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System Posts: 12,578
edited May 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE’s repeated refusal to accept that its £50m a day claim is untrue could cause problems if it wins

This has been used consistently by the outers and it has formed the basis for the core message. It has been saying that “£50m a day saved” could go into the NHS yet the amount of the actual cash available would be far less. Post election the INNERS would have very strong ground for complaint and you could just see Cameron dismissing a LEAVE outcome.

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Comments

  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    First!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    As opposed to Remain saying we will suffer another Great Depression if we leave!
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    4,562nd*

    *This figure may be officially misleading...
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Yay another bad jacketing of Brexit thread.

    What a suprise.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    QTWTAIN.

    Ministers could no more refuse to accept the result on those grounds than Leave could refuse to accept a Remain result because it is based on project Fear.

    That said I agree (and said weeks ago) that Leave were daft going with the £350 million a week figure. They should have knocked off the rebate.

    Of course the IFS figure is also bollocks. At a minimum it is £168 million a week for last year based on our net contribution. More realistically the figure is £288 million a week since we should use the gross not net figure. You don't calculate your tax bill based on what you get back in services. Nor should we for the EU.
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    edited May 2016
    This beyond desperate, Ministers would get eaten alive by the public if they tried to dismiss a referendum on such a flimsy pretext, the public know both sides are lying through their teeth and a claim that the other side is lying more, and that it isn't fair, isn't going to wash

    Never mind that the side that made claims commonly understood to include, inter alia, suggestions of World War 3, economic meltdown worse than that caused by World War 2, and refugee camps in Kent frankly is going to be laughed at, and the subsequently voted out, by the public if they try and bin the referendum result.
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    They can't dismiss any more than leave can with the dodgy £4300 stats put forward by remain

    http://news.sky.com/story/1702853/brexit-warnings-wrong-on-trade-think-tank
  • tpfkar
    tpfkar Posts: 1,578
    I can't see a referendum result being overturned, however close.

    But if the Leave campaign are "stretching the actualite" to the point where the Statistics Authority have to step in to correct, where's the power to stop them lying? The Leave campaign seem quite happy to blissfully ignore being caught out like this, and there's no way a letter from the ONS is going to get the same publicity as the figure on the side of the bus. So where's the power to compel them to take back such a misleading claim? I know the response will be to look at some of the nonsense the Remain campaign has come out with, but that's just a diversion - how do we stop an out and out lie when the people propogating it don't show any respect for the ONS?
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    There is £25bn in the kitty from overseas aid and EU contributions.

    Leave's big mistake is going so small on what they can do and how much they have to work with to ensure smooth transition.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Whether there would be any cash available is an entirely moot point. If leaving the EU leads to a fall in GDP and a reduction in the government's tax take - a scenario that many leavers except is possible, but is a price worth paying - then the likelihood is that we will be out of pocket and the money sent to the EU would instead be used to plug gaps created in current spending plans.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    The public doesn't like being deceived. See the the Lib Dem for details.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    'The basis for ministers to dismiss such a referendum result perhaps?'

    Maybe not going so well for Remain as they would like us to believe ?
  • Pro_Rata
    Pro_Rata Posts: 5,690
    On topic: Daft, daft line of argument by Mike here. Afraid I'm with Indigo and Richard_T on this one.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2016
    Net Contribution = £8.5bn
    Gross Contribution (post rebate) = £13bn
    Gross Contribution (without rebate) = £18bn

    Imagine another Blair like rebate surrender. What's the bill?

    The UK government has form for losing rebates and opt-outs.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TGOHF said:

    Yay another bad jacketing of Brexit thread.

    What a suprise.

    You don't have to come here. If you don't like it then I'm sure there are other sites.

  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    david_herdson said:

    The public doesn't like being deceived. See the the Lib Dem for details.

    Ouch :lol:

    And Cameron's trust ratings.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    SouthamObserver said:

    Whether there would be any cash available is an entirely moot point. If leaving the EU leads to a fall in GDP and a reduction in the government's tax take - a scenario that many leavers except is possible, but is a price worth paying - then the likelihood is that we will be out of pocket and the money sent to the EU would instead be used to plug gaps created in current spending plans.

    Stop crying in to your wallet.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    For those betting on the US election, an interesting piece from politico.com, generally more friendly to Dems than the GOP:
    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-election-hillary-clinton-campaign-loses-defeated-donald-trump-213924

    Some of the scenarios are a real stretch. At the moment, for example, there is no way that I can see Trump winning in Wisconsin, where the GOP hate him. But the general drift of the article is plausible, especially given Hillary's expertise in running low energy, piss poor campaigns and her extraordinarily high negatives on trustworthiness with the 40% of the electorate who make up Independents.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Alanbrooke said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Whether there would be any cash available is an entirely moot point. If leaving the EU leads to a fall in GDP and a reduction in the government's tax take - a scenario that many leavers except is possible, but is a price worth paying - then the likelihood is that we will be out of pocket and the money sent to the EU would instead be used to plug gaps created in current spending plans.

    Stop crying in to your wallet.

    Like you I am well off enough not to have to worry about it. Others are less fortunate.

  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    david_herdson said:

    The public doesn't like being deceived. See the the Lib Dem for details.

    Both official campaigns have been equally guilty of that and I think whoever wins is basically going to be in a lot of trouble.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited May 2016
    @david_herdson

    'The public doesn't like being deceived. See the the Lib Dem for details.'


    Don't think the public like being told by an un-elected bureaucracy on how £8 billion of their taxes can be spent.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    tpfkar said:

    I can't see a referendum result being overturned, however close.

    But if the Leave campaign are "stretching the actualite" to the point where the Statistics Authority have to step in to correct, where's the power to stop them lying? The Leave campaign seem quite happy to blissfully ignore being caught out like this, and there's no way a letter from the ONS is going to get the same publicity as the figure on the side of the bus. So where's the power to compel them to take back such a misleading claim? I know the response will be to look at some of the nonsense the Remain campaign has come out with, but that's just a diversion - how do we stop an out and out lie when the people propogating it don't show any respect for the ONS?

    Sir Andrew Dilnott is not a judge making a finding of fact, nor a referee running a sporting contest.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    There are lies,
    Damned lies,
    Boris & Osborne.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    MikeSmithson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Yay another bad jacketing of Brexit thread.

    What a suprise.

    You don't have to come here. If you don't like it then I'm sure there are other sites.

    LOL, Mike. You know you write these headlines and headers to get precisely this reaction ...
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Peak UKIP again in the final by election result of last night

    Northallerton South (Hambleton) result:
    CON: 48.0% (-0.5)
    LAB: 20.6% (-4.8)
    UKIP: 19.7% (-6.5)
    YFIR: 11.8% (+11.8)
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I remember Peter Kellner's remarks on what would happen in the event of a Brexit vote. The inners wouldn't take it lying down.
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    I think the campaigns know what they're doing when they over-egg their numbers. Either the voters believe them as is or their opponent shows up saying, "It's not 100x, it's only x", which helps publicize the claim about it costing x.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    chestnut said:

    Net Contribution = £8.5bn
    Gross Contribution (post rebate) = £13bn
    Gross Contribution (without rebate) = £18bn

    Imagine another Blair like rebate surrender. What's the bill?

    The UK government has form for losing rebates and opt-outs.

    Actually our rebate is only 10% now thanks to a certain A Blair. The gross contribution is £18bn and the post rebate contribution is £16.2bn, after that the EU spends around £6bn on grants, CA subsidies and development funds making our net contribution around £10bn, about £200m per week. One could suggest that we may have a cheaper agricultural subsidies programme but I would use the £200m figure if I was I charge of Leave.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Whether there would be any cash available is an entirely moot point. If leaving the EU leads to a fall in GDP and a reduction in the government's tax take - a scenario that many leavers except is possible, but is a price worth paying - then the likelihood is that we will be out of pocket and the money sent to the EU would instead be used to plug gaps created in current spending plans.

    Stop crying in to your wallet.

    Like you I am well off enough not to have to worry about it. Others are less fortunate.

    Then let their salaries rise like Sir Staurt said.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    OGH. I do not understand why you feature a quote from LEAVE as untrue when the REMAIN/Treasury "£4,000 per household" has also been quoted as "should not be used" by ONS?
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    tpfkar said:

    I can't see a referendum result being overturned, however close.

    But if the Leave campaign are "stretching the actualite" to the point where the Statistics Authority have to step in to correct, where's the power to stop them lying? The Leave campaign seem quite happy to blissfully ignore being caught out like this, and there's no way a letter from the ONS is going to get the same publicity as the figure on the side of the bus. So where's the power to compel them to take back such a misleading claim? I know the response will be to look at some of the nonsense the Remain campaign has come out with, but that's just a diversion - how do we stop an out and out lie when the people propogating it don't show any respect for the ONS?

    If lies and inaccuracies are pointed out, then what is the problem? Voters have been told in advance of going to the polls and can make their choices with that in mind. There would be absolutely no basis whatsoever for overturning a result in such circumstances.

  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    john_zims said:

    @david_herdson

    'The public doesn't like being deceived. See the the Lib Dem for details.'


    Don't think the public like being told by an un-elected bureaucracy on how £8 billion of their taxes can be spent.

    Actually, that would be how £13 billion of their taxes can be spent (see chestnut for gross contributions), including how £8 billion of their taxes can be given away to other people.
  • Paul_Bedfordshire
    Paul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Can this be translated as. 'Increasing doubt about accuracy of phone polls, big uptick in bets on Brexit, oh eck Leave might actually win this?
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    QTWTAIN.

    Ministers could no more refuse to accept the result on those grounds than Leave could refuse to accept a Remain result because it is based on project Fear.

    That said I agree (and said weeks ago) that Leave were daft going with the £350 million a week figure. They should have knocked off the rebate.

    Of course the IFS figure is also bollocks. At a minimum it is £168 million a week for last year based on our net contribution. More realistically the figure is £288 million a week since we should use the gross not net figure. You don't calculate your tax bill based on what you get back in services. Nor should we for the EU.

    I agree that the £350 million a week figure should not have been used. They should have knocked off the rebate etc. Notably Andrea Leadsom refers to just £10billion a year net. A lower number, yet one that is unarguable on fact grounds. £10 billion is a lot of money to most voters.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    Does anyone have figures for EU country gross contributions to the EU budget by percentage of GDP? Where would the UK come on that table?
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    david_herdson said:

    The public doesn't like being deceived. See the the Lib Dem for details.

    Both official campaigns have been equally guilty of that and I think whoever wins is basically going to be in a lot of trouble.
    Every General Election consists of both sides lying to the electorate about how they will sort the country out, quoting misleading tractor stats to win votes. The public are used to it by now, an experience learnt through perpetual disappointment. Lying is a qualification required of all politicians, even Jean Claude Junker:- "When it becomes serious you have to lie"

    Leave and Remain = Cat and Kettle

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10874230/Jean-Claude-Juncker-profile-When-it-becomes-serious-you-have-to-lie.html
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    This also completely ignores the fake statistics coming from the Remain side, there is no statistical basis or evidence for anything beyond a 3-5 point GDP drop in the first two years after that no one can really say what is going to happen, certainly not the treasury. Given that EU exports account for 12% of GDP we would have to lose more than half of it without any domestic demand to replace the losses. I find that highly unlikely.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Can this be translated as. 'Increasing doubt about accuracy of phone polls, big uptick in bets on Brexit, oh eck Leave might actually win this?

    EU Army is great for Remain.
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Net Contribution = £8.5bn
    Gross Contribution (post rebate) = £13bn
    Gross Contribution (without rebate) = £18bn

    Imagine another Blair like rebate surrender. What's the bill?

    The UK government has form for losing rebates and opt-outs.

    Actually our rebate is only 10% now thanks to a certain A Blair. The gross contribution is £18bn and the post rebate contribution is £16.2bn, after that the EU spends around £6bn on grants, CA subsidies and development funds making our net contribution around £10bn, about £200m per week. One could suggest that we may have a cheaper agricultural subsidies programme but I would use the £200m figure if I was I charge of Leave.
    One could also suggest we might not spend quite a lot of that £6bn the way the EU wants it spent, or indeed at all, especially since in many cases we have to match the amount from general taxation to get it, which makes it substantially more expensive than the face value suggests.

    All that money the EU spends of "opinion formers" to ensure it gets the right sort of coverage in exactly the BrExit sort of situation, is not only scandalous, but extremely unlikely to be replicated by a national government.
  • LewisDuckworth
    LewisDuckworth Posts: 379
    Got a guy repairing my roof this morning. He's got a white van and is quite a regular at the Bournville Social Club. Tells me that he voted Con in the 2015 election (he was a last minute waverer from UKIP) and he tells me also that he's voting Leave and that ALL his mates are voting LEAVE.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    "The basis for ministers to dismiss such a referendum result perhaps?"

    NO
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Can this be translated as. 'Increasing doubt about accuracy of phone polls, big uptick in bets on Brexit, oh eck Leave might actually win this?

    Yet where the money is going, Remain are still circa 80% on course to win.
  • Paul_Bedfordshire
    Paul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    MTimT said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Yay another bad jacketing of Brexit thread.

    What a suprise.

    You don't have to come here. If you don't like it then I'm sure there are other sites.

    LOL, Mike. You know you write these headlines and headers to get precisely this reaction ...
    I tbink the word is clickbait
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    edited May 2016
    'Post election the INNERS would have very strong ground for complaint and you could just see' Cameron dismissing a LEAVE outcome.'

    Sorry Mike but that's just silly. If Leave wins by a single vote Dave will initiate the Brexit mechanisms that afternoon, at the same time as appointing Boris and IDS as the joint heads of his post-EU negotiation task force. He'll then sit back and enjoy the fun.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    MTimT said:

    Does anyone have figures for EU country gross contributions to the EU budget by percentage of GDP? Where would the UK come on that table?

    Sorry, found the answer. It is actually quite surprising ...

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8036097.stm#start
  • tpfkar
    tpfkar Posts: 1,578
    SouthamObserver said:

    tpfkar said:

    I can't see a referendum result being overturned, however close.

    But if the Leave campaign are "stretching the actualite" to the point where the Statistics Authority have to step in to correct, where's the power to stop them lying? The Leave campaign seem quite happy to blissfully ignore being caught out like this, and there's no way a letter from the ONS is going to get the same publicity as the figure on the side of the bus. So where's the power to compel them to take back such a misleading claim? I know the response will be to look at some of the nonsense the Remain campaign has come out with, but that's just a diversion - how do we stop an out and out lie when the people propogating it don't show any respect for the ONS?

    If lies and inaccuracies are pointed out, then what is the problem? Voters have been told in advance of going to the polls and can make their choices with that in mind. There would be absolutely no basis whatsoever for overturning a result in such circumstances.

    I know, I know. I guess I'm just hankering after a world where facts and figures matter more, and spin, assertion and bluster less. Can't I dream?
  • LewisDuckworth
    LewisDuckworth Posts: 379
    Speaking of DODGY CLAIMS, are there any statistics available on the probability of WW3 started if we vote BREXIT?
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Can this be translated as. 'Increasing doubt about accuracy of phone polls, big uptick in bets on Brexit, oh eck Leave might actually win this?

    Yet where the money is going, Remain are still circa 80% on course to win.
    Do we have any evidence on volume rather than value ? A few high rollers heaping cash on one side or the other can completely screw up the usefulness of the betting figures. The number of punters placing bets on one side or the other might be more indicative.

  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    SouthamObserver said:

    tpfkar said:

    I can't see a referendum result being overturned, however close.

    But if the Leave campaign are "stretching the actualite" to the point where the Statistics Authority have to step in to correct, where's the power to stop them lying? The Leave campaign seem quite happy to blissfully ignore being caught out like this, and there's no way a letter from the ONS is going to get the same publicity as the figure on the side of the bus. So where's the power to compel them to take back such a misleading claim? I know the response will be to look at some of the nonsense the Remain campaign has come out with, but that's just a diversion - how do we stop an out and out lie when the people propogating it don't show any respect for the ONS?

    If lies and inaccuracies are pointed out, then what is the problem? Voters have been told in advance of going to the polls and can make their choices with that in mind. There would be absolutely no basis whatsoever for overturning a result in such circumstances.

    Lying in a campaign can have consequences:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8114108/Labour-MP-Phil-Woolas-loses-seat-over-election-lies.html
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    £8.5 billion is the net figure, which corresponds to £163 million a week (£23 million a day).
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Indigo said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Net Contribution = £8.5bn
    Gross Contribution (post rebate) = £13bn
    Gross Contribution (without rebate) = £18bn

    Imagine another Blair like rebate surrender. What's the bill?

    The UK government has form for losing rebates and opt-outs.

    Actually our rebate is only 10% now thanks to a certain A Blair. The gross contribution is £18bn and the post rebate contribution is £16.2bn, after that the EU spends around £6bn on grants, CA subsidies and development funds making our net contribution around £10bn, about £200m per week. One could suggest that we may have a cheaper agricultural subsidies programme but I would use the £200m figure if I was I charge of Leave.
    One could also suggest we might not spend quite a lot of that £6bn the way the EU wants it spent, or indeed at all, especially since in many cases we have to match the amount from general taxation to get it, which makes it substantially more expensive than the face value suggests.

    All that money the EU spends of "opinion formers" to ensure it gets the right sort of coverage in exactly the BrExit sort of situation, is not only scandalous, but extremely unlikely to be replicated by a national government.
    I don't disagree with you on this. All I'm saying is that £200m per week is probably the fair value figure and it is still a lot of money.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    Does anyone have figures for EU country gross contributions to the EU budget by percentage of GDP? Where would the UK come on that table?

    Sorry, found the answer. It is actually quite surprising ...

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8036097.stm#start
    That was 2007, our figure has gone up since then because of hookers, drug addicts and Tony Blair.
  • SandraM
    SandraM Posts: 206
    LewisDuckworth said:

    Got a guy repairing my roof this morning. He's got a white van and is quite a regular at the Bournville Social Club. Tells me that he voted Con in the 2015 election (he was a last minute waverer from UKIP) and he tells me also that he's voting Leave and that ALL his mates are voting LEAVE.

    Another anecdote alert: I've just come back from the hairdresser and my hairdresser told me that she's been asking customers and staff how they are going to vote on the referendum and she says that out of 60 asked all but three say they will vote Leave.

  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    MikeSmithson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Yay another bad jacketing of Brexit thread.

    What a suprise.

    You don't have to come here. If you don't like it then I'm sure there are other sites.

    Vapid bilge!
  • LewisDuckworth
    LewisDuckworth Posts: 379
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    £8.5 billion is the net figure, which corresponds to £163 million a week (£23 million a day).

    One of the Remainiacs on a previous thread preferred it expressed in Mars Bars per day.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited May 2016
    Indigo said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Can this be translated as. 'Increasing doubt about accuracy of phone polls, big uptick in bets on Brexit, oh eck Leave might actually win this?

    Yet where the money is going, Remain are still circa 80% on course to win.
    Do we have any evidence on volume rather than value ? A few high rollers heaping cash on one side or the other can completely screw up the usefulness of the betting figures. The number of punters placing bets on one side or the other might be more indicative.

    Well take Ladbrokes, Shadsy has been saying he's been taking more money/bets on Leave, and yet the price on Remain is 1/6, which is still the best price for Remain with the traditional bookies.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    chestnut said:

    There is £25bn in the kitty from overseas aid and EU contributions.

    Leave's big mistake is going so small on what they can do and how much they have to work with to ensure smooth transition.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/732634881029726208
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    FPT
    What is the correct figure - I hand the EU £20, the EU says I can have £3 in CAP back, and another £6 which must be given to a Scotsman, and only provided I give the Scotsman another £6 too? Because I think the EU projects are mostly in Scotland and Wales? Or have I got it wrong?

    Yes you have it wrong big time. Westminster decide where the money is spent , ie last time they allocated 200 million to Scotland as poor area, UK gave it to English farmers.
  • Paul_Bedfordshire
    Paul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    LewisDuckworth said:

    Speaking of DODGY CLAIMS, are there any statistics available on the probability of WW3 started if we vote BREXIT?

    What about betting odds?
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    logical_song said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    tpfkar said:

    I can't see a referendum result being overturned, however close.

    But if the Leave campaign are "stretching the actualite" to the point where the Statistics Authority have to step in to correct, where's the power to stop them lying? The Leave campaign seem quite happy to blissfully ignore being caught out like this, and there's no way a letter from the ONS is going to get the same publicity as the figure on the side of the bus. So where's the power to compel them to take back such a misleading claim? I know the response will be to look at some of the nonsense the Remain campaign has come out with, but that's just a diversion - how do we stop an out and out lie when the people propogating it don't show any respect for the ONS?

    If lies and inaccuracies are pointed out, then what is the problem? Voters have been told in advance of going to the polls and can make their choices with that in mind. There would be absolutely no basis whatsoever for overturning a result in such circumstances.

    Lying in a campaign can have consequences:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8114108/Labour-MP-Phil-Woolas-loses-seat-over-election-lies.html
    Except that neither side is really lying most of the time, they are just using endless #WeaselWords.

    I dont think I have ever seen the word "could" has been quite so often and with quite such abandon. In almost every case it would be replaced with "won't" without reducing accuracy of the statement in the slighest. Its so bad it's starting to be noticed even by the public!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    What will cause Leave damage is that Sarah Wollaston, a Doctor and Leaver herself has said she won't be doing anything that has this inaccurate stat.

    If your own side says the figure is dodgy....
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/neiledwardlovat/status/736078252842749952
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What will cause Leave damage is that Sarah Wollaston, a Doctor and Leaver herself has said she won't be doing anything that has this inaccurate stat.

    If your own side says the figure is dodgy....

    £163 million a week :)
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Can this be translated as. 'Increasing doubt about accuracy of phone polls, big uptick in bets on Brexit, oh eck Leave might actually win this?

    Yet where the money is going, Remain are still circa 80% on course to win.
    You mean where the money is going in low stakes explicit political betting markets, vs where the money is going in the real world, high stakes financial markets?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    Indigo said:

    logical_song said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    tpfkar said:

    I can't see a referendum result being overturned, however close.

    But if the Leave campaign are "stretching the actualite" to the point where the Statistics Authority have to step in to correct, where's the power to stop them lying? The Leave campaign seem quite happy to blissfully ignore being caught out like this, and there's no way a letter from the ONS is going to get the same publicity as the figure on the side of the bus. So where's the power to compel them to take back such a misleading claim? I know the response will be to look at some of the nonsense the Remain campaign has come out with, but that's just a diversion - how do we stop an out and out lie when the people propogating it don't show any respect for the ONS?

    If lies and inaccuracies are pointed out, then what is the problem? Voters have been told in advance of going to the polls and can make their choices with that in mind. There would be absolutely no basis whatsoever for overturning a result in such circumstances.

    Lying in a campaign can have consequences:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8114108/Labour-MP-Phil-Woolas-loses-seat-over-election-lies.html
    Except that neither side is really lying most of the time, they are just using endless #WeaselWords.

    I dont think I have ever seen the word "could" has been quite so often and with quite such abandon. In almost every case it would be replaced with "won't" without reducing accuracy of the statement in the slighest. Its so bad it's starting to be noticed even by the public!
    LEAVING "could" result in OGH eating his hat.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    Does anyone have figures for EU country gross contributions to the EU budget by percentage of GDP? Where would the UK come on that table?

    Sorry, found the answer. It is actually quite surprising ...

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8036097.stm#start
    2007?
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    MTimT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Can this be translated as. 'Increasing doubt about accuracy of phone polls, big uptick in bets on Brexit, oh eck Leave might actually win this?

    Yet where the money is going, Remain are still circa 80% on course to win.
    You mean where the money is going in low stakes explicit political betting markets, vs where the money is going in the real world, high stakes financial markets?
    Well given the strengthening pound it is pretty clear that the markets are betting on Remain also. Good for me as I have to go to Greece at the end of the month and I haven't paid the hotel bill yet.
  • Verulamius
    Verulamius Posts: 1,555
    The IFS published a couple of months ago a comprehensive analysis of the EU budget and contributions.

    http://www.ifs.org.uk/tools_and_resources/budget-european-union

  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    john_zims said:

    @david_herdson

    'The public doesn't like being deceived. See the the Lib Dem for details.'


    Don't think the public like being told by an un-elected bureaucracy on how £8 billion of their taxes can be spent.

    "There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    Verulamius said:

    The IFS published a couple of months ago a comprehensive analysis of the EU budget and contributions.

    http://www.ifs.org.uk/tools_and_resources/budget-european-union

    https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
  • Wulfrun_Phil
    Wulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    I agree with Mike that Leave would be better advised to use figures that stand scrutiny. The UK's net contribution is huge whatever way you look at it, so the Leave campaign has no need to exaggerate the figure. Doing so not only undermines this key claim but it also makes it harder for Leave to credibly challenge some of the statistical guff that the Government is making its departments come up with.

    The BBC's "More or Less" figure looked at this about a month back and came up with a figure of a net contribution of about £8.5 billion annually, in the same ball park of the figure of the IFS.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    SouthamObserver said:

    tpfkar said:

    I can't see a referendum result being overturned, however close.

    But if the Leave campaign are "stretching the actualite" to the point where the Statistics Authority have to step in to correct, where's the power to stop them lying? The Leave campaign seem quite happy to blissfully ignore being caught out like this, and there's no way a letter from the ONS is going to get the same publicity as the figure on the side of the bus. So where's the power to compel them to take back such a misleading claim? I know the response will be to look at some of the nonsense the Remain campaign has come out with, but that's just a diversion - how do we stop an out and out lie when the people propogating it don't show any respect for the ONS?

    If lies and inaccuracies are pointed out, then what is the problem? Voters have been told in advance of going to the polls and can make their choices with that in mind. There would be absolutely no basis whatsoever for overturning a result in such circumstances.

    Question is why they are not calling out the absolute whoppers that the government and their lapdogs are coming out with.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Ignoring a Leave result would b the death of the story Party.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    Verulamius said:

    The IFS published a couple of months ago a comprehensive analysis of the EU budget and contributions.

    http://www.ifs.org.uk/tools_and_resources/budget-european-union

    Thanks
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    david_herdson said:

    The public doesn't like being deceived. See the the Lib Dem for details.

    Both official campaigns have been equally guilty of that and I think whoever wins is basically going to be in a lot of trouble.
    I think it's slightly different. In 2010, the Lib Dems made a particular promise the centrepiece of their campaign and then did the exact opposite in government. With EURef, both sides have been running Projects Fear, so the losing side will have apocalyptic predictions proven hysterical while the winners may find their rosy assertions sullied by events.

    But I agree that the quality of the campaign has been dire.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What will cause Leave damage is that Sarah Wollaston, a Doctor and Leaver herself has said she won't be doing anything that has this inaccurate stat.

    If your own side says the figure is dodgy....

    From memory she says the consrvative leadership is a bit dodgy

    it's your own side saying it.

  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    malcolmg said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    tpfkar said:

    I can't see a referendum result being overturned, however close.

    But if the Leave campaign are "stretching the actualite" to the point where the Statistics Authority have to step in to correct, where's the power to stop them lying? The Leave campaign seem quite happy to blissfully ignore being caught out like this, and there's no way a letter from the ONS is going to get the same publicity as the figure on the side of the bus. So where's the power to compel them to take back such a misleading claim? I know the response will be to look at some of the nonsense the Remain campaign has come out with, but that's just a diversion - how do we stop an out and out lie when the people propogating it don't show any respect for the ONS?

    If lies and inaccuracies are pointed out, then what is the problem? Voters have been told in advance of going to the polls and can make their choices with that in mind. There would be absolutely no basis whatsoever for overturning a result in such circumstances.

    Question is why they are not calling out the absolute whoppers that the government and their lapdogs are coming out with.
    Because it's speculative bs. It's just an opinion about what might happen. No one can say it's definitely rubbish.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    https://twitter.com/Stronger_ln/status/736132875435839488
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Anyhoo

    @rafaelbehr: So Vote Leave promoting a bet that sounds like a treat but is in fact mathematically close to impossible. Could be a metaphor for something.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    edited May 2016
    MTimT said:

    Does anyone have figures for EU country gross contributions to the EU budget by percentage of GDP? Where would the UK come on that table?

    It's in the Wikipedia page on the EU budget.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union

    All the rich countries of the EU pay between 0.24% and 0.32% of GDP. We are 0.25%.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Seeing the debates yesterday it really struck me that class is a big factor in this referendum. Working class woman whose disabled mum can't get a bungalow being lectured by well heeled middle class lefty student.

    One class of people looking down on another for complaining that immigration is having big impact on their lives.

    Who outnumbers who and how many will vote? anyone's guess.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What will cause Leave damage is that Sarah Wollaston, a Doctor and Leaver herself has said she won't be doing anything that has this inaccurate stat.

    If your own side says the figure is dodgy....

    From memory she says the consrvative leadership is a bit dodgy

    it's your own side saying it.

    We're a broad church, not like the sheep that is the SNP, who can't criticise their own side.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    taffys said:

    Seeing the debates yesterday it really struck me that class is a big factor in this referendum. Working class woman whose disabled mum can't get a bungalow being lectured by well heeled middle class lefty student.

    One class of people looking down on another for complaining that immigration is having big impact on their lives.

    Who outnumbers who and how many will vote? anyone's guess.

    Eactly my thoughts. Thats why Leave has made a huge mistake not making Labour leave politicians as front and centre of their campaign instead of bloody Boris Johnson. Jeez.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    LewisDuckworth said:

    Speaking of DODGY CLAIMS, are there any statistics available on the probability of WW3 started if we vote BREXIT?

    What about betting odds?
    I can give you good odds that there won't be world war 3 in the next 10 years. (World war 3 being defined as a major exchange of nuclear ordinance (10GT+) between America, the UK, France, Russia and China. A nuclear war between India and Pakistan only or Israel and Iran only won't count.)

    If I lose and there is world war 3 - do you want the winnings sent to heaven, hell or purgatory?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    taffys said:

    Seeing the debates yesterday it really struck me that class is a big factor in this referendum. Working class woman whose disabled mum can't get a bungalow being lectured by well heeled middle class lefty student.

    One class of people looking down on another for complaining that immigration is having big impact on their lives.

    Who outnumbers who and how many will vote? anyone's guess.

    Historically the working class don't turn out to vote as much as the middle classes.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    MaxPB said:

    MTimT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Can this be translated as. 'Increasing doubt about accuracy of phone polls, big uptick in bets on Brexit, oh eck Leave might actually win this?

    Yet where the money is going, Remain are still circa 80% on course to win.
    You mean where the money is going in low stakes explicit political betting markets, vs where the money is going in the real world, high stakes financial markets?
    Well given the strengthening pound it is pretty clear that the markets are betting on Remain also. Good for me as I have to go to Greece at the end of the month and I haven't paid the hotel bill yet.
    I'm off to Greece tomorrow :lol:
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    .
    nunu said:

    taffys said:

    Seeing the debates yesterday it really struck me that class is a big factor in this referendum. Working class woman whose disabled mum can't get a bungalow being lectured by well heeled middle class lefty student.

    One class of people looking down on another for complaining that immigration is having big impact on their lives.

    Who outnumbers who and how many will vote? anyone's guess.

    Eactly my thoughts. Thats why Leave has made a huge mistake not making Labour leave politicians as front and centre of their campaign instead of bloody Boris Johnson. Jeez.
    Boris won in London twice - he's got cross party appeal.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    There is a snowballs chance in hell of a Leave result being dismissed.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    john_zims said:

    @david_herdson

    'The public doesn't like being deceived. See the the Lib Dem for details.'


    Don't think the public like being told by an un-elected bureaucracy on how £8 billion of their taxes can be spent.

    The public is actually depressingly keen on that. Look at the support for taking all sorts of decisions out of the hands of accountable ministers and MPs, and handing them to experts, commissions, boards and the like. The view that politicians shouldn't have a say in the NHS, for example, is quite widespread.

    It's not who spends it that really matters; it's whether it's spent well and on what, where the battle lies.
  • Wulfrun_Phil
    Wulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    Two further consequence of Leave choosing to run with a headline figure on (exaggerated) gross rather than net contributions are that:
    1. It's then difficult without being utterly contradictory to use the (true) claim that we pay in about 3 times as much to the EU as we get back in EU payments. The Remain campaign is going to great lengths to highlight all of the projects funded by various EU contributions, and the "3 times in than what we get back" is the obvious rebuttal to all that.
    2. It also makes it harder for them to focus on the fact that it's the EU not the UK that dictates where those EU payments are and are not applied and the questionable nature of much of those payments on a harmonised one-size-fits-all basis (e.g. precisely how the EU chooses to deploy its farm subsidies in support of large scale agribusiness should be more than a little contentious.)
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    taffys said:

    Seeing the debates yesterday it really struck me that class is a big factor in this referendum. Working class woman whose disabled mum can't get a bungalow being lectured by well heeled middle class lefty student.

    One class of people looking down on another for complaining that immigration is having big impact on their lives.

    Who outnumbers who and how many will vote? anyone's guess.

    Historically the working class don't turn out to vote as much as the middle classes.

    Historically.

  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Murray wins in straight sets 6:1 6:4 7:6
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Two further consequence of Leave choosing to run with a headline figure on (exaggerated) gross rather than net contributions are that:
    1. It's then difficult without being utterly contradictory to use the (true) claim that we pay in about 3 times as much to the EU as we get back in EU payments. The Remain campaign is going to great lengths to highlight all of the projects funded by various EU contributions, and the "3 times in than what we get back" is the obvious rebuttal to all that.
    2. It also makes it harder for them to focus on the fact that it's the EU not the UK that dictates where those EU payments are and are not applied and the questionable nature of much of those payments on a harmonised one-size-fits-all basis (e.g. precisely how the EU chooses to deploy its farm subsidies in support of large scale agribusiness should be more than a little contentious.)

    The Sunil on Sunday's "Be LEAVE" campaign has always used the net £8.5 billion (2015) figure.
  • Innocent_Abroad
    Innocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    john_zims said:

    @david_herdson

    'The public doesn't like being deceived. See the the Lib Dem for details.'


    Don't think the public like being told by an un-elected bureaucracy on how £8 billion of their taxes can be spent.

    I don't suppose that those members of the electorate who don't like that much like the fact that electors who don't care much one way or the other have votes, either.

    Just wait until REMAIN squeak home on the votes of Celts and non-whites, and then hear the whines and rages...

  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    MarkHopkins said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    taffys said:

    Seeing the debates yesterday it really struck me that class is a big factor in this referendum. Working class woman whose disabled mum can't get a bungalow being lectured by well heeled middle class lefty student.

    One class of people looking down on another for complaining that immigration is having big impact on their lives.

    Who outnumbers who and how many will vote? anyone's guess.

    Historically the working class don't turn out to vote as much as the middle classes.

    Historically.

    That Austrian President vote was stark, but I think the middle class in the UK will be more mixed - especially the small business entrepreneur class and their employees?
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Plato_Says said:

    .

    nunu said:

    taffys said:

    Seeing the debates yesterday it really struck me that class is a big factor in this referendum. Working class woman whose disabled mum can't get a bungalow being lectured by well heeled middle class lefty student.

    One class of people looking down on another for complaining that immigration is having big impact on their lives.

    Who outnumbers who and how many will vote? anyone's guess.

    Eactly my thoughts. Thats why Leave has made a huge mistake not making Labour leave politicians as front and centre of their campaign instead of bloody Boris Johnson. Jeez.
    Boris won in London twice - he's got cross party appeal.

    Note that it should be past tense HAD rather than has.. Boris has been a berk.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyhoo

    @rafaelbehr: So Vote Leave promoting a bet that sounds like a treat but is in fact mathematically close to impossible. Could be a metaphor for something.

    I imagine it is to obtain voter information. For £50,000 it could be money well spent.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Lord Ashcroft's latest focus group

    Finally, in the wake of Sister Sledge, Alesha Dixon, East 17 and 5ive pulling out of Leave.EU’s campaign concert, who did the groups think might be drafted in as pro-Brexit replacements? “One of them two brothers. The Gallaghers.” “I think more like Chas and Dave”. “Morrissey, because he likes to be controversial.” “Sinead O’Connor would want us out.” “Jedward”. “The Spice Girls with their Union Jack.”

    And on the remain side? “Paul McCartney, Bob Geldof, Bono, Sting, the likes of that.” “Cliff Richard.” Anyone else? “That Gary Barlow.”

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/05/turkey-migrants-the-euro-army-the-price-of-freedom-and-the-neutrality-paradox-my-referendum-focus-groups-in-leeds/
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    https://twitter.com/DanHannanMEP/status/736184532903268352
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This is my favourite HSJ BMA leak.

    Dr Malawana - chairman of the committee - dismissed January’s negotiation talks overseen by the mediation service Acas as “rubbish” and “playing the political game of looking reasonable”.

    Still, just 125 000 appts and operations were cancelled as part of their charade. Many of us said that the junior doctors would live to regret this - I never expected it would explode so messily. Who'd trust anything their union says ever again?
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