politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-Treasury minister & Brexiter, Angela Leadsom, is having
Comments
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Good morning, everyone.
Interesting tip. Hmm. I put a little on it, but would she even stand?0 -
Well @Plato, me old darlin' let me tell you that under a federal EU Britain (so named) won't be allowed a separate standing armed forces. The British Army will just be a couple of divisions inside an EU wide army. Probably taking orders from German or Benelux generals who have no experience of actual battle since WW2, too.Plato_Says said:Leave playing the Army brass card today - most amusingly, Sir Michael Rose is leading the charge.
"Britain's Armed Forces would be more effective outside the European Union, 12 former generals and admirals claim today...The retired senior military officers are backing Veterans for Britain, a campaign for a Leave vote in the EU referendum aimed at serving and former military personnel.
They reject the idea that a Brexit would have a negative impact on the UK's defence and security, saying that Nato is responsible for peace across Europe... [Rose] comments will humiliate the Prime Minister because Sir Michael's name was 'mistakenly' added to a letter orchestrated by Downing Street earlier this year which promoted the EU.
In an individual statement, he says today: 'Sovereignty and defence are indivisible. European law, in my view, has already seriously undermined UK's combat effectiveness as a result of the intrusion of European law into national law. And today, our servicemen and women are in danger of becoming no more than civilians in uniform.'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3607761/Generals-fight-Brexit-forces-stronger-outside-not-fit-purpose-EU-says-dozen-former-brass.html#ixzz49e8GYhIu0 -
"Could".Scott_P said:@GregHands: IFS today saying a vote to leave could result in up to a 40bn hit to the public finances in 2019/20 - almost the size of the defence budget.
More scaremongering bollocks.0 -
Mr. Quidder, or "less than one year's deficit".0
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I think they're doing away with the term "Britain".MikeK said:
Well @Plato, me old darlin' let me tell you that under a federal EU Britain (so named) won't be allowed a separate standing armed forces. The British Army will just be a couple of divisions inside an EU wide army. Probably taking orders from German or Benelux generals who have no experience of actual battle since WW2, too.Plato_Says said:Leave playing the Army brass card today - most amusingly, Sir Michael Rose is leading the charge.
"Britain's Armed Forces would be more effective outside the European Union, 12 former generals and admirals claim today...The retired senior military officers are backing Veterans for Britain, a campaign for a Leave vote in the EU referendum aimed at serving and former military personnel.
They reject the idea that a Brexit would have a negative impact on the UK's defence and security, saying that Nato is responsible for peace across Europe... [Rose] comments will humiliate the Prime Minister because Sir Michael's name was 'mistakenly' added to a letter orchestrated by Downing Street earlier this year which promoted the EU.
In an individual statement, he says today: 'Sovereignty and defence are indivisible. European law, in my view, has already seriously undermined UK's combat effectiveness as a result of the intrusion of European law into national law. And today, our servicemen and women are in danger of becoming no more than civilians in uniform.'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3607761/Generals-fight-Brexit-forces-stronger-outside-not-fit-purpose-EU-says-dozen-former-brass.html#ixzz49e8GYhIu
They are just going to use "Outpost 28".0 -
It certainly demonstrates that one's most bitter and inveterate hatreds are always reserved for members of one's own side.MikeSmithson said:What a happy family we are this morning.
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You post dickish things, you write dickish things and you behave in a dickish way.Scott_P said:
Just the sort of reasoned argument and debate I have come to expect from my fans, who keep boasting about how clever they are.Casino_Royale said:Scott is just a dick.
Oh dear.
So you are, in short, a bit of a dick.
But that's ok - I'm sure you have some fans.
Somewhere.0 -
Ha.Alanbrooke said:
That's unfair Scott.Scott_P said:
Just the sort of reasoned argument and debate I have come to expect from my fans, who keep boasting about how clever they are.Casino_Royale said:Scott is just a dick.
Oh dear.
I suspect CR meant dick in the sense of detective, as your always bringing to light new scandals on the corrupt racist Tories.
Speaking of which did you investigate the one about the bloke and the pigs head ?0 -
Mr. F, heretics are more hated than heathens.
Of course if members wish to cheer themselves up, they could always buy a cracking comedy for under £3:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Edric-Hero-Hornska-Book-ebook/dp/B01DOSP9ZK
[/subtlety]0 -
He's just brilliant at this name tag thing. It really shapes the debate for him.Tim_B said:For those who puzzled over the meaning on the previous thread of SWAG, it stands for - Scientific Wild Ass Guess.
I just watched highlights of Trump's speech in New Mexico, and we have a new nickname. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who hugely bigged up her alleged Cherokee Indian heritage until it was recently debunked, is now being called Pocahontas by Trump.
That will stick.0 -
Morning all,MikeSmithson said:What a happy family we are this morning.
Blimey, Mike's right. It's getting tetchy on here.
To distract, anybody else got money on Crabb as next leader?0 -
EU sponsored IFS talking Britain down again. Craven stuff.ThreeQuidder said:
"Could".Scott_P said:@GregHands: IFS today saying a vote to leave could result in up to a 40bn hit to the public finances in 2019/20 - almost the size of the defence budget.
More scaremongering bollocks.0 -
Just because a bunch of nobs hanker for Ye Grand olde Days of Empire doesn't necessarily make them right CharlesCharles said:
And the Lord High Chancellor, don't forget him!RobD said:
Leave have the Lord High Constable of England on their side.. they don't need no army officersrcs1000 said:
You should've trust anything anyone says unconditionally! I suspect Remain will find their own set of army officers next week, just as Leave found their own economists and business people.blackburn63 said:btw I see Army officers favour Brexit.
Do I trust them or "neutral" economists?
I believe the Earl Marischal is also in favour of Leave.
edit: the Lord High Admiral hasn't declared for either side, but I have a sneaking suspicion... 0 -
YouGov - Only 13 per cent think leaving the EU would harm house prices. Almost half (48 per cent) say it would make no difference.0
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Waste of time Morris. Andrea Leadsom is no leader material and not only that; she has the eyes of Macmillan. Ugh !!!!Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Interesting tip. Hmm. I put a little on it, but would she even stand?0 -
Miss DiCanio, the IFS is ropey.
I still remember them lambasting an early Osborne Budget for being regressive. Which might be legitimate criticism, except their reasoning was that he anticipated cutting welfare spending. Because more people would be in work and off benefits...
Mr. Borough, might Crabb lack experience? I know he's the new DWP chap, but he only got the job recently.0 -
FPT
At this stage of last year's GE - the 10/10 indicator with ICM and Comres was within 2% of final turnout.dr_spyn said:Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 8s8 seconds ago
Interesting that @nicholaswatt seems to think that turnout is forecast as low in the referendum. Betting markets now at 63.5% and rising
Also, Shadsy's comment about more money going on Leave probably reflects the growing doubts about telephone polling.0 -
Airstrip One.TOPPING said:
I think they're doing away with the term "Britain".MikeK said:
Well @Plato, me old darlin' let me tell you that under a federal EU Britain (so named) won't be allowed a separate standing armed forces. The British Army will just be a couple of divisions inside an EU wide army. Probably taking orders from German or Benelux generals who have no experience of actual battle since WW2, too.Plato_Says said:Leave playing the Army brass card today - most amusingly, Sir Michael Rose is leading the charge.
"Britain's Armed Forces would be more effective outside the European Union, 12 former generals and admirals claim today...The retired senior military officers are backing Veterans for Britain, a campaign for a Leave vote in the EU referendum aimed at serving and former military personnel.
They reject the idea that a Brexit would have a negative impact on the UK's defence and security, saying that Nato is responsible for peace across Europe... [Rose] comments will humiliate the Prime Minister because Sir Michael's name was 'mistakenly' added to a letter orchestrated by Downing Street earlier this year which promoted the EU.
In an individual statement, he says today: 'Sovereignty and defence are indivisible. European law, in my view, has already seriously undermined UK's combat effectiveness as a result of the intrusion of European law into national law. And today, our servicemen and women are in danger of becoming no more than civilians in uniform.'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3607761/Generals-fight-Brexit-forces-stronger-outside-not-fit-purpose-EU-says-dozen-former-brass.html#ixzz49e8GYhIu
They are just going to use "Outpost 28".0 -
Doesn't make them wrong either.Monksfield said:
Just because a bunch of nobs hanker for Ye Grand olde Days of Empire doesn't necessarily make them right CharlesCharles said:
And the Lord High Chancellor, don't forget him!RobD said:
Leave have the Lord High Constable of England on their side.. they don't need no army officersrcs1000 said:
You should've trust anything anyone says unconditionally! I suspect Remain will find their own set of army officers next week, just as Leave found their own economists and business people.blackburn63 said:btw I see Army officers favour Brexit.
Do I trust them or "neutral" economists?
I believe the Earl Marischal is also in favour of Leave.
edit: the Lord High Admiral hasn't declared for either side, but I have a sneaking suspicion...0 -
LOLPlato_Says said:
#WhyDontYouEffOffAndJoinTheKippersSean_F said:
Yougov could do a pollAlanbrooke said:
It doesn't appear to have occurred to them.Sean_F said:
So many things have been said by Tories about each other which cannot be unsaid, when this is over.Alanbrooke said:
ROFLScott_P said:
Whistle to keep your spirits upblackburn63 said:it is Remain, odds on favourites since the start, who are panicking.
It's not Remain who have abandoned their entire economic message to focus exclusively onracismimmigration
most pathetic post of the morning
I suppose it will be jackboots and the KKK in Lederhosen by lunchtime
so this post is now Tory racist bastards ?
LOL keep em coming, nobody makes the Tories seem more shit than you do.
You have wonder just how stupid this can get.
"You're a Conservative activist/member/supporter who gets called a racist for supporting Brexit by other Tories.
Does this make you:-
1. More likely to vote Conservative in the future,
2. Less likely to vote Conservative in the future."
Nice thought but the LEAVErs are more akin to Momentum... after all at least Cameron has (sort of) won two elections0 -
Just read a Times report that Team Hillary are considering Dangerous Donald and Loser. One clearly isn't true, the other has far too many syllables and reminds me of Cameron as Gene Hunt.DavidL said:
He's just brilliant at this name tag thing. It really shapes the debate for him.Tim_B said:For those who puzzled over the meaning on the previous thread of SWAG, it stands for - Scientific Wild Ass Guess.
I just watched highlights of Trump's speech in New Mexico, and we have a new nickname. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who hugely bigged up her alleged Cherokee Indian heritage until it was recently debunked, is now being called Pocahontas by Trump.
That will stick.
Who are these muppets?0 -
0
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Could be worse - a potato.MikeK said:
Waste of time Morris. Andrea Leadsom is no leader material and not only that; she has the eyes of Macmillan. Ugh !!!!Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Interesting tip. Hmm. I put a little on it, but would she even stand?0 -
Weeks of Remainian propaganda above the line will have that effect.rottenborough said:
Morning all,MikeSmithson said:What a happy family we are this morning.
Blimey, Mike's right. It's getting tetchy on here.
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Before I go, I must tell you of a minor coup I achieved yesterday, because for me they come few and far between.
I bet on 3 cross EW doubles and a treble yesterday and they all came home @ 11/1, 8/1 and 7/2. But I only had £2 EW on every double and the treble. Still not bad.
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Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.0 -
Cameron claiming yesterday that post-Brexit we won't be able to own holiday homes abroad was a total corker.ThreeQuidder said:
Weeks of Remainian propaganda above the line will have that effect.rottenborough said:
Morning all,MikeSmithson said:What a happy family we are this morning.
Blimey, Mike's right. It's getting tetchy on here.0 -
Absolutely. In a huge row with our main competitor all the young'uns had hatched lots of noisy, devious plans to shame and embarrass the opposition.Alanbrooke said:
On day one of marketing communication I was taught never slag your competitors off becasue soon that will become the industry you work in and eventually yourself.Plato_Says said:
The sledging on here by a small number of Tories has been remarkable. I just scroll by them now. I'm not sure what point they're trying to prove. It wasn't this bad before GE2015 with Tory vs Labour.Alanbrooke said:
It doesn't appear to have occurred to them.Sean_F said:
So many things have been said by Tories about each other which cannot be unsaid, when this is over.Alanbrooke said:
ROFLScott_P said:
Whistle to keep your spirits upblackburn63 said:it is Remain, odds on favourites since the start, who are panicking.
It's not Remain who have abandoned their entire economic message to focus exclusively onracismimmigration
most pathetic post of the morning
I suppose it will be jackboots and the KKK in Lederhosen by lunchtime
so this post is now Tory racist bastards ?
LOL keep em coming, nobody makes the Tories seem more shit than you do.
You have wonder just how stupid this can get.
The head of the company shut it all down.
'Two whores brawling in public will do none of us any good'......0 -
MikeSmithson said:
What a happy family we are this morning.
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On the basis of a lie.Freggles said:
LOLPlato_Says said:
#WhyDontYouEffOffAndJoinTheKippersSean_F said:
Yougov could do a pollAlanbrooke said:
It doesn't appear to have occurred to them.Sean_F said:
So many things have been said by Tories about each other which cannot be unsaid, when this is over.Alanbrooke said:
ROFLScott_P said:
Whistle to keep your spirits upblackburn63 said:it is Remain, odds on favourites since the start, who are panicking.
It's not Remain who have abandoned their entire economic message to focus exclusively onracismimmigration
most pathetic post of the morning
I suppose it will be jackboots and the KKK in Lederhosen by lunchtime
so this post is now Tory racist bastards ?
LOL keep em coming, nobody makes the Tories seem more shit than you do.
You have wonder just how stupid this can get.
"You're a Conservative activist/member/supporter who gets called a racist for supporting Brexit by other Tories.
Does this make you:-
1. More likely to vote Conservative in the future,
2. Less likely to vote Conservative in the future."
Nice thought but the LEAVErs are more akin to Momentum... after all at least Cameron has (sort of) won two elections0 -
Mr. Freggles, except I haven't seen polling putting Momentum on around 50% amongst the electorate...0
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That can't be true.Plato_Says said:
YouGov in Times have 2015 Tories at 65% Leave.dugarbandier said:
Indeed not. Most of them are united in supporting BrexitScott_P said:
@jameskirkup: Most Tories aren't at war over #Brexit.
We've had a thread on one poll that had the Tories breaking for Remain and no correction0 -
They're blaming this on Supermarkets - I'm not sure "joyous, civic" SINDYRef didn't play a part:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14513763.Rise_in_amount_Scots_drink_in_a_year_prompts_fresh_call_for_minimum_alcohol_pricing0 -
I've watched the Remain youth video. Oh dear me. It reminds me of a tampon advert - with lots of young women doing active stuff like surfin', chillin' and clubbin'. Cos they like votin' and livin' in the EU.
Is there anything worse than politicians trying to be hip?
You can see it here http://votin.co.uk/0 -
Outpost 28, or the 51st State.TOPPING said:
I think they're doing away with the term "Britain".MikeK said:
Well @Plato, me old darlin' let me tell you that under a federal EU Britain (so named) won't be allowed a separate standing armed forces. The British Army will just be a couple of divisions inside an EU wide army. Probably taking orders from German or Benelux generals who have no experience of actual battle since WW2, too.Plato_Says said:Leave playing the Army brass card today - most amusingly, Sir Michael Rose is leading the charge.
"Britain's Armed Forces would be more effective outside the European Union, 12 former generals and admirals claim today...The retired senior military officers are backing Veterans for Britain, a campaign for a Leave vote in the EU referendum aimed at serving and former military personnel.
They reject the idea that a Brexit would have a negative impact on the UK's defence and security, saying that Nato is responsible for peace across Europe... [Rose] comments will humiliate the Prime Minister because Sir Michael's name was 'mistakenly' added to a letter orchestrated by Downing Street earlier this year which promoted the EU.
In an individual statement, he says today: 'Sovereignty and defence are indivisible. European law, in my view, has already seriously undermined UK's combat effectiveness as a result of the intrusion of European law into national law. And today, our servicemen and women are in danger of becoming no more than civilians in uniform.'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3607761/Generals-fight-Brexit-forces-stronger-outside-not-fit-purpose-EU-says-dozen-former-brass.html#ixzz49e8GYhIu
They are just going to use "Outpost 28".
51 > 28... no contest 0 -
Morning Jack.JackW said:
Sean - Who spikes your ire within the ranks of UKIP ? ....Sean_F said:It certainly demonstrates that one's most bitter and inveterate hatreds are always reserved for members of one's own side.
Have been really let-down by all the latest outpourings from your ARSE!
The stench of defeat is in the air for LEAVE and it's not good enough!0 -
Miss Plato, leaving the EU will cause menstrual cycles to happen twice as often. Men will start ovulating in the street. Alien probing will leave millions with xenobabies.
Edited extra bit: added an S. I'm given to understand the menstrual cycle occurs more than once...0 -
You could sell tickets, though!CarlottaVance said:
Absolutely. In a huge row with our main competitor all the young'uns had hatched lots of noisy, devious plans to shame and embarrass the opposition.Alanbrooke said:
On day one of marketing communication I was taught never slag your competitors off becasue soon that will become the industry you work in and eventually yourself.Plato_Says said:
The sledging on here by a small number of Tories has been remarkable. I just scroll by them now. I'm not sure what point they're trying to prove. It wasn't this bad before GE2015 with Tory vs Labour.Alanbrooke said:
It doesn't appear to have occurred to them.Sean_F said:
So many things have been said by Tories about each other which cannot be unsaid, when this is over.Alanbrooke said:
ROFLScott_P said:
Whistle to keep your spirits upblackburn63 said:it is Remain, odds on favourites since the start, who are panicking.
It's not Remain who have abandoned their entire economic message to focus exclusively onracismimmigration
most pathetic post of the morning
I suppose it will be jackboots and the KKK in Lederhosen by lunchtime
so this post is now Tory racist bastards ?
LOL keep em coming, nobody makes the Tories seem more shit than you do.
You have wonder just how stupid this can get.
The head of the company shut it all down.
'Two whores brawling in public will do none of us any good'......0 -
Well Michael Gove is the Lord High Chancellor.Monksfield said:
Just because a bunch of nobs hanker for Ye Grand olde Days of Empire doesn't necessarily make them right CharlesCharles said:
And the Lord High Chancellor, don't forget him!RobD said:
Leave have the Lord High Constable of England on their side.. they don't need no army officersrcs1000 said:
You should've trust anything anyone says unconditionally! I suspect Remain will find their own set of army officers next week, just as Leave found their own economists and business people.blackburn63 said:btw I see Army officers favour Brexit.
Do I trust them or "neutral" economists?
I believe the Earl Marischal is also in favour of Leave.
edit: the Lord High Admiral hasn't declared for either side, but I have a sneaking suspicion...
Fitzallen-Howard will carry Norfolk with him and make inroads into the Catholic community.
I don't think that the Duke of Edinburgh has declared though...0 -
Is Roger working for REMAIN?Plato_Says said:I've watched the Remain youth video. Oh dear me. It reminds me of a tampon advert
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Polling suggests that 10-15% of Tories from 2015 have switched to UKIP. They will be almost all supporters of Brexit, leaving current Tories relatively more likely to support Remain.Charles said:
That can't be true.Plato_Says said:
YouGov in Times have 2015 Tories at 65% Leave.dugarbandier said:
Indeed not. Most of them are united in supporting BrexitScott_P said:
@jameskirkup: Most Tories aren't at war over #Brexit.
We've had a thread on one poll that had the Tories breaking for Remain and no correction0 -
If they were good-looking.OldKingCole said:
You could sell tickets, though!CarlottaVance said:
Absolutely. In a huge row with our main competitor all the young'uns had hatched lots of noisy, devious plans to shame and embarrass the opposition.Alanbrooke said:
On day one of marketing communication I was taught never slag your competitors off becasue soon that will become the industry you work in and eventually yourself.Plato_Says said:
The sledging on here by a small number of Tories has been remarkable. I just scroll by them now. I'm not sure what point they're trying to prove. It wasn't this bad before GE2015 with Tory vs Labour.Alanbrooke said:
It doesn't appear to have occurred to them.Sean_F said:
So many things have been said by Tories about each other which cannot be unsaid, when this is over.Alanbrooke said:
ROFLScott_P said:
Whistle to keep your spirits upblackburn63 said:it is Remain, odds on favourites since the start, who are panicking.
It's not Remain who have abandoned their entire economic message to focus exclusively onracismimmigration
most pathetic post of the morning
I suppose it will be jackboots and the KKK in Lederhosen by lunchtime
so this post is now Tory racist bastards ?
LOL keep em coming, nobody makes the Tories seem more shit than you do.
You have wonder just how stupid this can get.
The head of the company shut it all down.
'Two whores brawling in public will do none of us any good'......0 -
Just watched some blatant bias from BBC breakfast. Talking about subsidies for industry and the whole segment was based on 'We get this money from the EU and it's really helpful but they (leave) want to take it away'. This despite the previous section explaining how we are net contributors overall.0
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Charles: a female compliance officer - or, even better, a fearsome female lawyer/investigator - is exactly whom we should have in charge.Charles said:Yes, she's good. But Osborne hates her, which is why her career has been held back so far (she rejected his patronage early on). But do we really want a former compliance officer in charge...
As an aside, I caught up with a board director of one of the credit rating agencies yesterday (we were going the same way on the tube). Never come across someone so terrified about Brexit. He's worried that his kids - who are completely integrated into Europe-wide businesses - just don't seem to be too bothered to vote.
He's also picking up signs that the "old landed families" are coming out for Leave (in his view based on some romantic notion of a glorious past - he doesn't think that the Brits are natural entrepreneurs any way).
But he also mentioned that if we engaged fully in Europe we'd get a lot - Germany needs us to see off the French. But with the half-in-half-out approach we just p1ss everyone off.
(p.s. another patrimonial came out yesterday for Leave. That means that Devon and Hampshire and the working family are all for Leave; Paris for Remain [but they don't have a vote, only the right to make observations] only Wiltshire to come. They've been quiet on the matter, but I wouldn't be surprised if they backed Leave in the end) 0 -
As a fellow Warwick graduate I wish Andrea Leadsom well and if it is Leave she could have a chance but I am sticking to a narrow Remain and Philip Hammond0
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Only in werewolves.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, leaving the EU will cause menstrual cycles to happen twice as often. Men will start ovulating in the street. Alien probing will leave millions with xenobabies.
Edited extra bit: added an S. I'm given to understand the menstrual cycle occurs more than once...0 -
LOL at the IFS bring added to the list of EU stooges!0
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I'm not betting on turnout.chestnut said:FPT
At this stage of last year's GE - the 10/10 indicator with ICM and Comres was within 2% of final turnout.dr_spyn said:Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 8s8 seconds ago
Interesting that @nicholaswatt seems to think that turnout is forecast as low in the referendum. Betting markets now at 63.5% and rising
Also, Shadsy's comment about more money going on Leave probably reflects the growing doubts about telephone polling.
I simply have no idea. Between 50% and 65% is as good as I can say.0 -
Ladbrokes might be taking more and bigger bets on leave, but even more money is piling onto remain.chestnut said:FPT
Shadsy's comment about more money going on Leave probably reflects the growing doubts about telephone polling.dr_spyn said:Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 8s8 seconds ago
Interesting that @nicholaswatt seems to think that turnout is forecast as low in the referendum. Betting markets now at 63.5% and rising
Probably >5x as much if the odds, and the odds changes are anything to go by.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result/bet-history/leave/today
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That's the Andrea Ledsom whose first question after being appointed minister for energy and climate change was "Is climate change real?" despite having spent years previously campaigning against onshore windfarms. So she clearly has the ability to argue confidently on a subject in which she is completely clueless. Is this a good trait for a future leader?0
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Are you saying that the IFS isn't funded by the EU?Richard_Nabavi said:LOL at the IFS bring added to the list of EU stooges!
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A little-known European Directive requires all word completion apps to complete any word beginning with An with -gela. It's all about being good neighbours, y'know.MikeSmithson said:My word completion app keeps substituting Angela for Andrea which is my excuse for getting her name wrong when I first published. That's now been fixed. Thanks to those who pointed out the error
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I am starting to think turnout may go 65+%.0
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Good to see someone on the remain side still has a sense of humour.NickPalmer said:
A little-known European Directive requires all word completion apps to complete any word beginning with An with -gela. It's all about being good neighbours, y'know.MikeSmithson said:My word completion app keeps substituting Angela for Andrea which is my excuse for getting her name wrong when I first published. That's now been fixed. Thanks to those who pointed out the error
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Well, somebody somewhere has seriously fucked up their polling....MikeSmithson said:
REMAIN is 20% ahead with some pollstersblackburn63 said:
If Remain were 20 points clear your post would have some veracity, they're not, so it doesn't. In fact its the reverse, it is Remain, odds on favourites since the start, who are panicking.Scott_P said:@DAaronovitch: Now Leave insults the Institute for Fiscal Studies for warning about the economic effects of Brexit. Note, it doesn't disagree, it insults.
@PickardJE: Out campaign is undermining their own credibility by dismissing the highly respected, neutral IFS as stooges of Brussels.
If Leave is the obvious, logical, Patriotic choice, why are they running such a completely shit campaign?
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Are there any other requirements?FeersumEnjineeya said:That's the Andrea Ledsom whose first question after being appointed minister for energy and climate change was "Is climate change real?" despite having spent years previously campaigning against onshore windfarms. So she clearly has the ability to argue confidently on a subject in which she is completely clueless. Is this a good trait for a future leader?
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IIRC, Redwood on Sky noted the client for this study ESRC - a quango funded by BIS.ThreeQuidder said:
Are you saying that the IFS isn't funded by the EU?Richard_Nabavi said:LOL at the IFS bring added to the list of EU stooges!
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Mr. Mark, worth noting there's always a chance of poll just being rogue.
In psychometric testing a p value of 0.95 is the target, which means there's a 5% chance of any given response just being an unrepresentative individual/group.
With the number of polls we've got, some will just be rogue.0 -
On a positive note, the Blue-eyed Ground Dove, thought extinct since 1941, has been rediscovered in Brazil.
EDIT: Opinion pollsters are now trying to assess how it had fallen off their contact sheets for 75 years...0 -
Excellent article from Rafael Behr on Labour:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/25/labour-answers-lie-in-losses-not-victories
And a fascinating nugget:
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.0 -
Don't we normally assume 1:20 is rogue. Until the result, we've no idea if any were near the mark - or a lucky guess on the day. ICM's 14pt variance phone vs online was the most telling.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Mark, worth noting there's always a chance of poll just being rogue.
In psychometric testing a p value of 0.95 is the target, which means there's a 5% chance of any given response just being an unrepresentative individual/group.
With the number of polls we've got, some will just be rogue.0 -
No, they're controlled by the Bildeberg Group.Richard_Nabavi said:LOL at the IFS bring added to the list of EU stooges!
0 -
That variance is replicated with ORB as well who will have to explain to either the Telegraph or the Independent why they have sold one of them a dud polling method in a month's time.Plato_Says said:
Don't we normally assume 1:20 is rogue. Until the result, we've no idea if any were near the mark - or a lucky guess on the day. ICM's 14pt variance phone vs online was the most telling.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Mark, worth noting there's always a chance of poll just being rogue.
In psychometric testing a p value of 0.95 is the target, which means there's a 5% chance of any given response just being an unrepresentative individual/group.
With the number of polls we've got, some will just be rogue.0 -
Nothing to what the Scottish Tory managed until this year.MarqueeMark said:On a positive note, the Blue-eyed Ground Dove, thought extinct since 1941, has been rediscovered in Brazil.
EDIT: Opinion pollsters are now trying to assess how it had fallen off their contact sheets for 75 years...0 -
Do you really need a statistician to state the bleedin' obvious? Mind, it also says something about the officers who produced the original opinion.CarlottaVance said:Excellent article from Rafael Behr on Labour:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/25/labour-answers-lie-in-losses-not-victories
And a fascinating nugget:
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.
Who was it who said “Mititary Intelligence is a contradiction!"0 -
Other interesting bits from YouGov (via the non-paywall summary in RedBox):
Do you trust them on Europe? Boris 31%, Corbyn 28, Farage 22, Cameron 18, Gove 16
Would you trust them as PM? Boris 31, Osborne 11.
0 -
That story and similar ones is in an entertaining book I read recently called the mathematics of every day life. It had a sub title of how not to be wrong but I think that bit was a little oversold on my experience.CarlottaVance said:Excellent article from Rafael Behr on Labour:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/25/labour-answers-lie-in-losses-not-victories
And a fascinating nugget:
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.0 -
no, they're there to make the dubious respectable by sticking a p-value on it (or a MOE)OldKingCole said:
Do you really need a statistician to state the bleedin' obvious?0 -
Those sniffing around my ARSE for fragrant outpourings for LEAVE have indeed been gravely disappointed. The sweet smell of Spring is in the air and will likely REMAIN so.GIN1138 said:Morning Jack.
Have been really let-down by all the latest outpourings from your ARSE!
The stench of defeat is in the air for LEAVE and it's not good enough!
0 -
I thought it was the Reptilian Aryans?Sean_F said:
No, they're controlled by the Bildeberg Group.Richard_Nabavi said:LOL at the IFS bring added to the list of EU stooges!
As an aside, the IFS was created by my old boss (Nils Taube) to provide a job for Dick Taverne, after he lost the seat of Lincoln. Dick Taverne went on to write a pretty good book about the lack of respect for the scientific method by our politicians (and the media): The March of Unreason.0 -
IFS:
The mechanical effect of leaving the EU would be to improve the UK’s public finances by in the order of £8 billion – assuming the UK did not subsequently sign up to EEA or an alternative EU trade deal that involved contributions to the EU budget. However, there is an overwhelming consensus among those who have made estimates of the consequences of Brexit for national income that it would reduce national income in both the short and long runs. The economic reasons for this – increased uncertainty, higher costs of trade and reduced FDI – are clear. The only significant exception to this consensus is ‘Economists for Brexit’.
http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/comms/r116.pdf0 -
Lloyd George's War Memoirs contain an item in the Index "Military Mind; narrowness of, regards thinking as a form of mutiny."OldKingCole said:
Do you really need a statistician to state the bleedin' obvious? Mind, it also says something about the officers who produced the original opinion.CarlottaVance said:Excellent article from Rafael Behr on Labour:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/25/labour-answers-lie-in-losses-not-victories
And a fascinating nugget:
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.
Who was it who said “Mititary Intelligence is a contradiction!"0 -
It's about all the past 3 PM's have had going for them.FeersumEnjineeya said:That's the Andrea Ledsom whose first question after being appointed minister for energy and climate change was "Is climate change real?" despite having spent years previously campaigning against onshore windfarms. So she clearly has the ability to argue confidently on a subject in which she is completely clueless. Is this a good trait for a future leader?
0 -
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit. And I think the idea of a poster with merkel and Cameron in her top pocket would be brilliant.chestnut said:Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.0 -
Sounds familiar.
"Some Downing Street aides these days resemble British riflemen at Rorke’s Drift, crouched behind makeshift barricades and waiting for an assault by massed ranks of Conservative Eurosceptics driven to fury over the referendum and planning to overrun the leadership after the vote.
This fear helps explain why No 10 is prosecuting the referendum campaign with such aggression. Some of David Cameron’s team think mere victory is not enough: they must win in such a manner as to destroy those who oppose them, and thus render them unable to threaten the PM after the vote. The approach calls to mind Gore Vidal: “It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/24/despite-david-camerons-paranoia-most-tories-dont-want-to-go-to-w/0 -
Good story, except e.g. later Spitfires (& many other WWII fighters I expect) had most of their armour round the pilot & self-sealing fuel tanks. An aircraft with a bullet riddled or incinerated pilot was just as unlikely to return to base as one with a riddled engine, with the added disadvantage of a probably dead, expensively trained pilot.CarlottaVance said:Excellent article from Rafael Behr on Labour:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/25/labour-answers-lie-in-losses-not-victories
And a fascinating nugget:
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.0 -
Robert if you can wrench yourself away from your duties at Finchley Road might you gives us your appreciation of the IFS report?rcs1000 said:I thought it was the Reptilian Aryans?
As an aside, the IFS was created by my old boss (Nils Taube) to provide a job for Dick Taverne, after he lost the seat of Lincoln. Dick Taverne went on to write a pretty good book about the lack of respect for the scientific method by our politicians (and the media): The March of Unreason.
0 -
Vote Leave are in no position to freeze anything, temporary or otherwise.kjohnw said:
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit. And I think the idea of a poster with merkel and Cameron in her top pocket would be brilliant.chestnut said:Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.0 -
Well, that's wrong. Both Open Europe nor Capital Economics agree with that for a start.CarlottaVance said:IFS:
The mechanical effect of leaving the EU would be to improve the UK’s public finances by in the order of £8 billion – assuming the UK did not subsequently sign up to EEA or an alternative EU trade deal that involved contributions to the EU budget. However, there is an overwhelming consensus among those who have made estimates of the consequences of Brexit for national income that it would reduce national income in both the short and long runs. The economic reasons for this – increased uncertainty, higher costs of trade and reduced FDI – are clear. The only significant exception to this consensus is ‘Economists for Brexit’.
http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/comms/r116.pdf0 -
If they did that I would vote remain in a heartbeat. Right now significant parts of that budget is being spent on refugee camps which is not only the moral thing to do but keeps them in the near abroad of Syria rather than here.kjohnw said:
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit.chestnut said:Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.0 -
But they’ll create darkness at noon if they win. Cameron says so (must have, somewhere)Luckyguy1983 said:
Vote Leave are in no position to freeze anything, temporary or otherwise.kjohnw said:
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit. And I think the idea of a poster with merkel and Cameron in her top pocket would be brilliant.chestnut said:Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.0 -
It was USAF bombers - bigger fuselage and enginesTheuniondivvie said:
Good story, except e.g. later Spitfires (& many other WWII fighters I expect) had most of their armour round the pilot & the fuel tanks. An aircraft with a bullet riddled or incinerated pilot was just as unlikely to return to base as one with a riddled engine, with the added disadvantage of a probably dead, expensively trained pilot.CarlottaVance said:Excellent article from Rafael Behr on Labour:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/25/labour-answers-lie-in-losses-not-victories
And a fascinating nugget:
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.0 -
Can any PB polling experts explain to me in broad terms how weighting works - sorry for being a polling dunce. I understand that people are weighted according to likelihood to vote, and it deals with certain groups being overrepresented in the sample etc. But I don't understand how its application affects the final numbers. Are some people just removed from the survey?0
-
"IFS chief says warnings not linked to EU cash
Paul Johnson, the IFS director, has admitted 10 per cent of the body’s funding comes from the EU but said the money had no “impact” on its forecasts for what happened after Brexit."
Of course not.0 -
Yes, aside from the moral aspect, the foreign aid budget is the carrot that accompanies our military stick. In fact, you could argue that foreign aid should be considered to be a component of our defence spending.DavidL said:
If they did that I would vote remain in a heartbeat. Right now significant parts of that budget is being spent on refugee camps which is not only the moral thing to do but keeps them in the near abroad of Syria rather than here.kjohnw said:
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit.chestnut said:Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.0 -
But it is a sensible conflation: aid to foreigners...foreigners coming over here taking all the £250/hour plumbing jobs...etc...Luckyguy1983 said:
Vote Leave are in no position to freeze anything, temporary or otherwise.kjohnw said:
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit. And I think the idea of a poster with merkel and Cameron in her top pocket would be brilliant.chestnut said:Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
Edit: and I suppose it is only a matter of time (or have they done so already) before someone blames the EU for the 0.7%, largest in the G7..0 -
To be honest, I haven't read it. I'm spending my morning reading about proposed changes to the Italian bankruptcy laws... And what that might mean (or otherwise) for NPLs.JackW said:
Robert if you can wrench yourself away from your duties at Finchley Road might you gives us your appreciation of the IFS report?rcs1000 said:I thought it was the Reptilian Aryans?
As an aside, the IFS was created by my old boss (Nils Taube) to provide a job for Dick Taverne, after he lost the seat of Lincoln. Dick Taverne went on to write a pretty good book about the lack of respect for the scientific method by our politicians (and the media): The March of Unreason.0 -
Ok, I've researched and worked it out a bit more.Luckyguy1983 said:Can any PB polling experts explain to me in broad terms how weighting works - sorry for being a polling dunce. I understand that people are weighted according to likelihood to vote, and it deals with certain groups being overrepresented in the sample etc. But I don't understand how its application affects the final numbers. Are some people just removed from the survey?
0 -
Hmm, once upon a time you assured me that you would never engage in personal attacks.Casino_Royale said:
You post dickish things, you write dickish things and you behave in a dickish way.Scott_P said:
Just the sort of reasoned argument and debate I have come to expect from my fans, who keep boasting about how clever they are.Casino_Royale said:Scott is just a dick.
Oh dear.
So you are, in short, a bit of a dick.
But that's ok - I'm sure you have some fans.
Somewhere.0 -
They are in a position to point out that:Luckyguy1983 said:
Vote Leave are in no position to freeze anything, temporary or otherwise.kjohnw said:
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit. And I think the idea of a poster with merkel and Cameron in her top pocket would be brilliant.chestnut said:Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
a) The money is there and it is plentiful;
b) The government have the power to allocate it;
What kind of government would refuse to use it for it's own people in a doom-laden scenario?0 -
Another leftie leader article obsessed by what sort of school she went to.
Honestly nobody to the right of Ed Miliband gives a toss.
0 -
I see Cameron is off to Japan for the G7.
How much do we want to bet on a unified message being given by *all* G7 leaders warning against Brexit on the steps of the conference, that'll receive frontline billing on BBC TV and on its news website?
Looking forward to that on Friday.0 -
There is also a simpler - and equally plausible - explanation: that a convincing Remain win is needed if the issue is to be closed down. A narrow Remain win is possibly the worst result, and not just from a Tory party perspective.Plato_Says said:Sounds familiar.
"Some Downing Street aides these days resemble British riflemen at Rorke’s Drift, crouched behind makeshift barricades and waiting for an assault by massed ranks of Conservative Eurosceptics driven to fury over the referendum and planning to overrun the leadership after the vote.
This fear helps explain why No 10 is prosecuting the referendum campaign with such aggression. Some of David Cameron’s team think mere victory is not enough: they must win in such a manner as to destroy those who oppose them, and thus render them unable to threaten the PM after the vote. The approach calls to mind Gore Vidal: “It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/24/despite-david-camerons-paranoia-most-tories-dont-want-to-go-to-w/
The reason this debate (sic) has become so bitchy and personal is that it feels like a debate about the future of the Tory party rather than a debate about Britain and the EU. A great pity. I have read more illuminating comments about the EU from @rcs100 or @CasinoRoyale (on his blog) or @Topping than anything I've heard from either the Remain or Leave camps.
For the amount of money which has been spent it should have been possible to get some decent psychiatrists and group therapists and the rest of us could have been left alone.
Either that or a proper debate.....
I must go now: I can hear porkers preparing for take-off.........0 -
Unrelated to the topic, and procrastinating a little [bit sleepy so work's slow], but it'll be interesting to see what comes out at E3 this year. Some reckon Elder Scrolls VI (I'd be very surprised given Fallout 4 was just last year), and 'Dragon Age 4' [though whether that means Tactics or an RPG isn't certain].
There's also the new consoles from PlayStation/Xbox. Nintendo doesn't really do E3, but the NX will be announced in the nearish future, I'd guess.
I put up a ramble about the new and improved Survival Mode in Fallout 4 here, for those interested: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/fallout-4s-survival-mode.html0 -
Well that's all right then.Casino_Royale said:"IFS chief says warnings not linked to EU cash
Paul Johnson, the IFS director, has admitted 10 per cent of the body’s funding comes from the EU but said the money had no “impact” on its forecasts for what happened after Brexit."
Of course not.0 -
Hmm, on a cost/benefit/performance analysis, putting heavy engine armour on a 4 engined bomber seems even less effective than on a single engine fighter. The B-17 could certainly fly on 2 engines if necessary.CarlottaVance said:
It was USAF bombers - bigger fuselage and enginesTheuniondivvie said:
Good story, except e.g. later Spitfires (& many other WWII fighters I expect) had most of their armour round the pilot & the fuel tanks. An aircraft with a bullet riddled or incinerated pilot was just as unlikely to return to base as one with a riddled engine, with the added disadvantage of a probably dead, expensively trained pilot.CarlottaVance said:Excellent article from Rafael Behr on Labour:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/25/labour-answers-lie-in-losses-not-victories
And a fascinating nugget:
Abraham Wald, a mathematician by trade, knew nothing about aviation or the British Labour party when he fled Austria in 1938. But he did know about numbers and his insights there can posthumously help Her Majesty’s opposition in 2016 – via a problem solved for the US Air Force in the 1940s.
The problem involved defensive armour. Planes needed it, but too much weighed them down. So officers surveyed battle-scarred aircraft returning from European sorties and tallied the bullet holes on different sections. They saw that the fuselage was taking the most flak, more than the engine, and were poised to stick the armour on accordingly – and erroneously.
By this time, Wald was working for the Statistical Research Group, a top-secret military geek squad. He saw the bullet-hole data and offered a life-saving insight: the prevalence of damaged fuselages meant reinforcement should go on the engines. It was obvious really. The planes with a pock-marked fuselage were the ones that made it back to base. The ones that went down testified by their very absence to the greater peril of hits to the engine.0 -
I believe it used to be part of the Foreign Office, and perhaps should still be. I don't think it's defence so much as diplomacy though.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, aside from the moral aspect, the foreign aid budget is the carrot that accompanies our military stick. In fact, you could argue that foreign aid should be considered to be a component of our defence spending.DavidL said:
If they did that I would vote remain in a heartbeat. Right now significant parts of that budget is being spent on refugee camps which is not only the moral thing to do but keeps them in the near abroad of Syria rather than here.kjohnw said:
Vote leave should announce a temporary freeze on foreign aid whilst we are negotiating our exit.chestnut said:Good luck to Cameron and Remain in trying to explain why they wouldn't use the best part of £25bn that currently goes on overseas aid and the EU on the British people in their doom laden scenarios.
I like Sunil's "EU isn't working" poster, and Leave could do with running the Miliband in Salmond's pocket one with Cameron and Frau Merkel.
The austerity one of shiny new bridges in Greece while our old folk struggle for care is another corker.
The issue I have with Foreign Aid, like the NHS, is confusing input (of cash) with output. What the vast flow of budget has in fact lead to is a department that is full of waste and overspending. New iPads don't help any hungry kids.0 -
Perhaps you should listen to Brexiter in Chief Andrew LilicoHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Well that's all right then.Casino_Royale said:"IFS chief says warnings not linked to EU cash
Paul Johnson, the IFS director, has admitted 10 per cent of the body’s funding comes from the EU but said the money had no “impact” on its forecasts for what happened after Brexit."
Of course not.
@andrew_lilico: The IFS - for whom I used to work - is not a paid up propaganda arm of the EU. I hope that clears that up.0
