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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : May 26th 2016
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : May 26th 2016
Northallerton South (Con defence) on Hambleton
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 27, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 26)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,414, 758 (49%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 762 (26%)
Labour 739, 654 (25%)
Candidates duly nominated:
0
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Comments
Remain is trouncing Leave here.
Diane James: "We just don't know."
I mean, they could have asked Douglas Carswell.
All we can offer is blood, toil, sweat and tears etc.
I'm happy to vote for Leave even if I'm the only bugger that does.
I've shared your blog post too with a couple of people I know. Both are fairly anti-political generally but found it interesting and moved them from DNV to Prob Leave.
Food for thought.
@alexgallagher2: Astonishing how this EU debate mirrors #indyref debate. UKIP, SNP, right-wing Tory. No real difference. https://t.co/P74qeS1b2X
@jessicaelgot: We don't know what will happen if we leave, says Diane James, there is no plan. Apparently speaking in support of leave.
It is not a complete leap in the dark. It means leaving the European Union.
But, even in the worst case, the worst that can happen is that our exports face WTO tariffs to the EU. Open Europe assesses our GDP would be 2.2% lower in 2030. That's it.
In reality, a UK-EU treaty on trade will be struck, and well you know it.
A vote to Leave is a mandate to negotiate a better deal, and for our politicians to try again and try harder.
Food for sharks ... the Conservative kind.
When's the pensioner only debate?
***** Betting Post *****
Evidencing the influence of PB.com, OGH's passed-on tip yesterday suggesting John Hickenlooper as Hillary's Veep, has seen his odds tumble from 80/1 to just 16/1 (with Laddies and Betfair Sportsbook) .... hardly any sort of value imho.
However what caught my eye was Betfair Exchange's price of 1000 (949/1 net of commission) against the aforementioned Hickenlooper becoming the Democratic POTUS nominee. Should he become her running mate, then he'd only be a heartbeat/resignation/removal/etc. away.
When I first looked a few minutes ago, there was £109 worth on offer at these not insubstantial odds (prepare to eat your heart out Morris btw) and after I'd taken the plunge, there should now be just £107 left!
DYOR.
Worst thing for me is Leavers moving to Remainers, particularly off the back of the Government's incessant fear propaganda. It really depresses me.
Where's our courage, self-belief and confidence we can build a brighter future for ourselves, and give leadership to those in Europe also desperate for self-governance again?
We mustn't let the buggers win.
Instead Cameron forced a vote through on the very question of our membership. The idea of negotiating a new deal after Leave is risible. Vote Leave - and we're Out.
People are just digging in and peddling the usual lines.
How often does anyone offer a surprising perspective on events?
Crap show;, crap ending!
Liam Fox was slow-witted and well below par.
The Remain campaign is game theory, designed to maximise fear and uncertainty precisely so you do vote Remain.
A deal would be done.
@britainelects
Scotland // On a second #IndyRef in the event of a vote for Brexit:
Support: 44%
Oppose: 48%
(via ICM)
Brexit no excuse for another Sindy.
Please be good enough to repeat the link thereto, so that those PBers who originally missed it may now acquaint themselves.
1. Economy
a. What is the difference between Single Market membership and Single Market access?
b. What is the cost, both financial and non-financial of Single Market membership versus cost of Single Market access?
c. Is there a difference between how the cost for membership is paid versus cost of access (i.e. is membership paid for by governments (every taxpayer) whereas access is paid by companies (every customer) trading into the Single Market)
d. Are there examples that can be given to show the cost of Single Market membership versus the cost of Single Market access?
e. The Prime Minister has said he would invoke Article 50 the day after a Leave result. At that point, let’s say on June 24, what difference will that make to our trading relationships with countries such as USA etc?
f. At what point in the future would there be a significant change to our trading relationships with countries such as the USA etc. in the event of a Leave vote and why?
g. Additionally, on June 24th, what difference will there be to our trading relationships with members of the EU in the event of a Leave vote?
h. At what point in the future would there be a significant change to our trading relationships with members of the EU in the event of a Leave vote, why and what do we expect the changes to be?
i. What are the risks to our Financial Services industry in the event of a Leave vote, what is the likelihood of that risk turning into an issue (i.e. becoming reality) and what are the mitigating factors that the UK government could take.
j. What are the risks to our Financial Services Industry in the event of a Remain vote what is the likelihood of that risk turning into an issue (i.e. becoming reality) and what are the mitigating factors that the UK government could take.
Swap UK for EU in each of his arguments. It's hilarious.
And that my dear fellow is the harsh truth.
You are probably right. But a 75% chance of a Remain victory does not equal an 100% chance.
@thomasknox: My head says, very reluctantly, REMAIN. My heart says LEAVE!!!!!!
"The heart has its reasons of which reason knows nothing".
1) Accession dates for Albania, Montenegro, Macdeonia, Serbia, Turkey:
2) Future budgets for Britain if they enter:
3) Shape and form of Common Immigration and Asylum Policy:
4) Future of Trial by Jury;
5) The EU Army?
6) Harmonisation plans for taxes, welfare ,minimum wage, pensions
7) Future grabs at Ukraine;
8) Date when we can expect free trade deals with US, Australia, Korea etc:
9) End date of Eurozone stagnation;
Or is Remain a leap in the dark?
great, another putinist for leave
Going to sign off now. Very tired today (and have been misfiring and tetchy all day) so I'm off to pack for the weekend, and read my new book.
Night all.
Being Norway or Switzerland is not as scary as being Albania.
Your wages are poor because you are being undercut?
I think you may be right.
Maybe on PB, but any leave majority in the country will rely on people who fear foreigners, Islam, terrorism and migration more than economic uncertainty.
Be serious.
These questions aren't meant for the Westminster Bubble. They are mean't for me to help me clarify the biggest democratic decision I've had to make for decades.
I am really disappointed at the level of debate over this referendum from politicians both nationally and internationally.
Vote Leave OTHERWISE this will happen. Vote Remain OTHERWISE this will happen.
How about:
Vote Leave BECAUSE this will happen. Vote Remain BECAUSE this will happen.
Both sides are trying to motivate us to move away from the other's position. Moving towards something is a much better motivator in my mind (being an optimist)
Secondly, EFTA/EEA does not mean that we need to pay benefits to non-citizens. Switzerland, for example, allows EU citizens to work there, but does not give benefits. If you remove the (in-work) benefits from migrants you massively cut their numbers. Plus, you can easily add compulsory health insurance for non-residents that means that the UK becomes a very unattractive destination for low-skilled migrants.
Thirdly and finally, there are a lot of businesses who regard their order of preference as EFTA/EEA > EU > CO. If it's CO vs EU, they come down with the devil they know.
So: no negative impacts on the ability of British firms to export (particularly services) to the EU. A massively reduced bill. No primacy of EU law. And substantially reduced immigration.
Really, I'm struggling to think of the disadvantages.
I find it hard to understand what right-wing voters would find attractive about the EU. It places restraints on our basic centre right majority, and means transferring powers away from that majority.
Oh, has Remain given up?
2. Sovereignty
a. It has been stated by Leave that we have voted against EU proposals and have been out voted 70 times. Are there any items that can be pointed to where any of these proposals have been to the significant detriment of the UK once becoming EU law
b. What is the role of the unelected Commissionaires versus the role of the elected MEPs
c. How often have the MEPs rejected proposals put forward by the Commissionaires (i.e. is there a democratic process at the heart of the EU that is working)
d. In the event of a Leave vote, what areas of law-making and court judgements would be different as opposed to areas that would continue to be influenced by the ECJ/ECHR
We're not building more homes, so the problem is only getting worse.
I find these student debates embarrassing. Very few seem to be able to put a coherent sentence together.
Victoria Derbyshire's constant interruptions were beyond irritating. There is no forum where a politician can complete a WHOLE sentence without interruption. I just feel as though I have wasted a whole hour of my precious life.
He has written a book on the various options and costs associated with leaving. It is called Flexcit and is avaliable as a free download from his website. There is also a slimmed down version called "the market solution".