politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON voters, it appears, are now more inclined to Dave’s EUR

System · May 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON voters, it appears, are now more inclined to Dave’s EURef position than Boris’s

That’s now looking outdated given the polls we’ve seen this week. I list some of the CON voter splits in my Tweet above which appear to show a picture that will make uncomfortable reading for OUT and reassurance for IN.

Read the full story here

tlg86 · May 2016

First like Leave when it matters.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.

Philip_Thompson · May 2016

Not surprised.

PClipp · May 2016

Philip_Thompson said:
Not surprised.

Not surprised either. The antics of Boris, Gove, Farage and Co are turning people off.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/734113678518329344

HYUFD · May 2016

Polls tend to show 2015 Tory voters slightly more likely to vote Leave than present Tory voters, probably as a few of them have now shifted to UKIP. However I have long held the view Tory voters, not Labour voters, are the key to the referendum. Leave needs a clear majority of Tory voters to back Leave to win, if it is close or Remain slightly ahead, as with Opinium tonight, Remain should edge it. If Remain do win by less than 60%, the challenge for the Tories will be keeping their Leave voters on board and preventing them from defecting to UKIP

tlg86 · May 2016

Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

Alanbrooke · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/734113678518329344

They're all just one big happy family.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.

surbiton · May 2016

Is there a betting market for a General Election in 2016 or 2017 ?

Scott_P · May 2016

@andyburnhammp: Who says Evertonians can't succeed in Manchester?! Great game @WayneRooney.

tlg86 · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.

Thank you. I still think Leave's best chance is either some Labour voters voting Leave to get rid of Cameron (unlikely) or just not bothering to vote at all (a possibility).

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/734113678518329344
They're all just one big happy family.

I've written a thread just for you tomorrow.

tlg86 · May 2016

Scott_P said:
@andyburnhammp: Who says Evertonians can't succeed in Manchester?! Great game @WayneRooney.

Burnham will be hanging from a lamp post if he's seen anywhere near Goodison Park after that remark!

ThreeQuidder · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.

Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · May 2016

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/734113678518329344
They're all just one big happy family.

Or an epidemic of Stockholm Syndrome.

ydoethur · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.

The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.

But he's also gained some similar, if not more, support elsewhere.

HYUFD · May 2016

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thank you. I still think Leave's best chance is either some Labour voters voting Leave to get rid of Cameron (unlikely) or just not bothering to vote at all (a possibility).

No, even if barely half of Labour voters turn out to vote for Remain if a plurality of Tory voters vote Remain then Remain win regardless

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.
The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.

I might have to deploy some of my what lessons can we learn from the AV referendum for this referendum pieces (plural) tomorrow

Alanbrooke · May 2016

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.

His reputation is sort of fkd

Lefties hate him on principle, the Centrists can't forgive him for trashing the LibDmes and half the righties despise him.

JackW · May 2016

Sky News reporting that "Man Utd are preparing to appoint Jose Mourinho as their new manager" probably as early as next week.

Beeb reporting same.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36351371

rcs1000 · May 2016

Alanbrooke said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
Hos reputation is sort of fkd

Lefties hate him on principle, the Centrists can't forgive him for trashing the LibDmes and half the righties despise him.

Three people have screwed themselves: Cameron, Osborne and Johnson. It's almost impossible to see either of the latter two as PM now. And it's hard to see Cameron having as much control over his destiny than seemed likely just 12 months ago.

Alanbrooke · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But he's also gained some similar, if not more, support elsewhere.

a surgical truss presumably to support his sagging cojones

Alanbrooke · May 2016

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
Hos reputation is sort of fkd

Lefties hate him on principle, the Centrists can't forgive him for trashing the LibDmes and half the righties despise him.
Three people have screwed themselves: Cameron, Osborne and Johnson. It's almost impossible to see either of the latter two as PM now. And it's hard to see Cameron having as much control over his destiny than seemed likely just 12 months ago.

So good news all round.

surbiton · May 2016

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thank you. I still think Leave's best chance is either some Labour voters voting Leave to get rid of Cameron (unlikely) or just not bothering to vote at all (a possibility).
No, even if barely half of Labour voters turn out to vote for Remain if a plurality of Tory voters vote Remain then Remain win regardless

Those Labour voters who will vote are more likely to vote REMAIN than those who will stay at home. Probably, 70 - 30. Many potential Labour Leave voters have already decamped to UKIP.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · May 2016

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.
The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.

The promised AV thread is just like the sign in the pub that promises 'free beer tomorrow'

rcs1000 · May 2016

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.

But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.
The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
The promised AV thread is just like the sign in the pub that promises 'free beer tomorrow'

I gave you an AV thread earlier on this year

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/

tlg86 · May 2016

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thank you. I still think Leave's best chance is either some Labour voters voting Leave to get rid of Cameron (unlikely) or just not bothering to vote at all (a possibility).
No, even if barely half of Labour voters turn out to vote for Remain if a plurality of Tory voters vote Remain then Remain win regardless
Those Labour voters who will vote are more likely to vote REMAIN than those who will stay at home. Probably, 70 - 30. Many potential Labour Leave voters have already decamped to UKIP.

Yes, so in this regard we need to think of Ukip being on 18% of the vote (as they are with Opinium) rather than the 12.5% that they got last year. And they will turnout (I hope).

Alanbrooke · May 2016

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.

Yup. But maybe it's tme the darned thing split up anyway and put some vigour back in to politics.

dr_spyn · May 2016

Scott_P said:
@andyburnhammp: Who says Evertonians can't succeed in Manchester?! Great game @WayneRooney.

Perhaps Burnham has forgotten about Jack Rodwell.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.
The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
The promised AV thread is just like the sign in the pub that promises 'free beer tomorrow'
I gave you an AV thread earlier on this year

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/

But like a crack cocaine addict we never remember the last hit, it's all about the next one.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

surbiton · May 2016

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.

Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.
The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
The promised AV thread is just like the sign in the pub that promises 'free beer tomorrow'
I gave you an AV thread earlier on this year

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
But like a crack cocaine addict we never remember the last hit, it's all about the next one.

I've got two AV referendum themed threads coming up during my next stint as guest editor, which starts in less than nine days time.

Alanbrooke · May 2016

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?

polluted

HYUFD · May 2016

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?

Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed

surbiton · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

Why UK ?

HYUFD · May 2016

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thank you. I still think Leave's best chance is either some Labour voters voting Leave to get rid of Cameron (unlikely) or just not bothering to vote at all (a possibility).
No, even if barely half of Labour voters turn out to vote for Remain if a plurality of Tory voters vote Remain then Remain win regardless
Those Labour voters who will vote are more likely to vote REMAIN than those who will stay at home. Probably, 70 - 30. Many potential Labour Leave voters have already decamped to UKIP.

Indeed, whether Labour voters vote or not will not determine the referendum, whether or not a majority of Tory voters back Leave will

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.
The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
The promised AV thread is just like the sign in the pub that promises 'free beer tomorrow'
I gave you an AV thread earlier on this year

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
But like a crack cocaine addict we never remember the last hit, it's all about the next one.
I've got two AV referendum themed threads coming up during my next stint as guest editor, which starts in less than nine days time.

Ah, Mike's booked one of his holidays when not much is expected to happen.
I shall look forward to them.

SandyRentool · May 2016

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
...If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed

No doubt their leadership campaigns will move into top gear.

(I'll get my coat)

dr_spyn · May 2016

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734120000651431940

Inflation to rise, £ to fall, and pestilence, war, disease later.

Alanbrooke · May 2016

dr_spyn said:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734120000651431940

Inflation to rise, £ to fall, and pestilence, war, disease later.

maybe we should just sack the bosses, they don't appear to be up to the mark.

VapidBilge · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

Hmm.

I think you'll find a lot of non-Turks live in Turkey.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if large numbers of Kurds did move to the EU, notwithstanding all those Syrian refugees in camps.

Apart from that, I think it is good strategy for Leave to tell the truth and let Remain hang themselves with their lies.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.
The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
The promised AV thread is just like the sign in the pub that promises 'free beer tomorrow'
I gave you an AV thread earlier on this year

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
But like a crack cocaine addict we never remember the last hit, it's all about the next one.
I've got two AV referendum themed threads coming up during my next stint as guest editor, which starts in less than nine days time.
Ah, Mike's booked one of his holidays when not much is expected to happen.
I shall look forward to them.

He initially wasn't going to be back until the 27th of June, but will be back on the 20th of June.

I'm not expecting much to happen.

SandyRentool · May 2016

dr_spyn said:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734120000651431940

Inflation to rise, £ to fall, and pestilence, war, disease later.

Or, big business worried that they would lose their supply of cheap labour.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

VapidBilge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856
Hmm.

I think you'll find a lot of non-Turks live in Turkey.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if large numbers of Kurds did move to the EU, notwithstanding all those Syrian refugees in camps.

Apart from that, I think it is good strategy for Leave to tell the truth and let Remain hang themselves with their lies.

You're living up to your name

peter_from_putney · May 2016

I've just been reading Brian Rees' Obituary in The Times, the Headmaster who improved standards at Rugby but then fell from grace.

What a remarkable life and, as one of the comments points out, what a terrific film this would make.

GIN1138 · May 2016

dr_spyn said:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734120000651431940

It's interesting that the DM is for LEAVE while the SM is generally for STAY

VapidBilge · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

VapidBilge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856
Hmm.

I think you'll find a lot of non-Turks live in Turkey.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if large numbers of Kurds did move to the EU, notwithstanding all those Syrian refugees in camps.

Apart from that, I think it is good strategy for Leave to tell the truth and let Remain hang themselves with their lies.
You're living up to your name

Thanks for the compliment.

Now, any chance of a reasoned argument to go with it?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · May 2016

Alanbrooke said:

dr_spyn said:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734120000651431940

Inflation to rise, £ to fall, and pestilence, war, disease later.
maybe we should just sack the bosses, they don't appear to be up to the mark.

Or let other bosses that aren't so utterly spineless put them out of business.

tlg86 · May 2016

Worth noting the Westminster Voting Intentions of the Opinium poll (change on last time in brackets):

Conservatives 35 (-3)
Labour 30 (-)
Ukip 18 (+3)
Lib Dems 5 (-)
SNP 6 (+1)
Green 5 (-)
Others 2 (-)

PeterC · May 2016

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed

I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.

VapidBilge · May 2016

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856
Why UK ?

Well, everyone else seems to be coming here from the EU.

I think Germany probably would be the primary destination as there is already a well established Turkish/Kurdish community there.

peter_from_putney · May 2016

JackW said:
Sky News reporting that "Man Utd are preparing to appoint Jose Mourinho as their new manager" probably as early as next week.

Beeb reporting same.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36351371

According to earlier reports, it was to be announced immediately after today's F.A. Cup Final.

HYUFD · May 2016

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would not say that Hammond was an not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.

I can see Hammond getting more backing from MPs than May and as Foreign Secretary he is well placed (historically the Tories pick the Foreign Sec or Chancellor as leader in power). He also reminds me of John Major who nobody saw coming until the end of the race. Unless Remain win comfortably or Leave win it will be a Remainer v a Leaver sent to the membership

Philip_Thompson · May 2016

PClipp said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Not surprised.
Not surprised either. The antics of Boris, Gove, Farage and Co are turning people off.

Doubt it. Boris is a joke anyway, I doubt many Tories are put off by Gove (while Farage isn't even a Tory).

More likely many Tories simply respect Cameron and aren't going much more in depth than that.

Casino_Royale · May 2016

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.

I think May is in pole position IMHO.

Philip_Thompson · May 2016

peter_from_putney said:

JackW said:
Sky News reporting that "Man Utd are preparing to appoint Jose Mourinho as their new manager" probably as early as next week.

Beeb reporting same.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36351371
According to earlier reports, it was to be announced immediately after today's F.A. Cup Final.

Tad harsh. "Well done on winning the FA Cup you're fired".

At least leave it to tomorrow.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

VapidBilge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

VapidBilge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856
Hmm.

I think you'll find a lot of non-Turks live in Turkey.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if large numbers of Kurds did move to the EU, notwithstanding all those Syrian refugees in camps.

Apart from that, I think it is good strategy for Leave to tell the truth and let Remain hang themselves with their lies.
You're living up to your name
Thanks for the compliment.

Now, any chance of a reasoned argument to go with it?

Simple, did those 29 million Romanians and Bulgarians turn up as the Express and Farage were forecasting?

Casino_Royale · May 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

PClipp said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Not surprised.
Not surprised either. The antics of Boris, Gove, Farage and Co are turning people off.
Doubt it. Boris is a joke anyway, I doubt many Tories are put off by Gove (while Farage isn't even a Tory).

More likely many Tories simply respect Cameron and aren't going much more in depth than that.

I think it's more about the money.

HYUFD · May 2016

tlg86 said:
Worth noting the Westminster Voting Intentions of the Opinium poll (change on last time in brackets):

Conservatives 35 (-3)
Labour 30 (-)
Ukip 18 (+3)
Lib Dems 5 (-)
SNP 6 (+1)
Green 5 (-)
Others 2 (-)

Tories down 2 since the election, LDs down 3, UKIP up 5, Labour unchanged, SNP up 1, Greens up 1. So the main shift Tory to UKIP and LDs to Greens, UKIP and SNP. Confirms why present Tory voters are shifting to Remain as some Leavers have shifted to UKIP

PeterC · May 2016

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
I think May is in pole position IMHO.

Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
I think May is in pole position IMHO.
Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!

Osborne-Gove dream ticket, you read it here first

(Though I'm not sure who it is a dream ticket for, The Tories or their opponents)

HYUFD · May 2016

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
...If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
No doubt their leadership campaigns will move into top gear.

(I'll get my coat)

Very good....

Casino_Royale · May 2016

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
I think May is in pole position IMHO.
Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!

Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/734126439252021250

HYUFD · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
I think May is in pole position IMHO.
Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
Osborne-Gove dream ticket, you read it here first

(Though I'm not sure who it is a dream ticket for, The Tories or their opponents)

Or tries to please Remain and Leave, ends up turning both off

MP_SE · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

Can anyone explain to me how 12m Turks will gain entry to the UK?

PeterC · May 2016

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
I think May is in pole position IMHO.
Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.

I wouldn't argue with any of that. Boris needs to avoid overplaying his hand and losing badly. His time may come but it's not now.

MP_SE · May 2016

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
I think May is in pole position IMHO.
Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.

May has hardly done a good job as Home Secretary so I cannot see it being her.

Casino_Royale · May 2016

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
I think May is in pole position IMHO.
Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
I wouldn't argue with any od that. Boris needs to avoid overplaying his hand and losing badly. His time may come but its not now.

I'm starting to wonder if his bus tour is a mistake.

Leave has had a thoroughly awful air war over the last 10 days, and there's no-one fighting back on the TV or radio.

Leave needs to get a couple of hits in.

PeterC · May 2016

MP_SE said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
I think May is in pole position IMHO.
Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
May has hardly done a good job as Home Secretary so I cannot see it being her.

Six years as Home Secretary without serious disaster is an achievement of sorts. The Home Office is notorious as a political graveyard.

viewcode · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million: h ttps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

At some point LEAVE decided to abandon the economy because comedy, and instead start screaming "They're coming! They're coming" like a drunk outside a train station.

* Two/three weeks ago they started by saying that "3 million Albanians would come"
* One/two weeks ago they doubled(ish) down and said "5 million by 2020!"
* This week, they doubled down again and it's "12 million Turks"

Is there some sort of betting market as to when they start saying "Everyone" is coming?

foxinsoxuk · May 2016

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856
Can anyone explain to me how 12m Turks will gain entry to the UK?

Probably as refugees after the post Brexit world war. It is essential to vote Remain to prevent this...

Casino_Royale · May 2016

MP_SE said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
I think May is in pole position IMHO.
Neither Cameron
Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
May has hardly done a good job as Home Secretary so I cannot see it being her.

She's the only one who take immigration seriously. That is going to continue to be a problem if we stay. Gove has become the intellectual godfather for Leave.

If the Tories have neither at the top, and don't offer something solid to hope for on Europe and immigration, then they will start to hollow out.

They might win GE2020 anyway but will be in real trouble as soon as Labour sort themselves out.

PeterC · May 2016

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
May is in pole position IMHO.
Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!

a May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
I wouldn't argue with any od that. Boris needs to avoid overplaying his hand and losing badly. His time may come but its not now.
I'm starting to wonder if his bus tour is a mistake.

Leave has had a thoroughly awful air war over the last 10 days, and there's no-one fighting back on the TV or radio.

Leave needs to get a couple of hits in.

The sheer insanity of that open border bears endless repetition. And the failure of the euro too. All this stuff about Hitler and Napoleon just sucks.

justin124 · May 2016

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:
Worth noting the Westminster Voting Intentions of the Opinium poll (change on last time in brackets):

Conservatives 35 (-3)
Labour 30 (-)
Ukip 18 (+3)
Lib Dems 5 (-)
SNP 6 (+1)
Green 5 (-)
Others 2 (-)
Tories down 2 since the election, LDs down 3, UKIP up 5, Labour unchanged, SNP up 1, Greens up 1. So the main shift Tory to UKIP and LDs to Greens, UKIP and SNP. Confirms why present Tory voters are shifting to Remain as some Leavers have shifted to UKIP

The poll gives us GB figures. On that basis the Tories are down 2.8% and Labour are down 1.2%. The Tory lead looks a bit on the high side compared with other recent polls.

foxinsoxuk · May 2016

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond
May is in pole position IMHO.
Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!

a May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
I wouldn't argue with any od that. Boris needs to avoid overplaying his hand and losing badly. His time may come but its not now.
I'm starting to wonder if his bus tour is a mistake.

Leave has had a thoroughly awful air war over the last 10 days, and there's no-one fighting back on the TV or radio.

Leave needs to get a couple of hits in.
The sheer insanity of that open border bears endless repetition. And the failure of the euro too. All this stuff about Hitler and Napoleon just sucks.

Are Hitler and Napoleon coming here too to suck on our welfare state? Shame on them!

FrancisUrquhart · May 2016

Haye fighting another bum I see. No wonder boxing is going down the tubes compared to MMA.

HYUFD · May 2016

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:
Worth noting the Westminster Voting Intentions of the Opinium poll (change on last time in brackets):

Conservatives 35 (-3)
Labour 30 (-)
Ukip 18 (+3)
Lib Dems 5 (-)
SNP 6 (+1)
Green 5 (-)
Others 2 (-)
Tories down 2 since the election, LDs down 3, UKIP up 5, Labour unchanged, SNP up 1, Greens up 1. So the main shift Tory to UKIP and LDs to Greens, UKIP and SNP. Confirms why present Tory voters are shifting to Remain as some Leavers have shifted to UKIP
The poll gives us GB figures. On that basis the Tories are down 2.8% and Labour are down 1.2%. The Tory lead looks a bit on the high side compared with other recent polls.

The Tory lead is pretty par for the course in most polls, smaller but almost entirely because of Tory voters shifting to UKIP, not because of any gains being made by Labour

viewcode · May 2016

Casino_Royale said:
I'm starting to wonder if his bus tour is a mistake.

If LEAVE win it'll be seen as a masterstroke. If REMAIN win, it'll be seen as silly. There is an element of lap-of-the-gods about this, horribly enough. I can fail Boris for many things (list available upon request...and it's a long list), but not necessarily this.

Philip_Thompson · May 2016

Casino_Royale said:

Philip_Thompson said:

PClipp said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Not surprised.
Not surprised either. The antics of Boris, Gove, Farage and Co are turning people off.
Doubt it. Boris is a joke anyway, I doubt many Tories are put off by Gove (while Farage isn't even a Tory).

More likely many Tories simply respect Cameron and aren't going much more in depth than that.
I think it's more about the money.

Agreed, but the two are linked. Cameron is saying it will cost money, many Tories trust Cameron so believe that, they don't want to lose money, so they'll vote accordingly.

If they didn't trust Cameron then the money issue would be moot.

MP_SE · May 2016

Casino_Royale said:

MP_SE said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
I think May is in pole position IMHO.
Neither Cameron
Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
May has hardly done a good job as Home Secretary so I cannot see it being her.
She's the only one who take immigration seriously. That is going to continue to be a problem if we stay. Gove has become the intellectual godfather for Leave.

If the Tories have neither at the top, and don't offer something solid to hope for on Europe and immigration, then they will start to hollow out.

They might win GE2020 anyway but will be in real trouble as soon as Labour sort themselves out.

I found May's conduct over the European Arrest Warrant simply unforgivable.

dr_spyn · May 2016

Water into blood, Frogs, Lice, Wild animals, Diseased livestock, Boils, Thunderstorm of hail and fire, Locusts, Darkness for three days, Death of firstborn.

Add 11th plague, Brexit means lower bonuses at John Lewis. (Mail business pages).

MP_SE · May 2016

FrancisUrquhart said:
Haye fighting another bum I see. No wonder boxing is going down the tubes compared to MMA.

I want to see a Mayweather vs McGregor fight. Apparently Mayweather has offered McGreggor $50m.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · May 2016

Casino_Royale said:

MP_SE said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:
Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

He's toast whatever happens next month.
But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
I think May is in pole position IMHO.
Neither Cameron
Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
May has hardly done a good job as Home Secretary so I cannot see it being her.
She's the only one who take immigration seriously. That is going to continue to be a problem if we stay. Gove has become the intellectual godfather for Leave.

If the Tories have neither at the top, and don't offer something solid to hope for on Europe and immigration, then they will start to hollow out.

They might win GE2020 anyway but will be in real trouble as soon as Labour sort themselves out.

May has been completely house trained by the Home Office civil servants.

Scott_P · May 2016

https://twitter.com/st_newsroom/status/734132438134296576

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

Faith-based Congressional candidate reveals porn tabs in Facebook slip-up

We're all familiar with the existence of web sex, but how familiar are you with Webb sex?

Well, if you didn't previously know of Mike Webb - the Republican candidate for US Congress in Virginia's 8th district - he made sure you did after forgetting to rid a screenshot of his congressional campaign from open porn tabs before posting it to Facebook. Oops!

One read "LAYLA RIVERA TIGHT BODY" whilst the other offered "IVONE SEXY AMATEUR", which, after quick verification, we can surprisingly confirm is of the naughty variety.

The red-faced debacle was compounded after the candidate left the post up for over seven hours, leading to a chain of cringeworthy/nonsensical explanations, which he later deleted, about the mishap.

http://www.digitalspy.com/tech/news/a794390/faith-based-congressional-candidate-reveals-porn-tabs-in-facebook-slip-up/

MarkHopkins · May 2016

we'll see

chestnut · May 2016

tlg86 said:
Worth noting the Westminster Voting Intentions of the Opinium poll (change on last time in brackets):

Conservatives 35 (-3)
Labour 30 (-)
Ukip 18 (+3)
Lib Dems 5 (-)
SNP 6 (+1)
Green 5 (-)
Others 2 (-)

So UKIP shot up and Leave fell?

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

chestnut said:

tlg86 said:
Worth noting the Westminster Voting Intentions of the Opinium poll (change on last time in brackets):

Conservatives 35 (-3)
Labour 30 (-)
Ukip 18 (+3)
Lib Dems 5 (-)
SNP 6 (+1)
Green 5 (-)
Others 2 (-)
So UKIP shot up and Leave fell?

Not quite, the last Opinium poll saw UKIP fall by 2%, so they've regressed back to the mean, and a little bit.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2016

MP_SE said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Haye fighting another bum I see. No wonder boxing is going down the tubes compared to MMA.
I want to see a Mayweather vs McGregor fight. Apparently Mayweather has offered McGreggor $50m.

Mayweather will be too good for him.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2016

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/st_newsroom/status/734132438134296576

What is the story about the Hobbit?

MikeK · May 2016

I see that OGH is getting mighty excited that Remain will win it easy and moreover things won't change until the Ref. What's more he is going to put it in writing in the Observer. Tsk, tsk, tsk.

RobD · May 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Faith-based Congressional candidate reveals porn tabs in Facebook slip-up

We're all familiar with the existence of web sex, but how familiar are you with Webb sex?

Well, if you didn't previously know of Mike Webb - the Republican candidate for US Congress in Virginia's 8th district - he made sure you did after forgetting to rid a screenshot of his congressional campaign from open porn tabs before posting it to Facebook. Oops!

One read "LAYLA RIVERA TIGHT BODY" whilst the other offered "IVONE SEXY AMATEUR", which, after quick verification, we can surprisingly confirm is of the naughty variety.

The red-faced debacle was compounded after the candidate left the post up for over seven hours, leading to a chain of cringeworthy/nonsensical explanations, which he later deleted, about the mishap.

http://www.digitalspy.com/tech/news/a794390/faith-based-congressional-candidate-reveals-porn-tabs-in-facebook-slip-up/

He's got nothing on Ed Balls

foxinsoxuk · May 2016

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million: h ttps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856
At some point LEAVE decided to abandon the economy because comedy, and instead start screaming "They're coming! They're coming" like a drunk outside a train station.

* Two/three weeks ago they started by saying that "3 million Albanians would come"
* One/two weeks ago they doubled(ish) down and said "5 million by 2020!"
* This week, they doubled down again and it's "12 million Turks"

Is there some sort of betting market as to when they start saying "Everyone" is coming?

Since Leave has gone bonkers over immigration, Remain has moved further ahead on polls and betting? Cause or effect?

I think the focus on those dastardly foreigners is shoring up the core vote to a degree but repelling the undecideds and proving counterproductive.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2016

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734133346062761985

RobD · May 2016

What's the opposite of whitewash?

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON voters, it appears, are now more inclined to Dave’s EUR

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