If we assume that a recession is coming - and unwelcome though it is the signs do seem to point that way - then there are risks either way. If Remain wins and we suffer anyway, Brexit supporters will argue that we'd have been better off out and will encourage a false memory that Cameron promised great times if we stayed in.
Let me see will this be the 3rd recession or 4th under the Tories since 2010 ( hat tip Surbiton) of a triple dip (Ed Balls) or quadruple dip (anyone?) Hard to keep up with the opposition and their supporters claims sometimes.
Mmmmmm.....
If this had been anyone but the left wing then they would be accused of "talking Britain down" (the claim of the entire government front bench when they received warnings their polices would cause as it did the Great Labour recession of 2008/2009.
I think BenM (late of this parish) was the Holder of the Quadruple Dip.....
Ahhh...my bad. Whatever happened to the economic genius of BenM? He actually did raise some good points but spoiled them sometimes with some bizarre claims.
He's mostly taking a break from politics, but still on Twitter.
We need to consider time frames here. How long after a vote to leave would it take to actually leave? I suspect what TSE is really saying is that a recession shortly after a vote to leave could be blamed on voting to leave.
Financially this country is completely f****** whether we stay in the EU or not. At some point our government will have to make some very tough decisions. While I'm happy to see those decisions taken outside the EU - and take any collateral criticism from the told you so brigade - should we vote to stay in, one silver lining will be watching Cameron and Osborne deal with the faltering economy.
It won't Osborne's problem after July....
I don't envy whoever follows Osborne. I get that he inherited a pretty dire situation from Labour, bur Osborne's latest budget was a disgrace. I hope whoever takes over from him in June - should that happen - gets on with the business of sorting out the public finances rather than buying off the votes of backbenchers.
I'd forgotten all about the budget.
That was full of wheezes that have fallen apart pretty quickly.
It was another "game-changer" for Remain that's has turned out to be a damp squib.
Yes, all these game changers from Osborne running the REMAIN campaign. Just like all those relaunches of Brown as PM we used to watch.....
We need to consider time frames here. How long after a vote to leave would it take to actually leave? I suspect what TSE is really saying is that a recession shortly after a vote to leave could be blamed on voting to leave.
Financially this country is completely f****** whether we stay in the EU or not. At some point our government will have to make some very tough decisions. While I'm happy to see those decisions taken outside the EU - and take any collateral criticism from the told you so brigade - should we vote to stay in, one silver lining will be watching Cameron and Osborne deal with the faltering economy.
It won't Osborne's problem after July....
I don't envy whoever follows Osborne. I get that he inherited a pretty dire situation from Labour, bur Osborne's latest budget was a disgrace. I hope whoever takes over from him in June - should that happen - gets on with the business of sorting out the public finances rather than buying off the votes of backbenchers.
I'd forgotten all about the budget.
That was full of wheezes that have fallen apart pretty quickly.
It was another "game-changer" for Remain that's has turned out to be a damp squib.
Yes, all these game changers from Osborne running the REMAIN campaign. Just like all those relaunches of Brown as PM we used to watch.....
Oh my, I'd forgotten about Gordon's relaunches - they were brilliantly awful.
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
Did you miss the poll of polls you deluded freak?
50/50
At what point will the flailing REMAINIACS admit that all is not going quite to plan?
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
Did you miss the poll of polls you deluded freak?
50/50
At what point will the flailing REMAINIACS admit that all is not going quite to plan?
When dave & JPMorgan & TheSquid &... have paid them off.
If leaving the EU reduces the tax take as a consequence of reduced growth, then the money saved by not contributing to the Brussels wallet will not be additional income for the government but a small plug to mitigate a widening deficit. The only way that doesn't happen is if withdrawal has no effect on GDP.
This government's economic and fiscal plans - until recently very widely supported on here - are predicated on EU membership and high levels of immigration.
How exactly does that square with net immigration being less than 100,000 a year?
All these economic forecasts coming out (some even from HM Treasury) show that Cameron is a bare-faced liar but, more interestingly, is introducing immigration into the debate in a non-toxic way.
Vote Remain for higher housing costs, lower wages and more terrorism so that landlords, businessmen and politicians can benefit is hardly an attractive proposition.
Tory economic and fiscal policy has been very clear. It's all there in black and white. It greatly puzzles me that people who a few months ago sung its praises now believe they were lied to. But if that is the case, what are they now proposing? What new policies do they want? A longer timeframe to eliminate the deficit, higher taxes, an even bigger public spending squeeze, or what?
Was it pointed out so regularly that Tory economic policies would smash their immigration pledge?
The way to square the circle is "points-based immigration system", increasing the quality of immigrants and reducing their quantity. This is impossible while we remain in the EU.
It was clear from all the stats provided that Tory policy depended on ongoing, high levels of immigration. Whether we have a points system or not, to have a chance of hitting targets that immigration has to continue. If you want to reduce immigration, you need to explain how you are going to make up for the hole in government income that will cause: change the deficit elimination target date, higher taxes, less spending, or what?
Productivity.
Stop importing sub-minimum wage earners.
Start importing high value achievers and their capital.
Get (gdp per capita) rich.
All nice easy ones then!
Reducing the number of immigrants from europe would have quite a few economic effects, some possibly beneficial such as easing pressure on housing, but others less so. The increase in population from young and fertile europeans offsets our ageing baby boomer population. Without them the dependency ratio becomes a lot worse means higher taxes/lower pensions/working longer for the working age population.
The scenario that this article describes is quite plausible. Of course, it first requires Leave to win and there to be a moderately severe recession. I don't think it requires an absolute economic meltdown though.
The problems for the new Conservative regime will be:
* it will be said that they ignored an endless litany of warnings * the "it's a price worth paying" comments will be thrown back at them - it will be easy to argue that the Brexit Government knew there would be a recession and didn't care
The obvious defence would be:
* it's just the business cycle and it was going to happen anyway * it would have been worse if we had voted Remain
Good luck with that.
I don't think Corbyn is a cast-iron get out of jail card for the Tories in such a case but he would still be an asset. The Tories probably can't drop far below ~310 seats (assuming no reduction) and remain in power though.
Of course, poor Tory polling would make Corbyn less likely to step down.
Let's assume Britain votes Leave. Let's also assume that Britain suffers the economic shock that almost every serious economic commentator is expecting. The "price worth paying" attitude of the committed Leavers is then going to sound awful. Since the Conservative party by that stage will be in their hands, TSE's theory looks sound to me.
If Leave wins part of me is looking forward to sitting back and watching them try and make it work. If it happens I hope every Remain politician walks away on June 24th so Boris & Farage and co can't have anybody else to try and blame if and when things go tits up. If they succeed in convincing the British Public then it needs to absolutely their show from day 1 and everyone else should leave them to it.
First casualty of the SNP's "triumph" of losing their majority - the repeal of:
“arguably the most authoritarian piece of legislation in modern times in Britain. That you can go to prison for five years for being offensive at a football match is insane.”
Turkey are threatening to unleash a new wave of immigrants on the continent before July if it's free movement claim for its citizens are not met. Whether we have passport controls or not that would make very interesting headlines for both remain and leave just before the referendum.
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
Did you miss the poll of polls you deluded freak?
50/50
At what point will the flailing REMAINIACS admit that all is not going quite to plan?
When they have hired Emperor Hirohito to do their PR.....
If we assume that a recession is coming - and unwelcome though it is the signs do seem to point that way - then there are risks either way. If Remain wins and we suffer anyway, Brexit supporters will argue that we'd have been better off out and will encourage a false memory that Cameron promised great times if we stayed in.
Sven:
Yes we are due a slow-down. Doubtful a recession though.
We missed the 1999/2000 dip and suffered in 2007/2008: Recovery has been slow since. We may get a quater of flat growth but that is the best straw you van cling to.
If leaving the EU reduces the tax take as a consequence of reduced growth, then the money saved by not contributing to the Brussels wallet will not be additional income for the government but a small plug to mitigate a widening deficit. The only way that doesn't happen is if withdrawal has no effect on GDP.
This government's economic and fiscal plans - until recently very widely supported on here - are predicated on EU membership and high levels of immigration.
How exactly does that square with net immigration being less than 100,000 a year?
All these economic forecasts coming out (some even from HM Treasury) show that Cameron is a bare-faced liar but, more interestingly, is introducing immigration into the debate in a non-toxic way.
Vote Remain for higher housing costs, lower wages and more terrorism so that landlords, businessmen and politicians can benefit is hardly an attractive proposition.
Tory economic and fiscal policy has been very clear. It's all there in black and white. It greatly puzzles me that people who a few months ago sung its praises now believe they were lied to. But if that is the case, what are they now proposing? What new policies do they want? A longer timeframe to eliminate the deficit, higher taxes, an even bigger public spending squeeze, or what?
Was it pointed out so regularly that Tory economic policies would smash their immigration pledge?
The way to square the circle is "points-based immigration system", increasing the quality of immigrants and reducing their quantity. This is impossible while we remain in the EU.
It was clear from all the stats provided that Tory policy depended on ongoing, high levels of immigration. Whether we have a points system or not, to have a chance of hitting targets that immigration has to continue. If you want to reduce immigration, you need to explain how you are going to make up for the hole in government income that will cause: change the deficit elimination target date, higher taxes, less spending, or what?
Productivity.
Stop importing sub-minimum wage earners.
Start importing high value achievers and their capital.
Get (gdp per capita) rich.
All nice easy ones then!
Took Singapore about a century to go from a swamp to approaching twice our gdp per cap
Reducing the number of immigrants from europe would have quite a few economic effects, some possibly beneficial such as easing pressure on housing, but others less so. The increase in population from young and fertile europeans offsets our ageing baby boomer population. Without them the dependency ratio becomes a lot worse means higher taxes/lower pensions/working longer for the working age population.
The maths doesn't work under your scheme - either these immigrants are going to return home (presumably, if they are EU) with some portable pension rights from the UK government. Alternatively they will stay and require additional people in future to fund them.
The real solution (easy in theory, I warrant!) is to fund pensions on an ongoing basis. But unfortunately as they are currently paid out of taxation this will be very expensive over a 30 years+ basis...
Boris compares the EU to Hitler. First Ken, now Boris. Is the London Mayor's office built on an old Nazi burial ground?
Did Nicholas Ridley get sacked in vain? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Ridley,_Baron_Ridley_of_Liddesdale#Secretary_of_State_for_Trade_and_Industry On 14 July 1990 he was forced to resign as Secretary of State for Trade and Industry after an interview published in The Spectator. He had described the proposed Economic and Monetary Union as "a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe" and said that giving up sovereignty to the European Union was as bad as giving it up to Adolf Hitler.
Hmmmmm..... for Boris, Ridley: Hitler = A Bad Thing
For Ken : Hitler = he was misunderstood when it came to the Jews....
But thanks for bringing it up again.
All our present misfortunes began when we foolishly took sides in the great Russo-German war of 1914."
Europe's choice of winner in the Eurovision song contest is in line with this sentiment.
Or alternatively Hitchens is an idiot who doesn't know what he's talking about. By 'the Russo German war' I presume he's talking about the war when Germany aggressively attacked three countries whose safety Britain had guaranteed and whose security was a vital sine qua non for both our economy and for our own security? That Russo German war?
Hitchens is almost as profoundly ignorant/disingenuous/incompetent (delete as appropriate) as his brother - and very fortunately there are very few you can say that about.
I would be careful in dismissing Hitchens as a know nothing. He lived in Russia for several years so probably better understands what makes Russia tick than any of us.
Russia has always had a fear of invasion and World War 2 has left them almost paranoid about it (given they lost about 40 million citizens hardly surprising)
The EU and USA set out to destablise the previous pro russian regime and replace it with one friendly to them. That the previous regime wasn't very nice is irrelevant, they were elected. The new regime isn't very nice either and was installed in a Putsch. The EU has form on this - look at the defenestration of elected governments in Greece and Italy.
A close relative who lived through WW2 said that she was voting out a while back because otherwise we will be run by Germany. Boris has, again, cut through the crap and hit the nail on the head.
German expansionism started centuries before Hitler, thats why Poland was partitioned in 1772 and how Germany (then called Prussia) conquered the whole of the Baltic coast as far as Memel. Boris is right to say that the EU is becoming the continuation of centuries old German foreign policy by other means.
Let's assume Britain votes Leave. Let's also assume that Britain suffers the economic shock that almost every serious economic commentator is expecting. The "price worth paying" attitude of the committed Leavers is then going to sound awful. Since the Conservative party by that stage will be in their hands, TSE's theory looks sound to me.
If Leave wins part of me is looking forward to sitting back and watching them try and make it work. If it happens I hope every Remain politician walks away on June 24th so Boris & Farage and co can't have anybody else to try and blame if and when things go tits up. If they succeed in convincing the British Public then it needs to absolutely their show from day 1 and everyone else should leave them to it.
That's a classic "picking up the football and going home " type of post if you can't get your own way.
The more sensible amongst us will, whichever way it goes, try to make it work for future generations whatever our personal preferences happen to be. That's democracy and how it should be when the people have spoken.
Labour launching £500k direct mail/social media campaign from Monday. Targeting jobs and the economy in safe Labour areas with a Ukip presence, according to Times.
Took Singapore about a century to go from a swamp to approaching twice our gdp per cap
I'm sure we can do it in less.
Might need to find our Lee Kuan Yew..
TSE had put himself forward for the role of Great Benevolent Dictator, but since then seems to have put his faith in Cameron and Osborne to do the trick.
Took Singapore about a century to go from a swamp to approaching twice our gdp per cap
I'm sure we can do it in less.
Might need to find our Lee Kuan Yew..
TSE had put himself forward for the role of Great Benevolent Dictator, but since then seems to have put his faith in Cameron and Osborne to do the trick.
@faisalislam: In brain de Boris, EU gone from Churchill successful method to stop another Hitler, to "different method" to achieve what Hitler "tried out"
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
Did you miss the poll of polls you deluded freak?
50/50
At what point will the flailing REMAINIACS admit that all is not going quite to plan?
Let's assume Britain votes Leave. Let's also assume that Britain suffers the economic shock that almost every serious economic commentator is expecting. The "price worth paying" attitude of the committed Leavers is then going to sound awful. Since the Conservative party by that stage will be in their hands, TSE's theory looks sound to me.
If Leave wins part of me is looking forward to sitting back and watching them try and make it work. If it happens I hope every Remain politician walks away on June 24th so Boris & Farage and co can't have anybody else to try and blame if and when things go tits up. If they succeed in convincing the British Public then it needs to absolutely their show from day 1 and everyone else should leave them to it.
They will not walk away from the trough , they are there to fill their pockets and will need to be prised out.
If leaving the EU reduces the tax take as a consequence of reduced growth, then the money saved by not contributing to the Brussels wallet will not be additional income for the government but a small plug to mitigate a widening deficit. The only way that doesn't happen is if withdrawal has no effect on GDP.
This government's economic and fiscal plans - until recently very widely supported on here - are predicated on EU membership and high levels of immigration.
.
Was it pointed out so regularly that Tory economic policies would smash their immigration pledge?
The way to square the circle is "points-based immigration system", increasing the quality of immigrants and reducing their quantity. This is impossible while we remain in the EU.
It was clear from all the stats provided that Tory policy depended on ongoing, high levels of immigration. Whether we have a points system or not, to have a chance of hitting targets that immigration has to continue. If you want to reduce immigration, you need to explain how you are going to make up for the hole in government income that will cause: change the deficit elimination target date, higher taxes, less spending, or what? How exactly does that square with net immigration being less than 100,000 a year?
All these economic forecasts coming out (some even from HM Treasury) show that Cameron is a bare-faced liar but, more interestingly, is introducing immigration into the debate in a non-toxic way.
Vote Remain for higher housing costs, lower wages and more terrorism so that landlords, businessmen and politicians can benefit is hardly an attractive proposition
Productivity.
Stop importing sub-minimum wage earners.
Start importing high value achievers and their capital.
Get (gdp per capita) rich.
All nice easy ones then!
Reducing the number of immigrants from europe would have quite a few economic effects, some possibly beneficial such as easing pressure on housing, but others less so. The increase in population from young and fertile europeans offsets our ageing baby boomer population. Without them the dependency ratio becomes a lot worse means higher taxes/lower pensions/working longer for the working age population.
Where are these "fertile" Europeans coming from? Where in the EU has a high per capita birth rate?
Considering that, won't your policy simply transfer our problems to their former countries?
A disgraceful and immoral beggar-thy-neighbour policy from you.
The entire project was going to be scrapped by the SNP when the Nationalists formed their first minority government at Holyrood in 2007, only for the decision to be overturned by the will of the other parties in the Scottish Parliament.
Labour, LibDems, Conservatives and Greens allied to keep the trams project alive, with Wendy Alexander, Labour's transport spokeswoman, alleging SNP moves to scrap the trams and the Edinburgh Airport Rail Link (Earl) "oozed party prejudice and geographic grudge".
What is it about this referendum which is calling forth all sorts of wild hyperbole from both sides?
Maybe that Remain have no talking points as to why the EU is a Wonderful Thing Worth Fighting For. They get stumped when asked "If we weren't inside today, would you join the EU as currently set up?"
Maybe that Leave have no agreed common ground on what Life Outside the EU looks like?
The paucity of argument leaves both sides with just shit-flinging.
The SNP group on Edinburgh council, which campaigned vigorously under Alex Salmond against the project from its inception on cost grounds, swung behind the proposal after initially indicating it would vote it down.
Boris compares the EU to Hitler. First Ken, now Boris. Is the London Mayor's office built on an old Nazi burial ground?
Did Nicholas Ridley get sacked in vain? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Ridley,_Baron_Ridley_of_Liddesdale#Secretary_of_State_for_Trade_and_Industry On 14 July 1990 he was forced to resign as Secretary of State for Trade and Industry after an interview published in The Spectator. He had described the proposed Economic and Monetary Union as "a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe" and said that giving up sovereignty to the European Union was as bad as giving it up to Adolf Hitler.
Hmmmmm..... for Boris, Ridley: Hitler = A Bad Thing
For Ken : Hitler = he was misunderstood when it came to the Jews....
But thanks for bringing it up again.
All our present misfortunes began when we foolishly took sides in the great Russo-German war of 1914."
Europe's choice of winner in the Eurovision song contest is in line with this sentiment.
A close relative who lived through WW2 said that she was voting out a while back because otherwise we will be run by Germany. Boris has, again, cut through the crap and hit the nail on the head.
Almost *all* the non-rich WWC oldies are for OUT. These are the same class that vote No in scotref.
I'm doing a lot of leafleting and some canvassing.
Reception much more positive than party campaigning.
Let's assume Britain votes Leave. Let's also assume that Britain suffers the economic shock that almost every serious economic commentator is expecting. The "price worth paying" attitude of the committed Leavers is then going to sound awful. Since the Conservative party by that stage will be in their hands, TSE's theory looks sound to me.
If Leave wins part of me is looking forward to sitting back and watching them try and make it work. If it happens I hope every Remain politician walks away on June 24th so Boris & Farage and co can't have anybody else to try and blame if and when things go tits up. If they succeed in convincing the British Public then it needs to absolutely their show from day 1 and everyone else should leave them to it.
That's a classic "picking up the football and going home " type of post if you can't get your own way.
The more sensible amongst us will, whichever way it goes, try to make it work for future generations whatever our personal preferences happen to be. That's democracy and how it should be when the people have spoken.
I am surprised he didn't say he was going to emigrate.
Actually, if we leave, then without free movement how will we get rid of our malcontents?
The entire project was going to be scrapped by the SNP when the Nationalists formed their first minority government at Holyrood in 2007, only for the decision to be overturned by the will of the other parties in the Scottish Parliament.
Labour, LibDems, Conservatives and Greens allied to keep the trams project alive, with Wendy Alexander, Labour's transport spokeswoman, alleging SNP moves to scrap the trams and the Edinburgh Airport Rail Link (Earl) "oozed party prejudice and geographic grudge".
Scott is not too bright and takes memory lapses over Tory blunders. He is all for Sectarianism though , frothing at the mouth at the thought of the Tories getting the sensible law overturned, oblivious to the fact that it is very popular with the public apart from right wing unionist sorts.
Boris Johnson's comments overnight bely his odds of 11-4 fav for next Tory leader.No surprise perhaps he is the layers' friend.Lay all day.
What did Boris say overnight? I'm just catching up with stuff.
Hitler, Napoleon tried to rule Europe the EU are doing the same but using different methods. Hardly shocking stuff given if we leave WW3 will start week Thursday
There is no doubt that high levels of working age immigration removing any shortage of labour (and indeed of significant wage increases) is a key plank of the Government's economic model. It therefore stands to reason that Brexit, combined with a much more restrictive immigration policy, is going to result in a reduction in projected GDP for UK plc.
Whether we will actually be worse off or whether a slightly smaller cake would simply get divided into fewer pieces is harder to say. It is possible that without this unlimited source of skilled labour serious underlying problems in our economy such as our very poor commitment to training, our extremely ordinary, bordering on incompetent, tertiary education systems and the lack of quality in our management would become more of an issue, indeed I think that is likely.
But these are problems that we need to address. Our current immigration policies are a Ponzi scheme by which we keep things going by making use of the current workforce to pay for ongoing liabilities. Those 900K immigrants from the EU who have made permanent homes here in the last 5 years will grow old, need pensions, healthcare, social care and sheltered housing too.
If we accept that the most densely populated part of Europe cannot simply keep importing more and more labour indefinitely without reaching an intolerable state of affairs with a much reduced quality of living there are a series of problems that we will need to address and there will be adjustment pains. Anyone who claims otherwise is being dishonest but so are those who claim everything is going to be fine if we carry on with the current policies. They are simply not sustainable in even the medium term.
Boris compares the EU to Hitler. First Ken, now Boris. Is the London Mayor's office built on an old Nazi burial ground?
Did Nicholas Ridley get sacked in vain? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Ridley,_Baron_Ridley_of_Liddesdale#Secretary_of_State_for_Trade_and_Industry On 14 July 1990 he was forced to resign as Secretary of State for Trade and Industry after an interview published in The Spectator. He had described the proposed Economic and Monetary Union as "a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe" and said that giving up sovereignty to the European Union was as bad as giving it up to Adolf Hitler.
Hmmmmm..... for Boris, Ridley: Hitler = A Bad Thing
For Ken : Hitler = he was misunderstood when it came to the Jews....
But thanks for bringing it up again.
All our present misfortunes began when we foolishly took sides in the great Russo-German war of 1914."
Europe's choice of winner in the Eurovision song contest is in line with this sentiment.
A close relative who lived through WW2 said that she was voting out a while back because otherwise we will be run by Germany. Boris has, again, cut through the crap and hit the nail on the head.
Almost *all* the non-rich WWC oldies are for OUT. These are the same class that vote No in scotref.
I'm doing a lot of leafleting and some canvassing.
Reception much more positive than party campaigning.
Dodgy dave is in for shock.
This is true. Unfortunately their motivation isn't particularly pleasant in many cases.
The SNP group on Edinburgh council, which campaigned vigorously under Alex Salmond against the project from its inception on cost grounds, swung behind the proposal after initially indicating it would vote it down.
Mmmm.....That's a somewhat different slant to the one you put across a few minutes ago
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
Remain's problem is that only a minority think they'd be worse off, in the event of Brexit.
"Labour supporters - vote Leave to get a Labour government in 2020".
OK, I will.
It's saying that a Brexit that goes badly could have that effect.
If it does, so be it, we can reverse it at the election after in 2025. We can never reverse a remain vote at any election however badly the EU govern us.
What is it about this referendum which is calling forth all sorts of wild hyperbole from both sides?
Maybe that Remain have no talking points as to why the EU is a Wonderful Thing Worth Fighting For. They get stumped when asked "If we weren't inside today, would you join the EU as currently set up?"
Maybe that Leave have no agreed common ground on what Life Outside the EU looks like?
The paucity of argument leaves both sides with just shit-flinging.
Agree. Doesn’t inspire the Great British Public though. And, TBH, doesn’t inspire me to go out and get involved with campaigning. Even though I think Leaving would not be in UK’s best interests.
If you hang about when s**t is flying, some of it sticks to you!
There is no doubt that high levels of working age immigration removing any shortage of labour (and indeed of significant wage increases) is a key plank of the Government's economic model. It therefore stands to reason that Brexit, combined with a much more restrictive immigration policy, is going to result in a reduction in projected GDP for UK plc.
Whether we will actually be worse off or whether a slightly smaller cake would simply get divided into fewer pieces is harder to say. It is possible that without this unlimited source of skilled labour serious underlying problems in our economy such as our very poor commitment to training, our extremely ordinary, bordering on incompetent, tertiary education systems and the lack of quality in our management would become more of an issue, indeed I think that is likely.
But these are problems that we need to address. Our current immigration policies are a Ponzi scheme by which we keep things going by making use of the current workforce to pay for ongoing liabilities. Those 900K immigrants from the EU who have made permanent homes here in the last 5 years will grow old, need pensions, healthcare, social care and sheltered housing too.
If we accept that the most densely populated part of Europe cannot simply keep importing more and more labour indefinitely without reaching an intolerable state of affairs with a much reduced quality of living there are a series of problems that we will need to address and there will be adjustment pains. Anyone who claims otherwise is being dishonest but so are those who claim everything is going to be fine if we carry on with the current policies. They are simply not sustainable in even the medium term.
Most EU countries have low birthrates. Sooner or later, we'll exhaust the supply of people who want to come here.
And, as you point out, we're trading short term fiscal gains for long term pressure on public spending.
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
Remain's problem is that only a minority think they'd be worse off, in the event of Brexit.
And Remain's strategy is to see if they can introduce that fear into 50.01% of the population.
It's not an edifying sight, but it may be effective.
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
Did you miss the poll of polls you deluded freak?
50/50
At what point will the flailing REMAINIACS admit that all is not going quite to plan?
There is no doubt that high levels of working age immigration removing any shortage of labour (and indeed of significant wage increases) is a key plank of the Government's economic model. It therefore stands to reason that Brexit, combined with a much more restrictive immigration policy, is going to result in a reduction in projected GDP for UK plc.
Whether we will actually be worse off or whether a slightly smaller cake would simply get divided into fewer pieces is harder to say. It is possible that without this unlimited source of skilled labour serious underlying problems in our economy such as our very poor commitment to training, our extremely ordinary, bordering on incompetent, tertiary education systems and the lack of quality in our management would become more of an issue, indeed I think that is likely.
But these are problems that we need to address. Our current immigration policies are a Ponzi scheme by which we keep things going by making use of the current workforce to pay for ongoing liabilities. Those 900K immigrants from the EU who have made permanent homes here in the last 5 years will grow old, need pensions, healthcare, social care and sheltered housing too.
If we accept that the most densely populated part of Europe cannot simply keep importing more and more labour indefinitely without reaching an intolerable state of affairs with a much reduced quality of living there are a series of problems that we will need to address and there will be adjustment pains. Anyone who claims otherwise is being dishonest but so are those who claim everything is going to be fine if we carry on with the current policies. They are simply not sustainable in even the medium term.
Most EU countries have low birthrates. Sooner or later, we'll exhaust the supply of people who want to come here.
And, as you point out, we're trading short term fiscal gains for long term pressure on public spending.
Wasn’t that the basis of Thatcherism. AKA “selling off the family silver”?
@faisalislam: Boris' 2014 book: "spectacular success" of Churchill's idea of 'EC, now EU" in delivering "peace & prosperity" https://t.co/MLaaB0nkHk
I think he wrote that book before the EU fomented a putch in the Ukraine to depose a democratically elected leader for not signing up to an EU association agreement which is rather relevant of the German treatment of the Czech government in 1938.
Mmmm.....That's a somewhat different slant to the one you put across a few minutes ago
The SNP had a chance to vote against, they chose to vote through the plan.
I am not sure how much clearer that could be
In the words of the bard: “I am in blood stepped in so far that should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go o’er,”
Edinburgh Council found themselves in a position where no matter how horrific the financial overruns cancelling contracts to which they were already committed looked even worse. I frankly don't think anyone comes out of the trams fiasco with clean hands or even much dignity but those who pushed it from the start bear the greater responsibility.
A decade ago, a demand number below 25GW was absolutely unheard of, and pretty much every day saw peak demand exceed 40GW. The National Grid forecast that by 2018, we'd see daily demand peaking in the 45GW range.
Yet right now, electricity demand is sub 25GW, and we've barely poked about 30GW in the last 24 hours.
The impact of energy efficiency measures - and the effect of higher electricity prices - has had a staggering effect of consumption.
I've been one of the biggest bears on electricity demand around, and I've been wildly over-optimistic.
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
Remain's problem is that only a minority think they'd be worse off, in the event of Brexit.
Then given BREXIT are way ahead on the issues of sovereignty and immigration why are LEAVE not very comfortably ahead in the polls?
A decade ago, a demand number below 25GW was absolutely unheard of, and pretty much every day saw peak demand exceed 40GW. The National Grid forecast that by 2018, we'd see daily demand peaking in the 45GW range.
Yet right now, electricity demand is sub 25GW, and we've barely poked about 30GW in the last 24 hours.
The impact of energy efficiency measures - and the effect of higher electricity prices - has had a staggering effect of consumption.
I've been one of the biggest bears on electricity demand around, and I've been wildly over-optimistic.
To add: there is basically no wind generating power right now, and yet the UK's coal stations are simply idled due to lack of demand.
A decade ago, a demand number below 25GW was absolutely unheard of, and pretty much every day saw peak demand exceed 40GW. The National Grid forecast that by 2018, we'd see daily demand peaking in the 45GW range.
Yet right now, electricity demand is sub 25GW, and we've barely poked about 30GW in the last 24 hours.
The impact of energy efficiency measures - and the effect of higher electricity prices - has had a staggering effect of consumption.
I've been one of the biggest bears on electricity demand around, and I've been wildly over-optimistic.
Is this not just a consequence of turning off most of our heavy industry?
I think he wrote that book before the EU fomented a putch in the Ukraine to depose a democratically elected leader for not signing up to an EU association agreement which is rather relevant of the German treatment of the Czech government in 1938. he decided OUT was his best shot at the leadership
@rowenamason: Andrea Leadsom says Mark Carney's warnings about Brexit "incredibly dangerous" and promotes instability, if worried shd have had quiet word
@RyanCoetzee: The Leave case on the economy seems to be that no one apart from them should be allowed to say anything about it. #Marr
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
Did you miss the poll of polls you deluded freak?
50/50
At what point will the flailing REMAINIACS admit that all is not going quite to plan?
Mmmm.....That's a somewhat different slant to the one you put across a few minutes ago
The SNP had a chance to vote against, they chose to vote through the plan.
I am not sure how much clearer that could be
In the words of the bard: “I am in blood stepped in so far that should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go o’er,”
Edinburgh Council found themselves in a position where no matter how horrific the financial overruns cancelling contracts to which they were already committed looked even worse. I frankly don't think anyone comes out of the trams fiasco with clean hands or even much dignity but those who pushed it from the start bear the greater responsibility.
The worst thing about the trams is that came in three parts a link to the east a link to North and Leith and finally the link to the west and the airport.
The east route was the one most needed, then the Leith link. The west line to the airport was unnecessary vanity project.
So of course as the tram project fell apart it was the airport link that was the only part that survived.
There is no doubt that high levels of working age immigration removing any shortage of labour (and indeed of significant wage increases) is a key plank of the Government's economic model. It therefore stands to reason that Brexit, combined with a much more restrictive immigration policy, is going to result in a reduction in projected GDP for UK plc.
Whether we will actually be worse off or whether a slightly smaller cake would simply get divided into fewer pieces is harder to say. It is possible that without this unlimited source of skilled labour serious underlying problems in our economy such as our very poor commitment to training, our extremely ordinary, bordering on incompetent, tertiary education systems and the lack of quality in our management would become more of an issue, indeed I think that is likely.
But these are problems that we need to address. Our current immigration policies are a Ponzi scheme by which we keep things going by making use of the current workforce to pay for ongoing liabilities. Those 900K immigrants from the EU who have made permanent homes here in the last 5 years will grow old, need pensions, healthcare, social care and sheltered housing too.
If we accept that the most densely populated part of Europe cannot simply keep importing more and more labour indefinitely without reaching an intolerable state of affairs with a much reduced quality of living there are a series of problems that we will need to address and there will be adjustment pains. Anyone who claims otherwise is being dishonest but so are those who claim everything is going to be fine if we carry on with the current policies. They are simply not sustainable in even the medium term.
Most EU countries have low birthrates. Sooner or later, we'll exhaust the supply of people who want to come here.
And, as you point out, we're trading short term fiscal gains for long term pressure on public spending.
Wasn’t that the basis of Thatcherism. AKA “selling off the family silver”?
No. The basis of Thatcherism was that publically owned industries would be less efficient than privately owned ones and that the latter would ultimately make better use of scarce resources to the betterment of all. With the possible exception of the railways, about which a significant number of people are remarkably delusional, I don't think anyone anywhere in the world now seriously disputes that proposition.
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
Remain's problem is that only a minority think they'd be worse off, in the event of Brexit.
And rather than changing their menu, we're getting triple servings of it. I'm honestly beginning to think that they simply don't understand what's driving Leave, why all their suits and braid aren't convincing - and wheeling out Johnny Foreigner dignitaries gets our backs up.
That it's cutting across Party lines is also getting confusing as Old Labour, Kippers, Wet/Dry Tories and even some LDs are arguing for many of the same things.
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
Remain's problem is that only a minority think they'd be worse off, in the event of Brexit.
Then given BREXIT are way ahead on the issues of sovereignty and immigration why are LEAVE not very comfortably ahead in the polls?
The online/phone polls seem to be exhibiting the same duality they had before the last GE. When they converge in the last week it'll be fascinating to see if any are brave enough to publish the actual results of their methodology where they contradict the group think.
I think he wrote that book before the EU fomented a putch in the Ukraine to depose a democratically elected leader for not signing up to an EU association agreement which is rather relevant of the German treatment of the Czech government in 1938. he decided OUT was his best shot at the leadership
Fixed it for you
A politician making a total volte-face in order to become Prime Minister ....
Mmmm.....That's a somewhat different slant to the one you put across a few minutes ago
The SNP had a chance to vote against, they chose to vote through the plan.
I am not sure how much clearer that could be
In the words of the bard: “I am in blood stepped in so far that should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go o’er,”
Edinburgh Council found themselves in a position where no matter how horrific the financial overruns cancelling contracts to which they were already committed looked even worse. I frankly don't think anyone comes out of the trams fiasco with clean hands or even much dignity but those who pushed it from the start bear the greater responsibility.
The worst thing about the trams is that came in three parts a link to the east a link to North and Leith and finally the link to the west and the airport.
The east route was the one most needed, then the Leith link. The west line to the airport was unnecessary vanity project.
So of course as the tram project fell apart it was the airport link that was the only part that survived.
Yep. The link to the airport should have been a spur on the existing railway line which runs right past the airport. It was and is completely idiotic.
Immigration of working age people is not a Ponzi scheme. The problem of an ageng population with increasing dependency ratio is most acute over the next 25 years as the baby-boomers of the 1945-65 years age. The drop in fertility rates in the late sixties to eighties means the age structure of the population then smooths out.
If you look at the ONS projections for the change in the age structure of the population between now and 2039, the change with the population to is substantially in the elderly and very elderly. The working age population hardly budges, and if you look at table 4 the number of children remains static too.
These are UK figures, but as most population growth is in England rather than in the other home nations we will see different effects in different parts of the country. Oversubscribed schools in Leicester will be balanced by schools closing in Wales through lack of pupils for example.
A decade ago, a demand number below 25GW was absolutely unheard of, and pretty much every day saw peak demand exceed 40GW. The National Grid forecast that by 2018, we'd see daily demand peaking in the 45GW range.
Yet right now, electricity demand is sub 25GW, and we've barely poked about 30GW in the last 24 hours.
The impact of energy efficiency measures - and the effect of higher electricity prices - has had a staggering effect of consumption.
I've been one of the biggest bears on electricity demand around, and I've been wildly over-optimistic.
But electricity is cheap as chips in historical terms. I pay 9.68p per unit at the moment inc VAT
Only between 1997 and 2005 were electricity prices cheaper inflation adjusted than they are now. Look at 1984. Equivalent 13.33 per unit and average wages since then have far outstripped inflation.
Boris' speech on EU expansion was quite brilliant. His allusion to Hitler, among others, was about Europe being under one government, not about the methods to get to that target.
Remain fanatics, like TSE, love making out that a Brexit will be the end of Britain. I believe it will be the beginning of the end of the EU.
True, his last para in his thread about the Tory Party could mean that he is not au fait with the Cameron led Remain campaign; however, he has egged this same campaign on from the start.
Labour launching £500k direct mail/social media campaign from Monday. Targeting jobs and the economy in safe Labour areas with a Ukip presence, according to Times.
It's interesting to see Brexiteers crowing that all of the predictions of economic gloom are not shifting the polls.
They are not disputing the facts, just revelling in perceived temporary advantage.
Of course, as with the Indyref, all of the predictions of economic hardship are based in hard fact. They they do or don't shift the vote is not their primary purpose
An informed electorate can make an informed choice, either way.
When the result doesn't meet their expectations, or pans out exactly as predicted, nobody can say "We did'nae ken"
Labour launching £500k direct mail/social media campaign from Monday. Targeting jobs and the economy in safe Labour areas with a Ukip presence, according to Times.
Boris' speech on EU expansion was quite brilliant. His allusion to Hitler, among others, was about Europe being under one government, not about the methods to get to that target.
Remain fanatics, like TSE, love making out that a Brexit will be the end of Britain. I believe it will be the beginning of the end of the EU.
True, his last para in his thread about the Tory Party could mean that he is not au fait with the Cameron led Remain campaign; however, he has egged this same campaign on from the start.
I have a vague memory of a poster being used in the French referendum on Maastricht which showed three united 'Europes' - one being Hitler's, another Napoleon's, and the third the EU. The first two were crossed out while the third had a tick next to it.
First casualty of the SNP's "triumph" of losing their majority - the repeal of:
“arguably the most authoritarian piece of legislation in modern times in Britain. That you can go to prison for five years for being offensive at a football match is insane.”
It's interesting to see Brexiteers crowing that all of the predictions of economic gloom are not shifting the polls.
They are not disputing the facts, just revelling in perceived temporary advantage.
Of course, as with the Indyref, all of the predictions of economic hardship are based in hard fact. They they do or don't shift the vote is not their primary purpose
An informed electorate can make an informed choice, either way.
When the result doesn't meet their expectations, or pans out exactly as predicted, nobody can say "We did'nae ken"
Predictions of economic doom are not facts, but rather hypotheses.
A decade ago, a demand number below 25GW was absolutely unheard of, and pretty much every day saw peak demand exceed 40GW. The National Grid forecast that by 2018, we'd see daily demand peaking in the 45GW range.
Yet right now, electricity demand is sub 25GW, and we've barely poked about 30GW in the last 24 hours.
The impact of energy efficiency measures - and the effect of higher electricity prices - has had a staggering effect of consumption.
I've been one of the biggest bears on electricity demand around, and I've been wildly over-optimistic.
To add: there is basically no wind generating power right now, and yet the UK's coal stations are simply idled due to lack of demand.
If only the grid might manage to harness the hot air and wind on PB they'd be free energy for all, which would clearly be a small recompense for the lack of free owls after Ed's failure at the general election.
Immigration of working age people is not a Ponzi scheme. The problem of an ageng population with increasing dependency ratio is most acute over the next 25 years as the baby-boomers of the 1945-65 years age. The drop in fertility rates in the late sixties to eighties means the age structure of the population then smooths out.
If you look at the ONS projections for the change in the age structure of the population between now and 2039, the change with the population to is substantially in the elderly and very elderly. The working age population hardly budges, and if you look at table 4 the number of children remains static too.
These are UK figures, but as most population growth is in England rather than in the other home nations we will see different effects in different parts of the country. Oversubscribed schools in Leicester will be balanced by schools closing in Wales through lack of pupils for example.
To date we have offset the increase in the number of retired and elderly with additional people of working age by immigration. But such a policy has many of the aspects of a Ponzi scheme to me: new entrants pay out the old provided there are enough new entrants to do so. Those figures project that by 2039 there will be another 10m people living in Britain, roughly another London. Do we really want to have policies that are going to add to that problem or policies that are going to reduce it?
"Labour supporters - vote Leave to get a Labour government in 2020".
OK, I will.
Tempting but I'll put country over party...
A noble choice. Although the Tory civil war seems more likely to be an extended and vicious one if remain win, and that also opens up a chance for labour.
"The Out side has taken such a pummelling on the economy that, if this were a boxing match, the referee would be stepping in to stop the fight. When anyone dares to express an opinion about the hazards of Brexit, the Outers now routinely wail that it is somehow “unfair” or “bullying” or even a “conspiracy”. That suggests that some of them wish that there really was a referee who could intervene to spare them any more punches."
Remain's problem is that only a minority think they'd be worse off, in the event of Brexit.
Then given BREXIT are way ahead on the issues of sovereignty and immigration why are LEAVE not very comfortably ahead in the polls?
Persuading people to break with the status quo is difficult, unless the status quo is very visibly collapsing.
There's also a big element of my enemy's enemy is my friend. With right wing voters so heavily in favour of Leave, left wing voters tak the opposite view.
No. Why? But, boy, do we need some polls - so much has happened (or rather given the appearance of having happened) and we need to know whether any of it has registered.
Then the panic (perhaps on both sides) can commence.
(Ahem, apart, that is, from the pert and peachy ARSE)
Comments
https://mobile.twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/731615208687435776/video/1
Reducing the number of immigrants from europe would have quite a few economic effects, some possibly beneficial such as easing pressure on housing, but others less so. The increase in population from young and fertile europeans offsets our ageing baby boomer population. Without them the dependency ratio becomes a lot worse means higher taxes/lower pensions/working longer for the working age population.
The problems for the new Conservative regime will be:
* it will be said that they ignored an endless litany of warnings
* the "it's a price worth paying" comments will be thrown back at them - it will be easy to argue that the Brexit Government knew there would be a recession and didn't care
The obvious defence would be:
* it's just the business cycle and it was going to happen anyway
* it would have been worse if we had voted Remain
Good luck with that.
I don't think Corbyn is a cast-iron get out of jail card for the Tories in such a case but he would still be an asset. The Tories probably can't drop far below ~310 seats (assuming no reduction) and remain in power though.
Of course, poor Tory polling would make Corbyn less likely to step down.
Tories voted against
If TSE is wrong and the price of leaving is a recession caused by EU policy then we are stuffed and can't do anything about it.
Turkey are threatening to unleash a new wave of immigrants on the continent before July if it's free movement claim for its citizens are not met.
Whether we have passport controls or not that would make very interesting headlines for both remain and leave just before the referendum.
Yes we are due a slow-down. Doubtful a recession though.
We missed the 1999/2000 dip and suffered in 2007/2008: Recovery has been slow since. We may get a quater of flat growth but that is the best straw you van cling to.
I'm sure we can do it in less.
Might need to find our Lee Kuan Yew..
The real solution (easy in theory, I warrant!) is to fund pensions on an ongoing basis. But unfortunately as they are currently paid out of taxation this will be very expensive over a 30 years+ basis...
Russia has always had a fear of invasion and World War 2 has left them almost paranoid about it (given they lost about 40 million citizens hardly surprising)
The EU and USA set out to destablise the previous pro russian regime and replace it with one friendly to them. That the previous regime wasn't very nice is irrelevant, they were elected. The new regime isn't very nice either and was installed in a Putsch. The EU has form on this - look at the defenestration of elected governments in Greece and Italy.
A close relative who lived through WW2 said that she was voting out a while back because otherwise we will be run by Germany. Boris has, again, cut through the crap and hit the nail on the head.
German expansionism started centuries before Hitler, thats why Poland was partitioned in 1772 and how Germany (then called Prussia) conquered the whole of the Baltic coast as far as Memel. Boris is right to say that the EU is becoming the continuation of centuries old German foreign policy by other means.
The more sensible amongst us will, whichever way it goes, try to make it work for future generations whatever our personal preferences happen to be. That's democracy and how it should be when the people have spoken.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
In a two horse race, Remain are comfortable favourites AT THE MOMENT.
Considering that, won't your policy simply transfer our problems to their former countries?
A disgraceful and immoral beggar-thy-neighbour policy from you.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-27159614
The entire project was going to be scrapped by the SNP when the Nationalists formed their first minority government at Holyrood in 2007, only for the decision to be overturned by the will of the other parties in the Scottish Parliament.
http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/12779952.Tram_scheme_goes_ahead_after_SNP_defeat/
Labour, LibDems, Conservatives and Greens allied to keep the trams project alive, with Wendy Alexander, Labour's transport spokeswoman, alleging SNP moves to scrap the trams and the Edinburgh Airport Rail Link (Earl) "oozed party prejudice and geographic grudge".
Maybe that Leave have no agreed common ground on what Life Outside the EU looks like?
The paucity of argument leaves both sides with just shit-flinging.
The SNP group on Edinburgh council, which campaigned vigorously under Alex Salmond against the project from its inception on cost grounds, swung behind the proposal after initially indicating it would vote it down.
Actually, if we leave, then without free movement how will we get rid of our malcontents?
Whether we will actually be worse off or whether a slightly smaller cake would simply get divided into fewer pieces is harder to say. It is possible that without this unlimited source of skilled labour serious underlying problems in our economy such as our very poor commitment to training, our extremely ordinary, bordering on incompetent, tertiary education systems and the lack of quality in our management would become more of an issue, indeed I think that is likely.
But these are problems that we need to address. Our current immigration policies are a Ponzi scheme by which we keep things going by making use of the current workforce to pay for ongoing liabilities. Those 900K immigrants from the EU who have made permanent homes here in the last 5 years will grow old, need pensions, healthcare, social care and sheltered housing too.
If we accept that the most densely populated part of Europe cannot simply keep importing more and more labour indefinitely without reaching an intolerable state of affairs with a much reduced quality of living there are a series of problems that we will need to address and there will be adjustment pains. Anyone who claims otherwise is being dishonest but so are those who claim everything is going to be fine if we carry on with the current policies. They are simply not sustainable in even the medium term.
"Labour supporters - vote Leave to get a Labour government in 2020".
OK, I will.
An election on steroids, the Canadians call it. Not surprising that drug would cause these effects.
Personally, I think it is good for Leave that Remain has sunk to this level, as the credibility of the PM and Chancellor was their best asset by far.
Let's review
When I posted this How did you reply? One of us was right, and you were a turnip.
I am not sure how much clearer that could be
Even though I think Leaving would not be in UK’s best interests.
If you hang about when s**t is flying, some of it sticks to you!
And, as you point out, we're trading short term fiscal gains for long term pressure on public spending.
It's not an edifying sight, but it may be effective.
That’s not saying much!
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/focus/trumpism-is-defined-as-secure-borders-and-economic-nationalism-lfrj0f6rq
Edinburgh Council found themselves in a position where no matter how horrific the financial overruns cancelling contracts to which they were already committed looked even worse. I frankly don't think anyone comes out of the trams fiasco with clean hands or even much dignity but those who pushed it from the start bear the greater responsibility.
A decade ago, a demand number below 25GW was absolutely unheard of, and pretty much every day saw peak demand exceed 40GW. The National Grid forecast that by 2018, we'd see daily demand peaking in the 45GW range.
Yet right now, electricity demand is sub 25GW, and we've barely poked about 30GW in the last 24 hours.
The impact of energy efficiency measures - and the effect of higher electricity prices - has had a staggering effect of consumption.
I've been one of the biggest bears on electricity demand around, and I've been wildly over-optimistic.
@RyanCoetzee: The Leave case on the economy seems to be that no one apart from them should be allowed to say anything about it. #Marr
The east route was the one most needed, then the Leith link. The west line to the airport was unnecessary vanity project.
So of course as the tram project fell apart it was the airport link that was the only part that survived.
Edit. Except maybe Corbyn.
That it's cutting across Party lines is also getting confusing as Old Labour, Kippers, Wet/Dry Tories and even some LDs are arguing for many of the same things.
Shirley Shum Mishtake ....
Immigration of working age people is not a Ponzi scheme. The problem of an ageng population with increasing dependency ratio is most acute over the next 25 years as the baby-boomers of the 1945-65 years age. The drop in fertility rates in the late sixties to eighties means the age structure of the population then smooths out.
If you look at the ONS projections for the change in the age structure of the population between now and 2039, the change with the population to is substantially in the elderly and very elderly. The working age population hardly budges, and if you look at table 4 the number of children remains static too.
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/national-population-projections/2014-based-projections/stb-npp-2014-based-projections.html#tab-Changing-age-structure
These are UK figures, but as most population growth is in England rather than in the other home nations we will see different effects in different parts of the country. Oversubscribed schools in Leicester will be balanced by schools closing in Wales through lack of pupils for example.
Only between 1997 and 2005 were electricity prices cheaper inflation adjusted than they are now. Look at 1984. Equivalent 13.33 per unit and average wages since then have far outstripped inflation.
Year, Actual , Equiv in 2013 prices (bank of England inflation calculator)
1984, 4.90, 13.33,
1985 , 5.07 , 13.00,
1986 , 5.36, 13.30,
1987 , 5.09 , 12.12,
1988 , 5.70 , 12.94,
1989 , 6.04 , 12.72,
1990 , 6.59 , 12.68,
1991 , 7.33 , 13.32,
1992 , 7.49 , 13.12,
1993 , 7.27 , 12.54,
1994 , 7.17 , 12.07,
1995 , 7.00 , 11.39,
1996 , 6.72 , 10.68,
1997 , 6.16 , 9.49,
1998 , 6.04 , 9.00,
2000, 5.20 , 7.41,
2001 , 4.63 , 6.48,
2003 , 5.91 , 7.91,
2004 , 6.14 , 7.98,
2005 , 6.14 , 7.76,
2006 , 8.24 , 10.09,
2007 , 8.44 , 9.91,
2008, 11.51, 13.00,
2009 , 12.58, 14.29,
2013, 10.49, 10.49,
Remain fanatics, like TSE, love making out that a Brexit will be the end of Britain. I believe it will be the beginning of the end of the EU.
True, his last para in his thread about the Tory Party could mean that he is not au fait with the Cameron led Remain campaign; however, he has egged this same campaign on from the start.
They are not disputing the facts, just revelling in perceived temporary advantage.
Of course, as with the Indyref, all of the predictions of economic hardship are based in hard fact. They they do or don't shift the vote is not their primary purpose
An informed electorate can make an informed choice, either way.
When the result doesn't meet their expectations, or pans out exactly as predicted, nobody can say "We did'nae ken"
All I have seen are predictions of doom from the serially wrong...
There's also a big element of my enemy's enemy is my friend. With right wing voters so heavily in favour of Leave, left wing voters tak the opposite view.
Then the panic (perhaps on both sides) can commence.
(Ahem, apart, that is, from the pert and peachy ARSE)