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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Judging by his betting price collapse Boris’s back LEAVE de

SystemSystem Posts: 11,699
edited May 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Judging by his betting price collapse Boris’s back LEAVE decision hasn’t been good for his career ambitions

Yesterday the Daily Mail’s renowned columnist, Katie Hopkins had a big go at the ex-Mayor under the heading “I thought Boris was going to save Britain from the EU, instead he has turned out to be a big fat fraud.”

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,883
    Morning again all :)

    Theresa May has worked herself into a strong position irrespective of the result.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,883
    Hah, never or rarely been first.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,883
    And second - like Aidan O'Brien in the 1000 Guineas, will it be a 1-2-3 for Stodge ?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2016
    @HSJEditor: BREAKING: Huge leak reveals BMA plan to 'draw out' junior doctors dispute https://t.co/LTwbyRPh81 #juniorcontract

    EDIT: buy Hunt perhaps?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,611
    FPT

    You shouldn't do that.

    All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
    Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.

    Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,887
    Boris will go to the backbenches and wait for all Cameron and Osborne's EU lies to catch up with them.

    Events dear boy. Events.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/rosschawkins/status/735760862762258432

    @GuidoFawkes: Massive scoop by @ShaunLintern reveals thousands of BMA Junior Doctors Committee Whatsapp messages. Guess what? IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,611
    On topic, Boris' problem is that he is Boris. He's not serious enough about winning, until he gets his head down and works out if he is actually in favour of Leave then he won't be a good candidate for the leadership. I would only vote for him if it was a Boris/Osborne final two. In fact I think that's the only way he becomes leader, and surely the stop Boris camp would unite behind someone other than Osborne if they both made the final three.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    In barely eight weeks on the Brexit campaign trail, Johnson has damaged, if not shattered, that cultivated image. His transition from the mayor’s office to national politics is best known so far for missteps, gaffes and underwhelming results. No one’s counting out the ambitious politician from the longer race to lead the Conservative Party, but this wasn’t how the Boris coming out party was supposed to go.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-former-london-mayor-bumbles-at-brexit-debutante-ball-campaign-eu-referendum/
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Boris needs to do well in the cabinet job Dave gives him in the event of a Remain victory.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    On topic, Osborne is a like a Phoenix, he rises again when people keep on writing him off.

    Plus he did well at PMQs yesterday, got some zingers in at Labour which cheered up the Tory backbenchers.
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    FPT
    MaxPB said:

    You shouldn't do that.

    All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
    Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.

    Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
    Sovereignty might get you the political geek vote. That's about it. It may be important, but nobody cares. It's like Labour members confusing the fact that malign neoliberal economics is ruining peoples lives, and thinking that you win an election by talking about that fact, rather than the different outcomes that you will deliver to change their lives for the better. So the challenge for Leave is to analyse how this alleged lack of sovereignty is hurting people, and work out how to communicate those hurts in a way that is seen as more important than just worrying about how to pay the mortgage.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Boris needs to do well in the cabinet job Dave gives him in the event of a Remain victory.

    DoSaC
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/rosschawkins/status/735760862762258432

    @GuidoFawkes: Massive scoop by @ShaunLintern reveals thousands of BMA Junior Doctors Committee Whatsapp messages. Guess what? IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!

    Told ya ;)
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,887

    On topic, Osborne is a like a Phoenix, he rises again when people keep on writing him off.

    Plus he did well at PMQs yesterday, got some zingers in at Labour which cheered up the Tory backbenchers.

    PLEASE give the leadership to Osborne... So we can watch this unelectable clown destroyed in 2020;
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Crossover!
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    For the first few seconds, after reading this tweet, I thought Boris actually had a bowl of figs in front of him. Because, you know, he does fruit.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/735762206759911424
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    MaxPB said:

    FPT

    You shouldn't do that.

    All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
    Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.

    Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
    There is of course the argument that you attract more flies with shit than you do with honey
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Boris needs to do well in the cabinet job Dave gives him in the event of a Remain victory.

    In that case I guess never-knowingly-forgiving-Dave will give him Health.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Polruan said:

    Boris needs to do well in the cabinet job Dave gives him in the event of a Remain victory.

    In that case I guess never-knowingly-forgiving-Dave will give him Health.
    Northern Ireland is my suggestion.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/rosschawkins/status/735760862762258432

    @GuidoFawkes: Massive scoop by @ShaunLintern reveals thousands of BMA Junior Doctors Committee Whatsapp messages. Guess what? IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!

    No no no, it must be wrong, it was all about the patient safety on a Saturday....Also for smart people, you would think you might want to be careful about what you write anywhere anytime. It only takes one person to lose their phone or decide they don't like one of the group.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    Theresa May has worked herself into a strong position irrespective of the result.

    Theresa May's new moves to reform fire brigades has a hint of political motivation about it. Closing rural fire stations might not play well with Conservative backbenchers representing those areas.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,058
    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's tyhe current map of France with petrol stations that have run out of fuel.

    Euro 2016 looks a real fan fest if you like walking.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/le-scan-eco/dessous-chiffres/2016/05/21/29006-20160521ARTFIG00134-decouvrez-la-carte-des-penuries-de-carburants-dans-toute-la-france.php

    Is a tribute to D-Day. Cutting off the essential supplies
    I had to laugh when the power stations were taken out on strike, now you can't even charge your electric car.

    If there's one thing the CGT understand it's how to really screw up the country.

    And they don't actually give a shit.
    16/19 nuke plants out today - wow.
    You want to know what's equally amazing: despite the CGT strike, France is exporting electricity to the UK right now.
    It would be quite funny if they had to pull the plug on the interconnector and we had power cuts the week before th e referendum- unlikely though at this time of year.
    Frankly, UK electricity demand is so aneamic right now, that pretty much the entire UK coal fleet is idle. That around 20GW of power stations where the workers have nothing to do, but perform routing maintenance.

    See: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    I would like to point out that I was the only person on politicalbetting (literally the only one) who said we would not have electricity shortages. I would like some respect for my energy forecasting skills :lol:
    It is notable on Gridwatch that France with a similar population has usage 50% higher than us -51 vs 34 gig. (although the domestic demand is actually 41 gig as 20% of output is being exported to various countries) but that stlill leaves them using 20% more than us domestically
    There are three broad reasons for that:

    1. Southern France has peak power demand in the summer, thanks to warmer temperatures and air conditioning. We are therefore comparing trough UK power demand with average French power demand.

    2. France has a bigger industrial and manufacturing base than we do in the UK, often attracted by the low electricity rates offered to big power users. (EDF has more power than it can shake a stick at, and it's all low marginal cost, which means that industrial users in France - who can guarantee a certain amount of demand - suck up a lot of power).

    3. The UK has been a lot more advanced at pushing energy saving measures than France. While there is some catch up now, new homes in the UK are simply more energy efficient than in France.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Polruan said:

    Boris needs to do well in the cabinet job Dave gives him in the event of a Remain victory.

    In that case I guess never-knowingly-forgiving-Dave will give him Health.
    Northern Ireland is my suggestion.
    Governor of Southern Thule!
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    Scott_P said:

    @HSJEditor: BREAKING: Huge leak reveals BMA plan to 'draw out' junior doctors dispute https://t.co/LTwbyRPh81 #juniorcontract

    EDIT: buy Hunt perhaps?

    Quite possibly. Not for the first time, this looks like a Tory race that doesn't favour the most obvious candidates.

    That said, at what point does Boris and Osborne become value? 6/1 for the ex-mayor doesn't sound far off.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,985
    GIN1138 said:

    On topic, Osborne is a like a Phoenix, he rises again when people keep on writing him off.

    Plus he did well at PMQs yesterday, got some zingers in at Labour which cheered up the Tory backbenchers.

    PLEASE give the leadership to Osborne... So we can watch this unelectable clown destroyed in 2020;
    Just imagine if the Tories go for Osborne and Jezza stands aside for McDonnell..

    I'd be laughing, but it definitely won't be all the way to the bank :D
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/rosschawkins/status/735760862762258432

    @GuidoFawkes: Massive scoop by @ShaunLintern reveals thousands of BMA Junior Doctors Committee Whatsapp messages. Guess what? IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!

    No no no, it must be wrong, it was all about the patient safety on a Saturday....Also for smart people, you would think you might want to be careful about what you write anywhere anytime. It only takes one person to lose their phone or decide they don't like one of the group.
    Is this the right way round? Surely it was Hunt's position that it was all about safety and the BMA was complaining about losing overtime pay. Not sure that Guido has understood this.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420

    Polruan said:

    Boris needs to do well in the cabinet job Dave gives him in the event of a Remain victory.

    In that case I guess never-knowingly-forgiving-Dave will give him Health.
    Northern Ireland is my suggestion.
    Someone (I forget who - sorry) suggested Tory party chairman, presumably combined with minister without (meaningful) portfolio. It'd be a good option.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    RobD said:

    Polruan said:

    Boris needs to do well in the cabinet job Dave gives him in the event of a Remain victory.

    In that case I guess never-knowingly-forgiving-Dave will give him Health.
    Northern Ireland is my suggestion.
    Governor of Southern Thule!
    Her Majesty's Most Excellent Ambassador Extraordinaire & Plenipotentiary To The Islamic State is my second choice.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Odd thing is, PB is usually spammed to death with links to articles by Katie Hopkins, this piece wasn't, can't imagine why.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,058

    Boris needs to do well in the cabinet job Dave gives him in the event of a Remain victory.

    There won't be a cabinet job.

    There may well be promotions for Patel, Gove, Raab, and Leadsom. But there won't be a promotion for Johnson.

    He has few friends on the Leave side, and none on the Remain. His career is reduced to journalism, adultery and increasingly pathetic whingeing.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    RobD said:

    Polruan said:

    Boris needs to do well in the cabinet job Dave gives him in the event of a Remain victory.

    In that case I guess never-knowingly-forgiving-Dave will give him Health.
    Northern Ireland is my suggestion.
    Governor of Southern Thule!
    Her Majesty's Most Excellent Ambassador Extraordinaire & Plenipotentiary To The Islamic State is my second choice.
    ex officio Governor of Southern Thule ;)
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    rcs1000 said:

    Boris needs to do well in the cabinet job Dave gives him in the event of a Remain victory.

    There won't be a cabinet job.

    There may well be promotions for Patel, Gove, Raab, and Leadsom. But there won't be a promotion for Johnson.

    He has few friends on the Leave side, and none on the Remain. His career is reduced to journalism, adultery and increasingly pathetic whingeing.
    Priti isn't getting promoted. She's pissed off Dave and quite a lot of leaver Tories too with how she's conducted herself.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503
    Boris needs to play the debates very, very straight, and not for laughs.

    If I were him I'd be practicing each evening with an image consultant and speech/debating coach.

    It's his last chance to make an impact as a serious politician and potential national leader.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,611
    Polruan said:

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    You shouldn't do that.

    All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
    Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.

    Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
    Sovereignty might get you the political geek vote. That's about it. It may be important, but nobody cares. It's like Labour members confusing the fact that malign neoliberal economics is ruining peoples lives, and thinking that you win an election by talking about that fact, rather than the different outcomes that you will deliver to change their lives for the better. So the challenge for Leave is to analyse how this alleged lack of sovereignty is hurting people, and work out how to communicate those hurts in a way that is seen as more important than just worrying about how to pay the mortgage.
    Well the point is that Leave needs to swing just 5-7% from Remain to win. The people who have been swayed on the economics are not going to be won back given the firepower the government has on the subject, the only thing to say is that "Britain will remain a leading global economy in or out of the EU, the politically motivated attacks on the economy by the government is doing more damage to us than Brexit". Leave can't and never will win on economics, simply because in the short term there is no doubt that we would be worse off.

    Very much like the Tories targetted the 80-90k marginal voters who delivered them a majority last year, Leave needs to find a message that will work for the 5-7% that they need to win. Reluctant remainers, in my experience, tend to see the remain choice as a lesser of two evils and believe that if the EU does federalise we will vote to leave at that point. Making it clear that this is our one chance to leave and that another won't be coming because Dave has given away our veto is something that could work.
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    rcs1000 said:


    He has few friends on the Leave side, and none on the Remain. His career is reduced to journalism, adultery and increasingly pathetic whingeing.

    But other than that you're a fan?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    On Mike's leader, I'm far from convinced that Osborne has a Brown-like bloc of MPs that could propel him to the final two; still less one that could propel a protege of his there. I wouldn't be at all surprised if neither he nor Boris made it. The implication of that is that the run-off could easily be between two relatively unfancied runners, both chosen in order to stop Bosborne.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,058

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    If someone said: you can either have Herpes, or be stuck in a lift for an hour with Katie Hopkins, I genuinely don't know which one I'd choose.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    I'm really struggling to see how Katie Hopkins being unpleasant could ever be called remarkable.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,611
    Wanderer said:

    For the first few seconds, after reading this tweet, I thought Boris actually had a bowl of figs in front of him. Because, you know, he does fruit.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/735762206759911424

    Yes I did as well! Thought he was going to bring up some kind of EU regulation on fig farming!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,058

    On Mike's leader, I'm far from convinced that Osborne has a Brown-like bloc of MPs that could propel him to the final two; still less one that could propel a protege of his there. I wouldn't be at all surprised if neither he nor Boris made it. The implication of that is that the run-off could easily be between two relatively unfancied runners, both chosen in order to stop Bosborne.

    Agreed, I would be selling both Osborne and Johnson here.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503

    On topic, Osborne is a like a Phoenix, he rises again when people keep on writing him off.

    Plus he did well at PMQs yesterday, got some zingers in at Labour which cheered up the Tory backbenchers.

    More like Japanese knotweed.

    No one likes it, but once it's rooted it's impossible to get rid of.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    rcs1000 said:

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    If someone said: you can either have Herpes, or be stuck in a lift for an hour with Katie Hopkins, I genuinely don't know which one I'd choose.
    Catching herpes is usually fun, and I can't see how being stuck in a lift with Ms Hopkins can be fun.

    So I vote herpes
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,957
    I have to day the betting markets around the referendum are totally perplexing. Why Leave is being given such a low chance of victory is beyond me. And now Osborne is back to being favourite for the Tory leadership. It makes no sense.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,985
    edited May 2016

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    That's one of the chief reasons I head about the internet with an adblocker.

    I think Michael Gove should sue her - the caption on him is surely beyond the pale with respect to our libel laws ?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm deep red on both George Osborne and Boris Johnson. I'm very happy with that position.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,611
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    On topic, Osborne is a like a Phoenix, he rises again when people keep on writing him off.

    Plus he did well at PMQs yesterday, got some zingers in at Labour which cheered up the Tory backbenchers.

    PLEASE give the leadership to Osborne... So we can watch this unelectable clown destroyed in 2020;
    Just imagine if the Tories go for Osborne and Jezza stands aside for McDonnell..

    I'd be laughing, but it definitely won't be all the way to the bank :D
    A ticket to Zurich with a suitcase full of money will solve that problem!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503
    rcs1000 said:

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    If someone said: you can either have Herpes, or be stuck in a lift for an hour with Katie Hopkins, I genuinely don't know which one I'd choose.
    You might be lucky and get both if you did the dirty whilst in the lift to while away that hour?
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    MaxPB said:

    Polruan said:

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Sovereignty might get you the political geek vote. That's about it. It may be important, but nobody cares. It's like Labour members confusing the fact that malign neoliberal economics is ruining peoples lives, and thinking that you win an election by talking about that fact, rather than the different outcomes that you will deliver to change their lives for the better. So the challenge for Leave is to analyse how this alleged lack of sovereignty is hurting people, and work out how to communicate those hurts in a way that is seen as more important than just worrying about how to pay the mortgage.
    Well the point is that Leave needs to swing just 5-7% from Remain to win. The people who have been swayed on the economics are not going to be won back given the firepower the government has on the subject, the only thing to say is that "Britain will remain a leading global economy in or out of the EU, the politically motivated attacks on the economy by the government is doing more damage to us than Brexit". Leave can't and never will win on economics, simply because in the short term there is no doubt that we would be worse off.

    Very much like the Tories targetted the 80-90k marginal voters who delivered them a majority last year, Leave needs to find a message that will work for the 5-7% that they need to win. Reluctant remainers, in my experience, tend to see the remain choice as a lesser of two evils and believe that if the EU does federalise we will vote to leave at that point. Making it clear that this is our one chance to leave and that another won't be coming because Dave has given away our veto is something that could work.
    "Do this scary thing today otherwise you won't be able to stop that scary thing in a decade" just doesn't work though. People are too short term. It's why parties with a long-term privatisation agenda get elected despite a clear majority being really unhappy when the privatisations actually happen, for example. This is a bit more serious but it's the same point.

    I think it has to come down to employment. "Jobs for your children" is ultimately an anti-immigration slogan, but it's not a blatantly nasty "keep the foreigners out" line which has the repellent effect you accurately describe.
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    No doubt the latest incarnation of Glenda Slagg will be singing Johnson's praises in the near future. The sausage had a lucky escape.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,957
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    On topic, Osborne is a like a Phoenix, he rises again when people keep on writing him off.

    Plus he did well at PMQs yesterday, got some zingers in at Labour which cheered up the Tory backbenchers.

    PLEASE give the leadership to Osborne... So we can watch this unelectable clown destroyed in 2020;
    Just imagine if the Tories go for Osborne and Jezza stands aside for McDonnell..

    I'd be laughing, but it definitely won't be all the way to the bank :D

    Lowest turnout GE in history?

  • Options
    LennonLennon Posts: 1,736

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    On topic, Osborne is a like a Phoenix, he rises again when people keep on writing him off.

    Plus he did well at PMQs yesterday, got some zingers in at Labour which cheered up the Tory backbenchers.

    PLEASE give the leadership to Osborne... So we can watch this unelectable clown destroyed in 2020;
    Just imagine if the Tories go for Osborne and Jezza stands aside for McDonnell..

    I'd be laughing, but it definitely won't be all the way to the bank :D

    Lowest turnout GE in history?

    Phoenix Farron?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,058

    rcs1000 said:

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    If someone said: you can either have Herpes, or be stuck in a lift for an hour with Katie Hopkins, I genuinely don't know which one I'd choose.
    You might be lucky and get both if you did the dirty whilst in the lift to while away that hour?
    You're a sick man, Mr Royale.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503

    I'm deep red on both George Osborne and Boris Johnson. I'm very happy with that position.

    Me too.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,611

    rcs1000 said:

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    If someone said: you can either have Herpes, or be stuck in a lift for an hour with Katie Hopkins, I genuinely don't know which one I'd choose.
    You might be lucky and get both if you did the dirty whilst in the lift to while away that hour?
    Someone pass me the mind bleach please.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    If someone said: you can either have Herpes, or be stuck in a lift for an hour with Katie Hopkins, I genuinely don't know which one I'd choose.
    You might be lucky and get both if you did the dirty whilst in the lift to while away that hour?
    You're a sick man, Mr Royale.
    :smile:
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Yes, one of the few good things to come out of the referendum shenanigans is that the conundrum of whether Boris would be a fantastic asset or a disastrous liability as party leader has now been decisively resolved. So that will simplify the decision.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,902
    The decision to campaign for Leave was okay. Boris' actions since are what has killed his leadership chances, not least his recent desire to grab a bit of that Ken Livingstone magic.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    FPT.

    @YBarddCwsc said:

    UKIP does not have the political skills to capitalise on the discontent.

    That is very clear from the Welsh Assembly. UKIP ***could*** have inflicted huge damage on Labour in the Valleys. They didn't ... because Hamilton and Reckless are exactly the wrong type of people to crystallise this discontent. They are from a different world, alien life-forms, to most people in the Valleys.

    UKIP can't evolve from what it is now to where it needs to be.

    My point remains -- if the result for Leave is 45 per cent or more -- then that is an incredible opportunity for someone.

    In politics, if there is a huge opportunity, someone will grasp it.

    After all, Labour were a Eurosceptic party. It was the chancer Blair who made them so vociferously Europhile. A chancer whose scanty and tarnished reputation is about to be shredded some more.
    ------------------------------------
    I concur that at present UKIP doesn't have the political nous or the skills capitalise on the referendum, whatever the result. And that is why I ceased being a member of UKIP.


    Who's the rotter that changed thread without warning? ;)
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    That's one of the chief reasons I head about the internet with an adblocker.

    I think Michael Gove should sue her - the caption on him is surely beyond the pale with respect to our libel laws ?
    Gove's optician, perhaps.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    Polruan said:

    Boris needs to do well in the cabinet job Dave gives him in the event of a Remain victory.

    In that case I guess never-knowingly-forgiving-Dave will give him Health.
    Northern Ireland is my suggestion.
    Someone (I forget who - sorry) suggested Tory party chairman, presumably combined with minister without (meaningful) portfolio. It'd be a good option.
    I think several of us have. It's a perfect fit for him.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    One thing about Boris that doesn't get aired that much is whether Tory Leave MPs see his conversion as genuine. If I were a Tory Leaver I would want to be damn sure that I replaced Cameron with a true Brexit believer. Once have installed the new leader it's going to be hard to replace him before the election if he seems to be going wobbly. I guess that would point more towards someone like Patel rather than Boris?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    @YBarddCwsc said:

    UKIP does not have the political skills to capitalise on the discontent.

    That is very clear from the Welsh Assembly. UKIP ***could*** have inflicted huge damage on Labour in the Valleys. They didn't ... because Hamilton and Reckless are exactly the wrong type of people to crystallise this discontent. They are from a different world, alien life-forms, to most people in the Valleys.

    UKIP can't evolve from what it is now to where it needs to be.

    My point remains -- if the result for Leave is 45 per cent or more -- then that is an incredible opportunity for someone.

    In politics, if there is a huge opportunity, someone will grasp it.

    After all, Labour were a Eurosceptic party. It was the chancer Blair who made them so vociferously Europhile. A chancer whose scanty and tarnished reputation is about to be shredded some more.
    ------------------------------------
    I concur that at present UKIP doesn't have the political nous or the skills capitalise on the referendum, whatever the result. And that is why I ceased being a member of UKIP.


    Who's the rotter that changed thread without warning? ;)

    UKIP's problem is that Farage mixes Euroscepticism with golf club Toryism. Great for attracting Conservative rebels like Hamilton, Carswell and Reckless but it is an electoral dead-end.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Pulpstar said:

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    That's one of the chief reasons I head about the internet with an adblocker.

    I think Michael Gove should sue her - the caption on him is surely beyond the pale with respect to our libel laws ?
    Gove's optician, perhaps.
    What did Katie write? Please do provide a link.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,957
    Jonathan said:

    The decision to campaign for Leave was okay. Boris' actions since are what has killed his leadership chances, not least his recent desire to grab a bit of that Ken Livingstone magic.

    Boris's basic problem is that he is not very good at politics. Beating the anti-Semitic and hypocritical Ken Livingstone is one thing, effectively advocating a cause and a set of beliefs is quite another. You have to be extraordinarily motivated, very good on detail and willing to put in the leg work. Boris is none of these things. He thinks being "hilarious" is enough. Farage is a far better advocate for Leave than he is. If the Tories are finally working Boris out, that's more bad news for Labour. That said, the line-up of Cameron replacements is not exactly awe-inspiring. There is no-one on the list that a half competent opposition would fear. When even Priti Patel has backers it tells you that the Tory talent pool does not run deep.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    On Mike's leader, I'm far from convinced that Osborne has a Brown-like bloc of MPs that could propel him to the final two; still less one that could propel a protege of his there. I wouldn't be at all surprised if neither he nor Boris made it. The implication of that is that the run-off could easily be between two relatively unfancied runners, both chosen in order to stop Bosborne.

    I can't see Osborne or Boris in final two either. Neither are suited - and Osborne has appalling polling.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Mind you, say what you like about Katie Hopkins, but her suggestion in that article that Boris is angling for a role in Top Gear is brilliant. He's just about the only bloke in the world who could out-Clarkson Clarkson.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    That's one of the chief reasons I head about the internet with an adblocker.

    I think Michael Gove should sue her - the caption on him is surely beyond the pale with respect to our libel laws ?
    Gove's optician, perhaps.
    What did Katie write? Please do provide a link.
    Link's in the OP (click Katie Hopkins) -- scroll down to photos of Gove and IDS.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Mind you, say what you like about Katie Hopkins, but her suggestion in that article that Boris is angling for a role in Top Gear is brilliant. He's just about the only bloke in the world who could out-Clarkson Clarkson.

    Surely the obvious job for Boris is next leader of UKIP.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If anything the comment about IDS is still more unpleasant, poking fun at his genetic inheritance (which is no doubt in considerable part derived from his Japanese ancestry).
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Wanderer said:

    Mind you, say what you like about Katie Hopkins, but her suggestion in that article that Boris is angling for a role in Top Gear is brilliant. He's just about the only bloke in the world who could out-Clarkson Clarkson.

    Surely the obvious job for Boris is next leader of UKIP.
    Too liberal for UKIP.

    I'm sure his past policy for an amnesty for illegal immigrants will be loved by the Kippers
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    I'm surprised more tories don't like Priti Patel
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Wanderer said:

    Mind you, say what you like about Katie Hopkins, but her suggestion in that article that Boris is angling for a role in Top Gear is brilliant. He's just about the only bloke in the world who could out-Clarkson Clarkson.

    Surely the obvious job for Boris is next leader of UKIP.
    Well he could do both, of course. Same target audience.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    There's more chance of Shami Chakrabarti leading Ukip than Boris
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    Mind you, say what you like about Katie Hopkins, but her suggestion in that article that Boris is angling for a role in Top Gear is brilliant. He's just about the only bloke in the world who could out-Clarkson Clarkson.

    Surely the obvious job for Boris is next leader of UKIP.
    Too liberal for UKIP.

    I'm sure his past policy for an amnesty for illegal immigrants will be loved by the Kippers
    Well, his past policies also included staying in the EU. That's all wonk stuff anyway. What matters is how he holds a pint.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jamesrbuk: Leading pro-Brexit MP Gisela Stuart reported to parliamentary authorities over undeclared company stake https://t.co/6sCtDSmkmw
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    Mind you, say what you like about Katie Hopkins, but her suggestion in that article that Boris is angling for a role in Top Gear is brilliant. He's just about the only bloke in the world who could out-Clarkson Clarkson.

    Surely the obvious job for Boris is next leader of UKIP.
    Well he could do both, of course. Same target audience.
    lol
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Joint highest EU immigration ever, big rises from Bulgaria and Romania.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mel Onn suggests there should be a Brexit debate between Boris and Boris
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Scott_P said:

    Mel Onn suggests there should be a Brexit debate between Boris and Boris

    Mel Onn quotes 'pro-EU Boris' previous praise for Turkish membership of the EU - AND 'Brexit-Boris's poem about Erdogan + sex with a goat
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,914

    On topic, Osborne is a like a Phoenix, he rises again when people keep on writing him off.

    Plus he did well at PMQs yesterday, got some zingers in at Labour which cheered up the Tory backbenchers.

    Some turds manage to keep rising to the surface, however hard you shove them down.

    *11%* think he's Prime Ministerial; 65% don't.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013

    Jonathan said:

    The decision to campaign for Leave was okay. Boris' actions since are what has killed his leadership chances, not least his recent desire to grab a bit of that Ken Livingstone magic.

    Boris's basic problem is that he is not very good at politics. Beating the anti-Semitic and hypocritical Ken Livingstone is one thing, effectively advocating a cause and a set of beliefs is quite another. You have to be extraordinarily motivated, very good on detail and willing to put in the leg work. Boris is none of these things. He thinks being "hilarious" is enough. Farage is a far better advocate for Leave than he is. If the Tories are finally working Boris out, that's more bad news for Labour. That said, the line-up of Cameron replacements is not exactly awe-inspiring. There is no-one on the list that a half competent opposition would fear. When even Priti Patel has backers it tells you that the Tory talent pool does not run deep.
    Good point.

    "Boris's only achievement in frontline politics is beating Ken Livingstone twice." Focuses the mind about him.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    I would like to point out that I was the only person on politicalbetting (literally the only one) who said we would not have electricity shortages. I would like some respect for my energy forecasting skills :lol:

    We thought it was all wind on your part .... :smile:
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Sean_F said:

    On topic, Osborne is a like a Phoenix, he rises again when people keep on writing him off.

    Plus he did well at PMQs yesterday, got some zingers in at Labour which cheered up the Tory backbenchers.

    Some turds manage to keep rising to the surface, however hard you shove them down.

    *11%* think he's Prime Ministerial; 65% don't.
    Polls schmolls. They aren't static. I suspect if Remain wins Dave and George will get a boost in their personal polling
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,509

    Sean_F said:

    On topic, Osborne is a like a Phoenix, he rises again when people keep on writing him off.

    Plus he did well at PMQs yesterday, got some zingers in at Labour which cheered up the Tory backbenchers.

    Some turds manage to keep rising to the surface, however hard you shove them down.

    *11%* think he's Prime Ministerial; 65% don't.
    Polls schmolls. They aren't static. I suspect if Remain wins Dave and George will get a boost in their personal polling
    Like Scottish Labour did after Better Together won the Indyref?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Congratulations to Mr. Stodge, on his first first.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Fascinating how tories love taking sides yet change so quickly. In 2020 the people they're slagging off now will be back in favour again.

    I suppose it saves thinking about things.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    2020 General Election prediction

    Osborne V Benn........
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    He has few friends on the Leave side, and none on the Remain. His career is reduced to journalism, adultery and increasingly pathetic whingeing.

    Boris seems more suited to a position in the SNP cabinet then.

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,355
    The campaign from both sides has been thoroughly depressing and just makes you want it to go away. I do not think anyone has enhanced their reputation and on something as important as this is it should makes all of us shake our heads in dismay. I read Max Hastings article in today's Daily Mail and it is a good read and virtually encapsulates my own view, as as less than enthusiastic remainer. It does seem that there is no appetite for the EU but also there are big doubts with leave singularly failing to paint a unified picture of how we could achieve a successful Brexit. Leave have had long enough to formulate a Norway style deal with some contribution and free movement of labour, but regaining control and sovereignty. If this proposition had been put forward from day one I am fairly certain I would have voted to leave but I am not prepared to 'take the leap in the dark' only to find that the Norway style deal is agreed and that there will be little difference in the ability to control immigration. Leave say this is our last chance but the EU will face disaster on many fronts in the coming months and years and it is incumbent on eurosceptics to plan for the day when they will get a further opportunity, which may well be supported by the majority.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/rosschawkins/status/735760862762258432

    @GuidoFawkes: Massive scoop by @ShaunLintern reveals thousands of BMA Junior Doctors Committee Whatsapp messages. Guess what? IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!

    http://www.hsj.co.uk/topics/workforce/exclusive-huge-leak-reveals-bma-plan-to-draw-out-junior-doctors-dispute/7005113.article?blocktitle=News&contentID=15303

    The full article makes very interesting reading.

    Will this get the attention it deserves? Sadly it is unlikely. But it proves that money was always, always, always at the heart of this.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I read Katie Hopkins column and found it quite brilliant; herpes not withstanding.
    The Leave campaign deserves the scorn heaped upon it.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,983

    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    @YBarddCwsc said:

    UKIP does not have the political skills to capitalise on the discontent.

    That is very clear from the Welsh Assembly. UKIP ***could*** have inflicted huge damage on Labour in the Valleys. They didn't ... because Hamilton and Reckless are exactly the wrong type of people to crystallise this discontent. They are from a different world, alien life-forms, to most people in the Valleys.

    UKIP can't evolve from what it is now to where it needs to be.

    My point remains -- if the result for Leave is 45 per cent or more -- then that is an incredible opportunity for someone.

    In politics, if there is a huge opportunity, someone will grasp it.

    After all, Labour were a Eurosceptic party. It was the chancer Blair who made them so vociferously Europhile. A chancer whose scanty and tarnished reputation is about to be shredded some more.
    ------------------------------------
    I concur that at present UKIP doesn't have the political nous or the skills capitalise on the referendum, whatever the result. And that is why I ceased being a member of UKIP.


    Who's the rotter that changed thread without warning? ;)

    UKIP's problem is that Farage mixes Euroscepticism with golf club Toryism. Great for attracting Conservative rebels like Hamilton, Carswell and Reckless but it is an electoral dead-end.
    If you think Carswell is in any way a golf club Tory you are very misinformed. Most of his ideas about modernising our political system would be anathema to the golf club Tory set.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @RCS1000
    "The UK has been a lot more advanced at pushing energy saving measures than France. While there is some catch up now, new homes in the UK are simply more energy efficient than in France."

    Mr. Robert, I am at a loss with this. We are talking about electricity consumption are we not? I have my home insulated to the hilt, but that doesn't change by one watt my electricity consumption. My computer needs the same amount of power, it still gets dark at the same time, my kettle needs the same amount of power so I can make tea.

    My cousin, a retired vicar, has spent about 30 grand taking his house off line, solar panels on the roof for electricity and a heat exchanger in the garden to provide heating and hot water. He now gets a cheque from the electricity company every quarter rather than a bill and does not have a gas boiler at all*. Now if we had building regs that forced that sort of set up on all new builds I'd concede to you had a point, but we do not.

    *Given his advanced age I really do not know why he bothered. He will never live long enough to recover his investment and their are no children to inherit.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    I cling to the hope that what are witnessing from Boris is a Mohammed Ali-worthy example of rope a dope, letting Cameron and Osborne shoot off all their weaponry before purdah starts, with Boris (tag-teamed with Gove) doing a master class in forensic demolition of the bollocks that Remain's top two have spouted for the past month or more.

    It's a hope.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Roger, I think that's unlikely. But purely on individuals, Benn would win that by a distance.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    rcs1000 said:

    What a remarkably unpleasant article by Katie Hopkins.

    If someone said: you can either have Herpes, or be stuck in a lift for an hour with Katie Hopkins, I genuinely don't know which one I'd choose.
    Catching herpes is usually fun, and I can't see how being stuck in a lift with Ms Hopkins can be fun.

    So I vote herpes

    Catching herpes is usually fun, and I can't see how being stuck in a lift with Ms Hopkins can be fun.

    How do you think you got the herpes ?
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    @YBarddCwsc said:

    UKIP does not have the political skills to capitalise on the discontent.

    That is very clear from the Welsh Assembly. UKIP ***could*** have inflicted huge damage on Labour in the Valleys. They didn't ... because Hamilton and Reckless are exactly the wrong type of people to crystallise this discontent. They are from a different world, alien life-forms, to most people in the Valleys.

    UKIP can't evolve from what it is now to where it needs to be.

    My point remains -- if the result for Leave is 45 per cent or more -- then that is an incredible opportunity for someone.

    In politics, if there is a huge opportunity, someone will grasp it.

    After all, Labour were a Eurosceptic party. It was the chancer Blair who made them so vociferously Europhile. A chancer whose scanty and tarnished reputation is about to be shredded some more.
    ------------------------------------
    I concur that at present UKIP doesn't have the political nous or the skills capitalise on the referendum, whatever the result. And that is why I ceased being a member of UKIP.


    Who's the rotter that changed thread without warning? ;)

    UKIP's problem is that Farage mixes Euroscepticism with golf club Toryism. Great for attracting Conservative rebels like Hamilton, Carswell and Reckless but it is an electoral dead-end.
    If you think Carswell is in any way a golf club Tory you are very misinformed. Most of his ideas about modernising our political system would be anathema to the golf club Tory set.
    He told me once that the idea of talking at a golf club dinner was his idea of hell.
This discussion has been closed.