1) a 0.5% move in cable is nothing - just daily vol
2) shifts in cable as a result of brexit polling is driven by changes in consensus expectations of interest rates. The commonly accepted the sis is that the Bank will cut rates in the event of an out vote - just to add some extra juice to the market. This is what causes the shift in relative fx. You cant read anything into it really...
Looks like the £ has been bouncing along and then taken a bit of a tumble; though not much of one. But it may indicate that something more dramatic will happen if there are a few more polls like the last two.
It's the price action that looks so bad -spike high, triple top and strong rejection at 1.47. Cable is going lower imo.
That's not St Vince going lower of course but the pound dollar exchange rate, also known as Cable sinve the trans Atlantic communication link.
I'm sceptical that there has actually been any movement in the polls. This just seems to be tacit admission that the online polls were nearer the mark from the phone pollsters.
Whats all this in comments further down about EU citizens resident here getting polling cards, or has someone forgotten Cyprus and Malta are in the commonwealth and Irish Citizens count as honorary UK citizens?
Poland were not in the Commonwealth or Ireland the last time I looked.
Thanks, found it on Guido now.
If the result is a very close Remain win it could well end up in the courts.
Well I'm going to BeLeave this poll until I see evidence that it's a "rogue"
I'm enjoying the feeling that Leave might win, but not seeing it as by any means probable.
Somebody posted that ghastly sequence of responses we've heard too often over EU things, the one that starts by saying 'Oh, you've misunderstood, that isn't what it's saying' and ends with 'It's too late now, it's all agreed'.
I'm enjoying that feeling that perhaps, this time, we might - just might - get off that inevitability treadmill.
1) a 0.5% move in cable is nothing - just daily vol
2) shifts in cable as a result of brexit polling is driven by changes in consensus expectations of interest rates. The commonly accepted the sis is that the Bank will cut rates in the event of an out vote - just to add some extra juice to the market. This is what causes the shift in relative fx. You cant read anything into it really...
Looks like the £ has been bouncing along and then taken a bit of a tumble; though not much of one. But it may indicate that something more dramatic will happen if there are a few more polls like the last two.
It's the price action that looks so bad -spike high, triple top and strong rejection at 1.47. Cable is going lower imo.
That's not St Vince going lower of course but the pound dollar exchange rate, also known as Cable sinve the trans Atlantic communication link.
After Strictly Come Dancing there was really no lower he could go.
Trump getting big swings in Cali too, and Oregon (just one poll, showing him leading!)...
Even if it is just a rogue, hopefully that will lead to everywhere being polled !
American has quite clearly gone mad. This is the same electorate (give or take) that wanted Obama in because they were sick of fighting wars in middle east. Trump plans to invade Northern Syria as I understand it.
'Hmm. I think a Leave vote would be a disaster, as noted earlier, but I also think it would quite possibly lead to a Corbyn government, as I really think the Leave Tories have underestimated the Black Wednesday style economic vortex that would follow Leave. My ideal if we did vote Leave, I think, would be general consensus that it was a horrible mistake, with Corbyn taking over and getting some genuine negotiations leading to a fresh vote.'
Adam Ludlow makes a good point – (mostly europhile) ABs high likelihood to be away due to Bank Holiday and schools half-term. Poll could well be a rogue.
I would be tempted to think that but for the fact that the online poll they conducted simultaneously produced exactly the same result as
(a) Today's phone poll
(b) The online poll they did at the same time as the last phone poll two weeks ago.
Trump getting big swings in Cali too, and Oregon (just one poll, showing him leading!)...
Even if it is just a rogue, hopefully that will lead to everywhere being polled !
American has quite clearly gone mad. This is the same electorate (give or take) that wanted Obama in because they were sick of fighting wars in middle east. Trump plans to invade Northern Syria as I understand it.
Trump getting big swings in Cali too, and Oregon (just one poll, showing him leading!)...
Even if it is just a rogue, hopefully that will lead to everywhere being polled !
American has quite clearly gone mad. This is the same electorate (give or take) that wanted Obama in because they were sick of fighting wars in middle east. Trump plans to invade Northern Syria as I understand it.
They wanted Obama because he was white-black - sorry but that is the reason. Totally racist support.
Question to Labour remainers/Tory Brexiteers: Would you swap a leave vote for Corbyn as PM?
Hmm. I think a Leave vote would be a disaster, as noted earlier, but I also think it would quite possibly lead to a Corbyn government, as I really think the Leave Tories have underestimated the Black Wednesday style economic vortex that would follow Leave. My ideal if we did vote Leave, I think, would be general consensus that it was a horrible mistake, with Corbyn taking over and getting some genuine negotiations leading to a fresh vote.
I appreciate that it's a minority view here!
There was no 'economic vortex' following Black Wednesday. It led to to a period sustained growth lasting until 2008'
Hmmm. I'm not convinced by the idea of Corbyn negotiating which seeds to plant in his allotment never mind a new trade agreement with the EU.
I'm sceptical that there has actually been any movement in the polls. This just seems to be tacit admission that the online polls were nearer the mark from the phone pollsters.
Whats all this in comments further down about EU citizens resident here getting polling cards, or has someone forgotten Cyprus and Malta are in the commonwealth and Irish Citizens count as honorary UK citizens?
Poland were not in the Commonwealth or Ireland the last time I looked.
Thanks, found it on Guido now.
If the result is a very close Remain win it could well end up in the courts.
There seem to be more than usual procedural errors compared to other elections, or maybe it's just the profile of the referendum and the eagerness to make sure these things get a public hearing.
A very close result in either direction is almost certainly going to end up in court, hopefully it ends up being 55-45 one way or the other, the only thing worse than the 'wrong' result will be no result at all.
Question to Labour remainers/Tory Brexiteers: Would you swap a leave vote for Corbyn as PM?
Hmm. I think a Leave vote would be a disaster, as noted earlier, but I also think it would quite possibly lead to a Corbyn government, as I really think the Leave Tories have underestimated the Black Wednesday style economic vortex that would follow Leave. My ideal if we did vote Leave, I think, would be general consensus that it was a horrible mistake, with Corbyn taking over and getting some genuine negotiations leading to a fresh vote.
I appreciate that it's a minority view here!
There was no 'economic vortex' following Black Wednesday. It led to to a period sustained growth lasting until 2008'
Based on cheap money - fueled by equity release on booming house prices - there wasn't the growth in manufacturing during that period - and we still haven't kicked the habit.
Question to Labour remainers/Tory Brexiteers: Would you swap a leave vote for Corbyn as PM?
Hmm. I think a Leave vote would be a disaster, as noted earlier, but I also think it would quite possibly lead to a Corbyn government, as I really think the Leave Tories have underestimated the Black Wednesday style economic vortex that would follow Leave. My ideal if we did vote Leave, I think, would be general consensus that it was a horrible mistake, with Corbyn taking over and getting some genuine negotiations leading to a fresh vote.
I appreciate that it's a minority view here!
There was no 'economic vortex' following Black Wednesday. It led to to a period sustained growth lasting until 2008'
Hmmm. I'm not convinced by the idea of Corbyn negotiating which seeds to plant in his allotment never mind a new trade agreement with the EU.
Economic growth doesn't depend on a new trade agreement with the EU.
I agree that Leave is the value at the moment, essentially because who the hell knows what the true position is? A 7% swing in a month is implausible, but that doesn't mean this poll is wrong; it might have been the previous one which was overstating the Remain position. Stephen Fisher's poll-based analysis of a few days ago had as its central forecast Remain 55%, but with a whopping plus or minus 12.5% error at the 95% confidence level. Frustrating though it may be, my take is that those large error bars reflect the truth, which is that we just don't know.
5/23-5/29 2016 General Election Clinton 47% Trump 45% NBC News/SurveyMonkey
Sanders leads Trump 52 to 40 in today's NBC
Pretty meaningless. Trump has been cosying up to Sanders because he wants his supporters to cross over when Hillary finally dispatches him. Sanders is a weak candidate in a general election.
1) a 0.5% move in cable is nothing - just daily vol
2) shifts in cable as a result of brexit polling is driven by changes in consensus expectations of interest rates. The commonly accepted the sis is that the Bank will cut rates in the event of an out vote - just to add some extra juice to the market. This is what causes the shift in relative fx. You cant read anything into it really...
Looks like the £ has been bouncing along and then taken a bit of a tumble; though not much of one. But it may indicate that something more dramatic will happen if there are a few more polls like the last two.
Yes, but see point 2. It's to do with rate expectations not "chaos" or somesuch hyperbole
I don't buy the rate expectations line, I'm afraid. They are already about as low as they can go. A further cut will make no difference to anything.
Just passed an elderly gent with a Vote Leave badge in Piccadilly
Manchester or London?
Thirty years ago when I was standing on a station in the South London suburbs a chap came running down the ramp and started hectoring the platform attendant who was talking to another passenger as to whether the train in the platform was going to Victoria. The platform attendant refused to be interrupted and the guy got really abusive so the guy got on and door shut and loco took the train away.
After the train left the platform attendent shrugged his shoulders and said to two or three people nearby who had witnessed the incident. He didn't ask which Victoria that train is going to, that ones going to Manchester Victoria, next stop Reading
5/23-5/29 2016 General Election Clinton 47% Trump 45% NBC News/SurveyMonkey
Sanders leads Trump 52 to 40 in today's NBC
Pretty meaningless. Trump has been cosying up to Sanders because he wants his supporters to cross over when Hillary finally dispatches him. Sanders is a weak candidate in a general election.
I am not so sure, Sanders populist message against Wall Street and billionaires is more in tune with the times than Hillary's establishment pitch and he would blunt Trump's outsider appeal It would be a race of who Americans hate more, Wall Street and billionaires or Mexican migrants, Muslims and China
NBC has Clinton up 2% nationally so NJ still more Democratic than the nation, another Boston Herald poll out has New Hampshire tied 44% to 44% so it is leaning more to its formerly GOP roots
I don't buy the rate expectations line, I'm afraid. They are already about as low as they can go. A further cut will make no difference to anything.
They could resume QE, though. The dilemma would be whether that would drive sterling still lower; modest depreciation is fine, but an unstable exchange rate is not, especially when you have a humongous current-account deficit to finance and when investors will be fleeing to safety.
Just passed an elderly gent with a Vote Leave badge in Piccadilly
Manchester or London?
Thirty years ago when I was standing on a station in the South London suburbs a chap came running down the ramp and started hectoring the platform attendant who was talking to another passenger as to whether the train in the platform was going to Victoria. The platform attendant refused to be interrupted and the guy got really abusive so the guy got on and door shut and loco took the train away.
After the train left the platform attendent shrugged his shoulders and said to two or three people nearby who had witnessed the incident. He didn't ask which Victoria that train is going to, that ones going to Manchester Victoria, next stop Reading
Didn't they rename Liverpool St station as "London Liverpool St" a few years back, after lots of confused tourists at Stansted Airport were presented with one train to Liverpool St and another opposite to Liverpool Lime St?
The FT reported on its front page today that Hedge Funds and Investments banks were investing in referendum exit polls during June 23rd so as to know as the day goes by how to take positions in the pound sterling and stock market.
The cost of a continuous exit poll on the day is said to be £500,000.
Note: There is a £ sign and a $ sign on a standard QWERTY keyboard but no Euro sign.
Trump getting big swings in Cali too, and Oregon (just one poll, showing him leading!)...
Even if it is just a rogue, hopefully that will lead to everywhere being polled !
American has quite clearly gone mad. This is the same electorate (give or take) that wanted Obama in because they were sick of fighting wars in middle east. Trump plans to invade Northern Syria as I understand it.
They wanted Obama because he was white-black - sorry but that is the reason. Totally racist support.
Perhaps they want Trump because he is whiter than white.
Just passed an elderly gent with a Vote Leave badge in Piccadilly
Manchester or London?
Thirty years ago when I was standing on a station in the South London suburbs a chap came running down the ramp and started hectoring the platform attendant who was talking to another passenger as to whether the train in the platform was going to Victoria. The platform attendant refused to be interrupted and the guy got really abusive so the guy got on and door shut and loco took the train away.
After the train left the platform attendent shrugged his shoulders and said to two or three people nearby who had witnessed the incident. He didn't ask which Victoria that train is going to, that ones going to Manchester Victoria, next stop Reading
Didn't they rename Liverpool St station as "London Liverpool St" a few years back, after lots of confused tourists at Stansted Airport were presented with one train to Liverpool St and another opposite to Liverpool Lime St?
All the mainline termini are prefixed with "London" - except for London Bridge, which already has "London" in its name
Loughborough Junction is near Brixton, not Loughborough!
The FT reported on its front page today that Hedge Funds and Investments banks were investing in referendum exit polls during June 23rd so as to know as the day goes by how to take positions in the pound sterling and stock market.
The cost of a continuous exit poll on the day is said to be £500,000.
Note: There is a £ sign and a $ sign on a standard QWERTY keyboard but no Euro sign.
Does that mean that the exit poll will be the Pound vs Dollar market from about 2pm onwards on the 23rd?
Seems to have a bit of a whiff of insider trading to me.
NBC has Clinton up 2% nationally so NJ still more Democratic than the nation, another Boston Herald poll out has New Hampshire tied 44% to 44% so it is leaning more to its formerly GOP roots
The FT reported on its front page today that Hedge Funds and Investments banks were investing in referendum exit polls during June 23rd so as to know as the day goes by how to take positions in the pound sterling and stock market.
The cost of a continuous exit poll on the day is said to be £500,000.
Note: There is a £ sign and a $ sign on a standard QWERTY keyboard but no Euro sign.
Delighted obviously at today's polling news, it certainly looks now as though the online polls have been closer to the 'truth' all along - when I saw the breakdown of over 60's in favour of remain on the phone polls, it was that and Geroge Osborne scheduled to do an interview with Andrew Neil that firmly pushed me in favour of the online polling.......although I have to say I was nervous about coming to the same conclusion in my head as to where my heart obviously lies.....and I still have an innate caution about things. If, and its a big if, the polls are showing a narrow lead for leave on the eve of polling, I still think there is a critical soft underbelly in the leave vote. I still think the leave campaign has to neutralise the economy question, whilst cementing its large lead on the immigration question in order to be as sure as one can be of winning on the day. And there are certainly enough wildcard events that could occur over the next 23 days that could upset the applecart either way to say the least.
Here's a dilemma for Europhobes. A court opinion that employers may ban the wearing of headscarves by Muslim women - emanating from the CJEU's Advocate-General:
The FT reported on its front page today that Hedge Funds and Investments banks were investing in referendum exit polls during June 23rd so as to know as the day goes by how to take positions in the pound sterling and stock market.
The cost of a continuous exit poll on the day is said to be £500,000.
Note: There is a £ sign and a $ sign on a standard QWERTY keyboard but no Euro sign.
Just passed an elderly gent with a Vote Leave badge in Piccadilly
Manchester or London?
Thirty years ago when I was standing on a station in the South London suburbs a chap came running down the ramp and started hectoring the platform attendant who was talking to another passenger as to whether the train in the platform was going to Victoria. The platform attendant refused to be interrupted and the guy got really abusive so the guy got on and door shut and loco took the train away.
After the train left the platform attendent shrugged his shoulders and said to two or three people nearby who had witnessed the incident. He didn't ask which Victoria that train is going to, that ones going to Manchester Victoria, next stop Reading
Didn't they rename Liverpool St station as "London Liverpool St" a few years back, after lots of confused tourists at Stansted Airport were presented with one train to Liverpool St and another opposite to Liverpool Lime St?
All the mainline termini are prefixed with "London" - except for London Bridge, which already has "London" in its name
Loughborough Junction is near Brixton, not Loughborough!
I drove down the M40 through the north part of Oxfordshire yesterday and didn't see these posters (hopefully I was concentrating on the road sufficiently!):
1) a 0.5% move in cable is nothing - just daily vol
2) shifts in cable as a result of brexit polling is driven by changes in consensus expectations of interest rates. The commonly accepted the sis is that the Bank will cut rates in the event of an out vote - just to add some extra juice to the market. This is what causes the shift in relative fx. You cant read anything into it really...
Looks like the £ has been bouncing along and then taken a bit of a tumble; though not much of one. But it may indicate that something more dramatic will happen if there are a few more polls like the last two.
Yes, but see point 2. It's to do with rate expectations not "chaos" or somesuch hyperbole
I don't buy the rate expectations line, I'm afraid. They are already about as low as they can go. A further cut will make no difference to anything.
Not to economic performance, but even if it is only a delay to UK rates rising, that still leads to a weaker pound given the rates environment in the states right now
I drove down the M40 through the north part of Oxfordshire yesterday and didn't see these posters (hopefully I was concentrating on the road sufficiently!):
Just passed an elderly gent with a Vote Leave badge in Piccadilly
Manchester or London?
Thirty years ago when I was standing on a station in the South London suburbs a chap came running down the ramp and started hectoring the platform attendant who was talking to another passenger as to whether the train in the platform was going to Victoria. The platform attendant refused to be interrupted and the guy got really abusive so the guy got on and door shut and loco took the train away.
After the train left the platform attendent shrugged his shoulders and said to two or three people nearby who had witnessed the incident. He didn't ask which Victoria that train is going to, that ones going to Manchester Victoria, next stop Reading
Didn't they rename Liverpool St station as "London Liverpool St" a few years back, after lots of confused tourists at Stansted Airport were presented with one train to Liverpool St and another opposite to Liverpool Lime St?
All the mainline termini are prefixed with "London" - except for London Bridge, which already has "London" in its name
Loughborough Junction is near Brixton, not Loughborough!
I used to get the train in to the LSE from there in student days when it was a straight walk downhill from Ferndene Road in Herne Hill.....but it only operated in the morning and evening rush hour....which wasn't necessarily great as a student!
The FT reported on its front page today that Hedge Funds and Investments banks were investing in referendum exit polls during June 23rd so as to know as the day goes by how to take positions in the pound sterling and stock market.
The cost of a continuous exit poll on the day is said to be £500,000.
Note: There is a £ sign and a $ sign on a standard QWERTY keyboard but no Euro sign.
5/23-5/29 2016 General Election Clinton 47% Trump 45% NBC News/SurveyMonkey
Sanders leads Trump 52 to 40 in today's NBC
Pretty meaningless. Trump has been cosying up to Sanders because he wants his supporters to cross over when Hillary finally dispatches him. Sanders is a weak candidate in a general election.
I am not so sure, Sanders populist message against Wall Street and billionaires is more in tune with the times than Hillary's establishment pitch and he would blunt Trump's outsider appeal It would be a race of who Americans hate more, Wall Street and billionaires or Mexican migrants, Muslims and China
Sanders is the wrong kind of outsider to carry swing voters. Too many of his activities can be portrayed as un-American - his sympathy for the Soviet Union, support for the Sandinistas etc.
I don't buy the rate expectations line, I'm afraid. They are already about as low as they can go. A further cut will make no difference to anything.
They could resume QE, though. The dilemma would be whether that would drive sterling still lower; modest depreciation is fine, but an unstable exchange rate is not, especially when you have a humongous current-account deficit to finance and when investors will be fleeing to safety.
Yep, I guess so.
I see some folk down thread are trumpeting a Brexit vote as a possible precursor to the break-up of the EU as a whole. I am not sure they appreciate just how much financial and economic carnage that would cause, or how long-lasting it would be. Why would anyone actively want to inflict that level of misery on so many people?
Not so bravo to the Independent, for the key thing missing is the central address of the nexus of where this criminal activity all leads to in London - you've guessed it - 788 790 Finchley Road.
So Mr Cameron, if Nigeria and Afghanistan are 'fantastically corrupt' countries, what does that make the UK on that scale of language? Insanely fantastically corrupt?
Mr. Observer, if someone thinks the EU is destined to collapse, the sooner it happens the better. The longer it takes, the more entangled political structures are, and the greater the pain of disentangling them.
I don't want the EU to have a disorderly disintegration, but given its inability to reform and become just a trade bloc, a smooth transition to a trade agreement with those who wish to be politically integrated going (separately) down that road would be a very good thing.
I can't remember (was a while ago and a lot was said at the time), but did you make a similar post about the possibility of Scottish independence? Some people are taking this vote more seriously than the break-up of the UK, which surprises me.
I see some folk down thread are trumpeting a Brexit vote as a possible precursor to the break-up of the EU as a whole. I am not sure they appreciate just how much financial and economic carnage that would cause, or how long-lasting it would be. Why would anyone actively want to inflict that level of misery on so many people?
It's a most curious psychological and political phenomenon. It's tantamount to actively wanting a rerun of the 2008/9 crash.
The FT reported on its front page today that Hedge Funds and Investments banks were investing in referendum exit polls during June 23rd so as to know as the day goes by how to take positions in the pound sterling and stock market.
The cost of a continuous exit poll on the day is said to be £500,000.
Note: There is a £ sign and a $ sign on a standard QWERTY keyboard but no Euro sign.
Does that mean that the exit poll will be the Pound vs Dollar market from about 2pm onwards on the 23rd?
Seems to have a bit of a whiff of insider trading to me.
Under election law exit polls can be carried out on the day but not published. So those carrying out private polls will have better information than others and hence a competitive edge in trading, especially on the US market which is open later of course.
Question to Labour remainers/Tory Brexiteers: Would you swap a leave vote for Corbyn as PM?
Hmm. I think a Leave vote would be a disaster, as noted earlier, but I also think it would quite possibly lead to a Corbyn government, as I really think the Leave Tories have underestimated the Black Wednesday style economic vortex that would follow Leave. My ideal if we did vote Leave, I think, would be general consensus that it was a horrible mistake, with Corbyn taking over and getting some genuine negotiations leading to a fresh vote.
I appreciate that it's a minority view here!
There was no 'economic vortex' following Black Wednesday. It led to to a period sustained growth lasting until 2008'
We were still an EU member state after Black Wednesday.
The UK leaving the EU will have major repercussions across Europe and beyond. It is hard to see the markets reacting positively. In the very best scenario what we will have is a period of significant uncertainty as the Tories elect a new leader and the Brexit deal is done. With confidence already fragile in China, Europe and even the US that is not going to be helpful, to say the least. And that is a best case scenario.
I see some folk down thread are trumpeting a Brexit vote as a possible precursor to the break-up of the EU as a whole. I am not sure they appreciate just how much financial and economic carnage that would cause, or how long-lasting it would be. Why would anyone actively want to inflict that level of misery on so many people?
It's a most curious psychological and political phenomenon. It's tantamount to actively wanting a rerun of the 2008/9 crash.
5/23-5/29 2016 General Election Clinton 47% Trump 45% NBC News/SurveyMonkey
Sanders leads Trump 52 to 40 in today's NBC
Pretty meaningless. Trump has been cosying up to Sanders because he wants his supporters to cross over when Hillary finally dispatches him. Sanders is a weak candidate in a general election.
I am not so sure, Sanders populist message against Wall Street and billionaires is more in tune with the times than Hillary's establishment pitch and he would blunt Trump's outsider appeal It would be a race of who Americans hate more, Wall Street and billionaires or Mexican migrants, Muslims and China
Sanders is the wrong kind of outsider to carry swing voters. Too many of his activities can be portrayed as un-American - his sympathy for the Soviet Union, support for the Sandinistas etc.
Well given Trump's praise for Putin he can hardly play the anti Russian card against Sanders and Sanders would also have the Hispanic vote
Mr. Observer, if someone thinks the EU is destined to collapse, the sooner it happens the better. The longer it takes, the more entangled political structures are, and the greater the pain of disentangling them.
I don't want the EU to have a disorderly disintegration, but given its inability to reform and become just a trade bloc, a smooth transition to a trade agreement with those who wish to be politically integrated going (separately) down that road would be a very good thing.
I can't remember (was a while ago and a lot was said at the time), but did you make a similar post about the possibility of Scottish independence? Some people are taking this vote more seriously than the break-up of the UK, which surprises me.
Yes I dont get why leaving a trade block is worse than the disintegration of the country. I guess you have to live in the South East to get it.
Mr. Observer, if someone thinks the EU is destined to collapse, the sooner it happens the better. The longer it takes, the more entangled political structures are, and the greater the pain of disentangling them.
I don't want the EU to have a disorderly disintegration, but given its inability to reform and become just a trade bloc, a smooth transition to a trade agreement with those who wish to be politically integrated going (separately) down that road would be a very good thing.
I can't remember (was a while ago and a lot was said at the time), but did you make a similar post about the possibility of Scottish independence? Some people are taking this vote more seriously than the break-up of the UK, which surprises me.
Globally, Brexit would be a far bigger deal than Scotland becoming independent.
Just passed an elderly gent with a Vote Leave badge in Piccadilly
Manchester or London?
Thirty years ago when I was standing on a station in the South London suburbs a chap came running down the ramp and started hectoring the platform attendant who was talking to another passenger as to whether the train in the platform was going to Victoria. The platform attendant refused to be interrupted and the guy got really abusive so the guy got on and door shut and loco took the train away.
After the train left the platform attendent shrugged his shoulders and said to two or three people nearby who had witnessed the incident. He didn't ask which Victoria that train is going to, that ones going to Manchester Victoria, next stop Reading
Didn't they rename Liverpool St station as "London Liverpool St" a few years back, after lots of confused tourists at Stansted Airport were presented with one train to Liverpool St and another opposite to Liverpool Lime St?
All the mainline termini are prefixed with "London" - except for London Bridge, which already has "London" in its name
Loughborough Junction is near Brixton, not Loughborough!
and you can get a train to both from St Pancras.
Either side of Stoke are stations called Longport and Longton. I bet that causes some confusion!
Question to Labour remainers/Tory Brexiteers: Would you swap a leave vote for Corbyn as PM?
Hmm. I think a Leave vote would be a disaster, as noted earlier, but I also think it would quite possibly lead to a Corbyn government, as I really think the Leave Tories have underestimated the Black Wednesday style economic vortex that would follow Leave. My ideal if we did vote Leave, I think, would be general consensus that it was a horrible mistake, with Corbyn taking over and getting some genuine negotiations leading to a fresh vote.
I appreciate that it's a minority view here!
Thanks for the response. I agree that a Leave vote could make a Corbyn government more likely.
I think the economic risks of Brexit could be managed- most obviously by not changing our relationship with the EU very much (at least initially). That's not to say I have much confidence in the Conservatives managing this.
I see some folk down thread are trumpeting a Brexit vote as a possible precursor to the break-up of the EU as a whole. I am not sure they appreciate just how much financial and economic carnage that would cause, or how long-lasting it would be. Why would anyone actively want to inflict that level of misery on so many people?
It's a most curious psychological and political phenomenon. It's tantamount to actively wanting a rerun of the 2008/9 crash.
As the EU is working so well for the likes of Greece, they have never known such prosperity!
I drove down the M40 through the north part of Oxfordshire yesterday and didn't see these posters (hopefully I was concentrating on the road sufficiently!):
Just passed an elderly gent with a Vote Leave badge in Piccadilly
Manchester or London?
Thirty years ago when I was standing on a station in the South London suburbs a chap came running down the ramp and started hectoring the platform attendant who was talking to another passenger as to whether the train in the platform was going to Victoria. The platform attendant refused to be interrupted and the guy got really abusive so the guy got on and door shut and loco took the train away.
After the train left the platform attendent shrugged his shoulders and said to two or three people nearby who had witnessed the incident. He didn't ask which Victoria that train is going to, that ones going to Manchester Victoria, next stop Reading
Didn't they rename Liverpool St station as "London Liverpool St" a few years back, after lots of confused tourists at Stansted Airport were presented with one train to Liverpool St and another opposite to Liverpool Lime St?
All the mainline termini are prefixed with "London" - except for London Bridge, which already has "London" in its name
Loughborough Junction is near Brixton, not Loughborough!
I used to get the train in to the LSE from there in student days when it was a straight walk downhill from Ferndene Road in Herne Hill.....but it only operated in the morning and evening rush hour....which wasn't necessarily great as a student!
I don't buy the rate expectations line, I'm afraid. They are already about as low as they can go. A further cut will make no difference to anything.
They could resume QE, though. The dilemma would be whether that would drive sterling still lower; modest depreciation is fine, but an unstable exchange rate is not, especially when you have a humongous current-account deficit to finance and when investors will be fleeing to safety.
That's going to happen irrespective of what happens in 23 days time. I was ridiculed on here when I kept banging on about sterling going to fall below parity against the US dollar in time......as a country you get away with running a 7% of GDP current account deficit for a while.....but sooner or later capital will lose confidence in the country concerned - around 8% has historically been the danger level for emerging market countries. Its unprecedented for a developed country to have such an enormous imbalance. Sterling has already weakened markedly from the $1.7185 level reached in mid-2014. Its technical pattern is very much setting up for a collapse.....I'm glad that more people can see the writing on the wall now. So much for Mr Osborne and his much trumpeted 'rebalancing of the economy'! I haven't heard that phrase from him for a while now - I do wonder why? Neither have I heard much from him about his promise to wipe out the annual budget deficit by the end of the last parliament. Would anyone care to remind me how that one is going too?
For keyboard experts, how can I produce with a couple of keystrokes:
1) o with an umlaut? 2) u with an umlaut? 3) o with a double umlaut? 4) u with a double umlaut?
This would be hugely helpful for me when typing Hungarian words.
The first two are easy (assuming you mean ö and ü): 1) alt 0214 (0246 lower case) 2) alt 0220 (0252 lower case)
using the numbers on the numeric pad. If you are using mac you hold down option, press "u" then release both those keys and press the letter you want umlauted.
Just passed an elderly gent with a Vote Leave badge in Piccadilly
Manchester or London?
Thirty years ago when I was standing on a station in the South London suburbs a chap came running down the ramp and started hectoring the platform attendant who was talking to another passenger as to whether the train in the platform was going to Victoria. The platform attendant refused to be interrupted and the guy got really abusive so the guy got on and door shut and loco took the train away.
After the train left the platform attendent shrugged his shoulders and said to two or three people nearby who had witnessed the incident. He didn't ask which Victoria that train is going to, that ones going to Manchester Victoria, next stop Reading
Didn't they rename Liverpool St station as "London Liverpool St" a few years back, after lots of confused tourists at Stansted Airport were presented with one train to Liverpool St and another opposite to Liverpool Lime St?
All the mainline termini are prefixed with "London" - except for London Bridge, which already has "London" in its name
Loughborough Junction is near Brixton, not Loughborough!
I used to get the train in to the LSE from there in student days when it was a straight walk downhill from Ferndene Road in Herne Hill.....but it only operated in the morning and evening rush hour....which wasn't necessarily great as a student!
Oh now they are every half hour during the day.
I was talking from nearly 20 years ago now! You'll have to forgive me for being out of date!
It was a very run down station in those days, from what I recall there were no permanent members of staff working there.....and it showed!
Mr. Observer, if someone thinks the EU is destined to collapse, the sooner it happens the better. The longer it takes, the more entangled political structures are, and the greater the pain of disentangling them.
I don't want the EU to have a disorderly disintegration, but given its inability to reform and become just a trade bloc, a smooth transition to a trade agreement with those who wish to be politically integrated going (separately) down that road would be a very good thing.
I can't remember (was a while ago and a lot was said at the time), but did you make a similar post about the possibility of Scottish independence? Some people are taking this vote more seriously than the break-up of the UK, which surprises me.
Globally, Brexit would be a far bigger deal than Scotland becoming independent.
How ? Most of the economics is just scaremongering fact is no-one knows.
There will be a shock probably a mild one on Brexit but thereafter all bets are off. Our CoE has caused as much of shock on his own and we are still here.
The FT reported on its front page today that Hedge Funds and Investments banks were investing in referendum exit polls during June 23rd so as to know as the day goes by how to take positions in the pound sterling and stock market.
The cost of a continuous exit poll on the day is said to be £500,000.
Note: There is a £ sign and a $ sign on a standard QWERTY keyboard but no Euro sign.
Does that mean that the exit poll will be the Pound vs Dollar market from about 2pm onwards on the 23rd?
Seems to have a bit of a whiff of insider trading to me.
Under election law exit polls can be carried out on the day but not published. So those carrying out private polls will have better information than others and hence a competitive edge in trading, especially on the US market which is open later of course.
Could using the information to make large currency trading investments or other bets on a large enough scale to distort the published market before 10pm be construed as publishing by a court?
Mr. Observer, if someone thinks the EU is destined to collapse, the sooner it happens the better. The longer it takes, the more entangled political structures are, and the greater the pain of disentangling them.
I don't want the EU to have a disorderly disintegration, but given its inability to reform and become just a trade bloc, a smooth transition to a trade agreement with those who wish to be politically integrated going (separately) down that road would be a very good thing.
I can't remember (was a while ago and a lot was said at the time), but did you make a similar post about the possibility of Scottish independence? Some people are taking this vote more seriously than the break-up of the UK, which surprises me.
Yes I dont get why leaving a trade block is worse than the disintegration of the country. I guess you have to live in the South East to get it.
Surely the point is that there was nothing people outside Scotland could do about the Independence vote?
In this referendum, we have a vote.
If all you can do is accept what other people decide, there is a limit to how engaged you can feel.
Anecdote alert from the (delayed) 18:03 Victoria service.
Eavesdropping first Brexit discussion. Two suited (no tie) middle-aged, middle-class conservative, possibly Conservative commuters.
Totally ambivalent about Brexit, but assuming Remain will win. Happy about the idea of PM Boris. Could go either way, but should have been in the bag for Remain.
So Nicola and Alex are on course to lose back to back referendums within 9 months ?
Heart of stone..
Remain wins in Scotland & loses in rUK? Result.
Unlikely. Once enough Scottish families have had named visitors from the sociap services turning up and interrogating them as to whether they give their kids enough pocket money tbe SNP will be toast
I drove down the M40 through the north part of Oxfordshire yesterday and didn't see these posters (hopefully I was concentrating on the road sufficiently!):
Mr. Observer, if someone thinks the EU is destined to collapse, the sooner it happens the better. The longer it takes, the more entangled political structures are, and the greater the pain of disentangling them.
I don't want the EU to have a disorderly disintegration, but given its inability to reform and become just a trade bloc, a smooth transition to a trade agreement with those who wish to be politically integrated going (separately) down that road would be a very good thing.
I can't remember (was a while ago and a lot was said at the time), but did you make a similar post about the possibility of Scottish independence? Some people are taking this vote more seriously than the break-up of the UK, which surprises me.
Yes I dont get why leaving a trade block is worse than the disintegration of the country. I guess you have to live in the South East to get it.
Surely the point is that there was nothing people outside Scotland could do about the Independence vote?
In this referendum, we have a vote.
If all you can do is accept what other people decide, there is a limit to how engaged you can feel.
That's certainly true.
However I have been bemused by comments from remainers on the board that out is a bigger issue than Indyref.
Personally I don't see it that way, but as I have commented before this ref is probably more values driven which is why Remain and Leave enthusiasts just can't understand where the other side is coming from.
Mr. Observer, if someone thinks the EU is destined to collapse, the sooner it happens the better. The longer it takes, the more entangled political structures are, and the greater the pain of disentangling them.
I don't want the EU to have a disorderly disintegration, but given its inability to reform and become just a trade bloc, a smooth transition to a trade agreement with those who wish to be politically integrated going (separately) down that road would be a very good thing.
I can't remember (was a while ago and a lot was said at the time), but did you make a similar post about the possibility of Scottish independence? Some people are taking this vote more seriously than the break-up of the UK, which surprises me.
Globally, Brexit would be a far bigger deal than Scotland becoming independent.
How ? Most of the economics is just scaremongering fact is no-one knows.
There will be a shock probably a mild one on Brexit but thereafter all bets are off. Our CoE has caused as much of shock on his own and we are still here.
The dissolution of the Uk is a bigger issue.
It's true, no-one does know, I am stating an opinion. What I see out there is a very fragile recovery in Europe and very jittery markets in Asia. The US is also in an election year and so not stable. I think there is a considerable danger that given the UK's current integration into the single market, investors could react very badly to us pulling out. At a minimum, Brexit means several years of uncertainty. Hopefully, though, I am wrong and you are right.
Just passed an elderly gent with a Vote Leave badge in Piccadilly
Manchester or London?
Thirty years ago when I was standing on a station in the South London suburbs a chap came running down the ramp and started hectoring the platform attendant who was talking to another passenger as to whether the train in the platform was going to Victoria. The platform attendant refused to be interrupted and the guy got really abusive so the guy got on and door shut and loco took the train away.
After the train left the platform attendent shrugged his shoulders and said to two or three people nearby who had witnessed the incident. He didn't ask which Victoria that train is going to, that ones going to Manchester Victoria, next stop Reading
Didn't they rename Liverpool St station as "London Liverpool St" a few years back, after lots of confused tourists at Stansted Airport were presented with one train to Liverpool St and another opposite to Liverpool Lime St?
All the mainline termini are prefixed with "London" - except for London Bridge, which already has "London" in its name
Loughborough Junction is near Brixton, not Loughborough!
I used to get the train in to the LSE from there in student days when it was a straight walk downhill from Ferndene Road in Herne Hill.....but it only operated in the morning and evening rush hour....which wasn't necessarily great as a student!
Oh now they are every half hour during the day.
I was talking from nearly 20 years ago now! You'll have to forgive me for being out of date!
It was a very run down station in those days, from what I recall there were no permanent members of staff working there.....and it showed!
20 years ago I had much less grand ambitions, contenting myself with just doing all lines within Zones 1 to 4 of the London Travelcard area!
Are the likes of Farage, Johnson, and Duncan Smith on course to destroy the visionary project of Monet, Schumann and De Gasperi? Truly the Vandals at the gate.
I drove down the M40 through the north part of Oxfordshire yesterday and didn't see these posters (hopefully I was concentrating on the road sufficiently!):
For keyboard experts, how can I produce with a couple of keystrokes:
1) o with an umlaut? 2) u with an umlaut? 3) o with a double umlaut? 4) u with a double umlaut?
This would be hugely helpful for me when typing Hungarian words.
If you're using a PC running Windows, you can use use the Microsoft Keyboard Layout Creator to install your own keyboard layout. Since I have to type quite a bit of German on a UK keyboard, I've made my own keyboard layout that uses Alt Gr plus the relevant key to get ä, ö, ü and ß. Much easier than typing hex codes each time!
I see some folk down thread are trumpeting a Brexit vote as a possible precursor to the break-up of the EU as a whole. I am not sure they appreciate just how much financial and economic carnage that would cause, or how long-lasting it would be. Why would anyone actively want to inflict that level of misery on so many people?
It's a most curious psychological and political phenomenon. It's tantamount to actively wanting a rerun of the 2008/9 crash.
Nobody in their right minds wants to see the chaos starting to unfold over the next few years. But so many historical cycles are coming to a head, that all point to this time, if you look at Martin Armstrong's work, he has been forecasting between now and 2020 as the time when so much of what we take for granted about the current state of the world would fall apart from all the way back in 1985.
Those of us who have studied our history have all stated that the Euro will eventually collapse - no currency area without a consolidated debt market consistent with that area has withstood the test of time. That's not opinion, that's a fact. And I'm not about to start betting that 6,000 years of history with that rule is going to be overturned by the experience of the Euro. Technology may change over time, human nature has not. The leaders of the EU and all those acolytes and followers have shown that they are ignorant of that basic historical fact. And if they couldn't consolidate the eurozone debt at the time of the Euro launch in 1999 when confidence in the political class was so much higher than today, then they haven't got a hope in hell now.
Which is why despite how strongly I feel about the EU, I don't think the result either way will make all that much difference when we come to look back on the next 4 years in 2020. The Euro will collapse and the miserable EU project with it at some point - I personally think 2018. It would help from a strictly limited UK standpoint if we vote leave in 23 days time but the EU goose is cooked. Look at the Austrian presidential election, 60% youth unemployment and the unresolved issues on the Euro periphery, the rise of nationalism across the EU - its like the Ottoman empire circa 1916 - its just waiting for a few final knockout blows to consign the 'project' to the dustbin of history.
I see some folk down thread are trumpeting a Brexit vote as a possible precursor to the break-up of the EU as a whole. I am not sure they appreciate just how much financial and economic carnage that would cause, or how long-lasting it would be. Why would anyone actively want to inflict that level of misery on so many people?
It's a most curious psychological and political phenomenon. It's tantamount to actively wanting a rerun of the 2008/9 crash.
Or since the Leavers believe with some justification that the EU is the cause of much economic malaise and a drag on growth, leaving would be akin to removing Brown and changing tack in advance of 2008.
The USA works / worked (although there is a growing separatist movement in places like Vermont and Texas that will eventually lead to its breakup) because there was pretty much one language and one culture, and everyone thinks of themselves as American, whatever that might mean to them. Nobody in the EU thinks of themselves first and foremost as a European Unionist for want of better parlance. Without one language and one culture, the whole idea of the European Union simply is not a 'fit' for the reality of the European people. Communism failed in 1989 because it's 'elite' were so far removed from the wider population. I would postulate that the EU 'elite' is in a similar position today with regard to its wider population that it serves so dismally.
Comments
That's not St Vince going lower of course but the pound dollar exchange rate, also known as Cable sinve the trans Atlantic communication link.
If the result is a very close Remain win it could well end up in the courts.
Somebody posted that ghastly sequence of responses we've heard too often over EU things, the one that starts by saying 'Oh, you've misunderstood, that isn't what it's saying' and ends with 'It's too late now, it's all agreed'.
I'm enjoying that feeling that perhaps, this time, we might - just might - get off that inevitability treadmill.
Heart of stone..
It could be the worst possible result. Remain by a margin smaller than the number of EU citizens who should not have had the vote.
'Hmm. I think a Leave vote would be a disaster, as noted earlier, but I also think it would quite possibly lead to a Corbyn government, as I really think the Leave Tories have underestimated the Black Wednesday style economic vortex that would follow Leave. My ideal if we did vote Leave, I think, would be general consensus that it was a horrible mistake, with Corbyn taking over and getting some genuine negotiations leading to a fresh vote.'
ROFL
(a) Today's phone poll
(b) The online poll they did at the same time as the last phone poll two weeks ago.
A very close result in either direction is almost certainly going to end up in court, hopefully it ends up being 55-45 one way or the other, the only thing worse than the 'wrong' result will be no result at all.
Presumably the curve is in a Normal ditribution and the 67% CI is 48.75% to 61.25%
Lets hope its not the latter as it I fear it would give them an excuse to cancel the referendum and hold it at a later date more favourable to them.
After the train left the platform attendent shrugged his shoulders and said to two or three people nearby who had witnessed the incident. He didn't ask which Victoria that train is going to, that ones going to Manchester Victoria, next stop Reading
It would be a race of who Americans hate more, Wall Street and billionaires or Mexican migrants, Muslims and China
https://twitter.com/BattleOfJutland
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3617090/Labour-councillor-called-Israel-terrorist-state-married-two-women-time-appointed-equality-chief-Birmingham.html
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/2016-predictions-117554
Next we'll be getting a poll telling us MD is neck and neck. Sheesh
The cost of a continuous exit poll on the day is said to be £500,000.
Note: There is a £ sign and a $ sign on a standard QWERTY keyboard but no Euro sign.
Perhaps they want Trump because he is whiter than white.
Loughborough Junction is near Brixton, not Loughborough!
Seems to have a bit of a whiff of insider trading to me.
http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2016/may/headscarf-ruling-changes-expectations-in-discrimination-cases-says-expert/
At the same time the German DAX fell the same amount and the French CAC slightly less.
So were ARE all in it together, IN or OUT.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/anti-eu-billboards-reading-halt-ze-german-advance-placed-on-m40-a7055186.html
Were they put up as a smear by the remain campaign? Or ridiculously naive leave supporters?
Has anyone driven along there today and seen if these posters are still up?
The € is not a single key but multiple keys.
1) o with an umlaut?
2) u with an umlaut?
3) o with a double umlaut?
4) u with a double umlaut?
This would be hugely helpful for me when typing Hungarian words.
I see some folk down thread are trumpeting a Brexit vote as a possible precursor to the break-up of the EU as a whole. I am not sure they appreciate just how much financial and economic carnage that would cause, or how long-lasting it would be. Why would anyone actively want to inflict that level of misery on so many people?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/roberto-saviano-britain-corrupt-mafia-hay-festival-a7054851.html
Not so bravo to the Independent, for the key thing missing is the central address of the nexus of where this criminal activity all leads to in London - you've guessed it - 788 790 Finchley Road.
So Mr Cameron, if Nigeria and Afghanistan are 'fantastically corrupt' countries, what does that make the UK on that scale of language? Insanely fantastically corrupt?
24 of the 27 EU nations run a trade surplus with the UK.
I don't want the EU to have a disorderly disintegration, but given its inability to reform and become just a trade bloc, a smooth transition to a trade agreement with those who wish to be politically integrated going (separately) down that road would be a very good thing.
I can't remember (was a while ago and a lot was said at the time), but did you make a similar post about the possibility of Scottish independence? Some people are taking this vote more seriously than the break-up of the UK, which surprises me.
The UK leaving the EU will have major repercussions across Europe and beyond. It is hard to see the markets reacting positively. In the very best scenario what we will have is a period of significant uncertainty as the Tories elect a new leader and the Brexit deal is done. With confidence already fragile in China, Europe and even the US that is not going to be helpful, to say the least. And that is a best case scenario.
I think the economic risks of Brexit could be managed- most obviously by not changing our relationship with the EU very much (at least initially). That's not to say I have much confidence in the Conservatives managing this.
1) alt 0214 (0246 lower case)
2) alt 0220 (0252 lower case)
using the numbers on the numeric pad. If you are using mac you hold down option, press "u" then release both those keys and press the letter you want umlauted.
Not sure what a double umlaut is?
It was a very run down station in those days, from what I recall there were no permanent members of staff working there.....and it showed!
Btw your counting is on a par with your barely remembered knowledge of Glasgow; 20 months since the Indy referendum.
There will be a shock probably a mild one on Brexit but thereafter all bets are off. Our CoE has caused as much of shock on his own and we are still here.
The dissolution of the Uk is a bigger issue.
Could using the information to make large currency trading investments or other bets on a large enough scale to distort the published market before 10pm be construed as publishing by a court?
How about letteres with acute, grave and circumflex accents, although I think the French are thinking of dropping the circumflex accent.
In this referendum, we have a vote.
If all you can do is accept what other people decide, there is a limit to how engaged you can feel.
Eavesdropping first Brexit discussion. Two suited (no tie) middle-aged, middle-class conservative, possibly Conservative commuters.
Totally ambivalent about Brexit, but assuming Remain will win. Happy about the idea of PM Boris. Could go either way, but should have been in the bag for Remain.
Double umlauted letters are specific to Hungary - they have four forms of each of the letters o and u, as follows:
o, ó, ö, ő
u, ú, ü, ű
To Hungarians they all sound as different as o and u.
(If you are still sober reading this and if you are, why?)
However I have been bemused by comments from remainers on the board that out is a bigger issue than Indyref.
Personally I don't see it that way, but as I have commented before this ref is probably more values driven which is why Remain and Leave enthusiasts just can't understand where the other side is coming from.
I can report the Midland Metro extension from Bull Street to Birmingham New Street is definitely up running, as well as the new stop at Snow Hill.
I think right now is the first time that I have felt that Leave might actually win this.
Gulp.
Those of us who have studied our history have all stated that the Euro will eventually collapse - no currency area without a consolidated debt market consistent with that area has withstood the test of time. That's not opinion, that's a fact. And I'm not about to start betting that 6,000 years of history with that rule is going to be overturned by the experience of the Euro. Technology may change over time, human nature has not. The leaders of the EU and all those acolytes and followers have shown that they are ignorant of that basic historical fact. And if they couldn't consolidate the eurozone debt at the time of the Euro launch in 1999 when confidence in the political class was so much higher than today, then they haven't got a hope in hell now.
Which is why despite how strongly I feel about the EU, I don't think the result either way will make all that much difference when we come to look back on the next 4 years in 2020. The Euro will collapse and the miserable EU project with it at some point - I personally think 2018. It would help from a strictly limited UK standpoint if we vote leave in 23 days time but the EU goose is cooked. Look at the Austrian presidential election, 60% youth unemployment and the unresolved issues on the Euro periphery, the rise of nationalism across the EU - its like the Ottoman empire circa 1916 - its just waiting for a few final knockout blows to consign the 'project' to the dustbin of history.
....
Sometimes the status quo is not the best option.
The USA works / worked (although there is a growing separatist movement in places like Vermont and Texas that will eventually lead to its breakup) because there was pretty much one language and one culture, and everyone thinks of themselves as American, whatever that might mean to them. Nobody in the EU thinks of themselves first and foremost as a European Unionist for want of better parlance. Without one language and one culture, the whole idea of the European Union simply is not a 'fit' for the reality of the European people. Communism failed in 1989 because it's 'elite' were so far removed from the wider population. I would postulate that the EU 'elite' is in a similar position today with regard to its wider population that it serves so dismally.