I guess the one small chink of light for Remain is that even after a week of relentless focus on immigration things are still tight and there are enough undecided to change things. But it's very hard to see how they can regain the narrative. The media love immigration as a subject, too, because it is so visual and there are so many stories to tell. It's much harder to illustrate stories about the economy in an engaging way.
I guess the one small chink of light for Remain is that even after a week of relentless focus on immigration things are still tight and there are enough undecided to change things. But it's very hard to see how they can regain the narrative. The media love immigration as a subject, too, because it is so visual and there are so many stories to tell. It's much harder to illustrate stories about the economy in an engaging way.
We would have to fail to qualify from our group for the Euros to have any effect either way – as the Referendum is the day immediately following the culmination of the group stages.
Even with England's dismal recent tournament record, our not getting out of the group remains unlikely. The new format means we would probably have have to finish rock bottom in our group, in a pool featuring Russia, Slovakia and Wales, as the top three teams will all progress to the Second Round in four out of six groups.
Betfair make our failing to progress a 7-1 shot, an even longer gambit that Brexit was during the Remain glory days of last week.
Very good news. Let's keep the old git ratio up on here.
Not sure what Cameron can do now regarding Project Fear. World war three, bubonic plague, zombie apocalypse. Not much left. There's always honesty ... or a brighter vision for Europe ... naw ... thought not.
Question to Labour remainers/Tory Brexiteers: Would you swap a leave vote for Corbyn as PM?
No. A Corbyn-led government would be a total clusterf**k. The sooner he retires to his allotment and his friends disappear out of public life the better. Then we can hope to have a centre left party decent people can vote for.
A shatteringly bad poll for Cameron ...... but he has only himself to blame. His personally undertaken EU so-called renegotiation was a complete joke, compounded by the way in which he then tried to take the electorate as fools by pretending he had achieved a great deal. The whole sorry saga was made all the worse when it became clear that his Government were unwilling and incapable of doing anything about controlling immigration levels after 6 years+ in office. He's finished!
He hasn't lost yet. If he wins, you could quite easily argue the eurosceptic right of his party are the ones that are finished*
*I don't argue that. The Tory Party will muddle on, despite being hopelessly divided on Europe. Twas ever thus.
Question to Labour remainers/Tory Brexiteers: Would you swap a leave vote for Corbyn as PM?
You might as well ask whether you'd swap to get a horse into Downing Street. It is about as likely.
Leave is Labour's disaster as well as Dave's. It has been totally invisible and has made no effort to run any kind of serious campaign. Clearly this is because the leadership is not that bothered about the result. The unions will be, though.
If this ICM is repeated, Leave will be heading towards evens.
The 7-2 on Wales going won't last long either - from a tub of 2 million random red and blue tops what is the probability of picking out 16 blue ones and 25 red ones, and there being more blue ones than red ones in the pot...
It is not 78% !
The England price should be a tick/tick-and-a-half under the UK price. The Wales price should basically be the UK price, imo. Our Missouri.
I think your scenario below Southam is extremely plausible, and possibly increasingly inevitable. You had the foresight to predict a Tory victory at the last election, so I do have some confidence in your predictive abilities.
I guess the one small chink of light for Remain is that even after a week of relentless focus on immigration things are still tight and there are enough undecided to change things. But it's very hard to see how they can regain the narrative. The media love immigration as a subject, too, because it is so visual and there are so many stories to tell. It's much harder to illustrate stories about the economy in an engaging way.
It's never been in doubt for me. As soon as the 330,000 figure came out last week it looked like game over. As you could see from the coverage that figure got on all the TV channels and since then too, immigration is so televisual and there are always stories to tell. Throw in the fact no-one in the government has ever sought to make a positive case - despite the entire economic and fiscal policy depending on it - and no-one should be surprised by these polls and by the UK's withdrawal from the EU.
The real fun starts on 24th June. Cameron and Osborne will clearly have to go. That means a Tory leadership election. Then the Brexit deal has to be worked out against the backdrop of what is now basically a hung Parliament. I can't see how we can go much further than the autumn without a general election. Thanks to Corbyn, that should produce a new Tory majority and also a few UKIP MPs, which will spell the end of Corbyn, thankfully. The SNP will run specifically seeking a mandate for a new independence referendum.
In short, triangulating Dave and George will take the UK out of the EU and cause the break-up of the UK. But they may also hasten the Labour party coming to its senses.
I guess the one small chink of light for Remain is that even after a week of relentless focus on immigration things are still tight and there are enough undecided to change things. But it's very hard to see how they can regain the narrative. The media love immigration as a subject, too, because it is so visual and there are so many stories to tell. It's much harder to illustrate stories about the economy in an engaging way.
It's never been in doubt for me. As soon as the 330,000 figure came out last week it looked like game over. As you could see from the coverage that figure got on all the TV channels and since then too, immigration is so televisual and there are always stories to tell. Throw in the fact no-one in the government has ever sought to make a positive case - despite the entire economic and fiscal policy depending on it - and no-one should be surprised by these polls and by the UK's withdrawal from the EU.
The real fun starts on 24th June. Cameron and Osborne will clearly have to go. That means a Tory leadership election. Then the Brexit deal has to be worked out against the backdrop of what is now basically a hung Parliament. I can't see how we can go much further than the autumn without a general election. Thanks to Corbyn, that should produce a new Tory majority and also a few UKIP MPs, which will spell the end of Corbyn, thankfully. The SNP will run specifically seeking a mandate for a new independence referendum.
In short, triangulating Dave and George will take the UK out of the EU and cause the break-up of the UK. But they may also hasten the Labour party coming to its senses.
I'm not so sure Mr Cameron will go in the event of a Leave vote.
Perhaps the nearest parallel is the way he responded to the Labour party's rejection of the thought-to-be-agreed stance on intervention in Syria (?).
IIRC, they apparently expected him to come back with another opportunity to vote, but he immediately 'bowed to the will of the House' and that really angered them.
I'd expect Mr Cameron to respond in the same sort of way to a Leave vote. Throw himself into doing what the country has decided upon.
I'm glad now that I closed out my open Betfair position before going to Hungary. One of those occasions when caution has been rewarded.
First we need to understand why the phone poll has moved and the online poll hasn't.
NB it's not just one poll, the ORB phone poll also showed a move to Leave. So there seems to be something else going on with the phone polls.
Last week, the methodology in the online poll was adjusted in a way that was unfavourable to Leave, producing a tie. On the old basis, the online poll would probably show Leave ahead by 6-8%.
A shatteringly bad poll for Cameron ...... but he has only himself to blame. His personally undertaken EU so-called renegotiation was a complete joke, compounded by the way in which he then tried to take the electorate as fools by pretending he had achieved a great deal. The whole sorry saga was made all the worse when it became clear that his Government were unwilling and incapable of doing anything about controlling immigration levels after 6 years+ in office. He's finished!
He hasn't lost yet. If he wins, you could quite easily argue the eurosceptic right of his party are the ones that are finished*
*I don't argue that. The Tory Party will muddle on, despite being hopelessly divided on Europe. Twas ever thus.
Well, not if the EU suffers a sudden (and wholly deserved) collapse into oblivion. Then there will be no longer be a divide in the Tory Party....
If this ICM is repeated, Leave will be heading towards evens.
The 7-2 on Wales going won't last long either - from a tub of 2 million random red and blue tops what is the probability of picking out 16 blue ones and 25 red ones, and there being more blue ones than red ones in the pot...
It is not 78% !
The England price should be a tick/tick-and-a-half under the UK price. The Wales price should basically be the UK price, imo. Our Missouri.
Rural England will without doubt vote Brexit.
Leave ======
Midlands Rural North Southwest Southeast outside London
Remain ===== London Urban North Scotland N Ireland Gibraltar
Cardiff + Swansea is 18% of Wales, are there likely to be many more decent "Remain" reservoirs there ?
I guess the one small chink of light for Remain is that even after a week of relentless focus on immigration things are still tight and there are enough undecided to change things. But it's very hard to see how they can regain the narrative. The media love immigration as a subject, too, because it is so visual and there are so many stories to tell. It's much harder to illustrate stories about the economy in an engaging way.
It's never been in doubt for me. As soon as the 330,000 figure came out last week it looked like game over. As you could see from the coverage that figure got on all the TV channels and since then too, immigration is so televisual and there are always stories to tell. Throw in the fact no-one in the government has ever sought to make a positive case - despite the entire economic and fiscal policy depending on it - and no-one should be surprised by these polls and by the UK's withdrawal from the EU.
The real fun starts on 24th June. Cameron and Osborne will clearly have to go. That means a Tory leadership election. Then the Brexit deal has to be worked out against the backdrop of what is now basically a hung Parliament. I can't see how we can go much further than the autumn without a general election. Thanks to Corbyn, that should produce a new Tory majority and also a few UKIP MPs, which will spell the end of Corbyn, thankfully. The SNP will run specifically seeking a mandate for a new independence referendum.
In short, triangulating Dave and George will take the UK out of the EU and cause the break-up of the UK. But they may also hasten the Labour party coming to its senses.
I'm not so sure Mr Cameron will go in the event of a Leave vote.
Perhaps the nearest parallel is the way he responded to the Labour party's rejection of the thought-to-be-agreed stance on intervention in Syria (?).
IIRC, they apparently expected him to come back with another opportunity to vote, but he immediately 'bowed to the will of the House' and that really angered them.
I'd expect Mr Cameron to respond in the same sort of way to a Leave vote. Throw himself into doing what the country has decided upon.
It's not really up to him, though. He will have lost all authority in his party, in the country and, just as important, on the international stage. Ditto Osborne. They are three weeks and two days from it all being over for them.
Anyone want to guess what the swing will be on day 22 of Mike's holiday?
Anyone interested in polling methods will want to watch the recent BBC Parlaiment programme with three well known polling experts explaining the difference between the referendum polling results for telephone and online polling.
So, those most vociferously attacking Leave are now patting themselves on the back for betting on Leave at fancy prices, or at best trading out of their positions.
This place is like the betfair forum, nobody on there has ever placed a losing bet either.
US State Dept. issues travel warning for citizens planning to attend "large events" in Europe...
I'm off to Benidorm for a stag weekend on Friday. Even the headbangers from round here are telling me to be careful. Eastern European gangs preying on drunk people; locals selling dodgy drugs; ISIS trying to bomb the place; half naked Brits wanting a scrap.
That is why people of different convictions are drawn to this site. Political betting is incredibly lucrative if you keep your sentiments to one side. I have made my best wins going backing outcomes I really dislike.
So, those most vociferously attacking Leave are now patting themselves on the back for betting on Leave at fancy prices, or at best trading out of their positions.
This place is like the betfair forum, nobody on there has ever placed a losing bet either.
So, those most vociferously attacking Leave are now patting themselves on the back for betting on Leave at fancy prices, or at best trading out of their positions.
This place is like the betfair forum, nobody on there has ever placed a losing bet either.
Aftertiming.
Can you get a recount going for the London mayorals, I'm still waiting to collect on the UKIP chap finishing third
Or, the far more likely explanation is that the vast explosion in articles on the EU referendum means sites with incredibly high quality score like the Guardian and FT now climb above the dedicated site in the rankings.
So, those most vociferously attacking Leave are now patting themselves on the back for betting on Leave at fancy prices, or at best trading out of their positions.
This place is like the betfair forum, nobody on there has ever placed a losing bet either.
Aftertiming.
Can you get a recount going for the London mayorals, I'm still waiting to collect on the UKIP chap finishing third
So, those most vociferously attacking Leave are now patting themselves on the back for betting on Leave at fancy prices, or at best trading out of their positions.
This place is like the betfair forum, nobody on there has ever placed a losing bet either.
Aftertiming.
Can you get a recount going for the London mayorals, I'm still waiting to collect on the UKIP chap finishing third
So, those most vociferously attacking Leave are now patting themselves on the back for betting on Leave at fancy prices, or at best trading out of their positions.
This place is like the betfair forum, nobody on there has ever placed a losing bet either.
Aftertiming.
Can you get a recount going for the London mayorals, I'm still waiting to collect on the UKIP chap finishing third
'Cameron needs to come up with some serious fear-level shit, and fast.'
That may be difficult.
'UK would do okay outside the European Union, David Cameron says! “Some people seem to say that really Britain couldn’t survive, couldn’t do okay outside the European Union. I don’t think that is true, Let’s be frank, Britain is an amazing country. We’ve got the fifth biggest economy in the world. We’re a top ten manufacturer. We’ve got incredibly strong financial services. The world wants to come and do business here. Look at the record of inward investment. Look at the leaders beating the path to our door to come and see what’s happening with this great country’s economy. .... Britain could survive outside the EU. Of course it could.”
David Cameron quoted from The Independent - 9th Nov 2015
John Zims - that's brilliant; that basically sums up my position. Do you have a link for that?
I guess the one small chink of light for Remain is that even after a week of relentless focus on immigration things are still tight and there are enough undecided to change things. But it's very hard to see how they can regain the narrative. The media love immigration as a subject, too, because it is so visual and there are so many stories to tell. It's much harder to illustrate stories about the economy in an engaging way.
It's never been in doubt for me. As soon as the 330,000 figure came out last week it looked like game over. As you could see from the coverage that figure got on all the TV channels and since then too, immigration is so televisual and there are always stories to tell. Throw in the fact no-one in the government has ever sought to make a positive case - despite the entire economic and fiscal policy depending on it - and no-one should be surprised by these polls and by the UK's withdrawal from the EU.
The real fun starts on 24th June. Cameron and Osborne will clearly have to go. That means a Tory leadership election. Then the Brexit deal has to be worked out against the backdrop of what is now basically a hung Parliament. I can't see how we can go much further than the autumn without a general election. Thanks to Corbyn, that should produce a new Tory majority and also a few UKIP MPs, which will spell the end of Corbyn, thankfully. The SNP will run specifically seeking a mandate for a new independence referendum.
In short, triangulating Dave and George will take the UK out of the EU and cause the break-up of the UK. But they may also hasten the Labour party coming to its senses.
I'm not so sure Mr Cameron will go in the event of a Leave vote.
Perhaps the nearest parallel is the way he responded to the Labour party's rejection of the thought-to-be-agreed stance on intervention in Syria (?).
IIRC, they apparently expected him to come back with another opportunity to vote, but he immediately 'bowed to the will of the House' and that really angered them.
I'd expect Mr Cameron to respond in the same sort of way to a Leave vote. Throw himself into doing what the country has decided upon.
It's not really up to him, though. He will have lost all authority in his party, in the country and, just as important, on the international stage. Ditto Osborne. They are three weeks and two days from it all being over for them.
So, those most vociferously attacking Leave are now patting themselves on the back for betting on Leave at fancy prices, or at best trading out of their positions.
This place is like the betfair forum, nobody on there has ever placed a losing bet either.
Aftertiming.
Can you get a recount going for the London mayorals, I'm still waiting to collect on the UKIP chap finishing third
Where did he finish?
Fifth
Blimey, who was 3rd and 4th?
Berry, the Green lady was third and the yellow peril 4th.
My bets placed outwith the main mayoral outcome (Including @Alastair) 's Scottish "certs" were intensely annoying :[ !
'Cameron needs to come up with some serious fear-level shit, and fast.'
That may be difficult.
'UK would do okay outside the European Union, David Cameron says! “Some people seem to say that really Britain couldn’t survive, couldn’t do okay outside the European Union. I don’t think that is true, Let’s be frank, Britain is an amazing country. We’ve got the fifth biggest economy in the world. We’re a top ten manufacturer. We’ve got incredibly strong financial services. The world wants to come and do business here. Look at the record of inward investment. Look at the leaders beating the path to our door to come and see what’s happening with this great country’s economy. .... Britain could survive outside the EU. Of course it could.”
David Cameron quoted from The Independent - 9th Nov 2015
John Zims - that's brilliant; that basically sums up my position. Do you have a link for that?
So, those most vociferously attacking Leave are now patting themselves on the back for betting on Leave at fancy prices, or at best trading out of their positions.
This place is like the betfair forum, nobody on there has ever placed a losing bet either.
Aftertiming.
Can you get a recount going for the London mayorals, I'm still waiting to collect on the UKIP chap finishing third
Where did he finish?
Fifth
Blimey, who was 3rd and 4th?
Berry, the Green lady was third and the yellow peril 4th.
My bets placed outwith the main mayoral outcome (Including @Alastair) 's Scottish "certs" were intensely annoying :[ !
If this ICM is repeated, Leave will be heading towards evens.
The 7-2 on Wales going won't last long either - from a tub of 2 million random red and blue tops what is the probability of picking out 16 blue ones and 25 red ones, and there being more blue ones than red ones in the pot...
It is not 78% !
The England price should be a tick/tick-and-a-half under the UK price. The Wales price should basically be the UK price, imo. Our Missouri.
Nevada more like, Missouri ceased to be a swing state in 2008
From PB contributor, ComRes pollster, and all round good egg Adam Ludlow
@Adam_Ludlow: Would ask how many ppl in your office went away this bank holiday weekend (or are still away on half term..) before reading today's polls..
So, those most vociferously attacking Leave are now patting themselves on the back for betting on Leave at fancy prices, or at best trading out of their positions.
This place is like the betfair forum, nobody on there has ever placed a losing bet either.
Aftertiming.
Can you get a recount going for the London mayorals, I'm still waiting to collect on the UKIP chap finishing third
Where did he finish?
Fifth
Blimey, who was 3rd and 4th?
Berry, the Green lady was third and the yellow peril 4th.
My bets placed outwith the main mayoral outcome (Including @Alastair) 's Scottish "certs" were intensely annoying :[ !
Ahhhh, surely you "greened up" (winky face)
Not on that one I didn't . Stuck for 120 outside Zac/Khan (Where I had greened nicely)
I'm a fan of Cameron and applaud him for sticking to his promise of a referendum, and I also very much doubt that Brexit will win.
But the point is - and it pains me to say it - that he is probably finished as a credible PM post Ref. You can't offer a referendum, then promise a huge renegotiation and preface that renegotiation by stating you really don't want to leave.... and then tell the people that there will be catastrophe if we left.
It just isn't credible. And he's come across as a bullshitter.
If leaving the EU was so incredibly risky to our future then why the bloody hell did he offer a vote on leaving?
It's been very poorly done and I suspect it is game over for him and Osborne.
Well said.
It's sad when you've been a fan of someone for ten years, to see him turn around and treat those who elevated him to that position so badly. Cameron's burned his bridges and is a dead man walking in the Conservative leadership after the referendum.
I guess the one small chink of light for Remain is that even after a week of relentless focus on immigration things are still tight and there are enough undecided to change things. But it's very hard to see how they can regain the narrative. The media love immigration as a subject, too, because it is so visual and there are so many stories to tell. It's much harder to illustrate stories about the economy in an engaging way.
It's never been in doubt for me. As soon as the 330,000 figure came out last week it looked like game over. As you could see from the coverage that figure got on all the TV channels and since then too, immigration is so televisual and there are always stories to tell. Throw in the fact no-one in the government has ever sought to make a positive case - despite the entire economic and fiscal policy depending on it - and no-one should be surprised by these polls and by the UK's withdrawal from the EU.
The real fun starts on 24th June. Cameron and Osborne will clearly have to go. That means a Tory leadership election. Then the Brexit deal has to be worked out against the backdrop of what is now basically a hung Parliament. I can't see how we can go much further than the autumn without a general election. Thanks to Corbyn, that should produce a new Tory majority and also a few UKIP MPs, which will spell the end of Corbyn, thankfully. The SNP will run specifically seeking a mandate for a new independence referendum.
In short, triangulating Dave and George will take the UK out of the EU and cause the break-up of the UK. But they may also hasten the Labour party coming to its senses.
I'm not so sure Mr Cameron will go in the event of a Leave vote.
Perhaps the nearest parallel is the way he responded to the Labour party's rejection of the thought-to-be-agreed stance on intervention in Syria (?).
IIRC, they apparently expected him to come back with another opportunity to vote, but he immediately 'bowed to the will of the House' and that really angered them.
I'd expect Mr Cameron to respond in the same sort of way to a Leave vote. Throw himself into doing what the country has decided upon.
His backbenchers will throw him out before he decides what to do if Leave do win
From PB contributor, ComRes pollster, and all round good egg Adam Ludlow
@Adam_Ludlow: Would ask how many ppl in your office went away this bank holiday weekend (or are still away on half term..) before reading today's polls..
Well, I went to Portsmouth and the Isle of Wight on Sunday/Monday.
Went up the Spinnaker Tower, visited HMS Warrior and HMS Victory in the Dockyard, then went on the catamaran ferry to Ryde on the Isle of Wight, and took the old Tube Train down to Shanklin and saw Sandown Bay.
Adam Ludlow makes a good point – (mostly europhile) ABs high likelihood to be away due to Bank Holiday and schools half-term. Poll could well be a rogue.
From PB contributor, ComRes pollster, and all round good egg Adam Ludlow
@Adam_Ludlow: Would ask how many ppl in your office went away this bank holiday weekend (or are still away on half term..) before reading today's polls..
1) a 0.5% move in cable is nothing - just daily vol
2) shifts in cable as a result of brexit polling is driven by changes in consensus expectations of interest rates. The commonly accepted the sis is that the Bank will cut rates in the event of an out vote - just to add some extra juice to the market. This is what causes the shift in relative fx. You cant read anything into it really...
I'm a fan of Cameron and applaud him for sticking to his promise of a referendum, and I also very much doubt that Brexit will win.
But the point is - and it pains me to say it - that he is probably finished as a credible PM post Ref. You can't offer a referendum, then promise a huge renegotiation and preface that renegotiation by stating you really don't want to leave.... and then tell the people that there will be catastrophe if we left.
It just isn't credible. And he's come across as a bullshitter.
If leaving the EU was so incredibly risky to our future then why the bloody hell did he offer a vote on leaving?
It's been very poorly done and I suspect it is game over for him and Osborne.
Well said.
It's sad when you've been a fan of someone for ten years, to see him turn around and treat those who elevated him to that position so badly. Cameron's burned his bridges and is a dead man walking in the Conservative leadership after the referendum.
Yeah, I pretty much agree with what @Fenster said. A shame really..
Adam Ludlow makes a good point – (mostly europhile) ABs high likelihood to be away due to Bank Holiday and schools half-term. Poll could well be a rogue.
Adam Ludlow makes a good point – (mostly europhile) ABs high likelihood to be away due to Bank Holiday and schools half-term. Poll could well be a rogue.
From PB contributor, ComRes pollster, and all round good egg Adam Ludlow
@Adam_Ludlow: Would ask how many ppl in your office went away this bank holiday weekend (or are still away on half term..) before reading today's polls..
Aren't Tories the ones usually away on holiday though?
1) a 0.5% move in cable is nothing - just daily vol
2) shifts in cable as a result of brexit polling is driven by changes in consensus expectations of interest rates. The commonly accepted the sis is that the Bank will cut rates in the event of an out vote - just to add some extra juice to the market. This is what causes the shift in relative fx. You cant read anything into it really...
Looks like the £ has been bouncing along and then taken a bit of a tumble; though not much of one. But it may indicate that something more dramatic will happen if there are a few more polls like the last two.
1) a 0.5% move in cable is nothing - just daily vol
2) shifts in cable as a result of brexit polling is driven by changes in consensus expectations of interest rates. The commonly accepted the sis is that the Bank will cut rates in the event of an out vote - just to add some extra juice to the market. This is what causes the shift in relative fx. You cant read anything into it really...
Looks like the £ has been bouncing along and then taken a bit of a tumble; though not much of one. But it may indicate that something more dramatic will happen if there are a few more polls like the last two.
It's the price action that looks so bad -spike high, triple top and strong rejection at 1.47. Cable is going lower imo.
Question to Labour remainers/Tory Brexiteers: Would you swap a leave vote for Corbyn as PM?
Hmm. I think a Leave vote would be a disaster, as noted earlier, but I also think it would quite possibly lead to a Corbyn government, as I really think the Leave Tories have underestimated the Black Wednesday style economic vortex that would follow Leave. My ideal if we did vote Leave, I think, would be general consensus that it was a horrible mistake, with Corbyn taking over and getting some genuine negotiations leading to a fresh vote.
1) a 0.5% move in cable is nothing - just daily vol
2) shifts in cable as a result of brexit polling is driven by changes in consensus expectations of interest rates. The commonly accepted the sis is that the Bank will cut rates in the event of an out vote - just to add some extra juice to the market. This is what causes the shift in relative fx. You cant read anything into it really...
Looks like the £ has been bouncing along and then taken a bit of a tumble; though not much of one. But it may indicate that something more dramatic will happen if there are a few more polls like the last two.
Yes, but see point 2. It's to do with rate expectations not "chaos" or somesuch hyperbole
I'm a fan of Cameron and applaud him for sticking to his promise of a referendum, and I also very much doubt that Brexit will win.
But the point is - and it pains me to say it - that he is probably finished as a credible PM post Ref. You can't offer a referendum, then promise a huge renegotiation and preface that renegotiation by stating you really don't want to leave.... and then tell the people that there will be catastrophe if we left.
It just isn't credible. And he's come across as a bullshitter.
If leaving the EU was so incredibly risky to our future then why the bloody hell did he offer a vote on leaving?
It's been very poorly done and I suspect it is game over for him and Osborne.
Well said.
It's sad when you've been a fan of someone for ten years, to see him turn around and treat those who elevated him to that position so badly. Cameron's burned his bridges and is a dead man walking in the Conservative leadership after the referendum.
And the real tragedy is that it's entirely self inflicted.
Question to Labour remainers/Tory Brexiteers: Would you swap a leave vote for Corbyn as PM?
Hmm. I think a Leave vote would be a disaster, as noted earlier, but I also think it would quite possibly lead to a Corbyn government, as I really think the Leave Tories have underestimated the Black Wednesday style economic vortex that would follow Leave. My ideal if we did vote Leave, I think, would be general consensus that it was a horrible mistake, with Corbyn taking over and getting some genuine negotiations leading to a fresh vote.
I appreciate that it's a minority view here!
Yes - any damage that Corbyn does can be corrected in due course (5 years max). Further damage from ever-closer-integration would have to wait for 40 years.
I agree that Leave is the value at the moment, essentially because who the hell knows what the true position is? A 7% swing in a month is implausible, but that doesn't mean this poll is wrong; it might have been the previous one which was overstating the Remain position. Stephen Fisher's poll-based analysis of a few days ago had as its central forecast Remain 55%, but with a whopping plus or minus 12.5% error at the 95% confidence level. Frustrating though it may be, my take is that those large error bars reflect the truth, which is that we just don't know.
I'm sceptical that there has actually been any movement in the polls. This just seems to be tacit admission that the online polls were nearer the mark from the phone pollsters.
Whats all this in comments further down about EU citizens resident here getting polling cards, or has someone forgotten Cyprus and Malta are in the commonwealth and Irish Citizens count as honorary UK citizens?
I'm a fan of Cameron and applaud him for sticking to his promise of a referendum, and I also very much doubt that Brexit will win.
But the point is - and it pains me to say it - that he is probably finished as a credible PM post Ref. You can't offer a referendum, then promise a huge renegotiation and preface that renegotiation by stating you really don't want to leave.... and then tell the people that there will be catastrophe if we left.
It just isn't credible. And he's come across as a bullshitter.
If leaving the EU was so incredibly risky to our future then why the bloody hell did he offer a vote on leaving?
It's been very poorly done and I suspect it is game over for him and Osborne.
Well said.
It's sad when you've been a fan of someone for ten years, to see him turn around and treat those who elevated him to that position so badly. Cameron's burned his bridges and is a dead man walking in the Conservative leadership after the referendum.
And the real tragedy is that it's entirely self inflicted.
Indeed.
The whole tone of the debate, the exaggerated & hyperbolic tone of war and famine, has come directly from the PM. He owns it and could have prevented it at any point in favour of a polite and nuanced debate with others in his own party.
But no, war and famine it is, and a huge number of his own MPs and party members will never forgive him for it.
Question to Labour remainers/Tory Brexiteers: Would you swap a leave vote for Corbyn as PM?
Hmm. I think a Leave vote would be a disaster, as noted earlier, but I also think it would quite possibly lead to a Corbyn government, as I really think the Leave Tories have underestimated the Black Wednesday style economic vortex that would follow Leave. My ideal if we did vote Leave, I think, would be general consensus that it was a horrible mistake, with Corbyn taking over and getting some genuine negotiations leading to a fresh vote.
I appreciate that it's a minority view here!
If it were seen so immediately as 'a horrible mistake' (by whom, I wonder? By the same people who've been so urgent we should vote Remain?) there would be no need for 'genuine negotiations', would there?
Mr Corbyn puts me off completely, but as someone else said below or on a previous thread, a government is a short-term thing; the EU likes to see itself as Forever.
Question to Labour remainers/Tory Brexiteers: Would you swap a leave vote for Corbyn as PM?
Hmm. I think a Leave vote would be a disaster, as noted earlier, but I also think it would quite possibly lead to a Corbyn government, as I really think the Leave Tories have underestimated the Black Wednesday style economic vortex that would follow Leave. My ideal if we did vote Leave, I think, would be general consensus that it was a horrible mistake, with Corbyn taking over and getting some genuine negotiations leading to a fresh vote.
I appreciate that it's a minority view here!
There was no 'economic vortex' following Black Wednesday. It led to to a period sustained growth lasting until 2008'
Hmm. I think a Leave vote would be a disaster, as noted earlier, but I also think it would quite possibly lead to a Corbyn government, as I really think the Leave Tories have underestimated the Black Wednesday style economic vortex that would follow Leave.
I'm sceptical that there has actually been any movement in the polls. This just seems to be tacit admission that the online polls were nearer the mark from the phone pollsters.
Whats all this in comments further down about EU citizens resident here getting polling cards, or has someone forgotten Cyprus and Malta are in the commonwealth and Irish Citizens count as honorary UK citizens?
Poland were not in the Commonwealth or Ireland the last time I looked.
As I keep saying, they should downweight people, but not upweight anyone; nobody is worth more than one vote. Take what they've downweighted off people, and give that proportion to dk/wnv. Then the voting intentions should tally with turnout prediction, and we'd have a truer picture of what's going on.
If I were cleverer I'd do this myself and call it something like TCP - Totally Clueless Populace index. But I'm not nearly clever enough to work out backwards how they've upweighted and downweighted people, so sadly the polling world must remain in the dark.
Or, the far more likely explanation is that the vast explosion in articles on the EU referendum means sites with incredibly high quality score like the Guardian and FT now climb above the dedicated site in the rankings.
I never believe ANYONE could use 'high quality' and 'The Guardian' in the same sentence.
However you may be right - as more and more recent stuff comes on, it gets a boost in the page rankings - and Google loves words - put 2000 or so on a topic to get a good ranking for it. (It helps if there aren't 300 'if's', 'might's', 'maybe's', 'possibly's' though).
NBC has Clinton up 2% nationally so NJ still more Democratic than the nation, another Boston Herald poll out has New Hampshire tied 44% to 44% so it is leaning more to its formerly GOP roots
Or, the far more likely explanation is that the vast explosion in articles on the EU referendum means sites with incredibly high quality score like the Guardian and FT now climb above the dedicated site in the rankings.
I never believe ANYONE could use 'high quality' and 'The Guardian' in the same sentence.
One for the "corrections and clarifications" department, perhaps
Comments
Even with England's dismal recent tournament record, our not getting out of the group remains unlikely. The new format means we would probably have have to finish rock bottom in our group, in a pool featuring Russia, Slovakia and Wales, as the top three teams will all progress to the Second Round in four out of six groups.
Betfair make our failing to progress a 7-1 shot, an even longer gambit that Brexit was during the Remain glory days of last week.
Very good news. Let's keep the old git ratio up on here.
Not sure what Cameron can do now regarding Project Fear. World war three, bubonic plague, zombie apocalypse. Not much left. There's always honesty ... or a brighter vision for Europe ... naw ... thought not.
I wonder if he succeeded in getting his money on LEAVE at or above 5.0 (4/1) as he was threatening to do a few days ago?
First we need to understand why the phone poll has moved and the online poll hasn't.
NB it's not just one poll, the ORB phone poll also showed a move to Leave. So there seems to be something else going on with the phone polls.
"Brexit will cost us all £4300 per year"
*cough*
He hasn't lost yet. If he wins, you could quite easily argue the eurosceptic right of his party are the ones that are finished*
*I don't argue that. The Tory Party will muddle on, despite being hopelessly divided on Europe. Twas ever thus.
Leave is Labour's disaster as well as Dave's. It has been totally invisible and has made no effort to run any kind of serious campaign. Clearly this is because the leadership is not that bothered about the result. The unions will be, though.
Perhaps the nearest parallel is the way he responded to the Labour party's rejection of the thought-to-be-agreed stance on intervention in Syria (?).
IIRC, they apparently expected him to come back with another opportunity to vote, but he immediately 'bowed to the will of the House' and that really angered them.
I'd expect Mr Cameron to respond in the same sort of way to a Leave vote. Throw himself into doing what the country has decided upon.
Leave
======
Midlands
Rural North
Southwest
Southeast outside London
Remain
=====
London
Urban North
Scotland
N Ireland
Gibraltar
Cardiff + Swansea is 18% of Wales, are there likely to be many more decent "Remain" reservoirs there ?
Anyone interested in polling methods will want to watch the recent BBC Parlaiment programme with three well known polling experts explaining the difference between the referendum polling results for telephone and online polling.
This is at
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07ggk4g
This place is like the betfair forum, nobody on there has ever placed a losing bet either.
Aftertiming.
Political betting is incredibly lucrative if you keep your sentiments to one side. I have made my best wins going backing outcomes I really dislike.
Wishing you very many more years of health sir.
My bets placed outwith the main mayoral outcome (Including @Alastair) 's Scottish "certs" were intensely annoying :[ !
There were four between May 2011 to September 2014 for the Scottish referendum.
enormo-haddock.blogspot.com
There is the odd winner, but it's about 80% wrong this year.
@Adam_Ludlow: Would ask how many ppl in your office went away this bank holiday weekend (or are still away on half term..) before reading today's polls..
It's sad when you've been a fan of someone for ten years, to see him turn around and treat those who elevated him to that position so badly. Cameron's burned his bridges and is a dead man walking in the Conservative leadership after the referendum.
LEAVE winning here.
Went up the Spinnaker Tower, visited HMS Warrior and HMS Victory in the Dockyard, then went on the catamaran ferry to Ryde on the Isle of Wight, and took the old Tube Train down to Shanklin and saw Sandown Bay.
You?
'John Zims - that's brilliant; that basically sums up my position. Do you have a link for that?'
'European Union David Cameron - The Independent
www.independent.co.uk › News › UK › UK Politics
9 Nov 2015 - UK would do okay outside the European Union, David Cameron says. The PM is ... Jon Stone · @joncstone; Monday 9 November 2015 ...
Mike made a wise choice to go abroad before the pound slumps afetr a LEAVE vote on June 23rd.
1) a 0.5% move in cable is nothing - just daily vol
2) shifts in cable as a result of brexit polling is driven by changes in consensus expectations of interest rates. The commonly accepted the sis is that the Bank will cut rates in the event of an out vote - just to add some extra juice to the market. This is what causes the shift in relative fx. You cant read anything into it really...
https://twitter.com/robertoroblesf/status/737663810421592064
The sneering tone just won't go away.
Why do you think most pollsters, and the Daily YouGov tracker stopped polling between the 20th of December and the second week of January.
I appreciate that it's a minority view here!
It's a no brainer.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36416929
Ahem. Pretty sure everybody knew that already...
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-hillary-clinton-trump-new-jersey-223724
https://electionsetc.com/2016/05/24/the-historical-referendums-and-polls-based-forecast-one-month-out/
How has he changed his mind so radically?
If anyone's interested, this is the article:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-would-do-okay-outside-the-european-union-david-cameron-says-a6727031.html
LOL !
There are no circumstances ever economic nor weather nor asteroid approaching that the Uk will ever vote for Corbyn as PM.
Smell that coffee.
2016 General Election
Clinton 47% Trump 45%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
Whats all this in comments further down about EU citizens resident here getting polling cards, or has someone forgotten Cyprus and Malta are in the commonwealth and Irish Citizens count as honorary UK citizens?
The whole tone of the debate, the exaggerated & hyperbolic tone of war and famine, has come directly from the PM. He owns it and could have prevented it at any point in favour of a polite and nuanced debate with others in his own party.
But no, war and famine it is, and a huge number of his own MPs and party members will never forgive him for it.
France is certainly suffering from Economic Terrorism at the moment.
Mr Corbyn puts me off completely, but as someone else said below or on a previous thread, a government is a short-term thing; the EU likes to see itself as Forever.
Poland were not in the Commonwealth or Ireland the last time I looked.
If I were cleverer I'd do this myself and call it something like TCP - Totally Clueless Populace index. But I'm not nearly clever enough to work out backwards how they've upweighted and downweighted people, so sadly the polling world must remain in the dark.
However you may be right - as more and more recent stuff comes on, it gets a boost in the page rankings - and Google loves words - put 2000 or so on a topic to get a good ranking for it. (It helps if there aren't 300 'if's', 'might's', 'maybe's', 'possibly's' though).