Mark Carney again on Marr this morning in complete control of his absolute independence and was a masterclass in integrity. Along comes Boris with the 'Hitler' word which has been the main story on the broadcast media all morning with pretty universal criticism. Put both of these news reports together and the narrative around them and it must be almost impossible for leave to win on economics. Also putting Farage on against David Cameron, with David Cameron following, must be considered a gift to remain as Farage will 'go way over the top on immigration' and has said this morning that GDP is not important. On another subject the Mail on Sunday seemed to be much more balanced today, notwithstanding it's front page, and absolutely nothing like the Daily Mail with it's universal pro leave anti remain narrative across the whole paper and by the individual journalists reports. Does seem strange
Leave has been poor on economics, because they have ignored the reality that is based on the parliamentary arithmetic. The ballot paper only states Leave/remain in the EU. What will parliament do. My guess is that they will do minimum necessary to fulfill the terms on the ballot paper, leave via EEA/EFTA. This negates economic risk, removes the Tory fear of economic shock and reinforces the Eurozone by not disrupting trade.
Yes and that includes free movement of labour so if leave win but free movement of labour continues it will be a travesty of democracy and question the validility of the referendum
No it won't, free movement is not on the ballot paper. This is a common argument I hear from Remainers. The referendum is advisory only. The main democratic.process in the UK is the legislative and the elections to it. They have primacy on all issues, except for where treaty obligations negate their decisions via the judicial system.
The Times reports Cameron believes his leadership is under threat even if Remain wins if it wins by less than 53% to 47%. If Remain wins by more than 10% he will force Eurosceptics to agree the UK stays in the EU for a generation. He also thinks Boris is unstoppable before 2019
Why on Earth should Eurosceptics concede the issue with only a five point swing needed? Especially when that result was only achieved with a huge spend by the taxpayer for Remain?
You ask a pertinent question. Cameron's use of himself and govt resources feeds the level of resentment that will be there if LEAVE lose. If he had chosen the Harold Wilson approach it would have lowered the resentment. The current approach could be called the "Treaty of Versailles" way of settling the question?
I think Leave are very wrong (particularly Leave.EU and Nigel) to surrender the economic ground to the Remain blob. They should, as I've always said, attack the economic drawbacks and risks of staying in, of which there are many. Undermining the credibility of the doom mongers is right, but this 'sovereignty' malarkey, whilst absolutely right, is voter poison imo. Rather a shame, and will be to Leave's detriment I think, but maybe not show in the polling.
Leave are only 4pts behind on the economy - they aren't ceding any ground to my eyes.
The Leave argument should be as follows: "Anyone can rig an economic study with certain assumptions to say what they want it to say. But look around the world, and we see countries from Norway to New Zealand, Canada to Switzerland that are much richer than us and aren't part of the EU or any equivalent. Outside the EU we can sign our own trade agreements and make our own regulation to be rich like them."
Surely a quicker way to enrich ourselves would be to slay all the lefties? Frankly, it's no more preposterous an argument than yours.
Mark Carney again on Marr this morning in complete control of his absolute independence and was a masterclass in integrity. Along comes Boris with the 'Hitler' word which has been the main story on the broadcast media all morning with pretty universal criticism. Put both of these news reports together and the narrative around them and it must be almost impossible for leave to win on economics. Also putting Farage on against David Cameron, with David Cameron following, must be considered a gift to remain as Farage will 'go way over the top on immigration' and has said this morning that GDP is not important. On another subject the Mail on Sunday seemed to be much more balanced today, notwithstanding it's front page, and absolutely nothing like the Daily Mail with it's universal pro leave anti remain narrative across the whole paper and by the individual journalists reports. Does seem strange
Leave has been poor on economics, because they have ignored the reality that is based on the parliamentary arithmetic. The ballot paper only states Leave/remain in the EU. What will parliament do. My guess is that they will do minimum necessary to fulfill the terms on the ballot paper, leave via EEA/EFTA. This negates economic risk, removes the Tory fear of economic shock and reinforces the Eurozone by not disrupting trade.
Yes and that includes free movement of labour so if leave win but free movement of labour continues it will be a travesty of democracy and question the validility of the referendum
No it won't, free movement is not on the ballot paper. This is a common argument I hear from Remainers. The referendum is advisory only. The main democratic.process in the UK is the legislative and the elections to it. They have primacy on all issues, except for where treaty obligations negate their decisions via the judicial system.
Good luck with that :-)
The question I would ask is "will Labour MPs Vote to.Leave the single market'?
When will Lefties on PB realise that Labour has absolutely no chance whatsoever of winning in 2020 as long as Corbyn and his current front bench are in place...the Brits might be auld sentimental softies but they are not bloody fools
When will you realise that almost no Leftie that posts on here believes that Corbyn will win in 2020? Not even those that support his leadership think that.
Depends what you mean by 'win'. Gaining sufficient seats to prevent the Tories being able to form a Minority Government is very possible.
"It is perfectly obvious to everyone that it cannot win a general election with Corbyn at the helm. It cannot."
That does not contradict my point at all. Getting to 323 is very unlikely under Corbyn - but reaching 250 - 260 is very possible with the Tories below 310. That would not be a 'win' but it might be enough to turf the Tories out!
No it would not, Labour will not form a government if 50 seats behind the Tories, the Tories would have the backing of UKIP and the unionists and while the LDs would not do another Coalition they would not back an SNP Labour deal either (neither would many Labour MPs)
But there would not be a Labour-SNP deal at all. Labour would simply defy the SNP to bring them down. As for the LibDems I don't believe they will lift a finger to help the Tories for another generation. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'.
In the situation you posit, the Tory leader gets first crack at a Queen's Speech.
I think Leave are very wrong (particularly Leave.EU and Nigel) to surrender the economic ground to the Remain blob. They should, as I've always said, attack the economic drawbacks and risks of staying in, of which there are many. Undermining the credibility of the doom mongers is right, but this 'sovereignty' malarkey, whilst absolutely right, is voter poison imo. Rather a shame, and will be to Leave's detriment I think, but maybe not show in the polling.
Leave are only 4pts behind on the economy - they aren't ceding any ground to my eyes.
The Leave argument should be as follows: "Anyone can rig an economic study with certain assumptions to say what they want it to say. But look around the world, and we see countries from Norway to New Zealand, Canada to Switzerland that are much richer than us and aren't part of the EU or any equivalent. Outside the EU we can sign our own trade agreements and make our own regulation to be rich like them."
There's a lovely letter in STimes today from well respected German economists saying they'd love to have Gexit as they're sure the EU house will fall down. I think the recent MORI polling showing how unhappy our EU neighbours are has really floored Remain. Their Urgh-Little-Englander meme has been exploded.
Mark Carney again on Marr this morning in complete control of his absolute independence and was a masterclass in integrity. Along comes Boris with the 'Hitler' word which has been the main story on the broadcast media all morning with pretty universal criticism. Put both of these news reports together and the narrative around them and it must be almost impossible for leave to win on economics. Also putting Farage on against David Cameron, with David Cameron following, must be considered a gift to remain as Farage will 'go way over the top on immigration' and has said this morning that GDP is not important. On another subject the Mail on Sunday seemed to be much more balanced today, notwithstanding it's front page, and absolutely nothing like the Daily Mail with it's universal pro leave anti remain narrative across the whole paper and by the individual journalists reports. Does seem strange
Leave has been poor on economics, because they have ignored the reality that is based on the parliamentary arithmetic. The ballot paper only states Leave/remain in the EU. What will parliament do. My guess is that they will do minimum necessary to fulfill the terms on the ballot paper, leave via EEA/EFTA. This negates economic risk, removes the Tory fear of economic shock and reinforces the Eurozone by not disrupting trade.
Yes and that includes free movement of labour so if leave win but free movement of labour continues it will be a travesty of democracy and question the validility of the referendum
No it won't, free movement is not on the ballot paper. This is a common argument I hear from Remainers. The referendum is advisory only. The main democratic.process in the UK is the legislative and the elections to it. They have primacy on all issues, except for where treaty obligations negate their decisions via the judicial system.
Good luck with that :-)
The question I would ask is "will Labour MPs Vote to.Leave the single market'?
Some will, undoubtedly. But if the Tories - who are the majority party, of course - do not take measures to significantly limit EU immigration then they will be pulverised at the following election. Boris, Gove etc will be in charge and they have put controlling immigration at the heart of the referendum campaign. They have to deliver.
There was a sub thread going on about the Potato pickers on small wages but their children using our services ?
You know their wages are spent in the UK. Any VAT on their purchases are paid to the HMRC. It is not just about direct taxes and NIC.
The reason they are here is because Brits will not do those jobs. So either we import potatoes and other vegetable and fruits or pay much more for Brits to work [ if they at all do ] at the cost of much higher farm produce price.
I know because LEAVERs do not like Johnny Foreigner they will say they will buy imported produce.
Large numbers of immigrants will also (and I don't blame them; it's what I'd do) remit substantial sums from their earnings (and their benefits), to family members and other concerns 'back home'.
This is money being very directly funnelled out of the UK economy with no further benefit.
The Leave leadership's 'EU membership = Supporting the Nazis' assertion appears to be headlining on every major news outlet. It's very shrill but also quite dark. It also marks a radical shift in Leave's tactics. Hitherto the EU was portrayed as a kind of benign mishap - an inefficient bureaucracy with its heart in the right place but prone to bungling; we'd had enough of it but wished it no ill. (This was very much how Farage used to frame things.) Now Leave are portraying the EU as the very embodiment of evil. The eurosceptic Tories who now control Leave are showing a troubling degree of tone-deafness. Perhaps Farage can step in and calm things down.
And these are the people who will be negotiating post-Brexit.
I think Leave are very wrong (particularly Leave.EU and Nigel) to surrender the economic ground to the Remain blob. They should, as I've always said, attack the economic drawbacks and risks of staying in, of which there are many. Undermining the credibility of the doom mongers is right, but this 'sovereignty' malarkey, whilst absolutely right, is voter poison imo. Rather a shame, and will be to Leave's detriment I think, but maybe not show in the polling.
Leave are only 4pts behind on the economy - they aren't ceding any ground to my eyes.
The Leave argument should be as follows: "Anyone can rig an economic study with certain assumptions to say what they want it to say. But look around the world, and we see countries from Norway to New Zealand, Canada to Switzerland that are much richer than us and aren't part of the EU or any equivalent. Outside the EU we can sign our own trade agreements and make our own regulation to be rich like them."
We are richer than NZ by about USD 5000 per capita according to the IMF.
Per capita GDP in the UK is 25th in the world. 9/24 countries ahead of us are in the EU.
The Leave leadership's 'EU membership = Supporting the Nazis' assertion appears to be headlining on every major news outlet. It's very shrill but also quite dark. It also marks a radical shift in Leave's tactics. Hitherto the EU was portrayed as a kind of benign mishap - an inefficient bureaucracy with its heart in the right place but prone to bungling; we'd had enough of it but wished it no ill. (This was very much how Farage used to frame things.) Now Leave are portraying the EU as the very embodiment of evil. The eurosceptic Tories who now control Leave are showing a troubling degree of tone-deafness. Perhaps Farage can step in and calm things down.
And these are the people who will be negotiating post-Brexit.
No, they aren't.
It is absolutely clear now that if Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are goners. Even if Boris does not win the Tory leadership he will have a very senior cabinet position and so will be at the heart of the negotiations. If he is PM, as Cameron believes will be the case, then he will be leading them.
I think Leave are very wrong (particularly Leave.EU and Nigel) to surrender the economic ground to the Remain blob. They should, as I've always said, attack the economic drawbacks and risks of staying in, of which there are many. Undermining the credibility of the doom mongers is right, but this 'sovereignty' malarkey, whilst absolutely right, is voter poison imo. Rather a shame, and will be to Leave's detriment I think, but maybe not show in the polling.
Leave are only 4pts behind on the economy - they aren't ceding any ground to my eyes.
The Leave argument should be as follows: "Anyone can rig an economic study with certain assumptions to say what they want it to say. But look around the world, and we see countries from Norway to New Zealand, Canada to Switzerland that are much richer than us and aren't part of the EU or any equivalent. Outside the EU we can sign our own trade agreements and make our own regulation to be rich like them."
We are richer than NZ by about USD 5000 per capita according to the IMF.
Per capita GDP in the UK is 25th in the world. 9/24 countries ahead of us are in the EU.
And how many of the fifteen other countries have an economic and fiscal plan predicated on continued membership of the EU and large-scale EU immigration? My guess is that the answer to that one is none.
Mark Carney again on Marr this morning in complete control of his absolute independence and was a masterclass in integrity. Along comes Boris with the 'Hitler' word which has been the main story on the broadcast media all morning with pretty universal criticism. Put both of these news reports together and the narrative around them and it must be almost impossible for leave to win on economics. Also putting Farage on against David Cameron, with David Cameron following, must be considered a gift to remain as Farage will 'go way over the top on immigration' and has said this morning that GDP is not important. On another subject the Mail on Sunday seemed to be much more balanced today, notwithstanding it's front page, and absolutely nothing like the Daily Mail with it's universal pro leave anti remain narrative across the whole paper and by the individual journalists reports. Does seem strange
Leave has been poor on economics, because they have ignored the reality that is based on the parliamentary arithmetic. The ballot paper only states Leave/remain in the EU. What will parliament do. My guess is that they will do minimum necessary to fulfill the terms on the ballot paper, leave via EEA/EFTA. This negates economic risk, removes the Tory fear of economic shock and reinforces the Eurozone by not disrupting trade.
Yes and that includes free movement of labour so if leave win but free movement of labour continues it will be a travesty of democracy and question the validility of the referendum
No it won't, free movement is not on the ballot paper. This is a common argument I hear from Remainers. The referendum is advisory only. The main democratic.process in the UK is the legislative and the elections to it. They have primacy on all issues, except for where treaty obligations negate their decisions via the judicial system.
Good luck with that :-)
The question I would ask is "will Labour MPs Vote to.Leave the single market'?
Some will, undoubtedly. But if the Tories - who are the majority party, of course - do not take measures to significantly limit EU immigration then they will be pulverised at the following election. Boris, Gove etc will be in charge and they have put controlling immigration at the heart of the referendum campaign. They have to deliver.
They are stuffed both ways, because they thought they would win easily. Blunt truth is that they face 2 choices, recession or keeping FOM. They will choose the latter, and then invoke EEA article 112/113 to limit the impact of that.
There was a sub thread going on about the Potato pickers on small wages but their children using our services ?
You know their wages are spent in the UK. Any VAT on their purchases are paid to the HMRC. It is not just about direct taxes and NIC.
The reason they are here is because Brits will not do those jobs. So either we import potatoes and other vegetable and fruits or pay much more for Brits to work [ if they at all do ] at the cost of much higher farm produce price.
I know because LEAVERs do not like Johnny Foreigner they will say they will buy imported produce.
Large numbers of immigrants will also (and I don't blame them; it's what I'd do) remit substantial sums from their earnings (and their benefits), to family members and other concerns 'back home'.
This is money being very directly funnelled out of the UK economy with no further benefit.
On the other hand if a Lithuanian potato picker has his children back home, the cost of their schooling and healthcare is borne by the Lithuanian economy, while tax and NI are paid here.
Though in Boston you will see a lot of Polish, Lithuanian and Portuguese school children learning to be good little Britons.
The Leave leadership's 'EU membership = Supporting the Nazis' assertion appears to be headlining on every major news outlet. It's very shrill but also quite dark. It also marks a radical shift in Leave's tactics. Hitherto the EU was portrayed as a kind of benign mishap - an inefficient bureaucracy with its heart in the right place but prone to bungling; we'd had enough of it but wished it no ill. (This was very much how Farage used to frame things.) Now Leave are portraying the EU as the very embodiment of evil. The eurosceptic Tories who now control Leave are showing a troubling degree of tone-deafness. Perhaps Farage can step in and calm things down.
And these are the people who will be negotiating post-Brexit.
No, they aren't.
It is absolutely clear now that if Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are goners. Even if Boris does not win the Tory leadership he will have a very senior cabinet position and so will be at the heart of the negotiations. If he is PM, as Cameron believes will be the case, then he will be leading them.
In the event of Brexit, Cameron will make Boris chief negotiator whatever happens. Dave's mindset will be: you've made this mess Boris, now you make the best of it. I'm sure Dave will do this, if only out of malice. And, of course, Dave wouldn't be human if he wasn't willing Boris to fail.
The Leave leadership's 'EU membership = Supporting the Nazis' assertion appears to be headlining on every major news outlet. It's very shrill but also quite dark. It also marks a radical shift in Leave's tactics. Hitherto the EU was portrayed as a kind of benign mishap - an inefficient bureaucracy with its heart in the right place but prone to bungling; we'd had enough of it but wished it no ill. (This was very much how Farage used to frame things.) Now Leave are portraying the EU as the very embodiment of evil. The eurosceptic Tories who now control Leave are showing a troubling degree of tone-deafness. Perhaps Farage can step in and calm things down.
And these are the people who will be negotiating post-Brexit.
No, they aren't.
It is absolutely clear now that if Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are goners. Even if Boris does not win the Tory leadership he will have a very senior cabinet position and so will be at the heart of the negotiations. If he is PM, as Cameron believes will be the case, then he will be leading them.
In the event of Brexit, Cameron will make Boris chief negotiator whatever happens. Dave's mindset will be: you've made this mess Boris, now you make the best of it. I'm sure Dave will do this, if only out of malice. And, of course, Dave wouldn't be human if he wasn't willing Boris to fail.
I can't believe these posts. If this is the sort of PM even Cameron's cheerleaders think he is, we're well shot.
When will Lefties on PB realise that Labour has absolutely no chance whatsoever of winning in 2020 as long as Corbyn and his current front bench are in place...the Brits might be auld sentimental softies but they are not bloody fools
When will you realise that almost no Leftie that posts on here believes that Corbyn will win in 2020? Not even those that support his leadership think that.
Depends what you mean by 'win'. Gaining sufficient seats to prevent the Tories being able to form a Minority Government is very possible.
"It is perfectly obvious to everyone that it cannot win a general election with Corbyn at the helm. It cannot."
That does not contradict my point at all. Getting to 323 is very unlikely under Corbyn - but reaching 250 - 260 is very possible with the Tories below 310. That would not be a 'win' but it might be enough to turf the Tories out!
No it would not, Labour will not form a government if 50 seats behind the Tories, the Tories would have the backing of UKIP and the unionists and while the LDs would not do another Coalition they would not back an SNP Labour deal either (neither would many Labour MPs)
But there would not be a Labour-SNP deal at all. Labour would simply defy the SNP to bring them down. As for the LibDems I don't believe they will lift a finger to help the Tories for another generation. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'.
As Three Quidder states as largest party the Tories would be invited to form a government first, the LDs would likely abstain and Tories plus DUP plus UUP plus UKIP will outvote Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Greens
Mark Carney again on Marr this morning in complete control of his absolute independence and was a masterclass in integrity. Along comes Boris with the 'Hitler' word which has been the main universal pro leave anti remain narrative across the whole paper and by the individual journalists reports. Does seem strange
Leave has been poor on economics, because they have ignored the reality that is based on the parliamentary arithmetic. The ballot paper only states Leave/remain in the EU. What will parliament do. My guess is that they will do minimum necessary to fulfill the terms on the ballot paper, leave via EEA/EFTA. This negates economic risk, removes the Tory fear of economic shock and reinforces the Eurozone by not disrupting trade.
Yes and that includes free movement of labour so if leave win but free movement of labour continues it will be a travesty of democracy and question the validility of the referendum
No it won't, free movement is not on the ballot paper. This is a common argument I hear from Remainers. The referendum is advisory only. The main democratic.process in the UK is the legislative and the elections to it. They have primacy on all issues, except for where treaty obligations negate their decisions via the judicial system.
Good luck with that :-)
The question I would ask is "will Labour MPs Vote to.Leave the single market'?
Some will, undoubtedly. But if the Tories - who are the majority party, of course - do not take measures to significantly limit EU immigration then they will be pulverised at the following election. Boris, Gove etc will be in charge and they have put controlling immigration at the heart of the referendum campaign. They have to deliver.
They are stuffed both ways, because they thought they would win easily. Blunt truth is that they face 2 choices, recession or keeping FOM. They will choose the latter, and then invoke EEA article 112/113 to limit the impact of that.
I agree that FOM and continued unfettered access to the Single Market would be best for the country, but if Boris, Gove etc do not deliver the promised curbs on immigration they are buggered and will probably have completely screwed the Tories for a generation. That may not be a bad thing, of course :-)
When will Lefties on PB realise that Labour has absolutely no chance whatsoever of winning in 2020 as long as Corbyn and his current front bench are in place...the Brits might be auld sentimental softies but they are not bloody fools
When will you realise that almost no Leftie that posts on here believes that Corbyn will win in 2020? Not even those that support his leadership think that.
Depends what you mean by 'win'. Gaining sufficient seats to prevent the Tories being able to form a Minority Government is very possible.
"It is perfectly obvious to everyone that it cannot win a general election with Corbyn at the helm. It cannot."
That does not contradict my point at all. Getting to 323 is very unlikely under Corbyn - but reaching 250 - 260 is very possible with the Tories below 310. That would not be a 'win' but it might be enough to turf the Tories out!
No it would not, Labour will not form a government if 50 seats behind the Tories, the Tories would have the backing of UKIP and the unionists and while the LDs would not do another Coalition they would not back an SNP Labour deal either (neither would many Labour MPs)
But there would not be a Labour-SNP deal at all. Labour would simply defy the SNP to bring them down. As for the LibDems I don't believe they will lift a finger to help the Tories for another generation. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'.
In the situation you posit, the Tory leader gets first crack at a Queen's Speech.
Indeed so - but it would be likely to face defeat.
The Leave leadership's 'EU membership = Supporting the Nazis' assertion appears to be headlining on every major news outlet. It's very shrill but also quite dark. It also marks a radical shift in Leave's tactics. Hitherto the EU was portrayed as a kind of benign mishap - an inefficient bureaucracy with its heart in the right place but prone to bungling; we'd had enough of it but wished it no ill. (This was very much how Farage used to frame things.) Now Leave are portraying the EU as the very embodiment of evil. The eurosceptic Tories who now control Leave are showing a troubling degree of tone-deafness. Perhaps Farage can step in and calm things down.
And these are the people who will be negotiating post-Brexit.
No, they aren't.
It is absolutely clear now that if Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are goners. Even if Boris does not win the Tory leadership he will have a very senior cabinet position and so will be at the heart of the negotiations. If he is PM, as Cameron believes will be the case, then he will be leading them.
In the event of Brexit, Cameron will make Boris chief negotiator whatever happens. Dave's mindset will be: you've made this mess Boris, now you make the best of it. I'm sure Dave will do this, if only out of malice. And, of course, Dave wouldn't be human if he wasn't willing Boris to fail.
What could possibly go wrong with putting a notoriously lazy, untrustworthy politician with no eye for detail in charge of negotiating a deal with people he had previously likened to Nazis?
Hang on, how will it lead to higher taxes and less public spending?
Reducing immigration will reduce the number of people paying tax at a time when the population is growing older and more people are moving into retirement.
Most immigrants are in low paying jobs that are a negative impact on govt finances when the costs of supporting them and benefits are accounted for.
Says who?
Perhaps all those potato pickers, chambermaids, cleaners and carwashers are on above average wages.
But I suspect not.
If immigrants are so highly skilled / productive / paid / tax contributing then why has the decade of mass immigration also been the decade of stagnant productivity and real wages and during which the government has needed to borrow a trillion pounds to stop the economy from collapsing.
They are paying tax and they are taking out less than they put in. They are also a relatively small percentage of the workforce. In 2008 we have a financial crash. I imagine a fair few issues we have are related to that.
How much tax does a minimum wage potato picker pay ?
How do you know they're taking out less than they put in ?
Are they not eligible for benefits, do their kids not use the local schools, are they banned from using the NHS ?
As to their proportion of the workforce which part of the country has the highest percentage of Eastern European immigrants ?
Boston.
' Park primary demonstrates that demographic change: 62% of pupils at the school are from migrant backgrounds, overwhelmingly from eastern Europe. A recent Ofsted report, largely positive about the efforts being made in the face of obvious adversity, noted that almost all on arrival are at an early stage of learning English: no wonder the parking sign outside is translated into five languages. '
Nope they are not banned from using the NHS or any other public service. The issue is whether they use them. Some will, as is the case with the Boston example you cite, many others won't. That's why you have to look at the overall picture. And that indicates that the average EU immigrant - young, fit, single and mobile - pays in more than he/she takes out.
So why are we running of primary school places in London?
There was a sub thread going on about the Potato pickers on small wages but their children using our services ?
You know their wages are spent in the UK. Any VAT on their purchases are paid to the HMRC. It is not just about direct taxes and NIC.
The reason they are here is because Brits will not do those jobs. So either we import potatoes and other vegetable and fruits or pay much more for Brits to work [ if they at all do ] at the cost of much higher farm produce price.
I know because LEAVERs do not like Johnny Foreigner they will say they will buy imported produce.
Large numbers of immigrants will also (and I don't blame them; it's what I'd do) remit substantial sums from their earnings (and their benefits), to family members and other concerns 'back home'.
This is money being very directly funnelled out of the UK economy with no further benefit.
On the other hand if a Lithuanian potato picker has his children back home, the cost of their schooling and healthcare is borne by the Lithuanian economy, while tax and NI are paid here.
The Times reports Cameron believes his leadership is under threat even if Remain wins if it wins by less than 53% to 47%.
What could have given him that impression? All those Tory supporters saying they are coming for him no matter what?
According to the all the Cameron loyalists everything will return to normal after the referendum and it will all be forgotten within a couple of days.
The Tories are in a very bad place. Luckily for them, Corbyn is in charge of Labour. But the prospects for ordinary punters are not good whatever the result next month. We have a useless government and an opposition lacking any credibility.
The Leave leadership's 'EU membership = Supporting the Nazis' assertion appears to be headlining on every major news outlet. It's very shrill but also quite dark. It also marks a radical shift in Leave's tactics. Hitherto the EU was portrayed as a kind of benign mishap - an inefficient bureaucracy with its heart in the right place but prone to bungling; we'd had enough of it but wished it no ill. (This was very much how Farage used to frame things.) Now Leave are portraying the EU as the very embodiment of evil. The eurosceptic Tories who now control Leave are showing a troubling degree of tone-deafness. Perhaps Farage can step in and calm things down.
And these are the people who will be negotiating post-Brexit.
No, they aren't.
It is absolutely clear now that if Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are goners. Even if Boris does not win the Tory leadership he will have a very senior cabinet position and so will be at the heart of the negotiations. If he is PM, as Cameron believes will be the case, then he will be leading them.
In the event of Brexit, Cameron will make Boris chief negotiator whatever happens. Dave's mindset will be: you've made this mess Boris, now you make the best of it. I'm sure Dave will do this, if only out of malice. And, of course, Dave wouldn't be human if he wasn't willing Boris to fail.
What could possibly go wrong with putting a notoriously lazy, untrustworthy politician with no eye for detail in charge of negotiating a deal with people he had previously likened to Nazis?
I think Leave are very wrong (particularly Leave.EU and Nigel) to surrender the economic ground to the Remain blob. They should, as I've always said, attack the economic drawbacks and risks of staying in, of which there are many. Undermining the credibility of the doom mongers is right, but this 'sovereignty' malarkey, whilst absolutely right, is voter poison imo. Rather a shame, and will be to Leave's detriment I think, but maybe not show in the polling.
Leave are only 4pts behind on the economy - they aren't ceding any ground to my eyes.
The Leave argument should be as follows: "Anyone can rig an economic study with certain assumptions to say what they want it to say. But look around the world, and we see countries from Norway to New Zealand, Canada to Switzerland that are much richer than us and aren't part of the EU or any equivalent. Outside the EU we can sign our own trade agreements and make our own regulation to be rich like them."
We are richer than NZ by about USD 5000 per capita according to the IMF.
Per capita GDP in the UK is 25th in the world. 9/24 countries ahead of us are in the EU.
And how many of the fifteen other countries have an economic and fiscal plan predicated on continued membership of the EU and large-scale EU immigration? My guess is that the answer to that one is none.
Switzerland and Norway are in that 19 and have FOM, I am not sure about San Marino, but expect so too. The oil states of the Gulf are heavily dependent on immigrant workers, the USA, Canada and Australia all have per capita inward migration 2-3 times ours, Singapore too I think. The only countries above us in the rankings without significant inward migration are Saudi, Taiwan and Oman.
"On the other hand if a Lithuanian potato picker has his children back home, the cost of their schooling and healthcare is borne by the Lithuanian economy" - I hear 6 weeks here and child benefit wll be sent to you in your own ciountry until you are 18. Though I don't suppose anybody actually checks the entitlement.
The Leave leadership's 'EU membership = Supporting the Nazis' assertion appears to be headlining on every major news outlet. It's very shrill but also quite dark. It also marks a radical shift in Leave's tactics. Hitherto the EU was portrayed as a kind of benign mishap - an inefficient bureaucracy with its heart in the right place but prone to bungling; we'd had enough of it but wished it no ill. (This was very much how Farage used to frame things.) Now Leave are portraying the EU as the very embodiment of evil. The eurosceptic Tories who now control Leave are showing a troubling degree of tone-deafness. Perhaps Farage can step in and calm things down.
And these are the people who will be negotiating post-Brexit.
No, they aren't.
It is absolutely clear now that if Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are goners. Even if Boris does not win the Tory leadership he will have a very senior cabinet position and so will be at the heart of the negotiations. If he is PM, as Cameron believes will be the case, then he will be leading them.
In the event of Brexit, Cameron will make Boris chief negotiator whatever happens. Dave's mindset will be: you've made this mess Boris, now you make the best of it. I'm sure Dave will do this, if only out of malice. And, of course, Dave wouldn't be human if he wasn't willing Boris to fail.
Precisely, if we exit the EU on a wave of anti-immigration feeling it is only right that the victors get to sort it out from there on in. Remainsers should steer well clear of the negotiations so they can't get blamed for the consequences.
"On the other hand if a Lithuanian potato picker has his children back home, the cost of their schooling and healthcare is borne by the Lithuanian economy" - I hear 6 weeks here and child benefit wll be sent to you in your own ciountry until you are 18. Though I don't suppose anybody actually checks the entitlement.
I think Leave are very wrong (particularly Leave.EU and Nigel) to surrender the economic ground to the Remain blob. They should, as I've always said, attack the economic drawbacks and risks of staying in, of which there are many. Undermining the credibility of the doom mongers is right, but this 'sovereignty' malarkey, whilst absolutely right, is voter poison imo. Rather a shame, and will be to Leave's detriment I think, but maybe not show in the polling.
Leave are only 4pts behind on the economy - they aren't ceding any ground to my eyes.
The Leave argument should be as follows: "Anyone can rig an economic study with certain assumptions to say what they want it to say. But look around the world, and we see countries from Norway to New Zealand, Canada to Switzerland that are much richer than us and aren't part of the EU or any equivalent. Outside the EU we can sign our own trade agreements and make our own regulation to be rich like them."
We are richer than NZ by about USD 5000 per capita according to the IMF.
Per capita GDP in the UK is 25th in the world. 9/24 countries ahead of us are in the EU.
And how many of the fifteen other countries have an economic and fiscal plan predicated on continued membership of the EU and large-scale EU immigration? My guess is that the answer to that one is none.
Switzerland and Norway are in that 19 and have FOM, I am not sure about San Marino, but expect so too. The oil states of the Gulf are heavily dependent on immigrant workers, the USA, Canada and Australia all have per capita inward migration 2-3 times ours, Singapore too I think. The only countries above us in the rankings without significant inward migration are Saudi, Taiwan and Oman.
Mark Carney again on Marr this morning in complete control of his absolute independence and was a masterclass in integrity. Along comes Boris with the 'Hitler' word which has been the main story on the broadcast media all morning with pretty universal criticism. Put both of these news reports together and the narrative around them and it must be almost impossible for leave to win on economics. Also putting Farage on against David Cameron, with David Cameron following, must be considered a gift to remain as Farage will 'go way over the top on immigration' and has said this morning that GDP is not important. On another subject the Mail on Sunday seemed to be much more balanced today, notwithstanding it's front page, and absolutely nothing like the Daily Mail with it's universal pro leave anti remain narrative across the whole paper and by the individual journalists reports. Does seem strange
Leave has been poor on economics, because they have ignored the reality that is based on the parliamentary arithmetic. The ballot paper only states Leave/remain in the EU. What will parliament do. My guess is that they will do minimum necessary to fulfill the terms on the ballot paper, leave via EEA/EFTA. This negates economic risk, removes the Tory fear of economic shock and reinforces the Eurozone by not disrupting trade.
I accept that is what may happen but it's wrong. If Leave win it will almost certainly be on a tide of anti-immigration feeling. That must then be honoured and Leave must then be free to plough its own furough and opt for stopping immigration and losing the single market in the process. If Leave don't get what they want then we will have 20 more years of the Mail, Express, UKIP etc espousing stab-in-the-back theories.
Which is why I fear for our country if the result is anything other than a convincing Remain win. Anything else will poison our politics for decades to come.
Hang on, how will it lead to higher taxes and less public spending?
Reducing immigration will reduce the number of people paying tax at a time when the population is growing older and more people are moving into retirement.
Most immigrants are in low paying jobs that are a negative impact on govt finances when the costs of supporting them and benefits are accounted for.
Says who?
Perhaps all those potato pickers, chambermaids, cleaners and carwashers are on above average wages.
But I suspect not.
If immigrants are so highly skilled / productive / paid / tax contributing then why has the decade of mass immigration also been the decade of stagnant productivity and real wages and during which the government has needed to borrow a trillion pounds to stop the economy from collapsing.
They are paying tax and they are taking out less than they put in. They are also a relatively small percentage of the workforce. In 2008 we have a financial crash. I imagine a fair few issues we have are related to that.
How much tax does a minimum wage potato picker pay ?
How do you know they're taking out less than they put in ?
Are they not eligible for benefits, do their kids not use the local schools, are they banned from using the NHS ?
As to their proportion of the workforce which part of the country has the highest percentage of Eastern European immigrants ?
Boston.
' Park primary demonstrates that demographic change: 62% of pupils at the school are from migrant backgrounds, overwhelmingly from eastern Europe. A recent Ofsted report, largely positive about the efforts being made in the face of obvious adversity, noted that almost all on arrival are at an early stage of learning English: no wonder the parking sign outside is translated into five languages. '
Nope they are not banned from using the NHS or any other public service. The issue is whether they use them. Some will, as is the case with the Boston example you cite, many others won't. That's why you have to look at the overall picture. And that indicates that the average EU immigrant - young, fit, single and mobile - pays in more than he/she takes out.
So why are we running of primary school places in London?
"On the other hand if a Lithuanian potato picker has his children back home, the cost of their schooling and healthcare is borne by the Lithuanian economy" - I hear 6 weeks here and child benefit wll be sent to you in your own ciountry until you are 18. Though I don't suppose anybody actually checks the entitlement.
Child benefit is paid to 34 000 children living elsewhere in the EU at present:
Who pays for the healthcare costs of 200k Brits living in Costa del Sol etc. ? And, they are mostly pensioners.
We do:
Spain has both public and private healthcare systems. The public system provides free basic healthcare to those who contribute to the Spanish social security system and their families. The public system also provides free healthcare for retirees, including those from other EU countries. The UK government pays Spain an annual sum per pensioner to cover their health costs.
Mark Carney again on Marr this morning in complete control of his absolute independence and was a masterclass in integrity. Along comes Boris with the 'Hitler' word which has been the main universal pro leave anti remain narrative across the whole paper and by the individual journalists reports. Does seem strange
Leave has been poor on economics, because they have ignored the reality that is based on the parliamentary arithmetic. The ballot paper only states Leave/remain in the EU. What will parliament do. My guess is that they will do minimum necessary to fulfill the terms on the ballot paper, leave via EEA/EFTA. This negates economic risk, removes the Tory fear of economic shock and reinforces the Eurozone by not disrupting trade.
Yes and that includes free movement of labour so if leave win but free movement of labour continues it will be a travesty of democracy and question the validility of the referendum
No it won't, free .....
Good luck with that :-)
The question I would ask is "will Labour MPs Vote to.Leave the single market'?
Some will, undoubtedly. But if the Tories - who are the majority party, of course - do not take measures to significantly limit EU immigration then they will be pulverised at the following election. Boris, Gove etc will be in charge and they have put controlling immigration at the heart of the referendum campaign. They have to deliver.
They are stuffed both ways, because they thought they would win easily. Blunt truth is that they face 2 choices, recession or keeping FOM. They will choose the latter, and then invoke EEA article 112/113 to limit the impact of that.
I agree that FOM and continued unfettered access to the Single Market would be best for the country, but if Boris, Gove etc do not deliver the promised curbs on immigration they are buggered and will probably have completely screwed the Tories for a generation. That may not be a bad thing, of course :-)
The Tory party, like UKIP, has served a purpose which may no longer be needed. I'm hoping that in a generation we will have seen the back of them both in exchange for a new and truly " Liberal" party - internationalist, economically liberal, socially liberal but smaller state and very less ideologically restricted.
When will Lefties on PB realise that Labour has absolutely no chance whatsoever of winning in 2020 as long as Corbyn and his current front bench are in place...the Brits might be auld sentimental softies but they are not bloody fools
When will you realise that almost no Leftie that posts on here believes that Corbyn will win in 2020? Not even those that support his leadership think that.
Depends what you mean by 'win'. Gaining sufficient seats to prevent the Tories being able to form a Minority Government is very possible.
"It is perfectly obvious to everyone that it cannot win a general election with Corbyn at the helm. It cannot."
That does not contradict my point at all. Getting to 323 is very unlikely under Corbyn - but reaching 250 - 260 is very possible with the Tories below 310. That would not be a 'win' but it might be enough to turf the Tories out!
No it would not, Labour will not form a government if 50 seats behind the Tories, the Tories would have the backing of UKIP and the unionists and while the LDs would not do another Coalition they would not back an SNP Labour deal either (neither would many Labour MPs)
But there would not be a Labour-SNP deal at all. Labour would simply defy the SNP to bring them down. As for the LibDems I don't believe they will lift a finger to help the Tories for another generation. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'.
In the situation you posit, the Tory leader gets first crack at a Queen's Speech.
Indeed so - but it would be likely to face defeat.
No as I outlined it would win with the LDs abstaining
The Times reports Cameron believes his leadership is under threat even if Remain wins if it wins by less than 53% to 47%. If Remain wins by more than 10% he will force Eurosceptics to agree the UK stays in the EU for a generation. He also thinks Boris is unstoppable before 2019
Why on Earth should Eurosceptics concede the issue with only a five point swing needed? Especially when that result was only achieved with a huge spend by the taxpayer for Remain?
Could we maybe add some context to this by showing how far in front of the Scottish No campaign Remain are at the moment? I've only really followed the campaign through this site, but from what I've read it must be quite a considerable margin. The UK government didn't get involved in Scotland until late in the process, whereas they've called in the big guns right from the start here. Better Together had Alistair Darling- not exactly the most charismatic man on the planet- whereas Remain has Obama and Cameron. The Scottish Yes campaign was led by the SNP, which could use Scottish government resources and had a solid ground game of its own, whereas Vote Leave is a collection of clowns (Boris, Lawson) and divisive figures (Gove, Farage). Furthermore, the SNP had just won a majority at Holyrood, whereas UKIP failed at the general election and is apparently circling the drain.
I wouldn't be surprised if Remain were ten to fifteen points ahead of the Scottish No campaign at this stage. Leave might as well throw in the towel now and save their backers' money.
On the contrary, Scottish No was 10-15 points ahead of Remain at a similar stage:
Hence the total panic now from Remain who expected their SIndy strategy to work for the EUref.
Did it though? No had a larger lead at the start of the campaign in Scotland than the end
Polling on the AV referendum (peace be upon it) moved the other way. 2 months out polling was neck and neck, but a decisive victory for the status quo on the day.
Different elections have different dynamics. Brexit is not a re-run of the Sindyref, so parallels are very limited.
A/V was an obscure voting system, EU ref like indyref is about nationalism
Mark Carney again on Marr this morning in complete control of his absolute independence and was a masterclass in integrity. Along comes Boris with the 'Hitler' word which has been the main story on the broadcast media all morning with pretty universal criticism. Put both of these news reports together and the narrative around them and it must be almost impossible for leave to win on economics. Also putting Farage on against David Cameron, with David Cameron following, must be considered a gift to remain as Farage will 'go way over the top on immigration' and has said this morning that GDP is not important. On another subject the Mail on Sunday seemed to be much more balanced today, notwithstanding it's front page, and absolutely nothing like the Daily Mail with it's universal pro leave anti remain narrative across the whole paper and by the individual journalists reports. Does seem strange
Leave has been poor on economics, because they have ignored the reality that is based on the parliamentary arithmetic. The ballot paper only states Leave/remain in the EU. What will parliament do. My guess is that they will do minimum necessary to fulfill the terms on the ballot paper, leave via EEA/EFTA. This negates economic risk, removes the Tory fear of economic shock and reinforces the Eurozone by not disrupting trade.
I accept that is what may happen but it's wrong. If Leave win it will almost certainly be on a tide of anti-immigration feeling. That must then be honoured and Leave must then be free to plough its own furough and opt for stopping immigration and losing the single market in the process. If Leave don't get what they want then we will have 20 more years of the Mail, Express, UKIP etc espousing stab-in-the-back theories.
Which is why I fear for our country if the result is anything other than a convincing Remain win. Anything else will poison our politics for decades to come.
If the argument is that a Leave vote would require the government to seek a deal without freedom of movement on the basis of how the campaign was conducted, then similarly a Remain vote would preclude the government acquiescing to the continuing process of federalisation. Which will go down very badly in Brussels and Berlin.
Odd. When Red Ken cited the supposed endorsement of Hitler to discredit a concept he didn't like, there was a near unanimity of condemnation from the PB Leave community. Boris employs an identical tactic and not a peep. Why not?
There was a sub thread going on about the Potato pickers on small wages but their children using our services ?
You know their wages are spent in the UK. Any VAT on their purchases are paid to the HMRC. It is not just about direct taxes and NIC.
The reason they are here is because Brits will not do those jobs. So either we import potatoes and other vegetable and fruits or pay much more for Brits to work [ if they at all do ] at the cost of much higher farm produce price.
I know because LEAVERs do not like Johnny Foreigner they will say they will buy imported produce.
Large numbers of immigrants will also (and I don't blame them; it's what I'd do) remit substantial sums from their earnings (and their benefits), to family members and other concerns 'back home'.
This is money being very directly funnelled out of the UK economy with no further benefit.
And this is one of the reasons why the UK's current account deficit is at an all time high.
Comments
This is money being very directly funnelled out of the UK economy with no further benefit.
Per capita GDP in the UK is 25th in the world. 9/24 countries ahead of us are in the EU.
Though in Boston you will see a lot of Polish, Lithuanian and Portuguese school children learning to be good little Britons.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2898582/Britain-paying-child-benefit-34-000-children-EU-parties-agree-mad-deal-ending-handouts-years-off.html
Of course this doesn't come close to covering the costs of upkeep, education and healthcare. Indeed the UK taxpayer gets the better end of the deal!
Spain has both public and private healthcare systems. The public system provides free basic healthcare to those who contribute to the Spanish social security system and their families. The public system also provides free healthcare for retirees, including those from other EU countries. The UK government pays Spain an annual sum per pensioner to cover their health costs.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2008/apr/08/expat-finance-spain
From 2008, but I doubt it has changed. My bold
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John founded JML - which sells tat on channels you (probably) don't watch - and has donated squillions to Labour (£1.65m in 2013, for instance)
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