Leave playing the Army brass card today - most amusingly, Sir Michael Rose is leading the charge.
"Britain's Armed Forces would be more effective outside the European Union, 12 former generals and admirals claim today...The retired senior military officers are backing Veterans for Britain, a campaign for a Leave vote in the EU referendum aimed at serving and former military personnel.
They reject the idea that a Brexit would have a negative impact on the UK's defence and security, saying that Nato is responsible for peace across Europe... [Rose] comments will humiliate the Prime Minister because Sir Michael's name was 'mistakenly' added to a letter orchestrated by Downing Street earlier this year which promoted the EU.
In an individual statement, he says today: 'Sovereignty and defence are indivisible. European law, in my view, has already seriously undermined UK's combat effectiveness as a result of the intrusion of European law into national law. And today, our servicemen and women are in danger of becoming no more than civilians in uniform.'
Well @Plato, me old darlin' let me tell you that under a federal EU Britain (so named) won't be allowed a separate standing armed forces. The British Army will just be a couple of divisions inside an EU wide army. Probably taking orders from German or Benelux generals who have no experience of actual battle since WW2, too.
@GregHands: IFS today saying a vote to leave could result in up to a 40bn hit to the public finances in 2019/20 - almost the size of the defence budget.
Leave playing the Army brass card today - most amusingly, Sir Michael Rose is leading the charge.
"Britain's Armed Forces would be more effective outside the European Union, 12 former generals and admirals claim today...The retired senior military officers are backing Veterans for Britain, a campaign for a Leave vote in the EU referendum aimed at serving and former military personnel.
They reject the idea that a Brexit would have a negative impact on the UK's defence and security, saying that Nato is responsible for peace across Europe... [Rose] comments will humiliate the Prime Minister because Sir Michael's name was 'mistakenly' added to a letter orchestrated by Downing Street earlier this year which promoted the EU.
In an individual statement, he says today: 'Sovereignty and defence are indivisible. European law, in my view, has already seriously undermined UK's combat effectiveness as a result of the intrusion of European law into national law. And today, our servicemen and women are in danger of becoming no more than civilians in uniform.'
Well @Plato, me old darlin' let me tell you that under a federal EU Britain (so named) won't be allowed a separate standing armed forces. The British Army will just be a couple of divisions inside an EU wide army. Probably taking orders from German or Benelux generals who have no experience of actual battle since WW2, too.
I think they're doing away with the term "Britain".
For those who puzzled over the meaning on the previous thread of SWAG, it stands for - Scientific Wild Ass Guess.
I just watched highlights of Trump's speech in New Mexico, and we have a new nickname. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who hugely bigged up her alleged Cherokee Indian heritage until it was recently debunked, is now being called Pocahontas by Trump.
That will stick.
He's just brilliant at this name tag thing. It really shapes the debate for him.
@GregHands: IFS today saying a vote to leave could result in up to a 40bn hit to the public finances in 2019/20 - almost the size of the defence budget.
"Could".
More scaremongering bollocks.
EU sponsored IFS talking Britain down again. Craven stuff.
You should've trust anything anyone says unconditionally! I suspect Remain will find their own set of army officers next week, just as Leave found their own economists and business people.
Leave have the Lord High Constable of England on their side.. they don't need no army officers
And the Lord High Chancellor, don't forget him!
I believe the Earl Marischal is also in favour of Leave.
edit: the Lord High Admiral hasn't declared for either side, but I have a sneaking suspicion...
Just because a bunch of nobs hanker for Ye Grand olde Days of Empire doesn't necessarily make them right Charles
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 8s8 seconds ago Interesting that @nicholaswatt seems to think that turnout is forecast as low in the referendum. Betting markets now at 63.5% and rising
At this stage of last year's GE - the 10/10 indicator with ICM and Comres was within 2% of final turnout.
Also, Shadsy's comment about more money going on Leave probably reflects the growing doubts about telephone polling.
I still remember them lambasting an early Osborne Budget for being regressive. Which might be legitimate criticism, except their reasoning was that he anticipated cutting welfare spending. Because more people would be in work and off benefits...
Mr. Borough, might Crabb lack experience? I know he's the new DWP chap, but he only got the job recently.
Leave playing the Army brass card today - most amusingly, Sir Michael Rose is leading the charge.
"Britain's Armed Forces would be more effective outside the European Union, 12 former generals and admirals claim today...The retired senior military officers are backing Veterans for Britain, a campaign for a Leave vote in the EU referendum aimed at serving and former military personnel.
They reject the idea that a Brexit would have a negative impact on the UK's defence and security, saying that Nato is responsible for peace across Europe... [Rose] comments will humiliate the Prime Minister because Sir Michael's name was 'mistakenly' added to a letter orchestrated by Downing Street earlier this year which promoted the EU.
In an individual statement, he says today: 'Sovereignty and defence are indivisible. European law, in my view, has already seriously undermined UK's combat effectiveness as a result of the intrusion of European law into national law. And today, our servicemen and women are in danger of becoming no more than civilians in uniform.'
Well @Plato, me old darlin' let me tell you that under a federal EU Britain (so named) won't be allowed a separate standing armed forces. The British Army will just be a couple of divisions inside an EU wide army. Probably taking orders from German or Benelux generals who have no experience of actual battle since WW2, too.
I think they're doing away with the term "Britain".
You should've trust anything anyone says unconditionally! I suspect Remain will find their own set of army officers next week, just as Leave found their own economists and business people.
Leave have the Lord High Constable of England on their side.. they don't need no army officers
And the Lord High Chancellor, don't forget him!
I believe the Earl Marischal is also in favour of Leave.
edit: the Lord High Admiral hasn't declared for either side, but I have a sneaking suspicion...
Just because a bunch of nobs hanker for Ye Grand olde Days of Empire doesn't necessarily make them right Charles
For those who puzzled over the meaning on the previous thread of SWAG, it stands for - Scientific Wild Ass Guess.
I just watched highlights of Trump's speech in New Mexico, and we have a new nickname. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who hugely bigged up her alleged Cherokee Indian heritage until it was recently debunked, is now being called Pocahontas by Trump.
That will stick.
He's just brilliant at this name tag thing. It really shapes the debate for him.
Just read a Times report that Team Hillary are considering Dangerous Donald and Loser. One clearly isn't true, the other has far too many syllables and reminds me of Cameron as Gene Hunt.
Before I go, I must tell you of a minor coup I achieved yesterday, because for me they come few and far between.
I bet on 3 cross EW doubles and a treble yesterday and they all came home @ 11/1, 8/1 and 7/2. But I only had £2 EW on every double and the treble. Still not bad.
Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
it is Remain, odds on favourites since the start, who are panicking.
Whistle to keep your spirits up
It's not Remain who have abandoned their entire economic message to focus exclusively on racism immigration
ROFL
most pathetic post of the morning
I suppose it will be jackboots and the KKK in Lederhosen by lunchtime
so this post is now Tory racist bastards ?
LOL keep em coming, nobody makes the Tories seem more shit than you do.
So many things have been said by Tories about each other which cannot be unsaid, when this is over.
It doesn't appear to have occurred to them.
You have wonder just how stupid this can get.
The sledging on here by a small number of Tories has been remarkable. I just scroll by them now. I'm not sure what point they're trying to prove. It wasn't this bad before GE2015 with Tory vs Labour.
On day one of marketing communication I was taught never slag your competitors off becasue soon that will become the industry you work in and eventually yourself.
Absolutely. In a huge row with our main competitor all the young'uns had hatched lots of noisy, devious plans to shame and embarrass the opposition.
The head of the company shut it all down.
'Two whores brawling in public will do none of us any good'......
I've watched the Remain youth video. Oh dear me. It reminds me of a tampon advert - with lots of young women doing active stuff like surfin', chillin' and clubbin'. Cos they like votin' and livin' in the EU.
Is there anything worse than politicians trying to be hip?
Leave playing the Army brass card today - most amusingly, Sir Michael Rose is leading the charge.
"Britain's Armed Forces would be more effective outside the European Union, 12 former generals and admirals claim today...The retired senior military officers are backing Veterans for Britain, a campaign for a Leave vote in the EU referendum aimed at serving and former military personnel.
They reject the idea that a Brexit would have a negative impact on the UK's defence and security, saying that Nato is responsible for peace across Europe... [Rose] comments will humiliate the Prime Minister because Sir Michael's name was 'mistakenly' added to a letter orchestrated by Downing Street earlier this year which promoted the EU.
In an individual statement, he says today: 'Sovereignty and defence are indivisible. European law, in my view, has already seriously undermined UK's combat effectiveness as a result of the intrusion of European law into national law. And today, our servicemen and women are in danger of becoming no more than civilians in uniform.'
Well @Plato, me old darlin' let me tell you that under a federal EU Britain (so named) won't be allowed a separate standing armed forces. The British Army will just be a couple of divisions inside an EU wide army. Probably taking orders from German or Benelux generals who have no experience of actual battle since WW2, too.
I think they're doing away with the term "Britain".
Miss Plato, leaving the EU will cause menstrual cycles to happen twice as often. Men will start ovulating in the street. Alien probing will leave millions with xenobabies.
Edited extra bit: added an S. I'm given to understand the menstrual cycle occurs more than once...
it is Remain, odds on favourites since the start, who are panicking.
Whistle to keep your spirits up
It's not Remain who have abandoned their entire economic message to focus exclusively on racism immigration
ROFL
most pathetic post of the morning
I suppose it will be jackboots and the KKK in Lederhosen by lunchtime
so this post is now Tory racist bastards ?
LOL keep em coming, nobody makes the Tories seem more shit than you do.
So many things have been said by Tories about each other which cannot be unsaid, when this is over.
It doesn't appear to have occurred to them.
You have wonder just how stupid this can get.
The sledging on here by a small number of Tories has been remarkable. I just scroll by them now. I'm not sure what point they're trying to prove. It wasn't this bad before GE2015 with Tory vs Labour.
On day one of marketing communication I was taught never slag your competitors off becasue soon that will become the industry you work in and eventually yourself.
Absolutely. In a huge row with our main competitor all the young'uns had hatched lots of noisy, devious plans to shame and embarrass the opposition.
The head of the company shut it all down.
'Two whores brawling in public will do none of us any good'......
You should've trust anything anyone says unconditionally! I suspect Remain will find their own set of army officers next week, just as Leave found their own economists and business people.
Leave have the Lord High Constable of England on their side.. they don't need no army officers
And the Lord High Chancellor, don't forget him!
I believe the Earl Marischal is also in favour of Leave.
edit: the Lord High Admiral hasn't declared for either side, but I have a sneaking suspicion...
Just because a bunch of nobs hanker for Ye Grand olde Days of Empire doesn't necessarily make them right Charles
Well Michael Gove is the Lord High Chancellor.
Fitzallen-Howard will carry Norfolk with him and make inroads into the Catholic community.
I don't think that the Duke of Edinburgh has declared though...
@jameskirkup: Most Tories aren't at war over #Brexit.
Indeed not. Most of them are united in supporting Brexit
YouGov in Times have 2015 Tories at 65% Leave.
That can't be true.
We've had a thread on one poll that had the Tories breaking for Remain and no correction
Polling suggests that 10-15% of Tories from 2015 have switched to UKIP. They will be almost all supporters of Brexit, leaving current Tories relatively more likely to support Remain.
it is Remain, odds on favourites since the start, who are panicking.
Whistle to keep your spirits up
It's not Remain who have abandoned their entire economic message to focus exclusively on racism immigration
ROFL
most pathetic post of the morning
I suppose it will be jackboots and the KKK in Lederhosen by lunchtime
so this post is now Tory racist bastards ?
LOL keep em coming, nobody makes the Tories seem more shit than you do.
So many things have been said by Tories about each other which cannot be unsaid, when this is over.
It doesn't appear to have occurred to them.
You have wonder just how stupid this can get.
The sledging on here by a small number of Tories has been remarkable. I just scroll by them now. I'm not sure what point they're trying to prove. It wasn't this bad before GE2015 with Tory vs Labour.
On day one of marketing communication I was taught never slag your competitors off becasue soon that will become the industry you work in and eventually yourself.
Absolutely. In a huge row with our main competitor all the young'uns had hatched lots of noisy, devious plans to shame and embarrass the opposition.
The head of the company shut it all down.
'Two whores brawling in public will do none of us any good'......
Just watched some blatant bias from BBC breakfast. Talking about subsidies for industry and the whole segment was based on 'We get this money from the EU and it's really helpful but they (leave) want to take it away'. This despite the previous section explaining how we are net contributors overall.
Yes, she's good. But Osborne hates her, which is why her career has been held back so far (she rejected his patronage early on). But do we really want a former compliance officer in charge...
As an aside, I caught up with a board director of one of the credit rating agencies yesterday (we were going the same way on the tube). Never come across someone so terrified about Brexit. He's worried that his kids - who are completely integrated into Europe-wide businesses - just don't seem to be too bothered to vote.
He's also picking up signs that the "old landed families" are coming out for Leave (in his view based on some romantic notion of a glorious past - he doesn't think that the Brits are natural entrepreneurs any way).
But he also mentioned that if we engaged fully in Europe we'd get a lot - Germany needs us to see off the French. But with the half-in-half-out approach we just p1ss everyone off.
(p.s. another patrimonial came out yesterday for Leave. That means that Devon and Hampshire and the working family are all for Leave; Paris for Remain [but they don't have a vote, only the right to make observations] only Wiltshire to come. They've been quiet on the matter, but I wouldn't be surprised if they backed Leave in the end)
Charles: a female compliance officer - or, even better, a fearsome female lawyer/investigator - is exactly whom we should have in charge.
As a fellow Warwick graduate I wish Andrea Leadsom well and if it is Leave she could have a chance but I am sticking to a narrow Remain and Philip Hammond
Miss Plato, leaving the EU will cause menstrual cycles to happen twice as often. Men will start ovulating in the street. Alien probing will leave millions with xenobabies.
Edited extra bit: added an S. I'm given to understand the menstrual cycle occurs more than once...
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 8s8 seconds ago Interesting that @nicholaswatt seems to think that turnout is forecast as low in the referendum. Betting markets now at 63.5% and rising
At this stage of last year's GE - the 10/10 indicator with ICM and Comres was within 2% of final turnout.
Also, Shadsy's comment about more money going on Leave probably reflects the growing doubts about telephone polling.
I'm not betting on turnout.
I simply have no idea. Between 50% and 65% is as good as I can say.
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 8s8 seconds ago Interesting that @nicholaswatt seems to think that turnout is forecast as low in the referendum. Betting markets now at 63.5% and rising
Shadsy's comment about more money going on Leave probably reflects the growing doubts about telephone polling.
Ladbrokes might be taking more and bigger bets on leave, but even more money is piling onto remain.
Probably >5x as much if the odds, and the odds changes are anything to go by.
That's the Andrea Ledsom whose first question after being appointed minister for energy and climate change was "Is climate change real?" despite having spent years previously campaigning against onshore windfarms. So she clearly has the ability to argue confidently on a subject in which she is completely clueless. Is this a good trait for a future leader?
My word completion app keeps substituting Angela for Andrea which is my excuse for getting her name wrong when I first published. That's now been fixed. Thanks to those who pointed out the error
A little-known European Directive requires all word completion apps to complete any word beginning with An with -gela. It's all about being good neighbours, y'know.
My word completion app keeps substituting Angela for Andrea which is my excuse for getting her name wrong when I first published. That's now been fixed. Thanks to those who pointed out the error
A little-known European Directive requires all word completion apps to complete any word beginning with An with -gela. It's all about being good neighbours, y'know.
Good to see someone on the remain side still has a sense of humour.
@DAaronovitch: Now Leave insults the Institute for Fiscal Studies for warning about the economic effects of Brexit. Note, it doesn't disagree, it insults.
@PickardJE: Out campaign is undermining their own credibility by dismissing the highly respected, neutral IFS as stooges of Brussels.
If Leave is the obvious, logical, Patriotic choice, why are they running such a completely shit campaign?
If Remain were 20 points clear your post would have some veracity, they're not, so it doesn't. In fact its the reverse, it is Remain, odds on favourites since the start, who are panicking.
REMAIN is 20% ahead with some pollsters
Well, somebody somewhere has seriously fucked up their polling....
That's the Andrea Ledsom whose first question after being appointed minister for energy and climate change was "Is climate change real?" despite having spent years previously campaigning against onshore windfarms. So she clearly has the ability to argue confidently on a subject in which she is completely clueless. Is this a good trait for a future leader?
Mr. Mark, worth noting there's always a chance of poll just being rogue.
In psychometric testing a p value of 0.95 is the target, which means there's a 5% chance of any given response just being an unrepresentative individual/group.
With the number of polls we've got, some will just be rogue.
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.
Mr. Mark, worth noting there's always a chance of poll just being rogue.
In psychometric testing a p value of 0.95 is the target, which means there's a 5% chance of any given response just being an unrepresentative individual/group.
With the number of polls we've got, some will just be rogue.
Don't we normally assume 1:20 is rogue. Until the result, we've no idea if any were near the mark - or a lucky guess on the day. ICM's 14pt variance phone vs online was the most telling.
Mr. Mark, worth noting there's always a chance of poll just being rogue.
In psychometric testing a p value of 0.95 is the target, which means there's a 5% chance of any given response just being an unrepresentative individual/group.
With the number of polls we've got, some will just be rogue.
Don't we normally assume 1:20 is rogue. Until the result, we've no idea if any were near the mark - or a lucky guess on the day. ICM's 14pt variance phone vs online was the most telling.
That variance is replicated with ORB as well who will have to explain to either the Telegraph or the Independent why they have sold one of them a dud polling method in a month's time.
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.
Do you really need a statistician to state the bleedin' obvious? Mind, it also says something about the officers who produced the original opinion.
Who was it who said “Mititary Intelligence is a contradiction!"
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.
That story and similar ones is in an entertaining book I read recently called the mathematics of every day life. It had a sub title of how not to be wrong but I think that bit was a little oversold on my experience.
Have been really let-down by all the latest outpourings from your ARSE!
The stench of defeat is in the air for LEAVE and it's not good enough!
Those sniffing around my ARSE for fragrant outpourings for LEAVE have indeed been gravely disappointed. The sweet smell of Spring is in the air and will likely REMAIN so.
LOL at the IFS bring added to the list of EU stooges!
No, they're controlled by the Bildeberg Group.
I thought it was the Reptilian Aryans?
As an aside, the IFS was created by my old boss (Nils Taube) to provide a job for Dick Taverne, after he lost the seat of Lincoln. Dick Taverne went on to write a pretty good book about the lack of respect for the scientific method by our politicians (and the media): The March of Unreason.
The mechanical effect of leaving the EU would be to improve the UK’s public finances by in the order of £8 billion – assuming the UK did not subsequently sign up to EEA or an alternative EU trade deal that involved contributions to the EU budget. However, there is an overwhelming consensus among those who have made estimates of the consequences of Brexit for national income that it would reduce national income in both the short and long runs. The economic reasons for this – increased uncertainty, higher costs of trade and reduced FDI – are clear. The only significant exception to this consensus is ‘Economists for Brexit’.
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.
Do you really need a statistician to state the bleedin' obvious? Mind, it also says something about the officers who produced the original opinion.
Who was it who said “Mititary Intelligence is a contradiction!"
Lloyd George's War Memoirs contain an item in the Index "Military Mind; narrowness of, regards thinking as a form of mutiny."
That's the Andrea Ledsom whose first question after being appointed minister for energy and climate change was "Is climate change real?" despite having spent years previously campaigning against onshore windfarms. So she clearly has the ability to argue confidently on a subject in which she is completely clueless. Is this a good trait for a future leader?
It's about all the past 3 PM's have had going for them.
Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit. And I think the idea of a poster with merkel and Cameron in her top pocket would be brilliant.
"Some Downing Street aides these days resemble British riflemen at Rorke’s Drift, crouched behind makeshift barricades and waiting for an assault by massed ranks of Conservative Eurosceptics driven to fury over the referendum and planning to overrun the leadership after the vote.
This fear helps explain why No 10 is prosecuting the referendum campaign with such aggression. Some of David Cameron’s team think mere victory is not enough: they must win in such a manner as to destroy those who oppose them, and thus render them unable to threaten the PM after the vote. The approach calls to mind Gore Vidal: “It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.”
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.
Good story, except e.g. later Spitfires (& many other WWII fighters I expect) had most of their armour round the pilot & self-sealing fuel tanks. An aircraft with a bullet riddled or incinerated pilot was just as unlikely to return to base as one with a riddled engine, with the added disadvantage of a probably dead, expensively trained pilot.
As an aside, the IFS was created by my old boss (Nils Taube) to provide a job for Dick Taverne, after he lost the seat of Lincoln. Dick Taverne went on to write a pretty good book about the lack of respect for the scientific method by our politicians (and the media): The March of Unreason.
Robert if you can wrench yourself away from your duties at Finchley Road might you gives us your appreciation of the IFS report?
Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit. And I think the idea of a poster with merkel and Cameron in her top pocket would be brilliant.
Vote Leave are in no position to freeze anything, temporary or otherwise.
The mechanical effect of leaving the EU would be to improve the UK’s public finances by in the order of £8 billion – assuming the UK did not subsequently sign up to EEA or an alternative EU trade deal that involved contributions to the EU budget. However, there is an overwhelming consensus among those who have made estimates of the consequences of Brexit for national income that it would reduce national income in both the short and long runs. The economic reasons for this – increased uncertainty, higher costs of trade and reduced FDI – are clear. The only significant exception to this consensus is ‘Economists for Brexit’.
Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit.
If they did that I would vote remain in a heartbeat. Right now significant parts of that budget is being spent on refugee camps which is not only the moral thing to do but keeps them in the near abroad of Syria rather than here.
Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit. And I think the idea of a poster with merkel and Cameron in her top pocket would be brilliant.
Vote Leave are in no position to freeze anything, temporary or otherwise.
But they’ll create darkness at noon if they win. Cameron says so (must have, somewhere)
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.
Good story, except e.g. later Spitfires (& many other WWII fighters I expect) had most of their armour round the pilot & the fuel tanks. An aircraft with a bullet riddled or incinerated pilot was just as unlikely to return to base as one with a riddled engine, with the added disadvantage of a probably dead, expensively trained pilot.
Can any PB polling experts explain to me in broad terms how weighting works - sorry for being a polling dunce. I understand that people are weighted according to likelihood to vote, and it deals with certain groups being overrepresented in the sample etc. But I don't understand how its application affects the final numbers. Are some people just removed from the survey?
Paul Johnson, the IFS director, has admitted 10 per cent of the body’s funding comes from the EU but said the money had no “impact” on its forecasts for what happened after Brexit."
Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit.
If they did that I would vote remain in a heartbeat. Right now significant parts of that budget is being spent on refugee camps which is not only the moral thing to do but keeps them in the near abroad of Syria rather than here.
Yes, aside from the moral aspect, the foreign aid budget is the carrot that accompanies our military stick. In fact, you could argue that foreign aid should be considered to be a component of our defence spending.
Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit. And I think the idea of a poster with merkel and Cameron in her top pocket would be brilliant.
Vote Leave are in no position to freeze anything, temporary or otherwise.
But it is a sensible conflation: aid to foreigners...foreigners coming over here taking all the £250/hour plumbing jobs...etc...
Edit: and I suppose it is only a matter of time (or have they done so already) before someone blames the EU for the 0.7%, largest in the G7..
As an aside, the IFS was created by my old boss (Nils Taube) to provide a job for Dick Taverne, after he lost the seat of Lincoln. Dick Taverne went on to write a pretty good book about the lack of respect for the scientific method by our politicians (and the media): The March of Unreason.
Robert if you can wrench yourself away from your duties at Finchley Road might you gives us your appreciation of the IFS report?
To be honest, I haven't read it. I'm spending my morning reading about proposed changes to the Italian bankruptcy laws... And what that might mean (or otherwise) for NPLs.
Can any PB polling experts explain to me in broad terms how weighting works - sorry for being a polling dunce. I understand that people are weighted according to likelihood to vote, and it deals with certain groups being overrepresented in the sample etc. But I don't understand how its application affects the final numbers. Are some people just removed from the survey?
Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit. And I think the idea of a poster with merkel and Cameron in her top pocket would be brilliant.
Vote Leave are in no position to freeze anything, temporary or otherwise.
They are in a position to point out that:
a) The money is there and it is plentiful; b) The government have the power to allocate it;
What kind of government would refuse to use it for it's own people in a doom-laden scenario?
How much do we want to bet on a unified message being given by *all* G7 leaders warning against Brexit on the steps of the conference, that'll receive frontline billing on BBC TV and on its news website?
"Some Downing Street aides these days resemble British riflemen at Rorke’s Drift, crouched behind makeshift barricades and waiting for an assault by massed ranks of Conservative Eurosceptics driven to fury over the referendum and planning to overrun the leadership after the vote.
This fear helps explain why No 10 is prosecuting the referendum campaign with such aggression. Some of David Cameron’s team think mere victory is not enough: they must win in such a manner as to destroy those who oppose them, and thus render them unable to threaten the PM after the vote. The approach calls to mind Gore Vidal: “It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.”
There is also a simpler - and equally plausible - explanation: that a convincing Remain win is needed if the issue is to be closed down. A narrow Remain win is possibly the worst result, and not just from a Tory party perspective.
The reason this debate (sic) has become so bitchy and personal is that it feels like a debate about the future of the Tory party rather than a debate about Britain and the EU. A great pity. I have read more illuminating comments about the EU from @rcs100 or @CasinoRoyale (on his blog) or @Topping than anything I've heard from either the Remain or Leave camps.
For the amount of money which has been spent it should have been possible to get some decent psychiatrists and group therapists and the rest of us could have been left alone.
Either that or a proper debate.....
I must go now: I can hear porkers preparing for take-off.........
Unrelated to the topic, and procrastinating a little [bit sleepy so work's slow], but it'll be interesting to see what comes out at E3 this year. Some reckon Elder Scrolls VI (I'd be very surprised given Fallout 4 was just last year), and 'Dragon Age 4' [though whether that means Tactics or an RPG isn't certain].
There's also the new consoles from PlayStation/Xbox. Nintendo doesn't really do E3, but the NX will be announced in the nearish future, I'd guess.
Paul Johnson, the IFS director, has admitted 10 per cent of the body’s funding comes from the EU but said the money had no “impact” on its forecasts for what happened after Brexit."
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.
Good story, except e.g. later Spitfires (& many other WWII fighters I expect) had most of their armour round the pilot & the fuel tanks. An aircraft with a bullet riddled or incinerated pilot was just as unlikely to return to base as one with a riddled engine, with the added disadvantage of a probably dead, expensively trained pilot.
It was USAF bombers - bigger fuselage and engines
Hmm, on a cost/benefit/performance analysis, putting heavy engine armour on a 4 engined bomber seems even less effective than on a single engine fighter. The B-17 could certainly fly on 2 engines if necessary.
Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit.
If they did that I would vote remain in a heartbeat. Right now significant parts of that budget is being spent on refugee camps which is not only the moral thing to do but keeps them in the near abroad of Syria rather than here.
Yes, aside from the moral aspect, the foreign aid budget is the carrot that accompanies our military stick. In fact, you could argue that foreign aid should be considered to be a component of our defence spending.
I believe it used to be part of the Foreign Office, and perhaps should still be. I don't think it's defence so much as diplomacy though.
The issue I have with Foreign Aid, like the NHS, is confusing input (of cash) with output. What the vast flow of budget has in fact lead to is a department that is full of waste and overspending. New iPads don't help any hungry kids.
Paul Johnson, the IFS director, has admitted 10 per cent of the body’s funding comes from the EU but said the money had no “impact” on its forecasts for what happened after Brexit."
Of course not.
Well that's all right then.
Perhaps you should listen to Brexiter in Chief Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico: The IFS - for whom I used to work - is not a paid up propaganda arm of the EU. I hope that clears that up.
Comments
Interesting tip. Hmm. I put a little on it, but would she even stand?
More scaremongering bollocks.
They are just going to use "Outpost 28".
So you are, in short, a bit of a dick.
But that's ok - I'm sure you have some fans.
Somewhere.
Of course if members wish to cheer themselves up, they could always buy a cracking comedy for under £3:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Edric-Hero-Hornska-Book-ebook/dp/B01DOSP9ZK
[/subtlety]
Blimey, Mike's right. It's getting tetchy on here.
To distract, anybody else got money on Crabb as next leader?
Also, Shadsy's comment about more money going on Leave probably reflects the growing doubts about telephone polling.
I still remember them lambasting an early Osborne Budget for being regressive. Which might be legitimate criticism, except their reasoning was that he anticipated cutting welfare spending. Because more people would be in work and off benefits...
Mr. Borough, might Crabb lack experience? I know he's the new DWP chap, but he only got the job recently.
Nice thought but the LEAVErs are more akin to Momentum... after all at least Cameron has (sort of) won two elections
Who are these muppets?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyTK2JLmwFE
I bet on 3 cross EW doubles and a treble yesterday and they all came home @ 11/1, 8/1 and 7/2. But I only had £2 EW on every double and the treble. Still not bad.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
The head of the company shut it all down.
'Two whores brawling in public will do none of us any good'......
We've had a thread on one poll that had the Tories breaking for Remain and no correction
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14513763.Rise_in_amount_Scots_drink_in_a_year_prompts_fresh_call_for_minimum_alcohol_pricing
Is there anything worse than politicians trying to be hip?
You can see it here http://votin.co.uk/
51 > 28... no contest
Have been really let-down by all the latest outpourings from your ARSE!
The stench of defeat is in the air for LEAVE and it's not good enough!
Edited extra bit: added an S. I'm given to understand the menstrual cycle occurs more than once...
Fitzallen-Howard will carry Norfolk with him and make inroads into the Catholic community.
I don't think that the Duke of Edinburgh has declared though...
I simply have no idea. Between 50% and 65% is as good as I can say.
Probably >5x as much if the odds, and the odds changes are anything to go by.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result/bet-history/leave/today
In psychometric testing a p value of 0.95 is the target, which means there's a 5% chance of any given response just being an unrepresentative individual/group.
With the number of polls we've got, some will just be rogue.
EDIT: Opinion pollsters are now trying to assess how it had fallen off their contact sheets for 75 years...
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/25/labour-answers-lie-in-losses-not-victories
And a fascinating nugget:
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.
Who was it who said “Mititary Intelligence is a contradiction!"
Do you trust them on Europe? Boris 31%, Corbyn 28, Farage 22, Cameron 18, Gove 16
Would you trust them as PM? Boris 31, Osborne 11.
As an aside, the IFS was created by my old boss (Nils Taube) to provide a job for Dick Taverne, after he lost the seat of Lincoln. Dick Taverne went on to write a pretty good book about the lack of respect for the scientific method by our politicians (and the media): The March of Unreason.
The mechanical effect of leaving the EU would be to improve the UK’s public finances by in the order of £8 billion – assuming the UK did not subsequently sign up to EEA or an alternative EU trade deal that involved contributions to the EU budget. However, there is an overwhelming consensus among those who have made estimates of the consequences of Brexit for national income that it would reduce national income in both the short and long runs. The economic reasons for this – increased uncertainty, higher costs of trade and reduced FDI – are clear. The only significant exception to this consensus is ‘Economists for Brexit’.
http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/comms/r116.pdf
"Some Downing Street aides these days resemble British riflemen at Rorke’s Drift, crouched behind makeshift barricades and waiting for an assault by massed ranks of Conservative Eurosceptics driven to fury over the referendum and planning to overrun the leadership after the vote.
This fear helps explain why No 10 is prosecuting the referendum campaign with such aggression. Some of David Cameron’s team think mere victory is not enough: they must win in such a manner as to destroy those who oppose them, and thus render them unable to threaten the PM after the vote. The approach calls to mind Gore Vidal: “It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/24/despite-david-camerons-paranoia-most-tories-dont-want-to-go-to-w/
Paul Johnson, the IFS director, has admitted 10 per cent of the body’s funding comes from the EU but said the money had no “impact” on its forecasts for what happened after Brexit."
Of course not.
Edit: and I suppose it is only a matter of time (or have they done so already) before someone blames the EU for the 0.7%, largest in the G7..
a) The money is there and it is plentiful;
b) The government have the power to allocate it;
What kind of government would refuse to use it for it's own people in a doom-laden scenario?
Honestly nobody to the right of Ed Miliband gives a toss.
How much do we want to bet on a unified message being given by *all* G7 leaders warning against Brexit on the steps of the conference, that'll receive frontline billing on BBC TV and on its news website?
Looking forward to that on Friday.
The reason this debate (sic) has become so bitchy and personal is that it feels like a debate about the future of the Tory party rather than a debate about Britain and the EU. A great pity. I have read more illuminating comments about the EU from @rcs100 or @CasinoRoyale (on his blog) or @Topping than anything I've heard from either the Remain or Leave camps.
For the amount of money which has been spent it should have been possible to get some decent psychiatrists and group therapists and the rest of us could have been left alone.
Either that or a proper debate.....
I must go now: I can hear porkers preparing for take-off.........
There's also the new consoles from PlayStation/Xbox. Nintendo doesn't really do E3, but the NX will be announced in the nearish future, I'd guess.
I put up a ramble about the new and improved Survival Mode in Fallout 4 here, for those interested: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/fallout-4s-survival-mode.html
The issue I have with Foreign Aid, like the NHS, is confusing input (of cash) with output. What the vast flow of budget has in fact lead to is a department that is full of waste and overspending. New iPads don't help any hungry kids.
@andrew_lilico: The IFS - for whom I used to work - is not a paid up propaganda arm of the EU. I hope that clears that up.