politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : May 26th 2016

First like Leave.

This is turning into farce and Victoria Derbyshire is not up to it. Remain seems to have the advantage due to the sense being talked by Salmon and Johnson. There does seem to be an undercurrent against over egging immigration

Cost of the EU per day per Briton, Alex? "Aboot half a Mars bar."

Victoria Derbyshire interrupting Leavers with counter-arguments and echoing Remainers. Predictable but still disappointing.

Bob__Sykes said:

Don't know if the BBC deliberately engineered this but it's coming across as two obsessed ranting fruitcakes vs two reasonably moderate normal blokes.

Remain is trouncing Leave here.

Diane James is meant to be one of the very best Ukip speakers.
I mean, they could have asked Douglas Carswell.

Derbyshire being propositioned by an audience member a new lowlight. Or highlight, depending on your viewpoint....

Well this is what happens when you go up against the two strongest left-wing politicians in Westminster working together.

Food for thought.

Not watching the shit show...all too predictable having the woman who makes kay Burley look like a brain surgeon (and not the Ben Carson type) & has an impossible time hiding her personal views on subjects.

This does seem to be the soundbite of the night

@jessicaelgot: We don't know what will happen if we leave, says Diane James, there is no plan. Apparently speaking in support of leave.

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

Derbyshire: "Will we need visas to go to Europe?:
Diane James: "We just don't know."

A Leave vote is a complete leap in the dark. We know absolutely nothing about what it will end up delivering or even when we'd cease being an EU member state.

Stop it with your silly Remain attack lines.

It is not a complete leap in the dark. It means leaving the European Union.

But, even in the worst case, the worst that can happen is that our exports face WTO tariffs to the EU. Open Europe assesses our GDP would be 2.2% lower in 2030. That's it.

In reality, a UK-EU treaty on trade will be struck, and well you know it.

A vote to Leave is a mandate to negotiate a better deal, and for our politicians to try again and try harder.

Jonathan said:

Well this is what happens when you go up against the two strongest left-wing politicians in Westminster working together.

Food for thought.

And then there's Jezza ....

Food for sharks ... the Conservative kind.

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

Derbyshire: "Will we need visas to go to Europe?:
Diane James: "We just don't know."

A Leave vote is a complete leap in the dark. We know absolutely nothing about what it will end up delivering or even when we'd cease being an EU member state.

Mr Gove says no responsible government would actually start leaving straight away after a LEAVE vote. Boris thinks LEAVE just means he should get to negotiate the terms of REMAIN as Prime Minister. Clown show.

Victoria Derbyshire is DIRE. Her scratchy voice just gives me a headache. Alex Salmond is just bloody rude, he just can't resist making personal comments.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Casino_Royale said:

trawl said:

Casino_Royale - printed your blog post and gave it to two women at work I overheard in discussion; one tending towards Remain the other totally unsure and decrying the obviously biased daily diet of scaremongering. Don't know which they are going but the possible Remainer came back to me next day and praised the clarity. So another thank-you to you.

Anecdote - was dealing with a Romanian lady last week. 30s, said she had been her 10-12 years and her kids have British passports. Asked me straight out how I was voting. Told her and frankly felt a bit awkward so stressed that it all about sovereignty for me. I needn't have worried; she explained that she too had the vote and was voting leave. "This is an island, and its different" she said and I grew a foot taller on the spot.

Thanks trawl :-)

Like you, I'm really struggling emotionally with this. My mood can turn on a sixpence depending upon a poll, or a single conversion!

Thankfully, I'm away over the weekend for a much needed break.

FPT Casino Royale, keep your chin up fellah.
All we can offer is blood, toil, sweat and tears etc.
I'm happy to vote for Leave even if I'm the only bugger that does.
I've shared your blog post too with a couple of people I know. Both are fairly anti-political generally but found it interesting and moved them from DNV to Prob Leave.

Thanks mate :-)

Worst thing for me is Leavers moving to Remainers, particularly off the back of the Government's incessant fear propaganda. It really depresses me.

Where's our courage, self-belief and confidence we can build a brighter future for ourselves, and give leadership to those in Europe also desperate for self-governance again?

We mustn't let the buggers win.

So 50% of the undecided audience members have now made up their minds - wow, as VD put it. But we didn't get to find out how it broke down!

Crap show;, crap ending!

JackW said:

Jonathan said:

Well this is what happens when you go up against the two strongest left-wing politicians in Westminster working together.

Food for thought.

And then there's Jezza ....

Food for sharks ... the Conservative kind.

The Conservative kind? That's the only type of shark there is. Fortunately said sharks seem happy to chew on gas canisters.

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

Derbyshire: "Will we need visas to go to Europe?:
Diane James: "We just don't know."

A Leave vote is a complete leap in the dark. We know absolutely nothing about what it will end up delivering or even when we'd cease being an EU member state.

Stop it with your silly Remain attack lines.

It is not a complete leap in the dark. It means leaving the European Union.

But, even in the worst case, the worst that can happen is that our exports face WTO tariffs to the EU. Open Europe assesses our GDP would be 2.2% lower in 2030. That's it.

In reality, a UK-EU treaty on trade will be struck, and well you know it.

A vote to Leave is a mandate to negotiate a better deal, and for our politicians to try again and try harder.

I really admire your passion, but I disagree. If we vote Leave when will we leave? You don't know. You don't know if we'll retain free movement or scrap it, you don't know if we'll still contribute to the EU budget or be bound by EU laws. You don't even know who'll be doing the negotiating. It's a complete leap in the dark and one that could cause real damage to a very fragile European recovery. Again, we don't know.

LadyBucket said:

Victoria Derbyshire is DIRE. Her scratchy voice just gives me a headache. Alex Salmond is just bloody rude, he just can't resist making personal comments.

Salmond is a gift to Leave. Even ScottP must be tempted to see reason and join the just.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

Derbyshire: "Will we need visas to go to Europe?:
Diane James: "We just don't know."

A Leave vote is a complete leap in the dark. We know absolutely nothing about what it will end up delivering or even when we'd cease being an EU member state.

Stop it with your silly Remain attack lines.

It is not a complete leap in the dark. It means leaving the European Union.

But, even in the worst case, the worst that can happen is that our exports face WTO tariffs to the EU. Open Europe assesses our GDP would be 2.2% lower in 2030. That's it.

In reality, a UK-EU treaty on trade will be struck, and well you know it.

A vote to Leave is a mandate to negotiate a better deal, and for our politicians to try again and try harder.

I really admire your passion, but I disagree. If we vote Leave when will we leave? You don't know. You don't know if we'll retain free movement or scrap it, you don't know if we'll still contribute to the EU budget or be bound by EU laws. You don't even know who'll be doing the negotiating. It's a complete leap in the dark and one that could cause real damage to a very fragile European recovery. Again, we don't know.

In your opinion would EFTA+EEA be a leap in the dark?

OK, so here are a few questions that I had hoped would be asked/answered tonight:
1. Economy
a. What is the difference between Single Market membership and Single Market access?
b. What is the cost, both financial and non-financial of Single Market membership versus cost of Single Market access?
c. Is there a difference between how the cost for membership is paid versus cost of access (i.e. is membership paid for by governments (every taxpayer) whereas access is paid by companies (every customer) trading into the Single Market)
d. Are there examples that can be given to show the cost of Single Market membership versus the cost of Single Market access?
e. The Prime Minister has said he would invoke Article 50 the day after a Leave result. At that point, let’s say on June 24, what difference will that make to our trading relationships with countries such as USA etc?
f. At what point in the future would there be a significant change to our trading relationships with countries such as the USA etc. in the event of a Leave vote and why?
g. Additionally, on June 24th, what difference will there be to our trading relationships with members of the EU in the event of a Leave vote?
h. At what point in the future would there be a significant change to our trading relationships with members of the EU in the event of a Leave vote, why and what do we expect the changes to be?
i. What are the risks to our Financial Services industry in the event of a Leave vote, what is the likelihood of that risk turning into an issue (i.e. becoming reality) and what are the mitigating factors that the UK government could take.
j. What are the risks to our Financial Services Industry in the event of a Remain vote what is the likelihood of that risk turning into an issue (i.e. becoming reality) and what are the mitigating factors that the UK government could take.

The first debate was a car crash for leave with Diane James being the driver and Victoria Derbyshire the co-driver. Seemed the undecided broke for remain when asked at the end of the debate.

Casino_Royale said:

Thanks mate :-)

Worst thing for me is Leavers moving to Remainers, particularly off the back of the Government's incessant fear propaganda. It really depresses me.

Where's our courage, self-belief and confidence we can build a brighter future for ourselves, and give leadership to those in Europe also desperate for self-governance again?

We mustn't let the buggers win.

Unless there's a black swan event blacker than the blackest black hole then the REMAIN "buggers" have won.

And that my dear fellow is the harsh truth.

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

Thanks mate :-)

Worst thing for me is Leavers moving to Remainers, particularly off the back of the Government's incessant fear propaganda. It really depresses me.

Where's our courage, self-belief and confidence we can build a brighter future for ourselves, and give leadership to those in Europe also desperate for self-governance again?

We mustn't let the buggers win.

Unless there's a black swan event blacker than the blackest black hole then the REMAIN "buggers" have won.

And that my dear fellow is the harsh truth.

Still four weeks to go. And still some polls very close.

You are probably right. But a 75% chance of a Remain victory does not equal an 100% chance.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

Derbyshire: "Will we need visas to go to Europe?:
Diane James: "We just don't know."

A Leave vote is a complete leap in the dark. We know absolutely nothing about what it will end up delivering or even when we'd cease being an EU member state.

Stop it with your silly Remain attack lines.

It is not a complete leap in the dark. It means leaving the European Union.

But, even in the worst case, the worst that can happen is that our exports face WTO tariffs to the EU. Open Europe assesses our GDP would be 2.2% lower in 2030. That's it.

In reality, a UK-EU treaty on trade will be struck, and well you know it.

A vote to Leave is a mandate to negotiate a better deal, and for our politicians to try again and try harder.

I really admire your passion, but I disagree. If we vote Leave when will we leave? You don't know. You don't know if we'll retain free movement or scrap it, you don't know if we'll still contribute to the EU budget or be bound by EU laws. You don't even know who'll be doing the negotiating. It's a complete leap in the dark and one that could cause real damage to a very fragile European recovery. Again, we don't know.

And if we remain - then we are in the dark as to what new policies Europe will force us to accept - we can be sure that they will be to the benefit of the continent and only of benefit to us by happenstance.

chestnut said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

Derbyshire: "Will we need visas to go to Europe?:
Diane James: "We just don't know."

A Leave vote is a complete leap in the dark. We know absolutely nothing about what it will end up delivering or even when we'd cease being an EU member state.

Stop it with your silly Remain attack lines.

It is not a complete leap in the dark. It means leaving the European Union.

But, even in the worst case, the worst that can happen is that our exports face WTO tariffs to the EU. Open Europe assesses our GDP would be 2.2% lower in 2030. That's it.

In reality, a UK-EU treaty on trade will be struck, and well you know it.

A vote to Leave is a mandate to negotiate a better deal, and for our politicians to try again and try harder.

I really admire your passion, but I disagree. If we vote Leave when will we leave? You don't know. You don't know if we'll retain free movement or scrap it, you don't know if we'll still contribute to the EU budget or be bound by EU laws. You don't even know who'll be doing the negotiating. It's a complete leap in the dark and one that could cause real damage to a very fragile European recovery. Again, we don't know.

Perhaps you can advise:

1) Accession dates for Albania, Montenegro, Macdeonia, Serbia, Turkey:
2) Future budgets for Britain if they enter:
3) Shape and form of Common Immigration and Asylum Policy:
4) Future of Trial by Jury;
5) The EU Army?
6) Harmonisation plans for taxes, welfare ,minimum wage, pensions
7) Future grabs at Ukraine;
8) Date when we can expect free trade deals with US, Australia, Korea etc:
9) End date of Eurozone stagnation;

Or is Remain a leap in the dark?

"grabs at Ukraine"
great, another putinist for leave

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Casino_Royale said:

trawl said:

Casino_Royale - printed your blog post and gave it to two women at work I overheard in discussion; one tending towards Remain the other totally unsure and decrying the obviously biased daily diet of scaremongering. Don't know which they are going but the possible Remainer came back to me next day and praised the clarity. So another thank-you to you.

Anecdote - was dealing with a Romanian lady last week. 30s, said she had been her 10-12 years and her kids have British passports. Asked me straight out how I was voting. Told her and frankly felt a bit awkward so stressed that it all about sovereignty for me. I needn't have worried; she explained that she too had the vote and was voting leave. "This is an island, and its different" she said and I grew a foot taller on the spot.

Thanks trawl :-)

Like you, I'm really struggling emotionally with this. My mood can turn on a sixpence depending upon a poll, or a single conversion!

Thankfully, I'm away over the weekend for a much needed break.

FPT Casino Royale, keep your chin up fellah.
All we can offer is blood, toil, sweat and tears etc.
I'm happy to vote for Leave even if I'm the only bugger that does.
I've shared your blog post too with a couple of people I know. Both are fairly anti-political generally but found it interesting and moved them from DNV to Prob Leave.

Thanks mate :-)

Worst thing for me is Leavers moving to Remainers, particularly off the back of the Government's incessant fear propaganda. It really depresses me.

Where's our courage, self-belief and confidence we can build a brighter future for ourselves, and give leadership to those in Europe also desperate for self-governance again?

We mustn't let the buggers win.

The buggers are going to win. We just have to make sure that we win NEXT time. And there will be a next time.

We'll win as soon as we settle on EFTA/EEA. Really, this wouldn't be a contest if the leading lights of Leave had gone with that option.

Being Norway or Switzerland is not as scary as being Albania.

chestnut said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

Derbyshire: "Will we need visas to go to Europe?:
Diane James: "We just don't know."

A Leave vote is a complete leap in the dark. We know absolutely nothing about what it will end up delivering or even when we'd cease being an EU member state.

Stop it with your silly Remain attack lines.

It is not a complete leap in the dark. It means leaving the European Union.

But, even in the worst case, the worst that can happen is that our exports face WTO tariffs to the EU. Open Europe assesses our GDP would be 2.2% lower in 2030. That's it.

In reality, a UK-EU treaty on trade will be struck, and well you know it.

A vote to Leave is a mandate to negotiate a better deal, and for our politicians to try again and try harder.

I really admire your passion, but I disagree. If we vote Leave when will we leave? You don't know. You don't know if we'll retain free movement or scrap it, you don't know if we'll still contribute to the EU budget or be bound by EU laws. You don't even know who'll be doing the negotiating. It's a complete leap in the dark and one that could cause real damage to a very fragile European recovery. Again, we don't know.

Perhaps you can advise:

1) Accession dates for Albania, Montenegro, Macdeonia, Serbia, Turkey:
2) Future budgets for Britain if they enter:
3) Shape and form of Common Immigration and Asylum Policy:
4) Future of Trial by Jury;
5) The EU Army?
6) Harmonisation plans for taxes, welfare ,minimum wage, pensions
7) Future grabs at Ukraine;
8) Date when we can expect free trade deals with US, Australia, Korea etc:
9) End date of Eurozone stagnation;

Or is Remain a leap in the dark?

Oh please drop Turkey. It's stupid.

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Casino_Royale said:

trawl said:

Casino_Royale - printed your blog post and gave it to two women at work I overheard in discussion; one tending towards Remain the other totally unsure and decrying the obviously biased daily diet of scaremongering. Don't know which they are going but the possible Remainer came back to me next day and praised the clarity. So another thank-you to you.

Anecdote - was dealing with a Romanian lady last week. 30s, said she had been her 10-12 years and her kids have British passports. Asked me straight out how I was voting. Told her and frankly felt a bit awkward so stressed that it all about sovereignty for me. I needn't have worried; she explained that she too had the vote and was voting leave. "This is an island, and its different" she said and I grew a foot taller on the spot.

Thanks trawl :-)

Like you, I'm really struggling emotionally with this. My mood can turn on a sixpence depending upon a poll, or a single conversion!

Thankfully, I'm away over the weekend for a much needed break.

FPT Casino Royale, keep your chin up fellah.
All we can offer is blood, toil, sweat and tears etc.
I'm happy to vote for Leave even if I'm the only bugger that does.
I've shared your blog post too with a couple of people I know. Both are fairly anti-political generally but found it interesting and moved them from DNV to Prob Leave.

Thanks mate :-)

Worst thing for me is Leavers moving to Remainers, particularly off the back of the Government's incessant fear propaganda. It really depresses me.

Where's our courage, self-belief and confidence we can build a brighter future for ourselves, and give leadership to those in Europe also desperate for self-governance again?

We mustn't let the buggers win.

The buggers are going to win. We just have to make sure that we win NEXT time. And there will be a next time.

We'll win as soon as we settle on EFTA/EEA. Really, this wouldn't be a contest if the leading lights of Leave had gone with that option.

Being Norway or Switzerland is not as scary as being Albania.

There aren't enough clever low-tax hard-liberal Swiss types on the leave side for that to work.
Maybe on PB, but any leave majority in the country will rely on people who fear foreigners, Islam, terrorism and migration more than economic uncertainty.

CockerSpaniel said:

By the way, Victoria Derbyshire should never be allowed to be in charge of a serious debate ever again. She is awful.

So is her daily show on BBC. She was out of her depth tonight but to be fair she only finished 30 days of chemo today so you have to admire her for that reason alone

Never seen one side of an election/referendum give up so early.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/735922406301282304

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CockerSpaniel said:

OK, so here are a few questions that I had hoped would be asked/answered tonight:
1. Economy
a. What is the difference between Single Market membership and Single Market access?
b. What is the cost, both financial and non-financial of Single Market membership versus cost of Single Market access?
c. Is there a difference between how the cost for membership is paid versus cost of access (i.e. is membership paid for by governments (every taxpayer) whereas access is paid by companies (every customer) trading into the Single Market)
d. Are there examples that can be given to show the cost of Single Market membership versus the cost of Single Market access?
e. The Prime Minister has said he would invoke Article 50 the day after a Leave result. At that point, let’s say on June 24, what difference will that make to our trading relationships with countries such as USA etc?
f. At what point in the future would there be a significant change to our trading relationships with countries such as the USA etc. in the event of a Leave vote and why?
g. Additionally, on June 24th, what difference will there be to our trading relationships with members of the EU in the event of a Leave vote?
h. At what point in the future would there be a significant change to our trading relationships with members of the EU in the event of a Leave vote, why and what do we expect the changes to be?
i. What are the risks to our Financial Services industry in the event of a Leave vote, what is the likelihood of that risk turning into an issue (i.e. becoming reality) and what are the mitigating factors that the UK government could take.
j. What are the risks to our Financial Services Industry in the event of a Remain vote what is the likelihood of that risk turning into an issue (i.e. becoming reality) and what are the mitigating factors that the UK government could take.

Good questions for the Westminster bubble but the voters need simple easy to understand answers to things like jobs, travel, housing and the things that matter in their daily lives

Mr NorthWales,

These questions aren't meant for the Westminster Bubble. They are mean't for me to help me clarify the biggest democratic decision I've had to make for decades.

I am really disappointed at the level of debate over this referendum from politicians both nationally and internationally.

Vote Leave OTHERWISE this will happen. Vote Remain OTHERWISE this will happen.

How about:

Vote Leave BECAUSE this will happen. Vote Remain BECAUSE this will happen.

Both sides are trying to motivate us to move away from the other's position. Moving towards something is a much better motivator in my mind (being an optimist)

EPG said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

The buggers are going to win. We just have to make sure that we win NEXT time. And there will be a next time.

We'll win as soon as we settle on EFTA/EEA. Really, this wouldn't be a contest if the leading lights of Leave had gone with that option.

Being Norway or Switzerland is not as scary as being Albania.

There aren't enough clever low-tax hard-liberal Swiss types on the leave side for that to work.
Maybe on PB, but any leave majority in the country will rely on people who fear foreigners, Islam, terrorism and migration more than economic uncertainty.

Firstly, even in the non-EFTA/EEA scenario. we're not going to require visas for EU citizens, are we? So, the 'terrorism', etc., argument is bullshit all round.

Secondly, EFTA/EEA does not mean that we need to pay benefits to non-citizens. Switzerland, for example, allows EU citizens to work there, but does not give benefits. If you remove the (in-work) benefits from migrants you massively cut their numbers. Plus, you can easily add compulsory health insurance for non-residents that means that the UK becomes a very unattractive destination for low-skilled migrants.

Thirdly and finally, there are a lot of businesses who regard their order of preference as EFTA/EEA > EU > CO. If it's CO vs EU, they come down with the devil they know.

So: no negative impacts on the ability of British firms to export (particularly services) to the EU. A massively reduced bill. No primacy of EU law. And substantially reduced immigration.

Really, I'm struggling to think of the disadvantages.

I think it's logical that most left-wingers, realising that there is no chance of a " progressive majority" in this country, should favour Remain. As would Scottish, Welsh, and Irish nationalists, who bear this country nothing but ill-will.

I find it hard to understand what right-wing voters would find attractive about the EU. It places restraints on our basic centre right majority, and means transferring powers away from that majority.

Oh, and by the way:
2. Sovereignty
a. It has been stated by Leave that we have voted against EU proposals and have been out voted 70 times. Are there any items that can be pointed to where any of these proposals have been to the significant detriment of the UK once becoming EU law
b. What is the role of the unelected Commissionaires versus the role of the elected MEPs
c. How often have the MEPs rejected proposals put forward by the Commissionaires (i.e. is there a democratic process at the heart of the EU that is working)
d. In the event of a Leave vote, what areas of law-making and court judgements would be different as opposed to areas that would continue to be influenced by the ECJ/ECHR

Big_G_NorthWales said:

chestnut said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

the voters need simple easy to understand answers to things like jobs, travel, housing and the things that matter in their daily lives

Your house costs more because migration is out of hand?
Your wages are poor because you are being undercut?

I think you may be right.

Answer to first is build more homes and second the new National Living wage applies to all

We're not building more homes, so the problem is only getting worse.

PS: I can't believe I put an apostrophe in "meant" in that first post. Apologies to all but the Sancerre is rather nice tonight

MP_SE said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

Derbyshire: "Will we need visas to go to Europe?:
Diane James: "We just don't know."

A Leave vote is a complete leap in the dark. We know absolutely nothing about what it will end up delivering or even when we'd cease being an EU member state.

Stop it with your silly Remain attack lines.

It is not a complete leap in the dark. It means leaving the European Union.

But, even in the worst case, the worst that can happen is that our exports face WTO tariffs to the EU. Open Europe assesses our GDP would be 2.2% lower in 2030. That's it.

In reality, a UK-EU treaty on trade will be struck, and well you know it.

A vote to Leave is a mandate to negotiate a better deal, and for our politicians to try again and try harder.

I really admire your passion, but I disagree. If we vote Leave when will we leave? You don't know. You don't know if we'll retain free movement or scrap it, you don't know if we'll still contribute to the EU budget or be bound by EU laws. You don't even know who'll be doing the negotiating. It's a complete leap in the dark and one that could cause real damage to a very fragile European recovery. Again, we don't know.

In your opinion would EFTA+EEA be a leap in the dark?

No - but it looks to be politically impossible.

By the way Harry, I always appreciate your local by-election posts. As a firm believer that national mood swings are shown in local elections first, I think you do a brilliant job. Keep it up.

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

chestnut said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

the voters need simple easy to understand answers to things like jobs, travel, housing and the things that matter in their daily lives

Your house costs more because migration is out of hand?
Your wages are poor because you are being undercut?

I think you may be right.

Answer to first is build more homes and second the new National Living wage applies to all

My (voting Remain) granddaughter has just shared this on Facebook. It’s from a George Bevan. I’m not posting the whole of it, but as far as taking our jobs are concerned he says "maybe, if an immigrant with no contacts, no skills and no local knowledge of the language and/or culture can steal your job, maybe, just maybe, you're s**t at your job."

Language is less of an issue when UK employers say they will only take people who can speak Polish or Portuguese.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Casino_Royale said:

trawl said:

Casino_Royale - printed your blog post and gave it to two women at work I overheard in discussion; one tending towards Remain the other totally unsure and decrying the obviously biased daily diet of scaremongering. Don't know which they are going but the possible Remainer came back to me next day and praised the clarity. So another thank-you to you.
and I grew a foot taller on the spot.

Thanks trawl :-)

Like you, I'm really struggling emotionally with this. My mood can turn on a sixpence depending upon a poll, or a single conversion!

Thankfully, I'm away over the weekend for a much needed break.

FPT CNV to Prob Leave.

Thanks mate :-)

Worst thing for me is Leavers moving to Remainers, particularly off the back of the Government's incessant fear propaganda. It really depresses me.

Where's our courage, self-belief and confidence we can build a brighter future for ourselves, and give leadership to those in Europe also desperate for self-governance again?

We mustn't let the buggers win.

The buggers are going to win. We just have to make sure that we win NEXT time. And there will be a next time.

If Casino Royale is right there will definitely be a next time and Leave will win. If it doesn't win this time.

The Eurozone will Federalise: it has to, or it dies. At that point there will be a new Treaty, enabling them to caucus against us (not because they want to hurt us, just because it is human nature)

We will either vote down the Treaty, causing a 2nd in/out referendum, or there will be such a brouahaha we will go straight to a second in/out referendum, and this time we will be Out, as the Tory government/Oppostion of the day will demand this, likewise the City, etc.

In the end the choice will be join the euro or leave the EU. And we will leave.

And it is possible the crunch will come even sooner than that. Look at today's horrendous immigration stats. Unsustainable.

All very possible. If we do vote Remain we'll find out very soon how much Europe wants to keep us. If they do a Dave on the day after iRef then the writing will be on the wall.

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

chestnut said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

the voters need simple easy to understand answers to things like jobs, travel, housing and the things that matter in their daily lives

Your house costs more because migration is out of hand?
Your wages are poor because you are being undercut?

I think you may be right.

Answer to first is build more homes and second the new National Living wage applies to all

My (voting Remain) granddaughter has just shared this on Facebook. It’s from a George Bevan. I’m not posting the whole of it, but as far as taking our jobs are concerned he says "maybe, if an immigrant with no contacts, no skills and no local knowledge of the language and/or culture can steal your job, maybe, just maybe, you're s**t at your job."

How sweet. You must be proud of the little darling.

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

chestnut said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

the voters need simple easy to understand answers to things like jobs, travel, housing and the things that matter in their daily lives

Your house costs more because migration is out of hand?
Your wages are poor because you are being undercut?

I think you may be right.

Answer to first is build more homes and second the new National Living wage applies to all

My (voting Remain) granddaughter has just shared this on Facebook. It’s from a George Bevan. I’m not posting the whole of it, but as far as taking our jobs are concerned he says "maybe, if an immigrant with no contacts, no skills and no local knowledge of the language and/or culture can steal your job, maybe, just maybe, you're s**t at your job."

I'm sure that will be a huge consolation to someone who has lost their job.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

Derbyshire: "Will we need visas to go to Europe?:
Diane James: "We just don't know."

A Leave vote is a complete leap in the dark. We know absolutely nothing about what it will end up delivering or even when we'd cease being an EU member state.

Stop it with your silly Remain attack lines.

It is not a complete leap in the dark. It means leaving the European Union.

But, even in the worst case, the worst that can happen is that our exports face WTO tariffs to the EU. Open Europe assesses our GDP would be 2.2% lower in 2030. That's it.

In reality, a UK-EU treaty on trade will be struck, and well you know it.

A vote to Leave is a mandate to negotiate a better deal, and for our politicians to try again and try harder.

I really admire your passion, but I disagree. If we vote Leave when will we leave? You don't know. You don't know if we'll retain free movement or scrap it, you don't know if we'll still contribute to the EU budget or be bound by EU laws. You don't even know who'll be doing the negotiating. It's a complete leap in the dark and one that could cause real damage to a very fragile European recovery. Again, we don't know.

It's a leap in the dark from being a declining debt-sodden island facing huge economic and social challenges to being a declining debt-sodden island facing huge economic and social challenges, that isn't in the EU. Economically, Osbrown does more damage in a standard budget.