politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet

Given the amount of heat that has been generated by the EU referendum, there has been surprisingly little discussion about the actual chances of the main event.  It’s time to put that right.

Read the full story here

RobD

Glorious first!

Sandpit

2nd like Liverpool last night.

adamandcat

Good article

Sandpit

On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.

I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.

Plato_Says

Apparently, Merkel is looking at a Turkey style deal with Sudan - what could possibly go wrong. Libya next?

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/supping-with-the-devil-wont-solve-the-migrant-crisis-tmkrpvpjt

foxinsoxuk

I am not so sure.

I find that Shy Remainers are at least as common as Shy Leavers, and not just below the line here. Leavers are often very vocal to the point of evangelic zeal that has Remainers backing quietly away and glancing at escape routes.

1/4 does not look value to me when polling is so problematic. I think the value is on Leave.

I think that the Leave campaigns mockery of the consequences of Brexit are helping establish a meme of risk, and also that the focus on immigration and hostility to fellow europeans has repelled the undecided as much as it has reinforced the Leave core vote. Leave have themselves to blame for a poor campaign, though Remain has been no great shakes either.

Paul_Bedfordshire

Are we allowed to post Limericks here by that well known young Turk Boris Johnson about his esteemed president?

SouthamObserver

Labour big city mayors are the best way to develop a more centrist alternative to Corbyn Labour. How they campaign and what they do in office will be key. But big fish, with large mandates, in London, Manchester, Liverpool etc will create an alternative narrative to the far left's exclusionary, confrontational, infantile approach to politics as well as powerful bases from which to challenge it at the national level. Look out for this over the coming years. But it will be localism that keeps Labour alive while the membership gives the Tories free rein in Westminster.

ThomasNashe

Sandpit said:

On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.

I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.

I think turnout will be a lot higher than you imply. People might be bored and irritated by the campaign, but they realise the importance of the vote - much more consequential than a mere general election.

Plato_Says

Sandpit said:

On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.

I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.

The Sky debates are 8th/9th June IIRC. Not sure of ITV.

Casino_Royale

A fair article.

I do think Leave have a *slightly* better message than Alastair gives them credit for on the money (I think the £350m per week to buy a new hospital is effective politics) justice/human rights (votes for prisoners) and a certain type of voter will find the ability to do global trade deals appealing. In this sense the 5 reasons to Vote Leave leaflet is quite good.

However, the national air war is less good.

The only bit I disagree with is backing Remain at 1/4. If the polls are as unreliable as they seem to be then this doesn't seem to be to be a value bet when you consider the risks of 'events' over the next 5 weeks.

A 75% chance does not equal a 100% chance.

Plato_Says

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Are we allowed to post Limericks here by that well known young Turk Boris Johnson about his esteemed president?

I can't believe his was the best - very tepid I thought. Vogons could do better.

Sandpit

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Casino_Royale

PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.

Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.

Innocent_Abroad

SouthamObserver said:

Labour big city mayors are the best way to develop a more centrist alternative to Corbyn Labour. How they campaign and what they do in office will be key. But big fish, with large mandates, in London, Manchester, Liverpool etc will create an alternative narrative to the far left's exclusionary, confrontational, infantile approach to politics as well as powerful bases from which to challenge it at the national level. Look out for this over the coming years. But it will be localism that keeps Labour alive while the membership gives the Tories free rein in Westminster.

Until the Corbynite membership decides to expel the likes of Sadiq Khan...

Plato_Says

Casino_Royale said:

PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.

Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.

Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.

runnymede

Plato_Says said:

Casino_Royale said:

PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.

Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.

Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.

The pro-EU 'unpopular front' vs. the rest?

Sandpit

Plato_Says said:

Casino_Royale said:

PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.

Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.

Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.

Weird isn't it? Doesn't look like it will get much coverage though, there's lots of other news today apart from an empty Queen's Speech. The cynic in me says that the doctors' dispute news was very well timed.

All old news now though, only one story for the rest of today and it's not looking good for Egyptair 804.

Sean_F

A fine article.

DavidL

Sandpit said:

Plato_Says said:

Casino_Royale said:

PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.

Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.

Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.

Weird isn't it? Doesn't look like it will get much coverage though, there's lots of other news today apart from an empty Queen's Speech. The cynic in me says that the doctors' dispute news was very well timed.

All old news now though, only one story for the rest of today and it's not looking good for Egyptair 804.

I sometimes wonder if there is a plane in the world that manages to take off without a Brit on board. Is it on their check list?

Scrapheap_as_was

Glass mansions home to some leavers

... "Leave have issued wild attacks on the integrity of those voicing inconvenient views."

and yet

Simon Richards ‏@simplysimontfa · 31m31 minutes ago
Steve Baker: Remain campaigners – including Downing Street – must stop these nasty personal attacks | Con Home

NickPalmer

Sandpit said:

On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.

I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.

FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've got a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.

Plato_Says

runnymede said:

Plato_Says said:

Casino_Royale said:

PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.

Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.

Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.

The pro-EU 'unpopular front' vs. the rest?

I'm very suspicious. A massive reshuffle rendering a QS irrelevant? Preparing for post result major incident political triage?

CarlottaVance

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.

Plato_Says

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Plato_Says said:

Casino_Royale said:

PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.

Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.

Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.

Weird isn't it? Doesn't look like it will get much coverage though, there's lots of other news today apart from an empty Queen's Speech. The cynic in me says that the doctors' dispute news was very well timed.

All old news now though, only one story for the rest of today and it's not looking good for Egyptair 804.

I sometimes wonder if there is a plane in the world that manages to take off without a Brit on board. Is it on their check list?

Local man involved...

FF43

Good article. I'll add another factor, which was a big one in Scotland, and likely applies here too. Supporters of the status quo aren't engaged by the referendum, unlike supporters of change, because they didn't want the exercise in the first place. They may appear as less committed or less likely to turn out.

DavidL

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.

I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.

FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've have a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.

Interesting. And the really positive thing is that Jeremy is going away on holiday so he won't spoil things.

The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.

I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.

Sandpit

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.

I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.

FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've have a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.

Always good to hear reports from the inside, thanks Nick. Maybe turnout won't be that bad then.

Looks at Betfair turnout market and sees 60-65% at 4 (3/1) and 65-70% at 5 (4/1), maybe more value there than the header's suggestion of the 1/4.

Scott_P

@politicshome: Transcript: Brexit MP Steve Baker tells #r4today his three reasons for speaking out about Remain campaigners - https://t.co/leBYCUiYiJ (£)

@rafaelbehr: And yet he fails to include 'because we are losing a fight that we picked and it hurts', which is the actual reason. https://t.co/jVgAQ6G6yA

Scrapheap_as_was

these are fine

Simon Richards ‏@simplysimontfa · May 17
It's fitting that serial liar Cameron should wheel out his pal Heseltine - the Eurofanatic who knifed Margaret Thatcher - to attack Boris.

Simon Richards Retweeted
Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep · May 17
Wouldn't be a huge surprise if in five years time Cam, Os & Carney were all on mega money with Goldman or other pro-Remain banks, would it?

Simon Richards ‏@simplysimontfa · May 11
4 more good reasons to #VoteLeave - Blair, Brown, Cameron and Major: four Prime Ministers who led us into economic disasters & illegal wars.

Simon Richards ‏@simplysimontfa · May 5
Only when Japan has compensated the millions of victims of its war crimes should we take its Prime Minister's advice on how to vote.

AlastairMeeks

@Sandpit There are many interesting side-markets but I wanted to look head-on at how the race was going. I may well do a tour of the side-markets in future posts.

DavidL

FF43 said:

Good article. I'll add another factor, which was a big one in Scotland, and likely applies here too. Supporters of the status quo aren't engaged by the referendum, unlike supporters of change, because they didn't want the exercise in the first place. They may appear as less committed or less likely to turn out.

Seriously? I suppose that there might be a Scottish tory who didn't turn out to vote remain somewhere. Not met or heard of such a person but it is possible.

Scott_P

@DPJHodges: Out campaigners: "If we win Cameron has to go". "If we lose Cameron has to reach out to us".

chestnut

I believe, on balance and not especially strongly, that Remain will win but the telephone polls are poor at identifying right wing opinion and generate 'shy right' responses.

Potential flaws with telephone polls were again illustrated yesterday in the British Social Attitudes post election review briefing from John Curtice.

The experience of researchers (face to face) is that Labour/left wing voters are much easier to contact in the chase for response. There seems little reason to believe that peculiarity is not being continued now on the telephone.

It was visible yet again in yesterday's Ipsos-Mori, with another Ed Miliband is a Landslide PM sample being found with excesses of 2015 Lab voters, 2015 Lib Dems and public sector workers in the sample.

Obviously, online polls have the well known problem of activist infiltration and this can lead to overstatement of UKIP, but in 2015 the internet was much better at gauging overall right wing opinion/tendency.

The Populus revelation about the vast discrepancy between Landline/Mobile outcomes also makes me very wary of telephone polls. I believe a younger person with a mobile is far easier to contact than an older person or someone on a landline because:

a) A mobile is always carried:
b) Younger people live on them;
c) Older people are more likely to block/ignore contact;

I'm still showing green on turnout between 55% and 65% and have leave on >47.5 which I'm less confident about, though I think it will be close.

SouthamObserver

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.

I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.

FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've have a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.

Interesting. And the really positive thing is that Jeremy is going away on holiday so he won't spoil things.

The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.

I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.

Isn't it all a bit distorted in Scotland by the SNP officially being pro-Remain but actually wanting Leave to win?

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.

Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.

There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.

AlastairMeeks

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: Out campaigners: "If we win Cameron has to go". "If we lose Cameron has to reach out to us".

That's perfectly correct on both counts, in just the same way that Nick Clegg could demand Gordon Brown's head but that Ed Miliband could never have demanded Nick Clegg's head. It's the perk of being the junior partner in a coalition.

Moses_

Looks like Hamilton is taking the full blame for the Spanish collision. Despite all evidence to the contrary. Can't see him lasting here until 2018. Rosberg contact up this year.

Mercedes' bosses send warning to Hamilton after collision with Rosberg in Spanish GP

LEWIS HAMILTON has been warned by Mercedes' bosses that he is "too aggressive" after the collision with Nico Rosberg which ended their race at the Spanish Grand Prix was labelled "stupid".

"It is stupid, we could have won this race," said Mercedes' non-executive chairman Niki Lauda. "Lewis is too aggressive. I need to talk to them and hear their explanation."


Daily Express.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Interesting case but the odds are too short to tempt me.

DecrepitJohnL

Plato_Says said:

runnymede said:

Plato_Says said:

Casino_Royale said:

PS. On the junior doctors deal, it wouldn't surprise me if the reason this was settled so quickly and (relatively) in favour of the BMA position was due to the EU referendum.

Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.

Lots of deck clearing from HMG, and an almost empty Queen's Speech for Year 2 of a parliament. Anyone would think a GE was in the offing.

The pro-EU 'unpopular front' vs. the rest?

I'm very suspicious. A massive reshuffle rendering a QS irrelevant? Preparing for post result major incident political triage?

Or for the PM to stand down later this year, whatever the result? We already know David Cameron will not lead the party into the next general election; winning the referendum will secure his legacy; insulting President Trump will be forgotten under a new PM.

SouthamObserver

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.

Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.

There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.

Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.

Paul_Bedfordshire

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.

I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.

FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've got a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.

With the amount of activist members who have neglected to renew their direct debits lately it is hardly surprising the rest are overworked.

Plato_Says

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.

Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.

There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.

Sky said it was only 1/3rd full too - a sign of their collapsed industry. EDIT - Sky saying it was a beacon, last pilot contact as they left Greek airspace.

DavidL

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.

I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.

FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've have a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.

Interesting. And the really positive thing is that Jeremy is going away on holiday so he won't spoil things.

The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.

I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.

Isn't it all a bit distorted in Scotland by the SNP officially being pro-Remain but actually wanting Leave to win?

There is definitely an element of the SNP who want Brexit to trigger a second referendum but how large they are I don't know. It does seem to be the case, unlike Nick's description of Labour, that they are going to put very little time and effort into encouraging their supporters to the polling stations.

Labour in Scotland are entirely focussed on licking their wounds and the Tories are still in party mode. There will be some Scottish Tories voting leave (like me) but no one wants to be seen publically disagreeing with Ruth at this point.

It does not help leave that UKIP have a minimal presence or organisation here. I will be frankly amazed if Scotland breaks 50% on turnout. It may drag the whole UK figure down a touch.

Sandpit

AlastairMeeks said:

@Sandpit There are many interesting side-markets but I wanted to look head-on at how the race was going. I may well do a tour of the side-markets in future posts.

There's also a good BF under/over market which they've set at 47.5 leave/52.5 remain. Better priced at 1.5 (1/2) over 52.5% for those who don't think it will be close.

murali_s

O/T AGW.

April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604

MarkHopkins

murali_s said:

O/T AGW.

April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604

If true, that only shows GW, not AGW.

Paul_Bedfordshire

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.

I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.

I think turnout will be a lot higher than you imply. People might be bored and irritated by the campaign, but they realise the importance of the vote - much more consequential than a mere general election.

If the pitiful amount of posters so far is anything to go by I wouldnt count on it.

Sandpit

Plato_Says said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.

Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.

There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.

Sky said it was only 1/3rd full too - a sign of their collapsed industry. EDIT - Sky saying it was a beacon, last pilot contact as they left Greek airspace.

Yes, 69 PoB, A320 seats 180-200 depending on configuration.

The airline would have been losing money with those load factors, possibly kept alive only by the low oil price and/or govt support.

ELT beacon makes sense, there would have been a lot of people searching very quickly given all the military activity in the southern Med.

HYUFD

Scrapheap_as_was said:

these are fine

Simon Richards ‏@simplysimontfa · May 17
It's fitting that serial liar Cameron should wheel out his pal Heseltine - the Eurofanatic who knifed Margaret Thatcher - to attack Boris.

Simon Richards Retweeted
Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep · May 17
Wouldn't be a huge surprise if in five years time Cam, Os & Carney were all on mega money with Goldman or other pro-Remain banks, would it?

Simon Richards ‏@simplysimontfa · May 11
4 more good reasons to #VoteLeave - Blair, Brown, Cameron and Major: four Prime Ministers who led us into economic disasters & illegal wars.

Simon Richards ‏@simplysimontfa · May 5
Only when Japan has compensated the millions of victims of its war crimes should we take its Prime Minister's advice on how to vote.

Carney previously worked at Goldman

Morris_Dancer

Meanwhile, new body armour for soldiers is lighter. But the webbing snaps, it barely fits in the new rucksacks, there's not enough storage space, it's hard to put on in the dark and hard to get up when you've gone to ground:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36327103

murali_s

MarkHopkins said:

murali_s said:

O/T AGW.

April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604

If true, that only shows GW, not AGW.

And your hypothesis for the warming we have seen over past 100 years or so?

And what's not true about the report?

Plato_Says

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.

Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.

There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.

Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.

Reports that it was on a three leg flight - with a stop in Tunisia too. Haven't we had bombs placed onboard at other locations and detonated later? Sky expert said only 10% of airplane 'accidents' happen whilst cruising.

Paul_Bedfordshire

murali_s said:

O/T AGW.

April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604

Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.

richardDodd

Can anyone who supports the theory of AGW give any recommendations as to what the entire world population can actually do about it...without starving half of that population to death.

DavidL

Morris_Dancer said:

Meanwhile, new body armour for soldiers is lighter. But the webbing snaps, it barely fits in the new rucksacks, there's not enough storage space, it's hard to put on in the dark and hard to get up when you've gone to ground:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36327103

Its almost beyond belief that such things could not be adequately trialled and tested before being rolled out. 10lb of weight is a serious upside though.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Dodd, we could reduce methane emissions from cows by eating more meat:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0O_VYcsIk8

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.

Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.

There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.

Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.

Which is why I thought Le Monde's swift "missile fired from Syria or Libya" blackly funny (along with highly improbable) let's hope no more Paris departures come to grief today,

richardDodd

MD Good idea..we shall put that down as number one..Eat more Beef,,

Morris_Dancer

Mr. L, the armour will weigh even less after the webbing snaps...

Pulpstar

This thread implies the 3.6 available on 50.01 - 55.0 Percent REMAIN (Betfair) simply MUST be value.

Proof:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFeWpCA9FxhrGq-x-JTPnyxnnDT-pJ8lEZM6_jWd2yA/edit?usp=sharing

murali_s

richardDodd said:

Can anyone who supports the theory of AGW give any recommendations as to what the entire world population can actually do about it...without starving half of that population to death.

So you do agree that AGW is happening then? Baby steps and all that...

richardDodd

MD Why not put the old webbing on the new armour.

Plato_Says

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dodd, we could reduce methane emissions from cows by eating more meat:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0O_VYcsIk8

That is EPIC

Theuniondivvie

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

On topic: disagree. The value is in Leave, there's five weeks to go and any black swan "Events" between now and then are much more likely to be in favour of Leave.

I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.

FWIW, the Labour machine now seems fully engaged. I've have a list of the TWENTY FIVE canvassing and leafleting events for Remain that my local ward expects me to do between now and polling day. Whatever else people think of me, I don't think anyone would accuse me of lack of dedication to the cause, but hell, that's something nearly every day. What's that like? It's like a General Election schedule, is what it is.

Interesting. And the really positive thing is that Jeremy is going away on holiday so he won't spoil things.

The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.

I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.

Isn't it all a bit distorted in Scotland by the SNP officially being pro-Remain but actually wanting Leave to win?

There is definitely an element of the SNP who want Brexit to trigger a second referendum but how large they are I don't know. It does seem to be the case, unlike Nick's description of Labour, that they are going to put very little time and effort into encouraging their supporters to the polling stations.

Labour in Scotland are entirely focussed on licking their wounds and the Tories are still in party mode. There will be some Scottish Tories voting leave (like me) but no one wants to be seen publically disagreeing with Ruth at this point.

It does not help leave that UKIP have a minimal presence or organisation here. I will be frankly amazed if Scotland breaks 50% on turnout. It may drag the whole UK figure down a touch.

Several SCon msps are for out aren't they? Though I accept discretion would be the better part of valour in this case.

NickPalmer

DavidL said:

The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.

I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.

Yes, well, take my report for what it is - info from one of the strongest Labour wards in Britain, with a membership of over 10% of the electorate, full of enthusiastic Guardianistas who see political activity as a major part of their lives. That isn't typical - really I just meant to say that the machine in Corbyn heartland is buzzing, which is a useful little piece of the jigsaw as we try to guess turnout, because some in the media mistakenly think that Corbynistas aren't too bothered or closet Leavers.

But it's coming up a lot in my social circle in London too (work, poker, etc.). I think London turnout is going to be high.

TOPPING

Glass half full post:

People were rightly furious at the infighting between the Blair and Brown factions while they were in office as it was hugely damaging to the country. However, aside from "insider" briefings, no one really knew what was happening, how many phones were being thrown, who was being bullied.

Thing about the Cons split is that it is being done in public, it is hugely civilised and, even with Hezza-type contributions, each side is pushing the line "respect, don't agree".

I think that this might play better with the public who appreciate differences of opinion if handled properly and with respect (they don't forgive boxers [or MMA fighters..], for example, who don't touch gloves..)

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dodd, we could reduce methane emissions from cows by eating more meat:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0O_VYcsIk8

Brilliant! When Mrs Sandpit asks what I'd like with the steak, she's thinking of the various types of green stuff, I'm thinking of whether to go for the BBQ or the Pepper Sauce.

FeersumEnjineeya

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

murali_s said:

O/T AGW.

April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604

Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.

There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.

Plato_Says

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dodd, we could reduce methane emissions from cows by eating more meat:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0O_VYcsIk8

Brilliant! When Mrs Sandpit asks what I'd like with the steak, she's thinking of the various types of green stuff, I'm thinking of whether to go for the BBQ or the Pepper Sauce.

I loved the intensive plant farming bit.

Moses_

Plato_Says said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.

Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.

There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.

Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.

Reports that it was on a three leg flight - with a stop in Tunisia too. Haven't we had bombs placed onboard at other locations and detonated later? Sky expert said only 10% of airplane 'accidents' happen whilst cruising.

Active Tracking showed a direct flight. Few years ago I used to take the Paris Cairo flight quite regularly when I was working out there. I don't recollect this flight being split destination previously but of course with lower footfall it might be considered necessary these days.

richardDodd

Murali s No I don't agree with the AGW principle..The climate is always changing .. we are just experiencing another one..
AGW enthusiasts never come up with a solution ..they merely whinge

Moses_

murali_s said:

richardDodd said:

Can anyone who supports the theory of AGW give any recommendations as to what the entire world population can actually do about it...without starving half of that population to death.

So you do agree that AGW is happening then? Baby steps and all that...

I think the giveaway term there was "theory"

Sean_F

NickPalmer said:

DavidL said:

The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.

I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.

Yes, well, take my report for what it is - info from one of the strongest Labour wards in Britain, with a membership of over 10% of the electorate, full of enthusiastic Guardianistas who see political activity as a major part of their lives. That isn't typical - really I just meant to say that the machine in Corbyn heartland is buzzing, which is a useful little piece of the jigsaw as we try to guess turnout, because some in the media mistakenly think that Corbynistas aren't too bothered or closet Leavers.

But it's coming up a lot in my social circle in London too (work, poker, etc.). I think London turnout is going to be high.

London, though, has a large BME population, whose turnout is likely to be low, according to the BES.

CarlottaVance

Moses_ said:

Plato_Says said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.

Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.

There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.

Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.

Reports that it was on a three leg flight - with a stop in Tunisia too. Haven't we had bombs placed onboard at other locations and detonated later? Sky expert said only 10% of airplane 'accidents' happen whilst cruising.

Active Tracking showed a direct flight. Few years ago I used to take the Paris Cairo flight quite regularly when I was working out there. I don't recollect this flight being split destination previously but of course with lower footfall it might be considered necessary these days.

It was - r/t Paris direct - previous trip had been to Tunis (but then again a few flights back had been to Brussels)

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/su-gcc

Barnesian

FF43 said:

Good article. I'll add another factor, which was a big one in Scotland, and likely applies here too. Supporters of the status quo aren't engaged by the referendum, unlike supporters of change, because they didn't want the exercise in the first place. They may appear as less committed or less likely to turn out.

That's a very good point. I hadn't considered that.

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

This thread implies the 3.6 available on 50.01 - 55.0 Percent REMAIN (Betfair) simply MUST be value.

Proof:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFeWpCA9FxhrGq-x-JTPnyxnnDT-pJ8lEZM6_jWd2yA/edit?usp=sharing

Hard to disagree with that.

TOPPING

Liking Mike Bloomberg. Shame he couldn't run.

Sandpit

Plato_Says said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.

Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.

There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.

Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.

Reports that it was on a three leg flight - with a stop in Tunisia too. Haven't we had bombs placed onboard at other locations and detonated later? Sky expert said only 10% of airplane 'accidents' happen whilst cruising.

Flight was direct, Paris to Cairo. The same plane operated Cairo>Tunis>Cairo>Paris earlier in the day.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/su-gcc

richardDodd

Sandpit..I have not consumed beef for a number of years...forgotten what it tastes like..

TOPPING

TOPPING said:

Liking Mike Bloomberg. Shame he couldn't run.

Edit: but then I suppose I am a member of the metropolitan liberal elite so I would say that, wouldn't I.

Casino_Royale

NickPalmer said:

DavidL said:

The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.

I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.

Yes, well, take my report for what it is - info from one of the strongest Labour wards in Britain, with a membership of over 10% of the electorate, full of enthusiastic Guardianistas who see political activity as a major part of their lives. That isn't typical - really I just meant to say that the machine in Corbyn heartland is buzzing, which is a useful little piece of the jigsaw as we try to guess turnout, because some in the media mistakenly think that Corbynistas aren't too bothered or closet Leavers.

But it's coming up a lot in my social circle in London too (work, poker, etc.). I think London turnout is going to be high.

Where in London do you live Nick? Has anyone been brave enough to come out as a Leaver?

Thanks for your words of encouragement to me yesterday, by the way.

Alanbrooke

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

murali_s said:

O/T AGW.

April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604

Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.

There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.

yes and correlation and causation are closely linked thefeoire Euroescepticism causes global warming .

Deny it if you can !

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, plants emit oxygen. Eating them is harmful to the environment.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

murali_s said:

O/T AGW.

April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604

Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.

There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.

yes and correlation and causation are closely linked thefeoire Euroescepticism causes global warming .

Deny it if you can !

I can believe that given the epic amount of hot air generated by some Leavers

CarlottaVance

murali_s said:

richardDodd said:

Can anyone who supports the theory of AGW give any recommendations as to what the entire world population can actually do about it...without starving half of that population to death.

So you do agree that AGW is happening then? Baby steps and all that...

GW is an observation- it's the A part that's the theory- and the language of its proponents to their critics - "deniers" is that of Faith, not Science, does them no favours.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Enjineeya, there's a near perfect correlation between likelihood of drowning, and sales of ice-cream.

Sandpit

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

murali_s said:

O/T AGW.

April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604

Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.

There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.

There's probably a positive correlation between those who are fed up with unelected EU bureaucrats telling us what to do, and those who are fed up with unelected environmentalists telling us what to do, yes.

Moses_

CarlottaVance said:

Moses_ said:

Plato_Says said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Sandpit said:

Bloomberg News: "The EgyptAir pilot made a distress call before communication was lost, a spokeswoman has said by phone."

From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html

Give the sudden ending of the flight status reports that seems unlikely- more probably it's a reference to the beacons which automatically go off.

Yes, from the timing it looks like the reference is to aircraft mounted ELT that broadcasts on emergency frequencies when it comes into contact with water.

There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.

Big questions for the French too, if it is a bomb. I really hope not.

Reports that it was on a three leg flight - with a stop in Tunisia too. Haven't we had bombs placed onboard at other locations and detonated later? Sky expert said only 10% of airplane 'accidents' happen whilst cruising.

Active Tracking showed a direct flight. Few years ago I used to take the Paris Cairo flight quite regularly when I was working out there. I don't recollect this flight being split destination previously but of course with lower footfall it might be considered necessary these days.

It was - r/t Paris direct - previous trip had been to Tunis (but then again a few flights back had been to Brussels)

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/su-gcc

Ok with you now. Have done a many split destination flights so thought that was the reasoning.

I guess Brussels with all the activity there would be a tough one. From my experience Tunis probably not so hard.

Sandpit

richardDodd said:

Sandpit..I have not consumed beef for a number of years...forgotten what it tastes like..

Have a steak for dinner tonight then!

Plato_Says

Alanbrooke said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

murali_s said:

O/T AGW.

April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604

Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.

There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.

yes and correlation and causation are closely linked thefeoire Euroescepticism causes global warming .

Deny it if you can !

Leaving EU would endanger enviroment, Ed Miliband warns https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/environment/environmental-protection/news/74500/leaving-eu-would-endanger-enviroment-ed

Luckyguy1983

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

murali_s said:

O/T AGW.

April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604

Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.

There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.

Yes, I believe it's called independent thought. I highly recommend trying it if you need to fill an idle hour sometime.

Plato_Says

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, plants emit oxygen. Eating them is harmful to the environment.

And the cucumber substitute

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

murali_s said:

O/T AGW.

April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604

Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.

There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.

yes and correlation and causation are closely linked thefeoire Euroescepticism causes global warming .

Deny it if you can !

I can believe that given the epic amount of hot air generated by some Leavers

How can hot air compete with War, Famine Plague, No booze cruises ?

murali_s

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

murali_s said:

O/T AGW.

April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604

Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.

There seems to be a very close correlation between Euroscepticism and AGW denial.

yes and correlation and causation are closely linked thefeoire Euroescepticism causes global warming .

Deny it if you can !

I can believe that given the epic amount of hot air generated by some Leavers

Nice one! LOL!

richardDodd

Sandpit Thank you..but no..I actually like cows as animals..

TheScreamingEagles

Talking of hot air, have Vote Leave followed through with their pledge to take ITV to court over Farage's appearance?

Morris_Dancer

Sounds like China may be taking a more hostile approach in the South China Sea:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-36328464

Be interesting to see if this dodgy interception is a one-off, or a new policy.

Casino_Royale

James Forsyth writes a very interesting article in this week's Spectator - rings very true IMHO:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/dont-rule-out-referendum-two-the-tory-leave-genies-out-of-the-bottle/

Plato_Says

Sky saying the model of aircraft has only reported 68 mechanical failures in 28yrs. That's amazing reliability.