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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-Treasury minister & Brexiter, Angela Leadsom, is having
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-Treasury minister & Brexiter, Angela Leadsom, is having a good war and might be good long-shot for next CON leader
A new YouGov referendum poll published overnight has both sides level-pegging – a marked change from last week’s 4% REMAIN lead. It is a sharp reminder that this could be very close and reinforces the big polling story of this election – the huge divide between phone and online.
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ICYMI, her most recent article
http://www.cityam.com/241739/why-brexit-wont-be-a-disaster-and-as-former-city-minister-i-should-know
I just watched highlights of Trump's speech in New Mexico, and we have a new nickname. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who hugely bigged up her alleged Cherokee Indian heritage until it was recently debunked, is now being called Pocahontas by Trump.
That will stick.
And a final message to those who say we should stay in the EU and reform it from within. We tried; David Cameron tried; we did not succeed. The logic of that failed negotiation is clear. The Europeans are our friends and allies – we should keep it that way and Vote Leave on June 23.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/05/andrea-leadsom-introducing-the-fresh-start-alternative-to-eu-membership.html
Much more persuasive than the chaps doing (almost) all the talking.....
As an aside, I caught up with a board director of one of the credit rating agencies yesterday (we were going the same way on the tube). Never come across someone so terrified about Brexit. He's worried that his kids - who are completely integrated into Europe-wide businesses - just don't seem to be too bothered to vote.
He's also picking up signs that the "old landed families" are coming out for Leave (in his view based on some romantic notion of a glorious past - he doesn't think that the Brits are natural entrepreneurs any way).
But he also mentioned that if we engaged fully in Europe we'd get a lot - Germany needs us to see off the French. But with the half-in-half-out approach we just p1ss everyone off.
(p.s. another patrimonial came out yesterday for Leave. That means that Devon and Hampshire and the working family are all for Leave; Paris for Remain [but they don't have a vote, only the right to make observations] only Wiltshire to come. They've been quiet on the matter, but I wouldn't be surprised if they backed Leave in the end)
http://gawker.com/is-donald-trump-s-hair-a-60-000-weave-a-gawker-invest-1777581357
Noticing that Plato is quoting from cityam.com, perhaps I might be allowed to refer to the same august journal in nominating my pick for the Epsom Derby to be run in just 10 days' time:
http://www.cityam.com/241874/fabres-cloth-of-stars-set-for-investec-derby
The supplemented Cloth Of Stars is sired by the legendary Sea The Stars who not only won this great classic in 2009, but was unbeaten throughout that glorious summer in also winning the 2000 Guineas, the Eclipse Stakes, the International Stakes, the Irish Champion Stakes and last but not least the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
If he's half as good as his Dad, He should be worth a modest e.w. punt at 7/1 with the bookies, or slightly better both to win (7.6/1 net) and to be placed (1.9/1 net) with Betfair.
As ever, DYOR.
There speaketh a banker methinks!
LOL. Did you see someone's comment with the golden ratio spiral?
Few have enhanced their reputation in this campaign. The main effect of the referendum so far has been to damage the Conservatives institutionally.
Precisely ..... it's a great pity that Cameron chose to ignore this key fact during his so-called EU renegotiations which of course proved to be nothing of the sort and despite his claims to the contrary, didn't amount to so much as a row of beans - the sham factor which pushed me decisively into the LEAVE camp.
With that that earnest appearance, she even reminds me ever so slightly of the "Blessed Margaret".
Might Rubio make a comeback in Sark ??
My view would be her as Chancellor, and Gove as Foreign Secretary, as a Brexit dream team.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3607664/Is-PM-s-dodging-TV-debates-just-24-hours-2-600-migrants-picked-en-route-Europe-EU-claims-crisis-dwindling.html
In 2008 there was no May Polling, however the early June polling had Obama winning by 8.
It's possible but unlikely that Remain win big: if, say, the phone polls are correct now and there's then a further swing to Remain over the next month. But other than in that unlikely scenario, to keep his job, he'll need to bring in and promote Brexiters to and in the government. Leadsom could easily be a cabinet minister by 2018/9 and well-placed in a field without stand-out alternatives. In particular, she may tick the 'few negatives' box that matters so much in Tory contests.
1166 + 172 + 27 + 51 + (24 - 6) + 29
@PickardJE: Out campaign is undermining their own credibility by dismissing the highly respected, neutral IFS as stooges of Brussels.
If Leave is the obvious, logical, Patriotic choice, why are they running such a completely shit campaign?
Leadsom at BIS would work.
It's not Remain who have abandoned their entire economic message to focus exclusively on
racismimmigrationYou may be referring to this:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/revealed-how-city-minister-andrea-leadsom-used-controversial-trusts-to-reduce-her-potential-9268469.html
As ever, 'Smart (or well advised) people obey the law to reduce their tax liability' but in the Court of Public Opinion they are "Guilty as charged!"
Sentence First! Verdict Later!
What was Boris doing spinning donuts in a sports car labelled "take control"?
The other possibility is that he has an eye on 2020 already and is positioning himself so as to emerge unscathed from a catastrophic Trump candidacy. But there are risks with that approach.
On the one hand, Trump might win. That would probably bar the path the 2020 anyway as Trump would be highly likely to renominated, though given his lack of establishment support, it's less sure than would usually be the case.
And on the other, Trump might lose but the blame rather than being attached wholly to Trump is also divided with those in the GOP believed to have undermined him.
But even allowing for that, it's a potentially fruitful path and if he is still keen to run next time then it'd be foolish to leave it open to someone else if he's not prepared to back Trump. Or, as you say, if he is prepared to back him then it's leverage up until the convention.
@PickardJE: Vote Leave absurdly calls the Institute 'a paid up propaganda arm of the European Commision' @Guy_Stallard
@OwenJones84: The case for Remain no longer just about the EU. It's to defeat a toxic campaign trying to tap into and fan racism. Turn out and defeat it.
I'm taking issue with what ScottP says, the polls are tight, to suggest the Leave campaign is any worse than Remain's is simply not true.
Do I trust them or "neutral" economists?
You are a very confused young man.
most pathetic post of the morning
I suppose it will be jackboots and the KKK in Lederhosen by lunchtime
so this post is now Tory racist bastards ?
LOL keep em coming, nobody makes the Tories seem more shit than you do.
"Britain's Armed Forces would be more effective outside the European Union, 12 former generals and admirals claim today...The retired senior military officers are backing Veterans for Britain, a campaign for a Leave vote in the EU referendum aimed at serving and former military personnel.
They reject the idea that a Brexit would have a negative impact on the UK's defence and security, saying that Nato is responsible for peace across Europe... [Rose] comments will humiliate the Prime Minister because Sir Michael's name was 'mistakenly' added to a letter orchestrated by Downing Street earlier this year which promoted the EU.
In an individual statement, he says today: 'Sovereignty and defence are indivisible. European law, in my view, has already seriously undermined UK's combat effectiveness as a result of the intrusion of European law into national law. And today, our servicemen and women are in danger of becoming no more than civilians in uniform.'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3607761/Generals-fight-Brexit-forces-stronger-outside-not-fit-purpose-EU-says-dozen-former-brass.html#ixzz49e8GYhIu
@PickardJE: Vote Leave response to IFS criticism is like a child putting fingers in ears and shouting: "I'm not listening la la la LA LA LA LA....."
Tory bestiality freaks in abattoir night of lust ?
Corrupt Tories steal OAPs bingo money to fund crystal meth distribution?
Evil Tory bastards run Rolf Harris cotton plantation ?
Every day just gets more remarkale
Please go easy on Mr P.
If Remain wins, I'm sure he'll be asking his racist friends to join him in a game of happy families and begin insulting Owen Jones. Cameron insists all will be sweetness and light, and he is the font of all wisdom.
There's lancing the boil and there's adding more infection to the wound.
The two main parties fighting like the proverbial ferrets (while insisting there's no split through their gritted teeth).
That's the problem. The Tories have, IMHO, lots of great first lieutenants but very few who I can see as a successful PM with the X-factor.
What army officers achieved in Iraq is probably better left unsaid.
Senior army officers, that is.
You have wonder just how stupid this can get.
I don't usually use this word, but he's a total and utter ****.
Maybe if you were bit smarter more people would like what you write?
Best not tell Scott :-)
"You're a Conservative activist/member/supporter who gets called a racist for supporting Brexit by other Tories.
Does this make you:-
1. More likely to vote Conservative in the future,
2. Less likely to vote Conservative in the future."
It can't be easy slagging the Conservatives every day but you always seem to find fresh material.
Keep it up.
BIS would be a bit of an insult, in my view.
If Leave wins, remember it's the racists wot won it - the Tory racists.
Trump nearing that magic number of delegates of 1237. Now has 1196, only 41 to go and........... BINGO!
Sanders still giving Clinton trouble.
Politicians appear never to have been taught this. But now they work in a discredited profession and those who point the finger get met with a cynical look and "yeah are you telling he's not doing it too"
Still I'm waiting mad keen for Scott's Boris in Bullingdon post. Should be a cracker :-)
Oh dear.
Why can't a new MP who is good enough become PM? All they lack is the knowledge of the school yard antics employed by the more experienced MPs. Hardly a loss considering this referendum debate.
I believe the Earl Marischal is also in favour of Leave.
edit: the Lord High Admiral hasn't declared for either side, but I have a sneaking suspicion...
Maybe if you were smarter and wittier, people would like your posts more?
I suspect CR meant dick in the sense of detective, as your always bringing to light new scandals on the corrupt racist Tories.
Speaking of which did you investigate the one about the bloke and the pigs head ?