politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two of the last four phone polls have REMAIN leading amongs
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two of the last four phone polls have REMAIN leading amongst 65+ voters
The big BREXIT polling news overnight is splashed on the front page of the Telegraph – that in its latest ORB referendum phone poll the over 65s are splitting for REMAIN.
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I still can't take ORB remotely seriously. 3% DK. Yeah, right.
However, they have not moved significantly over the past month.
I had not come across a single Leave supporter until yesterday.
....and as if by magic.
Still for anyone who missed it the last thread's a keeper. Some of the battiest posts that have ever appeared on PB.
sour winners don't make good reading.
Look on the bright side the papers are all about deep Tory splits.
Daves on track to win a referendum and lose his party.
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/2413368/images/o-MICHAEL-GOVE-facebook.jpg
Maybe you should go out and enjoy that sun and get rid of the sourness.
If you think there's no risk of Conservative rifts getting deeper then good luck with that.
As the closing date looms people are giving up on ever getting an answer. The great mystery is why no one is addressing this because if they don't it could be a rout.
Tories on this site have become increasingly shrill in their abuse towards each other.
Based on some of the positions taken to date I increasingly wonder how they can all stay in the same party.
If Leave lose, by whatever margin, I'm expecting the headbanger Leavers to have a complete and extended meltdown lasting years. We've already seen them oppose the budget and amend the Queen's Speech. That's only the start.
The EUref campaign has primarily been Tories tearing strips out of each other as the others watch amazed from the sidelines. Sensibly they're not interrupting their enemy as he makes a mistake.
As for working together I never underestimate the urge to cut off your nose to spite your face. I wouldn't be ble to say which side of the Tories will operate that principle first. the Cameroons are just as batchsit crazy atm as the IDSers.
Perhaps Frau Merkel can send in some Eurotanks to sort them out.
This EU boil had to be lanced ,. and it is being despite the pain it will cause.
If Leave loses, no matter how crushingly, its supporters will not take time to reflect on whether the public was right or whether the Leave message was unconvincing. They will simply conclude that the public got it wrong and look to overturn the democratic decision at the earliest possible opportunity.
Their interest in the democratic process has always been contingent on them actually winning.
Just as we shouldn't dismiss polls we don't like the result of, even if there are anomalies in the findings, so we shouldn't believe polls we do like the look of if there's no particular reason to do so above others.
We can certainly suggest reasons why phones might be better than online - activist participation influencing online panels - but if that were the case, one would have expected the May results to be further out than they were.
I'm in the 'not convinced' camp on either set of data. I do however think that Remain looks likely to win given the apparent lack of momentum within Leave and the usual reversion to the status quo among undecideds that occurs in referendums.
In the event of a Leave vote, British citizens living in other EU countries are strongly advised to return to the UK. It is anticipated that internment camps will be established in France, Spain, Portugal and other countries and UK citizens will be put under lock and key in the days following the referendum.
If you have children with a local partner, do not expect to see them ever again.
Inside the camps all food will be foreign muck and it will be impossible to get hold of a copy of the Daily Mail.
The UK government will make best endeavours to get any survivors deported back to blighty. However, you can expect to return to a land ravaged by famine, plague and a 1.8% decline in GDP.
Please note that this is a public information bulletin and is in no way connected to the Remain campaign.
Not foaming at the mouth.
Shortest winning manifesto ever.
2. we are not the tories
Voters won't take a leap into the dark. It's all very well saying 'Remain' is also a leap into the dark but in a binary contest the onus was on them to establish that. So far they've got nowhere near
is portillo still a tory?
It's field period ended 12th May. It isn't even included in the table above.
Junker will isolate and use sanctions against any far-right or populist governments http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/juncker-vows-to-block-the-far-right-with-new-powers-nq5r5tnqq
Cameron is a lucky politician, but he is also a ruthless one- most of the Tory Brexiteers should not be trusting to the Prime Minister's mercy when this is over. There will be some high profile forgiveness- (Gove?) but equally some high profile punishment (The PM thinks BoJo behaved dishonourably and will not trust him hereafter).
So the LeaveFinder General will be knocking on quite a few doors and if he thinks that the little MPs have been naughty and not nice, then there could be quite a lot of tears before bed time.
Cameron intends to be the leader of a Conservative Party of the moderate centre- it is where his every instinct places him, and Labour under Corbyn will be just as marginalised as the Lib Dems have been and the Tory Right will be.
A Remain vote will end the Tory civil war- with a comprehensive defeat for the right.
*Popcorn*
They number far more than 10 MPs.
But can a referendum be said to be fair in the mass media age when one side can legally outspend the other by more than two to one?
Although I was tentatively for Leave from the start and have become more so I was also always clear that this issue is simply not worth destroying the Conservative party for, especially at a time when Labour do not offer a coherent or even rational alternative to government. But that is indeed what has happened. The idea that people will kiss and make up after this very bruising encounter is frankly ridiculous.
Whichever side wins, we will have a minority government incapable of producing any meaningful reform or even governance limping all the way to the next election. The FTPA was always a particularly stupid idea and I fear we will pay a heavy price for that idiocy over the next 4 years. I think whichever side wins really should be encouraged to have an election as soon as possible and people can decide if they can reconcile themselves to that winning position and join in or find someone else to stand for.
If that reversion is true then, according to ORB, it's already happened and we're looking at (at best) a 56/44 result to Remain.
The Leave polling seems remarkably stable in the 39-42% bracket, with a couple of spikes. It's the Remain polling that seems to be much more variable (mainly contingent on how the don't knows break)
We could well be on course for a closer result than the SindyRef.
However, it's very unlikely - on current evidence - that on an MoE of +/- 3.5% the phone polls are so wrong as to miss a secret Leave win.
Both the Vote.Leave and Stronger.In meeting that I went to were mostly over 65's, as indeed most political meetings tend to be.
My impression is that the increasingly strident xenophobia of the Leave campaign is repelling undecideds and soft Leavers.
A second factor is the "Appeals to Authority" which tend to work better on the elderly than more truculent youth.
Moaning about straight bananas is one thing, but the EU is plainly not some sinister Hitlerian organisation. The accusation just does not ring true. One of the premises of advertising is that the message has to be plausible. Leave have failed here.
Still plenty of time for things to change, but IMO it is Leave's own campaign that is repelling voters.
Plus, as Crosby points out, yet again, in the Telegraph, turn-out remains the key. And Leavers are angry and will turn out.
The Remainers on here appear to be celebrating, I'd call that premature.
Downthread is a link to Portillo which I saw last night, saying the whole purpose of this govt is to save the career of the PM, it is a govt in paralysis.
I'd say he's spot on, and that the smug Remainers might want to conceal their joy a while longer, politician's opponents ALWAYS have the last laugh.
As turn-out is the absolute key then sending indirectly the message that you don't need to stir yourself from the sofa as it's in the bag is a disaster.
Anyway, two observations.
1. Up here in the north east it's still wall to wall hostility to the EU. I'm advised by my party and the cross party campaign to engage outers with "facts". When I point out that as a professional negotiator the last thing I would do is respond to an emotional objection with a factual response the suggestion is that we Need To Try Harder.
2. The Tories are a minority government. Assuming that none of the MPs under investigation over campaign expenses get Woolased it's still going to be a minority. A substantial number of MPs are spending all of their time on the media calling the PM and the Chancellor a liar. Saying the Treasury always gets its numbers wrong. That the Foreign Office can't be trusted. The idea that a Remain vote sees them all back on board touring the media saying that the PM tells the truth and that the Treasury have their numbers right is absurd - these people will never be back on board.
Cameron has torn the Conservative Party apart. A referendum solely to head off the UKIP threat and deliver a Tory government who's Queens Speech can only dream of offering such excitement as a cones hotline or citizens charter. An utter disaster of a tactic to deliver a government doing precisely nothing.
Bravo Dave, Bravo
If that parliament refuses to back down - they'll risk being stripped of voting rights and/or have funding blocked.
If I were VoteLeave - I'd be all over this.
New parties will evolve, others (ukip) will disappear, it will be a positive change and force politicians into more honesty and less spin.
That said if Remain wish to be complacent then I'm happy to let them be.
Miss Plato, one is not very surprised by the new anti-democratic powers of the Commission.
Be interested to know what the pro-Remain voters think of that.