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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON voters, it appears, are now more inclined to Dave’s EUR

SystemSystem Posts: 12,267
edited May 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON voters, it appears, are now more inclined to Dave’s EURef position than Boris’s

That’s now looking outdated given the polls we’ve seen this week. I list some of the CON voter splits in my Tweet above which appear to show a picture that will make uncomfortable reading for OUT and reassurance for IN.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    First like Leave when it matters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Not surprised.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Not surprised.

    Not surprised either. The antics of Boris, Gove, Farage and Co are turning people off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/734113678518329344
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    edited May 2016
    Polls tend to show 2015 Tory voters slightly more likely to vote Leave than present Tory voters, probably as a few of them have now shifted to UKIP. However I have long held the view Tory voters, not Labour voters, are the key to the referendum. Leave needs a clear majority of Tory voters to back Leave to win, if it is close or Remain slightly ahead, as with Opinium tonight, Remain should edge it. If Remain do win by less than 60%, the challenge for the Tories will be keeping their Leave voters on board and preventing them from defecting to UKIP
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/734113678518329344

    They're all just one big happy family.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Is there a betting market for a General Election in 2016 or 2017 ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @andyburnhammp: Who says Evertonians can't succeed in Manchester?! Great game @WayneRooney.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thank you. I still think Leave's best chance is either some Labour voters voting Leave to get rid of Cameron (unlikely) or just not bothering to vote at all (a possibility).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/734113678518329344

    They're all just one big happy family.
    I've written a thread just for you tomorrow.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Scott_P said:

    @andyburnhammp: Who says Evertonians can't succeed in Manchester?! Great game @WayneRooney.

    Burnham will be hanging from a lamp post if he's seen anywhere near Goodison Park after that remark!
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/734113678518329344

    They're all just one big happy family.
    Or an epidemic of Stockholm Syndrome.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.

    The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But he's also gained some similar, if not more, support elsewhere.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    edited May 2016
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thank you. I still think Leave's best chance is either some Labour voters voting Leave to get rid of Cameron (unlikely) or just not bothering to vote at all (a possibility).
    No, even if barely half of Labour voters turn out to vote for Remain if a plurality of Tory voters vote Remain then Remain win regardless
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.

    The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
    I might have to deploy some of my what lessons can we learn from the AV referendum for this referendum pieces (plural) tomorrow
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    edited May 2016
    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    His reputation is sort of fkd


    Lefties hate him on principle, the Centrists can't forgive him for trashing the LibDmes and half the righties despise him.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited May 2016
    Sky News reporting that "Man Utd are preparing to appoint Jose Mourinho as their new manager" probably as early as next week.

    Beeb reporting same.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36351371
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,935
    Alanbrooke said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    Hos reputation is sort of fkd


    Lefties hate him on principle, the Centrists can't forgive him for trashing the LibDmes and half the righties despise him.
    Three people have screwed themselves: Cameron, Osborne and Johnson. It's almost impossible to see either of the latter two as PM now. And it's hard to see Cameron having as much control over his destiny than seemed likely just 12 months ago.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But he's also gained some similar, if not more, support elsewhere.
    a surgical truss presumably to support his sagging cojones
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    rcs1000 said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    Hos reputation is sort of fkd


    Lefties hate him on principle, the Centrists can't forgive him for trashing the LibDmes and half the righties despise him.
    Three people have screwed themselves: Cameron, Osborne and Johnson. It's almost impossible to see either of the latter two as PM now. And it's hard to see Cameron having as much control over his destiny than seemed likely just 12 months ago.
    So good news all round.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thank you. I still think Leave's best chance is either some Labour voters voting Leave to get rid of Cameron (unlikely) or just not bothering to vote at all (a possibility).
    No, even if barely half of Labour voters turn out to vote for Remain if a plurality of Tory voters vote Remain then Remain win regardless
    Those Labour voters who will vote are more likely to vote REMAIN than those who will stay at home. Probably, 70 - 30. Many potential Labour Leave voters have already decamped to UKIP.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.

    The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
    The promised AV thread is just like the sign in the pub that promises 'free beer tomorrow'
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,935
    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.

    The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
    The promised AV thread is just like the sign in the pub that promises 'free beer tomorrow'
    I gave you an AV thread earlier on this year

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thank you. I still think Leave's best chance is either some Labour voters voting Leave to get rid of Cameron (unlikely) or just not bothering to vote at all (a possibility).
    No, even if barely half of Labour voters turn out to vote for Remain if a plurality of Tory voters vote Remain then Remain win regardless
    Those Labour voters who will vote are more likely to vote REMAIN than those who will stay at home. Probably, 70 - 30. Many potential Labour Leave voters have already decamped to UKIP.
    Yes, so in this regard we need to think of Ukip being on 18% of the vote (as they are with Opinium) rather than the 12.5% that they got last year. And they will turnout (I hope).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Yup. But maybe it's tme the darned thing split up anyway and put some vigour back in to politics.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Scott_P said:

    @andyburnhammp: Who says Evertonians can't succeed in Manchester?! Great game @WayneRooney.

    Perhaps Burnham has forgotten about Jack Rodwell.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.

    The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
    The promised AV thread is just like the sign in the pub that promises 'free beer tomorrow'
    I gave you an AV thread earlier on this year

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
    But like a crack cocaine addict we never remember the last hit, it's all about the next one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.

    The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
    The promised AV thread is just like the sign in the pub that promises 'free beer tomorrow'
    I gave you an AV thread earlier on this year

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
    But like a crack cocaine addict we never remember the last hit, it's all about the next one.
    I've got two AV referendum themed threads coming up during my next stint as guest editor, which starts in less than nine days time.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    polluted
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

    Why UK ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thank you. I still think Leave's best chance is either some Labour voters voting Leave to get rid of Cameron (unlikely) or just not bothering to vote at all (a possibility).
    No, even if barely half of Labour voters turn out to vote for Remain if a plurality of Tory voters vote Remain then Remain win regardless
    Those Labour voters who will vote are more likely to vote REMAIN than those who will stay at home. Probably, 70 - 30. Many potential Labour Leave voters have already decamped to UKIP.
    Indeed, whether Labour voters vote or not will not determine the referendum, whether or not a majority of Tory voters back Leave will
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.

    The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
    The promised AV thread is just like the sign in the pub that promises 'free beer tomorrow'
    I gave you an AV thread earlier on this year

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
    But like a crack cocaine addict we never remember the last hit, it's all about the next one.
    I've got two AV referendum themed threads coming up during my next stint as guest editor, which starts in less than nine days time.
    Ah, Mike's booked one of his holidays when not much is expected to happen.
    I shall look forward to them.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    ...If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    No doubt their leadership campaigns will move into top gear.

    (I'll get my coat)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734120000651431940

    Inflation to rise, £ to fall, and pestilence, war, disease later.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734120000651431940

    Inflation to rise, £ to fall, and pestilence, war, disease later.

    maybe we should just sack the bosses, they don't appear to be up to the mark.
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

    Hmm.

    I think you'll find a lot of non-Turks live in Turkey.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if large numbers of Kurds did move to the EU, notwithstanding all those Syrian refugees in camps.

    Apart from that, I think it is good strategy for Leave to tell the truth and let Remain hang themselves with their lies.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh Mike, I was planning to cover this tomorrow.

    The story of your life, Mr Eagles, and yet if I read your answer to the good Field Marshal correctly somehow you still avoid giving us the promised AV thread.
    The promised AV thread is just like the sign in the pub that promises 'free beer tomorrow'
    I gave you an AV thread earlier on this year

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
    But like a crack cocaine addict we never remember the last hit, it's all about the next one.
    I've got two AV referendum themed threads coming up during my next stint as guest editor, which starts in less than nine days time.
    Ah, Mike's booked one of his holidays when not much is expected to happen.
    I shall look forward to them.

    He initially wasn't going to be back until the 27th of June, but will be back on the 20th of June.

    I'm not expecting much to happen.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734120000651431940

    Inflation to rise, £ to fall, and pestilence, war, disease later.

    Or, big business worried that they would lose their supply of cheap labour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    VapidBilge said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

    Hmm.

    I think you'll find a lot of non-Turks live in Turkey.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if large numbers of Kurds did move to the EU, notwithstanding all those Syrian refugees in camps.

    Apart from that, I think it is good strategy for Leave to tell the truth and let Remain hang themselves with their lies.
    You're living up to your name
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    I've just been reading Brian Rees' Obituary in The Times, the Headmaster who improved standards at Rugby but then fell from grace.

    What a remarkable life and, as one of the comments points out, what a terrific film this would make.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    edited May 2016
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734120000651431940

    It's interesting that the DM is for LEAVE while the SM is generally for STAY
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    VapidBilge said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

    Hmm.

    I think you'll find a lot of non-Turks live in Turkey.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if large numbers of Kurds did move to the EU, notwithstanding all those Syrian refugees in camps.

    Apart from that, I think it is good strategy for Leave to tell the truth and let Remain hang themselves with their lies.
    You're living up to your name
    Thanks for the compliment.

    Now, any chance of a reasoned argument to go with it?
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Alanbrooke said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734120000651431940

    Inflation to rise, £ to fall, and pestilence, war, disease later.

    maybe we should just sack the bosses, they don't appear to be up to the mark.
    Or let other bosses that aren't so utterly spineless put them out of business.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Worth noting the Westminster Voting Intentions of the Opinium poll (change on last time in brackets):

    Conservatives 35 (-3)
    Labour 30 (-)
    Ukip 18 (+3)
    Lib Dems 5 (-)
    SNP 6 (+1)
    Green 5 (-)
    Others 2 (-)
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited May 2016
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    surbiton said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

    Why UK ?
    Well, everyone else seems to be coming here from the EU.

    I think Germany probably would be the primary destination as there is already a well established Turkish/Kurdish community there.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    JackW said:

    Sky News reporting that "Man Utd are preparing to appoint Jose Mourinho as their new manager" probably as early as next week.

    Beeb reporting same.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36351371

    According to earlier reports, it was to be announced immediately after today's F.A. Cup Final.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    edited May 2016
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would not say that Hammond was an not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I can see Hammond getting more backing from MPs than May and as Foreign Secretary he is well placed (historically the Tories pick the Foreign Sec or Chancellor as leader in power). He also reminds me of John Major who nobody saw coming until the end of the race. Unless Remain win comfortably or Leave win it will be a Remainer v a Leaver sent to the membership
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    PClipp said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Not surprised.

    Not surprised either. The antics of Boris, Gove, Farage and Co are turning people off.
    Doubt it. Boris is a joke anyway, I doubt many Tories are put off by Gove (while Farage isn't even a Tory).

    More likely many Tories simply respect Cameron and aren't going much more in depth than that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I think May is in pole position IMHO.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    peter_from_putney said:

    JackW said:

    Sky News reporting that "Man Utd are preparing to appoint Jose Mourinho as their new manager" probably as early as next week.

    Beeb reporting same.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36351371

    According to earlier reports, it was to be announced immediately after today's F.A. Cup Final.
    Tad harsh. "Well done on winning the FA Cup you're fired".

    At least leave it to tomorrow.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    VapidBilge said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    VapidBilge said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

    Hmm.

    I think you'll find a lot of non-Turks live in Turkey.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if large numbers of Kurds did move to the EU, notwithstanding all those Syrian refugees in camps.

    Apart from that, I think it is good strategy for Leave to tell the truth and let Remain hang themselves with their lies.
    You're living up to your name
    Thanks for the compliment.

    Now, any chance of a reasoned argument to go with it?
    Simple, did those 29 million Romanians and Bulgarians turn up as the Express and Farage were forecasting?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Philip_Thompson said:

    PClipp said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Not surprised.

    Not surprised either. The antics of Boris, Gove, Farage and Co are turning people off.
    Doubt it. Boris is a joke anyway, I doubt many Tories are put off by Gove (while Farage isn't even a Tory).

    More likely many Tories simply respect Cameron and aren't going much more in depth than that.
    I think it's more about the money.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    edited May 2016
    tlg86 said:

    Worth noting the Westminster Voting Intentions of the Opinium poll (change on last time in brackets):

    Conservatives 35 (-3)
    Labour 30 (-)
    Ukip 18 (+3)
    Lib Dems 5 (-)
    SNP 6 (+1)
    Green 5 (-)
    Others 2 (-)

    Tories down 2 since the election, LDs down 3, UKIP up 5, Labour unchanged, SNP up 1, Greens up 1. So the main shift Tory to UKIP and LDs to Greens, UKIP and SNP. Confirms why present Tory voters are shifting to Remain as some Leavers have shifted to UKIP
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I think May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I think May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
    Osborne-Gove dream ticket, you read it here first

    (Though I'm not sure who it is a dream ticket for, The Tories or their opponents)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    ...If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    No doubt their leadership campaigns will move into top gear.

    (I'll get my coat)
    Very good....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I think May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
    Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

    Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

    I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/734126439252021250
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I think May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
    Osborne-Gove dream ticket, you read it here first

    (Though I'm not sure who it is a dream ticket for, The Tories or their opponents)
    Or tries to please Remain and Leave, ends up turning both off
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

    Can anyone explain to me how 12m Turks will gain entry to the UK?
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited May 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I think May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
    Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

    Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

    I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
    I wouldn't argue with any of that. Boris needs to avoid overplaying his hand and losing badly. His time may come but it's not now.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I think May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
    Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

    Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

    I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
    May has hardly done a good job as Home Secretary so I cannot see it being her.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I think May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
    Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

    Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

    I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
    I wouldn't argue with any od that. Boris needs to avoid overplaying his hand and losing badly. His time may come but its not now.
    I'm starting to wonder if his bus tour is a mistake.

    Leave has had a thoroughly awful air war over the last 10 days, and there's no-one fighting back on the TV or radio.

    Leave needs to get a couple of hits in.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    MP_SE said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I think May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!
    Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

    Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

    I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
    May has hardly done a good job as Home Secretary so I cannot see it being her.
    Six years as Home Secretary without serious disaster is an achievement of sorts. The Home Office is notorious as a political graveyard.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,812
    edited May 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million: h ttps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

    At some point LEAVE decided to abandon the economy because comedy, and instead start screaming "They're coming! They're coming" like a drunk outside a train station.

    * Two/three weeks ago they started by saying that "3 million Albanians would come"
    * One/two weeks ago they doubled(ish) down and said "5 million by 2020!"
    * This week, they doubled down again and it's "12 million Turks"

    Is there some sort of betting market as to when they start saying "Everyone" is coming?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MP_SE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

    Can anyone explain to me how 12m Turks will gain entry to the UK?
    Probably as refugees after the post Brexit world war. It is essential to vote Remain to prevent this...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    MP_SE said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I think May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron
    Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

    Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

    I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
    May has hardly done a good job as Home Secretary so I cannot see it being her.
    She's the only one who take immigration seriously. That is going to continue to be a problem if we stay. Gove has become the intellectual godfather for Leave.

    If the Tories have neither at the top, and don't offer something solid to hope for on Europe and immigration, then they will start to hollow out.

    They might win GE2020 anyway but will be in real trouble as soon as Labour sort themselves out.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!

    a May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

    I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
    I wouldn't argue with any od that. Boris needs to avoid overplaying his hand and losing badly. His time may come but its not now.
    I'm starting to wonder if his bus tour is a mistake.

    Leave has had a thoroughly awful air war over the last 10 days, and there's no-one fighting back on the TV or radio.

    Leave needs to get a couple of hits in.
    The sheer insanity of that open border bears endless repetition. And the failure of the euro too. All this stuff about Hitler and Napoleon just sucks.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Worth noting the Westminster Voting Intentions of the Opinium poll (change on last time in brackets):

    Conservatives 35 (-3)
    Labour 30 (-)
    Ukip 18 (+3)
    Lib Dems 5 (-)
    SNP 6 (+1)
    Green 5 (-)
    Others 2 (-)

    Tories down 2 since the election, LDs down 3, UKIP up 5, Labour unchanged, SNP up 1, Greens up 1. So the main shift Tory to UKIP and LDs to Greens, UKIP and SNP. Confirms why present Tory voters are shifting to Remain as some Leavers have shifted to UKIP
    The poll gives us GB figures. On that basis the Tories are down 2.8% and Labour are down 1.2%. The Tory lead looks a bit on the high side compared with other recent polls.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond
    May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron nor Boris could possibly unite the party. Nor Gove either, although he seems not to want it. If REMAIN has won narrowly I expect Theresa to say something like "we shall remain in the EU so long as it is in the national interest". Make of that what you will!

    a May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

    I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
    I wouldn't argue with any od that. Boris needs to avoid overplaying his hand and losing badly. His time may come but its not now.
    I'm starting to wonder if his bus tour is a mistake.

    Leave has had a thoroughly awful air war over the last 10 days, and there's no-one fighting back on the TV or radio.

    Leave needs to get a couple of hits in.
    The sheer insanity of that open border bears endless repetition. And the failure of the euro too. All this stuff about Hitler and Napoleon just sucks.
    Are Hitler and Napoleon coming here too to suck on our welfare state? Shame on them!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Haye fighting another bum I see. No wonder boxing is going down the tubes compared to MMA.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Worth noting the Westminster Voting Intentions of the Opinium poll (change on last time in brackets):

    Conservatives 35 (-3)
    Labour 30 (-)
    Ukip 18 (+3)
    Lib Dems 5 (-)
    SNP 6 (+1)
    Green 5 (-)
    Others 2 (-)

    Tories down 2 since the election, LDs down 3, UKIP up 5, Labour unchanged, SNP up 1, Greens up 1. So the main shift Tory to UKIP and LDs to Greens, UKIP and SNP. Confirms why present Tory voters are shifting to Remain as some Leavers have shifted to UKIP
    The poll gives us GB figures. On that basis the Tories are down 2.8% and Labour are down 1.2%. The Tory lead looks a bit on the high side compared with other recent polls.
    The Tory lead is pretty par for the course in most polls, smaller but almost entirely because of Tory voters shifting to UKIP, not because of any gains being made by Labour
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,812
    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm starting to wonder if his bus tour is a mistake.

    If LEAVE win it'll be seen as a masterstroke. If REMAIN win, it'll be seen as silly. There is an element of lap-of-the-gods about this, horribly enough. I can fail Boris for many things (list available upon request...and it's a long list), but not necessarily this.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Casino_Royale said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    PClipp said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Not surprised.

    Not surprised either. The antics of Boris, Gove, Farage and Co are turning people off.
    Doubt it. Boris is a joke anyway, I doubt many Tories are put off by Gove (while Farage isn't even a Tory).

    More likely many Tories simply respect Cameron and aren't going much more in depth than that.
    I think it's more about the money.
    Agreed, but the two are linked. Cameron is saying it will cost money, many Tories trust Cameron so believe that, they don't want to lose money, so they'll vote accordingly.

    If they didn't trust Cameron then the money issue would be moot.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Casino_Royale said:

    MP_SE said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I think May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron
    Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

    Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

    I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
    May has hardly done a good job as Home Secretary so I cannot see it being her.
    She's the only one who take immigration seriously. That is going to continue to be a problem if we stay. Gove has become the intellectual godfather for Leave.

    If the Tories have neither at the top, and don't offer something solid to hope for on Europe and immigration, then they will start to hollow out.

    They might win GE2020 anyway but will be in real trouble as soon as Labour sort themselves out.
    I found May's conduct over the European Arrest Warrant simply unforgivable.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Water into blood, Frogs, Lice, Wild animals, Diseased livestock, Boils, Thunderstorm of hail and fire, Locusts, Darkness for three days, Death of firstborn.

    Add 11th plague, Brexit means lower bonuses at John Lewis. (Mail business pages).
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Haye fighting another bum I see. No wonder boxing is going down the tubes compared to MMA.

    I want to see a Mayweather vs McGregor fight. Apparently Mayweather has offered McGreggor $50m.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Casino_Royale said:

    MP_SE said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Out of interest, is this people who say they voted Tory in 2015 or people who give a Tory voting intention right now?

    Current Tory VI, 2015 Tories are generally more Leavers than Remainers, sometimes by quite some distance.
    Thus showing that Cameron's behaviour has turned off a large number of people who voted for him last year.

    He's toast whatever happens next month.
    But whoever takes over the party has to bring it back together again. Assume Remain wins by 10% but with a narrow lead for Leave among 2015 Tory voters.

    The Tories need a healer. Either a sceptical Remainer, or a "respect the referendum for now" Leaver. Anything else risks splitting the party in two.
    Sceptical Remainer ? Theresa May ?
    Or Philip Hammond. Osborne needs Remain to win by 60%+ to secure the leadership, Boris, Fox, Gove and Patel really need Leave to win. If Remain win narrowly May or Hammond are well placed
    I would say that Hammond was not an especially sceptical REMAINer. Does he want it? I'm not sure - he seems a bit of a plodder to me. Theresa May is more obviously positioning herself - supports REMAIN but says little about it. Boris would do well to support Theresa against Osborne. Time is on his side and he needs to demonstrate competence in a senior cabinet role.
    I think May is in pole position IMHO.
    Neither Cameron
    Gove could but I'm not sure he wants it and he knows his public image is awful; he understands he might cost the Tories the election.

    Right now, a Theresa May premiership with Gove as her number two (either as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary) is probably the only thing that could keep me in the party.

    I think the sooner Cameron and Osborne go the better.
    May has hardly done a good job as Home Secretary so I cannot see it being her.
    She's the only one who take immigration seriously. That is going to continue to be a problem if we stay. Gove has become the intellectual godfather for Leave.

    If the Tories have neither at the top, and don't offer something solid to hope for on Europe and immigration, then they will start to hollow out.

    They might win GE2020 anyway but will be in real trouble as soon as Labour sort themselves out.
    May has been completely house trained by the Home Office civil servants.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/st_newsroom/status/734132438134296576
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    edited May 2016
    Faith-based Congressional candidate reveals porn tabs in Facebook slip-up

    We're all familiar with the existence of web sex, but how familiar are you with Webb sex?

    Well, if you didn't previously know of Mike Webb - the Republican candidate for US Congress in Virginia's 8th district - he made sure you did after forgetting to rid a screenshot of his congressional campaign from open porn tabs before posting it to Facebook. Oops!

    One read "LAYLA RIVERA TIGHT BODY" whilst the other offered "IVONE SEXY AMATEUR", which, after quick verification, we can surprisingly confirm is of the naughty variety.

    The red-faced debacle was compounded after the candidate left the post up for over seven hours, leading to a chain of cringeworthy/nonsensical explanations, which he later deleted, about the mishap.

    http://www.digitalspy.com/tech/news/a794390/faith-based-congressional-candidate-reveals-porn-tabs-in-facebook-slip-up/
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    we'll see
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    tlg86 said:

    Worth noting the Westminster Voting Intentions of the Opinium poll (change on last time in brackets):

    Conservatives 35 (-3)
    Labour 30 (-)
    Ukip 18 (+3)
    Lib Dems 5 (-)
    SNP 6 (+1)
    Green 5 (-)
    Others 2 (-)

    So UKIP shot up and Leave fell?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    chestnut said:

    tlg86 said:

    Worth noting the Westminster Voting Intentions of the Opinium poll (change on last time in brackets):

    Conservatives 35 (-3)
    Labour 30 (-)
    Ukip 18 (+3)
    Lib Dems 5 (-)
    SNP 6 (+1)
    Green 5 (-)
    Others 2 (-)

    So UKIP shot up and Leave fell?
    Not quite, the last Opinium poll saw UKIP fall by 2%, so they've regressed back to the mean, and a little bit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    MP_SE said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Haye fighting another bum I see. No wonder boxing is going down the tubes compared to MMA.

    I want to see a Mayweather vs McGregor fight. Apparently Mayweather has offered McGreggor $50m.
    Mayweather will be too good for him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/st_newsroom/status/734132438134296576

    What is the story about the Hobbit?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I see that OGH is getting mighty excited that Remain will win it easy and moreover things won't change until the Ref. What's more he is going to put it in writing in the Observer. Tsk, tsk, tsk. ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,165
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Faith-based Congressional candidate reveals porn tabs in Facebook slip-up

    We're all familiar with the existence of web sex, but how familiar are you with Webb sex?

    Well, if you didn't previously know of Mike Webb - the Republican candidate for US Congress in Virginia's 8th district - he made sure you did after forgetting to rid a screenshot of his congressional campaign from open porn tabs before posting it to Facebook. Oops!

    One read "LAYLA RIVERA TIGHT BODY" whilst the other offered "IVONE SEXY AMATEUR", which, after quick verification, we can surprisingly confirm is of the naughty variety.

    The red-faced debacle was compounded after the candidate left the post up for over seven hours, leading to a chain of cringeworthy/nonsensical explanations, which he later deleted, about the mishap.

    http://www.digitalspy.com/tech/news/a794390/faith-based-congressional-candidate-reveals-porn-tabs-in-facebook-slip-up/

    He's got nothing on Ed Balls :D
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    viewcode said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'd expect The Express to go for the full 77 million: h ttps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734118653323513856

    At some point LEAVE decided to abandon the economy because comedy, and instead start screaming "They're coming! They're coming" like a drunk outside a train station.

    * Two/three weeks ago they started by saying that "3 million Albanians would come"
    * One/two weeks ago they doubled(ish) down and said "5 million by 2020!"
    * This week, they doubled down again and it's "12 million Turks"

    Is there some sort of betting market as to when they start saying "Everyone" is coming?
    Since Leave has gone bonkers over immigration, Remain has moved further ahead on polls and betting? Cause or effect?

    I think the focus on those dastardly foreigners is shoring up the core vote to a degree but repelling the undecideds and proving counterproductive.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734133346062761985
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,165
    What's the opposite of whitewash? :p
This discussion has been closed.