politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE’s repeated refusal to accept that its £50m a day clai
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That's a different question: did the UK sell off its assets in WW2?Luckyguy1983 said:
We were paupered in WW2 whilst the US got nice and fat on it.rcs1000 said:
Did our economy plunge in WW2?Indigo said:
Only if Remain clarify that World War 3 won't actually break out in the event of a Leave vote, neither will the economy plunge worse than it did in World War 2, and there won't be any refugee camps in Kent. I am sure there are others but that will do to be going on with.Big_G_NorthWales said:The Treasury Select Committee report pulls no punches and accuses both sides of false claims including the prospect of 3 million lost jobs on leave, but they reserve the highest criticism for leave's claim of 350 million a week saving which is untrue and misleading. Apparently the ONS is most critical and believes it should not be used. Bit difficult with it all over Boris's bus but leave need to clarify the figure which is 8.5 billion per annum, not even 10 billion as some on leave quote
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Tyrie is a EU FederalistBig_G_NorthWales said:
World war 3 was invented by the media but the important point is that it was Andrew Tyrie explaining his report and the 350 million was the Committee's biggest concernIndigo said:
Only if Remain clarify that World War 3 won't actually break out in the event of a Leave vote, neither will the economy plunge worse than it did in World War 2, and there won't be any refugee camps in Kent. I am sure there are others but that will do to be going on with.Big_G_NorthWales said:The Treasury Select Committee report pulls no punches and accuses both sides of false claims including the prospect of 3 million lost jobs on leave, but they reserve the highest criticism for leave's claim of 350 million a week saving which is untrue and misleading. Apparently the ONS is most critical and believes it should not be used. Bit difficult with it all over Boris's bus but leave need to clarify the figure which is 8.5 billion per annum, not even 10 billion as some on leave quote
MRDA.0 -
Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.0
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That is your view but the way to deal with the EU is to remain and fight for change from withinHurstLlama said:
Oh, really? Firstly Boris could not negotiate the skin off a rice pudding. Secondly, even if he could, what you are advocating is a UK sitting on the sidelines bleating - and that strategy has worked out well so far hasn't it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Exactly my thoughts and why I believe on a remain vote a hardline eurosceptic needs to go to Brussels and would suggest David Cameron makes Boris the Minister for Europe. It would be the best of both worlds, remain but really irritate Juncker's and the eurocrates
FFS, fellows if you don't like the EU, just vote to leave. All these schemes about how we could reform it within or just bugger it up have already been tried and they have failed If you don't like the direction the EU is going in, just vote leave There really isn't a third way..0 -
Bretbart ran a story saying that Muslims couldn't become Japanese citizens, which will come as an enormous surprise the (formerly American) Goldman Sachs partner i know.TW1R64 said:There won't be a second chance!
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/27/hidden-plans-eu-army-command-centre-leaked-ahead-brexit-vote/
So excuse me if I take its pronouncements with a pinch salt.0 -
I'm sure it wouldn't but just to pass on current thinking.rcs1000 said:
I don't believe that our membership of EFTA would need the blessing of the EU.TOPPING said:
I had dinner the other day with a friend who knows such things, and he tells me (@robert also pls note) that apparently the EU has made it clear that the Norway EEA/EFTA option is not on the cards. The reasoning being that for an economy the size of the UK it would be ludicrous to have it in such satellite/dependency status.SouthamObserver said:
The referendum has got a lot of us thinking about the EU for the first time. Up until just a few months ago I thought I was going to sit it all out. But I found myself moving to Remain quite strongly when I began to consider the issues for the first time. Over the course of the campaign, though, and thanks in no small part to exchanges on here. I have drifted a lot more towards scepticism and the EU currently being the least worst option. I think that if EEA/EFTA were still a realistic option I might even be persuadable on Leave this time round. But that is not going to happen.Casino_Royale said:
Which won't happen.SeanT said:
It's internecine. REMAINIACS on the right (and we're speaking mainly about the right) have loathed and feared the sceptics for decades (and vice versa). They will see a victory as a great advance, in that civil war, perhaps even a permanent triumph - and will hope to purge the party of the sceptics as a result. See articles by Matthew Parris, passim.Pulpstar said:
I don't get the enthusiaer eating 50 hard boiled eggs.
Of course the traitorous pig-dogs of the REMAIN camp are completely deluded - they will be the ones suffering, if REMAIN wins - paradoxically - but that is what they think.
One of things (like Sean Fear) I'm taking away from this referendum is that people really don't like the EU. If all it does is just wakes people up to all the facts about how crap it really is to the UK, then that has value.
It's perfectly clear the europhile Left of the party were trying to call the eurosceptic bluff with this referendum, win a 65-35 victory (or more) and close this issue down for decades.
That isn't going to happen. Instead, they may have just let the genie out the bottle.
Brexit was a fringe position even as recently as four years ago.
At the very least, I'd say, a lot of us will be looking a lot more closely at developments inside the EU than we have in the past. If the other member states do as you believe they will and misread a vote to Remain I can see us being out within a relatively short period of time.0 -
Mr. NorthWales, the direction of travel is only one way, towards further integration. The best the UK ever gets is slowing that or achieving an exemption. QMV means our ability to resist integration and powers shifting from us to Brussels is significantly diminished.0
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The problem leave have is that to do a respray will reduce them to ridicule. What a messScott_P said:0 -
How would irritating Juncker and the rest of the EU bureaucrats help us to reform the EU which you have so often claimed is possible?Big_G_NorthWales said:Exactly my thoughts and why I believe on a remain vote a hardline eurosceptic needs to go to Brussels and would suggest David Cameron makes Boris the Minister for Europe. It would be the best of both worlds, remain but really irritate Juncker's and the eurocrates
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Really and what, pray, would they do if the UK told them to feck off?TOPPING said:
I had dinner the other day with a friend who knows such things, and he tells me (@robert also pls note) that apparently the EU has made it clear that the Norway EEA/EFTA option is not on the cards. The reasoning being that for an economy the size of the UK it would be ludicrous to have it in such satellite/dependency status.0 -
He said that he has not declared his decision but will do so in the next few days. Lets see but remember his committee was represented by both sides and released the reportIndigo said:
Tyrie is a EU FederalistBig_G_NorthWales said:
World war 3 was invented by the media but the important point is that it was Andrew Tyrie explaining his report and the 350 million was the Committee's biggest concernIndigo said:
Only if Remain clarify that World War 3 won't actually break out in the event of a Leave vote, neither will the economy plunge worse than it did in World War 2, and there won't be any refugee camps in Kent. I am sure there are others but that will do to be going on with.Big_G_NorthWales said:The Treasury Select Committee report pulls no punches and accuses both sides of false claims including the prospect of 3 million lost jobs on leave, but they reserve the highest criticism for leave's claim of 350 million a week saving which is untrue and misleading. Apparently the ONS is most critical and believes it should not be used. Bit difficult with it all over Boris's bus but leave need to clarify the figure which is 8.5 billion per annum, not even 10 billion as some on leave quote
MRDA.0 -
I am fairly politically savvy and knew every country holds a veto over future EU entries. I am stunned if you are telling me a government minister didn't know. I think she was lying and hoped she'd gain some votes from some people who would take her word for it. Either way she should not be holding a government post after June 23rd.rcs1000 said:
There is no excuse for lying from either side. As it happens, I think Penny Mordant was simply mistaken, rather than lying.OllyT said:With this and Mordant telling us we have no veto on Turkish entry Leave will have absolutely grounds for complaint now if they lose. They have forfeited any right to complain about anything Remain say. I suspect we are moving into pure fantasy-land from both sides for the last few weeks.
I think Leave were always going to find it hard to deliver what they were promising but they are now making it very difficult for themselves. Aren't people immediately going to expect £50m more a day spent on the NHS as soon as we Brexit and going to feel cheated when it doesn't happen?
I know both sides are playing fast and loose with truth. However what Leave are doing is quite different IMO. They seem to be very explicitly campaigning on the notion that if we Brexit we will get to spend £50m more a day on the NHS. It's a powerful argument and they will be expected to deliver on it if they win.
I also think if Leave win people will be expecting immigration to stop, if not overnight, then certainly very soon.
If Leave win (which seems 50/50) do you not think that their campaign is now creating some major hostages to fortune in a way that Remain really aren't.0 -
go and feck off I'm sure.HurstLlama said:
Really and what, pray, would they do if the UK told them to feck off?TOPPING said:
I had dinner the other day with a friend who knows such things, and he tells me (@robert also pls note) that apparently the EU has made it clear that the Norway EEA/EFTA option is not on the cards. The reasoning being that for an economy the size of the UK it would be ludicrous to have it in such satellite/dependency status.
But just as with IndyRef, if Leave were to transpire, we would have a sensible accommodative set of negotiations with the EU and its constituent parts.
I have no idea why how or if we would want that to end up as EEA/EFTA but that is the current thinking of the EU.0 -
Only if they are stupid. Repeatedly highlighting to the public how much as the EU costs, even if it isnt quite as much as Leave might have claimed is just giving a fact that attracts voters to Leave more airtime, and the "correct" number is just as voter repellent as the claimed number, ie., big.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no doubt remain will repeat the misleading nature of the bus advert ad infinitum and you can bet it gets a reality check in all the debates. It was a very unnecessary own goalLuckyguy1983 said:I'm in full agreement with Mike's assessment - it's a very silly own goal from Vote Leave.
The only silver lining is that as you say £150million does sound like a lot, so it's unlikely that Remain will want to make a huge deal out of it. Focussing the argument on exactly how many hundreds of millions the EU costs us is unlikely to be something they want to dwell on.
It would be like railway claiming that the ticket from X to Y wasn't £300 as was claimed but was only £280, most people would say "Yes, but it's still too damn much", and running around saying "Not £300, only £280, they lied" lots of times isnt going to make many sales.0 -
Leave has effectively ruled out EEA/EFTA as it involves freedom of movement, so best not to lose sleep over it.HurstLlama said:
Really and what, pray, would they do if the UK told them to feck off?TOPPING said:
I had dinner the other day with a friend who knows such things, and he tells me (@robert also pls note) that apparently the EU has made it clear that the Norway EEA/EFTA option is not on the cards. The reasoning being that for an economy the size of the UK it would be ludicrous to have it in such satellite/dependency status.0 -
As the number of nations in the EU grows so will the demand for expanded and amended QMV, while the vote share allocated to the UK will further diminish.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. NorthWales, the direction of travel is only one way, towards further integration. The best the UK ever gets is slowing that or achieving an exemption. QMV means our ability to resist integration and powers shifting from us to Brussels is significantly diminished.
We have already have substantially below the proportion that matches of our electorate, our economy and our contribution.
Our influence diminishes with every expansionary step.0 -
The one thing in life is change. The EU will have to change its direction or face forces that will break it up in time, better to be in to have influenceMorris_Dancer said:Mr. NorthWales, the direction of travel is only one way, towards further integration. The best the UK ever gets is slowing that or achieving an exemption. QMV means our ability to resist integration and powers shifting from us to Brussels is significantly diminished.
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Mr. NorthWales, that post reminds me of the Western Roman Empire. Or, indeed, the Eastern. Manuel Comnenus should've faced east more than west. After Valentinian the Great, the Western Empire declined inexorably.
I agree with you the EU, to survive long term, needs to change. But it won't. It's simply not the nature of the beast.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Chestnut, I agree entirely.
That's why Machiavelli (in his less discussed work in which he praised republics as a system of government) said confederacies couldn't have more than six members because then power gets dragged excessively from each member and the confederacy as a separate entity gains too much power.0 -
The message would be of a dishonest campaign slogan roundly condemned, not the details. When you need to start explaining you are losingIndigo said:
Only if they are stupid. Repeatedly highlighting to the public how much as the EU costs, even if it isnt quite as much as Leave might have claimed is just giving a fact that attracts voters to Leave more airtime, and the "correct" number is just as voter repellent as the claimed number, ie., big.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no doubt remain will repeat the misleading nature of the bus advert ad infinitum and you can bet it gets a reality check in all the debates. It was a very unnecessary own goalLuckyguy1983 said:I'm in full agreement with Mike's assessment - it's a very silly own goal from Vote Leave.
The only silver lining is that as you say £150million does sound like a lot, so it's unlikely that Remain will want to make a huge deal out of it. Focussing the argument on exactly how many hundreds of millions the EU costs us is unlikely to be something they want to dwell on.
It would be like railway claiming that the ticket from X to Y wasn't £300 as was claimed but was only £280, most people would say "Yes, but it's still too damn much", and running around saying "Not £300, only £280, they lied" lots of times isnt going to make many sales.0 -
Our level of influence is fairly derisory to start with as Cameron's dud deal demonstrates. It will only get worse with expansion and integration.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The one thing in life is change. The EU will have to change its direction or face forces that will break it up in time, better to be in to have influenceMorris_Dancer said:Mr. NorthWales, the direction of travel is only one way, towards further integration. The best the UK ever gets is slowing that or achieving an exemption. QMV means our ability to resist integration and powers shifting from us to Brussels is significantly diminished.
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Can we get all the leavers to sign a cast iron pledge to immediately and permanently increase the NHS budget by £50m/day (£18.25bn) if they win?
It would be pretty smart politics and could well win them the referendum.0 -
Mr. Pong, no.
Leaver are like atheists. They're united in being against something but that doesn't mean they all have the same opinion beyond that.0 -
Could you point to one success in the last 40 years that would be a significant indication that this is more than wishful thinking ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is your view but the way to deal with the EU is to remain and fight for change from withinHurstLlama said:
Oh, really? Firstly Boris could not negotiate the skin off a rice pudding. Secondly, even if he could, what you are advocating is a UK sitting on the sidelines bleating - and that strategy has worked out well so far hasn't it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Exactly my thoughts and why I believe on a remain vote a hardline eurosceptic needs to go to Brussels and would suggest David Cameron makes Boris the Minister for Europe. It would be the best of both worlds, remain but really irritate Juncker's and the eurocrates
FFS, fellows if you don't like the EU, just vote to leave. All these schemes about how we could reform it within or just bugger it up have already been tried and they have failed If you don't like the direction the EU is going in, just vote leave There really isn't a third way..0 -
Big GBig_G_NorthWales said:
David Cameron always plays to win and that is why the Conservative party are in powerYorkcity said:
Morris , I agree .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, whilst I agree with you on lack of enthusiasm, don't count your chickens yet. A 60/40 Remain win remains [ahem] eminently possible.
The most (domestically) important development in the campaigns so far has been the destruction of Cameron's position as a relatively trusted, unifying figure within the Conservative Party.
It's all very well winning a war, but if you piss off your own side so much they want to re-enact Caesar's death then one's strategy is flawed.
Michael Portillo said last night , that from all he knew about David Cameron if he was not PM ,he would voting to leave.
Both Cameron and Hague have surprised me with strong support for remain, with no balance on their previous positions.
I believe one should be open to change your opinion if the facts have changed.
However it is hard to understand what has changed so fundamentally apart from they are in or have been in control of the foreign office.
Agreed David Cameron is a winner and he is the main reason the conservatives are in power.
Blair had the ability in his pomp to make you think, and believe him, even if you had doubts on his direction of travel.
Whether Cameron is still in his pomp and able to convince the undecided will be seen.
However his leadership will be decisive in remain winning and his legacy will be a confirmed winner.
Not in the Frankel racehorse class, but a solid 3 year old derby winner class.
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But Remain would be doing the explaining, and by extension, the losing, they are explaining that 50m a day is wrong and 40m a day is right. People won't care, its a big number.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The message would be of a dishonest campaign slogan roundly condemned, not the details. When you need to start explaining you are losingIndigo said:
Only if they are stupid. Repeatedly highlighting to the public how much as the EU costs, even if it isnt quite as much as Leave might have claimed is just giving a fact that attracts voters to Leave more airtime, and the "correct" number is just as voter repellent as the claimed number, ie., big.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no doubt remain will repeat the misleading nature of the bus advert ad infinitum and you can bet it gets a reality check in all the debates. It was a very unnecessary own goalLuckyguy1983 said:I'm in full agreement with Mike's assessment - it's a very silly own goal from Vote Leave.
The only silver lining is that as you say £150million does sound like a lot, so it's unlikely that Remain will want to make a huge deal out of it. Focussing the argument on exactly how many hundreds of millions the EU costs us is unlikely to be something they want to dwell on.
It would be like railway claiming that the ticket from X to Y wasn't £300 as was claimed but was only £280, most people would say "Yes, but it's still too damn much", and running around saying "Not £300, only £280, they lied" lots of times isnt going to make many sales.0 -
Never mind that part of the said dud deal, was Cameron giving away our right to have a say in matters to do with the Eurozone, which will be the vehicle for all federalist laws in the future, in exchange for.... well nothing really.chestnut said:
Our level of influence is fairly derisory to start with as Cameron's dud deal demonstrates. It will only get worse with expansion and integration.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The one thing in life is change. The EU will have to change its direction or face forces that will break it up in time, better to be in to have influenceMorris_Dancer said:Mr. NorthWales, the direction of travel is only one way, towards further integration. The best the UK ever gets is slowing that or achieving an exemption. QMV means our ability to resist integration and powers shifting from us to Brussels is significantly diminished.
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One of the missed opportunities by Dave in his "negotiations" is that we aren't in fact the only country whose wages are undercut. My Danish and Dutch friends reported the same.
So much Dave could have done with the renegotiation that he .. didn't ><0 -
Only if Remain sign one to appoint them the government of the UK without the inconvenience of a General Election, otherwise they will be able to change nothing.Pong said:Can we get all the leavers to sign a cast iron pledge to immediately and permanently increase the NHS budget by £50m/day (£18.25bn) if they win?
It would be pretty smart politics and could well win them the referendum.0 -
Got my first Vote Leave leaflet today (have had two Remains) - quite well done, ostensibly neutral at the start ("Not sure which way to vote?"), broad-mindedly concedes there are risks either way, but then does use the £350 million/week figure and becomes solidly though not hysterically one-sided. I can imagine it swaying some don't knows.
Also anecdotally, had lunch with a mildly Eurosceptic Swiss journalist based in London, who was absolutely incredulous that it was close - thinks British withdrawal would be a total disaster paralysing all sides for years.0 -
Socialist Scott is certainly in a sweat - his retweeting is becoming increasingly desperate.SeanT said:Is this why there is a whiff of anxiety from Project Panic, and Number 10?
"Private figures seen in Number 10 repeatedly suggest Cameron needs more than six out of ten young voters to turn out on the day.
Put that into perspective. At last year’s general election, only four out of ten bothered to vote."
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/george-pascoe-watson-pm-gripped-his-own-project-fear-over-young-voters0 -
If one country withdrawing from the EU, a circumstance that it must at least contemplate given the existence of Article 50, would paralyse it for years that probably says rather more about the administration of the EU than it does about British voters.NickPalmer said:Also anecdotally, had lunch with a mildly Eurosceptic Swiss journalist based in London, who was absolutely incredulous that it was close - thinks British withdrawal would be a total disaster paralysing all sides for years.
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It is possibly to severely limit immigration through EFTA+EEA. Vote Leave is run by morons hence why it was never considered.foxinsoxuk said:
Leave has effectively ruled out EEA/EFTA as it involves freedom of movement, so best not to lose sleep over it.HurstLlama said:
Really and what, pray, would they do if the UK told them to feck off?TOPPING said:
I had dinner the other day with a friend who knows such things, and he tells me (@robert also pls note) that apparently the EU has made it clear that the Norway EEA/EFTA option is not on the cards. The reasoning being that for an economy the size of the UK it would be ludicrous to have it in such satellite/dependency status.0 -
Last night's Primetime BBC1 EU debate for young Voters was watched by less than 5% of the electorate and most of them seemed as befuddled as Tom after Jerry had hit him over the head with a mallet.0
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Remain campaigners: pls get a grip on the complacency:
"5. Complacency, sleep-walking to the exit"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/27/five-reasons-why-its-still-worth-a-punt-on-brexit/0 -
For a decisive victory yes but he is not going to get that, to scrape home the general election turnout would sufficeSeanT said:Is this why there is a whiff of anxiety from Project Panic, and Number 10?
"Private figures seen in Number 10 repeatedly suggest Cameron needs more than six out of ten young voters to turn out on the day.
Put that into perspective. At last year’s general election, only four out of ten bothered to vote."
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/george-pascoe-watson-pm-gripped-his-own-project-fear-over-young-voters0 -
I think the fact that we have thread headers suggesting that the government might disregard the views of 30m or so voters on the grounds that a campaign group that the voters didn't choose was using a figure that they probably didn't believe anyway, shows the shift of views compared to the gloataphon we had a week ago.SeanT said:
I do sense a change of mood. Beginning of the week REMAIN was all smug and gloaty. Now, suddenly, a shift in the wind.TGOHF said:
Socialist Scott is certainly in a sweat - his retweeting is becoming increasingly desperate.SeanT said:Is this why there is a whiff of anxiety from Project Panic, and Number 10?
"Private figures seen in Number 10 repeatedly suggest Cameron needs more than six out of ten young voters to turn out on the day.
Put that into perspective. At last year’s general election, only four out of ten bothered to vote."
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/george-pascoe-watson-pm-gripped-his-own-project-fear-over-young-voters0 -
Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us thenMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.
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There bloody should be a whiff of anxiety from No.10. They are sleep walking to a disaster in my opinion. Which highly paid aide thought it would be a really good idea to hold a referendum (in which the youth vote was absolutely essential for win) in mid-June? Bonkers. Absolutely bonkers. Glasto, Euro 2016, uni breaking up for summer, exams over. Jeez.SeanT said:Is this why there is a whiff of anxiety from Project Panic, and Number 10?
"Private figures seen in Number 10 repeatedly suggest Cameron needs more than six out of ten young voters to turn out on the day.
Put that into perspective. At last year’s general election, only four out of ten bothered to vote."
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/george-pascoe-watson-pm-gripped-his-own-project-fear-over-young-voters0 -
Scaremongering by Leavers that the govt would disregard the vote.Indigo said:
I think the fact that we have thread headers suggesting that the government might disregard the views of 30m or so voters on the grounds that a campaign group that the voters didn't choose was using a figure that they probably didn't believe anyway, shows the shift of views compared to the gloataphon we had a week ago.SeanT said:
I do sense a change of mood. Beginning of the week REMAIN was all smug and gloaty. Now, suddenly, a shift in the wind.TGOHF said:
Socialist Scott is certainly in a sweat - his retweeting is becoming increasingly desperate.SeanT said:Is this why there is a whiff of anxiety from Project Panic, and Number 10?
"Private figures seen in Number 10 repeatedly suggest Cameron needs more than six out of ten young voters to turn out on the day.
Put that into perspective. At last year’s general election, only four out of ten bothered to vote."
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/george-pascoe-watson-pm-gripped-his-own-project-fear-over-young-voters
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He may be incredulous, but there's a really high chance it is going to happen. Turn-out is all and Remain just aren't inspiring people to bother. Indeed, their complacency is adding to the sense of 'oh well, I think I might vote on the day, but it's probably not that necessary', so maybe...'NickPalmer said:Got my first Vote Leave leaflet today (have had two Remains) - quite well done, ostensibly neutral at the start ("Not sure which way to vote?"), broad-mindedly concedes there are risks either way, but then does use the £350 million/week figure and becomes solidly though not hysterically one-sided. I can imagine it swaying some don't knows.
Also anecdotally, had lunch with a mildly Eurosceptic Swiss journalist based in London, who was absolutely incredulous that it was close - thinks British withdrawal would be a total disaster paralysing all sides for years.0 -
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but do we know anything about turnout four weeks in advance of the opening of polls?rottenborough said:
He may be incredulous, but there's a really high chance it is going to happen. Turn-out is all and Remain just aren't inspiring people to bother. Indeed, their complacency is adding to the sense of 'oh well, I think I might vote on the day, but it's probably not that necessary', so maybe...'NickPalmer said:Got my first Vote Leave leaflet today (have had two Remains) - quite well done, ostensibly neutral at the start ("Not sure which way to vote?"), broad-mindedly concedes there are risks either way, but then does use the £350 million/week figure and becomes solidly though not hysterically one-sided. I can imagine it swaying some don't knows.
Also anecdotally, had lunch with a mildly Eurosceptic Swiss journalist based in London, who was absolutely incredulous that it was close - thinks British withdrawal would be a total disaster paralysing all sides for years.0 -
How many young people watched? That was the purpose wasn't it?chestnut said:Last night's Primetime BBC1 EU debate for young Voters was watched by less than 5% of the electorate and most of them seemed as befuddled as Tom after Jerry had hit him over the head with a mallet.
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Incredulous maybe, but just because sometbing is daft doesn't mean that it will not happen! Whatever it looks like 10 years down the line, the aftermath of a Leave vote will cause some major short term instability. I do not think it possible to disregard the vote or have a second referendum.NickPalmer said:Got my first Vote Leave leaflet today (have had two Remains) - quite well done, ostensibly neutral at the start ("Not sure which way to vote?"), broad-mindedly concedes there are risks either way, but then does use the £350 million/week figure and becomes solidly though not hysterically one-sided. I can imagine it swaying some don't knows.
Also anecdotally, had lunch with a mildly Eurosceptic Swiss journalist based in London, who was absolutely incredulous that it was close - thinks British withdrawal would be a total disaster paralysing all sides for years.
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No, I guess not, but we can make predictions based on people's past behaviour. One of which is that if they think their side has won comfortably then they don't bother to vote.EPG said:
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but do we know anything about turnout four weeks in advance of the opening of polls?rottenborough said:
He may be incredulous, but there's a really high chance it is going to happen. Turn-out is all and Remain just aren't inspiring people to bother. Indeed, their complacency is adding to the sense of 'oh well, I think I might vote on the day, but it's probably not that necessary', so maybe...'NickPalmer said:Got my first Vote Leave leaflet today (have had two Remains) - quite well done, ostensibly neutral at the start ("Not sure which way to vote?"), broad-mindedly concedes there are risks either way, but then does use the £350 million/week figure and becomes solidly though not hysterically one-sided. I can imagine it swaying some don't knows.
Also anecdotally, had lunch with a mildly Eurosceptic Swiss journalist based in London, who was absolutely incredulous that it was close - thinks British withdrawal would be a total disaster paralysing all sides for years.
So the Economist poll of polls that SeanT posted is good news in a sense if enough Remainers can see it is absolutely neck and neck.0 -
OGH is a leaver ? Who knew it ?perdix said:
Scaremongering by Leavers that the govt would disregard the vote.Indigo said:
I think the fact that we have thread headers suggesting that the government might disregard the views of 30m or so voters on the grounds that a campaign group that the voters didn't choose was using a figure that they probably didn't believe anyway, shows the shift of views compared to the gloataphon we had a week ago.SeanT said:
I do sense a change of mood. Beginning of the week REMAIN was all smug and gloaty. Now, suddenly, a shift in the wind.TGOHF said:
Socialist Scott is certainly in a sweat - his retweeting is becoming increasingly desperate.SeanT said:Is this why there is a whiff of anxiety from Project Panic, and Number 10?
"Private figures seen in Number 10 repeatedly suggest Cameron needs more than six out of ten young voters to turn out on the day.
Put that into perspective. At last year’s general election, only four out of ten bothered to vote."
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/george-pascoe-watson-pm-gripped-his-own-project-fear-over-young-voters0 -
Only if the Online Polls are accurate which is quite a gamble.SeanT said:Is this why there is a whiff of anxiety from Project Panic, and Number 10?
"Private figures seen in Number 10 repeatedly suggest Cameron needs more than six out of ten young voters to turn out on the day.
Put that into perspective. At last year’s general election, only four out of ten bothered to vote."
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/george-pascoe-watson-pm-gripped-his-own-project-fear-over-young-voters
If the Phone Polls are accurate (especially the phone polls giving Remain a lead amongst the both the elderly and ABC1s) then youth turnout is largely irrelevant.0 -
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SDHCPBrexit!HYUFD said:
Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us thenMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.
0 -
It would lose them the referendum, everyone's spent it on different things., e.g. Gove:Pong said:Can we get all the leavers to sign a cast iron pledge to immediately and permanently increase the NHS budget by £50m/day (£18.25bn) if they win?
It would be pretty smart politics and could well win them the referendum.
"We can take back the billions we give to the EU, the money which is squandered on grand parliamentary buildings and bureaucratic follies, and invest it in science and technology, schools and apprenticeships."0 -
Just had a small wager on Joni Ernst for GOP veep.
So you can all reply now as to why I've missed something obvious and it was a big mistake
0 -
But at least REMAIN have plastered the results of the negotiation all over the place ....oh wait!Pulpstar said:One of the missed opportunities by Dave in his "negotiations" is that we aren't in fact the only country whose wages are undercut. My Danish and Dutch friends reported the same.
So much Dave could have done with the renegotiation that he .. didn't ><</p>0 -
Very touched to hear that SO, thank you.SouthamObserver said:
I don't want to sound like a dick, but I do think you have been an absolute star on this site over the last few weeks. We've all lost our tempers now and again, but you have really helped me to frame my thinking and have challenged me. MaxPB is another, as are RCS, Richard Tyndall. Sean Fear and Alanbrooke. It's been a real education. Whatever happens next month I am grateful for that.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very interesting and fair post, SO.SouthamObserver said:
The referendum has got a lot of us thinking about the EU for the first time. Up until just a few months ago I thought I was going to sit it all out. But I found myself moving to Remain quite strongly when I began to consider the issues for the first time. Over the course of the campaign, though, and thanks in no small part to exchanges on here. I have drifted a lot more towards scepticism and the EU currently being the least worst option. I think that if EEA/EFTA were still a realistic option I might even be persuadable on Leave this time round. But that is not going to happen.Casino_Royale said:
Which won't happen.SeanT said:
It's internecine. REMAINIACS on the right (and we're speaking mainly about the right) have passim.Pulpstar said:
I don't get the enthusiasm from certain remainers here. Most people I know are looking forward to potentially voting remain with about as much enthusiasm as using a suppository after eating 50 hard boiled eggs.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Of course the traitorous pig-dogs of the REMAIN camp are completely deluded - they will be the ones suffering, if REMAIN wins - paradoxically - but that is what they think.
One of things (like Sean Fear) value.
It's perfectly clear the europhile Left of the party were trying to call the eurosceptic bluff with this referendum, win a 65-35 victory (or more) and close this issue down for decades.
That isn't going to happen. Instead, they may have just let the genie out the bottle.
Brexit was a fringe position even as recently as four years ago.
At the very least, I'd say, a lot of us will be looking a lot more closely at developments inside the EU than we have in the past. If the other member states do as you believe
Thank you.
Kind words from you and others make all our (generally) very civilised discussions worthwhile.
I think we all have more influence on each other on this forum than we perhaps care to admit.
Which is why I come back to pb.com time after time, and why it's a privilege to be a member of our community here.0 -
Most Remainers (and Leavers) except those in places like this will probably be unaware of what the state of the polling is except in a very general sense. I would expect in most elections and other voters the same core people vote every time, the "civic duty" sort, to which you can add in the politically engaged. The rest probably only turn out if it is something they are particularly exercised about (which in this case favours Leave). The question to some extent is the overlap between the first two groups and the last, probably quite high in the case of EU Ref.rottenborough said:So the Economist poll of polls that SeanT posted is good news in a sense if enough Remainers can see it is absolutely neck and neck.
0 -
I saw a "Labour In for Britain" leaflet yesterday. It is notable that the Labour Party is not only declaring for In but is also distributing leaflets to make it crystal clear to all and sundry where it stands.NickPalmer said:Got my first Vote Leave leaflet today (have had two Remains) - quite well done, ostensibly neutral at the start ("Not sure which way to vote?"), broad-mindedly concedes there are risks either way, but then does use the £350 million/week figure and becomes solidly though not hysterically one-sided. I can imagine it swaying some don't knows.
Also anecdotally, had lunch with a mildly Eurosceptic Swiss journalist based in London, who was absolutely incredulous that it was close - thinks British withdrawal would be a total disaster paralysing all sides for years.
In terms of what happens post referendum, it is an enormous mistake for the Labour Party to have so associated itself with one side of the debate. The consequence of the Labour Party rebranding itself as the "Labour In Party" is that it is almost inviting those who have traditionally supported Labour but take a strongly contrary view on EU membership to bugger off and vote for someone else in future. The Conservatives have avoided this trap.
I think it is a moot point whether Labour In leaflets will persuade more people to vote In than the numbers of 2015 Labour voters who are put off from voting Labour again. Something not dissimilar happened in Scotland in 2014. I fear (because I am on the same side of the political spectrum as you) that we are about to see the Scottish process repeat itself in England in 2016, even if not on the same scale.
0 -
I got £10 @ 25/1 I think, sold out £15 @ 11/1 or something.rottenborough said:Just had a small wager on Joni Ernst for GOP veep.
So you can all reply now as to why I've missed something obvious and it was a big mistake0 -
Jesus we get this every hour never mind every day. The only spending on anything after a notional BrExit will be proposed by the elected government and approved by parliament. Leave will not be spending a farthing.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It would lose them the referendum, everyone's spent it on different things., e.g. Gove:Pong said:Can we get all the leavers to sign a cast iron pledge to immediately and permanently increase the NHS budget by £50m/day (£18.25bn) if they win?
It would be pretty smart politics and could well win them the referendum.
"We can take back the billions we give to the EU, the money which is squandered on grand parliamentary buildings and bureaucratic follies, and invest it in science and technology, schools and apprenticeships."0 -
It's still £50m/day (if we accept that) that the national government can only spend once. There is limited value in the choice alone.Indigo said:
Jesus we get this every hour never mind every day. The only spending on anything after a notional BrExit will be proposed by the elected government and approved by parliament. Leave will not be spending a farthing.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It would lose them the referendum, everyone's spent it on different things., e.g. Gove:Pong said:Can we get all the leavers to sign a cast iron pledge to immediately and permanently increase the NHS budget by £50m/day (£18.25bn) if they win?
It would be pretty smart politics and could well win them the referendum.
"We can take back the billions we give to the EU, the money which is squandered on grand parliamentary buildings and bureaucratic follies, and invest it in science and technology, schools and apprenticeships."
0 -
Don't forget to squeeze'em until they squeal!rottenborough said:Just had a small wager on Joni Ernst for GOP veep.
So you can all reply now as to why I've missed something obvious and it was a big mistake
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9Y24MFOfFU0 -
I've got to hand it to them, the 50 Million Euro2016 competition is quite smart from vote leave.0
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Currently 14 on BF.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I got £10 @ 25/1 I think, sold out £15 @ 11/1 or something.rottenborough said:Just had a small wager on Joni Ernst for GOP veep.
So you can all reply now as to why I've missed something obvious and it was a big mistake0 -
Bloody lucky given how awful the Leave side were.chestnut said:Last night's Primetime BBC1 EU debate for young Voters was watched by less than 5% of the electorate and most of them seemed as befuddled as Tom after Jerry had hit him over the head with a mallet.
Ominous. I am very nervous about these debates, unless Dan Hannan is in them.0 -
Hear, hear.Casino_Royale said:
Very touched to hear that SO, thank you.SouthamObserver said:
I don't want to sound like a dick, but I do think you have been an absolute star on this site over the last few weeks. We've all lost our tempers now and again, but you have really helped me to frame my thinking and have challenged me. MaxPB is another, as are RCS, Richard Tyndall. Sean Fear and Alanbrooke. It's been a real education. Whatever happens next month I am grateful for that.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very interesting and fair post, SO.SouthamObserver said:
snipCasino_Royale said:
Which won't happen.SeanT said:
It's internecine. REMAINIACS on the right (and we're speaking mainly about the right) have passim.Pulpstar said:
I don't get the enthusiasm from certain remainers here. Most people I know are looking forward to potentially voting remain with about as much enthusiasm as using a suppository after eating 50 hard boiled eggs.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Of course the traitorous pig-dogs of the REMAIN camp are completely deluded - they will be the ones suffering, if REMAIN wins - paradoxically - but that is what they think.
One of things (like Sean Fear) value.
It's perfectly clear the europhile Left of the party were trying to call the eurosceptic bluff with this referendum, win a 65-35 victory (or more) and close this issue down for decades.
That isn't going to happen. Instead, they may have just let the genie out the bottle.
Brexit was a fringe position even as recently as four years ago.
At the very least, I'd say, a lot of us will be looking a lot more closely at developments inside the EU than we have in the past. If the other member states do as you believe
Thank you.
Kind words from you and others make all our (generally) very civilised discussions worthwhile.
I think we all have more influence on each other on this forum than we perhaps care to admit.
Which is why I come back to pb.com time after time, and why it's a privilege to be a member of our community here.0 -
This sort of campaigning although disreputable has a pretty good track record. Blair spent years getting Brown to reannounce the same money for a dozen different projects, and when they ran out of ideas for that, to reannounce the same project all over again with a different name. Voters seemed to fall for it all the time.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It's still £50m/day (if we accept that) that the national government can only spend once. There is limited value in the choice alone.Indigo said:
Jesus we get this every hour never mind every day. The only spending on anything after a notional BrExit will be proposed by the elected government and approved by parliament. Leave will not be spending a farthing.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It would lose them the referendum, everyone's spent it on different things., e.g. Gove:Pong said:Can we get all the leavers to sign a cast iron pledge to immediately and permanently increase the NHS budget by £50m/day (£18.25bn) if they win?
It would be pretty smart politics and could well win them the referendum.
"We can take back the billions we give to the EU, the money which is squandered on grand parliamentary buildings and bureaucratic follies, and invest it in science and technology, schools and apprenticeships."0 -
'Who killed the Labour Party?' is the first episodeScott_P said: 0 -
I see our potential immigrants are getting a bit feisty
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/27/shots-fired-calais-hundreds-afghan-sudanese-migrants-go-war/0 -
Hey, look, a tombstone...rottenborough said:'Who killed the Labour Party?' is the first episode
0 -
LOLScott_P said:
Hey, look, a tombstone...rottenborough said:'Who killed the Labour Party?' is the first episode
0 -
BBC repeated it again today and I watched about 5 minutes. It just confirmed my view last night that I wasted an hour of my life. Although Diane James didn't do herself justice, she looked thoroughly fed up. Liam Fox was good but you could see he was thinking "I can't believe I agreed to this."rottenborough said:
How many young people watched? That was the purpose wasn't it?chestnut said:Last night's Primetime BBC1 EU debate for young Voters was watched by less than 5% of the electorate and most of them seemed as befuddled as Tom after Jerry had hit him over the head with a mallet.
These formats are so stale.
0 -
The real prize for Europe here is Brexit breaking the back of the federalist anti-democratic EU empire (which has had its day) and establishing a new vision of a Europe of free self-governing and colloborating national democracies.HYUFD said:
Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us thenMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.
0 -
Reason number 6. From today, we have a more level playing field in that Government departments will no longer on Cameron's instructions be pumping out a daily coordinated set of spurious "fact based" reports to grab the headlines.rottenborough said:Remain campaigners: pls get a grip on the complacency:
"5. Complacency, sleep-walking to the exit"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/27/five-reasons-why-its-still-worth-a-punt-on-brexit/0 -
I went off her after watching a few videos. There's something Palinesque about her intonation. McSally also lacks gravitas.rottenborough said:Just had a small wager on Joni Ernst for GOP veep.
So you can all reply now as to why I've missed something obvious and it was a big mistake0 -
Report showing that the greatest increase in trade with the EU is from countries outside the EU rather than countries within the EU. http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/economicalwiththetruth.pdf0
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Why does cynical me think the only thing that will change in your sentence is "co-ordinated"?Wulfrun_Phil said:
Reason number 6. From today, we have a more level playing field in that Government departments will no longer on Cameron's instructions be pumping out a daily coordinated set of spurious "fact based" reports to grab the headlines.rottenborough said:Remain campaigners: pls get a grip on the complacency:
"5. Complacency, sleep-walking to the exit"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/27/five-reasons-why-its-still-worth-a-punt-on-brexit/
0 -
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!0
-
While I do enjoy a little genial trolling as much as the next bloke, the debate on here is far more serious and substantive than in most of the country. Perhaps it has been a little less so since the May elections passed.Casino_Royale said:
Very touched to hear that SO, thank you.SouthamObserver said:
I don't want to sound like a dick, but I do think you have been an absolute star on this site over the last few weeks. We've all lost our tempers now and again, but you have really helped me to frame my thinking and have challenged me. MaxPB is another, as are RCS, Richard Tyndall. Sean Fear and Alanbrooke. It's been a real education. Whatever happens next month I am grateful for that.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very interesting and fair post, SO.SouthamObserver said:Casino_Royale said:
Which won't happen.SeanT said:
It's internecine. REMAINIACS on the right (and we're speaking mainly about the right) have passim.Pulpstar said:
I don't get the enthusiasm from certain remainers here. Most people I know are looking forward to potentially voting remain with about as much enthusiasm as using a suppository after eating 50 hard boiled eggs.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Of course the traitorous pig-dogs of the REMAIN camp are completely deluded - they will be the ones suffering, if REMAIN wins - paradoxically - but that is what they think.
One of things (like Sean Fear) value.
It's perfectly clear the europhile Left of the party were trying to call the eurosceptic bluff with this referendum, win a 65-35 victory (or more) and close this issue down for decades.
That isn't going to happen. Instead, they may have just let the genie out the bottle.
Brexit was a fringe position even as recently as four years ago.
Thank you.
Kind words from you and others make all our (generally) very civilised discussions worthwhile.
I think we all have more influence on each other on this forum than we perhaps care to admit.
Which is why I come back to pb.com time after time, and why it's a privilege to be a member of our community here.
I found both last nights Youth debate and QT very poor in comparison, on both sides of the question.
One thing that I am finding frustrating is finding decent politicalbetting tips though. I think the best one is on an early election in 2016 or 17, as I cannot see the government lasting whatever the result. Maybe it is just me being hopeful, because otherwise (apart from Alien vs Predator for POTUS) there looks to be no major politicalbetting events for years.
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I'm concerned that Nigel will be in them, but will have had a couple of drinks (sharpeners) in the green room.Casino_Royale said:
Bloody lucky given how awful the Leave side were.chestnut said:Last night's Primetime BBC1 EU debate for young Voters was watched by less than 5% of the electorate and most of them seemed as befuddled as Tom after Jerry had hit him over the head with a mallet.
Ominous. I am very nervous about these debates, unless Dan Hannan is in them.0 -
A quick look at gov.uk seems to show a marked lack of links to the Government advertising on the referendum.MarqueeMark said:
Why does cynical me think the only thing that will change in your sentence is "co-ordinated"?Wulfrun_Phil said:
Reason number 6. From today, we have a more level playing field in that Government departments will no longer on Cameron's instructions be pumping out a daily coordinated set of spurious "fact based" reports to grab the headlines.rottenborough said:Remain campaigners: pls get a grip on the complacency:
"5. Complacency, sleep-walking to the exit"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/27/five-reasons-why-its-still-worth-a-punt-on-brexit/
0 -
I've seen it described elsewhere as the kind of programme they would have hidden away on BBC3 if they hadn't closed the thingCasino_Royale said:
Bloody lucky given how awful the Leave side were.chestnut said:Last night's Primetime BBC1 EU debate for young Voters was watched by less than 5% of the electorate and most of them seemed as befuddled as Tom after Jerry had hit him over the head with a mallet.
Ominous. I am very nervous about these debates, unless Dan Hannan is in them.
Leave will always be on a hiding to nothing with the younger generation on a BBC chaired show. Remain will get the same treatment off the older generation.
It's the middle aged who will decide this. 35-55.0 -
Sorry to bang on about this, but EFTA/EEA as a destination would have made that much more likely, especially as it would be the natural next step for Denmark, and Sweden. Indeed, I think it is highly likely (maybe even probable) that EFTA/EEA could have been rebranded as "Associate Member" or somesuch, so outside the political structure, the CAP, the CFP, the ECJ etc.Casino_Royale said:
The real prize for Europe here is Brexit breaking the back of the federalist anti-democratic EU empire (which has had its day) and establishing a new vision of a Europe of free self-governing and colloborating national democracies.HYUFD said:
Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us thenMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.
Also, Leave would be 10 points clear, if the decision had been to go with EFTA/EEA from the start.0 -
I've just worked out the average of the 16 polls on OGH's list with fieldwork starting on or after 1 May. It's Remain 52 Leave 48.
And the average of the five most recent ones, with fieldwork beginning on or after 18 May is ..... Remain 52 Leave 48.
These polls exclude Northern Ireland and overseas electors,both of which can be assumed to be heavily Remain (a poll of NI earlier this week was 61% Remain IIRC). If my maths is correct a 60-40 NI vote would add roughly 0.75% to the Remain lead in the UK (perhaps more if turnout in NI was higher than GB, as it usually is).
Bearing this in mind it seems reasonable to say that Remain are currently maintaining a lead of about 5 points. And the last poll to show Leave in a winning position after adding in NI and overseas electors was ICM of 13-15 May.0 -
Turnout in NI will be lower this time because they don't have to turn out to keep the other ones out.anothernick said:I've just worked out the average of the 16 polls on OGH's list with fieldwork starting on or after 1 May. It's Remain 52 Leave 48.
And the average of the five most recent ones, with fieldwork beginning on or after 18 May is ..... Remain 52 Leave 48.
These polls exclude Northern Ireland and overseas electors,both of which can be assumed to be heavily Remain (a poll of NI earlier this week was 61% Remain IIRC). If my maths is correct a 60-40 NI vote would add roughly 0.75% to the Remain lead in the UK (perhaps more if turnout in NI was higher than GB, as it usually is).
Bearing this in mind it seems reasonable to say that Remain are currently maintaining a lead of about 5 points. And the last poll to show Leave in a winning position after adding in NI and overseas electors was ICM of 13-15 May.0 -
I think Ernst is a strong possibility.williamglenn said:
I went off her after watching a few videos. There's something Palinesque about her intonation. McSally also lacks gravitas.rottenborough said:Just had a small wager on Joni Ernst for GOP veep.
So you can all reply now as to why I've missed something obvious and it was a big mistake
Iowa was democratic last time but it was tight, she might help bring it in.
Ex-military with experience as a company commander in Kuwait
Husband still in the military (Rangers)
Much more mainstream conservative than Trump
Rural background to complement Trump's city slicker image
NRA Member
Religious
Female
0 -
That's a very misleading set of countries to compare, if you don't mind me saying. Exports from Russia, Norway, Canada, Saudi Araba and the UAE to the EU went up massively in the period because the price of oil went from $12 to $150 over the period!weejonnie said:Report showing that the greatest increase in trade with the EU is from countries outside the EU rather than countries within the EU. http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/economicalwiththetruth.pdf
His choice of years (1992 to 2013) also brackets the lows and the highs for the oil price (and for other commodities too). It seems almost cynical.0 -
Why has PB comments exploded with Breitbart links recently?
Is it doing a publicity push in the Guidosphere part of Twitter that gets incessantly retweeted on here?
Or is PB comments itself becoming more like Breitbart?0 -
I am not a fan of Breitbart because they have posted a number of stories that are simply not true. They are almost American and seem to exist to create a feedback loop of outrage.EPG said:Why has PB comments exploded with Breitbart links recently?
Is it doing a publicity push in the Guidosphere part of Twitter that gets incessantly retweeted on here?
Or is PB comments itself becoming more like Breitbart?0 -
The Eurozone, non Eurozone divide may not hold in the same block for everCasino_Royale said:
The real prize for Europe here is Brexit breaking the back of the federalist anti-democratic EU empire (which has had its day) and establishing a new vision of a Europe of free self-governing and colloborating national democracies.HYUFD said:
Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us thenMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.
0 -
Actually I think that TV debate exposure to the young can only benefit Leave - it puts both sides on a level playing field, before a demographic segment where 'in' is usually just a lazy default response. If it raises at least some questions about that lazy response it's a very useful exercise.chestnut said:
I've seen it described elsewhere as the kind of programme they would have hidden away on BBC3 if they hadn't closed the thingCasino_Royale said:
Bloody lucky given how awful the Leave side were.chestnut said:Last night's Primetime BBC1 EU debate for young Voters was watched by less than 5% of the electorate and most of them seemed as befuddled as Tom after Jerry had hit him over the head with a mallet.
Ominous. I am very nervous about these debates, unless Dan Hannan is in them.
Leave will always be on a hiding to nothing with the younger generation on a BBC chaired show. Remain will get the same treatment off the older generation.
It's the middle aged who will decide this. 35-55.0 -
I was with you until this bit, which I just dont believe.rcs1000 said:Also, Leave would be 10 points clear, if the decision had been to go with EFTA/EEA from the start.
Remain would still be banging on about the same things, even if they were more obviously a lie to the cognoscenti than they are now. Project Fear would be unchanged, because most of the voters they are playing to would not know that EFTA covered them in many case. At the same time a lot of the anti-immigration vote, some of the kippers, lots of Old Labour, some of the Tory right, would all decide that the risk wasnt worth the reward since they were not getting the key thing they wanted, and would have either stayed at home, or voted Remain.
0 -
There are many more divisions within the EU than just EZ/nonEZ (though that is one). Contributors v recipients, prudents v spendthrifts, socialists v conservatives v liberals v radicals, federalists v non-federalists, enthusiasts v sceptics, Atlanticists v continentals, agriculture v finance - and so on. Divisions between and within governments can be exploited to benefit by playing the game well.HYUFD said:
The Eurozone, non Eurozone divide may not hold in the same block for everCasino_Royale said:
The real prize for Europe here is Brexit breaking the back of the federalist anti-democratic EU empire (which has had its day) and establishing a new vision of a Europe of free self-governing and colloborating national democracies.HYUFD said:
Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us thenMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.
0 -
I think you should look again.williamglenn said:
I went off her after watching a few videos. There's something Palinesque about her intonation. McSally also lacks gravitas.rottenborough said:Just had a small wager on Joni Ernst for GOP veep.
So you can all reply now as to why I've missed something obvious and it was a big mistake
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpDVf_PDeVQ0 -
You and I are just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. But I know a lot of business people - guys who've started companies with a hundred employees and 20m of sales - who are going to reluctantly vote Remain. They are EFTA > EU > CO.Indigo said:
I was with you until this bit, which I just dont believe.rcs1000 said:Also, Leave would be 10 points clear, if the decision had been to go with EFTA/EEA from the start.
Remain would still be banging on about the same things, even if they were more obviously a lie to the cognoscenti than they are now. Project Fear would be unchanged, because most of the voters they are playing to would not know that EFTA covered them in many case. At the same time a lot of the anti-immigration vote, some of the kippers, lots of Old Labour, some of the Tory right, would all decide that the risk wasnt worth the reward since they were not getting the key thing they wanted, and would have either stayed at home, or voted Remain.
I would also point out that EFTA/EEA is *incredibly* popular in Norway, Iceland and Switzerland. I saw a poll from Norway* that asked: do you want (a) to join the EU, (b) to keep the current arrangement, or (c) to leave EFTA/EEA. C was less than 10%! 65% of people liked EFTA/EEA.
I also don't think it would have negatively affected working class turnout, because you can substantively reduce low skilled immigration. Switzerland, for example, pays no benefits at all to migrant workers. So, businesses like Macdonalds have to pay prevailing wage rates (EUR25/hour in Zurich), and their unemployment is basically zero.
* Admittedly from about three years ago0 -
5 of the original EFTA countries including us are now members of the EU. The others joined after us, so it is not obvious as to me why they would be inclined to revert to their former status. Inparticular were we to revert to EFTA membership we would completely dominate it with 80% of the population and about 2/3 of the GDP. It would be a far more dominant position than the EZ has within the EU.rcs1000 said:
Sorry to bang on about this, but EFTA/EEA as a destination would have made that much more likely, especially as it would be the natural next step for Denmark, and Sweden. Indeed, I think it is highly likely (maybe even probable) that EFTA/EEA could have been rebranded as "Associate Member" or somesuch, so outside the political structure, the CAP, the CFP, the ECJ etc.Casino_Royale said:
The real prize for Europe here is Brexit breaking the back of the federalist anti-democratic EU empire (which has had its day) and establishing a new vision of a Europe of free self-governing and colloborating national democracies.HYUFD said:
Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us thenMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.
Also, Leave would be 10 points clear, if the decision had been to go with EFTA/EEA from the start.
I think the EU will continue to evolve, whether or not we are in it, but I think that there is little appetite for expansion either geographically or in terms of powers. The proposed EU army is a curiosity, but one that does not bother me. I can see a role for such a force in terms of border defence, and also supporting the baltics in particular, but cannot get excited about it either way.
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I think the problem with that line of argument is you're essentially saying that if there were a consensus around the EEA option then it would be saleable to the public. As there isn't such a consensus it's purely hypothetical and you could make the same argument about any of the other options.rcs1000 said:
You and I are just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. But I know a lot of business people - guys who've started companies with a hundred employees and 20m of sales - who are going to reluctantly vote Remain. They are EFTA > EU > CO.Indigo said:
I was with you until this bit, which I just dont believe.rcs1000 said:Also, Leave would be 10 points clear, if the decision had been to go with EFTA/EEA from the start.
Remain would still be banging on about the same things, even if they were more obviously a lie to the cognoscenti than they are now. Project Fear would be unchanged, because most of the voters they are playing to would not know that EFTA covered them in many case. At the same time a lot of the anti-immigration vote, some of the kippers, lots of Old Labour, some of the Tory right, would all decide that the risk wasnt worth the reward since they were not getting the key thing they wanted, and would have either stayed at home, or voted Remain.0 -
Has anyone noticed that DAVID Miliband is now 3rd favourite on Betfair for next Labour leader (after McDonnell and Jarvis).
NB. In terms of back price, not lay. But even so, he's right there in the mix.0 -
A posting which unfortunately tends to show a lack of understanding of EFTA. We would not dominate it in the way you claim because unlike the EU it requires unanimity of decisions and does not base voting rights on proportion of the population. British membership of EFTA would give a lot more power to the organisation without diminishing the power of the other countries within the organisation.foxinsoxuk said:
5 of the original EFTA countries including us are now members of the EU. The others joined after us, so it is not obvious as to me why they would be inclined to revert to their former status. Inparticular were we to revert to EFTA membership we would completely dominate it with 80% of the population and about 2/3 of the GDP. It would be a far more dominant position than the EZ has within the EU.rcs1000 said:
Sorry to bang on about this, but EFTA/EEA as a destination would have made that much more likely, especially as it would be the natural next step for Denmark, and Sweden. Indeed, I think it is highly likely (maybe even probable) that EFTA/EEA could have been rebranded as "Associate Member" or somesuch, so outside the political structure, the CAP, the CFP, the ECJ etc.Casino_Royale said:
The real prize for Europe here is Brexit breaking the back of the federalist anti-democratic EU empire (which has had its day) and establishing a new vision of a Europe of free self-governing and colloborating national democracies.HYUFD said:
Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us thenMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.
Also, Leave would be 10 points clear, if the decision had been to go with EFTA/EEA from the start.
I think the EU will continue to evolve, whether or not we are in it, but I think that there is little appetite for expansion either geographically or in terms of powers. The proposed EU army is a curiosity, but one that does not bother me. I can see a role for such a force in terms of border defence, and also supporting the baltics in particular, but cannot get excited about it either way.0 -
Mr. L, that seems peculiar given David Miliband isn't an MP and doesn't appear to want to return to being one.0
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She has personal experience on the A10 issue, and it is a hell of a good ground attack aircraft, being incredibly robust to groundfire.RodCrosby said:
I think you should look again.williamglenn said:
I went off her after watching a few videos. There's something Palinesque about her intonation. McSally also lacks gravitas.rottenborough said:Just had a small wager on Joni Ernst for GOP veep.
So you can all reply now as to why I've missed something obvious and it was a big mistake
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpDVf_PDeVQ
Air force people always prefer pointy nose fast jets to practical proven systems...0
