I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
That would have to led to shy Kippers at the last GE, but the polls generally got the UKIP share close
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
That would have to led to shy Kippers at the last GE, but the polls generally got the UKIP share close
I don't think that follows. At a GE people need to know they have a chance of winning which under the UK voting system means a lot of kipper leaners would vote Tory. The EU Ref doesn't suffer the same voting imbalance: it's a straight fight to the death.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
Or people who are fed up with being called Quislings, traitors, unpatriotic, Europhiles and Eurofanatics deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote. More likely, I think.
I think that was Leave grasping at straws, desperate for some totemic EU issue that would expose Ozzy as a vassal. But the man has triumphed yet again. I just hope those who doubted him don't make their apologies too grovelling.
Read it again - it appears to promise something - but doesn't.
"I've got the EU to agree to look at possible ways of making the CAP more flexible".
"Right we've looked at the possible ways and we think that on balance we have it just about right."
Every major party has more declared leavers online than over the 'phone. UKIP is actually the smallest discrepancy.
I can't think of a reason why Tory, Lib and Lab would all be more more likely to say leave on the internet apart from the anonymity, like a polling booth.
How many people that like to cast themselves as progressive and centrist are being untrue in polite company?
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
That would have to led to shy Kippers at the last GE, but the polls generally got the UKIP share close
It's not quite the same though - whilst UKIP voters are I am sure claiming 'Leave' loudly and proudly, the difference is the 20% who aren't UKIP, but are considering Leave for whatever reason. The 'shy' Leave voter is likely to be there if anywhere.
Every major party has more declared leavers online than over the 'phone. UKIP is actually the smallest discrepancy.
I can't think of a reason why Tory, Lib and Lab would all be more more likely to say leave on the internet apart from the anonymity, like a polling booth.
How many people that like to cast themselves as progressive and centrist are being untrue in polite company?
That's exactly where I'm coming from, only with some statistics to back it in your case
This could be wrong, so to whoever wrote below about pinning hopes, it's not about that, it's about trying to call this right. I made money last time I bet big on UK politics and though I don't always go by feeling, this just feels right to me. It doesn't mean Leave will win, but I think a lot of the polls have Remain too high.
Mr. Eagles, but the Conservatives/Labour shares wrong, no?
Yes, but there was no evidence of shy anyone, just the samples weren't representative.
I am an extremely Shy Tory. So painfully shy, in fact, that I found myself physically incapable of marking an 'X' in the Tory box on my ballot paper at GE2015.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?
Er....? If I call you a paedophile, does that make you a paedophile then?
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?
Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.
You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?
You should know full well that in PC parlance, BME people like yours truly can NEVER be racist!
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
For similar reasons to why the pollsters, and politicalbetting.com, so ballsed up that election. Admitting you were going to vote Tory was sufficiently toxic for people either to lie or claim not to know. Admitting you're going to vote leave has been branded toxic by Cameron and the establishment. But when I listen to people I sense a similar mood to pre-GE2015. As I say, I made a wad back then and I think the Leave vote is being underestimated in the current polls. I could be wrong. As they say, past performance is no ...
The GE2015 result was because, proverbially, on the way to the polling booth, voters realised that despite the feelgood factor of voting Labour, they didn't want to f&ck up the country by actually voting Labour.
In the same way this June, much as it is hugely satisfying shouting "cry freedom", voters will not want to f&ck up the country by voting Leave.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
I think Saatchi's have really got it wrong with their skinhead poster for OBV. They wanted PR controversy - they've got almost universal condemnation.
I think that was Leave grasping at straws, desperate for some totemic EU issue that would expose Ozzy as a vassal. But the man has triumphed yet again. I just hope those who doubted him don't make their apologies too grovelling.
Read it again - it appears to promise something - but doesn't.
"I've got the EU to agree to look at possible ways of making the CAP more flexible".
"Right we've looked at the possible ways and we think that on balance we have it just about right."
Christ on a bike talk about #WeaselWords.
Just because they agree to do something doesn't mean they will. If they look at something it doesn't mean they will draw any conclusions Even if they look at it they might decide nothing is possible. More flexible could just as easily mean more expensive as cheaper.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
I think Saatchi's have really got it wrong with their skinhead poster for OBV. They wanted PR controversy - they've got almost universal condemnation.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
I think Saatchi's have really got it wrong with their skinhead poster for OBV. They wanted PR controversy - they've got almost universal condemnation.
His stated reason for wishing to leave the EU is similar to my main reason: "Neither side in this argument can predict the future 10, 20, 30 years from now so the question is what kind of arrangements will give us the best chance of handling whatever the future brings in a way that is best for our economy and society. I think the answer to that is a set up where we have maximum flexibility to respond to unpredictable things quickly and in a way we control rather than having to negotiate everything with a committee of 27 other (or more) countries with massively different circumstances."
Mr. Eagles, but the Conservatives/Labour shares wrong, no?
Yes, but there was no evidence of shy anyone, just the samples weren't representative.
There's no evidence for that claim either
In one sense though you've just played into the argument. It's the liars and "don't know" (leavers) that are part responsible for skewing the samples.
We also have evidence against the Shy Tories theory. We can examine the Shy Tory theory by considering where there is likely to be social pressure on Conservative voters. For example, it seems unlikely that Tories would need to be shy in the heavily Conservative Shires but it is more plausible that they would be by shy in traditional Labour heartlands like Sunderland. Figure 2 shows that we actually observe the opposite pattern. The deviation between the proportion of BES respondents saying they voted Conservative and the actual proportion of voters who did is highest in strong Conservative areas where we would expect the least social pressure against voting Conservative.
Every major party has more declared leavers online than over the 'phone. UKIP is actually the smallest discrepancy.
I can't think of a reason why Tory, Lib and Lab would all be more more likely to say leave on the internet apart from the anonymity, like a polling booth.
How many people that like to cast themselves as progressive and centrist are being untrue in polite company?
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?
Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.
You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.
Or you could just be wrong.
Actually, you don't see Leave voters on the streets, as they have all been Sectioned....
Mr. Eagles, but the Conservatives/Labour shares wrong, no?
Yes, but there was no evidence of shy anyone, just the samples weren't representative.
There's no evidence for that claim either
In one sense though you've just played into the argument. It's the liars and "don't know" (leavers) that are part responsible for skewing the samples.
We also have evidence against the Shy Tories theory. We can examine the Shy Tory theory by considering where there is likely to be social pressure on Conservative voters. For example, it seems unlikely that Tories would need to be shy in the heavily Conservative Shires but it is more plausible that they would be by shy in traditional Labour heartlands like Sunderland. Figure 2 shows that we actually observe the opposite pattern. The deviation between the proportion of BES respondents saying they voted Conservative and the actual proportion of voters who did is highest in strong Conservative areas where we would expect the least social pressure against voting Conservative.
Yep I think the pollsters, like some of those on pb.com, have yet to face up properly to their ballsup. This is a good example. It's ludicrous to say people aren't shy in the tory shires: pollsters don't stand on Henley High Street these days you know TSE? If someone phones you up, and even on the internet, you're not likely to fess up to a position deemed toxic.
It's not rocket science but then I am trying to convince the person who wrote a Thread on Sunday 28th September 2014 in which he said: "Today extinguished the last hopes the Tories have of retaining power."
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
I think Saatchi's have really got it wrong with their skinhead poster for OBV. They wanted PR controversy - they've got almost universal condemnation.
That's neither big nor clever.
Its tempting to think that is how some of the more arrogant sneering remainers see the typical leaver.
I think that was Leave grasping at straws, desperate for some totemic EU issue that would expose Ozzy as a vassal. But the man has triumphed yet again. I just hope those who doubted him don't make their apologies too grovelling.
Read it again - it appears to promise something - but doesn't.
"I've got the EU to agree to look at possible ways of making the CAP more flexible".
"Right we've looked at the possible ways and we think that on balance we have it just about right."
Christ on a bike talk about #WeaselWords.
Just because they agree to do something doesn't mean they will. If they look at something it doesn't mean they will draw any conclusions Even if they look at it they might decide nothing is possible. More flexible could just as easily mean more expensive as cheaper.
Every major party has more declared leavers online than over the 'phone. UKIP is actually the smallest discrepancy.
I can't think of a reason why Tory, Lib and Lab would all be more more likely to say leave on the internet apart from the anonymity, like a polling booth.
How many people that like to cast themselves as progressive and centrist are being untrue in polite company?
What on earth do the remaining 8.4% of Kippers think they are in the party for?
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
For similar reasons to why the pollsters, and politicalbetting.com, so ballsed up that election. Admitting you were going to vote Tory was sufficiently toxic for people either to lie or claim not to know. Admitting you're going to vote leave has been branded toxic by Cameron and the establishment. But when I listen to people I sense a similar mood to pre-GE2015. As I say, I made a wad back then and I think the Leave vote is being underestimated in the current polls. I could be wrong. As they say, past performance is no ...
The GE2015 result was because, proverbially, on the way to the polling booth, voters realised that despite the feelgood factor of voting Labour, they didn't want to f&ck up the country by actually voting Labour.
In the same way this June, much as it is hugely satisfying shouting "cry freedom", voters will not want to f&ck up the country by voting Leave.
If that was true people like me wouldn't have spent six months telling everyone the Tories were going to win until we were shouted down or hounded out. Didn't matter: I made a packet.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
I think Saatchi's have really got it wrong with their skinhead poster for OBV. They wanted PR controversy - they've got almost universal condemnation.
= PR controversy. So job done.
(I don't like the poster, myself.)
Except it might backfire.
The whites will vote and say "how dare you tell me I'm racist"
And the non-whites will be worried that, if they vote, they'll be shouted at by a thug...
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
I think Saatchi's have really got it wrong with their skinhead poster for OBV. They wanted PR controversy - they've got almost universal condemnation.
= PR controversy. So job done.
(I don't like the poster, myself.)
No it isn't. It's damaging. I've bought millions in advertising over the years - this revolts me and does nothing to attract me to Saatchis. Imagine a procurement/bid meeting "Oh, they're the ones with the racist posters - err no thanks"
Mr. Eagles, but the Conservatives/Labour shares wrong, no?
Yes, but there was no evidence of shy anyone, just the samples weren't representative.
There's no evidence for that claim either
In one sense though you've just played into the argument. It's the liars and "don't know" (leavers) that are part responsible for skewing the samples.
We also have evidence against the Shy Tories theory. We can examine the Shy Tory theory by considering where there is likely to be social pressure on Conservative voters. For example, it seems unlikely that Tories would need to be shy in the heavily Conservative Shires but it is more plausible that they would be by shy in traditional Labour heartlands like Sunderland. Figure 2 shows that we actually observe the opposite pattern. The deviation between the proportion of BES respondents saying they voted Conservative and the actual proportion of voters who did is highest in strong Conservative areas where we would expect the least social pressure against voting Conservative.
Yep I think the pollsters, like some of those on pb.com, have yet to face up properly to their ballsup. This is a good example. It's ludicrous to say people aren't shy in the tory shires: pollsters don't stand on Henley High Street these days you know TSE? If someone phones you up, and even on the internet, you're not likely to fess up to a position deemed toxic.
It's not rocket science but then I am trying to convince the person who wrote a Thread on Sunday 28th September 2014 in which he said: "Today extinguished the last hopes the Tories have of retaining power."
I've mentioned before savvy EU migrants who come for just less than a year, then return home for a few weeks to reclaim their tax...
The number of migrants coming for between one and twelve months was 1.2 million in the year to the end of June 2014 which the ONS said was a “statistically significant” increase of 110,000 on the previous year.
Under double taxation rules they would still pay tax on UK earnings:
Every major party has more declared leavers online than over the 'phone. UKIP is actually the smallest discrepancy.
I can't think of a reason why Tory, Lib and Lab would all be more more likely to say leave on the internet apart from the anonymity, like a polling booth.
How many people that like to cast themselves as progressive and centrist are being untrue in polite company?
What on earth do the remaining 8.4% of Kippers think they are in the party for?
Oh my word - James Brokenshire is AWFUL on Sky talking about immigration. He looks really weird and spouting obvious bollocks.
Long thought of him as a sub standard minister, a bed blocker for better talent on the back benches and more junior ranks. Good news for LEAVE the more talk is on immigration.
IDS superb and punchy on Sky in response.
Things you never thought you'd hear...
IDS is an excellent media performer and is currently taking on Jacqui Smith on Daily Politics. Labour couldn't put up a Shadow Minister.
Smith was awful - all handwaving. I barely recognised her. Why was she on at all?
I wonder how many Labour voters would see it and what their reaction would be? Being positive, she has lost a little weight.
That haircut looks like a bad wig, and all over her face as if she was hiding her identity.
Oh dear sexism as well - all fair game in the Brexit cause. The notion that IDS could persuade anyone to change their vote or leave is risible but not in the Alice in Wonderland world here.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
For similar reasons to why the pollsters, and politicalbetting.com, so ballsed up that election. Admitting you were going to vote Tory was sufficiently toxic for people either to lie or claim not to know. Admitting you're going to vote leave has been branded toxic by Cameron and the establishment. But when I listen to people I sense a similar mood to pre-GE2015. As I say, I made a wad back then and I think the Leave vote is being underestimated in the current polls. I could be wrong. As they say, past performance is no ...
The GE2015 result was because, proverbially, on the way to the polling booth, voters realised that despite the feelgood factor of voting Labour, they didn't want to f&ck up the country by actually voting Labour.
In the same way this June, much as it is hugely satisfying shouting "cry freedom", voters will not want to f&ck up the country by voting Leave.
If that was true people like me wouldn't have spent six months telling everyone the Tories were going to win until we were shouted down or hounded out. Didn't matter: I made a packet.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
For similar reasons to why the pollsters, and politicalbetting.com, so ballsed up that election. Admitting you were going to vote Tory was sufficiently toxic for people either to lie or claim not to know. Admitting you're going to vote leave has been branded toxic by Cameron and the establishment. But when I listen to people I sense a similar mood to pre-GE2015. As I say, I made a wad back then and I think the Leave vote is being underestimated in the current polls. I could be wrong. As they say, past performance is no ...
The GE2015 result was because, proverbially, on the way to the polling booth, voters realised that despite the feelgood factor of voting Labour, they didn't want to f&ck up the country by actually voting Labour.
In the same way this June, much as it is hugely satisfying shouting "cry freedom", voters will not want to f&ck up the country by voting Leave.
If that was true people like me wouldn't have spent six months telling everyone the Tories were going to win until we were shouted down or hounded out. Didn't matter: I made a packet.
I think that was Leave grasping at straws, desperate for some totemic EU issue that would expose Ozzy as a vassal. But the man has triumphed yet again. I just hope those who doubted him don't make their apologies too grovelling.
Read it again - it appears to promise something - but doesn't.
"I've got the EU to agree to look at possible ways of making the CAP more flexible".
"Right we've looked at the possible ways and we think that on balance we have it just about right."
Christ on a bike talk about #WeaselWords.
Just because they agree to do something doesn't mean they will. If they look at something it doesn't mean they will draw any conclusions Even if they look at it they might decide nothing is possible. More flexible could just as easily mean more expensive as cheaper.
Welcome back, hope you had a nice break.
Thanks! I am actually back on my break, I had to take a break from my break because of an administrative clusterf*ck back in the city so I have been away from my PC for a few days.
UKIP were understated by all the telephone polls last May, as was the right wing bloc of Tory/UKIP.
The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.
And UKIP were overstated by most of the online polls
The potential failing with that line of thought is that right wing, eurosceptic opinion is not confined to UKIP. 2015 Tory voters are eurosceptic as a majority.
Put the two together and it can be seen that online polls were better at estimating the 'right wing eurosceptic' bloc.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?
Er....? If I call you a paedophile, does that make you a paedophile then?
If disclosing certain opinions leads to society labelling me in a certain way, then by definition I am labelled in that way by society. One person applying the label doesn't mean much, most people applying it does. That's the crux of the racism vs immigration debate - there is a tension between the way in which "racism" is commonly understood and some of the desires to restrict immigration, to conserve "our" culture etc. To some degree there's going to end up being a choice being made between accepting the label "racist" or fighting to redefine it so that it's not applied to those of us who think it is appropriate to be able to control our borders so that there is a sensible employment market for "our" people (I'd just define that as "people who are already here" but it's a bit of a minefield). For now, the other way of avoiding the label is just to be "shy" and not disclose opinions that may be poorly regarded.
Obviously my comment was entirely facetious but there is a real factor to be considered given the emotive nature of the issue.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
I think Saatchi's have really got it wrong with their skinhead poster for OBV. They wanted PR controversy - they've got almost universal condemnation.
That's neither big nor clever.
Its tempting to think that is how some of the more arrogant sneering remainers see the typical leaver.
It seems that many Leavers - at least on here - regards all Remainers as arrogant and sneering. It's not a nice look. It's puzzling why people on both sides can't just accept there are different opinions. It has nothing to do with wickedness or venality, it's just about seeing the world in a different way.
I've mentioned before savvy EU migrants who come for just less than a year, then return home for a few weeks to reclaim their tax...
The number of migrants coming for between one and twelve months was 1.2 million in the year to the end of June 2014 which the ONS said was a “statistically significant” increase of 110,000 on the previous year.
Under double taxation rules they would still pay tax on UK earnings:
Every major party has more declared leavers online than over the 'phone. UKIP is actually the smallest discrepancy.
I can't think of a reason why Tory, Lib and Lab would all be more more likely to say leave on the internet apart from the anonymity, like a polling booth.
How many people that like to cast themselves as progressive and centrist are being untrue in polite company?
What on earth do the remaining 8.4% of Kippers think they are in the party for?
Shy Remainer Misogynists?
* get back behind those white goods, woman...*
get back behind those wonderful EU-standards-approved white goods...
Every major party has more declared leavers online than over the 'phone. UKIP is actually the smallest discrepancy.
I can't think of a reason why Tory, Lib and Lab would all be more more likely to say leave on the internet apart from the anonymity, like a polling booth.
How many people that like to cast themselves as progressive and centrist are being untrue in polite company?
That's great X vs Y - have shared.
"I can't think of a reason why Tory, Lib and Lab would all be more more likely to say leave on the internet apart from the anonymity, like a polling booth."
That's assuming they're the same people, phone and online. But it is possible, indeed certain to some extent, that different sorts of people respond online.
I think that was Leave grasping at straws, desperate for some totemic EU issue that would expose Ozzy as a vassal. But the man has triumphed yet again. I just hope those who doubted him don't make their apologies too grovelling.
Read it again - it appears to promise something - but doesn't.
"I've got the EU to agree to look at possible ways of making the CAP more flexible".
"Right we've looked at the possible ways and we think that on balance we have it just about right."
Christ on a bike talk about #WeaselWords.
Just because they agree to do something doesn't mean they will. If they look at something it doesn't mean they will draw any conclusions Even if they look at it they might decide nothing is possible. More flexible could just as easily mean more expensive as cheaper.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
I think Saatchi's have really got it wrong with their skinhead poster for OBV. They wanted PR controversy - they've got almost universal condemnation.
That's neither big nor clever.
Its tempting to think that is how some of the more arrogant sneering remainers see the typical leaver.
I think there's more than a kernel of truth in that. The client has an axe to grind, the agency is right-on and sympathetic. Reminds me of the Benetton Vietnam bloody army combats - did that make you want to buy jumpers? No. Did it stir up a giant fuss, yes.
UKIP were understated by all the telephone polls last May, as was the right wing bloc of Tory/UKIP.
The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.
And UKIP were overstated by most of the online polls
The potential failing with that line of thought is that right wing, eurosceptic opinion is not confined to UKIP. 2015 Tory voters are eurosceptic as a majority.
Put the two together and it can be seen that online polls were better at estimating the 'right wing eurosceptic' bloc.
I'm sorry it is nonsense to lump Tories and UKIP into a homogeneous right wing bloc.
UKIP have and are picking up votes from Labour and the left.
Is like saying all Greens are Labour voters, the London Mayoral example is a recent example of that being nonsense.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?
Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.
You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.
Or you could just be wrong.
Actually, you don't see Leave voters on the streets, as they have all been Sectioned....
Mr. Eagles, but the Conservatives/Labour shares wrong, no?
Yes, but there was no evidence of shy anyone, just the samples weren't representative.
There's no evidence for that claim either
In one sense though you've just played into the argument. It's the liars and "don't know" (leavers) that are part responsible for skewing the samples.
We also have evidence against the Shy Tories theory. We can examine the Shy Tory theory by considering where there is likely to be social pressure on Conservative voters. For example, it seems unlikely that Tories would need to be shy in the heavily Conservative Shires but it is more plausible that they would be by shy in traditional Labour heartlands like Sunderland. Figure 2 shows that we actually observe the opposite pattern. The deviation between the proportion of BES respondents saying they voted Conservative and the actual proportion of voters who did is highest in strong Conservative areas where we would expect the least social pressure against voting Conservative.
Yep I think the pollsters, like some of those on pb.com, have yet to face up properly to their ballsup. This is a good example. It's ludicrous to say people aren't shy in the tory shires: pollsters don't stand on Henley High Street these days you know TSE? If someone phones you up, and even on the internet, you're not likely to fess up to a position deemed toxic.
It's not rocket science but then I am trying to convince the person who wrote a Thread on Sunday 28th September 2014 in which he said: "Today extinguished the last hopes the Tories have of retaining power."
Have a good day ...
Scandalous misquoting of me there arsebot
Yes, you actually said "For those who were optimistic that the Tories would remain in power post May 2015, today probably extinguished those hopes."
Not sure there is any difference in the substance, but whatever.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?
Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.
You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.
Or you could just be wrong.
Actually, you don't see Leave voters on the streets, as they have all been Sectioned....
Yet they still post non-stop on here
Is a pity they aren't all out campaigning for Leave.
UKIP were understated by all the telephone polls last May, as was the right wing bloc of Tory/UKIP.
The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.
And UKIP were overstated by most of the online polls
The potential failing with that line of thought is that right wing, eurosceptic opinion is not confined to UKIP. 2015 Tory voters are eurosceptic as a majority.
Put the two together and it can be seen that online polls were better at estimating the 'right wing eurosceptic' bloc.
I'm sorry it is nonsense to lump Tories and UKIP into a homogeneous right wing bloc.
UKIP have and are picking up votes from Labour and the left.
Is like saying all Greens are Labour voters, the London Mayoral example is a recent example of that being nonsense.
You're in a feisty mood!
I don't think the London Mayoral vote is a good example to use of anything beyond the London Mayoral vote. Boris, a Tory, won successively in a Labour city etc. etc.
Mr. Eagles, but the Conservatives/Labour shares wrong, no?
Yes, but there was no evidence of shy anyone, just the samples weren't representative.
There's no evidence for that claim either
In one sense though you've just played into the argument. It's the liars and "don't know" (leavers) that are part responsible for skewing the samples.
We also have evidence against the Shy Tories theory. We can examine the Shy Tory theory by considering where there is likely to be social pressure on Conservative voters. For example, it seems unlikely that Tories would need to be shy in the heavily Conservative Shires but it is more plausible that they would be by shy in traditional Labour heartlands like Sunderland. Figure 2 shows that we actually observe the opposite pattern. The deviation between the proportion of BES respondents saying they voted Conservative and the actual proportion of voters who did is highest in strong Conservative areas where we would expect the least social pressure against voting Conservative.
Yep I think the pollsters, like some of those on pb.com, have yet to face up properly to their ballsup. This is a good example. It's ludicrous to say people aren't shy in the tory shires: pollsters don't stand on Henley High Street these days you know TSE? If someone phones you up, and even on the internet, you're not likely to fess up to a position deemed toxic.
It's not rocket science but then I am trying to convince the person who wrote a Thread on Sunday 28th September 2014 in which he said: "Today extinguished the last hopes the Tories have of retaining power."
Have a good day ...
Scandalous misquoting of me there arsebot
Yes, you actually said "For those who were optimistic that the Tories would remain in power post May 2015, today probably extinguished those hopes."
Not sure there is any difference in the substance, but whatever.
Thanks for confirming English isn't your first language.
Mr. Eagles, but the Conservatives/Labour shares wrong, no?
Yes, but there was no evidence of shy anyone, just the samples weren't representative.
There's no evidence for that claim either
In one sense though you've just played into the argument. It's the liars and "don't know" (leavers) that are part responsible for skewing the samples.
We also have evidence against the Shy Tories theory. We can examine the Shy Tory theory by considering where there is likely to be social pressure on Conservative voters. For example, it seems unlikely that Tories would need to be shy in the heavily Conservative Shires but it is more plausible that they would be by shy in traditional Labour heartlands like Sunderland. Figure 2 shows that we actually observe the opposite pattern. The deviation between the proportion of BES respondents saying they voted Conservative and the actual proportion of voters who did is highest in strong Conservative areas where we would expect the least social pressure against voting Conservative.
Yep I think the pollsters, like some of those on pb.com, have yet to face up properly to their ballsup. This is a good example. It's ludicrous to say people aren't shy in the tory shires: pollsters don't stand on Henley High Street these days you know TSE? If someone phones you up, and even on the internet, you're not likely to fess up to a position deemed toxic.
It's not rocket science but then I am trying to convince the person who wrote a Thread on Sunday 28th September 2014 in which he said: "Today extinguished the last hopes the Tories have of retaining power."
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?
Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.
You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.
Or you could just be wrong.
Actually, you don't see Leave voters on the streets, as they have all been Sectioned....
Yet they still post non-stop on here
Is a pity they aren't all out campaigning for Leave.
Mr. Eagles, but the Conservatives/Labour shares wrong, no?
Yes, but there was no evidence of shy anyone, just the samples weren't representative.
There's no evidence for that claim either
In one sense though you've just played into the argument. It's the liars and "don't know" (leavers) that are part responsible for skewing the samples.
We also have evidence against the Shy Tories theory. We can examine the Shy Tory theory by considering where there is likely to be social pressure on Conservative voters. For example, it seems unlikely that Tories would need to be shy in the heavily Conservative Shires but it is more plausible that they would be by shy in traditional Labour heartlands like Sunderland. Figure 2 shows that we actually observe the opposite pattern. The deviation between the proportion of BES respondents saying they voted Conservative and the actual proportion of voters who did is highest in strong Conservative areas where we would expect the least social pressure against voting Conservative.
Yep I think the pollsters, like some of those on pb.com, have yet to face up properly to their ballsup. This is a good example. It's ludicrous to say people aren't shy in the tory shires: pollsters don't stand on Henley High Street these days you know TSE? If someone phones you up, and even on the internet, you're not likely to fess up to a position deemed toxic.
It's not rocket science but then I am trying to convince the person who wrote a Thread on Sunday 28th September 2014 in which he said: "Today extinguished the last hopes the Tories have of retaining power."
Have a good day ...
Scandalous misquoting of me there arsebot
"Language, Timothy!"
Auto-correct, turns out Estobar is an anagram of Arsebot.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?
Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.
You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.
Or you could just be wrong.
Actually, you don't see Leave voters on the streets, as they have all been Sectioned....
Yet they still post non-stop on here
Is a pity they aren't all out campaigning for Leave.
We do our best on PB.com
Campaigning is great, more PBers should try it.
You need to make sure you wear decent/comfortable footwear, I'll be happy to help PBers choose the right footwear for campaigning.
UKIP were understated by all the telephone polls last May, as was the right wing bloc of Tory/UKIP.
The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.
And UKIP were overstated by most of the online polls
The potential failing with that line of thought is that right wing, eurosceptic opinion is not confined to UKIP. 2015 Tory voters are eurosceptic as a majority.
Put the two together and it can be seen that online polls were better at estimating the 'right wing eurosceptic' bloc.
I'm sorry it is nonsense to lump Tories and UKIP into a homogeneous right wing bloc.
UKIP have and are picking up votes from Labour and the left.
Is like saying all Greens are Labour voters, the London Mayoral example is a recent example of that being nonsense.
According to Wiki:
UKIP: Ideology: Euroscepticism[4][5] Right-wing populism[6] Economic liberalism[5] British unionism[7]
Political position: Right-wing[8]
Conservatives: Ideology: Conservatism[2] Economic liberalism[3] Soft Euroscepticism[3][4][5] Liberal conservatism[6][7][8]
Mr. Herdson, isn't an issue with Sanders that he'll be (effectively) the loser of the race, the supply teacher candidate? Biden would be stepping out of retirement (assuming he's retired). He's neither victor nor loser, but a third party, as it were.
But a very narrow loser against a candidate with every institutional advantage. Even now, he's still winning primaries.
To keep him out, a great majority of Hillary's delegates would need to switch to Biden. Certainly, Biden would have made a very strong candidate (indeed, I suspect that he might well have have won had he entered) but he didn't and it's Sanders who proved himself in votes, delegates and states. Were he to be passed over in favour of another Washington insider, I can see Sanders' voters taking it very badly. They might well switch to Hillary in November - the woman who beat Sanders fair and square - but would they come out for a parachuted Biden in the same way? I wouldn't like to predict it.
And don't forget Biden would be in his 75th year at the time of the 2017 inauguration (Sanders in his 76th).
Are these really credible candidates for POTUS?
Popes maybe - but to succeed a man who was elected aged 47 to the most powerful job in the world? [And look how he's aged!]
If Leave loses, David Cameron can presumably use Boris Johnson's direct assault today on the government's immigration policy as a reason for excluding him from the Cabinet? After all, Boris Johnson will find it impossible to maintain collective Cabinet responsibility on this subject now.
The Tories will have to drop all the nonsense about controlling immigration. If Remain wins, Conservative becomes a pro-immigration party.
All pro remain parties will,no way of controlling immigration unless you tell enough English to fcuk off.
So its come to a point where our own government can't stop mass immigration or don't want to,well the full signs must be nearly showing because I can't see how we going to cope with these sort of numbers coming here each year.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?
Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.
You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.
Or you could just be wrong.
Actually, you don't see Leave voters on the streets, as they have all been Sectioned....
Yet they still post non-stop on here
Is a pity they aren't all out campaigning for Leave.
We do our best on PB.com
Campaigning is great, more PBers should try it.
You need to make sure you wear decent/comfortable footwear, I'll be happy to help PBers choose the right footwear for campaigning.
I've mentioned before savvy EU migrants who come for just less than a year, then return home for a few weeks to reclaim their tax...
The number of migrants coming for between one and twelve months was 1.2 million in the year to the end of June 2014 which the ONS said was a “statistically significant” increase of 110,000 on the previous year.
Under double taxation rules they would still pay tax on UK earnings:
If Leave loses, David Cameron can presumably use Boris Johnson's direct assault today on the government's immigration policy as a reason for excluding him from the Cabinet? After all, Boris Johnson will find it impossible to maintain collective Cabinet responsibility on this subject now.
The Tories will have to drop all the nonsense about controlling immigration. If Remain wins, Conservative becomes a pro-immigration party.
All pro remain parties will,no way of controlling immigration unless you tell enough English to fcuk off.
So its come to a point where our own government can't stop mass immigration or don't want to,well the full signs must be nearly showing because I can't see how we going to cope with these sort of numbers coming here each year.
If we vote Remain we will specifically have voted for free movement within the EU. No-one can claim that they were not asked. Of course, the government is still perfectly capable of controlling non-EU immigration numbers.
UKIP were understated by all the telephone polls last May, as was the right wing bloc of Tory/UKIP.
The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.
And UKIP were overstated by most of the online polls
The potential failing with that line of thought is that right wing, eurosceptic opinion is not confined to UKIP. 2015 Tory voters are eurosceptic as a majority.
Put the two together and it can be seen that online polls were better at estimating the 'right wing eurosceptic' bloc.
I'm sorry it is nonsense to lump Tories and UKIP into a homogeneous right wing bloc.
UKIP have and are picking up votes from Labour and the left.
Is like saying all Greens are Labour voters, the London Mayoral example is a recent example of that being nonsense.
That is certainly true. In Wales UKIP disproportionately took Labour votes and cost it the Vale of Clwyd and Gower.
UKIP were understated by all the telephone polls last May, as was the right wing bloc of Tory/UKIP.
The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.
And UKIP were overstated by most of the online polls
The potential failing with that line of thought is that right wing, eurosceptic opinion is not confined to UKIP. 2015 Tory voters are eurosceptic as a majority.
Put the two together and it can be seen that online polls were better at estimating the 'right wing eurosceptic' bloc
I'm sorry it is nonsense to lump Tories and UKIP into a homogeneous right wing bloc.
UKIP have and are picking up votes from Labour and the left.
Is like saying all Greens are Labour voters, the London Mayoral example is a recent example of that being nonsense.
When I looked at the cross tabs of preferences there was a very heavy leaning/sharing between Green and Labour, just as there was between Tory and UKIP.
I am not suggesting they are absolutely identical, but the broad read across and relative sympathies are there, especially on certain topics like Europe/Immigration.
The hardest to gauge tend to be Liberal Democrats. They seem to swing both ways.
If Leave loses, David Cameron can presumably use Boris Johnson's direct assault today on the government's immigration policy as a reason for excluding him from the Cabinet? After all, Boris Johnson will find it impossible to maintain collective Cabinet responsibility on this subject now.
The Tories will have to drop all the nonsense about controlling immigration. If Remain wins, Conservative becomes a pro-immigration party.
All pro remain parties will,no way of controlling immigration unless you tell enough English to fcuk off.
So its come to a point where our own government can't stop mass immigration or don't want to,well the full signs must be nearly showing because I can't see how we going to cope with these sort of numbers coming here each year.
Where does this trust come from that says even if it could, the government of any flavour would rein in immigration?
Leavers are fond of telling us how if we stay, the EU will strike down Dave's negotiations, but at the same time have great faith that a future Labour government will somehow clamp down on immigration rather than encourage as much of it as possible.
The one scenario hasn't happened and is a matter of pure conjecture, whereas the other scenario happened in real life in living memory.
If Leave loses, David Cameron can presumably use Boris Johnson's direct assault today on the government's immigration policy as a reason for excluding him from the Cabinet? After all, Boris Johnson will find it impossible to maintain collective Cabinet responsibility on this subject now.
The Tories will have to drop all the nonsense about controlling immigration. If Remain wins, Conservative becomes a pro-immigration party.
All pro remain parties will,no way of controlling immigration unless you tell enough English to fcuk off.
So its come to a point where our own government can't stop mass immigration or don't want to,well the full signs must be nearly showing because I can't see how we going to cope with these sort of numbers coming here each year.
If we vote Remain we will specifically have voted for free movement within the EU. No-one can claim that they were not asked. Of course, the government is still perfectly capable of controlling non-EU immigration numbers.
Maybe. Or they specifically voted for not getting World War 3.
I'm increasingly convinced there's a big Shy Leave vote.
For betters: be careful, or act accordingly. And before you decry me, I made a stack of cash correctly calling GE2015.
Why?
How about people who are pissed off with being branded RAAAAAAACCCCIIIISTTTT!!! if they offer an opinion, deciding just to STFU until they can cast their vote? Just a thought.
So if I have this right, Leave are pinning their hopes on the shy racist vote?
Absolutely . You'll recognise them as you walk down the street they have big pointy white hoods with eye holes cut in them so you don;t know who they are.
You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.
Or you could just be wrong.
Actually, you don't see Leave voters on the streets, as they have all been Sectioned....
Yet they still post non-stop on here
Is a pity they aren't all out campaigning for Leave.
We do our best on PB.com
Campaigning is great, more PBers should try it.
You need to make sure you wear decent/comfortable footwear, I'll be happy to help PBers choose the right footwear for campaigning.
"Put on your red shoes and Vote for the Blues?"
It's no use Sunil, young Streetwalker has gone to the dark side.
UKIP were understated by all the telephone polls last May, as was the right wing bloc of Tory/UKIP.
The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.
And UKIP were overstated by most of the online polls
The potential failing with that line of thought is that right wing, eurosceptic opinion is not confined to UKIP. 2015 Tory voters are eurosceptic as a majority.
Put the two together and it can be seen that online polls were better at estimating the 'right wing eurosceptic' bloc
I'm sorry it is nonsense to lump Tories and UKIP into a homogeneous right wing bloc.
UKIP have and are picking up votes from Labour and the left.
Is like saying all Greens are Labour voters, the London Mayoral example is a recent example of that being nonsense.
When I looked at the cross tabs of preferences there was a very heavy leaning/sharing between Green and Labour, just as there was between Tory and UKIP.
I am not suggesting they are absolutely identical, but the broad read across and relative sympathies are there, especially on certain topics like Europe/Immigration.
The hardest to gauge tend to be Liberal Democrats. They seem to swing both ways.
Can you tell me the sample sizes of those cross tabs and MOE therein please
If Leave loses, David Cameron can presumably use Boris Johnson's direct assault today on the government's immigration policy as a reason for excluding him from the Cabinet? After all, Boris Johnson will find it impossible to maintain collective Cabinet responsibility on this subject now.
The Tories will have to drop all the nonsense about controlling immigration. If Remain wins, Conservative becomes a pro-immigration party.
All pro remain parties will,no way of controlling immigration unless you tell enough English to fcuk off.
So its come to a point where our own government can't stop mass immigration or don't want to,well the full signs must be nearly showing because I can't see how we going to cope with these sort of numbers coming here each year.
Where does this trust come from that says even if it could, the government of any flavour would rein in immigration?
Leavers are fond of telling us how if we stay, the EU will strike down Dave's negotiations, but at the same time have great faith that a future Labour government will somehow clamp down on immigration rather than encourage as much of it as possible.
The one scenario hasn't happened and is a matter of pure conjecture, whereas the other scenario happened in real life in living memory.
And we're supposed to take this logic seriously?
That depends if you believe the Tories are permanently camped in the centre ground. If so then Labour isnt going to get many votes from the centrist Guardianistas and their pro-EU, pro-federalism views, it is going to have to go fishing in other pools. Recent Labour writers about this such as Cruddas have talked about reconnecting with the working class vote as being the only way to get back into power, which means to some extent pulling them back from UKIP. So the new Labour party would have to be at least patriotic, if not outright Eurosceptic, which is basically was before Blair - or they can continue to try and grab the centrist votes from the LibDemsConservatives, and stay in opposition.
UKIP were understated by all the telephone polls last May, as was the right wing bloc of Tory/UKIP.
The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.
And UKIP were overstated by most of the online polls
The potential failing with that line of thought is that right wing, eurosceptic opinion is not confined to UKIP. 2015 Tory voters are eurosceptic as a majority.
Put the two together and it can be seen that online polls were better at estimating the 'right wing eurosceptic' bloc
I'm sorry it is nonsense to lump Tories and UKIP into a homogeneous right wing bloc.
UKIP have and are picking up votes from Labour and the left.
Is like saying all Greens are Labour voters, the London Mayoral example is a recent example of that being nonsense.
When I looked at the cross tabs of preferences there was a very heavy leaning/sharing between Green and Labour, just as there was between Tory and UKIP.
I am not suggesting they are absolutely identical, but the broad read across and relative sympathies are there, especially on certain topics like Europe/Immigration.
The hardest to gauge tend to be Liberal Democrats. They seem to swing both ways.
Can you tell me the sample sizes of those cross tabs and MOE therein please
MOE was zero, the sample was about 2.5m.
It's on the official London Elects site if I remember correctly.
His stated reason for wishing to leave the EU is similar to my main reason: "Neither side in this argument can predict the future 10, 20, 30 years from now so the question is what kind of arrangements will give us the best chance of handling whatever the future brings in a way that is best for our economy and society. I think the answer to that is a set up where we have maximum flexibility to respond to unpredictable things quickly and in a way we control rather than having to negotiate everything with a committee of 27 other (or more) countries with massively different circumstances."
Thanks for the linky. This reply caught my eye.
"I find it a mystery. I would have thought the corruption and corporate cronyism in Brussels, and the crushing of grassroots democratic freedoms that the EU represents would be total anathema to the left. I just don't understand why there aren't louder voices calling for us to leave.
As for the leave for democracy argument, it's easy for it to be dismissed as airy-fairy and conceptual compared to the gritty reality of how much more your holiday would cost - to pick one of the remain campaign's phoney scares. But in reality I think people are open to having a serious thoughtful conversation about what this decision means for the very long term. It's just that the campaigns are not really allowing them to do that. It's interesting that when we were testing different versions of our EU referendum voting guide at Crowdpac, we started with an assumption that it would need to be simple and quick but it turned out that the most popular version was the longest and most in-depth, and included many questions about the democratic aspects of this decision."
I've mentioned before savvy EU migrants who come for just less than a year, then return home for a few weeks to reclaim their tax...
The number of migrants coming for between one and twelve months was 1.2 million in the year to the end of June 2014 which the ONS said was a “statistically significant” increase of 110,000 on the previous year.
Under double taxation rules they would still pay tax on UK earnings:
I didn't see IDS being "setup" for the 4th time on DP as I had already switched over to the Parliament channel. If anyone can stand up to this blatant bias, then IDS can.
I switched over to watch George Osborne give John McDonnell a pasting (not a fan of either man). There is so much bad behaviour in the HoC at the moment and lines being crossed, most of it being allowed by a very poor Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
If Leave loses, David Cameron can presumably use Boris Johnson's direct assault today on the government's immigration policy as a reason for excluding him from the Cabinet? After all, Boris Johnson will find it impossible to maintain collective Cabinet responsibility on this subject now.
The Tories will have to drop all the nonsense about controlling immigration. If Remain wins, Conservative becomes a pro-immigration party.
All pro remain parties will,no way of controlling immigration unless you tell enough English to fcuk off.
So its come to a point where our own government can't stop mass immigration or don't want to,well the full signs must be nearly showing because I can't see how we going to cope with these sort of numbers coming here each year.
If we vote Remain we will specifically have voted for free movement within the EU. No-one can claim that they were not asked. Of course, the government is still perfectly capable of controlling non-EU immigration numbers.
Not with me and millions more I expect,people like you are not seeing the downside of EU open borders.
Comments
"I've got the EU to agree to look at possible ways of making the CAP more flexible".
"Right we've looked at the possible ways and we think that on balance we have it just about right."
In one sense though you've just played into the argument. It's the liars and "don't know" (leavers) that are part responsible for skewing the samples.
Percentage Declaring For Leave by 2015 Party Vote:
UKIP: 91.6 (phone) / 95.1 (online)
Tory: 50.3 (phone) / 58.7 (online)
Lab..: 28.5 (phone) / 33.7 (online)
Libs.: 22.6 (phone) / 34.3 (online)
Every major party has more declared leavers online than over the 'phone. UKIP is actually the smallest discrepancy.
I can't think of a reason why Tory, Lib and Lab would all be more more likely to say leave on the internet apart from the anonymity, like a polling booth.
How many people that like to cast themselves as progressive and centrist are being untrue in polite company?
This could be wrong, so to whoever wrote below about pinning hopes, it's not about that, it's about trying to call this right. I made money last time I bet big on UK politics and though I don't always go by feeling, this just feels right to me. It doesn't mean Leave will win, but I think a lot of the polls have Remain too high.
You cant walk round downtown Stratford on Avon without seeing hundreds of them.
Or you could just be wrong.
In the same way this June, much as it is hugely satisfying shouting "cry freedom", voters will not want to f&ck up the country by voting Leave.
That's neither big nor clever.
Just because they agree to do something doesn't mean they will.
If they look at something it doesn't mean they will draw any conclusions
Even if they look at it they might decide nothing is possible.
More flexible could just as easily mean more expensive as cheaper.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/735475609892179968
(I don't like the poster, myself.)
The swing equivalent from left to right was between 3.6% and 6.6%.
http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnet_live_events/2645261-Webchat-with-Steve-Hilton-ex-adviser-to-David-Cameron-and-author-of-More-Human-on-Thursday-26-May-at-1pm
His stated reason for wishing to leave the EU is similar to my main reason: "Neither side in this argument can predict the future 10, 20, 30 years from now so the question is what kind of arrangements will give us the best chance of handling whatever the future brings in a way that is best for our economy and society. I think the answer to that is a set up where we have maximum flexibility to respond to unpredictable things quickly and in a way we control rather than having to negotiate everything with a committee of 27 other (or more) countries with massively different circumstances."
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/why-did-the-polls-go-wrong-by-jon-mellon-and-chris-prosser/#.V0buwfkrLIU
It's not rocket science but then I am trying to convince the person who wrote a Thread on Sunday 28th September 2014 in which he said: "Today extinguished the last hopes the Tories have of retaining power."
Have a good day ...
(chart is from August 2014 up to election week)
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136
If that was true people like me wouldn't have spent six months telling everyone the Tories were going to win until we were shouted down or hounded out. Didn't matter: I made a packet.
Except it might backfire.
The whites will vote and say "how dare you tell me I'm racist"
And the non-whites will be worried that, if they vote, they'll be shouted at by a thug...
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596864382434418689
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596863875275948032
* get back behind those white goods, woman...*
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596863407774654464
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596863047102267392
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/10/so-were-there-really-shy-kippers/
Well done you.
Put the two together and it can be seen that online polls were better at estimating the 'right wing eurosceptic' bloc.
Obviously my comment was entirely facetious but there is a real factor to be considered given the emotive nature of the issue.
That's assuming they're the same people, phone and online. But it is possible, indeed certain to some extent, that different sorts of people respond online.
UKIP have and are picking up votes from Labour and the left.
Is like saying all Greens are Labour voters, the London Mayoral example is a recent example of that being nonsense.
Not sure there is any difference in the substance, but whatever.
For a link, but I don't think there's any way to upload.
I don't think the London Mayoral vote is a good example to use of anything beyond the London Mayoral vote. Boris, a Tory, won successively in a Labour city etc. etc.
A phrase used on another forum
You need to make sure you wear decent/comfortable footwear, I'll be happy to help PBers choose the right footwear for campaigning.
UKIP:
Ideology:
Euroscepticism[4][5]
Right-wing populism[6]
Economic liberalism[5]
British unionism[7]
Political position:
Right-wing[8]
Conservatives:
Ideology:
Conservatism[2]
Economic liberalism[3]
Soft Euroscepticism[3][4][5]
Liberal conservatism[6][7][8]
Political position:
Centre-right[9][10][11]
Are these really credible candidates for POTUS?
Popes maybe - but to succeed a man who was elected aged 47 to the most powerful job in the world? [And look how he's aged!]
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-bernie-sanders-agree-debate-n580641
So its come to a point where our own government can't stop mass immigration or don't want to,well the full signs must be nearly showing because I can't see how we going to cope with these sort of numbers coming here each year.
I am not suggesting they are absolutely identical, but the broad read across and relative sympathies are there, especially on certain topics like Europe/Immigration.
The hardest to gauge tend to be Liberal Democrats. They seem to swing both ways.
Leavers are fond of telling us how if we stay, the EU will strike down Dave's negotiations, but at the same time have great faith that a future Labour government will somehow clamp down on immigration rather than encourage as much of it as possible.
The one scenario hasn't happened and is a matter of pure conjecture, whereas the other scenario happened in real life in living memory.
And we're supposed to take this logic seriously?
Erm.....from the leader of the government telling us that immigration would be restricted to tens of thousands?
That is where the trust came from.
Trust that has now entirely evaporated. And not just on immigration. On everything.
Nobody in their right mind believes a word that comes out of David Cameron's mouth. Don;t take my word for it. That is what the polls say.
It's on the official London Elects site if I remember correctly.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
"I find it a mystery. I would have thought the corruption and corporate cronyism in Brussels, and the crushing of grassroots democratic freedoms that the EU represents would be total anathema to the left. I just don't understand why there aren't louder voices calling for us to leave.
As for the leave for democracy argument, it's easy for it to be dismissed as airy-fairy and conceptual compared to the gritty reality of how much more your holiday would cost - to pick one of the remain campaign's phoney scares. But in reality I think people are open to having a serious thoughtful conversation about what this decision means for the very long term. It's just that the campaigns are not really allowing them to do that. It's interesting that when we were testing different versions of our EU referendum voting guide at Crowdpac, we started with an assumption that it would need to be simple and quick but it turned out that the most popular version was the longest and most in-depth, and included many questions about the democratic aspects of this decision."
I think those odds represent value - I wouldn't consider laying over 50/1 right now.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/never-trump-2016-elections-libertarians-213917
Are there any other Gary Johnson backers on PB?
I switched over to watch George Osborne give John McDonnell a pasting (not a fan of either man). There is so much bad behaviour in the HoC at the moment and lines being crossed, most of it being allowed by a very poor Speaker and Deputy Speakers.