing ever is but it is what we can afford.SouthamObserver said:
It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.chestnut said:
The perpetual talk of the NHS being underfunded and in crisis, collapsing incomes, under-employment and housing 'crisis' has not originated from the Tories.SouthamObserver said:The Tory press has always been anti-immigrant. It hasn't changed. Until recently, Dave and George were happy to play along. They are reaping what they sowed.
These are the things that have been driving old Labour, working class voters into the arms of other parties, and which will see (I guess) 40%-50% of Labour voters plump for leave outside the usual metro/uni areas.
Incomes are now rising quite strongly in real terms after a very prolonged period of stagnation and even falls after 2008. This is partly being driven by the living wage.
Actual employment is at a record high and most of the recent increases have been in full time employment. Clearly there are issues with the abuse of "self employment" but Universal Credit will address these.
Housing production has picked up substantially from a very low base. It is still too low, especially with a net 330,000 immigrants also needing housed.
I remain of the view that this government has done pretty well in very difficult circumstances. A comparator with our EU friends relative performance confirms that. It is, at the risk of understatement, unfortunate that a competent government is tearing itself apart over the EU. I fear what comes next will not be as good in or out.0 -
Firm, but fair...weejonnie said:
There's a lot of difference between being tolerant and being a doormat.Roger said:
Apart from the silly hyperbole our reputation for tolerance will take an almighty knock.Sean_F said:
The UK will become the Third Reich reborn.Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
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Casino_Royale said:
Yes, but that's print. Online the Mail is going from strength to strength, not just in the UK but worldwide.TheScreamingEagles said:
The reality. The Mail's parent issued a profits warning last week because of a decline of ad revenue at the MailPaul_Bedfordshire said:
The mail is more dominant than ever. Currently switching between here and the free mailonline appCasino_Royale said:The daily print media will continue their inexorable decline until such time as printed news becomes a solely weekly, or subscription only, affair, a bit like magazines in WH Smith. They'll probably become more specialised too.
However, I think both the Mail and The Times have a healthy digital online model, and the Sun survive in a form as a manual/working man's paper for quite some time, but I think the rest will just continue to shrink.
Yep it's globally huge.0 -
Singing wasn't bad either.Wanderer said:
Great hats in that film.Cyclefree said:
I saw your second comment the other day on my article. Thank you. Appreciated.Roger said:
Much much worse.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Oh really. Worse than not joining the euro?Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
Next week I'm off to see Don Giovanni at the Ulverston Music Festival and last night my beloved gave me the DVD of Losey's film of the opera, filmed in the Palladian villas in the Veneto. A real treat!0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Bizarro world? The world's the same as it ever was, it's the PM that's behaving Bizarro.0 -
Old Holborn
1989 - Eastern Europe
"If we leave the Soviet Union, we risk not trading with Moscow. Better to stay under undemocratic rule"
#Brexit0 -
It is not pro Remain let alone rabidly so.TCPoliticalBetting said:Mail on Sunday is rabidly for REMAIN.
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The last time there was a referendum on our membership of the EC/EU the Tory leader campaigned for the UK to remain, quite vocally.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Bizarro world? The world's the same as it ever was, it's the PM that's behaving Bizarro.
Dave is following in the footsteps of Thatcher.0 -
Yes, you would say that, wouldn't you? :-)chestnut said:
Vapid something or other is the term, I believe.SouthamObserver said:It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.
Labour have churned out a lot of hyperbolic nonsense about these things, but the public are wise to the left's financial incontinence, and have seen that ever more money never seems to sort these things out so they have looked elsewhere for an answer.
They have concluded that it's the system. Excessive demand and poor allocation of resources.
The government - supported by Leavers - has made choices. The main one is to seek to eliminate the deficit by 2020. That has meant delivering significant cuts to public services and squeezing tax revenues. The least advantaged have borne the bulk of the cost on both fronts. I can see why blaming immigrants is more attractive for parts of the right, though.
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I firmly believe that whatever the outcome, the Tory party will be in a very bad place once the dust has settled in late June. There's just no way they can all shake hands, congratulate the winner and get back to normal. Things have been said and done that just can't be ignored or forgiven.
Labour under Corbyn might just be playing a very clever game by keeping quiet on the EU.0 -
AFP
#BREAKING: Turkey says German vote on Armenian 'genocide' a 'test of friendship'0 -
The Mail online is an inspired product, using best web practice to appeal to conservative outrage and titilation and prurience at the same time.Estobar said:Casino_Royale said:
Yes, but that's print. Online the Mail is going from strength to strength, not just in the UK but worldwide.TheScreamingEagles said:
The reality. The Mail's parent issued a profits warning last week because of a decline of ad revenue at the MailPaul_Bedfordshire said:
The mail is more dominant than ever. Currently switching between here and the free mailonline appCasino_Royale said:The daily print media will continue their inexorable decline until such time as printed news becomes a solely weekly, or subscription only, affair, a bit like magazines in WH Smith. They'll probably become more specialised too.
However, I think both the Mail and The Times have a healthy digital online model, and the Sun survive in a form as a manual/working man's paper for quite some time, but I think the rest will just continue to shrink.
Yep it's globally huge.
That said its increasing global digital content dilutes its political voice back home. A stream of Kim Kardasian articles packs less political punch.
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When you posted something similar about our taking (or not) refugees I thought you were wrong but this time I think you may be right. It's not the fact of our leaving the EU (if that happens) but the tone of the Leave campaign.Roger said:
Apart from the silly hyperbole our reputation for tolerance will take an almighty knock.Sean_F said:
The UK will become the Third Reich reborn.Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
However I don't know if anyone outside the UK is paying much attention.
Actually I think the body whose reputation may be most affected is the Conservative Party.0 -
Is Old Holborn still going? I remember the early Swear Bloggers with a sort of guilty affection. Devils Kitchen, Counting Cats and the like we're always savagely funny. The Devil never really recovered from his brush with Andrew Neil.PlatoSaid said:
Old Holborn
1989 - Eastern Europe
"If we leave the Soviet Union, we risk not trading with Moscow. Better to stay under undemocratic rule"
#Brexit0 -
His article in the Mirror was a hoot.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Bizarro world? The world's the same as it ever was, it's the PM that's behaving Bizarro.0 -
In fiscal terms, the biggest percentage burden since 2010 has been borne by the richest 10% of taxpayers.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, you would say that, wouldn't you? :-)chestnut said:
Vapid something or other is the term, I believe.SouthamObserver said:It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.
Labour have churned out a lot of hyperbolic nonsense about these things, but the public are wise to the left's financial incontinence, and have seen that ever more money never seems to sort these things out so they have looked elsewhere for an answer.
They have concluded that it's the system. Excessive demand and poor allocation of resources.
The government - supported by Leavers - has made choices. The main one is to seek to eliminate the deficit by 2020. That has meant delivering significant cuts to public services and squeezing tax revenues. The least advantaged have borne the bulk of the cost on both fronts. I can see why blaming immigrants is more attractive for parts of the right, though.0 -
The DM and MoS have two different editors - hence the very different attitudes to the EU vote.Estobar said:
It is not pro Remain let alone rabidly so.TCPoliticalBetting said:Mail on Sunday is rabidly for REMAIN.
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The Tory press is actually more divided, the Times for instance will back Remain and while the Telegraph backs Leave it has been pretty balanced. Overall the Mirror, the Star, the FT, The Guardian, and The Independent online will back Remain while the Sun, the Express, the Mail and the Telegraph will back Leave. So actually slightly more papers back Remain than back Leave0
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Was that where he argued that the EU defends workers' rights from his own government?PlatoSaid said:
His article in the Mirror was a hoot.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Bizarro world? The world's the same as it ever was, it's the PM that's behaving Bizarro.0 -
Indeeddr_spyn said:
Singing wasn't bad either.Wanderer said:
Great hats in that film.Cyclefree said:
I saw your second comment the other day on my article. Thank you. Appreciated.Roger said:
Much much worse.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Oh really. Worse than not joining the euro?Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
Next week I'm off to see Don Giovanni at the Ulverston Music Festival and last night my beloved gave me the DVD of Losey's film of the opera, filmed in the Palladian villas in the Veneto. A real treat!
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How do PBers think PB's Alanbrooke react when I do a thread with the following comparisons
Dave = Sir Winston Churchill
Tory Leavers = The modern day Lord Halifaxes
George Osborne = Field Marshall Sir Alan Brooke0 -
I can only assume that Remain thought Leave would go for EEA/EFTA. Seems a pretty fatal underestimation. Amazing how complacency is always what does for establishment views....SouthamObserver said:
The biggest surprise for me is just how badly prepared the Remain side has been for the immigration angle. They surely must have realised that this was going to be Leave's main line of attack and one that would strongly resonate. I guess if you spend the best part of a decade talking about floods of EU immigrants taking jobs, hording benefits and driving down wages you can't then do a complete reverse and expect to be viewed with anything other than total contempt.Alistair said:Obviously the proof of the pudding is in the eating but I really am very surprised that Remain thought they could execute Project Fear without the total support of the print media.
I'm down grading my forecast to 57/43 Remain/Leave.
As Farage observed yesterday, Tory Leavers have now embraced UKIP immigration policy. It's a funny old world.0 -
If you choose to cut public services or even maintain them at the same level it does not make a whole lot of sense to increase demand for those same services at the same time. Nor does it make sense not to recover the costs of providing those services from those who are not entitled to receive them for free, something which the NHS has been poor at doing.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, you would say that, wouldn't you? :-)chestnut said:
Vapid something or other is the term, I believe.SouthamObserver said:It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.
Labour have churned out a lot of hyperbolic nonsense about these things, but the public are wise to the left's financial incontinence, and have seen that ever more money never seems to sort these things out so they have looked elsewhere for an answer.
They have concluded that it's the system. Excessive demand and poor allocation of resources.
The government - supported by Leavers - has made choices. The main one is to seek to eliminate the deficit by 2020. That has meant delivering significant cuts to public services and squeezing tax revenues. The least advantaged have borne the bulk of the cost on both fronts. I can see why blaming immigrants is more attractive for parts of the right, though.
The public are entitled to ask the government to attempt some sort of coherence in its policies. Whatever level of immigration you choose to have then it is incumbent on the government to plan properly for the necessary infrastructure. If that is not done then it's not surprising that the public will look to reduce the demand.
This is a mess caused, in part, because of a refusal by all governments to be honest about immigration and its consequences, both good and bad.0 -
Pure sophistry, the richest 10% have experienced no hardship whatsoever.Sean_F said:
In fiscal terms, the biggest percentage burden since 2010 has been borne by the richest 10% of taxpayers.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, you would say that, wouldn't you? :-)chestnut said:
Vapid something or other is the term, I believe.SouthamObserver said:It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.
Labour have churned out a lot of hyperbolic nonsense about these things, but the public are wise to the left's financial incontinence, and have seen that ever more money never seems to sort these things out so they have looked elsewhere for an answer.
They have concluded that it's the system. Excessive demand and poor allocation of resources.
The government - supported by Leavers - has made choices. The main one is to seek to eliminate the deficit by 2020. That has meant delivering significant cuts to public services and squeezing tax revenues. The least advantaged have borne the bulk of the cost on both fronts. I can see why blaming immigrants is more attractive for parts of the right, though.0 -
Couldn't agree more.Concanvasser said:The Tory press is reflecting the anger of many conservatives. I have been a Conservative activist since the 1980s and have never felt so detached from my party. Things are not going to go back to being happy families by the end of this month. Cameron has behaved digracefully in this campaign and sickened many of us who put him there. There will have to be a reckoning within the party. Good news for Mr Corbyn and good luck to him. Those of us who have been on the receiving end of Bullingdon bullies must stick together.
If Osborne gets anywhere near the leadership I will be resigning my membership.
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Mr. Eagles, you may as well compare Marcellus with Cato. The two situations are not comparable, unless you think the EU of today is the same as the EC of four decades ago.
Miss Plato, I wonder if Bizarro-Cameron ought to be Noremac. Could be wrong, not my area, but I think Bizarro things get their names reversed.
Miss Plato 2, when's the vote take place?0 -
I think as a generality the less Corbyn says or does the better he is thought of. The old saying of a fool being better to remain silent is apposite.TwistedFireStopper said:I firmly believe that whatever the outcome, the Tory party will be in a very bad place once the dust has settled in late June. There's just no way they can all shake hands, congratulate the winner and get back to normal. Things have been said and done that just can't be ignored or forgiven.
Labour under Corbyn might just be playing a very clever game by keeping quiet on the EU.
But yes, we are heading for an unstable minority government which will be unable to implement its legislative program and will struggle to even pass a budget. I agree with Southam that an election before 2020 looks inevitable. The only question is how long the remnants of this government will seek to hang on.0 -
Agreed. Some good odds on under 40 and 40-45 on BF. I'm on. But DYOR!Estobar said:A fair stab at the issue TSE: 5/10. You missed some tricks but it's not too bad an attempt. The rather peremptory 'Tory press' tag is a little beneath you and 'political waterboarding' is a metaphor probably best reserved for House of Cards fiction. The horror of waterboarding bears no relation to anything in politics.
That aside, you have equated declining circulation of dead tree press with influence. They are not synonymous. We are influenced by the newspapers in many ways: they are viewed online and on newsstands. They still find their way into waiting rooms. They also help direct a meme to which responses are often required: in other words, they help hold politicians and others to account. Over matters such as tax havens, expenses and even piggies they have proved still to have considerable influence.
What cannot easily been gainsaid is that this is an onslaught unlike anything seen in the last fifty years. Not even the Welsh Windbag endured this level of sustained attack. I cannot see how Remain can survive this and now expect the final referendum result to be:
Leave 55-59%
Remain 40-45%
And before you lampoon this I called the General Election spot on.0 -
Far worse. LEAVE will make racism respectable, and from there history shows it's only a short step to making it compulsory.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Oh really. Worse than not joining the euro?Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
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There is a corollary to this. If Leave lose, it will be a shattering defeat for the Conservative press, one from which their authority will not recover. You can't hammer away with the sheer mendacity that the Mail and the Express have shown in this campaign, lose and then retain a hold over politicians. The politicians will correctly conclude that the press can be bypassed.0
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I know. I write for both.PlatoSaid said:
The DM and MoS have two different editors - hence the very different attitudes to the EU vote.Estobar said:
It is not pro Remain let alone rabidly so.TCPoliticalBetting said:Mail on Sunday is rabidly for REMAIN.
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Tory Leaders campaign in Eurosceptic poetry but govern in Pro European prose.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, you may as well compare Marcellus with Cato. The two situations are not comparable, unless you think the EU of today is the same as the EC of four decades ago.
Miss Plato, I wonder if Bizarro-Cameron ought to be Noremac. Could be wrong, not my area, but I think Bizarro things get their names reversed.
Miss Plato 2, when's the vote take place?0 -
We're all still around. Anna Raccoon, OH [who keeps being monstered by belligerent Scousers], Obonoxio, Gimpy, Ambush Predator, Charlotte Gore... Must be ten years+ since we got involved.TwistedFireStopper said:
Is Old Holborn still going? I remember the early Swear Bloggers with a sort of guilty affection. Devils Kitchen, Counting Cats and the like we're always savagely funny. The Devil never really recovered from his brush with Andrew Neil.PlatoSaid said:
Old Holborn
1989 - Eastern Europe
"If we leave the Soviet Union, we risk not trading with Moscow. Better to stay under undemocratic rule"
#Brexit
I loved Devil, and that Neil encounter was just awful. He pops up very occasionally - but for job reasons he just talks about software.0 -
Desperate stuff.TheScreamingEagles said:
The last time there was a referendum on our membership of the EC/EU the Tory leader campaigned for the UK to remain, quite vocally.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Bizarro world? The world's the same as it ever was, it's the PM that's behaving Bizarro.
Dave is following in the footsteps of Thatcher.0 -
Quite the reverse, British prestige amongst Europeans will skyrocket should Brexit be delivered.Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
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You're obsessed with silly ideas for laws.Innocent_Abroad said:
Far worse. LEAVE will make racism respectable, and from there history shows it's only a short step to making it compulsory.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Oh really. Worse than not joining the euro?Roger said:The least of our problems. The reputational damage to the UK in the event of a Brexit doesn't bare thinking about. Austria will look like a beacon of tolerance in comparison.
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Cameron is a disgrace of a man. His true colours have shone during this eu campaign. I couldnt believe how he could slander Sadiq Khan one minute then share a platform the next. You cannot trust a word Cameron says.
How is it that ever since becoming a Tory MP he has been happy to stand on a Tory manifesto that promises lower immigration and an Australian style points system and whilst Tory leader has promised "no ifs no buts" to bring immigration to under 100,000 per year, but suddenly anyone advocating exactly these policies will "crash the economy"?????
WHAT A CHARLATAN!!0 -
Is that true? The Mail (etc) can easily destroy an individual politician's reputation. As such, they will always get attention and respect.AlastairMeeks said:There is a corollary to this. If Leave lose, it will be a shattering defeat for the Conservative press, one from which their authority will not recover. You can't hammer away with the sheer mendacity that the Mail and the Express have shown in this campaign, lose and then retain a hold over politicians. The politicians will correctly conclude that the press can be bypassed.
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That's the oneSean_F said:
Was that where he argued that the EU defends workers' rights from his own government?PlatoSaid said:
His article in the Mirror was a hoot.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Bizarro world? The world's the same as it ever was, it's the PM that's behaving Bizarro.
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It's accurate though. Thatcher also signed the Single European Act. Dave nor Ted Heath signed us up to anything quite like that.Casino_Royale said:
Desperate stuff.TheScreamingEagles said:
The last time there was a referendum on our membership of the EC/EU the Tory leader campaigned for the UK to remain, quite vocally.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Bizarro world? The world's the same as it ever was, it's the PM that's behaving Bizarro.
Dave is following in the footsteps of Thatcher.0 -
Interesting comments.Concanvasser said:The Tory press is reflecting the anger of many conservatives. I have been a Conservative activist since the 1980s and have never felt so detached from my party. Things are not going to go back to being happy families by the end of this month. Cameron has behaved digracefully in this campaign and sickened many of us who put him there. There will have to be a reckoning within the party. Good news for Mr Corbyn and good luck to him. Those of us who have been on the receiving end of Bullingdon bullies must stick together.
I've been chatting to a Labour constituency chair who reckons 1/3rd his members are strongly anti the EU and that there's deep frustration and anger.
Much more anecdotal, someone I know well contacted me the other day to say they were genuinely on the fence until they saw how Cameron has conducted himself. They are now voting Leave.0 -
Wrong tense. Could.Jonathan said:
Is that true? The Mail (etc) can easily destroy an individual politician's reputation. As such, they will always get attention and respect.AlastairMeeks said:There is a corollary to this. If Leave lose, it will be a shattering defeat for the Conservative press, one from which their authority will not recover. You can't hammer away with the sheer mendacity that the Mail and the Express have shown in this campaign, lose and then retain a hold over politicians. The politicians will correctly conclude that the press can be bypassed.
This referendum could be where we hear the crash of the dead tree press toppling over.0 -
Parties losing public support leads to their collapse. cf Lib DemsAlastairMeeks said:There is a corollary to this. If Leave lose, it will be a shattering defeat for the Conservative press, one from which their authority will not recover. You can't hammer away with the sheer mendacity that the Mail and the Express have shown in this campaign, lose and then retain a hold over politicians. The politicians will correctly conclude that the press can be bypassed.
The 'Tory press' is reflective of a good deal of public opinion for Tory and UKIP voters, and a good deal of Labour voters too.
Politicians could ignore the press, but they'd also be ignoring a good deal of their voters.0 -
Which is a distraction. Short of rerunning the October Revolution, the richest 10% will never experience 'hardship' from government policies.Jonathan said:
Pure sophistry, the richest 10% have experienced no hardship whatsoever.Sean_F said:
In fiscal terms, the biggest percentage burden since 2010 has been borne by the richest 10% of taxpayers.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, you would say that, wouldn't you? :-)chestnut said:
Vapid something or other is the term, I believe.SouthamObserver said:It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.
Labour have churned out a lot of hyperbolic nonsense about these things, but the public are wise to the left's financial incontinence, and have seen that ever more money never seems to sort these things out so they have looked elsewhere for an answer.
They have concluded that it's the system. Excessive demand and poor allocation of resources.
The government - supported by Leavers - has made choices. The main one is to seek to eliminate the deficit by 2020. That has meant delivering significant cuts to public services and squeezing tax revenues. The least advantaged have borne the bulk of the cost on both fronts. I can see why blaming immigrants is more attractive for parts of the right, though.0 -
My comment is factually correct. A better argument is that they are in a better position to bear that burden than most.Jonathan said:
Pure sophistry, the richest 10% have experienced no hardship whatsoever.Sean_F said:
In fiscal terms, the biggest percentage burden since 2010 has been borne by the richest 10% of taxpayers.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, you would say that, wouldn't you? :-)chestnut said:
Vapid something or other is the term, I believe.SouthamObserver said:It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.
Labour have churned out a lot of hyperbolic nonsense about these things, but the public are wise to the left's financial incontinence, and have seen that ever more money never seems to sort these things out so they have looked elsewhere for an answer.
They have concluded that it's the system. Excessive demand and poor allocation of resources.
The government - supported by Leavers - has made choices. The main one is to seek to eliminate the deficit by 2020. That has meant delivering significant cuts to public services and squeezing tax revenues. The least advantaged have borne the bulk of the cost on both fronts. I can see why blaming immigrants is more attractive for parts of the right, though.0 -
All this is very bad news for Brexit negotiations too. The Commission and the member states will see a divided government that cannot get legislation through Parliament and wonder how on earth any kind of meaningful deal can be done. If we do vote to leave then a GE surely becomes inevitable.DavidL said:
I think as a generality the less Corbyn says or does the better he is thought of. The old saying of a fool being better to remain silent is apposite.TwistedFireStopper said:I firmly believe that whatever the outcome, the Tory party will be in a very bad place once the dust has settled in late June. There's just no way they can all shake hands, congratulate the winner and get back to normal. Things have been said and done that just can't be ignored or forgiven.
Labour under Corbyn might just be playing a very clever game by keeping quiet on the EU.
But yes, we are heading for an unstable minority government which will be unable to implement its legislative program and will struggle to even pass a budget. I agree with Southam that an election before 2020 looks inevitable. The only question is how long the remnants of this government will seek to hang on.
0 -
Fancy a wager about that?!AlastairMeeks said:Jonathan said:
Is that true? The Mail (etc) can easily destroy an individual politician's reputation. As such, they will always get attention and respect.AlastairMeeks said:There is a corollary to this. If Leave lose, it will be a shattering defeat for the Conservative press, one from which their authority will not recover. You can't hammer away with the sheer mendacity that the Mail and the Express have shown in this campaign, lose and then retain a hold over politicians. The politicians will correctly conclude that the press can be bypassed.
This referendum could be where we hear the crash of the dead tree press toppling over.
0 -
When you discover you've actually got New Labour Plus, not Tories - it's perfectly understandable that so many are unhappy/feel duped.Mortimer said:
Couldn't agree more.Concanvasser said:The Tory press is reflecting the anger of many conservatives. I have been a Conservative activist since the 1980s and have never felt so detached from my party. Things are not going to go back to being happy families by the end of this month. Cameron has behaved digracefully in this campaign and sickened many of us who put him there. There will have to be a reckoning within the party. Good news for Mr Corbyn and good luck to him. Those of us who have been on the receiving end of Bullingdon bullies must stick together.
If Osborne gets anywhere near the leadership I will be resigning my membership.0 -
Completely agree. This is also an area that divides remainers, from people like me at one end who see freedom of movement as an asset of membership and vital to family life, and Theresa May at the other end who see it as a tolerable necessity for the overall benefits of membership. Remain seem unable to cope with that spectrum, and given how the Tories have spent years trying talk about immigration, switching every question to the economy sounds lame.SouthamObserver said:
The biggest surprise for me is just how badly prepared the Remain side has been for the immigration angle. They surely must have realised that this was going to be Leave's main line of attack and one that would strongly resonate. I guess if you spend the best part of a decade talking about floods of EU immigrants taking jobs, hording benefits and driving down wages you can't then do a complete reverse and expect to be viewed with anything other than total contempt.Alistair said:Obviously the proof of the pudding is in the eating but I really am very surprised that Remain thought they could execute Project Fear without the total support of the print media.
I'm down grading my forecast to 57/43 Remain/Leave.
As Farage observed yesterday, Tory Leavers have now embraced UKIP immigration policy. It's a funny old world.
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AlastairMeeks said:
There is a corollary to this. If Leave lose, it will be a shattering defeat for the Conservative press, one from which their authority will not recover. You can't hammer away with the sheer mendacity that the Mail and the Express have shown in this campaign, lose and then retain a hold over politicians. The politicians will correctly conclude that the press can be bypassed.
Actually both stables (Mail and MoS) have printed some extremely good, thoughtful, articles on both sides of the fence. So you're really just spewing out your own innate prejudices.0 -
Not with you, no. I have no idea who you are.Estobar said:
Fancy a wager about that?!AlastairMeeks said:Jonathan said:
Is that true? The Mail (etc) can easily destroy an individual politician's reputation. As such, they will always get attention and respect.AlastairMeeks said:There is a corollary to this. If Leave lose, it will be a shattering defeat for the Conservative press, one from which their authority will not recover. You can't hammer away with the sheer mendacity that the Mail and the Express have shown in this campaign, lose and then retain a hold over politicians. The politicians will correctly conclude that the press can be bypassed.
This referendum could be where we hear the crash of the dead tree press toppling over.
In any case, I doubt we could agree on framing terms.0 -
Don't know re the vote, Bizarro-Cameron needs a Viz name.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, you may as well compare Marcellus with Cato. The two situations are not comparable, unless you think the EU of today is the same as the EC of four decades ago.
Miss Plato, I wonder if Bizarro-Cameron ought to be Noremac. Could be wrong, not my area, but I think Bizarro things get their names reversed.
Miss Plato 2, when's the vote take place?0 -
I'm not so sure. If, say, Remain scrape home, but centre-right voters back Leave by 70/30, their influence on that side of the political spectrum will remain considerable.AlastairMeeks said:
Wrong tense. Could.Jonathan said:
Is that true? The Mail (etc) can easily destroy an individual politician's reputation. As such, they will always get attention and respect.AlastairMeeks said:There is a corollary to this. If Leave lose, it will be a shattering defeat for the Conservative press, one from which their authority will not recover. You can't hammer away with the sheer mendacity that the Mail and the Express have shown in this campaign, lose and then retain a hold over politicians. The politicians will correctly conclude that the press can be bypassed.
This referendum could be where we hear the crash of the dead tree press toppling over.0 -
The front page headline piece last Friday was a direct lie, as even the article itself admitted in its final sentence.Estobar said:AlastairMeeks said:There is a corollary to this. If Leave lose, it will be a shattering defeat for the Conservative press, one from which their authority will not recover. You can't hammer away with the sheer mendacity that the Mail and the Express have shown in this campaign, lose and then retain a hold over politicians. The politicians will correctly conclude that the press can be bypassed.
Actually both stables (Mail and MoS) have printed some extremely good, thoughtful, articles on both sides of the fence. So you're really just spewing out your own innate prejudices.0 -
Well a PM would sort out the who I am bit so that sounds like evasion to me. And I'm sure I could frame something suitable. For instance, who wins the vote?!AlastairMeeks said:
Not with you, no. I have no idea who you are.Estobar said:
Fancy a wager about that?!AlastairMeeks said:Jonathan said:
Is that true? The Mail (etc) can easily destroy an individual politician's reputation. As such, they will always get attention and respect.AlastairMeeks said:There is a corollary to this. If Leave lose, it will be a shattering defeat for the Conservative press, one from which their authority will not recover. You can't hammer away with the sheer mendacity that the Mail and the Express have shown in this campaign, lose and then retain a hold over politicians. The politicians will correctly conclude that the press can be bypassed.
This referendum could be where we hear the crash of the dead tree press toppling over.
In any case, I doubt we could agree on framing terms.
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The poorest have been hardest hit. The richest have been least affected. And that pattern is set to continue:Sean_F said:
In fiscal terms, the biggest percentage burden since 2010 has been borne by the richest 10% of taxpayers.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, you would say that, wouldn't you? :-)chestnut said:
Vapid something or other is the term, I believe.SouthamObserver said:It's good to see Tory Leavers now accept that the NHS is underfunded, incomes have collapsed, employment figures are a sham and there is a housing crisis. It's a shame, though, that they have done so little about tackling these issues and in many cases have exacerbated them.
Labour have churned out a lot of hyperbolic nonsense about these things, but the public are wise to the left's financial incontinence, and have seen that ever more money never seems to sort these things out so they have looked elsewhere for an answer.
They have concluded that it's the system. Excessive demand and poor allocation of resources.
The government - supported by Leavers - has made choices. The main one is to seek to eliminate the deficit by 2020. That has meant delivering significant cuts to public services and squeezing tax revenues. The least advantaged have borne the bulk of the cost on both fronts. I can see why blaming immigrants is more attractive for parts of the right, though.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/737525064199856128/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
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Of course there is no certainty of an election delivering a working majority for any party. Or even enough Conservative seats for them to continue in office.SouthamObserver said:
All this is very bad news for Brexit negotiations too. The Commission and the member states will see a divided government that cannot get legislation through Parliament and wonder how on earth any kind of meaningful deal can be done. If we do vote to leave then a GE surely becomes inevitable.DavidL said:
I think as a generality the less Corbyn says or does the better he is thought of. The old saying of a fool being better to remain silent is apposite.TwistedFireStopper said:I firmly believe that whatever the outcome, the Tory party will be in a very bad place once the dust has settled in late June. There's just no way they can all shake hands, congratulate the winner and get back to normal. Things have been said and done that just can't be ignored or forgiven.
Labour under Corbyn might just be playing a very clever game by keeping quiet on the EU.
But yes, we are heading for an unstable minority government which will be unable to implement its legislative program and will struggle to even pass a budget. I agree with Southam that an election before 2020 looks inevitable. The only question is how long the remnants of this government will seek to hang on.0
