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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A post Brexit vote recession could cost the Tories the next
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A post Brexit vote recession could cost the Tories the next election
On one side we have, inter alia, the Prime Minister, the Chancellor, and the great and the good, from the IMF, the OECD, NIESR, The Bank of England, and their Governor, Mark Carney, who the polls suggest is political Kryptonite against Leave, forecasting Brexit as being somewhere from very bad to a visit from the Four Horsemen for the UK economy.
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And the problem was not Wednesday but the pain for Tory supporters in the years leading up to it -- businesses and homes lost to high interest rates, sacrificed unnecessarily as it turned out.
There's only one way we'll ever know.
Did Nicholas Ridley get sacked in vain?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Ridley,_Baron_Ridley_of_Liddesdale#Secretary_of_State_for_Trade_and_Industry
On 14 July 1990 he was forced to resign as Secretary of State for Trade and Industry after an interview published in The Spectator. He had described the proposed Economic and Monetary Union as "a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe" and said that giving up sovereignty to the European Union was as bad as giving it up to Adolf Hitler.
For Ken : Hitler = he was misunderstood when it came to the Jews....
But thanks for bringing it up again.
BBC - Ukraine has won this year's Eurovision Song Contest with its song 1944, about the deportation of Crimean Tatars under Josef Stalin.
Sounds jolly - bring back Katrina and the Waves…
The eminent journalist Peter Hitchens in his MoS column today stated that:
" The Prime Minister’s daft claim that a British exit from the EU could lead to war is not just panic-mongering, but wrong.
The real fault-line in Europe lies between Germany and Russia. It’s amazing how many call the EU ‘Europe’ when it excludes Russia, the biggest country in Europe. In fact, the EU is the continuation of Germany by other means, swelling and spreading eastwards, abolishing frontiers and gobbling up territory as it has so many times before.
Russia, meanwhile, has begun to make it plain – by increasingly spectacular celebrations of its 1945 triumph over Hitler, including a Victory Day parade in Red Square last week – that it will not take much more of this.
After decades of putting up with Western expansionism, and the scandalous transformation of NATO from a defensive alliance into an aggressive one, Moscow’s had enough. If there is a new war in Europe, the EU will be the cause of it, and all its members will be dragged into it.
Contrary to what Mr Cameron said, Britain was far safer when it stayed aloof from these continental quarrels. All our present misfortunes began when we foolishly took sides in the great Russo-German war of 1914."
Europe's choice of winner in the Eurovision song contest is in line with this sentiment.
Dave has burnt his bridges behind him.
He's stuffed.
UK net annual contribution to EU = £7.1 billion
UK annual government expenditure = £772 billion
A very handy 13% reduction.
A billion here, a billion there - pretty soon, you're talking real money.
http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/14493667.Salmond_reveals_plan_to_put_Tony_Blair_in_the_dock_over_Iraq_War/
“arguably the most authoritarian piece of legislation in modern times in Britain. That you can go to prison for five years for being offensive at a football match is insane.”
http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/14493682.Opposition_parties_unite_to_repeal_SNP__39_s_anti_sectarianism_law/
Hitchens is almost as profoundly ignorant/disingenuous/incompetent (delete as appropriate) as his brother - and very fortunately there are very few you can say that about.
This government's economic and fiscal plans - until recently very widely supported on here - are predicated on EU membership and high levels of immigration.
Dave's getting exciting !
The economy to be fair to remain is the trump card. But will people still believe Dave after his bonkers war crap ?
In normal circumstances a split right would be great news for Labour, of course. But we all know that with the party's current leadership team that isn't going to be the case.
The Eurovision result.
From the BBC website, "The new scoring system highlighted the disparity between the preferences of the juries and the public .It allowed Poland, which was in penultimate place with seven points from the jury, to leap to eighth when the public's 227 points were taken into account.
It also meant the UK, which had been placed 17th after the jury vote with 54 points, was pushed down to 24th out of 26 when the public's mere eight points were added."
So why ask the so-called "experts" on the jury to judge the songs? Take the 2014 title off that Austrian bloke in a skirt and give it back to those who deserved it - the Polish milkmaids.
It's the Establishment in a nutshell. They know better even when they clearly don't.
Mr Eagles, it's why Leave may still sneak a win against the odds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0pwXLtvt2w&feature=youtu.be
What's not to like.
The Treasury figures note payments the EU makes directly to the private sector, such as research grants. In 2013, these were worth an estimated £1.4 billion, so including them could reduce our net contribution further still.
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
All these economic forecasts coming out (some even from HM Treasury) show that Cameron is a bare-faced liar but, more interestingly, is introducing immigration into the debate in a non-toxic way.
Vote Remain for higher housing costs, lower wages and more terrorism so that landlords, businessmen and politicians can benefit is hardly an attractive proposition.
Financially this country is completely f****** whether we stay in the EU or not. At some point our government will have to make some very tough decisions. While I'm happy to see those decisions taken outside the EU - and take any collateral criticism from the told you so brigade - should we vote to stay in, one silver lining will be watching Cameron and Osborne deal with the faltering economy.
Leaving and carping from the sidelines will do nothing to aid UK interests, and ultimately politicians will come to remember that being in the EEC/EU was never about idealism, but cold, hard realpolitik.
In TSE's scenario, the Tories might well dodge the blame, because it would be the voters themselves who had chosen Brexit, rather than the Tories' cherished economic policy blowing up in their faces, as per the ERM.
The failure of economics profession to entertain even the possibility of the Great Crash, let alone predict it, renders everything they say moot.
HM Queen spotted how are useless they were and so will everyone else.
The most notable feature of last night's mega bore show, probably the worst ever Eurovision which is certainly saying something, was the fact that somehow or other the French had been persuaded to declare their winner in English, well at least predominantly so.
In other news - I see that Remain are panicking in a most unseemly fashion all over the pages of the Sunday Times. They're claiming to be 10pts ahead in their secret polls, yet are having a nervous breakdown in the quotes.
Given we nitpick turnout/sampling to death here - their claim seems very unlikely. Labour voters are regularly oversampled, along with public sector workers - they're keener on Remain. It's the oldies that prove more difficult to find and they're breaking heavily for Leave.
Still, whatever's true - it's all very entertaining.
How something that's broadly equivalent to 1% of government expenditure can be described as "vast" may be a touch hyperbolic....
Check out where Austria got its votes from:
http://tinyurl.com/hvavl4h
The 10 from Switzerland can, in part, probably be put down to cross border voting, but the rest look like middling points based on people actually liking the song.
At the risk of sounding like I'm auditioning for the role of Captain Alzheimer's, I can't remember who tipped Ukraine at about 4-5, or even if I backed it, but cheers to that chap.
Well quite.
You seem to have glossed over how we did it in most cases: It sure wasn't by allying with the dominant power.
Who do think actually did the heavy lifting in sorting out Nap and AH? Clue: it wasn't us
And when the main danger was over we repositioned with a new alliance.
Sticking with the EU as it achieves continental domination is the anti thesis of that centuries old British policy you mentioned.
British interest *requires* LEAVE.
Maybe nobody wants to tell the Prime Minister bad news. Maybe he has found himself a bag of Nokias in the Downing Street basement...
The way to square the circle is "points-based immigration system", increasing the quality of immigrants and reducing their quantity. This is impossible while we remain in the EU.
Mmmmmm.....
If this had been anyone but the left wing then they would be accused of "talking Britain down" (the claim of the entire government front bench when they received warnings their polices would cause as it did the Great Labour recession of 2008/2009.
Perhaps he can borrow EdM's other kitchen sink to throw at his campaign.
Titter ....
"On the other side, I suspect the juries are naturally put off by any song featuring a pretty girl."
I prefer to think of Eurovision as an allegory of the Establishment view. We can't allow the plebs to have a direct vote, because they don't understand the finer points like wot we do. We'll put in a jury of reliable chaps and chapesses to pass it on for them.
It's always a nasty shock when the ugly facts (for them) come out. Why it's nearly as bad as Sun readers looking at topless women - how bizarre ... when they could virtue-signal instead like we do.
What next? They'll be voting for Leave despite us pointing out the real facts. It's as if they think we're not superior.
Angela Merkel believes David Cameron’s referendum on membership of the European Union is a “completely unnecessary risk” http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/merkel-brands-referendum-a-needless-risk-6cpbrjc3z
That was full of wheezes that have fallen apart pretty quickly.
It was another "game-changer" for Remain that's has turned out to be a damp squib.
Stop blaming your own mistakes on other people.
It's all about political positioning at the end of the day.
I hadn't heard the British song before but I was disappointed. They sounded nervous and the song was instantly forgettable, but what do I know?
I think Jackson Pollock was a waste of paint, and Picasso could draw a bit before he forget how many ears a face has. I went to the Liverpool Tate and recognised the contents of my garage when it needs a good tidy.
In fact, haven't we had the first two already?
And, according to Labour, the third.
There were big discrepancies between the tele vote and juries, but not just for UK and Poland. Israel and Malta got stuffed by the televote too.
So off to Kyiv for next year, and a half time show full of Ukranian folkdancing. Marvellous!
Stop importing sub-minimum wage earners.
Start importing high value achievers and their capital.
Get (gdp per capita) rich.
"Well it was exclusively a jury vote until 1997."
I'd forgotten about that, and I remember "Sing little Birdie." I suspect phone-polling was sci-fi then.
Still, they were hardly great art at the best of times.
Miss Plato, I have a vague recollection of there being 5-6 sites, the favourite(s) being in Scotland.
However, the southwest is also a possibility (and has the advantage of building a massive infrastructure project somewhere that won't vote to leave the UK in the foreseeable future).
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/15/nigel-farage-remain-leave-eu-referendum-tories
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
The opposition parties should gang up to force through more trams in Edinburgh next.