Given the increasingly feral state of many Tory MPs, who seem to have been let of the leash by the referendum and increasingly are losing the plot, I can't help thinking that Cameron is more likely to be ousted if Remain narrowly squeaks home than if Leave does, odd as that sounds. Given he presumably wants to stay as PM till 2019ish, even if he does lose the EU vote, I can see him being able to hang on given the paucity of alternative viable options, at this stage, on the Tory benches - IF he appoints sufficient number of Leavers to his Cabinet and puts a sensible, balanced negotiating team together and comes up with a clear idea of what he thinks the post-EU Britain's relationship with our European cousins should look like. That would require something more focused than the fag packet "renegotiation" he attempted, whilst not casting us out into the wilderness completely.
If not, it would surely be Osborne, I think Boris has queered his pitch, and then there is no other big beast on offer.
My view would be her as Chancellor, and Gove as Foreign Secretary, as a Brexit dream team.
Won't happen. Chancellor is too big a jump and besides, unless you have a new PM, Cameron isn't going to leave Osborne without either other top three job.
Leadsom at BIS would work.
I disagree. I think she could do it. She has lots of talent, worked in the City, and has experience as economic secretary to the Treasury.
BIS would be a bit of an insult, in my view.
She's a junior minister at the Department of Energy and Climate Change. How on earth would a move to *any* cabinet post - never mind one probably more senior than her current department - be an insult?
She has worked as Economic Secretary to the Treasury and in the City. She has shown leadership, competence and capability in her brief, and through her TV interviews, press articles and leadership of Fresh Start.
She is only a junior minister because Osborne has artificially held her career back. And far more qualified for the role than he was with *no* government experience at all when he came to office in 2010, and just a modern history degree and life in politics.
I see no reason why she shouldn't jump straight into that role and I think she'd do a bloody good job.
'No' reason? I can think of several, both in terms of government experience and practical politics. I also think it'd be unfair on her to drop her into a position like that as the media scrutiny would be extremely intense following such a promotion and any failings would be magnified more than normal.
It won't happen though. There are other, bigger, beasts who would have a claim on the Treasury were Osborne to be moved and while they might accept being passed over for one of their own, they'll kick up a fuss if they're all passed over - and Cameron is in a weak position to see off that sort of challenge.
We will have to agree to disagree.
I don't agree with a 'do your time' approach on the ladder. It's about capability to me.
She is very capable.
I certainly wouldn't advocate a time served approach but you wouldn't make a very capable colonel a full general.
I have no problem with Leadsom coming into the cabinet but to go straight to No 11 is too big a step. In any case, experience in another department is never bad all-round experience if someone wants to aspire to still higher office.
But the single thing that no one seems able to believe – the thing that apparently demands explanation – is the fact that I am phone-free. That’s right: I do not own a cellphone; I do not use a cellphone. I do not have a phone. No. Phone. Not even an old-fashioned dumb one. Nothing. You can’t call me unless you use my landline – yes, landline! Can you imagine? At home. Or call someone else that I happen to be with (more on that later).
Mr. Herdson, there were many occasions when patriarchs, generals or senior men in the capital challenged (or led) emperors [Justinian and Justin being the most obvious example].
Basil II, after an interesting childhood [linked below], was never in that situation because of his tremendous leadership abilities and ruthlessness.
But the single thing that no one seems able to believe – the thing that apparently demands explanation – is the fact that I am phone-free. That’s right: I do not own a cellphone; I do not use a cellphone. I do not have a phone. No. Phone. Not even an old-fashioned dumb one. Nothing. You can’t call me unless you use my landline – yes, landline! Can you imagine? At home. Or call someone else that I happen to be with (more on that later).
My view would be her as Chancellor, and Gove as Foreign Secretary, as a Brexit dream team.
Won't happen. Chancellor is too big a jump and besides, unless you have a new PM, Cameron isn't going to leave Osborne without either other top three job.
Leadsom at BIS would work.
I disagree. I think she could do it. She has lots of talent, worked in the City, and has experience as economic secretary to the Treasury.
BIS would be a bit of an insult, in my view.
She's a junior minister at the Department of Energy and Climate Change. How on earth would a move to *any* cabinet post - never mind one probably more senior than her current department - be an insult?
She has worked as Economic Secretary to the Treasury and in the City. She has shown leadership, competence and capability in her brief, and through her TV interviews, press articles and leadership of Fresh Start.
She is only a junior minister because Osborne has artificially held her career back. And far more qualified for the role than he was with *no* government experience at all when he came to office in 2010, and just a modern history degree and life in politics.
I see no reason why she shouldn't jump straight into that role and I think she'd do a bloody good job.
'No' reason? I can think of several, both in terms of government experience and practical politics. I also think it'd be unfair on her to drop her into a position like that as the media scrutiny would be extremely intense following such a promotion and any failings would be magnified more than normal.
It won't happen though. There are other, bigger, beasts who would have a claim on the Treasury were Osborne to be moved and while they might accept being passed over for one of their own, they'll kick up a fuss if they're all passed over - and Cameron is in a weak position to see off that sort of challenge.
I would have Leadsom at BIS, Gove at No. 11 and demote Osborne.
Additionally I would give Patel a promotion. Not sure what to do with Boris.
George 'Ramsay Bolton' Osborne probably has some "special" stuff planned for Bojo.
Boris to become the new Reek? Marina might not be too happy, or then again maybe she will!
Given the increasingly feral state of many Tory MPs, who seem to have been let of the leash by the referendum and increasingly are losing the plot, I can't help thinking that Cameron is more likely to be ousted if Remain narrowly squeaks home than if Leave does, odd as that sounds. Given he presumably wants to stay as PM till 2019ish, even if he does lose the EU vote, I can see him being able to hang on given the paucity of alternative viable options, at this stage, on the Tory benches - IF he appoints sufficient number of Leavers to his Cabinet and puts a sensible, balanced negotiating team together and comes up with a clear idea of what he thinks the post-EU Britain's relationship with our European cousins should look like. That would require something more focused than the fag packet "renegotiation" he attempted, whilst not casting us out into the wilderness completely.
If not, it would surely be Osborne, I think Boris has queered his pitch, and then there is no other big beast on offer.
If Remain won by 2 or 3%, I wonder how Cameron would fare if a vote of confidence was called?
Given how they screwed up VAT for micro-traders (and smaller firms) whilst aiming for Amazon, one anticipates they'll **** this up too.
"But let's face it, the online services could meet the 20% quota by loading up themselves with lots of rubbish French, Italian, Spanish and whatever content.
"Or they could simply remove some of their lesser-watched non-EU material."
So extra costs for business or reduced consumer choice.
Nil points for DP, didn't let Gisela respond to Handcock rubbishing Col Kemp. Now they're talking about pop events instead. I really don't care what frigging DJ Mike Reid thinks.
The IFS is mostly bankrolled by something called the Economic and Social Research Council.
What the F is that???
Their website is coy about who bankrolls them
It's doubled down on the NIESR study, just as the BoE and Treasury and IMF have inputted into each other's studies:
"Rather than do its own economic modelling, the IFS has taken the mid-point of most of the major reports on the possible referendum impact and built its analysis from that. It judges that mid-point to be closest to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research study which suggested that Brexit could leave the UK economy between 2% and 3.5% smaller than under a remain scenario.
From that the IFS uses a simple economic model that suggests that for every 1% decline in GDP, the government needs to raise an extra £14bn due to lower tax receipts. Of course, if the economic impact of Brexit is - in the long run - positive, as some economists argue, then the impact on the public finances would also be positive."
I'd agree that industry and the civil service are different. I joined from industry late in my career and had German experts visit me about a scientific matter. They had a plane to catch later so rather than have them wandering round looking for something to eat, I ordered sandwiches from the canteen and signed the chitty.
An apologetic e-mail from admin followed. Not only was I not senior enough to sign the chitty but neither was my boss or my bosses boss. I went to see my bosses bosses boss and said "It was only a plate of bloody sandwiches, what's going on?" He just smiled and said "You've not got the hang of how we work here, have you?"
Experience of politics is experience of the school yard. I'd rather have a PM with sound judgement. Not that I had it, though.
Reminds me of a certain German bank, which shall remain nameless, where the head of investment banking had to sign any expense over £1,000...
Since when are army officers neutral? They are almost certainly good at fighting. But it's South America, Burma etc that tend to include them in politics.
They won't because Leave couldn't make hay out of a barn full of straw.
To be fair, they also have the BBC on their side who *still* have the IFS scare story on the front page.
Leave are a shower of sh8t, to be sure.
Indeed, Leave would greatly benefit from being locked in a room for a day and hit around the head with enormo-haddock until they get themselves standing behind a few coherent points that Remain find difficult to rebut.
But David "Chicken Licken" Cameron and George "Dodgy Dossiers" Osborne have both seen their credibility take a heavy and lasting hit. It does seem to be a race to the bottom by both sides. When you thought the image of politicians couldn't sink lower - hey presto!! - a flash, a curl of smoke and a trapdoor is revealed.
Since when are army officers neutral? They are almost certainly good at fighting. But it's South America, Burma etc that tend to include them in politics.
Yes luckily our soldiers aren't neutral, they have our best interests at heart. Without them we'd be finished.
Since when are army officers neutral? They are almost certainly good at fighting. But it's South America, Burma etc that tend to include them in politics.
Yes luckily our soldiers aren't neutral, they have our best interests at heart. Without them we'd be finished.
Smear and insults is all that you Leavers have left isn't it.
I might do a piece this weekend. Leave: Fruitcakes led by donkeys
Look at the second sentence - smear, insult. Dearie me.
You have taken leave of your senses. If someone is on the payroll, their probity is always in doubt and it would be foolish to pretend that exactly the same wouldn't happen if the boot was on the other foot.
£25bn in Overseas Aid/EU contributions.
What kind of government wouldn't use it for it's own people in transition?
What twaddle. Everyone is on someone's payroll. That does not mean that every employee in the country is lacking in probity.
Overstating the case like this makes people less inclined to listen when a genuine argument about a possible conflict of interest is made.
Few people stand up to their pay master. Those who toe the line get promoted. Whistleblowers get sacked.
Most people have mortgages to pay and no other source of income than their pay.
I'm more of the view that like-recruits-like. We prefer those who share the same wavelength.
I'd like to see what the report actually says, but it would be silly to dismiss the money and patronage trail. My company is owned by a consortium of companies who have shareholdings of different sizes. No-one would NEVER speak out against one of them, whether 10% or less. Just wouldn't happen. That's life.
Just like if I were TSE, and wanted a job with the Tory party, I wouldn't ever speak out against the leadership on PB. That's life.
It's not a 'grand conspiracy', as Remains are fond of calling it in an attempt to bat off any criticism of their beloved brass plaque institutions, it's simple self-interest and self-preservation in operation.
Don't fall for Blackburn's bollocks.
I've written pieces slagging off Dave, but people seem to forget that, and prefer to imagine what they think I wrote.
Me thinks you protest too much. Your bromance with Cameron is embarrassing.
Go on "slag him off" now if you feel so strongly about it.
Third piece has Farage dancing to Great Escape theme on an open topped bus.
Sky mentioned it supposedly getting stuck, but no pix - and it'd been used by Torville and Dean once. There's no sensible reporting, very disappointing trivial stuff unworthy of diary columns.
They won't because Leave couldn't make hay out of a barn full of straw.
To be fair, they also have the BBC on their side who *still* have the IFS scare story on the front page.
Leave are a shower of sh8t, to be sure.
Indeed, Leave would greatly benefit from being locked in a room for a day and hit around the head with enormo-haddock until they get themselves standing behind a few coherent points that Remain find difficult to rebut.
But David "Chicken Licken" Cameron and George "Dodgy Dossiers" Osborne have both seen their credibility take a heavy and lasting hit. It does seem to be a race to the bottom by both sides. When you thought the image of politicians couldn't sink lower - hey presto!! - a flash, a curl of smoke and a trapdoor is revealed.
It's like reality TV in suits. Very few come out looking better. Some much worse than others. Cameron's rating is beyond dire 18% ???
So there are people on here who would like the army to be deciding who and when we should fight?
I think the pressure on the Brexit side is beginning to tell. The irrational arguments are becoming more prominent.
I would rather Remain fought a more positive campaign based on what sort of country we want to be but it is Leave who are beginning to sound desperate. Their fingers are in their ears so as to block out any facts that might contradict their firmly held world view, and as a result they also can't hear that they are getting louder and louder and shoutier and shoutier themselves. And less credible and more like the person you would cross the road to avoid.
On topic, this is a good call. Andrea Leadsom is quite local to me and she is well-regarded in the area as a hard working and credible MP. Who has enhanced their reputation by being part of the Leave Campaign? I'd suggest her, Dominic Raab, Gisela Stuart - and go no further.
Oddly if I had to suggest the biggest traveller in the other direction, I'd go for Priti Patel. I'm struggling to understand why, but there's something about her views and the way she conducts herself that makes me very nervous about her having a prominent role in Government, even her current role. Is it just me?
On topic, this is a good call. Andrea Leadsom is quite local to me and she is well-regarded in the area as a hard working and credible MP. Who has enhanced their reputation by being part of the Leave Campaign? I'd suggest her, Dominic Raab, Gisela Stuart - and go no further.
Oddly if I had to suggest the biggest traveller in the other direction, I'd go for Priti Patel. I'm struggling to understand why, but there's something about her views and the way she conducts herself that makes me very nervous about her having a prominent role in Government, even her current role. Is it just me?
Not just you, I've done a piece for next week on Priti Patel that I'm sure some will call a hatchet job.
They won't because Leave couldn't make hay out of a barn full of straw.
To be fair, they also have the BBC on their side who *still* have the IFS scare story on the front page.
Leave are a shower of sh8t, to be sure.
Indeed, Leave would greatly benefit from being locked in a room for a day and hit around the head with enormo-haddock until they get themselves standing behind a few coherent points that Remain find difficult to rebut.
But David "Chicken Licken" Cameron and George "Dodgy Dossiers" Osborne have both seen their credibility take a heavy and lasting hit. It does seem to be a race to the bottom by both sides. When you thought the image of politicians couldn't sink lower - hey presto!! - a flash, a curl of smoke and a trapdoor is revealed.
I have been distinctly unedified by the whole campaign so far, and it gets worse by the week.
I drove past a huge Vote Leave poster on the way into work today (the stupidly dubious Turkey/passport one), which left me as cold as their "Spend £350m more a week on the NHS" buses. Meanwhile Remain trots out all manner of scare stories, including Osborne's guff of a report the other day, so it's hard to know what the reality is likely to be. It is all a massive cock-up by Cameron, he should have stood firm and let the next Treaty reform be the basis for a vote, so a "No" becomes the basis for a renegotiation, not the flimsy effort of the past year that came to nowt worth a hill of beans.
I'm starting to think I'm going to abstain from what has become a battle amongst the Tory Party's factions, and just hope for the best whatever the bitterly divided nation decides.
Never have I felt so torn, unenthused and non-committal about anything in the political sphere!
Given the increasingly feral state of many Tory MPs, who seem to have been let of the leash by the referendum and increasingly are losing the plot, I can't help thinking that Cameron is more likely to be ousted if Remain narrowly squeaks home than if Leave does, odd as that sounds. Given he presumably wants to stay as PM till 2019ish, even if he does lose the EU vote, I can see him being able to hang on given the paucity of alternative viable options, at this stage, on the Tory benches - IF he appoints sufficient number of Leavers to his Cabinet and puts a sensible, balanced negotiating team together and comes up with a clear idea of what he thinks the post-EU Britain's relationship with our European cousins should look like. That would require something more focused than the fag packet "renegotiation" he attempted, whilst not casting us out into the wilderness completely.
If not, it would surely be Osborne, I think Boris has queered his pitch, and then there is no other big beast on offer.
If Remain won by 2 or 3%, I wonder how Cameron would fare if a vote of confidence was called?
On topic, this is a good call. Andrea Leadsom is quite local to me and she is well-regarded in the area as a hard working and credible MP. Who has enhanced their reputation by being part of the Leave Campaign? I'd suggest her, Dominic Raab, Gisela Stuart - and go no further.
Oddly if I had to suggest the biggest traveller in the other direction, I'd go for Priti Patel. I'm struggling to understand why, but there's something about her views and the way she conducts herself that makes me very nervous about her having a prominent role in Government, even her current role. Is it just me?
Agree with your pix. Priti is a bit hardcore and definite in her views for my blood.
So.. why 18% DKs with Survation but only 3% with ORB?
Something's not right here.
Nothing is right. Even an 18% DK WNV number looks high to me.
By the way I'm not saying this because I think Leave is being hugely understated - the opposite is probably more likely, I just think the methods make no logical sense.
The corollary of someone being less likely to vote is them being more likely not to vote. So the more you take off Leave or Remain based on likelihood to vote, the more you need to add to DK WNV.
On topic, this is a good call. Andrea Leadsom is quite local to me and she is well-regarded in the area as a hard working and credible MP. Who has enhanced their reputation by being part of the Leave Campaign? I'd suggest her, Dominic Raab, Gisela Stuart - and go no further.
Oddly if I had to suggest the biggest traveller in the other direction, I'd go for Priti Patel. I'm struggling to understand why, but there's something about her views and the way she conducts herself that makes me very nervous about her having a prominent role in Government, even her current role. Is it just me?
Agree with your pix. Priti is a bit hardcore and definite in her views for my blood.
She could make a decent chancellor maybe - can see her taking actual tough choices !
On topic, this is a good call. Andrea Leadsom is quite local to me and she is well-regarded in the area as a hard working and credible MP. Who has enhanced their reputation by being part of the Leave Campaign? I'd suggest her, Dominic Raab, Gisela Stuart - and go no further.
Oddly if I had to suggest the biggest traveller in the other direction, I'd go for Priti Patel. I'm struggling to understand why, but there's something about her views and the way she conducts herself that makes me very nervous about her having a prominent role in Government, even her current role. Is it just me?
Not just you, I've done a piece for next week on Priti Patel that I'm sure some will call a hatchet job.
I went to see her speak last week. When considering Leadership candidates we should not get too hung up on whether they are the best person for the job. If that was an important criteria we would not have had IDS, Brown, Corbyn or Farron. We need to consider first the question of whether they will stand, secondly whether they will get support from MPs over the competition and finally if they would win the run off with the membership.
Priti has the ambition, so she passes the first hurdle, but I think she would not get over either of the next two.
On topic, this is a good call. Andrea Leadsom is quite local to me and she is well-regarded in the area as a hard working and credible MP. Who has enhanced their reputation by being part of the Leave Campaign? I'd suggest her, Dominic Raab, Gisela Stuart - and go no further.
Oddly if I had to suggest the biggest traveller in the other direction, I'd go for Priti Patel. I'm struggling to understand why, but there's something about her views and the way she conducts herself that makes me very nervous about her having a prominent role in Government, even her current role. Is it just me?
Not just you, I've done a piece for next week on Priti Patel that I'm sure some will call a hatchet job.
On topic, this is a good call. Andrea Leadsom is quite local to me and she is well-regarded in the area as a hard working and credible MP. Who has enhanced their reputation by being part of the Leave Campaign? I'd suggest her, Dominic Raab, Gisela Stuart - and go no further.
Oddly if I had to suggest the biggest traveller in the other direction, I'd go for Priti Patel. I'm struggling to understand why, but there's something about her views and the way she conducts herself that makes me very nervous about her having a prominent role in Government, even her current role. Is it just me?
Agree with your pix. Priti is a bit hardcore and definite in her views for my blood.
She could make a decent chancellor maybe - can see her taking actual tough choices !
She's steely. I think you need a very tough hide to do anything good in this political environment.
On topic, this is a good call. Andrea Leadsom is quite local to me and she is well-regarded in the area as a hard working and credible MP. Who has enhanced their reputation by being part of the Leave Campaign? I'd suggest her, Dominic Raab, Gisela Stuart - and go no further.
Oddly if I had to suggest the biggest traveller in the other direction, I'd go for Priti Patel. I'm struggling to understand why, but there's something about her views and the way she conducts herself that makes me very nervous about her having a prominent role in Government, even her current role. Is it just me?
Not just you, I've done a piece for next week on Priti Patel that I'm sure some will call a hatchet job.
On topic, this is a good call. Andrea Leadsom is quite local to me and she is well-regarded in the area as a hard working and credible MP. Who has enhanced their reputation by being part of the Leave Campaign? I'd suggest her, Dominic Raab, Gisela Stuart - and go no further.
Oddly if I had to suggest the biggest traveller in the other direction, I'd go for Priti Patel. I'm struggling to understand why, but there's something about her views and the way she conducts herself that makes me very nervous about her having a prominent role in Government, even her current role. Is it just me?
Not just you, I've done a piece for next week on Priti Patel that I'm sure some will call a hatchet job.
On topic, this is a good call. Andrea Leadsom is quite local to me and she is well-regarded in the area as a hard working and credible MP. Who has enhanced their reputation by being part of the Leave Campaign? I'd suggest her, Dominic Raab, Gisela Stuart - and go no further.
Oddly if I had to suggest the biggest traveller in the other direction, I'd go for Priti Patel. I'm struggling to understand why, but there's something about her views and the way she conducts herself that makes me very nervous about her having a prominent role in Government, even her current role. Is it just me?
Not just you, I've done a piece for next week on Priti Patel that I'm sure some will call a hatchet job.
She is quite fit though.
I'm not that shallow. Ahem
We all know TSE has serious man-love for his heart-throb Dave
On topic, this is a good call. Andrea Leadsom is quite local to me and she is well-regarded in the area as a hard working and credible MP. Who has enhanced their reputation by being part of the Leave Campaign? I'd suggest her, Dominic Raab, Gisela Stuart - and go no further.
Oddly if I had to suggest the biggest traveller in the other direction, I'd go for Priti Patel. I'm struggling to understand why, but there's something about her views and the way she conducts herself that makes me very nervous about her having a prominent role in Government, even her current role. Is it just me?
Agree with your pix. Priti is a bit hardcore and definite in her views for my blood.
Wishy-washy hand-wringing liberal, so you are! :-)
They won't because Leave couldn't make hay out of a barn full of straw.
To be fair, they also have the BBC on their side who *still* have the IFS scare story on the front page.
Leave are a shower of sh8t, to be sure.
Indeed, Leave would greatly benefit from being locked in a room for a day and hit around the head with enormo-haddock until they get themselves standing behind a few coherent points that Remain find difficult to rebut.
But David "Chicken Licken" Cameron and George "Dodgy Dossiers" Osborne have both seen their credibility take a heavy and lasting hit. It does seem to be a race to the bottom by both sides. When you thought the image of politicians couldn't sink lower - hey presto!! - a flash, a curl of smoke and a trapdoor is revealed.
I have been distinctly unedified by the whole campaign so far, and it gets worse by the week.
I drove past a huge Vote Leave poster on the way into work today (the stupidly dubious Turkey/passport one), which left me as cold as their "Spend £350m more a week on the NHS" buses. Meanwhile Remain trots out all manner of scare stories, including Osborne's guff of a report the other day, so it's hard to know what the reality is likely to be. It is all a massive cock-up by Cameron, he should have stood firm and let the next Treaty reform be the basis for a vote, so a "No" becomes the basis for a renegotiation, not the flimsy effort of the past year that came to nowt worth a hill of beans.
I'm starting to think I'm going to abstain from what has become a battle amongst the Tory Party's factions, and just hope for the best whatever the bitterly divided nation decides.
Never have I felt so torn, unenthused and non-committal about anything in the political sphere!
I honestly can't think of any Tory MP who seems fit to assume the mantle of PM when Cameron goes, other than (with great reluctance) Osborne or Boris.
Cameron, Osborne and Boris are the only 3 big beasts in the Tory jungle. It has to be one of them.
To be honest, assuming he survives next month's outcome, and despite how madly he has infuriated me at times over the past decade, I think the Tories' best hope is to persuade Cameron to do a u turn and win a third term in 2020....
Mr. Sykes, I'd urge you to consider the (sensible) arguments and vote the way you think is in the country's long term interests.
The campaigns have been dire but the vote isn't about approving either of them, but the fate of the nation.
Put in those terms, it probably has to be a cautious "safety first" - Remain.
Or, as that implies an endorsement of BSIE's scare stories and Cameron's non-deal, perhaps "abstain and reluctantly hope for remain".
Since Remain looks highly likely to win, the aim of the cautious voter should surely be to ensure it's a slim victory so as not to give the victors the cockiness to sign us up to everything going.
What if Project Fear doesn't scare people to the polls but just makes them stay at home on resigned frustration and anger?
I'm not sure everyone is going to be able to bring themselves to vote for the EU, even if they do fear Brexit.
I think that's why we've had a lot of stuff from Remain friendly people talking about complacency and now talking up the threat of low turnout winning it for Leave. Some people may be convinced by project fear, but how many of those will be motivated enough to vote to stay in the EU.
I think this is what the battle comes down to, Leave need to target the "reluctant" remainers while Remain need to target the DNVs like the No campaign did very successfully in Scotland. This is almost a rerun of the IndyRef, except the Leave side are stupidly hobbling their own argument by either ignoring or lying about the economics. The 40-45% of people in favour of Leave are not going to be lost by any economic argument, if they were it would already have happened by now. That means an argument needs to crafted to win over the reluctant remainers, who are in the "I wouldn't vote to join, but since we're in we may as well make the best of it" camp. I think they would respond well to further the stated goal of the EU to become a functioning state and see the 2-4% GDP hit as a price worth paying to avoid it. Positions on how many more or less migrants we will take isn't going to win the reluctant remainers over, if Leave could show that there is a real threat to this nation's continued existence then the referendum could be won. It shouldn't be that hard to find the federalists in the EU pushing the superstate, they are very open about their desire to create one, and if people don't recognise the names then use ones they do recognise like Kinnock who has written a letter today advocating the super state.
I honestly can't think of any Tory MP who seems fit to assume the mantle of PM when Cameron goes, other than (with great reluctance) Osborne or Boris.
Cameron, Osborne and Boris are the only 3 big beasts in the Tory jungle. It has to be one of them.
To be honest, assuming he survives next month's outcome, and despite how madly he has infuriated me at times over the past decade, I think the Tories' best hope is to persuade Cameron to do a u turn and win a third term in 2020....
Ignoring DKs the Survation poll implies a Remain lead of circa 7.5%. That is fairly comfortable as a margin but hardly enough to justify Remain being 1/8 with the Bookies!
Comments
If not, it would surely be Osborne, I think Boris has queered his pitch, and then there is no other big beast on offer.
I have no problem with Leadsom coming into the cabinet but to go straight to No 11 is too big a step. In any case, experience in another department is never bad all-round experience if someone wants to aspire to still higher office.
But the single thing that no one seems able to believe – the thing that apparently demands explanation – is the fact that I am phone-free. That’s right: I do not own a cellphone; I do not use a cellphone. I do not have a phone. No. Phone. Not even an old-fashioned dumb one. Nothing. You can’t call me unless you use my landline – yes, landline! Can you imagine? At home. Or call someone else that I happen to be with (more on that later).
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jan/11/steve-hilton-silicon-valley-no-cellphone-technology-apps-uber
So would I, if only for being photogenic. Angela would have to do it on ability.
Ooops! Just shown my shallowness again.
Basil II, after an interesting childhood [linked below], was never in that situation because of his tremendous leadership abilities and ruthlessness.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/basil-iis-odd-childhood.html
It'll not be Ozzie or Dave in 2020 but it sure as hell wont be Jezza.
Andrea I meant, not Ms Eagle. Although what whine is tiresome, she's enough ability to show George up as an idiot.
??????????????????????????????????????????
On a serious note, that's ridiculous running over of time. Has Bercow nodded off?
Remain are going to have a problem with this.
EDIT - has Matt Handcock had botox? His face barely moves on DP. And he's drowning over Alan Sugar.
The world can't be that cruel, can it?
"There are no Brexiteers on the front bench!"
...apart from the leader of the Leave campaign. Umm, errr.
To be fair, they also have the BBC on their side who *still* have the IFS scare story on the front page.
"Or they could simply remove some of their lesser-watched non-EU material."
So extra costs for business or reduced consumer choice.
Great, thank you.
What the F is that???
Their website is coy about who bankrolls them
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/735438386983534592
"Rather than do its own economic modelling, the IFS has taken the mid-point of most of the major reports on the possible referendum impact and built its analysis from that.
It judges that mid-point to be closest to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research study which suggested that Brexit could leave the UK economy between 2% and 3.5% smaller than under a remain scenario.
From that the IFS uses a simple economic model that suggests that for every 1% decline in GDP, the government needs to raise an extra £14bn due to lower tax receipts.
Of course, if the economic impact of Brexit is - in the long run - positive, as some economists argue, then the impact on the public finances would also be positive."
The assumptions and modelling are all herding.
Totally unbiased??
Misrepresentation is the preserve of the Remain campaign! ;-)
Could have sworn I heard some galloping horsemen with scythes, black horses.
What happened to Dave's vision of sunlit uplands?
But David "Chicken Licken" Cameron and George "Dodgy Dossiers" Osborne have both seen their credibility take a heavy and lasting hit. It does seem to be a race to the bottom by both sides. When you thought the image of politicians couldn't sink lower - hey presto!! - a flash, a curl of smoke and a trapdoor is revealed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curragh_incident
https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/735442253515198467
Go on "slag him off" now if you feel so strongly about it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/votin-eu-referendum-youth-campaign_uk_57442ec9e4b0e71ef36da768?6vo5pztw1ywe1att9
It would be odd if other PBers confirmed that their region has something similar when the One O'Clock News ends.
I think the pressure on the Brexit side is beginning to tell. The irrational arguments are becoming more prominent.
I would rather Remain fought a more positive campaign based on what sort of country we want to be but it is Leave who are beginning to sound desperate. Their fingers are in their ears so as to block out any facts that might contradict their firmly held world view, and as a result they also can't hear that they are getting louder and louder and shoutier and shoutier themselves. And less credible and more like the person you would cross the road to avoid.
Oddly if I had to suggest the biggest traveller in the other direction, I'd go for Priti Patel. I'm struggling to understand why, but there's something about her views and the way she conducts herself that makes me very nervous about her having a prominent role in Government, even her current role. Is it just me?
Something's not right here.
Oh dear - not the message we were getting on here earlier.
I'm not sure everyone is going to be able to bring themselves to vote for the EU, even if they do fear Brexit.
I drove past a huge Vote Leave poster on the way into work today (the stupidly dubious Turkey/passport one), which left me as cold as their "Spend £350m more a week on the NHS" buses. Meanwhile Remain trots out all manner of scare stories, including Osborne's guff of a report the other day, so it's hard to know what the reality is likely to be. It is all a massive cock-up by Cameron, he should have stood firm and let the next Treaty reform be the basis for a vote, so a "No" becomes the basis for a renegotiation, not the flimsy effort of the past year that came to nowt worth a hill of beans.
I'm starting to think I'm going to abstain from what has become a battle amongst the Tory Party's factions, and just hope for the best whatever the bitterly divided nation decides.
Never have I felt so torn, unenthused and non-committal about anything in the political sphere!
The campaigns have been dire but the vote isn't about approving either of them, but the fate of the nation.
By the way I'm not saying this because I think Leave is being hugely understated - the opposite is probably more likely, I just think the methods make no logical sense.
The corollary of someone being less likely to vote is them being more likely not to vote. So the more you take off Leave or Remain based on likelihood to vote, the more you need to add to DK WNV.
Priti has the ambition, so she passes the first hurdle, but I think she would not get over either of the next two.
They then compress it by asking which way all are leaning: that gets them to 58% Remain and 38% Leave with 4% DKs.
They then strip out those not certain to vote to get to 55% Remain, 42% Leave and 3% DKs.
Or, as that implies an endorsement of BSIE's scare stories and Cameron's non-deal, perhaps "abstain and reluctantly hope for remain".
A Leave vote would force a real and meaningful negotiation with the EU.
Cameron, Osborne and Boris are the only 3 big beasts in the Tory jungle. It has to be one of them.
To be honest, assuming he survives next month's outcome, and despite how madly he has infuriated me at times over the past decade, I think the Tories' best hope is to persuade Cameron to do a u turn and win a third term in 2020....
I think this is what the battle comes down to, Leave need to target the "reluctant" remainers while Remain need to target the DNVs like the No campaign did very successfully in Scotland. This is almost a rerun of the IndyRef, except the Leave side are stupidly hobbling their own argument by either ignoring or lying about the economics. The 40-45% of people in favour of Leave are not going to be lost by any economic argument, if they were it would already have happened by now. That means an argument needs to crafted to win over the reluctant remainers, who are in the "I wouldn't vote to join, but since we're in we may as well make the best of it" camp. I think they would respond well to further the stated goal of the EU to become a functioning state and see the 2-4% GDP hit as a price worth paying to avoid it. Positions on how many more or less migrants we will take isn't going to win the reluctant remainers over, if Leave could show that there is a real threat to this nation's continued existence then the referendum could be won. It shouldn't be that hard to find the federalists in the EU pushing the superstate, they are very open about their desire to create one, and if people don't recognise the names then use ones they do recognise like Kinnock who has written a letter today advocating the super state.