politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM Phone poll sees Leave 4% ahead. A fortnight ago Remain
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM Phone poll sees Leave 4% ahead. A fortnight ago Remain was ahead by 10%
Like last night’s ORB phone poll, there’s been a significant shift to Leave, this time a 7% swing from Remain to Leave. What makes this poll very interesting is that ICM online poll has seen no movement whatsoever.
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Does this mean that Fox and James whupped Salmond and Johnson on the BBC last week? Only 2m viewers, mind.
Also back to showing pensioners in favour of Out.
In fact, he needs to go beyond fear, to terror.
The Register
As poll shows #Brexit lead, Google has been demoting pro-Brexit views in its search results https://t.co/ZG7JpBcLY8 https://t.co/Ltjont4xG8
Agree that Leave is still value, very good value, at 3/1.
The more adjectives, the bigger the whopper.
4.1 for Leave is surely huge value, if the polls are close to accurate.
Cameron will need to turn it up to World War Eleven.
I think this campaign has brought it home to the electorate that the government is powerless to control its own borders vis a vis EU immigration. It still seems bonkers to me that we have no democratic control over it, and I've known about it for years. Now that the wider electorate have cottoned-on, there will likely be trouble.
It would not surprise me in the slightest if the sole issue of EU immigration led to Brexit.
Immigration is the key......this vote is taking place right in the middle of migrant season coming from Libya. The whole thing can be conflated with any terrorist incident in the interim period. And we are likely to do shit at the Euros to boot.
Most
All the original comments will still be there.
Perhaps that is what the "Vow" will be a few days before referendum day? An emergency brake on EU immigration, rushed through by the EU?
What Remain need to come up with is a way of conveying the EU vision as a desirable future.
However, if it can be arranged, I’d give it a go!
Macro economic models as stated by the IMF, Osborne, the Commission and anyone else count for nowt if on your micro level, you perceive your job's been undercut, you perceive your kid can't get into the primary school close by because it's full, or that the NHS dentist down the High St is oversubscribed.
Boats appearing in the Channel with migrants on board heading towards the coast of Kent is a deeply visceral image for an island nation's psyche and must've appeared in Remain's nightmare scenarios. Well, however small and insignificant of themselves it's happened now and it will be giving pause for thought in Downing St as well as Berlin, and Brussels.
I still think it's a "bank Holiday Poll" etc etc but Leave have found their Mojo here and it's still not quite over with three weeks to go. Who would've thought we'd get such a run for our money?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NjTE2vpMA8
I've asked for years for somebody to give me a really positive case-study of the EU and of how wonderful it is. Nobody has ever done so.
It's illiberal. Unaccountable. Fussy. Nosey. Bullying (see Greece). Undemocratic. It started out as a project with very good intentions, but in a world where we as individuals demand choice and want power at our fingertips it has become a one-fits-all organisation with power at its centre, far away from the grasp of voters.
The chatterers won't remember, though, how they believed hook line and sinker the original story that leading Tory Leavers weren't going to criticise David Cameron's leadership of the government. Some of them even said he could stay in office even if Leave wins, so long as it doesn't get more than 55%. I jest not. Bwahaha!
I also think the imagery of immigration is just so powerful as you allude to.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07ggk4g
I saw some of it.
They had agreed that the difference between the online and telephone polling was largely due to the number of graduates in the samples.
There was also discussion about the right number of graduates to include which adjusted for turnout was about 40%.
ConRes had done a lot of work on backward predicting general election results by adjusting each constituency for wealth and turnout.
The polling companies were all loooking to adjust their samples for the number of graduates and turnout.
This could explain some of the change in the latest telephone poll.
Now if only NATO could be associated with needless bureaucracy, lots of jollies, and enormous rates of immigration, and the EU could be associated with stepping in where others failed, and clearing up, and helping Britain out in times of trouble, etc.
Has anyone ever seen a "Help for Heroes" sticker and a pro-Remain one in the same car?
Much like scottish independence, this is a gut choice not a head choice.
His personally undertaken EU so-called renegotiation was a complete joke, compounded by the way in which he then tried to take the electorate as fools by pretending he had achieved a great deal.
The whole sorry saga was made all the worse when it became clear that his Government were unwilling and incapable of doing anything about controlling immigration levels after 6 years+ in office.
He's finished!
Would you swap a leave vote for Corbyn as PM?
Day 1: 4% swing to Leave
Day 2: 7% swing to Leave.
Anyone want to guess what the swing will be on day 22 of Mike's holiday?
Sounds awesome!
@AndrewSparrow: Sterling falls after Guardian/ICM poll shows rise in support for Brexit - https://t.co/BEORYr0wHt
The EU is the establishment of the establishment, so far removed from the man in the street.
There's nothing more disliked than an impotent but also all powerful body.
What no-one expected was the might of the Establishment Machine to be full-on norovirus.
The Leave David was expecting the Remain Goliath. But Remain have actually sent their own David - Cameron - except he seems to have misplaced his sling-shot.....
I'm reversing my Wales "Brexit" position, though the subsample is small Wales clearly seems to favour "out" - or is at best too close to call - see page 10. This is reasonably consistent with main polls from Wales.
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/british/eu-referendum/uk-european-referendum/220800266/
Wales Brexit best price 7-2.
For full disclosure I'm now level Wales Remain with the profit on Wales Brexit.
Cameron's EU shit has come knocking on our door...
If this ICM is repeated, Leave will be heading towards evens.
I wanted to send my best wishes to @JackW and @MikeK for speedy recoveries. Also great news to hear that @OldKingCole has beaten cancer.
One or two polls don't make a result. I am naturally cautious and believe that Leave just need to keep up the message discipline and activity of the last few days. They also need to get the GOTV operation in fine form for the 23rd.
In terms of maritime border management I have just written a new blogpost here. It is, I acknowledge, not very sensationalist, but I believe based on reality. www.jamesmalcolm.com/migrants-in-the-english-channel
The real fun starts on 24th June. Cameron and Osborne will clearly have to go. That means a Tory leadership election. Then the Brexit deal has to be worked out against the backdrop of what is now basically a hung Parliament. I can't see how we can go much further than the autumn without a general election. Thanks to Corbyn, that should produce a new Tory majority and also a few UKIP MPs, which will spell the end of Corbyn, thankfully. The SNP will run specifically seeking a mandate for a new independence referendum.
In short, triangulating Dave and George will take the UK out of the EU and cause the break-up of the UK. But they may also hasten the Labour party coming to its senses.
As you touch on, there is nothing stage managed about capsized dynghies but everyone sees it happening.
Events and all that......
'Cameron needs to come up with some serious fear-level shit, and fast.'
That may be difficult.
'UK would do okay outside the European Union, David Cameron says!
“Some people seem to say that really Britain couldn’t survive, couldn’t do okay outside the European Union.
I don’t think that is true,
Let’s be frank, Britain is an amazing country.
We’ve got the fifth biggest economy in the world.
We’re a top ten manufacturer.
We’ve got incredibly strong financial services.
The world wants to come and do business here.
Look at the record of inward investment.
Look at the leaders beating the path to our door to come and see what’s happening with this great country’s economy.
.... Britain could survive outside the EU. Of course it could.”
David Cameron quoted from The Independent - 9th Nov 2015
ICM is the NEW Gold Standard!
But the point is - and it pains me to say it - that he is probably finished as a credible PM post Ref. You can't offer a referendum, then promise a huge renegotiation and preface that renegotiation by stating you really don't want to leave.... and then tell the people that there will be catastrophe if we left.
It just isn't credible. And he's come across as a bullshitter.
If leaving the EU was so incredibly risky to our future then why the bloody hell did he offer a vote on leaving?
It's been very poorly done and I suspect it is game over for him and Osborne.
I actually think that many of the ideological Brexiteers would happily settle for a Brexit vote, even if that meant Corbyn became PM- which could become a distinct possibility if the Tory party descends into chaos following a Brexit vote.
After all a Corbyn Govt isn't for ever, whereas Brexit will almost certainly lead to the dismantling of the EU- a far greater prize for them I would suggest.
I was leaning towards Remain for economic reasons, but I'm close to wanting to just give 'the man' a good kicking, as it's what they all deserve.
It is not 78% !