politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE’s repeated refusal to accept that its £50m a day clai

Sunil_Prasannan said:

chestnut said:

There is £25bn in the kitty from overseas aid and EU contributions.

Leave's big mistake is going so small on what they can do and how much they have to work with to ensure smooth transition.

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/732634881029726208

Absolutely dsgraceful! Why are we giving all that money to India?

nunu said:

taffys said:

Seeing the debates yesterday it really struck me that class is a big factor in this referendum. Working class woman whose disabled mum can't get a bungalow being lectured by well heeled middle class lefty student.

One class of people looking down on another for complaining that immigration is having big impact on their lives.

Who outnumbers who and how many will vote? anyone's guess.

Eactly my thoughts. Thats why Leave has made a huge mistake not making Labour leave politicians as front and centre of their campaign instead of bloody Boris Johnson. Jeez.

Couldn't agree more. The likes of Gisela Stuart and Frank Field are far more capable of appealing across party lines than the likes of Gove, IDS and even Johnson are not.

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Can this be translated as. 'Increasing doubt about accuracy of phone polls, big uptick in bets on Brexit, oh eck Leave might actually win this?

Yet where the money is going, Remain are still circa 80% on course to win.

You mean where the money is going in low stakes explicit political betting markets, vs where the money is going in the real world, high stakes financial markets?

Well given the strengthening pound it is pretty clear that the markets are betting on Remain also. Good for me as I have to go to Greece at the end of the month and I haven't paid the hotel bill yet.

I'm off to Greece tomorrow

Lucky you

malcolmg said:

tlg86 said:

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

tpfkar said:

I can't see a referendum result being overturned, however close.

But if the Leave campaign are "stretching the actualite" to the point where the Statistics Authority have to step in to correct, where's the power to stop them lying? The Leave campaign seem quite happy to blissfully ignore being caught out like this, and there's no way a letter from the ONS is going to get the same publicity as the figure on the side of the bus. So where's the power to compel them to take back such a misleading claim? I know the response will be to look at some of the nonsense the Remain campaign has come out with, but that's just a diversion - how do we stop an out and out lie when the people propogating it don't show any respect for the ONS?

If lies and inaccuracies are pointed out, then what is the problem? Voters have been told in advance of going to the polls and can make their choices with that in mind. There would be absolutely no basis whatsoever for overturning a result in such circumstances.

Question is why they are not calling out the absolute whoppers that the government and their lapdogs are coming out with.

Because it's speculative bs. It's just an opinion about what might happen. No one can say it's definitely rubbish.

Same as Leave so why are they biased to one side , ie lapdogs to Government. Do they think people are stupid.

These people deal in the here and now. Theoretically leave could make all sorts of claims about how much more we'll have to do at the EU if we vote to Remain, and the stats authority could do nothing about it. I suppose the claims about Turkey joining are similar.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Two further consequence of Leave choosing to run with a headline figure on (exaggerated) gross rather than net contributions are that:
1. It's then difficult without being utterly contradictory to use the (true) claim that we pay in about 3 times as much to the EU as we get back in EU payments. The Remain campaign is going to great lengths to highlight all of the projects funded by various EU contributions, and the "3 times in than what we get back" is the obvious rebuttal to all that.
2. It also makes it harder for them to focus on the fact that it's the EU not the UK that dictates where those EU payments are and are not applied and the questionable nature of much of those payments on a harmonised one-size-fits-all basis (e.g. precisely how the EU chooses to deploy its farm subsidies in support of large scale agribusiness should be more than a little contentious.)

The Sunil on Sunday's "Be LEAVE" campaign has always used the net £8.5 billion (2015) figure.

What you are failing to point out is what excellent value for money we get!

Apart from Greece, the recipient countries are growing and modernising into excellent markets for our industries, with diaspora communities providing the gateway for these.

foxinsoxuk said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Two further consequence of Leave choosing to run with a headline figure on (exaggerated) gross rather than net contributions are that:
1. It's then difficult without being utterly contradictory to use the (true) claim that we pay in about 3 times as much to the EU as we get back in EU payments. The Remain campaign is going to great lengths to highlight all of the projects funded by various EU contributions, and the "3 times in than what we get back" is the obvious rebuttal to all that.
2. It also makes it harder for them to focus on the fact that it's the EU not the UK that dictates where those EU payments are and are not applied and the questionable nature of much of those payments on a harmonised one-size-fits-all basis (e.g. precisely how the EU chooses to deploy its farm subsidies in support of large scale agribusiness should be more than a little contentious.)

The Sunil on Sunday's "Be LEAVE" campaign has always used the net £8.5 billion (2015) figure.

What you are failing to point out is what excellent value for money we get!

Apart from Greece, the recipient countries are growing and modernising into excellent markets for our industries, with diaspora communities providing the gateway for these.

Naught but REMAIN propaganda!

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/736191107420282881

Sunil_Prasannan said:

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/736191107420282881

I don't get the enthusiasm from certain remainers here. Most people I know are looking forward to potentially voting remain with about as much enthusiasm as using a suppository after eating 50 hard boiled eggs.

@SeanT
Can I send you an email?

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

QTWTAIN.

Ministers could no more refuse to accept the result on those grounds than Leave could refuse to accept a Remain result because it is based on project Fear.

That said I agree (and said weeks ago) that Leave were daft going with the £350 million a week figure. They should have knocked off the rebate.

Of course the IFS figure is also bollocks. At a minimum it is £168 million a week for last year based on our net contribution. More realistically the figure is £288 million a week since we should use the gross not net figure. You don't calculate your tax bill based on what you get back in services. Nor should we for the EU.

I agree that the £350 million a week figure should not have been used. They should have knocked off the rebate etc. Notably Andrea Leadsom refers to just £10billion a year net. A lower number, yet one that is unarguable on fact grounds. £10 billion is a lot of money to most voters.

Which voters in particular is £10bn not a lot of money to?

TheScreamingEagles said:

What will cause Leave damage is that Sarah Wollaston, a Doctor and Leaver herself has said she won't be doing anything that has this inaccurate stat.

If your own side says the figure is dodgy....

To be honest, she does that with any Government policy she doesn't like as well.

She plays by her own rules, and always has, which is why she won her original primary.

On-topic, it cuts both ways:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36397732

"And it criticises the Remain campaign's claim the cost of imports could rise by "at least" £11bn if the UK leaves."

On topic, I'd love to see the Government try and defy a 51/49 Leave victory.

If my reading of the British electorate is correct it'd be the one thing certain to lead a big swing from the Remain to the Leave camp.

It would also see a dispatch of the leadership that'd make the murder of Caesar look like Dignitas.

England probably have enough now - for both Sri Lanka innings.

"We're ignoring this result because our opponent told fibs."

Might set a bit of a precedent.....

Much better to expose the fibs...

Plato_Says said:

Pulpstar said:

Well seeing as the £50 mill compo is free to enter, the expected return is at least positive, if small.

https://www.50million.uk/Competition/Share/ad494015-e56f-414a-946a-6df3d908f5d9 is my entry !

Two donors have funded the competition - Mr Wheeler and AN Other I presume. It's a great PR stunt.

There are 51 fixtures. If you assume that the probability of correctly the result of each match is about 0.5, then the probability of predicting all of them correctly is 0.5^51 i.e. about 0.000000000000000444.
So with a prize of £50,000,000 and say 1 million people entering, the expected mean payout is abour 2.2p.

So the insurance policy that Vote Leave will have taken out to cover themselves won't have required very deep pockets. To cover the premium a bit over 1p would be needed from each of the two donors, before allowing for the insurer's profit margin.

Pulpstar said:

England probably have enough now - for both Sri Lanka innings.

Don't get ahead of yourself, we have Woakes bowling for us...

Pulpstar said:

Well seeing as the £50 mill compo is free to enter, the expected return is at least positive, if small.

https://www.50million.uk/Competition/Share/ad494015-e56f-414a-946a-6df3d908f5d9 is my entry !

I was thinking of writing a little Python script that combined the electoral roll with every possible permutation of scores, so someone (somewhere) would win the 50 million.

Then I realised that, assuming that for each game, each team could score between 0 and 5 goals, that there are 25 possible options for every game. 25^51 is spectacularly huge number: even if my script was able to enter 10 predictions a second, it would still take more than 100,000 years to submit all the possible results. And I think it's a fair bet their server would have run out of capacity before then. Not to mention that I might have missed the start of the tournament.

Edit to add: I guessed the 100,000 years. I was actually out by a few orders of magnitude*. 25^51 / (10*60*60*24*365) has more than 65 zeros. And that's the number of years.

* I admit, 59 is more than a few.

Mr. Royale, whilst I agree with you on lack of enthusiasm, don't count your chickens yet. A 60/40 Remain win remains [ahem] eminently possible.

The most (domestically) important development in the campaigns so far has been the destruction of Cameron's position as a relatively trusted, unifying figure within the Conservative Party.

It's all very well winning a war, but if you piss off your own side so much they want to re-enact Caesar's death then one's strategy is flawed.

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Two further consequence of Leave choosing to run with a headline figure on (exaggerated) gross rather than net contributions are that:
1. It's then difficult without being utterly contradictory to use the (true) claim that we pay in about 3 times as much to the EU as we get back in EU payments. The Remain campaign is going to great lengths to highlight all of the projects funded by various EU contributions, and the "3 times in than what we get back" is the obvious rebuttal to all that.
2. It also makes it harder for them to focus on the fact that it's the EU not the UK that dictates where those EU payments are and are not applied and the questionable nature of much of those payments on a harmonised one-size-fits-all basis (e.g. precisely how the EU chooses to deploy its farm subsidies in support of large scale agribusiness should be more than a little contentious.)

The Sunil on Sunday's "Be LEAVE" campaign has always used the net £8.5 billion (2015) figure.

What you are failing to point out is what excellent value for money we get!

Apart from Greece, the recipient countries are growing and modernising into excellent markets for our industries, with diaspora communities providing the gateway for these.

No. Stagnant and shrinking markets with dire economic performance in many parts of it.

Try again.

The Eurozone grew faster the first quarter of the year than either UK or USA.

The non-EZ EU countries in Eastern Europe are the major recipients and growing at some of the fastest rates in Europe.

Lol. Pathetic.

I have a stray grey hair on my bald head growing really strongly this last month.

Therefore, I am not bald.

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/736169448063766528

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What will cause Leave damage is that Sarah Wollaston, a Doctor and Leaver herself has said she won't be doing anything that has this inaccurate stat.

If your own side says the figure is dodgy....

To be honest, she does that with any Government policy she doesn't like as well.

She plays by her own rules, and always has, which is why she won her original primary.

I must admit, if I could vote for both sides to lose, I would.

Failing that, it's Leave.

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Well seeing as the £50 mill compo is free to enter, the expected return is at least positive, if small.

https://www.50million.uk/Competition/Share/ad494015-e56f-414a-946a-6df3d908f5d9 is my entry !

I was thinking of writing a little Python script that combined the electoral roll with every possible permutation of scores, so someone (somewhere) would win the 50 million.

Then I realised that, assuming that for each game, each team could score between 0 and 5 goals, that there are 25 possible options for every game. 25^61 is spectacularly huge number: even if my script was able to enter 10 predictions a second, it would still take more than 100,000 years to submit all the possible results. And I think it's a fair bet their server would have run out of capacity before then. Not to mention that I might have missed the start of the tournament.

It doesn't need "correct score" - which improves the chances a little ALOT ! (Though they are still "small")

OK. There are 36 group games, which can end in draws, and 15 knock out games that cannot. So:

3^36 * 2^15

Which - at a rate of 10 entries a second - would still take around 1,000,000,000,000 years to enter.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Two further consequence of Leave choosing to run with a headline figure on (exaggerated) gross rather than net contributions are that:
1. It's then difficult without being utterly contradictory to use the (true) claim that we pay in about 3 times as much to the EU as we get back in EU payments. The Remain campaign is going to great lengths to highlight all of the projects funded by various EU contributions, and the "3 times in than what we get back" is the obvious rebuttal to all that.
2. It also makes it harder for them to focus on the fact that it's the EU not the UK that dictates where those EU payments are and are not applied and the questionable nature of much of those payments on a harmonised one-size-fits-all basis (e.g. precisely how the EU chooses to deploy its farm subsidies in support of large scale agribusiness should be more than a little contentious.)

The Sunil on Sunday's "Be LEAVE" campaign has always used the net £8.5 billion (2015) figure.

What you are failing to point out is what excellent value for money we get!

Apart from Greece, the recipient countries are growing and modernising into excellent markets for our industries, with diaspora communities providing the gateway for these.

No. Stagnant and shrinking markets with dire economic performance in many parts of it.

Try again.

The Eurozone grew faster the first quarter of the year than either UK or USA.

The non-EZ EU countries in Eastern Europe are the major recipients and growing at some of the fastest rates in Europe.

Following your advice, I made the mistake of searching this table for EU countries from the top down, before reverting to bottom up.

https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/countries-highest-gdp-growth

GDP recovery since 2008 in the EU has been slower than in any other trading block or major country in the world economy.

Point of order, those are forecasts for 2015. As it turned out, pretty much the only countries that exceeded growth forecasts for '15 were in the Eurozone*.

* Not that the numbers were particularly good. And almost all the outperformance can be put down to the lower price of commodities, which lowers imports, and therefore increases GDP.

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

MarkHopkins said:

@SeanT
Can I send you an email?

tomknoxbooks@gmail.com

if you squint at that address it looks like: Tom at Oxbooks; or Tom Bollox; or Tom Knox is a bollox commentator on Brexit.

Or something.

You should have gone to Specsavers

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Well seeing as the £50 mill compo is free to enter, the expected return is at least positive, if small.

https://www.50million.uk/Competition/Share/ad494015-e56f-414a-946a-6df3d908f5d9 is my entry !

I was thinking of writing a little Python script that combined the electoral roll with every possible permutation of scores, so someone (somewhere) would win the 50 million.

Then I realised that, assuming that for each game, each team could score between 0 and 5 goals, that there are 25 possible options for every game. 25^61 is spectacularly huge number: even if my script was able to enter 10 predictions a second, it would still take more than 100,000 years to submit all the possible results. And I think it's a fair bet their server would have run out of capacity before then. Not to mention that I might have missed the start of the tournament.

It doesn't need "correct score" - which improves the chances a little ALOT ! (Though they are still "small")

OK. There are 36 group games, which can end in draws, and 15 knock out games that cannot. So:

3^36 * 2^15

Which - at a rate of 10 entries a second - would still take around 1,000,000,000,000 years to enter.

The Lloyds underwriter will have a hell of a shock if it cops mind

rcs1000 said:

tpfkar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Well seeing as the £50 mill compo is free to enter, the expected return is at least positive, if small.

https://www.50million.uk/Competition/Share/ad494015-e56f-414a-946a-6df3d908f5d9 is my entry !

I was thinking of writing a little Python script that combined the electoral roll with every possible permutation of scores, so someone (somewhere) would win the 50 million.

Then I realised that, assuming that for each game, each team could score between 0 and 5 goals, that there are 25 possible options for every game. 25^61 is spectacularly huge number: even if my script was able to enter 10 predictions a second, it would still take more than 100,000 years to submit all the possible results. And I think it's a fair bet their server would have run out of capacity before then. Not to mention that I might have missed the start of the tournament.

It doesn't need "correct score" - which improves the chances a little ALOT ! (Though they are still "small")

OK. There are 36 group games, which can end in draws, and 15 knock out games that cannot. So:

3^36 * 2^15

Which - at a rate of 10 entries a second - would still take around 1,000,000,000,000 years to enter.

Good luck sorting out that many unique email addresses before you start as well!

That's actually easy due to a clever gmail feature.

Did you know that you can add things to your gmail address and they still get to you. So,

rcs1000+asda@gmail.com and
rcs1000+tesco@gmail.com both get to me

So, you could simply have rcs1000+asasvcsdfswe@gmail.com, with the second part generated programatically.

You could reduce the number of possibilities by picking the (say) 50 million most likely results, based on the performance of the teams.

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Well seeing as the £50 mill compo is free to enter, the expected return is at least positive, if small.

https://www.50million.uk/Competition/Share/ad494015-e56f-414a-946a-6df3d908f5d9 is my entry !

I was thinking of writing a little Python script that combined the electoral roll with every possible permutation of scores, so someone (somewhere) would win the 50 million.

Then I realised that, assuming that for each game, each team could score between 0 and 5 goals, that there are 25 possible options for every game. 25^61 is spectacularly huge number: even if my script was able to enter 10 predictions a second, it would still take more than 100,000 years to submit all the possible results. And I think it's a fair bet their server would have run out of capacity before then. Not to mention that I might have missed the start of the tournament.

It doesn't need "correct score" - which improves the chances a little ALOT ! (Though they are still "small")

OK. There are 36 group games, which can end in draws, and 15 knock out games that cannot. So:

3^36 * 2^15

Which - at a rate of 10 entries a second - would still take around 1,000,000,000,000 years to enter.

The Lloyds underwriter will have a hell of a shock if it cops mind

What do you think they paid for the insurance? 10k?

Won't it have to be declared ?

Easiest {insert figure} ever made

Northallerton by-elections:

A strong showing from Yorkshire First. Keep that up and we'll have a Yindyref in a decade's time.

As an aside, Northallerton is full of charity shops with good selections of second hand books - I've twice come away with almost too many to carry, and even managed to pick up something by a certain Mr Thomas.

Rexel56 said:

tpfkar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Well seeing as the £50 mill compo is free to enter, the expected return is at least positive, if small.

https://www.50million.uk/Competition/Share/ad494015-e56f-414a-946a-6df3d908f5d9 is my entry !

I was thinking of writing a little Python script that combined the electoral roll with every possible permutation of scores, so someone (somewhere) would win the 50 million.

Then I realised that, assuming that for each game, each team could score between 0 and 5 goals, that there are 25 possible options for every game. 25^61 is spectacularly huge number: even if my script was able to enter 10 predictions a second, it would still take more than 100,000 years to submit all the possible results. And I think it's a fair bet their server would have run out of capacity before then. Not to mention that I might have missed the start of the tournament.

It doesn't need "correct score" - which improves the chances a little ALOT ! (Though they are still "small")

OK. There are 36 group games, which can end in draws, and 15 knock out games that cannot. So:

3^36 * 2^15

Which - at a rate of 10 entries a second - would still take around 1,000,000,000,000 years to enter.

Good luck sorting out that many unique email addresses before you start as well!

I'm afraid you have to resolve teams ending on the same points in the group stages in order to determine who plays whom in the round of 16. Good luck with modelling that.

That's a standard four from six permutations problem, surely, so it could be added. But yes, that does mean there is another few orders of magnitude of possibility.

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/736191107420282881

I don't get the enthusiasm from certain remainers here. Most people I know are looking forward to potentially voting remain with about as much enthusiasm as using a suppository after eating 50 hard boiled eggs.

It's internecine. REMAINIACS on the right (and we're speaking mainly about the right) have loathed and feared the sceptics for decades (and vice versa). They will see a victory as a great advance, in that civil war, perhaps even a permanent triumph - and will hope to purge the party of the sceptics as a result. See articles by Matthew Parris, passim.

Of course the traitorous pig-dogs of the REMAIN camp are completely deluded - they will be the ones suffering, if REMAIN wins - paradoxically - but that is what they think.

Which won't happen.

One of things (like Sean Fear) I'm taking away from this referendum is that people really don't like the EU. If all it does is just wakes people up to all the facts about how crap it really is to the UK, then that has value.

It's perfectly clear the europhile Left of the party were trying to call the eurosceptic bluff with this referendum, win a 65-35 victory (or more) and close this issue down for decades.

That isn't going to happen. Instead, they may have just let the genie out the bottle.

Brexit was a fringe position even as recently as four years ago.

If you are as sure as you seem to be, this should be a big payday for you.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/brexit-odds-live-updates-on-percentage-chance-of-uk-leaving-the-eu/
From the article in the link:
"The below is a live chart, which will update every time you revisit this page. It shows (at the time of writing) an 18 per cent chance of Leave."

rcs1000 said:

Rexel56 said:

tpfkar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Well seeing as the £50 mill compo is free to enter, the expected return is at least positive, if small.

https://www.50million.uk/Competition/Share/ad494015-e56f-414a-946a-6df3d908f5d9 is my entry !

I was thinking of writing a little Python script that combined the electoral roll with every possible permutation of scores, so someone (somewhere) would win the 50 million.

Then I realised that, assuming that for each game, each team could score between 0 and 5 goals, that there are 25 possible options for every game. 25^61 is spectacularly huge number: even if my script was able to enter 10 predictions a second, it would still take more than 100,000 years to submit all the possible results. And I think it's a fair bet their server would have run out of capacity before then. Not to mention that I might have missed the start of the tournament.

It doesn't need "correct score" - which improves the chances a little ALOT ! (Though they are still "small")

OK. There are 36 group games, which can end in draws, and 15 knock out games that cannot. So:

3^36 * 2^15

Which - at a rate of 10 entries a second - would still take around 1,000,000,000,000 years to enter.

Good luck sorting out that many unique email addresses before you start as well!

I'm afraid you have to resolve teams ending on the same points in the group stages in order to determine who plays whom in the round of 16. Good luck with modelling that.

That's a standard four from six permutations problem, surely, so it could be added. But yes, that does mean there is another few orders of magnitude of possibility.

Not to mention the fact that as soon as you won you would be ruled invalid.

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/736191107420282881

I don't get the enthusiasm from certain remainers here. Most people I know are looking forward to potentially voting remain with about as much enthusiasm as using a suppository after eating 50 hard boiled eggs.

It's internecine. REMAINIACS on the right (and we're speaking mainly about the right) have loathed and feared the sceptics for decades (and vice versa). They will see a victory as a great advance, in that civil war, perhaps even a permanent triumph - and will hope to purge the party of the sceptics as a result. See articles by Matthew Parris, passim.

Of course the traitorous pig-dogs of the REMAIN camp are completely deluded - they will be the ones suffering, if REMAIN wins - paradoxically - but that is what they think.

Which won't happen.

One of things (like Sean Fear) I'm taking away from this referendum is that people really don't like the EU. If all it does is just wakes people up to all the facts about how crap it really is to the UK, then that has value.

It's perfectly clear the europhile Left of the party were trying to call the eurosceptic bluff with this referendum, win a 65-35 victory (or more) and close this issue down for decades.

That isn't going to happen. Instead, they may have just let the genie out the bottle.

Brexit was a fringe position even as recently as four years ago.

The referendum has got a lot of us thinking about the EU for the first time. Up until just a few months ago I thought I was going to sit it all out. But I found myself moving to Remain quite strongly when I began to consider the issues for the first time. Over the course of the campaign, though, and thanks in no small part to exchanges on here. I have drifted a lot more towards scepticism and the EU currently being the least worst option. I think that if EEA/EFTA were still a realistic option I might even be persuadable on Leave this time round. But that is not going to happen.

At the very least, I'd say, a lot of us will be looking a lot more closely at developments inside the EU than we have in the past. If the other member states do as you believe they will and misread a vote to Remain I can see us being out within a relatively short period of time.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/736191107420282881

I don't get the enthusiasm from certain remainers here. Most people I know are looking forward to potentially voting remain with about as much enthusiasm as using a suppository after eating 50 hard boiled eggs.

It's internecine. REMAINIACS on the right (and we're speaking mainly about the right) have loathed and feared the sceptics for decades (and vice versa). They will see a victory as a great advance, in that civil war, perhaps even a permanent triumph - and will hope to purge the party of the sceptics as a result. See articles by Matthew Parris, passim.

Of course the traitorous pig-dogs of the REMAIN camp are completely deluded - they will be the ones suffering, if REMAIN wins - paradoxically - but that is what they think.

Which won't happen.

One of things (like Sean Fear) I'm taking away from this referendum is that people really don't like the EU. If all it does is just wakes people up to all the facts about how crap it really is to the UK, then that has value.

It's perfectly clear the europhile Left of the party were trying to call the eurosceptic bluff with this referendum, win a 65-35 victory (or more) and close this issue down for decades.

That isn't going to happen. Instead, they may have just let the genie out the bottle.

Brexit was a fringe position even as recently as four years ago.

The referendum has got a lot of us thinking about the EU for the first time. Up until just a few months ago I thought I was going to sit it all out. But I found myself moving to Remain quite strongly when I began to consider the issues for the first time. Over the course of the campaign, though, and thanks in no small part to exchanges on here. I have drifted a lot more towards scepticism and the EU currently being the least worst option. I think that if EEA/EFTA were still a realistic option I might even be persuadable on Leave this time round. But that is not going to happen.

At the very least, I'd say, a lot of us will be looking a lot more closely at developments inside the EU than we have in the past. If the other member states do as you believe they will and misread a vote to Remain I can see us being out within a relatively short period of time.

That's a very interesting and fair post, SO.

Thank you.

So it was Poole where the lady had difficulties in findig a council house. A few years ago I remember a man chaining himself to the railings of the Poole Council main office. He had a wife and four children, living in his parent's home, while waiting on the council list. I believe up to a third of council houses in some areas are illegally sublet by tenants that have returned home.

PAW said:

So it was Poole where the lady had difficulties in findig a council house. A few years ago I remember a man chaining himself to the railings of the Poole Council main office. He had a wife and four children, living in his parent's home, while waiting on the council list. I believe up to a third of council houses in some areas are illegally sublet by tenants that have returned home.

It was Slough where a year or two ago there were huge compaints that immigrants were "jumping" the queue as members of the public were findings that whole rows of council houses were all being lived in by immigrants.

When the media investigated it was overwhelming illegal subletting and basically the council just shrugged their shoulders and went well we don't have time to investigate. The thing was that not only were they subletting, but they were illegally subletting as HOMs and basically letting each room to a family, so 3-4 families in one family home.

SouthamObserver said:

The referendum has got a lot of us thinking about the EU for the first time. Up until just a few months ago I thought I was going to sit it all out. But I found myself moving to Remain quite strongly when I began to consider the issues for the first time. Over the course of the campaign, though, and thanks in no small part to exchanges on here. I have drifted a lot more towards scepticism and the EU currently being the least worst option. I think that if EEA/EFTA were still a realistic option I might even be persuadable on Leave this time round. But that is not going to happen.

At the very least, I'd say, a lot of us will be looking a lot more closely at developments inside the EU than we have in the past. If the other member states do as you believe they will and misread a vote to Remain I can see us being out within a relatively short period of time.

I really don't think that is going to happen, Mr. Observer. Just look at the people/organisations lined up to keep us in - ain't one of them that gives a toss about the ordinary member of the public, the Gillian Duffy's of this world. They were hornswaggled into having this referendum and are, I believe, jolly cross at Cameron for getting them into this mess. I very much doubt that we will be allowed a second go a few years down the line, if ever.

If all that is keeping you from voting leave now is uncertainty as to whether we will go for a EEA/EFTA option or a bespoke deal, and a deal there will certainly be (we are too big and too important a market for there not to be one) then isn't that an argument to be had once the basic decision has been made. No one can predict exactly what will be negotiated by the people doing the negotiation will be the civil service, all the players that are in post now, and the present Conservative government, plus or minus one or two individuals (who will have to get their negotiated deal through the commons and the Lords). I am not sure I like it but that is just me and it seems a very low risk option from where I sit.

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/736191107420282881

I don't get the enthusiasm from certain remainers here. Most people I know are looking forward to potentially voting remain with about as much enthusiasm as using a suppository after eating 50 hard boiled eggs.

It's internecine. REMAINIACS on the right (and we're speaking mainly about the right) have passim.

Of course the traitorous pig-dogs of the REMAIN camp are completely deluded - they will be the ones suffering, if REMAIN wins - paradoxically - but that is what they think.

Which won't happen.

One of things (like Sean Fear) value.

It's perfectly clear the europhile Left of the party were trying to call the eurosceptic bluff with this referendum, win a 65-35 victory (or more) and close this issue down for decades.

That isn't going to happen. Instead, they may have just let the genie out the bottle.

Brexit was a fringe position even as recently as four years ago.

The referendum has got a lot of us thinking about the EU for the first time. Up until just a few months ago I thought I was going to sit it all out. But I found myself moving to Remain quite strongly when I began to consider the issues for the first time. Over the course of the campaign, though, and thanks in no small part to exchanges on here. I have drifted a lot more towards scepticism and the EU currently being the least worst option. I think that if EEA/EFTA were still a realistic option I might even be persuadable on Leave this time round. But that is not going to happen.

At the very least, I'd say, a lot of us will be looking a lot more closely at developments inside the EU than we have in the past. If the other member states do as you believe they will and misread a vote to Remain I can see us being out within a relatively short period of time.

That's a very interesting and fair post, SO.

Thank you.

I don't want to sound like a dick, but I do think you have been an absolute star on this site over the last few weeks. We've all lost our tempers now and again, but you have really helped me to frame my thinking and have challenged me. MaxPB is another, as are RCS, Richard Tyndall. Sean Fear and Alanbrooke. It's been a real education. Whatever happens next month I am grateful for that.

FrancisUrquhart said:

PAW said:

So it was Poole where the lady had difficulties in findig a council house. A few years ago I remember a man chaining himself to the railings of the Poole Council main office. He had a wife and four children, living in his parent's home, while waiting on the council list. I believe up to a third of council houses in some areas are illegally sublet by tenants that have returned home.

It was Slough where a year or two ago there were huge compaints that immigrants were "jumping" the queue as members of the public were findings that whole rows of council houses were all being lived in by immigrants.

When the media investigated it was overwhelming illegal subletting and basically the council just shrugged their shoulders and went well we don't have time to investigate. The thing was that not only were they subletting, but they were illegally subletting as HOMs and basically letting each room to a family, so 3-4 families in one family home.

Surely subletting a council house is (a) against the terms of the lease, and (b) almost certainly resulting in undeclared income (a criminal offence).

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

PAW said:

So it was Poole where the lady had difficulties in findig a council house. A few years ago I remember a man chaining himself to the railings of the Poole Council main office. He had a wife and four children, living in his parent's home, while waiting on the council list. I believe up to a third of council houses in some areas are illegally sublet by tenants that have returned home.

It was Slough where a year or two ago there were huge compaints that immigrants were "jumping" the queue as members of the public were findings that whole rows of council houses were all being lived in by immigrants.

When the media investigated it was overwhelming illegal subletting and basically the council just shrugged their shoulders and went well we don't have time to investigate. The thing was that not only were they subletting, but they were illegally subletting as HOMs and basically letting each room to a family, so 3-4 families in one family home.

Surely subletting a council house is (a) against the terms of the lease, and (b) almost certainly resulting in undeclared income (a criminal offence).

Yeap....but the council just shrugged their shoulders...and mumbled about cuts and lack of resources to check up on these things.

Indigo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The Treasury Select Committee report pulls no punches and accuses both sides of false claims including the prospect of 3 million lost jobs on leave, but they reserve the highest criticism for leave's claim of 350 million a week saving which is untrue and misleading. Apparently the ONS is most critical and believes it should not be used. Bit difficult with it all over Boris's bus but leave need to clarify the figure which is 8.5 billion per annum, not even 10 billion as some on leave quote

Only if Remain clarify that World War 3 won't actually break out in the event of a Leave vote, neither will the economy plunge worse than it did in World War 2, and there won't be any refugee camps in Kent. I am sure there are others but that will do to be going on with.

World war 3 was invented by the media but the important point is that it was Andrew Tyrie explaining his report and the 350 million was the Committee's biggest concern

Moeen Ali needs to show a bit of quality here.

I'm in full agreement with Mike's assessment - it's a very silly own goal from Vote Leave.

The only silver lining is that as you say £150million does sound like a lot, so it's unlikely that Remain will want to make a huge deal out of it. Focussing the argument on exactly how many hundreds of millions the EU costs us is unlikely to be something they want to dwell on.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Exactly my thoughts and why I believe on a remain vote a hardline eurosceptic needs to go to Brussels and would suggest David Cameron makes Boris the Minister for Europe. It would be the best of both worlds, remain but really irritate Juncker's and the eurocrates

Oh, really? Firstly Boris could not negotiate the skin off a rice pudding. Secondly, even if he could, what you are advocating is a UK sitting on the sidelines bleating - and that strategy has worked out well so far hasn't it.

FFS, fellows if you don't like the EU, just vote to leave. All these schemes about how we could reform it within or just bugger it up have already been tried and they have failed If you don't like the direction the EU is going in, just vote leave There really isn't a third way..

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

I don't get the enthusiasm from certain remainers here. Most people I know are looking forward to potentially voting remain with about as much enthusiasm as using a suppository after eating 50 hard boiled eggs.

It's internecine. REMAINIACS on the right (and we're speaking mainly about the right) have loathed and feared the sceptics for decades (and vice versa). They will see a victory as a great advance, in that civil war, perhaps even a permanent triumph - and will hope to purge the party of the sceptics as a result. See articles by Matthew Parris, passim.

Of course the traitorous pig-dogs of the REMAIN camp are completely deluded - they will be the ones suffering, if REMAIN wins - paradoxically - but that is what they think.

Which won't happen.

One of things (like Sean Fear) I'm taking away from this referendum is that people really don't like the EU. If all it does is just wakes people up to all the facts about how crap it really is to the UK, then that has value.

It's perfectly clear the europhile Left of the party were trying to call the eurosceptic bluff with this referendum, win a 65-35 victory (or more) and close this issue down for decades.

That isn't going to happen. Instead, they may have just let the genie out the bottle.

Brexit was a fringe position even as recently as four years ago.

The referendum has got a lot of us thinking about the EU for the first time. Up until just a few months ago I thought I was going to sit it all out. But I found myself moving to Remain quite strongly when I began to consider the issues for the first time. Over the course of the campaign, though, and thanks in no small part to exchanges on here. I have drifted a lot more towards scepticism and the EU currently being the least worst option. I think that if EEA/EFTA were still a realistic option I might even be persuadable on Leave this time round. But that is not going to happen.

At the very least, I'd say, a lot of us will be looking a lot more closely at developments inside the EU than we have in the past. If the other member states do as you believe they will and misread a vote to Remain I can see us being out within a relatively short period of time.

I had dinner the other day with a friend who knows such things, and he tells me (@robert also pls note) that apparently the EU has made it clear that the Norway EEA/EFTA option is not on the cards. The reasoning being that for an economy the size of the UK it would be ludicrous to have it in such satellite/dependency status.

I don't believe that our membership of EFTA would need the blessing of the EU.

rcs1000 said:

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

I don't get the enthusiasm from certain remainers here. Most people I know are looking forward to potentially voting remain with about as much enthusiasm as using a suppository after eating 50 hard boiled eggs.

It's internecine. REMAINIACS on the right (and we're speaking mainly about the right) have loathed and feared the sceptics for decades (and vice versa). They will see a victory as a great advance, in that civil war, perhaps even a permanent triumph - and will hope to purge the party of the sceptics as a result. See articles by Matthew Parris, passim.

Of course the traitorous pig-dogs of the REMAIN camp are completely deluded - they will be the ones suffering, if REMAIN wins - paradoxically - but that is what they think.

Which won't happen.

One of things (like Sean Fear) I'm taking away from this referendum is that people really don't like the EU. If all it does is just wakes people up to all the facts about how crap it really is to the UK, then that has value.

It's perfectly clear the europhile Left of the party were trying to call the eurosceptic bluff with this referendum, win a 65-35 victory (or more) and close this issue down for decades.

That isn't going to happen. Instead, they may have just let the genie out the bottle.

Brexit was a fringe position even as recently as four years ago.

The referendum has got a lot of us thinking about the EU for the first time. Up until just a few months ago I thought I was going to sit it all out. But I found myself moving to Remain quite strongly when I began to consider the issues for the first time. Over the course of the campaign, though, and thanks in no small part to exchanges on here. I have drifted a lot more towards scepticism and the EU currently being the least worst option. I think that if EEA/EFTA were still a realistic option I might even be persuadable on Leave this time round. But that is not going to happen.

At the very least, I'd say, a lot of us will be looking a lot more closely at developments inside the EU than we have in the past. If the other member states do as you believe they will and misread a vote to Remain I can see us being out within a relatively short period of time.

I had dinner the other day with a friend who knows such things, and he tells me (@robert also pls note) that apparently the EU has made it clear that the Norway EEA/EFTA option is not on the cards. The reasoning being that for an economy the size of the UK it would be ludicrous to have it in such satellite/dependency status.

I don't believe that our membership of EFTA would need the blessing of the EU.

It does not.