MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

That would have to led to shy Kippers at the last GE, but the polls generally got the UKIP share close

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

Or people who are fed up with being called Quislings, traitors, unpatriotic, Europhiles and Eurofanatics deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote. More likely, I think.

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

That would have to led to shy Kippers at the last GE, but the polls generally got the UKIP share close

It's not quite the same though - whilst UKIP voters are I am sure claiming 'Leave' loudly and proudly, the difference is the 20% who aren't UKIP, but are considering Leave for whatever reason. The 'shy' Leave voter is likely to be there if anywhere.

malcolmg said:

JackW said:

rcs1000 said:

He has few friends on the Leave side, and none on the Remain. His career is reduced to journalism, adultery and increasingly pathetic whingeing.

Boris seems more suited to a position in the SNP cabinet then.

Is he that talented

In one department apparently ....

Polruan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?

Er....? If I call you a paedophile, does that make you a paedophile then?

Polruan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?

Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.

You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.

Or you could just be wrong.

Estobar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

For similar reasons to why the pollsters, and politicalbetting.com, so ballsed up that election. Admitting you were going to vote Tory was sufficiently toxic for people either to lie or claim not to know. Admitting you're going to vote leave has been branded toxic by Cameron and the establishment. But when I listen to people I sense a similar mood to pre-GE2015. As I say, I made a wad back then and I think the Leave vote is being underestimated in the current polls. I could be wrong. As they say, past performance is no ...

The GE2015 result was because, proverbially, on the way to the polling booth, voters realised that despite the feelgood factor of voting Labour, they didn't want to f&ck up the country by actually voting Labour.

In the same way this June, much as it is hugely satisfying shouting "cry freedom", voters will not want to f&ck up the country by voting Leave.

Plato_Says said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

I think Saatchi's have really got it wrong with their skinhead poster for OBV. They wanted PR controversy - they've got almost universal condemnation.

= PR controversy. So job done.

(I don't like the poster, myself.)

Webchat with Steve Hilton on mumsnet right now, if anyone is interested.

http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnet_live_events/2645261-Webchat-with-Steve-Hilton-ex-adviser-to-David-Cameron-and-author-of-More-Human-on-Thursday-26-May-at-1pm

His stated reason for wishing to leave the EU is similar to my main reason: "Neither side in this argument can predict the future 10, 20, 30 years from now so the question is what kind of arrangements will give us the best chance of handling whatever the future brings in a way that is best for our economy and society. I think the answer to that is a set up where we have maximum flexibility to respond to unpredictable things quickly and in a way we control rather than having to negotiate everything with a committee of 27 other (or more) countries with massively different circumstances."

chestnut said:

UKIP were understated by all the telephone polls last May, as was the right wing bloc of Tory/UKIP.

The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.

And UKIP were overstated by most of the online polls

Alanbrooke said:

Polruan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?

Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.

You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.

Or you could just be wrong.

Actually, you don't see Leave voters on the streets, as they have all been Sectioned....

Plato_Says said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

I think Saatchi's have really got it wrong with their skinhead poster for OBV. They wanted PR controversy - they've got almost universal condemnation.

That's neither big nor clever.

Its tempting to think that is how some of the more arrogant sneering remainers see the typical leaver.

chestnut said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

You may be right.

Percentage Declaring For Leave by 2015 Party Vote:

UKIP: 91.6 (phone) / 95.1 (online)
Tory: 50.3 (phone) / 58.7 (online)
Lab..: 28.5 (phone) / 33.7 (online)
Libs.: 22.6 (phone) / 34.3 (online)

Every major party has more declared leavers online than over the 'phone. UKIP is actually the smallest discrepancy.

I can't think of a reason why Tory, Lib and Lab would all be more more likely to say leave on the internet apart from the anonymity, like a polling booth.

How many people that like to cast themselves as progressive and centrist are being untrue in polite company?

What on earth do the remaining 8.4% of Kippers think they are in the party for?

Mr, Taffys, as fruitcakes, loonies and racists? Seems unlikely.

This is the equivalent graph for Conservatives (August 2014 to election week):

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596864382434418689

Estobar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Estobar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, but the Conservatives/Labour shares wrong, no?

Yes, but there was no evidence of shy anyone, just the samples weren't representative.

There's no evidence for that claim either

In one sense though you've just played into the argument. It's the liars and "don't know" (leavers) that are part responsible for skewing the samples.

We also have evidence against the Shy Tories theory. We can examine the Shy Tory theory by considering where there is likely to be social pressure on Conservative voters. For example, it seems unlikely that Tories would need to be shy in the heavily Conservative Shires but it is more plausible that they would be by shy in traditional Labour heartlands like Sunderland. Figure 2 shows that we actually observe the opposite pattern. The deviation between the proportion of BES respondents saying they voted Conservative and the actual proportion of voters who did is highest in strong Conservative areas where we would expect the least social pressure against voting Conservative.

http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/why-did-the-polls-go-wrong-by-jon-mellon-and-chris-prosser/#.V0buwfkrLIU

Yep I think the pollsters, like some of those on pb.com, have yet to face up properly to their ballsup. This is a good example. It's ludicrous to say people aren't shy in the tory shires: pollsters don't stand on Henley High Street these days you know TSE? If someone phones you up, and even on the internet, you're not likely to fess up to a position deemed toxic.

It's not rocket science but then I am trying to convince the person who wrote a Thread on Sunday 28th September 2014 in which he said: "Today extinguished the last hopes the Tories have of retaining power."

Have a good day ...

Scandalous misquoting of me there arsebot

foxinsoxuk said:

Plato_Says said:

I've mentioned before savvy EU migrants who come for just less than a year, then return home for a few weeks to reclaim their tax...

The number of migrants coming for between one and twelve months was 1.2 million in the year to the end of June 2014 which the ONS said was a “statistically significant” increase of 110,000 on the previous year.

Under double taxation rules they would still pay tax on UK earnings:

https://www.gov.uk/tax-foreign-income/overview

These are probaly seasonal and short term workers, returning home for winter. We get a number of Greek doctors doing the same.

In and out migrants - young, flexible, single and fit - are just about the ideal for us. They pay tax and take up very few resources.

And these for the LibDems and Greens:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596863407774654464
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596863047102267392

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

chestnut said:

UKIP were understated by all the telephone polls last May, as was the right wing bloc of Tory/UKIP.

The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.

And UKIP were overstated by most of the online polls

No, the online polls were closer to their GE share:
(chart is from August 2014 up to election week)

twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136

I'm talking about the final polls

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/10/so-were-there-really-shy-kippers/

Estobar said:

TOPPING said:

Estobar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

For similar reasons to why the pollsters, and politicalbetting.com, so ballsed up that election. Admitting you were going to vote Tory was sufficiently toxic for people either to lie or claim not to know. Admitting you're going to vote leave has been branded toxic by Cameron and the establishment. But when I listen to people I sense a similar mood to pre-GE2015. As I say, I made a wad back then and I think the Leave vote is being underestimated in the current polls. I could be wrong. As they say, past performance is no ...

The GE2015 result was because, proverbially, on the way to the polling booth, voters realised that despite the feelgood factor of voting Labour, they didn't want to f&ck up the country by actually voting Labour.

In the same way this June, much as it is hugely satisfying shouting "cry freedom", voters will not want to f&ck up the country by voting Leave.

If that was true people like me wouldn't have spent six months telling everyone the Tories were going to win until we were shouted down or hounded out. Didn't matter: I made a packet.

Truly you are a (rich) visionary.

Well done you.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

chestnut said:

UKIP were understated by all the telephone polls last May, as was the right wing bloc of Tory/UKIP.

The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.

And UKIP were overstated by most of the online polls

No, the online polls were closer to their GE share:
(chart is from August 2014 up to election week)

http://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136

I'm talking about the final polls

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/10/so-were-there-really-shy-kippers/

Er, the final polls are on the right-hand side of my chart. Online polls gave UKIP higher scores than phone.

MarqueeMark said:

Polruan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?

Er....? If I call you a paedophile, does that make you a paedophile then?

If disclosing certain opinions leads to society labelling me in a certain way, then by definition I am labelled in that way by society. One person applying the label doesn't mean much, most people applying it does. That's the crux of the racism vs immigration debate - there is a tension between the way in which "racism" is commonly understood and some of the desires to restrict immigration, to conserve "our" culture etc. To some degree there's going to end up being a choice being made between accepting the label "racist" or fighting to redefine it so that it's not applied to those of us who think it is appropriate to be able to control our borders so that there is a sensible employment market for "our" people (I'd just define that as "people who are already here" but it's a bit of a minefield). For now, the other way of avoiding the label is just to be "shy" and not disclose opinions that may be poorly regarded.

Obviously my comment was entirely facetious but there is a real factor to be considered given the emotive nature of the issue.

MarqueeMark said:

TOPPING said:

chestnut said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

You may be right.

Percentage Declaring For Leave by 2015 Party Vote:

UKIP: 91.6 (phone) / 95.1 (online)
Tory: 50.3 (phone) / 58.7 (online)
Lab..: 28.5 (phone) / 33.7 (online)
Libs.: 22.6 (phone) / 34.3 (online)

Every major party has more declared leavers online than over the 'phone. UKIP is actually the smallest discrepancy.

I can't think of a reason why Tory, Lib and Lab would all be more more likely to say leave on the internet apart from the anonymity, like a polling booth.

How many people that like to cast themselves as progressive and centrist are being untrue in polite company?

What on earth do the remaining 8.4% of Kippers think they are in the party for?

Shy Remainer Misogynists?

* get back behind those white goods, woman...*

get back behind those wonderful EU-standards-approved white goods...

Indigo said:

weejonnie said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I see the stories last night about the tampon tax turned out to be bollocks and the exemption is still on course to be implemented.

I'd be interested to see a link.

https://twitter.com/pierremoscovici/status/735747538188275712

I think that was Leave grasping at straws, desperate for some totemic EU issue that would expose Ozzy as a vassal. But the man has triumphed yet again. I just hope those who doubted him don't make their apologies too grovelling.

Read it again - it appears to promise something - but doesn't.

"I've got the EU to agree to look at possible ways of making the CAP more flexible".

"Right we've looked at the possible ways and we think that on balance we have it just about right."

Christ on a bike talk about #WeaselWords.

Just because they agree to do something doesn't mean they will.
If they look at something it doesn't mean they will draw any conclusions
Even if they look at it they might decide nothing is possible.
More flexible could just as easily mean more expensive as cheaper.

Welcome back, hope you had a nice break.

taffys said:

Plato_Says said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

I think Saatchi's have really got it wrong with their skinhead poster for OBV. They wanted PR controversy - they've got almost universal condemnation.

That's neither big nor clever.

Its tempting to think that is how some of the more arrogant sneering remainers see the typical leaver.

I think there's more than a kernel of truth in that. The client has an axe to grind, the agency is right-on and sympathetic. Reminds me of the Benetton Vietnam bloody army combats - did that make you want to buy jumpers? No. Did it stir up a giant fuss, yes.

.

Estobar said:

Anyone know how to insert an image on here, or does it have to link to an online URL?

<img src="url/to/image.jpg" />

For a link, but I don't think there's any way to upload.

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Estobar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Estobar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, but the Conservatives/Labour shares wrong, no?

Yes, but there was no evidence of shy anyone, just the samples weren't representative.

There's no evidence for that claim either

In one sense though you've just played into the argument. It's the liars and "don't know" (leavers) that are part responsible for skewing the samples.

We also have evidence against the Shy Tories theory. We can examine the Shy Tory theory by considering where there is likely to be social pressure on Conservative voters. For example, it seems unlikely that Tories would need to be shy in the heavily Conservative Shires but it is more plausible that they would be by shy in traditional Labour heartlands like Sunderland. Figure 2 shows that we actually observe the opposite pattern. The deviation between the proportion of BES respondents saying they voted Conservative and the actual proportion of voters who did is highest in strong Conservative areas where we would expect the least social pressure against voting Conservative.

http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/why-did-the-polls-go-wrong-by-jon-mellon-and-chris-prosser/#.V0buwfkrLIU

Yep I think the pollsters, like some of those on pb.com, have yet to face up properly to their ballsup. This is a good example. It's ludicrous to say people aren't shy in the tory shires: pollsters don't stand on Henley High Street these days you know TSE? If someone phones you up, and even on the internet, you're not likely to fess up to a position deemed toxic.

It's not rocket science but then I am trying to convince the person who wrote a Thread on Sunday 28th September 2014 in which he said: "Today extinguished the last hopes the Tories have of retaining power."

Have a good day ...

Scandalous misquoting of me there arsebot

Yes, you actually said "For those who were optimistic that the Tories would remain in power post May 2015, today probably extinguished those hopes."

Not sure there is any difference in the substance, but whatever.

Thanks for confirming English isn't your first language.

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

MarqueeMark said:

Alanbrooke said:

Polruan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?

Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.

You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.

Or you could just be wrong.

Actually, you don't see Leave voters on the streets, as they have all been Sectioned....

Yet they still post non-stop on here

Is a pity they aren't all out campaigning for Leave.

We do our best on PB.com

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

MarqueeMark said:

Alanbrooke said:

Polruan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?

Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.

You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.

Or you could just be wrong.

Actually, you don't see Leave voters on the streets, as they have all been Sectioned....

Yet they still post non-stop on here

Is a pity they aren't all out campaigning for Leave.

We do our best on PB.com

Campaigning is great, more PBers should try it.

You need to make sure you wear decent/comfortable footwear, I'll be happy to help PBers choose the right footwear for campaigning.

chestnut said:

AlastairMeeks said:

If Leave loses, David Cameron can presumably use Boris Johnson's direct assault today on the government's immigration policy as a reason for excluding him from the Cabinet? After all, Boris Johnson will find it impossible to maintain collective Cabinet responsibility on this subject now.

The Tories will have to drop all the nonsense about controlling immigration. If Remain wins, Conservative becomes a pro-immigration party.

All pro remain parties will,no way of controlling immigration unless you tell enough English to fcuk off.

So its come to a point where our own government can't stop mass immigration or don't want to,well the full signs must be nearly showing because I can't see how we going to cope with these sort of numbers coming here each year.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

MarqueeMark said:

Alanbrooke said:

Polruan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Estobar said:

I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.

For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.

Why?

How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.

So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?

Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.

You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.

Or you could just be wrong.

Actually, you don't see Leave voters on the streets, as they have all been Sectioned....

Yet they still post non-stop on here

Is a pity they aren't all out campaigning for Leave.

We do our best on PB.com

Campaigning is great, more PBers should try it.

You need to make sure you wear decent/comfortable footwear, I'll be happy to help PBers choose the right footwear for campaigning.

"Put on your red shoes and Vote for the Blues?"

Tykejohnno said:

chestnut said:

AlastairMeeks said:

If Leave loses, David Cameron can presumably use Boris Johnson's direct assault today on the government's immigration policy as a reason for excluding him from the Cabinet? After all, Boris Johnson will find it impossible to maintain collective Cabinet responsibility on this subject now.

The Tories will have to drop all the nonsense about controlling immigration. If Remain wins, Conservative becomes a pro-immigration party.

All pro remain parties will,no way of controlling immigration unless you tell enough English to fcuk off.

So its come to a point where our own government can't stop mass immigration or don't want to,well the full signs must be nearly showing because I can't see how we going to cope with these sort of numbers coming here each year.

If we vote Remain we will specifically have voted for free movement within the EU. No-one can claim that they were not asked. Of course, the government is still perfectly capable of controlling non-EU immigration numbers.

chestnut said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

chestnut said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

chestnut said:

UKIP were understated by all the telephone polls last May, as was the right wing bloc of Tory/UKIP.

The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.

And UKIP were overstated by most of the online polls

The potential failing with that line of thought is that right wing, eurosceptic opinion is not confined to UKIP. 2015 Tory voters are eurosceptic as a majority.

Put the two together and it can be seen that online polls were better at estimating the 'right wing eurosceptic' bloc

I'm sorry it is nonsense to lump Tories and UKIP into a homogeneous right wing bloc.

UKIP have and are picking up votes from Labour and the left.

Is like saying all Greens are Labour voters, the London Mayoral example is a recent example of that being nonsense.

When I looked at the cross tabs of preferences there was a very heavy leaning/sharing between Green and Labour, just as there was between Tory and UKIP.

I am not suggesting they are absolutely identical, but the broad read across and relative sympathies are there, especially on certain topics like Europe/Immigration.

The hardest to gauge tend to be Liberal Democrats. They seem to swing both ways.

Can you tell me the sample sizes of those cross tabs and MOE therein please

''Where does this trust come from that says even if it could, the government of any flavour would rein in immigration?''

Erm.....from the leader of the government telling us that immigration would be restricted to tens of thousands?

That is where the trust came from.

Trust that has now entirely evaporated. And not just on immigration. On everything.

Nobody in their right mind believes a word that comes out of David Cameron's mouth. Don;t take my word for it. That is what the polls say.

LucyJones said:

Webchat with Steve Hilton on mumsnet right now, if anyone is interested.

http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnet_live_events/2645261-Webchat-with-Steve-Hilton-ex-adviser-to-David-Cameron-and-author-of-More-Human-on-Thursday-26-May-at-1pm

His stated reason for wishing to leave the EU is similar to my main reason: "Neither side in this argument can predict the future 10, 20, 30 years from now so the question is what kind of arrangements will give us the best chance of handling whatever the future brings in a way that is best for our economy and society. I think the answer to that is a set up where we have maximum flexibility to respond to unpredictable things quickly and in a way we control rather than having to negotiate everything with a committee of 27 other (or more) countries with massively different circumstances."

Thanks for the linky. This reply caught my eye.

"I find it a mystery. I would have thought the corruption and corporate cronyism in Brussels, and the crushing of grassroots democratic freedoms that the EU represents would be total anathema to the left. I just don't understand why there aren't louder voices calling for us to leave.

As for the leave for democracy argument, it's easy for it to be dismissed as airy-fairy and conceptual compared to the gritty reality of how much more your holiday would cost - to pick one of the remain campaign's phoney scares. But in reality I think people are open to having a serious thoughtful conversation about what this decision means for the very long term. It's just that the campaigns are not really allowing them to do that. It's interesting that when we were testing different versions of our EU referendum voting guide at Crowdpac, we started with an assumption that it would need to be simple and quick but it turned out that the most popular version was the longest and most in-depth, and included many questions about the democratic aspects of this decision."

Overnight, I reversed my position on Gary Johnson 4 POTUS - I'm now a net backer @ 999/1

I think those odds represent value - I wouldn't consider laying over 50/1 right now.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/never-trump-2016-elections-libertarians-213917

Are there any other Gary Johnson backers on PB?

I didn't see IDS being "setup" for the 4th time on DP as I had already switched over to the Parliament channel. If anyone can stand up to this blatant bias, then IDS can.

I switched over to watch George Osborne give John McDonnell a pasting (not a fan of either man). There is so much bad behaviour in the HoC at the moment and lines being crossed, most of it being allowed by a very poor Speaker and Deputy Speakers.