politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Judging by his betting price collapse Boris’s back LEAVE decision hasn’t been good for his career ambitions
Yesterday the Daily Mail’s renowned columnist, Katie Hopkins had a big go at the ex-Mayor under the heading “I thought Boris was going to save Britain from the EU, instead he has turned out to be a big fat fraud.”
All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.
Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
@GuidoFawkes: Massive scoop by @ShaunLintern reveals thousands of BMA Junior Doctors Committee Whatsapp messages. Guess what? IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!
On topic, Boris' problem is that he is Boris. He's not serious enough about winning, until he gets his head down and works out if he is actually in favour of Leave then he won't be a good candidate for the leadership. I would only vote for him if it was a Boris/Osborne final two. In fact I think that's the only way he becomes leader, and surely the stop Boris camp would unite behind someone other than Osborne if they both made the final three.
In barely eight weeks on the Brexit campaign trail, Johnson has damaged, if not shattered, that cultivated image. His transition from the mayor’s office to national politics is best known so far for missteps, gaffes and underwhelming results. No one’s counting out the ambitious politician from the longer race to lead the Conservative Party, but this wasn’t how the Boris coming out party was supposed to go.
All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.
Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
Sovereignty might get you the political geek vote. That's about it. It may be important, but nobody cares. It's like Labour members confusing the fact that malign neoliberal economics is ruining peoples lives, and thinking that you win an election by talking about that fact, rather than the different outcomes that you will deliver to change their lives for the better. So the challenge for Leave is to analyse how this alleged lack of sovereignty is hurting people, and work out how to communicate those hurts in a way that is seen as more important than just worrying about how to pay the mortgage.
@GuidoFawkes: Massive scoop by @ShaunLintern reveals thousands of BMA Junior Doctors Committee Whatsapp messages. Guess what? IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!
All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.
Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
There is of course the argument that you attract more flies with shit than you do with honey
@GuidoFawkes: Massive scoop by @ShaunLintern reveals thousands of BMA Junior Doctors Committee Whatsapp messages. Guess what? IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!
No no no, it must be wrong, it was all about the patient safety on a Saturday....Also for smart people, you would think you might want to be careful about what you write anywhere anytime. It only takes one person to lose their phone or decide they don't like one of the group.
Theresa May has worked herself into a strong position irrespective of the result.
Theresa May's new moves to reform fire brigades has a hint of political motivation about it. Closing rural fire stations might not play well with Conservative backbenchers representing those areas.
Is a tribute to D-Day. Cutting off the essential supplies
I had to laugh when the power stations were taken out on strike, now you can't even charge your electric car.
If there's one thing the CGT understand it's how to really screw up the country.
And they don't actually give a shit.
16/19 nuke plants out today - wow.
You want to know what's equally amazing: despite the CGT strike, France is exporting electricity to the UK right now.
It would be quite funny if they had to pull the plug on the interconnector and we had power cuts the week before th e referendum- unlikely though at this time of year.
Frankly, UK electricity demand is so aneamic right now, that pretty much the entire UK coal fleet is idle. That around 20GW of power stations where the workers have nothing to do, but perform routing maintenance.
I would like to point out that I was the only person on politicalbetting (literally the only one) who said we would not have electricity shortages. I would like some respect for my energy forecasting skills
It is notable on Gridwatch that France with a similar population has usage 50% higher than us -51 vs 34 gig. (although the domestic demand is actually 41 gig as 20% of output is being exported to various countries) but that stlill leaves them using 20% more than us domestically
There are three broad reasons for that:
1. Southern France has peak power demand in the summer, thanks to warmer temperatures and air conditioning. We are therefore comparing trough UK power demand with average French power demand.
2. France has a bigger industrial and manufacturing base than we do in the UK, often attracted by the low electricity rates offered to big power users. (EDF has more power than it can shake a stick at, and it's all low marginal cost, which means that industrial users in France - who can guarantee a certain amount of demand - suck up a lot of power).
3. The UK has been a lot more advanced at pushing energy saving measures than France. While there is some catch up now, new homes in the UK are simply more energy efficient than in France.
@GuidoFawkes: Massive scoop by @ShaunLintern reveals thousands of BMA Junior Doctors Committee Whatsapp messages. Guess what? IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!
No no no, it must be wrong, it was all about the patient safety on a Saturday....Also for smart people, you would think you might want to be careful about what you write anywhere anytime. It only takes one person to lose their phone or decide they don't like one of the group.
Is this the right way round? Surely it was Hunt's position that it was all about safety and the BMA was complaining about losing overtime pay. Not sure that Guido has understood this.
All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.
Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
Sovereignty might get you the political geek vote. That's about it. It may be important, but nobody cares. It's like Labour members confusing the fact that malign neoliberal economics is ruining peoples lives, and thinking that you win an election by talking about that fact, rather than the different outcomes that you will deliver to change their lives for the better. So the challenge for Leave is to analyse how this alleged lack of sovereignty is hurting people, and work out how to communicate those hurts in a way that is seen as more important than just worrying about how to pay the mortgage.
Well the point is that Leave needs to swing just 5-7% from Remain to win. The people who have been swayed on the economics are not going to be won back given the firepower the government has on the subject, the only thing to say is that "Britain will remain a leading global economy in or out of the EU, the politically motivated attacks on the economy by the government is doing more damage to us than Brexit". Leave can't and never will win on economics, simply because in the short term there is no doubt that we would be worse off.
Very much like the Tories targetted the 80-90k marginal voters who delivered them a majority last year, Leave needs to find a message that will work for the 5-7% that they need to win. Reluctant remainers, in my experience, tend to see the remain choice as a lesser of two evils and believe that if the EU does federalise we will vote to leave at that point. Making it clear that this is our one chance to leave and that another won't be coming because Dave has given away our veto is something that could work.
On Mike's leader, I'm far from convinced that Osborne has a Brown-like bloc of MPs that could propel him to the final two; still less one that could propel a protege of his there. I wouldn't be at all surprised if neither he nor Boris made it. The implication of that is that the run-off could easily be between two relatively unfancied runners, both chosen in order to stop Bosborne.
On Mike's leader, I'm far from convinced that Osborne has a Brown-like bloc of MPs that could propel him to the final two; still less one that could propel a protege of his there. I wouldn't be at all surprised if neither he nor Boris made it. The implication of that is that the run-off could easily be between two relatively unfancied runners, both chosen in order to stop Bosborne.
Agreed, I would be selling both Osborne and Johnson here.
I have to day the betting markets around the referendum are totally perplexing. Why Leave is being given such a low chance of victory is beyond me. And now Osborne is back to being favourite for the Tory leadership. It makes no sense.
Sovereignty might get you the political geek vote. That's about it. It may be important, but nobody cares. It's like Labour members confusing the fact that malign neoliberal economics is ruining peoples lives, and thinking that you win an election by talking about that fact, rather than the different outcomes that you will deliver to change their lives for the better. So the challenge for Leave is to analyse how this alleged lack of sovereignty is hurting people, and work out how to communicate those hurts in a way that is seen as more important than just worrying about how to pay the mortgage.
Well the point is that Leave needs to swing just 5-7% from Remain to win. The people who have been swayed on the economics are not going to be won back given the firepower the government has on the subject, the only thing to say is that "Britain will remain a leading global economy in or out of the EU, the politically motivated attacks on the economy by the government is doing more damage to us than Brexit". Leave can't and never will win on economics, simply because in the short term there is no doubt that we would be worse off.
Very much like the Tories targetted the 80-90k marginal voters who delivered them a majority last year, Leave needs to find a message that will work for the 5-7% that they need to win. Reluctant remainers, in my experience, tend to see the remain choice as a lesser of two evils and believe that if the EU does federalise we will vote to leave at that point. Making it clear that this is our one chance to leave and that another won't be coming because Dave has given away our veto is something that could work.
"Do this scary thing today otherwise you won't be able to stop that scary thing in a decade" just doesn't work though. People are too short term. It's why parties with a long-term privatisation agenda get elected despite a clear majority being really unhappy when the privatisations actually happen, for example. This is a bit more serious but it's the same point.
I think it has to come down to employment. "Jobs for your children" is ultimately an anti-immigration slogan, but it's not a blatantly nasty "keep the foreigners out" line which has the repellent effect you accurately describe.
Yes, one of the few good things to come out of the referendum shenanigans is that the conundrum of whether Boris would be a fantastic asset or a disastrous liability as party leader has now been decisively resolved. So that will simplify the decision.
The decision to campaign for Leave was okay. Boris' actions since are what has killed his leadership chances, not least his recent desire to grab a bit of that Ken Livingstone magic.
UKIP does not have the political skills to capitalise on the discontent.
That is very clear from the Welsh Assembly. UKIP ***could*** have inflicted huge damage on Labour in the Valleys. They didn't ... because Hamilton and Reckless are exactly the wrong type of people to crystallise this discontent. They are from a different world, alien life-forms, to most people in the Valleys.
UKIP can't evolve from what it is now to where it needs to be.
My point remains -- if the result for Leave is 45 per cent or more -- then that is an incredible opportunity for someone.
In politics, if there is a huge opportunity, someone will grasp it.
After all, Labour were a Eurosceptic party. It was the chancer Blair who made them so vociferously Europhile. A chancer whose scanty and tarnished reputation is about to be shredded some more. ------------------------------------ I concur that at present UKIP doesn't have the political nous or the skills capitalise on the referendum, whatever the result. And that is why I ceased being a member of UKIP.
Who's the rotter that changed thread without warning?
One thing about Boris that doesn't get aired that much is whether Tory Leave MPs see his conversion as genuine. If I were a Tory Leaver I would want to be damn sure that I replaced Cameron with a true Brexit believer. Once have installed the new leader it's going to be hard to replace him before the election if he seems to be going wobbly. I guess that would point more towards someone like Patel rather than Boris?
UKIP does not have the political skills to capitalise on the discontent.
That is very clear from the Welsh Assembly. UKIP ***could*** have inflicted huge damage on Labour in the Valleys. They didn't ... because Hamilton and Reckless are exactly the wrong type of people to crystallise this discontent. They are from a different world, alien life-forms, to most people in the Valleys.
UKIP can't evolve from what it is now to where it needs to be.
My point remains -- if the result for Leave is 45 per cent or more -- then that is an incredible opportunity for someone.
In politics, if there is a huge opportunity, someone will grasp it.
After all, Labour were a Eurosceptic party. It was the chancer Blair who made them so vociferously Europhile. A chancer whose scanty and tarnished reputation is about to be shredded some more. ------------------------------------ I concur that at present UKIP doesn't have the political nous or the skills capitalise on the referendum, whatever the result. And that is why I ceased being a member of UKIP.
Who's the rotter that changed thread without warning?
UKIP's problem is that Farage mixes Euroscepticism with golf club Toryism. Great for attracting Conservative rebels like Hamilton, Carswell and Reckless but it is an electoral dead-end.
The decision to campaign for Leave was okay. Boris' actions since are what has killed his leadership chances, not least his recent desire to grab a bit of that Ken Livingstone magic.
Boris's basic problem is that he is not very good at politics. Beating the anti-Semitic and hypocritical Ken Livingstone is one thing, effectively advocating a cause and a set of beliefs is quite another. You have to be extraordinarily motivated, very good on detail and willing to put in the leg work. Boris is none of these things. He thinks being "hilarious" is enough. Farage is a far better advocate for Leave than he is. If the Tories are finally working Boris out, that's more bad news for Labour. That said, the line-up of Cameron replacements is not exactly awe-inspiring. There is no-one on the list that a half competent opposition would fear. When even Priti Patel has backers it tells you that the Tory talent pool does not run deep.
On Mike's leader, I'm far from convinced that Osborne has a Brown-like bloc of MPs that could propel him to the final two; still less one that could propel a protege of his there. I wouldn't be at all surprised if neither he nor Boris made it. The implication of that is that the run-off could easily be between two relatively unfancied runners, both chosen in order to stop Bosborne.
I can't see Osborne or Boris in final two either. Neither are suited - and Osborne has appalling polling.
Mind you, say what you like about Katie Hopkins, but her suggestion in that article that Boris is angling for a role in Top Gear is brilliant. He's just about the only bloke in the world who could out-Clarkson Clarkson.
Mind you, say what you like about Katie Hopkins, but her suggestion in that article that Boris is angling for a role in Top Gear is brilliant. He's just about the only bloke in the world who could out-Clarkson Clarkson.
Surely the obvious job for Boris is next leader of UKIP.
If anything the comment about IDS is still more unpleasant, poking fun at his genetic inheritance (which is no doubt in considerable part derived from his Japanese ancestry).
Mind you, say what you like about Katie Hopkins, but her suggestion in that article that Boris is angling for a role in Top Gear is brilliant. He's just about the only bloke in the world who could out-Clarkson Clarkson.
Surely the obvious job for Boris is next leader of UKIP.
Too liberal for UKIP.
I'm sure his past policy for an amnesty for illegal immigrants will be loved by the Kippers
Mind you, say what you like about Katie Hopkins, but her suggestion in that article that Boris is angling for a role in Top Gear is brilliant. He's just about the only bloke in the world who could out-Clarkson Clarkson.
Surely the obvious job for Boris is next leader of UKIP.
Well he could do both, of course. Same target audience.
Mind you, say what you like about Katie Hopkins, but her suggestion in that article that Boris is angling for a role in Top Gear is brilliant. He's just about the only bloke in the world who could out-Clarkson Clarkson.
Surely the obvious job for Boris is next leader of UKIP.
Too liberal for UKIP.
I'm sure his past policy for an amnesty for illegal immigrants will be loved by the Kippers
Well, his past policies also included staying in the EU. That's all wonk stuff anyway. What matters is how he holds a pint.
Mind you, say what you like about Katie Hopkins, but her suggestion in that article that Boris is angling for a role in Top Gear is brilliant. He's just about the only bloke in the world who could out-Clarkson Clarkson.
Surely the obvious job for Boris is next leader of UKIP.
Well he could do both, of course. Same target audience.
The decision to campaign for Leave was okay. Boris' actions since are what has killed his leadership chances, not least his recent desire to grab a bit of that Ken Livingstone magic.
Boris's basic problem is that he is not very good at politics. Beating the anti-Semitic and hypocritical Ken Livingstone is one thing, effectively advocating a cause and a set of beliefs is quite another. You have to be extraordinarily motivated, very good on detail and willing to put in the leg work. Boris is none of these things. He thinks being "hilarious" is enough. Farage is a far better advocate for Leave than he is. If the Tories are finally working Boris out, that's more bad news for Labour. That said, the line-up of Cameron replacements is not exactly awe-inspiring. There is no-one on the list that a half competent opposition would fear. When even Priti Patel has backers it tells you that the Tory talent pool does not run deep.
Good point.
"Boris's only achievement in frontline politics is beating Ken Livingstone twice." Focuses the mind about him.
I would like to point out that I was the only person on politicalbetting (literally the only one) who said we would not have electricity shortages. I would like some respect for my energy forecasting skills
The campaign from both sides has been thoroughly depressing and just makes you want it to go away. I do not think anyone has enhanced their reputation and on something as important as this is it should makes all of us shake our heads in dismay. I read Max Hastings article in today's Daily Mail and it is a good read and virtually encapsulates my own view, as as less than enthusiastic remainer. It does seem that there is no appetite for the EU but also there are big doubts with leave singularly failing to paint a unified picture of how we could achieve a successful Brexit. Leave have had long enough to formulate a Norway style deal with some contribution and free movement of labour, but regaining control and sovereignty. If this proposition had been put forward from day one I am fairly certain I would have voted to leave but I am not prepared to 'take the leap in the dark' only to find that the Norway style deal is agreed and that there will be little difference in the ability to control immigration. Leave say this is our last chance but the EU will face disaster on many fronts in the coming months and years and it is incumbent on eurosceptics to plan for the day when they will get a further opportunity, which may well be supported by the majority.
@GuidoFawkes: Massive scoop by @ShaunLintern reveals thousands of BMA Junior Doctors Committee Whatsapp messages. Guess what? IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!
UKIP does not have the political skills to capitalise on the discontent.
That is very clear from the Welsh Assembly. UKIP ***could*** have inflicted huge damage on Labour in the Valleys. They didn't ... because Hamilton and Reckless are exactly the wrong type of people to crystallise this discontent. They are from a different world, alien life-forms, to most people in the Valleys.
UKIP can't evolve from what it is now to where it needs to be.
My point remains -- if the result for Leave is 45 per cent or more -- then that is an incredible opportunity for someone.
In politics, if there is a huge opportunity, someone will grasp it.
After all, Labour were a Eurosceptic party. It was the chancer Blair who made them so vociferously Europhile. A chancer whose scanty and tarnished reputation is about to be shredded some more. ------------------------------------ I concur that at present UKIP doesn't have the political nous or the skills capitalise on the referendum, whatever the result. And that is why I ceased being a member of UKIP.
Who's the rotter that changed thread without warning?
UKIP's problem is that Farage mixes Euroscepticism with golf club Toryism. Great for attracting Conservative rebels like Hamilton, Carswell and Reckless but it is an electoral dead-end.
If you think Carswell is in any way a golf club Tory you are very misinformed. Most of his ideas about modernising our political system would be anathema to the golf club Tory set.
@RCS1000 "The UK has been a lot more advanced at pushing energy saving measures than France. While there is some catch up now, new homes in the UK are simply more energy efficient than in France."
Mr. Robert, I am at a loss with this. We are talking about electricity consumption are we not? I have my home insulated to the hilt, but that doesn't change by one watt my electricity consumption. My computer needs the same amount of power, it still gets dark at the same time, my kettle needs the same amount of power so I can make tea.
My cousin, a retired vicar, has spent about 30 grand taking his house off line, solar panels on the roof for electricity and a heat exchanger in the garden to provide heating and hot water. He now gets a cheque from the electricity company every quarter rather than a bill and does not have a gas boiler at all*. Now if we had building regs that forced that sort of set up on all new builds I'd concede to you had a point, but we do not.
*Given his advanced age I really do not know why he bothered. He will never live long enough to recover his investment and their are no children to inherit.
I cling to the hope that what are witnessing from Boris is a Mohammed Ali-worthy example of rope a dope, letting Cameron and Osborne shoot off all their weaponry before purdah starts, with Boris (tag-teamed with Gove) doing a master class in forensic demolition of the bollocks that Remain's top two have spouted for the past month or more.
UKIP does not have the political skills to capitalise on the discontent.
That is very clear from the Welsh Assembly. UKIP ***could*** have inflicted huge damage on Labour in the Valleys. They didn't ... because Hamilton and Reckless are exactly the wrong type of people to crystallise this discontent. They are from a different world, alien life-forms, to most people in the Valleys.
UKIP can't evolve from what it is now to where it needs to be.
My point remains -- if the result for Leave is 45 per cent or more -- then that is an incredible opportunity for someone.
In politics, if there is a huge opportunity, someone will grasp it.
After all, Labour were a Eurosceptic party. It was the chancer Blair who made them so vociferously Europhile. A chancer whose scanty and tarnished reputation is about to be shredded some more. ------------------------------------ I concur that at present UKIP doesn't have the political nous or the skills capitalise on the referendum, whatever the result. And that is why I ceased being a member of UKIP.
Who's the rotter that changed thread without warning?
UKIP's problem is that Farage mixes Euroscepticism with golf club Toryism. Great for attracting Conservative rebels like Hamilton, Carswell and Reckless but it is an electoral dead-end.
If you think Carswell is in any way a golf club Tory you are very misinformed. Most of his ideas about modernising our political system would be anathema to the golf club Tory set.
He told me once that the idea of talking at a golf club dinner was his idea of hell.
Comments
Theresa May has worked herself into a strong position irrespective of the result.
EDIT: buy Hunt perhaps?
Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
Events dear boy. Events.
@GuidoFawkes: Massive scoop by @ShaunLintern reveals thousands of BMA Junior Doctors Committee Whatsapp messages. Guess what? IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!
http://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-former-london-mayor-bumbles-at-brexit-debutante-ball-campaign-eu-referendum/
Plus he did well at PMQs yesterday, got some zingers in at Labour which cheered up the Tory backbenchers.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/735762206759911424
1. Southern France has peak power demand in the summer, thanks to warmer temperatures and air conditioning. We are therefore comparing trough UK power demand with average French power demand.
2. France has a bigger industrial and manufacturing base than we do in the UK, often attracted by the low electricity rates offered to big power users. (EDF has more power than it can shake a stick at, and it's all low marginal cost, which means that industrial users in France - who can guarantee a certain amount of demand - suck up a lot of power).
3. The UK has been a lot more advanced at pushing energy saving measures than France. While there is some catch up now, new homes in the UK are simply more energy efficient than in France.
That said, at what point does Boris and Osborne become value? 6/1 for the ex-mayor doesn't sound far off.
I'd be laughing, but it definitely won't be all the way to the bank
There may well be promotions for Patel, Gove, Raab, and Leadsom. But there won't be a promotion for Johnson.
He has few friends on the Leave side, and none on the Remain. His career is reduced to journalism, adultery and increasingly pathetic whingeing.
If I were him I'd be practicing each evening with an image consultant and speech/debating coach.
It's his last chance to make an impact as a serious politician and potential national leader.
Very much like the Tories targetted the 80-90k marginal voters who delivered them a majority last year, Leave needs to find a message that will work for the 5-7% that they need to win. Reluctant remainers, in my experience, tend to see the remain choice as a lesser of two evils and believe that if the EU does federalise we will vote to leave at that point. Making it clear that this is our one chance to leave and that another won't be coming because Dave has given away our veto is something that could work.
No one likes it, but once it's rooted it's impossible to get rid of.
So I vote herpes
I think Michael Gove should sue her - the caption on him is surely beyond the pale with respect to our libel laws ?
@YBarddCwsc said:
UKIP does not have the political skills to capitalise on the discontent.
That is very clear from the Welsh Assembly. UKIP ***could*** have inflicted huge damage on Labour in the Valleys. They didn't ... because Hamilton and Reckless are exactly the wrong type of people to crystallise this discontent. They are from a different world, alien life-forms, to most people in the Valleys.
UKIP can't evolve from what it is now to where it needs to be.
My point remains -- if the result for Leave is 45 per cent or more -- then that is an incredible opportunity for someone.
In politics, if there is a huge opportunity, someone will grasp it.
After all, Labour were a Eurosceptic party. It was the chancer Blair who made them so vociferously Europhile. A chancer whose scanty and tarnished reputation is about to be shredded some more.
------------------------------------
I concur that at present UKIP doesn't have the political nous or the skills capitalise on the referendum, whatever the result. And that is why I ceased being a member of UKIP.
Who's the rotter that changed thread without warning?
I'm sure his past policy for an amnesty for illegal immigrants will be loved by the Kippers
*11%* think he's Prime Ministerial; 65% don't.
"Boris's only achievement in frontline politics is beating Ken Livingstone twice." Focuses the mind about him.
I suppose it saves thinking about things.
Osborne V Benn........
The full article makes very interesting reading.
Will this get the attention it deserves? Sadly it is unlikely. But it proves that money was always, always, always at the heart of this.
The Leave campaign deserves the scorn heaped upon it.
"The UK has been a lot more advanced at pushing energy saving measures than France. While there is some catch up now, new homes in the UK are simply more energy efficient than in France."
Mr. Robert, I am at a loss with this. We are talking about electricity consumption are we not? I have my home insulated to the hilt, but that doesn't change by one watt my electricity consumption. My computer needs the same amount of power, it still gets dark at the same time, my kettle needs the same amount of power so I can make tea.
My cousin, a retired vicar, has spent about 30 grand taking his house off line, solar panels on the roof for electricity and a heat exchanger in the garden to provide heating and hot water. He now gets a cheque from the electricity company every quarter rather than a bill and does not have a gas boiler at all*. Now if we had building regs that forced that sort of set up on all new builds I'd concede to you had a point, but we do not.
*Given his advanced age I really do not know why he bothered. He will never live long enough to recover his investment and their are no children to inherit.
It's a hope.
Catching herpes is usually fun, and I can't see how being stuck in a lift with Ms Hopkins can be fun.
How do you think you got the herpes ?