politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet
Given the amount of heat that has been generated by the EU referendum, there has been surprisingly little discussion about the actual chances of the main event. It’s time to put that right.
Comments
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Glorious first!0
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2nd like Liverpool last night.0
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Good article0
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On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.
I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.0 -
Apparently, Merkel is looking at a Turkey style deal with Sudan - what could possibly go wrong. Libya next?
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/supping-with-the-devil-wont-solve-the-migrant-crisis-tmkrpvpjt0 -
I am not so sure.
I find that Shy Remainers are at least as common as Shy Leavers, and not just below the line here. Leavers are often very vocal to the point of evangelic zeal that has Remainers backing quietly away and glancing at escape routes.
1/4 does not look value to me when polling is so problematic. I think the value is on Leave.
I think that the Leave campaigns mockery of the consequences of Brexit are helping establish a meme of risk, and also that the focus on immigration and hostility to fellow europeans has repelled the undecided as much as it has reinforced the Leave core vote. Leave have themselves to blame for a poor campaign, though Remain has been no great shakes either.
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Are we allowed to post Limericks here by that well known young Turk Boris Johnson about his esteemed president?0
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Labour big city mayors are the best way to develop a more centrist alternative to Corbyn Labour. How they campaign and what they do in office will be key. But big fish, with large mandates, in London, Manchester, Liverpool etc will create an alternative narrative to the far left's exclusionary, confrontational, infantile approach to politics as well as powerful bases from which to challenge it at the national level. Look out for this over the coming years. But it will be localism that keeps Labour alive while the membership gives the Tories free rein in Westminster.0
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I think turnout will be a lot higher than you imply. People might be bored and irritated by the campaign, but they realise the importance of the vote - much more consequential than a mere general election.Sandpit said:On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.
I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.0 -
The Sky debates are 8th/9th June IIRC. Not sure of ITV.Sandpit said:On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.
I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.0 -
A fair article.
I do think Leave have a *slightly* better message than Alastair gives them credit for on the money (I think the £350m per week to buy a new hospital is effective politics) justice/human rights (votes for prisoners) and a certain type of voter will find the ability to do global trade deals appealing. In this sense the 5 reasons to Vote Leave leaflet is quite good.
However, the national air war is less good.
The only bit I disagree with is backing Remain at 1/4. If the polls are as unreliable as they seem to be then this doesn't seem to be to be a value bet when you consider the risks of 'events' over the next 5 weeks.
A 75% chance does not equal a 100% chance.0 -
I can't believe his was the best - very tepid I thought. Vogons could do better.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Are we allowed to post Limericks here by that well known young Turk Boris Johnson about his esteemed president?
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Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html0 -
PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.
Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.0 -
Until the Corbynite membership decides to expel the likes of Sadiq Khan...SouthamObserver said:Labour big city mayors are the best way to develop a more centrist alternative to Corbyn Labour. How they campaign and what they do in office will be key. But big fish, with large mandates, in London, Manchester, Liverpool etc will create an alternative narrative to the far left's exclusionary, confrontational, infantile approach to politics as well as powerful bases from which to challenge it at the national level. Look out for this over the coming years. But it will be localism that keeps Labour alive while the membership gives the Tories free rein in Westminster.
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Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.Casino_Royale said:PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.
Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.0 -
The pro-EU 'unpopular front' vs. the rest?Plato_Says said:
Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.Casino_Royale said:PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.
Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.0 -
Weird isn't it? Doesn't look like it will get much coverage though, there's lots of other news today apart from an empty Queen's Speech. The cynic in me says that the doctors' dispute news was very well timed.Plato_Says said:
Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.Casino_Royale said:PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.
Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.
All old news now though, only one story for the rest of today and it's not looking good for Egyptair 804.0 -
A fine article.0
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I sometimes wonder if there is a plane in the world that manages to take off without a Brit on board. Is it on their check list?Sandpit said:
Weird isn't it? Doesn't look like it will get much coverage though, there's lots of other news today apart from an empty Queen's Speech. The cynic in me says that the doctors' dispute news was very well timed.Plato_Says said:
Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.Casino_Royale said:PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.
Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.
All old news now though, only one story for the rest of today and it's not looking good for Egyptair 804.0 -
Glass mansions home to some leavers
... "Leave have issued wild attacks on the integrity of those voicing inconvenient views."
and yet
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · 31m31 minutes ago
Steve Baker: Remain campaigners – including Downing Street – must stop these nasty personal attacks | Con Home
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FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've got a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.Sandpit said:On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.
I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.0 -
I'm very suspicious. A massive reshuffle rendering a QS irrelevant? Preparing for post result major incident political triage?runnymede said:
The pro-EU 'unpopular front' vs. the rest?Plato_Says said:
Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.Casino_Royale said:PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.
Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.0 -
Sandpit said:
Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html0 -
Local man involved...DavidL said:
I sometimes wonder if there is a plane in the world that manages to take off without a Brit on board. Is it on their check list?Sandpit said:
Weird isn't it? Doesn't look like it will get much coverage though, there's lots of other news today apart from an empty Queen's Speech. The cynic in me says that the doctors' dispute news was very well timed.Plato_Says said:
Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.Casino_Royale said:PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.
Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.
All old news now though, only one story for the rest of today and it's not looking good for Egyptair 804.0 -
Good article. I'll add another factor, which was a big one in Scotland, and likely applies here too. Supporters of the status quo aren't engaged by the referendum, unlike supporters of change, because they didn't want the exercise in the first place. They may appear as less committed or less likely to turn out.0
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Interesting. And the really positive thing is that Jeremy is going away on holiday so he won't spoil things.NickPalmer said:
FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've have a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.Sandpit said:On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.
I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.
The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.
I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.0 -
Always good to hear reports from the inside, thanks Nick. Maybe turnout won't be that bad then.NickPalmer said:
FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've have a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.Sandpit said:On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.
I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.
Looks at Betfair turnout market and sees 60-65% at 4 (3/1) and 65-70% at 5 (4/1), maybe more value there than the header's suggestion of the 1/4.0 -
@politicshome: Transcript: Brexit MP Steve Baker tells #r4today his three reasons for speaking out about Remain campaigners - https://t.co/leBYCUiYiJ (£)
@rafaelbehr: And yet he fails to include 'because we are losing a fight that we picked and it hurts', which is the actual reason. https://t.co/jVgAQ6G6yA0 -
these are fine
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · May 17
It's fitting that serial liar Cameron should wheel out his pal Heseltine - the Eurofanatic who knifed Margaret Thatcher - to attack Boris.
Simon Richards Retweeted
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnmep · May 17
Wouldn't be a huge surprise if in five years time Cam, Os & Carney were all on mega money with Goldman or other pro-Remain banks, would it?
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · May 11
4 more good reasons to #VoteLeave - Blair, Brown, Cameron and Major: four Prime Ministers who led us into economic disasters & illegal wars.
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · May 5
Only when Japan has compensated the millions of victims of its war crimes should we take its Prime Minister's advice on how to vote.
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@Sandpit There are many interesting side-markets but I wanted to look head-on at how the race was going. I may well do a tour of the side-markets in future posts.0
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Seriously? I suppose that there might be a Scottish tory who didn't turn out to vote remain somewhere. Not met or heard of such a person but it is possible.FF43 said:Good article. I'll add another factor, which was a big one in Scotland, and likely applies here too. Supporters of the status quo aren't engaged by the referendum, unlike supporters of change, because they didn't want the exercise in the first place. They may appear as less committed or less likely to turn out.
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@DPJHodges: Out campaigners: "If we win Cameron has to go". "If we lose Cameron has to reach out to us".0
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I believe, on balance and not especially strongly, that Remain will win but the telephone polls are poor at identifying right wing opinion and generate 'shy right' responses.
Potential flaws with telephone polls were again illustrated yesterday in the British Social Attitudes post election review briefing from John Curtice.
The experience of researchers (face to face) is that Labour/left wing voters are much easier to contact in the chase for response. There seems little reason to believe that peculiarity is not being continued now on the telephone.
It was visible yet again in yesterday's Ipsos-Mori, with another Ed Miliband is a Landslide PM sample being found with excesses of 2015 Lab voters, 2015 Lib Dems and public sector workers in the sample.
Obviously, online polls have the well known problem of activist infiltration and this can lead to overstatement of UKIP, but in 2015 the internet was much better at gauging overall right wing opinion/tendency.
The Populus revelation about the vast discrepancy between Landline/Mobile outcomes also makes me very wary of telephone polls. I believe a younger person with a mobile is far easier to contact than an older person or someone on a landline because:
a) A mobile is always carried:
b) Younger people live on them;
c) Older people are more likely to block/ignore contact;
I'm still showing green on turnout between 55% and 65% and have leave on >47.5 which I'm less confident about, though I think it will be close.0 -
Isn't it all a bit distorted in Scotland by the SNP officially being pro-Remain but actually wanting Leave to win?DavidL said:
Interesting. And the really positive thing is that Jeremy is going away on holiday so he won't spoil things.NickPalmer said:
FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've have a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.Sandpit said:On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.
I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.
The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.
I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.
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Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.CarlottaVance said:Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.0 -
That's perfectly correct on both counts, in just the same way that Nick Clegg could demand Gordon Brown's head but that Ed Miliband could never have demanded Nick Clegg's head. It's the perk of being the junior partner in a coalition.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Out campaigners: "If we win Cameron has to go". "If we lose Cameron has to reach out to us".
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Looks like Hamilton is taking the full blame for the Spanish collision. Despite all evidence to the contrary. Can't see him lasting here until 2018. Rosberg contact up this year.
Mercedes' bosses send warning to Hamilton after collision with Rosberg in Spanish GP
LEWIS HAMILTON has been warned by Mercedes' bosses that he is "too aggressive" after the collision with Nico Rosberg which ended their race at the Spanish Grand Prix was labelled "stupid".
"It is stupid, we could have won this race," said Mercedes' non-executive chairman Niki Lauda. "Lewis is too aggressive. I need to talk to them and hear their explanation."
Daily Express.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Interesting case but the odds are too short to tempt me.0 -
Or for the PM to stand down later this year, whatever the result? We already know David Cameron will not lead the party into the next general election; winning the referendum will secure his legacy; insulting President Trump will be forgotten under a new PM.Plato_Says said:
I'm very suspicious. A massive reshuffle rendering a QS irrelevant? Preparing for post result major incident political triage?runnymede said:
The pro-EU 'unpopular front' vs. the rest?Plato_Says said:
Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.Casino_Royale said:PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.
Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.0 -
Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.Sandpit said:
Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.CarlottaVance said:Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.
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With the amount of activist members who have neglected to renew their direct debits lately it is hardly surprising the rest are overworked.NickPalmer said:
FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've got a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.Sandpit said:On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.
I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.0 -
Sky said it was only 1/3rd full too - a sign of their collapsed industry. EDIT - Sky saying it was a beacon, last pilot contact as they left Greek airspace.Sandpit said:
Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.CarlottaVance said:Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.0 -
There is definitely an element of the SNP who want Brexit to trigger a second referendum but how large they are I don't know. It does seem to be the case, unlike Nick's description of Labour, that they are going to put very little time and effort into encouraging their supporters to the polling stations.SouthamObserver said:
Isn't it all a bit distorted in Scotland by the SNP officially being pro-Remain but actually wanting Leave to win?DavidL said:
Interesting. And the really positive thing is that Jeremy is going away on holiday so he won't spoil things.NickPalmer said:
FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've have a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.Sandpit said:On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.
I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.
The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.
I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.
Labour in Scotland are entirely focussed on licking their wounds and the Tories are still in party mode. There will be some Scottish Tories voting leave (like me) but no one wants to be seen publically disagreeing with Ruth at this point.
It does not help leave that UKIP have a minimal presence or organisation here. I will be frankly amazed if Scotland breaks 50% on turnout. It may drag the whole UK figure down a touch.0 -
AlastairMeeks said:
@Sandpit There are many interesting side-markets but I wanted to look head-on at how the race was going. I may well do a tour of the side-markets in future posts.
There's also a good BF under/over market which they've set at 47.5 leave/52.5 remain. Better priced at 1.5 (1/2) over 52.5% for those who don't think it will be close.0 -
O/T AGW.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2016040 -
murali_s said:
O/T AGW.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604
If true, that only shows GW, not AGW.
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If the pitiful amount of posters so far is anything to go by I wouldnt count on it.ThomasNashe said:
I think turnout will be a lot higher than you imply. People might be bored and irritated by the campaign, but they realise the importance of the vote - much more consequential than a mere general election.Sandpit said:On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.
I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.0 -
Yes, 69 PoB, A320 seats 180-200 depending on configuration.Plato_Says said:
Sky said it was only 1/3rd full too - a sign of their collapsed industry. EDIT - Sky saying it was a beacon, last pilot contact as they left Greek airspace.Sandpit said:
Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.CarlottaVance said:Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.
The airline would have been losing money with those load factors, possibly kept alive only by the low oil price and/or govt support.
ELT beacon makes sense, there would have been a lot of people searching very quickly given all the military activity in the southern Med.
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Carney previously worked at GoldmanScrapheap_as_was said:these are fine
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · May 17
It's fitting that serial liar Cameron should wheel out his pal Heseltine - the Eurofanatic who knifed Margaret Thatcher - to attack Boris.
Simon Richards Retweeted
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnmep · May 17
Wouldn't be a huge surprise if in five years time Cam, Os & Carney were all on mega money with Goldman or other pro-Remain banks, would it?
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · May 11
4 more good reasons to #VoteLeave - Blair, Brown, Cameron and Major: four Prime Ministers who led us into economic disasters & illegal wars.
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · May 5
Only when Japan has compensated the millions of victims of its war crimes should we take its Prime Minister's advice on how to vote.0 -
Meanwhile, new body armour for soldiers is lighter. But the webbing snaps, it barely fits in the new rucksacks, there's not enough storage space, it's hard to put on in the dark and hard to get up when you've gone to ground:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36327103
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And your hypothesis for the warming we have seen over past 100 years or so?MarkHopkins said:murali_s said:O/T AGW.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604
If true, that only shows GW, not AGW.
And what's not true about the report?0 -
Reports that it was on a three leg flight - with a stop in Tunisia too. Haven't we had bombs placed onboard at other locations and detonated later? Sky expert said only 10% of airplane 'accidents' happen whilst cruising.SouthamObserver said:
Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.Sandpit said:
Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.CarlottaVance said:Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.0 -
murali_s said:
O/T AGW.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604
Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.0 -
Can anyone who supports the theory of AGW give any recommendations as to what the entire world population can actually do about it...without starving half of that population to death.0
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Its almost beyond belief that such things could not be adequately trialled and tested before being rolled out. 10lb of weight is a serious upside though.Morris_Dancer said:Meanwhile, new body armour for soldiers is lighter. But the webbing snaps, it barely fits in the new rucksacks, there's not enough storage space, it's hard to put on in the dark and hard to get up when you've gone to ground:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-363271030 -
Mr. Dodd, we could reduce methane emissions from cows by eating more meat:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0O_VYcsIk80 -
Which is why I thought Le Monde's swift "missile fired from Syria or Libya" blackly funny (along with highly improbable) let's hope no more Paris departures come to grief today,SouthamObserver said:
Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.Sandpit said:
Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.CarlottaVance said:Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.0 -
MD Good idea..we shall put that down as number one..Eat more Beef,,0
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Mr. L, the armour will weigh even less after the webbing snaps...0
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This thread implies the 3.6 available on 50.01 - 55.0 Percent REMAIN (Betfair) simply MUST be value.
Proof:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFeWpCA9FxhrGq-x-JTPnyxnnDT-pJ8lEZM6_jWd2yA/edit?usp=sharing0 -
So you do agree that AGW is happening then? Baby steps and all that...richardDodd said:Can anyone who supports the theory of AGW give any recommendations as to what the entire world population can actually do about it...without starving half of that population to death.
0 -
MD Why not put the old webbing on the new armour.0
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That is EPICMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Dodd, we could reduce methane emissions from cows by eating more meat:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0O_VYcsIk8
0 -
Several SCon msps are for out aren't they? Though I accept discretion would be the better part of valour in this case.DavidL said:
There is definitely an element of the SNP who want Brexit to trigger a second referendum but how large they are I don't know. It does seem to be the case, unlike Nick's description of Labour, that they are going to put very little time and effort into encouraging their supporters to the polling stations.SouthamObserver said:
Isn't it all a bit distorted in Scotland by the SNP officially being pro-Remain but actually wanting Leave to win?DavidL said:
Interesting. And the really positive thing is that Jeremy is going away on holiday so he won't spoil things.NickPalmer said:
FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've have a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.Sandpit said:On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.
I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.
The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.
I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.
Labour in Scotland are entirely focussed on licking their wounds and the Tories are still in party mode. There will be some Scottish Tories voting leave (like me) but no one wants to be seen publically disagreeing with Ruth at this point.
It does not help leave that UKIP have a minimal presence or organisation here. I will be frankly amazed if Scotland breaks 50% on turnout. It may drag the whole UK figure down a touch.0 -
Yes, well, take my report for what it is - info from one of the strongest Labour wards in Britain, with a membership of over 10% of the electorate, full of enthusiastic Guardianistas who see political activity as a major part of their lives. That isn't typical - really I just meant to say that the machine in Corbyn heartland is buzzing, which is a useful little piece of the jigsaw as we try to guess turnout, because some in the media mistakenly think that Corbynistas aren't too bothered or closet Leavers.DavidL said:
The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.
I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.
But it's coming up a lot in my social circle in London too (work, poker, etc.). I think London turnout is going to be high.0 -
Glass half full post:
People were rightly furious at the infighting between the Blair and Brown factions while they were in office as it was hugely damaging to the country. However, aside from "insider" briefings, no one really knew what was happening, how many phones were being thrown, who was being bullied.
Thing about the Cons split is that it is being done in public, it is hugely civilised and, even with Hezza-type contributions, each side is pushing the line "respect, don't agree".
I think that this might play better with the public who appreciate differences of opinion if handled properly and with respect (they don't forgive boxers [or MMA fighters..], for example, who don't touch gloves..)0 -
Brilliant! When Mrs Sandpit asks what I'd like with the steak, she's thinking of the various types of green stuff, I'm thinking of whether to go for the BBQ or the Pepper Sauce.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dodd, we could reduce methane emissions from cows by eating more meat:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0O_VYcsIk8 0 -
There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.Paul_Bedfordshire said:murali_s said:O/T AGW.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604
Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.0 -
I loved the intensive plant farming bit.Sandpit said:
Brilliant! When Mrs Sandpit asks what I'd like with the steak, she's thinking of the various types of green stuff, I'm thinking of whether to go for the BBQ or the Pepper Sauce.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dodd, we could reduce methane emissions from cows by eating more meat:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0O_VYcsIk80 -
Active Tracking showed a direct flight. Few years ago I used to take the Paris Cairo flight quite regularly when I was working out there. I don't recollect this flight being split destination previously but of course with lower footfall it might be considered necessary these days.Plato_Says said:
Reports that it was on a three leg flight - with a stop in Tunisia too. Haven't we had bombs placed onboard at other locations and detonated later? Sky expert said only 10% of airplane 'accidents' happen whilst cruising.SouthamObserver said:
Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.Sandpit said:
Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.CarlottaVance said:Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.0 -
Murali s No I don't agree with the AGW principle..The climate is always changing .. we are just experiencing another one..
AGW enthusiasts never come up with a solution ..they merely whinge0 -
I think the giveaway term there was "theory"murali_s said:
So you do agree that AGW is happening then? Baby steps and all that...richardDodd said:Can anyone who supports the theory of AGW give any recommendations as to what the entire world population can actually do about it...without starving half of that population to death.
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London, though, has a large BME population, whose turnout is likely to be low, according to the BES.NickPalmer said:
Yes, well, take my report for what it is - info from one of the strongest Labour wards in Britain, with a membership of over 10% of the electorate, full of enthusiastic Guardianistas who see political activity as a major part of their lives. That isn't typical - really I just meant to say that the machine in Corbyn heartland is buzzing, which is a useful little piece of the jigsaw as we try to guess turnout, because some in the media mistakenly think that Corbynistas aren't too bothered or closet Leavers.DavidL said:
The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.
I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.
But it's coming up a lot in my social circle in London too (work, poker, etc.). I think London turnout is going to be high.0 -
It was - r/t Paris direct - previous trip had been to Tunis (but then again a few flights back had been to Brussels)Moses_ said:
Active Tracking showed a direct flight. Few years ago I used to take the Paris Cairo flight quite regularly when I was working out there. I don't recollect this flight being split destination previously but of course with lower footfall it might be considered necessary these days.Plato_Says said:
Reports that it was on a three leg flight - with a stop in Tunisia too. Haven't we had bombs placed onboard at other locations and detonated later? Sky expert said only 10% of airplane 'accidents' happen whilst cruising.SouthamObserver said:
Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.Sandpit said:
Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.CarlottaVance said:Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/su-gcc0 -
That's a very good point. I hadn't considered that.FF43 said:Good article. I'll add another factor, which was a big one in Scotland, and likely applies here too. Supporters of the status quo aren't engaged by the referendum, unlike supporters of change, because they didn't want the exercise in the first place. They may appear as less committed or less likely to turn out.
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Hard to disagree with that.Pulpstar said:This thread implies the 3.6 available on 50.01 - 55.0 Percent REMAIN (Betfair) simply MUST be value.
Proof:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFeWpCA9FxhrGq-x-JTPnyxnnDT-pJ8lEZM6_jWd2yA/edit?usp=sharing0 -
Liking Mike Bloomberg. Shame he couldn't run.0
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Flight was direct, Paris to Cairo. The same plane operated Cairo>Tunis>Cairo>Paris earlier in the day.Plato_Says said:
Reports that it was on a three leg flight - with a stop in Tunisia too. Haven't we had bombs placed onboard at other locations and detonated later? Sky expert said only 10% of airplane 'accidents' happen whilst cruising.SouthamObserver said:
Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.Sandpit said:
Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.CarlottaVance said:Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/su-gcc0 -
Sandpit..I have not consumed beef for a number of years...forgotten what it tastes like..0
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Where in London do you live Nick? Has anyone been brave enough to come out as a Leaver?NickPalmer said:
Yes, well, take my report for what it is - info from one of the strongest Labour wards in Britain, with a membership of over 10% of the electorate, full of enthusiastic Guardianistas who see political activity as a major part of their lives. That isn't typical - really I just meant to say that the machine in Corbyn heartland is buzzing, which is a useful little piece of the jigsaw as we try to guess turnout, because some in the media mistakenly think that Corbynistas aren't too bothered or closet Leavers.DavidL said:
The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.
I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.
But it's coming up a lot in my social circle in London too (work, poker, etc.). I think London turnout is going to be high.
Thanks for your words of encouragement to me yesterday, by the way.0 -
yes and correlation and causation are closely linked thefeoire Euroescepticism causes global warming .FeersumEnjineeya said:
There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.Paul_Bedfordshire said:murali_s said:O/T AGW.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604
Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.
Deny it if you can !0 -
Miss Plato, plants emit oxygen. Eating them is harmful to the environment.
0 -
I can believe that given the epic amount of hot air generated by some LeaversAlanbrooke said:
yes and correlation and causation are closely linked thefeoire Euroescepticism causes global warming .FeersumEnjineeya said:
There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.Paul_Bedfordshire said:murali_s said:O/T AGW.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604
Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.
Deny it if you can !0 -
GW is an observation- it's the A part that's the theory- and the language of its proponents to their critics - "deniers" is that of Faith, not Science, does them no favours.murali_s said:
So you do agree that AGW is happening then? Baby steps and all that...richardDodd said:Can anyone who supports the theory of AGW give any recommendations as to what the entire world population can actually do about it...without starving half of that population to death.
0 -
Mr. Enjineeya, there's a near perfect correlation between likelihood of drowning, and sales of ice-cream.0
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There's probably a positive correlation between those who are fed up with unelected EU bureaucrats telling us what to do, and those who are fed up with unelected environmentalists telling us what to do, yes.FeersumEnjineeya said:
There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.Paul_Bedfordshire said:murali_s said:O/T AGW.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604
Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.0 -
Ok with you now. Have done a many split destination flights so thought that was the reasoning.CarlottaVance said:
It was - r/t Paris direct - previous trip had been to Tunis (but then again a few flights back had been to Brussels)Moses_ said:
Active Tracking showed a direct flight. Few years ago I used to take the Paris Cairo flight quite regularly when I was working out there. I don't recollect this flight being split destination previously but of course with lower footfall it might be considered necessary these days.Plato_Says said:
Reports that it was on a three leg flight - with a stop in Tunisia too. Haven't we had bombs placed onboard at other locations and detonated later? Sky expert said only 10% of airplane 'accidents' happen whilst cruising.SouthamObserver said:
Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.Sandpit said:
Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.CarlottaVance said:Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.Sandpit said:Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/su-gcc
I guess Brussels with all the activity there would be a tough one. From my experience Tunis probably not so hard.0 -
Have a steak for dinner tonight then!richardDodd said:Sandpit..I have not consumed beef for a number of years...forgotten what it tastes like..
0 -
Leaving EU would endanger enviroment, Ed Miliband warns https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/environment/environmental-protection/news/74500/leaving-eu-would-endanger-enviroment-edAlanbrooke said:
yes and correlation and causation are closely linked thefeoire Euroescepticism causes global warming .FeersumEnjineeya said:
There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.Paul_Bedfordshire said:murali_s said:O/T AGW.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604
Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.
Deny it if you can !0 -
Yes, I believe it's called independent thought. I highly recommend trying it if you need to fill an idle hour sometime.FeersumEnjineeya said:
There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.Paul_Bedfordshire said:murali_s said:O/T AGW.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604
Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.0 -
And the cucumber substituteMorris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, plants emit oxygen. Eating them is harmful to the environment.
0 -
How can hot air compete with War, Famine Plague, No booze cruises ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I can believe that given the epic amount of hot air generated by some LeaversAlanbrooke said:
yes and correlation and causation are closely linked thefeoire Euroescepticism causes global warming .FeersumEnjineeya said:
There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.Paul_Bedfordshire said:murali_s said:O/T AGW.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604
Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.
Deny it if you can !0 -
Nice one! LOL!TheScreamingEagles said:
I can believe that given the epic amount of hot air generated by some LeaversAlanbrooke said:
yes and correlation and causation are closely linked thefeoire Euroescepticism causes global warming .FeersumEnjineeya said:
There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.Paul_Bedfordshire said:murali_s said:O/T AGW.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604
Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.
Deny it if you can !0 -
Sandpit Thank you..but no..I actually like cows as animals..0
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Talking of hot air, have Vote Leave followed through with their pledge to take ITV to court over Farage's appearance?0
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Sounds like China may be taking a more hostile approach in the South China Sea:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-36328464
Be interesting to see if this dodgy interception is a one-off, or a new policy.0 -
James Forsyth writes a very interesting article in this week's Spectator - rings very true IMHO:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/dont-rule-out-referendum-two-the-tory-leave-genies-out-of-the-bottle/0 -
Sky saying the model of aircraft has only reported 68 mechanical failures in 28yrs. That's amazing reliability.0
