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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet
Given the amount of heat that has been generated by the EU referendum, there has been surprisingly little discussion about the actual chances of the main event. It’s time to put that right.
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I guess the big unknown is turnout, will people wake up to the referendum when the TV debates start, and will Labour enthuse their apathetic vote out on the day for an unenthusiastic remain vote in the Tory internal conflict? A sunny day could leave everyone in the beer gardens, and a rainy day keep everyone at home.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/supping-with-the-devil-wont-solve-the-migrant-crisis-tmkrpvpjt
I find that Shy Remainers are at least as common as Shy Leavers, and not just below the line here. Leavers are often very vocal to the point of evangelic zeal that has Remainers backing quietly away and glancing at escape routes.
1/4 does not look value to me when polling is so problematic. I think the value is on Leave.
I think that the Leave campaigns mockery of the consequences of Brexit are helping establish a meme of risk, and also that the focus on immigration and hostility to fellow europeans has repelled the undecided as much as it has reinforced the Leave core vote. Leave have themselves to blame for a poor campaign, though Remain has been no great shakes either.
I do think Leave have a *slightly* better message than Alastair gives them credit for on the money (I think the £350m per week to buy a new hospital is effective politics) justice/human rights (votes for prisoners) and a certain type of voter will find the ability to do global trade deals appealing. In this sense the 5 reasons to Vote Leave leaflet is quite good.
However, the national air war is less good.
The only bit I disagree with is backing Remain at 1/4. If the polls are as unreliable as they seem to be then this doesn't seem to be to be a value bet when you consider the risks of 'events' over the next 5 weeks.
A 75% chance does not equal a 100% chance.
From http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-2.html
Leave have gone big on the NHS and funding it further from saved EU contributions. The Government will have wanted to close down that attack line, plus remove any risk of some incredulous doctors voting Leave just to disrupt and damage HMG.
All old news now though, only one story for the rest of today and it's not looking good for Egyptair 804.
... "Leave have issued wild attacks on the integrity of those voicing inconvenient views."
and yet
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · 31m31 minutes ago
Steve Baker: Remain campaigners – including Downing Street – must stop these nasty personal attacks | Con Home
The situation in Scotland could not be more different. All the main parties, including Ruth's rampant Tories, are for In. Leave have a token presence in the media but there is no sign of any campaigning or canvassing at all. The only document we have had is the booklet from the Government which duly arrived after the elections were out of the way.
I would be very surprised if turnout in Scotland was not very modest. Local elections have more buzz than this. A lot more.
Looks at Betfair turnout market and sees 60-65% at 4 (3/1) and 65-70% at 5 (4/1), maybe more value there than the header's suggestion of the 1/4.
@rafaelbehr: And yet he fails to include 'because we are losing a fight that we picked and it hurts', which is the actual reason. https://t.co/jVgAQ6G6yA
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · May 17
It's fitting that serial liar Cameron should wheel out his pal Heseltine - the Eurofanatic who knifed Margaret Thatcher - to attack Boris.
Simon Richards Retweeted
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnmep · May 17
Wouldn't be a huge surprise if in five years time Cam, Os & Carney were all on mega money with Goldman or other pro-Remain banks, would it?
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · May 11
4 more good reasons to #VoteLeave - Blair, Brown, Cameron and Major: four Prime Ministers who led us into economic disasters & illegal wars.
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · May 5
Only when Japan has compensated the millions of victims of its war crimes should we take its Prime Minister's advice on how to vote.
Potential flaws with telephone polls were again illustrated yesterday in the British Social Attitudes post election review briefing from John Curtice.
The experience of researchers (face to face) is that Labour/left wing voters are much easier to contact in the chase for response. There seems little reason to believe that peculiarity is not being continued now on the telephone.
It was visible yet again in yesterday's Ipsos-Mori, with another Ed Miliband is a Landslide PM sample being found with excesses of 2015 Lab voters, 2015 Lib Dems and public sector workers in the sample.
Obviously, online polls have the well known problem of activist infiltration and this can lead to overstatement of UKIP, but in 2015 the internet was much better at gauging overall right wing opinion/tendency.
The Populus revelation about the vast discrepancy between Landline/Mobile outcomes also makes me very wary of telephone polls. I believe a younger person with a mobile is far easier to contact than an older person or someone on a landline because:
a) A mobile is always carried:
b) Younger people live on them;
c) Older people are more likely to block/ignore contact;
I'm still showing green on turnout between 55% and 65% and have leave on >47.5 which I'm less confident about, though I think it will be close.
There's no good ending to this, it's looking more and more likely to have been a bomb, the questions now move to how and where did the bomb get on the plane. Whatever may have been left of Egypt's tourist industry has just disappeared with this plane.
Mercedes' bosses send warning to Hamilton after collision with Rosberg in Spanish GP
LEWIS HAMILTON has been warned by Mercedes' bosses that he is "too aggressive" after the collision with Nico Rosberg which ended their race at the Spanish Grand Prix was labelled "stupid".
"It is stupid, we could have won this race," said Mercedes' non-executive chairman Niki Lauda. "Lewis is too aggressive. I need to talk to them and hear their explanation."
Daily Express.
Interesting case but the odds are too short to tempt me.
Labour in Scotland are entirely focussed on licking their wounds and the Tories are still in party mode. There will be some Scottish Tories voting leave (like me) but no one wants to be seen publically disagreeing with Ruth at this point.
It does not help leave that UKIP have a minimal presence or organisation here. I will be frankly amazed if Scotland breaks 50% on turnout. It may drag the whole UK figure down a touch.
There's also a good BF under/over market which they've set at 47.5 leave/52.5 remain. Better priced at 1.5 (1/2) over 52.5% for those who don't think it will be close.
April 2016 was the warmest April ever recorded globally according to NOAA continuing the streak of 'warmest ever' months. The April record was beaten by a whopping 0.28C. Worrying times indeed...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201604
If true, that only shows GW, not AGW.
The airline would have been losing money with those load factors, possibly kept alive only by the low oil price and/or govt support.
ELT beacon makes sense, there would have been a lot of people searching very quickly given all the military activity in the southern Med.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36327103
And what's not true about the report?
Not really. El Nino, well documted crap siting of measuring stations next to aircon vents etc and adjustment of data that makes what the opinion pollsters did in the last week or two of the 2015 campaign so the polls converged look like a vicarage tea party. Im with Jeremys brother on this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0O_VYcsIk8
Proof:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFeWpCA9FxhrGq-x-JTPnyxnnDT-pJ8lEZM6_jWd2yA/edit?usp=sharing
But it's coming up a lot in my social circle in London too (work, poker, etc.). I think London turnout is going to be high.
People were rightly furious at the infighting between the Blair and Brown factions while they were in office as it was hugely damaging to the country. However, aside from "insider" briefings, no one really knew what was happening, how many phones were being thrown, who was being bullied.
Thing about the Cons split is that it is being done in public, it is hugely civilised and, even with Hezza-type contributions, each side is pushing the line "respect, don't agree".
I think that this might play better with the public who appreciate differences of opinion if handled properly and with respect (they don't forgive boxers [or MMA fighters..], for example, who don't touch gloves..)
AGW enthusiasts never come up with a solution ..they merely whinge
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/su-gcc
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/su-gcc
Thanks for your words of encouragement to me yesterday, by the way.
Deny it if you can !
I guess Brussels with all the activity there would be a tough one. From my experience Tunis probably not so hard.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-36328464
Be interesting to see if this dodgy interception is a one-off, or a new policy.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/dont-rule-out-referendum-two-the-tory-leave-genies-out-of-the-bottle/