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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A post Brexit vote recession could cost the Tories the next

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  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    TonyE said:

    No it won't, free movement is not on the ballot paper. This is a common argument I hear from Remainers. The referendum is advisory only. The main democratic.process in the UK is the legislative and the elections to it. They have primacy on all issues, except for where treaty obligations negate their decisions via the judicial system.

    Good luck with that :-)

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2016

    Why on Earth should Eurosceptics concede the issue with only a five point swing needed? Especially when that result was only achieved with a huge spend by the taxpayer for Remain?
    You ask a pertinent question. Cameron's use of himself and govt resources feeds the level of resentment that will be there if LEAVE lose. If he had chosen the Harold Wilson approach it would have lowered the resentment. The current approach could be called the "Treaty of Versailles" way of settling the question?
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294

    The Leave argument should be as follows: "Anyone can rig an economic study with certain assumptions to say what they want it to say. But look around the world, and we see countries from Norway to New Zealand, Canada to Switzerland that are much richer than us and aren't part of the EU or any equivalent. Outside the EU we can sign our own trade agreements and make our own regulation to be rich like them."
    Surely a quicker way to enrich ourselves would be to slay all the lefties? Frankly, it's no more preposterous an argument than yours.

  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    Good luck with that :-)

    The question I would ask is "will Labour MPs Vote to.Leave the single market'?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited May 2016
    justin124 said:

    But there would not be a Labour-SNP deal at all. Labour would simply defy the SNP to bring them down. As for the LibDems I don't believe they will lift a finger to help the Tories for another generation. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'.
    In the situation you posit, the Tory leader gets first crack at a Queen's Speech.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    The Leave argument should be as follows: "Anyone can rig an economic study with certain assumptions to say what they want it to say. But look around the world, and we see countries from Norway to New Zealand, Canada to Switzerland that are much richer than us and aren't part of the EU or any equivalent. Outside the EU we can sign our own trade agreements and make our own regulation to be rich like them."
    There's a lovely letter in STimes today from well respected German economists saying they'd love to have Gexit as they're sure the EU house will fall down. I think the recent MORI polling showing how unhappy our EU neighbours are has really floored Remain. Their Urgh-Little-Englander meme has been exploded.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    TonyE said:

    The question I would ask is "will Labour MPs Vote to.Leave the single market'?

    Some will, undoubtedly. But if the Tories - who are the majority party, of course - do not take measures to significantly limit EU immigration then they will be pulverised at the following election. Boris, Gove etc will be in charge and they have put controlling immigration at the heart of the referendum campaign. They have to deliver.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,872
    edited May 2016
    surbiton said:

    There was a sub thread going on about the Potato pickers on small wages but their children using our services ?

    You know their wages are spent in the UK. Any VAT on their purchases are paid to the HMRC. It is not just about direct taxes and NIC.

    The reason they are here is because Brits will not do those jobs. So either we import potatoes and other vegetable and fruits or pay much more for Brits to work [ if they at all do ] at the cost of much higher farm produce price.

    I know because LEAVERs do not like Johnny Foreigner they will say they will buy imported produce.

    Large numbers of immigrants will also (and I don't blame them; it's what I'd do) remit substantial sums from their earnings (and their benefits), to family members and other concerns 'back home'.

    This is money being very directly funnelled out of the UK economy with no further benefit.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    And these are the people who will be negotiating post-Brexit.

    No, they aren't.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The Leave argument should be as follows: "Anyone can rig an economic study with certain assumptions to say what they want it to say. But look around the world, and we see countries from Norway to New Zealand, Canada to Switzerland that are much richer than us and aren't part of the EU or any equivalent. Outside the EU we can sign our own trade agreements and make our own regulation to be rich like them."
    We are richer than NZ by about USD 5000 per capita according to the IMF.

    Per capita GDP in the UK is 25th in the world. 9/24 countries ahead of us are in the EU.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    No, they aren't.

    It is absolutely clear now that if Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are goners. Even if Boris does not win the Tory leadership he will have a very senior cabinet position and so will be at the heart of the negotiations. If he is PM, as Cameron believes will be the case, then he will be leading them.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    We are richer than NZ by about USD 5000 per capita according to the IMF.

    Per capita GDP in the UK is 25th in the world. 9/24 countries ahead of us are in the EU.

    And how many of the fifteen other countries have an economic and fiscal plan predicated on continued membership of the EU and large-scale EU immigration? My guess is that the answer to that one is none.

  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    Some will, undoubtedly. But if the Tories - who are the majority party, of course - do not take measures to significantly limit EU immigration then they will be pulverised at the following election. Boris, Gove etc will be in charge and they have put controlling immigration at the heart of the referendum campaign. They have to deliver.

    They are stuffed both ways, because they thought they would win easily. Blunt truth is that they face 2 choices, recession or keeping FOM. They will choose the latter, and then invoke EEA article 112/113 to limit the impact of that.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Large numbers of immigrants will also (and I don't blame them; it's what I'd do) remit substantial sums from their earnings (and their benefits), to family members and other concerns 'back home'.

    This is money being very directly funnelled out of the UK economy with no further benefit.
    On the other hand if a Lithuanian potato picker has his children back home, the cost of their schooling and healthcare is borne by the Lithuanian economy, while tax and NI are paid here.

    Though in Boston you will see a lot of Polish, Lithuanian and Portuguese school children learning to be good little Britons.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    kle4 said:

    What could have given him that impression? All those Tory supporters saying they are coming for him no matter what?
    According to the all the Cameron loyalists everything will return to normal after the referendum and it will all be forgotten within a couple of days.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,992

    It is absolutely clear now that if Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are goners. Even if Boris does not win the Tory leadership he will have a very senior cabinet position and so will be at the heart of the negotiations. If he is PM, as Cameron believes will be the case, then he will be leading them.

    In the event of Brexit, Cameron will make Boris chief negotiator whatever happens. Dave's mindset will be: you've made this mess Boris, now you make the best of it. I'm sure Dave will do this, if only out of malice. And, of course, Dave wouldn't be human if he wasn't willing Boris to fail.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,872

    In the event of Brexit, Cameron will make Boris chief negotiator whatever happens. Dave's mindset will be: you've made this mess Boris, now you make the best of it. I'm sure Dave will do this, if only out of malice. And, of course, Dave wouldn't be human if he wasn't willing Boris to fail.
    I can't believe these posts. If this is the sort of PM even Cameron's cheerleaders think he is, we're well shot.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,155
    justin124 said:

    But there would not be a Labour-SNP deal at all. Labour would simply defy the SNP to bring them down. As for the LibDems I don't believe they will lift a finger to help the Tories for another generation. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'.
    As Three Quidder states as largest party the Tories would be invited to form a government first, the LDs would likely abstain and Tories plus DUP plus UUP plus UKIP will outvote Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Greens
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    TonyE said:

    They are stuffed both ways, because they thought they would win easily. Blunt truth is that they face 2 choices, recession or keeping FOM. They will choose the latter, and then invoke EEA article 112/113 to limit the impact of that.

    I agree that FOM and continued unfettered access to the Single Market would be best for the country, but if Boris, Gove etc do not deliver the promised curbs on immigration they are buggered and will probably have completely screwed the Tories for a generation. That may not be a bad thing, of course :-)

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    In the situation you posit, the Tory leader gets first crack at a Queen's Speech.
    Indeed so - but it would be likely to face defeat.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    In the event of Brexit, Cameron will make Boris chief negotiator whatever happens. Dave's mindset will be: you've made this mess Boris, now you make the best of it. I'm sure Dave will do this, if only out of malice. And, of course, Dave wouldn't be human if he wasn't willing Boris to fail.

    What could possibly go wrong with putting a notoriously lazy, untrustworthy politician with no eye for detail in charge of negotiating a deal with people he had previously likened to Nazis?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Nope they are not banned from using the NHS or any other public service. The issue is whether they use them. Some will, as is the case with the Boston example you cite, many others won't. That's why you have to look at the overall picture. And that indicates that the average EU immigrant - young, fit, single and mobile - pays in more than he/she takes out.

    So why are we running of primary school places in London?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,872

    On the other hand if a Lithuanian potato picker has his children back home, the cost of their schooling and healthcare is borne by the Lithuanian economy, while tax and NI are paid here.
    I don't think that really is another hand.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    MP_SE said:

    According to the all the Cameron loyalists everything will return to normal after the referendum and it will all be forgotten within a couple of days.

    The Tories are in a very bad place. Luckily for them, Corbyn is in charge of Labour. But the prospects for ordinary punters are not good whatever the result next month. We have a useless government and an opposition lacking any credibility.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294

    What could possibly go wrong with putting a notoriously lazy, untrustworthy politician with no eye for detail in charge of negotiating a deal with people he had previously likened to Nazis?

    :):):)

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    And how many of the fifteen other countries have an economic and fiscal plan predicated on continued membership of the EU and large-scale EU immigration? My guess is that the answer to that one is none.

    Switzerland and Norway are in that 19 and have FOM, I am not sure about San Marino, but expect so too. The oil states of the Gulf are heavily dependent on immigrant workers, the USA, Canada and Australia all have per capita inward migration 2-3 times ours, Singapore too I think. The only countries above us in the rankings without significant inward migration are Saudi, Taiwan and Oman.

  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    "On the other hand if a Lithuanian potato picker has his children back home, the cost of their schooling and healthcare is borne by the Lithuanian economy" - I hear 6 weeks here and child benefit wll be sent to you in your own ciountry until you are 18. Though I don't suppose anybody actually checks the entitlement.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    No surprise here - German priest claims almost 100% of Muslim converts he baptises have their asylum applications granted - a new industry has been created... http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/germanys-muslim-refugees-flock-to-become-christians-fkcpctlfd
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,036

    In the event of Brexit, Cameron will make Boris chief negotiator whatever happens. Dave's mindset will be: you've made this mess Boris, now you make the best of it. I'm sure Dave will do this, if only out of malice. And, of course, Dave wouldn't be human if he wasn't willing Boris to fail.
    Precisely, if we exit the EU on a wave of anti-immigration feeling it is only right that the victors get to sort it out from there on in. Remainsers should steer well clear of the negotiations so they can't get blamed for the consequences.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    PAW said:

    "On the other hand if a Lithuanian potato picker has his children back home, the cost of their schooling and healthcare is borne by the Lithuanian economy" - I hear 6 weeks here and child benefit wll be sent to you in your own ciountry until you are 18. Though I don't suppose anybody actually checks the entitlement.

    You don't even have to have kids! Who checks?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Switzerland and Norway are in that 19 and have FOM, I am not sure about San Marino, but expect so too. The oil states of the Gulf are heavily dependent on immigrant workers, the USA, Canada and Australia all have per capita inward migration 2-3 times ours, Singapore too I think. The only countries above us in the rankings without significant inward migration are Saudi, Taiwan and Oman.

    I stand corrected. Cheers :-)

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,873
    OllyT said:

    I accept that is what may happen but it's wrong. If Leave win it will almost certainly be on a tide of anti-immigration feeling. That must then be honoured and Leave must then be free to plough its own furough and opt for stopping immigration and losing the single market in the process. If Leave don't get what they want then we will have 20 more years of the Mail, Express, UKIP etc espousing stab-in-the-back theories.
    Which is why I fear for our country if the result is anything other than a convincing Remain win. Anything else will poison our politics for decades to come.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    Charles said:

    So why are we running of primary school places in London?

    Because the government failed totally to plan.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PAW said:

    "On the other hand if a Lithuanian potato picker has his children back home, the cost of their schooling and healthcare is borne by the Lithuanian economy" - I hear 6 weeks here and child benefit wll be sent to you in your own ciountry until you are 18. Though I don't suppose anybody actually checks the entitlement.

    Child benefit is paid to 34 000 children living elsewhere in the EU at present:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2898582/Britain-paying-child-benefit-34-000-children-EU-parties-agree-mad-deal-ending-handouts-years-off.html

    Of course this doesn't come close to covering the costs of upkeep, education and healthcare. Indeed the UK taxpayer gets the better end of the deal!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2016
    surbiton said:



    Who pays for the healthcare costs of 200k Brits living in Costa del Sol etc. ? And, they are mostly pensioners.

    We do:

    Spain has both public and private healthcare systems. The public system provides free basic healthcare to those who contribute to the Spanish social security system and their families. The public system also provides free healthcare for retirees, including those from other EU countries. The UK government pays Spain an annual sum per pensioner to cover their health costs.

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2008/apr/08/expat-finance-spain

    From 2008, but I doubt it has changed. My bold
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    edited May 2016
    Does the Lithuanian get child tax credits for children at home?
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    I agree that FOM and continued unfettered access to the Single Market would be best for the country, but if Boris, Gove etc do not deliver the promised curbs on immigration they are buggered and will probably have completely screwed the Tories for a generation. That may not be a bad thing, of course :-)

    The Tory party, like UKIP, has served a purpose which may no longer be needed. I'm hoping that in a generation we will have seen the back of them both in exchange for a new and truly " Liberal" party - internationalist, economically liberal, socially liberal but smaller state and very less ideologically restricted.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,703

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,155
    justin124 said:

    Indeed so - but it would be likely to face defeat.
    No as I outlined it would win with the LDs abstaining
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,155
    kle4 said:

    What could have given him that impression? All those Tory supporters saying they are coming for him no matter what?
    Pretty much
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,155

    That will help team spirit in the Mercedes camp. *innocent face*
    Yes they already are hardly bosom buddies
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,155

    Why on Earth should Eurosceptics concede the issue with only a five point swing needed? Especially when that result was only achieved with a huge spend by the taxpayer for Remain?
    Yes it would be the same as post indy ref
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,155

    Polling on the AV referendum (peace be upon it) moved the other way. 2 months out polling was neck and neck, but a decisive victory for the status quo on the day.

    Different elections have different dynamics. Brexit is not a re-run of the Sindyref, so parallels are very limited.
    A/V was an obscure voting system, EU ref like indyref is about nationalism
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Which is why I fear for our country if the result is anything other than a convincing Remain win. Anything else will poison our politics for decades to come.
    If the argument is that a Leave vote would require the government to seek a deal without freedom of movement on the basis of how the campaign was conducted, then similarly a Remain vote would preclude the government acquiescing to the continuing process of federalisation. Which will go down very badly in Brussels and Berlin.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    surbiton said:

    Berlusconi's friend ?
    No, not the one who was married to a Labour cabinet minister until he wasn't (that's his brother David).

    John founded JML - which sells tat on channels you (probably) don't watch - and has donated squillions to Labour (£1.65m in 2013, for instance)
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,992
    Odd. When Red Ken cited the supposed endorsement of Hitler to discredit a concept he didn't like, there was a near unanimity of condemnation from the PB Leave community. Boris employs an identical tactic and not a peep. Why not?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,898
    Verstappen wins the Spanish GP!

    Tipped here by Morris Dancer at 250/1! Lifetime PB Tipster award.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,539

    Large numbers of immigrants will also (and I don't blame them; it's what I'd do) remit substantial sums from their earnings (and their benefits), to family members and other concerns 'back home'.

    This is money being very directly funnelled out of the UK economy with no further benefit.
    And this is one of the reasons why the UK's current account deficit is at an all time high.

  • stjohn said:

    Verstappen wins the Spanish GP!

    Tipped here by Morris Dancer at 250/1! Lifetime PB Tipster award.

    Seconded, Congrats to Morris Dancer, wish I'd followed it.
This discussion has been closed.