politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-Treasury minister & Brexiter, Angela Leadsom, is having
Comments
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Oh, this is rich.Scott_P said:
Hanging on my coattails again.Alanbrooke said:Ive been enjoying subverting his posts too much.
Maybe if you were just a bit smarter or funnier people would like your posts more?
As if you never re-post other people's tweets here or that the posts that are your own work are either smart or funny.0 -
London is overwhelmingly backing a vote to Remain in the European Union, a major opinion poll reveals today.
The capital is a clear 60-40 in favour of staying in Europe’s family of 28 nations, discounting don’t knows.
Exclusive research by Opinium for the Evening Standard reveals the 5.6 million eligible voters in London are far more pro-EU than the rest of the country.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/eu-referendum-london-backs-remain-vote-poll-shows-a3256001.html
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So one irate minister is representative of all Tory members who are in the Leave camp? Original thinking is not your forte, I guess that's why you stick to copying from people smarter than you.Scott_P said:
Ummm, that was the line briefed by a Brexit minister (which would seem to make them a fairly senior Tory) to a journalist.MaxPB said:you want to push this idiotic line that we're going to oust Cameron for IDS or Fox the day after the referendum
I claim no credit for it
I can see why you want to pretend it didn't happen0 -
Alanbrooke said:
Scott which of us could hope to aspire to your greatness ? riding on your coattails is just a pure delightScott_P said:
Hanging on my coattails again.Alanbrooke said:Ive been enjoying subverting his posts too much.
Maybe if you were just a bit smarter or funnier people would like your posts more?
I'm still chuckling over your put-down FPT re more letters after my name than in it. 0 -
you lads are doing your best, but we really need SeanT and his hormones for some decent entertainment valueMaxPB said:
So one irate minister is representative of all Tory members who are in the Leave camp? Original thinking is not your forte, I guess that's why you stick to copying from people smarter than you.Scott_P said:
Ummm, that was the line briefed by a Brexit minister (which would seem to make them a fairly senior Tory) to a journalist.MaxPB said:you want to push this idiotic line that we're going to oust Cameron for IDS or Fox the day after the referendum
I claim no credit for it
I can see why you want to pretend it didn't happen0 -
Um. No. Scott is just another sad troll who makes no real contribution to the debate beyond facile taunts and copying tweets.JohnO said:
Scott P is caustic, brutal and unrelenting on the referendum which is why he provokes the likes of Tyndale, Brookie, Casino et al into spluttering apoplexy: he's this site's Corporal Jones and they don't like it up 'em so they simply resort to crude personal abuse.MaxPB said:
Tbh, it's not easy being told by someone who isn't a member of any party how to proceed with the future of the Conservative party, of which both CR and I are members of and donate money to. Scott is a dick, he's not even funny like SeanT so he doesn't get a free pass for being a dick.JohnO said:
Hmm, once upon a time you assured me that you would never engage in personal attacks.Casino_Royale said:
You post dickish things, you write dickish things and you behave in a dickish way.Scott_P said:
Just the sort of reasoned argument and debate I have come to expect from my fans, who keep boasting about how clever they are.Casino_Royale said:Scott is just a dick.
Oh dear.
So you are, in short, a bit of a dick.
But that's ok - I'm sure you have some fans.
Somewhere.
The idea that all Leavers want to bring back IDS is something Scott continues to push, yet I have seen no evidence of that at any local meeting or at any VL event I've been to. However, I'm constantly being told that Eurosceptic Tories are in favour of bringing back IDS by someone who's not in the party. You know this as well as I do, there is no appetite from any side to bring in anyone like IDS, there may be a few die hard fools like Montie, but they are no where near the majority, or even any kind of minority.
I certainly do not agree with the proposition that all Tory Leavers want IDS back as leader: the figure is probably less than 1%, but the antics of some Tory backbench members (e.g. on the T-TIP NHS amendmenr last week) give worrying credence to the view that ousting Cameron is a higer priority than supporting a Conservative government.
I could talk all day with intelligent Remainders like Southam or Carlotta, Rob D or Tyson. They make reasoned judgements and whilst they come to a different conclusion they are able to justify their positions well and are just as clear about why they think as they do as any Brexiter on here.
Other like Scott or Topping really do seem to feel they have lost the actual arguments even whilst perhaps winning the war and so - particularly in Scott's case - resort to simple trolling in the absence of anything constructive or intelligent to say.0 -
Fortunately there are some intelligent Norn Irish about
Brexit: Majority of NI voters want UK to remain in EU
Poll finds 57 per cent of people in Northern Ireland intend to vote to stay in EU
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-majority-of-ni-voters-want-uk-to-remain-in-eu-1.2659936?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
The people he's retweeting aren't really Brain of Britain material either, let's be honest.MaxPB said:
So one irate minister is representative of all Tory members who are in the Leave camp? Original thinking is not your forte, I guess that's why you stick to copying from people smarter than you.Scott_P said:
Ummm, that was the line briefed by a Brexit minister (which would seem to make them a fairly senior Tory) to a journalist.MaxPB said:you want to push this idiotic line that we're going to oust Cameron for IDS or Fox the day after the referendum
I claim no credit for it
I can see why you want to pretend it didn't happen0 -
I scroll by them, but those quoted by others seem to be 90% left-wing journalists.Luckyguy1983 said:
The people he's retweeting aren't really Brain of Britain material either, let's be honest.MaxPB said:
So one irate minister is representative of all Tory members who are in the Leave camp? Original thinking is not your forte, I guess that's why you stick to copying from people smarter than you.Scott_P said:
Ummm, that was the line briefed by a Brexit minister (which would seem to make them a fairly senior Tory) to a journalist.MaxPB said:you want to push this idiotic line that we're going to oust Cameron for IDS or Fox the day after the referendum
I claim no credit for it
I can see why you want to pretend it didn't happen0 -
As if by magic...dugarbandier said:you lads are doing your best, but we really need SeanT and his hormones for some decent entertainment value
@thomasknox: My head says, very reluctantly, REMAIN. My heart says LEAVE!!!!!!
"The heart has its reasons of which reason knows nothing".
Wibble-wobble0 -
...are clearly smart enough to know what retweet means, unlike ANY of my fans.Luckyguy1983 said:The people he's retweeting
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well I don't usually use the O level certificate argument, but I'd say anyone who can stick the pace on PB for more than 6 months is not an idiot, Most of our posters here are well qualified, have or have done meaningful jobs in commerce or politics, are fairly articulate and don't really deserve the title idiot.Plato_Says said:Alanbrooke said:
Scott which of us could hope to aspire to your greatness ? riding on your coattails is just a pure delightScott_P said:
Hanging on my coattails again.Alanbrooke said:Ive been enjoying subverting his posts too much.
Maybe if you were just a bit smarter or funnier people would like your posts more? I'm still chuckling over your put-down FPT re more letters after my name than in it.
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I didn't think Leicester would be doing that bad, I thought it's economy was doing o.k and house prices were low enough for a higher disposable income. I thought maybe somewhere on the southern coast would have high house prices due to be close enough to London but not enough jobs.Plato_Says said:Some fascinating stuff from ONS today
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/735388081709326336
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/7353879264403333120 -
If you want to enrage PB Leavers Scott, tell them you're campaigning for Remain. Their reactions are hilarious.Scott_P said:
As if by magic...dugarbandier said:you lads are doing your best, but we really need SeanT and his hormones for some decent entertainment value
@thomasknox: My head says, very reluctantly, REMAIN. My heart says LEAVE!!!!!!
"The heart has its reasons of which reason knows nothing".
Wibble-wobble0 -
Plato, I know you don't read my posts any more, which makes it really amusing to see you posting something I posted moments earlier.Plato_Says said:I scroll by them, but those quoted by others seem to be 90% left-wing journalists.
Happens quite a lot these days.0 -
They also fund the UK part of this research.Plato_Says said:
I'm more concerned that the ESRC are a quango funded by BIS. They're not looking for a neutral answer for their money. Wiki.chestnut said:
I am largely in agreement with you, but when money changes hands and businesses are reliant on certain funders for contracts, it will always give rise to doubt.Cyclefree said:
We are all open to influence. That is very different from saying that someone who can be influenced is lacking in honesty. Or that their honesty is in doubt - a serious charge. Such a charge should not be made without some evidence.
Leave should be questioning the assumptions and the figures and the methodologies not assuming that because some money was received from the EU (much as Messrs Farage and Hannan get their income from the EU) the person or institution making the analysis is therefore automatically not worth listening to.
There may be nothing substantive behind it, but the doubt will be there.
The Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) is one of the seven Research Councils in the United Kingdom. It receives most of its funding from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, and provides funding and support for research and training work in social and economic issues, such as postgraduate degrees.
http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/data/country_index.html
It was all about immigration, democracy and the EU in 2014.0 -
You remember that TTOI episode "Silly Tucker " where Malcolm becomes the story .......Scott_P said:
...are clearly smart enough to know what retweet means, unlike ANY of my fans.Luckyguy1983 said:The people he's retweeting
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Please avoid that pun -- this is not the Betfair forum.TheScreamingEagles said:
Brace yourself. In the next I shall be publishing a piece on why PBers should be laying Priti Patel. As next Tory leader.SandyRentool said:On topic, I fully agree that a senior female figure from the Leave campaign would be a good option for next Tory leader/PM.
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Thanks. Received and replied. Live long and prosper!Casino_Royale said:
VM for you.JohnO said:
Scott P is caustic, brutal and unrelenting on the referendum which is why he provokes the likes of Tyndale, Brookie, Casino et al into spluttering apoplexy: he's this site's Corporal Jones and they don't like it up 'em so they simply resort to crude personal abuse.MaxPB said:
Tbh, it's not easy being told by someone who isn't a member of any party how to proceed with the future of the Conservative party, of which both CR and I are members of and donate money to. Scott is a dick, he's not even funny like SeanT so he doesn't get a free pass for being a dick.JohnO said:
Hmm, once upon a time you assured me that you would never engage in personal attacks.Casino_Royale said:
You post dickish things, you write dickish things and you behave in a dickish way.Scott_P said:
Just the sort of reasoned argument and debate I have come to expect from my fans, who keep boasting about how clever they are.Casino_Royale said:Scott is just a dick.
Oh dear.
So you are, in short, a bit of a dick.
But that's ok - I'm sure you have some fans.
Somewhere.
The idea that all Leavers want to bring back IDS is something Scott continues to push, yet I have seen no evidence of that at any local meeting or at any VL event I've been to. However, I'm constantly being told that Eurosceptic Tories are in favour of bringing back IDS by someone who's not in the party. You know this as well as I do, there is no appetite from any side to bring in anyone like IDS, there may be a few die hard fools like Montie, but they are no where near the majority, or even any kind of minority.
I certainly do not agree with the proposition that all Tory Leavers want IDS back as leader: the figure is probably less than 1%, but the antics of some Tory backbench members (e.g. on the T-TIP NHS amendmenr last week) give worrying credence to the view that ousting Cameron is a higer priority than supporting a Conservative government.0 -
To post something as unpleasant about someone as you have done all morning says way more about you than Scott-P. If you don't like it why not move on and be the bigger person.MaxPB said:
And you know this how? You aren't a member of the party, you aren't in VL? How do you know what the consensus of Eurosceptic Tories is? I am a member and I have been active with VL, there is no appetite for IDS or anyone like him. You like to believe that people like Montie represent mainstream Tories (and leavers are the mainstream, even in London there is a 60/40 split in favour of Leave among the members I speak to) because you want to push this idiotic line that we're going to oust Cameron for IDS or Fox the day after the referendum.Scott_P said:
Link?MaxPB said:The idea that all Leavers want to bring back IDS is something Scott continues to push,
I don't recall ever pushing such a line.
I have said IDS is a poster boy for Brexiteers, they long for the heady days of failure under his leadership as they prefer that to winning under Cameron, I have noted when they praised his performance, and when others have been critical of his dreadful delivery, but those are not endorsements...
You are a clueless chump who sits on twitter all day and thinks that is what constitutes real life. I don't hate you or even dislike you, I just pity your dreadful existence.-1 -
Not quite Brookie-esque on Osborne, could live with May.Casino_Royale said:
What is your view on Osborne and May, John?JohnO said:
If Remain wins by, say, the latest ARSE projection, and were he to accept the result as binding for a generation, then my man at present could well be Michael Gove.JackW said:
JohnO - In 2019/20 who is your prefered candidate to succeed Cameron?JohnO said:I certainly do not agree with the proposition that all Tory Leavers want IDS back as leader: the figure is probably less than 1%, but the antics of some Tory backbench members (e.g. on the T-TIP NHS amendmenr last week) give worrying credence to the view that ousting Cameron is a higer priority than supporting a Conservative government.
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we're just too busy being nice friendly people to worry about itTheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately there are some intelligent Norn Irish about
Brexit: Majority of NI voters want UK to remain in EU
Poll finds 57 per cent of people in Northern Ireland intend to vote to stay in EU
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-majority-of-ni-voters-want-uk-to-remain-in-eu-1.2659936?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/northern-ireland-named-friendliest-parts-of-the-uk--but-which-ar/
knowing what I'm like on a good day you must be like a honeybadger with a hangover.0 -
I'm known for my puns. I'm the chap that repeatedly did PB threads about Ed Balls and him being Balls deep in troubleDecrepitJohnL said:
Please avoid that pun -- this is not the Betfair forum.TheScreamingEagles said:
Brace yourself. In the next I shall be publishing a piece on why PBers should be laying Priti Patel. As next Tory leader.SandyRentool said:On topic, I fully agree that a senior female figure from the Leave campaign would be a good option for next Tory leader/PM.
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Punters not believing the polls? Plus signs of major Remain complacency.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Oh, their opinions must be worth reading then.Scott_P said:
...are clearly smart enough to know what retweet means, unlike ANY of my fans.Luckyguy1983 said:The people he's retweeting
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Apart from wiki is there a link to updated polls?TheScreamingEagles said:
There's been two polls to have it neck and neck in the last 18 hours. First ICM online then YouGov.Estobar said:Anyone able to answer my question? It's ICM not YouGov that's the new neck and neck surely?
This thread is about YouGov, the previous thread was about ICM online.0 -
My three year old daughter called me "a stupid dick" the other day at a barbeque. We were all in shock! Like, where'd she get that from??Alanbrooke said:
well I don't usually use the O level certificate argument, but I'd say anyone who can stick the pace on PB for more than 6 months is not an idiot, Most of our posters here are well qualified, have or have done meaningful jobs in commerce or politics, are fairly articulate and don't really deserve the title idiot.Plato_Says said:Alanbrooke said:
Scott which of us could hope to aspire to your greatness ? riding on your coattails is just a pure delightScott_P said:
Hanging on my coattails again.Alanbrooke said:Ive been enjoying subverting his posts too much.
Maybe if you were just a bit smarter or funnier people would like your posts more? I'm still chuckling over your put-down FPT re more letters after my name than in it.
She was on the money though
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Don't be harsh on Carlotta, Southam, RobD or Tyson.Richard_Tyndall said:
Um. No. Scott is just another sad troll who makes no real contribution to the debate beyond facile taunts and copying tweets.JohnO said:
Scott P is caustic, brutal and unrelenting on the referendum which is why he provokes the likes of Tyndale, Brookie, Casino et al into spluttering apoplexy: he's this site's Corporal Jones and they don't like it up 'em so they simply resort to crude personal abuse.MaxPB said:
Tbh, it's not easy being told by someone who isn't a member of any party how to proceed with the future of the Conservative party, of which both CR and I are members of and donate money to. Scott is a dick, he's not even funny like SeanT so he doesn't get a free pass for being a dick.JohnO said:
Hmm, once upon a time you assured me that you would never engage in personal attacks.Casino_Royale said:
You post dickish things, you write dickish things and you behave in a dickish way.Scott_P said:
Just the sort of reasoned argument and debate I have come to expect from my fans, who keepCasino_Royale said:Scott is just a dick.
Oh dear.
So you are, in short, a bit of a dick.
But that's ok - I'm sure you have some fans.
Somewhere.
The idea that all Leavers want to bring back IDS is something Scott continues to push, yet I have seen no evidence of that at any local meeting or at any VL event I've been to. However, I'm constantly being told that Eurosceptic Tories are in favour of bringing back IDS by someone who's not in the party. You know this as well as I do, there is no appetite from any side to bring in anyone like IDS, there may be a few die hard fools like Montie, but they are no where near the majority, or even any kind of minority.
I certainly do not agree with the proposition that all Tory Leavers want IDS back as leader: the figure is probably less than 1%, but the antics of some Tory backbench members (e.g. on the T-TIP NHS amendmenr last week) give worrying credence to the view that ousting Cameron is a higer priority than supporting a Conservative government.
I could talk all day with intelligent Remainders like Southam or Carlotta, Rob D or Tyson. They make reasoned judgements and whilst they come to a different conclusion they are able to justify their positions well and are just as clear about why they think as they do as any Brexiter on here.
Other like Scott or Topping really do seem to feel they have lost the actual arguments even whilst perhaps winning the war and so - particularly in Scott's case - resort to simple trolling in the absence of anything constructive or intelligent to say.
They are excellent posters.0 -
And the start of purdah. Level playing field kicks in. No more robbing the taxpayers to try and convince the, er, taxpayer of the merits of the EU.rottenborough said:
Punters not believing the polls? Plus signs of major Remain complacency.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
unarmed father-of-two was shot dead in a hotel by Arizona police officer while on an out-of-town business trip
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3607714/Unsealed-Arizona-police-video-omits-shooting-unarmed-man.html
#WhiteLivesMatter ? No?
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Revenge is a dish bestTGOHF said:
Looking forward to Scott's contortions when he tries to enthuse pissed off Con voters to support GO in the forthcoming leadership elections. The ones he's spent the last 3 months mocking. Tough gig that one.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd say more repetitive, inane, and with a sort of dogged masochistic persistence in the face of mockery.JohnO said:
Scott P is caustic, brutal and unrelenting on the referendum .MaxPB said:
Tbh, it's not easy being told by someone who isn't a member of any party how to proceed with the future of the Conservative party, of which both CR and I are members of and donate money to. Scott is a dick, he's not even funny like SeanT so he doesn't get a free pass for being a dick.JohnO said:
Hmm, once upon a time you assured me that you would never engage in personal attacks.Casino_Royale said:
You post dickish things, you write dickish things and you behave in a dickish way.Scott_P said:
Just the sort of reasoned argument and debate I have come to expect from my fans, who keep boasting about how clever they are.Casino_Royale said:Scott is just a dick.
Oh dear.
So you are, in short, a bit of a dick.
But that's ok - I'm sure you have some fans.
Somewhere.
The idea that all Leavers want to bring back IDS is something Scott continues to push, yet I have seen no evidence of that at any local meeting or at any VL event I've been to. However, I'm constantly being told that Eurosceptic Tories are in favour of bringing back IDS by someone who's not in the party. You know this as well as I do, there is no appetite from any side to bring in anyone like IDS, there may be a few die hard fools like Montie, but they are no where near the majority, or even any kind of minority.
If he is a CCHQ troll (and I'm cautious about accusing with no proof as I've had to deal with similar here), I wish they'd give him a break or rotate him around different websites or something - I feel sorry for the guy. It's a brutal shift pattern and on a very politically engaged site he's not forming opinions or persuading anyone.eaten coldgorged upon....0 -
Yes, speaking every night reminds you who is in charge - the Voter - and I think thats also why Thatcher relished PMQs - direct contact with the voter's proxy in parliament.DecrepitJohnL said:
What is interesting is Mrs Thatcher having spoken "every night" during the election. It is this tradecraft the SpAd generation of MPs on both sides typically lacks. They can't speak, they can't persuade, and a lot of them can't see any need to.
It was when she lost contact with her backbench MPs that her time was up....
Many politicians now behave as if the most important thing is contact with other politicians.....Voters a tiresome chore....0 -
Precedence suggests that purdah is no obstacle to the unleashing of 'Vow II, this time we really mean it'.MarqueeMark said:
And the start of purdah. Level playing field kicks in. No more robbing the taxpayers to try and convince the, er, taxpayer of the merits of the EU.rottenborough said:
Punters not believing the polls? Plus signs of major Remain complacency.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Usually the pinned tweet atop Mike's Twitter feedEstobar said:
Apart from wiki is there a link to updated polls?TheScreamingEagles said:
There's been two polls to have it neck and neck in the last 18 hours. First ICM online then YouGov.Estobar said:Anyone able to answer my question? It's ICM not YouGov that's the new neck and neck surely?
This thread is about YouGov, the previous thread was about ICM online.0 -
@nicholaswatt: How @vote_leave adapting tactics to focus on immigration in get out vote strategy as pollsters suggest low turnout https://t.co/yT3u01TskM
Hmmm. Left wing journalist. Not very bright according to the PB brain trust. Should probably be ignored. That story not likely to have any effect on current politics or the referendum outcome. Shouldn't post it.
Prompted this reply
@SophyRidgeSky: I wonder if this means Vote Leave will hold their noses & do more with @Nigel_Farage https://t.co/p2obqn8CZc
Another probably dim journalist. Not important. Just scroll past.0 -
My thread on Sunday wot did it.rottenborough said:
Punters not believing the polls? Plus signs of major Remain complacency.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the price on Betfair is largely unmoved0 -
Thanks. That's interesting.JohnO said:
Not quite Brookie-esque on Osborne, could live with May.Casino_Royale said:
What is your view on Osborne and May, John?JohnO said:
If Remain wins by, say, the latest ARSE projection, and were he to accept the result as binding for a generation, then my man at present could well be Michael Gove.JackW said:
JohnO - In 2019/20 who is your prefered candidate to succeed Cameron?JohnO said:I certainly do not agree with the proposition that all Tory Leavers want IDS back as leader: the figure is probably less than 1%, but the antics of some Tory backbench members (e.g. on the T-TIP NHS amendmenr last week) give worrying credence to the view that ousting Cameron is a higer priority than supporting a Conservative government.
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Clever girl, must take after her mother!Fenster said:
My three year old daughter called me "a stupid dick" the other day at a barbeque. We were all in shock! Like, where'd she get that from??Alanbrooke said:
well I don't usually use the O level certificate argument, but I'd say anyone who can stick the pace on PB for more than 6 months is not an idiot, Most of our posters here are well qualified, have or have done meaningful jobs in commerce or politics, are fairly articulate and don't really deserve the title idiot.Plato_Says said:Alanbrooke said:
Scott which of us could hope to aspire to your greatness ? riding on your coattails is just a pure delightScott_P said:
Hanging on my coattails again.Alanbrooke said:Ive been enjoying subverting his posts too much.
Maybe if you were just a bit smarter or funnier people would like your posts more? I'm still chuckling over your put-down FPT re more letters after my name than in it.
She was on the money though 0 -
Language is defined by usage not the other way round. Everyone knows what they mean when they say it so they are communicating effectively.Scott_P said:
Is a SINGLE one of my fans smart enough to figure out what the word retweet means?MaxPB said:Retweeting stuff written by people smarter than him
Not looking hopeful...0 -
Campaigners have warned that people who don't buy any food may starve to death:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36332411
"Millions entitled to a vote in the EU referendum could miss out because they are not on the electoral register, campaigners have warned."0 -
When you use one word, for which there is a unique, specific and defined meaning in place of another word which has a specific and defined meaning for the event you are describing, then you are just plain wrong.Alistair said:Language is defined by usage not the other way round. Everyone knows what they mean when they say it so they are communicating effectively.
This is not Wonderland0 -
As a Scottish PBer discussing precedence what is your view on the place of the Keeper of the Great Seal of Scotland?Theuniondivvie said:
Precedence suggests that purdah is no obstacle to the unleashing of 'Vow II, this time we really mean it'.
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Ho Ho Ho
‘Brexit’ Campaigners Heaped Praise On Institute Of Fiscal Studies It Now Says Does ‘Propaganda’
Vote Leave left ‘red-faced’ after damning IFS think-tank once hailed as ‘fantastic’
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/ifs-propaganda-praise-gove-duncan-smith_uk_57456a3de4b03e9b9ed4fa2d?edition=uk&fx14te29=
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What would Vow 2 consist of?Theuniondivvie said:
Precedence suggests that purdah is no obstacle to the unleashing of 'Vow II, this time we really mean it'.MarqueeMark said:
And the start of purdah. Level playing field kicks in. No more robbing the taxpayers to try and convince the, er, taxpayer of the merits of the EU.rottenborough said:
Punters not believing the polls? Plus signs of major Remain complacency.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That's actually pretty good for Leave. Bearing in mind how poor UKIP does in London, I would have expected 70-30 RemainTheScreamingEagles said:London is overwhelmingly backing a vote to Remain in the European Union, a major opinion poll reveals today.
The capital is a clear 60-40 in favour of staying in Europe’s family of 28 nations, discounting don’t knows.
Exclusive research by Opinium for the Evening Standard reveals the 5.6 million eligible voters in London are far more pro-EU than the rest of the country.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/eu-referendum-london-backs-remain-vote-poll-shows-a3256001.html0 -
Gordon Brown, yours to do with as you wish at weekends...Luckyguy1983 said:
What would Vow 2 consist of?Theuniondivvie said:
Precedence suggests that purdah is no obstacle to the unleashing of 'Vow II, this time we really mean it'.MarqueeMark said:
And the start of purdah. Level playing field kicks in. No more robbing the taxpayers to try and convince the, er, taxpayer of the merits of the EU.rottenborough said:
Punters not believing the polls? Plus signs of major Remain complacency.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Did somebody say Foreign Aid?kjohnw said:
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit. And I think the idea of a poster with merkel and Cameron in her top pocket would be brilliant.chestnut said:Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
How about this for a poster - note that I insist on the net amount in order to outflank any REMAIN whingeing about "but that's the gross amount!"
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/7326348810297262080 -
Sterling is strengthening against the Euro again. Now €1.31.
It seems to move up about 1cent for every 2% increase in probability of remain. It has moved up 6 cent as probability of Remain has moved from 68% to 80%. I know correlation is not causation but there is reason to suspect causation in this case, and the sterling/euro does seem to move up and down in sync with euref sentiment.
Taken to its logical conclusion, if the result is REMAIN then Sterling should move to €1.41. However, using the same logic, if the result is LEAVE, then Sterling should drop to €0.91!
0 -
Prime "remain" territory, surely 60-40 in London for "Remain" is actually quite good for "leave" ?TheScreamingEagles said:London is overwhelmingly backing a vote to Remain in the European Union, a major opinion poll reveals today.
The capital is a clear 60-40 in favour of staying in Europe’s family of 28 nations, discounting don’t knows.
Exclusive research by Opinium for the Evening Standard reveals the 5.6 million eligible voters in London are far more pro-EU than the rest of the country.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/eu-referendum-london-backs-remain-vote-poll-shows-a3256001.html0 -
You're only humanchestnut said:
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, 0 -
Pledge for UK referendum on Turkey joining the EU.Luckyguy1983 said:
What would Vow 2 consist of?Theuniondivvie said:
Precedence suggests that purdah is no obstacle to the unleashing of 'Vow II, this time we really mean it'.MarqueeMark said:
And the start of purdah. Level playing field kicks in. No more robbing the taxpayers to try and convince the, er, taxpayer of the merits of the EU.rottenborough said:
Punters not believing the polls? Plus signs of major Remain complacency.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Unsurprising, I think the phone polls have it right as well, Leave are about 10 points behind at the moment and need a 5 point swing to get into contention. I'm not sure how that can be achieved.TheScreamingEagles said:
My thread on Sunday wot did it.rottenborough said:
Punters not believing the polls? Plus signs of major Remain complacency.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the price on Betfair is largely unmoved0 -
Eugh sub 1.3 pleaseBarnesian said:Sterling is strengthening against the Euro again. Now €1.31.
It seems to move up about 1cent for every 2% increase in probability of remain. It has moved up 6 cent as probability of Remain has moved from 68% to 80%. I know correlation is not causation but there is reason to suspect causation in this case, and the sterling/euro does seem to move up and down in sync with euref sentiment.
Taken to its logical conclusion, if the result is REMAIN then Sterling should move to €1.41. However, using the same logic, if the result is LEAVE, then Sterling should drop to €0.91!
0 -
By the way TSE, I thought the last thread was someone blathering on about what old men get up to on Friday nights.0
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It compares with 52/48 nationally. Leave need to get the Remain vote below 58% in London to win.Pulpstar said:
Prime "remain" territory, surely 60-40 in London for "Remain" is actually quite good for "leave" ?TheScreamingEagles said:London is overwhelmingly backing a vote to Remain in the European Union, a major opinion poll reveals today.
The capital is a clear 60-40 in favour of staying in Europe’s family of 28 nations, discounting don’t knows.
Exclusive research by Opinium for the Evening Standard reveals the 5.6 million eligible voters in London are far more pro-EU than the rest of the country.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/eu-referendum-london-backs-remain-vote-poll-shows-a3256001.html0 -
You are clearly the psephological equivalent of pinning the tail on the donkey.MaxPB said:
Unsurprising, I think the phone polls have it right as well, Leave are about 10 points behind at the moment and need a 5 point swing to get into contention. I'm not sure how that can be achieved.TheScreamingEagles said:
My thread on Sunday wot did it.rottenborough said:
Punters not believing the polls? Plus signs of major Remain complacency.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the price on Betfair is largely unmoved0 -
Ladies & Gentlemen, boys & girls.....a little reality check.....
After a whole month of campaigning (you sure - feels longer - ed.) there is almost no shift in attitude to the EU, whether BREXIT would be good or bad or trust in politicians - its as flat as a bloomin pancake.....
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8j6845m5qq/TimesResults_160524_EURef&ToryLeadership_W.pdf0 -
You missed this bitEstobar said:By the way TSE, I thought the last thread was someone blathering on about what old men get up to on Friday nights.
The latest poll sees IN and OUT level pegging following a 4% OUT lead in last week’s poll.0 -
I agree with Alistair Meeks' comment "I take the BES survey very seriously and so should you."MaxPB said:
Unsurprising, I think the phone polls have it right as well, Leave are about 10 points behind at the moment and need a 5 point swing to get into contention. I'm not sure how that can be achieved.TheScreamingEagles said:
My thread on Sunday wot did it.rottenborough said:
Punters not believing the polls? Plus signs of major Remain complacency.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the price on Betfair is largely unmoved
One year ago, the BES had Remain leading by 47-30%. Now they have Remain leading by 43-40%.0 -
Let me know if you find out who Kevin will be "lending his support to" (When the time comes). Probably the winner of the contest tbh.MarqueeMark said:0 -
Encouraging news in that article about number of young people signing up to vote.Morris_Dancer said:Campaigners have warned that people who don't buy any food may starve to death:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36332411
"Millions entitled to a vote in the EU referendum could miss out because they are not on the electoral register, campaigners have warned."0 -
The Leave vote seems fairly solid at around c.40%MaxPB said:
Unsurprising, I think the phone polls have it right as well, Leave are about 10 points behind at the moment and need a 5 point swing to get into contention. I'm not sure how that can be achieved.TheScreamingEagles said:
My thread on Sunday wot did it.rottenborough said:
Punters not believing the polls? Plus signs of major Remain complacency.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the price on Betfair is largely unmoved
The real question is whether Remain is at c.45% or 55% and how the don't knows split, and who turns out and who doesn't.0 -
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Andy Burnham?Sean_F said:0 -
A footnote after a page and not one single mention of which poll it was (or at best a non sequitur), nor the details. Not bad for a betting site.TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed this bitEstobar said:By the way TSE, I thought the last thread was someone blathering on about what old men get up to on Friday nights.
The latest poll sees IN and OUT level pegging following a 4% OUT lead in last week’s poll.
As I've said before, this site badly needs an editor to cut back the verbosity from thread writers.
0 -
This morning's popcorn entertainment seems to be over at @DPJHodges where he has got into a spat with George Monbiot over whether the latter said HRC would be worse than Trump.0
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It certainly makes talk of a clear win that defeats Leave for all time quite risible....Pulpstar said:
Prime "remain" territory, surely 60-40 in London for "Remain" is actually quite good for "leave" ?TheScreamingEagles said:London is overwhelmingly backing a vote to Remain in the European Union, a major opinion poll reveals today.
The capital is a clear 60-40 in favour of staying in Europe’s family of 28 nations, discounting don’t knows.
Exclusive research by Opinium for the Evening Standard reveals the 5.6 million eligible voters in London are far more pro-EU than the rest of the country.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/eu-referendum-london-backs-remain-vote-poll-shows-a3256001.html
And let's see just how much of that supposed Remain block sits it out with the Can't Be Arsed Party on the day... The number of people who hate the EU is big. The number who love the EU is tiny. The number of people who are "Meh...." is vast. Remain has to motivate the Meh. So far they have shown nothing positive. Only Project Fear. The great unknown in this Referendum is whether Project Feat top-trumps Meh. If not - Leave could* win.
(*"Could" here being used in the Leave sense of a realistic possibility, rather than the Remain use of "Could", as in "we don't believe there's a cat in hells chance it WOULD happen, but fuck it, throw it in the mix....we've got nothing else to say...")0 -
Professor Curtice has been giving his thoughts
"Apart from one point we have always had Remain ahead on average. This is a race that has been remarkably stable"
"The internet polls have been very consistent, on average saying 50-50"
"now getting more phone polls that put Remain ahead but cannot assume this is real change bc of phone/online differences"
"on average since April Remain has increased by only 1 point, quite different to media coverage"
"Have Tory supporters moved? I took all polls April-May. 2015 Con voter support for Remain +5 pts.. perhaps!"
"Labour voters not moved at all. 70-30 for Remain in April and that is still the case"
"Age gap still looks v similar. Majority of 1975 voters are for Brexit contrary to the recent Telegraph front page"
"don't knows in EU ref, when squeezed, more likely to back Remain but that is often already factored in"
"the absolute level of turnout is irrelevant the key question is will there be differential turnout among Remain v Leave"
"leave have never really forced remain to defend position. Leave don't seem to have thought through need for credibility"
"research suggests minority ethnic Britons a bit more likely to vote to Remain in EU"
"Northern Ireland is about 2:1 in favour of remaining. Cd be interesting if UK stays bc of N Ireland & Scotland"
"here's a tip. If Oxford votes Leave we are out. If Tendring votes Remain we are staying"0 -
The 50:50 polling seems to help shift newspapers, fits in with media narratives, & keeps broadcasters full of excitement. Wasn't there a similar pattern with the last General Election?
If the outcome is close, some of the pollsters will be preening themselves, if not there will be inquests and gnashing of teeth. For some odd reason I had thought that Remain was more nailed on than 50:50 polling suggests.0 -
0
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Don't be an idiot. Mike talked and linked to the poll at the top of the piece.Estobar said:
A footnote after a page and not one single mention of which poll it was (or at best a non sequitur), nor the details. Not bad for a betting site.TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed this bitEstobar said:By the way TSE, I thought the last thread was someone blathering on about what old men get up to on Friday nights.
The latest poll sees IN and OUT level pegging following a 4% OUT lead in last week’s poll.
As I've said before, this site badly needs an editor to cut back the verbosity from thread writers.
If you don't like it here, ask Mike for a refund.0 -
As in, we could be like Albania.MarqueeMark said:"Could" here being used in the Leave sense of a realistic possibility
We could be like Canada. I mean trade with Canada. I mean FCK OFF Canada.0 -
We "could" be £4,300 worse off if we REMAIN. Or was it LEAVE?Scott_P said:
As in, we could be like Albania.MarqueeMark said:"Could" here being used in the Leave sense of a realistic possibility
We could be like Canada. I mean trade with Canada. I mean FCK OFF Canada.0 -
In the last few minutes Leave has gone from 5 to 5.5 on Betfair.0
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Just to add to my previous post, it's worth remind ourselves of how UKIP did in each region at the Euro elections as a proxy for how likely each region is to vote leave:GarethoftheVale2 said:
That's actually pretty good for Leave. Bearing in mind how poor UKIP does in London, I would have expected 70-30 RemainTheScreamingEagles said:London is overwhelmingly backing a vote to Remain in the European Union, a major opinion poll reveals today.
The capital is a clear 60-40 in favour of staying in Europe’s family of 28 nations, discounting don’t knows.
Exclusive research by Opinium for the Evening Standard reveals the 5.6 million eligible voters in London are far more pro-EU than the rest of the country.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/eu-referendum-london-backs-remain-vote-poll-shows-a3256001.html
Eastern - 35%
E Mids - 33%
SE - 32%
SW - 32%
W Mids - 32%
Yorks - 31%
NE - 29%
NW - 28%
Wales - 28%
London - 17%
Scotland - 11%
Even if remain win 55-45 I would expect to see leave take a lot of council areas, maybe even enough to have the majority of the land area (rather than the population) coloured in on the map in the leave colour (green?)0 -
Certainly will. (As he's come out as a Remainer, I hope he isn't holding a Ministerial IOU from Osborne!)Pulpstar said:
Let me know if you find out who Kevin will be "lending his support to" (When the time comes). Probably the winner of the contest tbh.MarqueeMark said:0 -
No he didn't and don't call me an idiot, thanks. You may not like what I said, which is fine. The place is good despite, not because of, the thread writers. You all need a bloody good editor to cut your words to 25% of the current crap. You'd be better for it, trust me.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't be an idiot. Mike talked and linked to the poll at the top of the piece.Estobar said:
A footnote after a page and not one single mention of which poll it was (or at best a non sequitur), nor the details. Not bad for a betting site.TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed this bitEstobar said:By the way TSE, I thought the last thread was someone blathering on about what old men get up to on Friday nights.
The latest poll sees IN and OUT level pegging following a 4% OUT lead in last week’s poll.
As I've said before, this site badly needs an editor to cut back the verbosity from thread writers.
If you don't like it here, ask Mike for a refund.0 -
Too long.Wanderer said:In the last few minutes Leave has gone from 5 to 5.5 on Betfair.
But the best time to bet on Leave may be in the last few hours.0 -
Probably a bit dim. Brexiteers can safely ignore...
@owenbarder: The claim that @TheIFS sells their opinions to the highest bidder reveals how detached from reality #Brexit supporter have become.
Oops
@MrHarryCole: Well that didn't take long. https://t.co/9DsTttjWx20 -
Bill Paxton in Aliens: "How do I get out of this chicken-shit outfit?"TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't be an idiot. Mike talked and linked to the poll at the top of the piece.Estobar said:
A footnote after a page and not one single mention of which poll it was (or at best a non sequitur), nor the details. Not bad for a betting site.TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed this bitEstobar said:By the way TSE, I thought the last thread was someone blathering on about what old men get up to on Friday nights.
The latest poll sees IN and OUT level pegging following a 4% OUT lead in last week’s poll.
As I've said before, this site badly needs an editor to cut back the verbosity from thread writers.
If you don't like it here, ask Mike for a refund. 0 -
As the "Blessed Margaret" would say Stewart Jackson was never "one of us".FrankBooth said:Hey, I don't agree with Stewart on many things but he used to be one of us don't forget.
0 -
As long as you ask him nicely, Mike has been known to give back double your joining fee....TheScreamingEagles said:
If you don't like it here, ask Mike for a refund.Estobar said:
A footnote after a page and not one single mention of which poll it was (or at best a non sequitur), nor the details. Not bad for a betting site.TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed this bitEstobar said:By the way TSE, I thought the last thread was someone blathering on about what old men get up to on Friday nights.
The latest poll sees IN and OUT level pegging following a 4% OUT lead in last week’s poll.
As I've said before, this site badly needs an editor to cut back the verbosity from thread writers.
0 -
@BBCNormanS: @TheIFS is "the gold standard" of independent and impartial forecasting says PM
Quite astonishing how Brexiteers have managed to take a report that is not entirely helpful to their cause, and turn it into a major story about how paranoid and inconsistent they are.
Such epic incompetence is surely to be admired and applauded0 -
We'd all be at least £4,300 worse off if we'd followed Sunil's ELBOW ....Sunil_Prasannan said:We "could" be £4,300 worse off if we REMAIN. Or was it LEAVE?
0 -
Some truth in that. I think pb'ers would do a better job of running Vote Leave than Vote Leave.TheScreamingEagles said:Professor Curtice has been giving his thoughts
"Apart from one point we have always had Remain ahead on average. This is a race that has been remarkably stable"
"The internet polls have been very consistent, on average saying 50-50"
"now getting more phone polls that put Remain ahead but cannot assume this is real change bc of phone/online differences"
"on average since April Remain has increased by only 1 point, quite different to media coverage"
"Have Tory supporters moved? I took all polls April-May. 2015 Con voter support for Remain +5 pts.. perhaps!"
"Labour voters not moved at all. 70-30 for Remain in April and that is still the case"
"Age gap still looks v similar. Majority of 1975 voters are for Brexit contrary to the recent Telegraph front page"
"don't knows in EU ref, when squeezed, more likely to back Remain but that is often already factored in"
"the absolute level of turnout is irrelevant the key question is will there be differential turnout among Remain v Leave"
"leave have never really forced remain to defend position. Leave don't seem to have thought through need for credibility"
"research suggests minority ethnic Britons a bit more likely to vote to Remain in EU"
"Northern Ireland is about 2:1 in favour of remaining. Cd be interesting if UK stays bc of N Ireland & Scotland"
"here's a tip. If Oxford votes Leave we are out. If Tendring votes Remain we are staying"
A proper campaign could have seen Leave ahead by 5-10% by now.
This referendum is quite winnable. If done properly.0 -
LEAVE = UK a Green and Pleasant LandGarethoftheVale2 said:
.... coloured in on the map in the leave colour (green?)GarethoftheVale2 said:
That's actually pretty good for Leave. Bearing in mind how poor UKIP does in London, I would have expected 70-30 RemainTheScreamingEagles said:London is overwhelmingly backing a vote to Remain in the European Union, a major opinion poll reveals today.
The capital is a clear 60-40 in favour of staying in Europe’s family of 28 nations, discounting don’t knows.
Exclusive research by Opinium for the Evening Standard reveals the 5.6 million eligible voters in London are far more pro-EU than the rest of the country.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/eu-referendum-london-backs-remain-vote-poll-shows-a3256001.html
REMAIN = UK a Grey, unpleasant land....
0 -
" Says PM " who nobody trusts.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: @TheIFS is "the gold standard" of independent and impartial forecasting says PM
Quite astonishing how Brexiteers have managed to take a report that is not entirely helpful to their cause, and turn it into a major story about how paranoid and inconsistent they are.
Such epic incompetence is surely to be admired and applauded0 -
Mr. Royale, I quite agree.
Incidentally, Kinnock's piece is actually an endorsement of the boiled frog doctrine.0 -
Not really fussed as long as they feed it enough fish.JackW said:
As a Scottish PBer discussing precedence what is your view on the place of the Keeper of the Great Seal of Scotland?Theuniondivvie said:
Precedence suggests that purdah is no obstacle to the unleashing of 'Vow II, this time we really mean it'.
Boom tish, here all week, I'll get my sealskin coat etc.0 -
And who knows how much better off if the ARSE had been Marquee Markedly more bullish on SNP seats and bearish on LibDems...JackW said:
We'd all be at least £4,300 worse off if we'd followed Sunil's ELBOW ....Sunil_Prasannan said:We "could" be £4,300 worse off if we REMAIN. Or was it LEAVE?
0 -
'Renegotiation II, this time we will really mean it'Luckyguy1983 said:
What would Vow 2 consist of?Theuniondivvie said:
Precedence suggests that purdah is no obstacle to the unleashing of 'Vow II, this time we really mean it'.MarqueeMark said:
And the start of purdah. Level playing field kicks in. No more robbing the taxpayers to try and convince the, er, taxpayer of the merits of the EU.rottenborough said:
Punters not believing the polls? Plus signs of major Remain complacency.TheScreamingEagles said:0
