politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Evening round up of the main political betting markets

System · May 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Evening round up of the main political betting markets

politicalbetting.com is proudly powered by WordPress
with "Neat!" theme. Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS).

Read the full story here

Philip_Thompson · May 2016

First like Remain.

hunchman · May 2016

Second like remain!

Philip_Thompson · May 2016

LOL hunchman.

FPT:

David_Evershed said:

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. 86, who's calling for Carney to be sacked?

[I suspect rather more want Osborne out].

As an aside, I did raise the point earlier that it seems peculiar the Bank of England seems more agitated about the UK leaving a political/trading bloc than it did about the UK splitting up.
The Moggster for one. Lamont isn't impressed with the Governor's intervention either. The one silver lining to staying in the EU is that we can throw stones at Osborne and Carney when we hit a big recession in the next 18 months.

Also, note Carney talking about a technical recession. He's a disgrace.
Why is that disgraceful? I would find it disgraceful if he DID NOT mean a technical recession but used the term anyway.

It is disgraceful because it is mere speculation and also it is in the midst of a political election when purdah is supposed to apply.

His job description specifically includes providing such speculation as to the risks of the economy so that point is moot.

Purdah is perhaps more valid. Not sure if purdah should apply here though (I thought from memory the purdah period hasn't started yet and furthermore it applies to the government and civil service, not sure it extends to the independent BoE.

hunchman · May 2016

Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.

Philip_Thompson · May 2016

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.

Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.

Alistair · May 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.

Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.

Luckyguy1983 · May 2016

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.
Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.

What if Don't Know means Won't Vote? It seems the fairest assumption.

Tim_B · May 2016

The more I see Donald Trump's son Eric on TV, the more convinced I am by his hair that he is Judge Napolitano's love child.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2016

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.
Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.
What if Don't Know means Won't Vote? It seems the fairest assumption.

Don't know means don't know but most will vote - I expect turnout will be 65% +

Alistair · May 2016

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.
Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.
What if Don't Know means Won't Vote? It seems the fairest assumption.

Then it comes down to turnout and no one knows what that will be

In my view on turnout

55% Leave win
65% Remain win
75% Too close to call
85% Remain win

BigRich · May 2016

So if Clinton is 69% and Trump 25% who is the other 6%?

Gary Johnson the presumptive Libertarian Candadit?

Tim_B · May 2016

BigRich said:
So if Clinton is 69% and Trump 25% who is the other 6%?

Gary Johnson the presumptive Libertarian Candadit?

Jim Gilmore!

Alistair · May 2016

BigRich said:
So if Clinton is 69% and Trump 25% who is the other 6%?

Gary Johnson the presumptive Libertarian Candadit?

Sanders

Pulpstar · May 2016

Alistair said:

BigRich said:
So if Clinton is 69% and Trump 25% who is the other 6%?

Gary Johnson the presumptive Libertarian Candadit?
Sanders

Max lay.

Polruan · May 2016

FPT

RobD said:

Polruan said:

No, I was saying that it would be difficult for the candidate/agent to claim that they didn't know that the activists were there or didn't know what they were doing in that situation, not that being photographed together is sufficient to be treated as local campaigning - obviously there's more to it than that. Broadly if you go door knocking and say you're there on behalf of the candidate, you're on the "local" side of the line; if you say how great the Conservatives are and by the way your candidate is a decent chap, you might be closer to the right side.

Having a script that introduces you on behalf of the candidate would be distinctly unhelpful in establishing a "national" fact pattern.

Leaders etc visiting is seen as "national" because they continue to attract national coverage (and, in the end, they have to spend the campaign somewhere).
Has any evidence of the script been released?

No idea, I was giving an example of how the relevant law works.

...having googled "channel 4 election conservative script" then yes, it looks like something purporting to be evidence has been released. I have no view on its authenticity or what it would prove if authentic.

I don't know how widespread the use of similar tactics is. I get the impression that the Tories had a lot more money than other parties and a hugely effective marginal-target operation which may mean they behaved in different and "innovative" ways, but it may be that everyone was doing the same as one another.

HYUFD · May 2016

Oregon Democrats Fox

Clinton 48 Sanders 33

Clinton 43 Sanders 32
http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/

Louisiana KMC Analytics

Trump 52 Clinton 36

Trump 55 Sanders 32
http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LA-Presidential-Executive-Summary.pdf

MikeSmithson · May 2016

Alistair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.
Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.
What if Don't Know means Won't Vote? It seems the fairest assumption.
Then it comes down to turnout and no one knows what that will be

In my view on turnout

55% Leave win
65% Remain win
75% Too close to call
85% Remain win

My reading's the opposite. A low turnout will help IN more than out. Forget self-certified certainty data and look at the demographic segments most likely to turn out in elections & IN has the edge.

HYUFD · May 2016

Senate in Brazil votes to impeach Rousseff, VP Tenner takes over for now
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-36279937

HYUFD · May 2016

MikeSmithson said:

Alistair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.
Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.
What if Don't Know means Won't Vote? It seems the fairest assumption.
Then it comes down to turnout and no one knows what that will be

In my view on turnout

55% Leave win
65% Remain win
75% Too close to call
85% Remain win
My reading's the opposite. A low turnout will help IN more than out. Forget self-certified certainty data and look at the demographic segments most likely to turn out in elections & IN has the edge.

The voters who turn out most are the old and the middle classes, the former back Leave, the latter Remain so I don't think turn out will matter as much as at the general election or indyref when both groups backed the Tories and No respectively

chestnut · May 2016

Going for a straightforward 'DE's don't vote' segment, for example, is fraught with risk.

The group breaks down into two distinct clusters.

The first is students, private tenants, the economically inactive due to illness and jobseekers. These are young or working age. They are Labour. They are Remain.

The second is pensioners, outright homeowners, homemakers. They are middle aged or elderly. They are Tory or UKIP. They are Leave.

Which ones are more likely to vote?

It's the same with online/phone polls. They are not uniform in their quality.

Some internet pollsters are accurate. Some are garbage. The same applies with telephones.

foxinsoxuk · May 2016

MikeSmithson said:

Alistair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.
Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.
What if Don't Know means Won't Vote? It seems the fairest assumption.
Then it comes down to turnout and no one knows what that will be

In my view on turnout

55% Leave win
65% Remain win
75% Too close to call
85% Remain win
My reading's the opposite. A low turnout will help IN more than out. Forget self-certified certainty data and look at the demographic segments most likely to turn out in elections & IN has the edge.

I think turnout will only have a fairly marginal effect, with SE class balancing out age as a factor.

It could go either way, but not by much and it hasn't had a big effect on my forecast.

Pulpstar · May 2016

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.

It'll turn into a ban from places like Pakistan, Iran, other majority muslim countries associated with terrorism.

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2016

23rd like Burnley 16/17

...
...

hang on there's a problem with that.

oh well, in the spirit of this Brexit campaign, who needs facts.

Tim_B · May 2016

Pulpstar said:

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.
It'll turn into a ban from places like Pakistan, Iran, other majority muslim countries associated with terrorism.

It will turn into undocumented persons (mass migrants from Syria, Pak, Iran etc) plus a few other considerations. To be fair to the man he has alluded to this and qualified his original statement several times on the road, but you have to look pretty hard to find it.

Remember the 'total ban' was in fact a temporary ban 'until we find out what the hell is going on', meaning that undocumented plus those not on any databases would be barred from entry to the US.

IT has proved to be very popular. Unfortunately it's unconstitutional to discriminate on grounds of religion, so it will have to be re-written if it goes ahead.

Alistair · May 2016

MikeSmithson said:

Alistair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.
Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.
What if Don't Know means Won't Vote? It seems the fairest assumption.
Then it comes down to turnout and no one knows what that will be

In my view on turnout

55% Leave win
65% Remain win
75% Too close to call
85% Remain win
My reading's the opposite. A low turnout will help IN more than out. Forget self-certified certainty data and look at the demographic segments most likely to turn out in elections & IN has the edge.

I'm grading 65% as a low turnout, 55% is extremely low so I don't think we are far apart in thinking.

Casino_Royale · May 2016

Philip_Thompson said:
First like Remain.

Eh? Where's yer optimism!

DavidL · May 2016

On those odds trump for republican nominee looks low. A 4% chance of a serious illness before the convention even at his age looks way too high. Clinton at 69% looks way too high as well. While she is rightly favourite Trump continues to be underestimated despite all he has achieved. But for me Leave looks the best value of all. Still odds against but much closer than that and likely to get closer.

GIN1138 · May 2016

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.

I tipped him, on here, at the start of 2015 and everybody thought I was crazy...

The_Taxman · May 2016

GIN1138 said:

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.
I tipped him, on here, at the start of 2015 and everybody thought I was crazy...

I do worry about the increasing chance of Trump winning the Presidency.

A scenario such as a US aircraft carrier in the Baltic is accidently hit by a Russian jet that was attempting a barrel roll. Maybe like in the fictional film Top Gun the navigator is taking a picture of the US vessel and they get too close. A tactical nuclear weapon carried by the Russian jet explodes in the Impact.

The point being a valuable US military asset is heavily damaged or more likely destroyed. A standoff ensues and we have a newly and untested President Trump, who has made bellicose rhetoric in relation to international relations poised on the nuclear button against an equally belligerent President Putin who will not accept blame. Neither will back down....................

DavidL · May 2016

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.
It'll turn into a ban from places like Pakistan, Iran, other majority muslim countries associated with terrorism.
Brief reminder: I met a very smart, funny, acute, elderly American billionairess when i was in Kenya looking at THE THREE LAST NORTHERN WHITE RHINOS ON EARTH, last month.

She'd been in the safari camp for a month, spending her money. She told me she was Trump's next door neighbour.

Her verdict on the Donald? "He's very intelligent, and an excellent delegator".

She wasn't trying to convince me of his politics, she was just stating it as bald fact. Interesting.

I think President Trump will be a surprise and a disappointment all at once. Those who are expecting disaster will be pleasantly surprised. Those expecting radical change will be seriously disappointed about how much the new boss is like the old boss.

Tim_B · May 2016

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.
It'll turn into a ban from places like Pakistan, Iran, other majority muslim countries associated with terrorism.
She told me she was Trump's next door neighbour.

Her verdict on the Donald? "He's very intelligent, and an excellent delegator".

She wasn't trying to convince me of his politics, she was just stating it as bald fact. Interesting.

That's pretty much the accepted view of Trump, except from political extremists who think he's way down the food chain. He graduated with a BSC (Econ) from the Wharton School at Penn, so that alone tells you he's very intelligent (Wharton is very hard to get into and is very prestigious).

He has built a very successful company, which you can't do without hiring good people and delegating to them.

Don't let his schtick on the campaign trail fool you - he is a smart cookie.

Just because he's smart and a good delegator isn't enough to make one vote for him however.

HYUFD · May 2016

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.

He has a chance, after 8 years in opposition the GOP ought to be favourites to win, but he has not rowed back completely on his Muslim ban, it will likely just be temporary and the female and Hispanic vote will probably help Hillary over the line in the end

FrankBooth · May 2016

SeanT - Will Trump's supporters really not mind if he starts back-tracking or will they think he's selling out and a phoney? It's hard to say but I wonder if they ever really believed he would do those kind of things anyway. Perhaps they know in their heart of hearts it'll never happen but they like Trump's instincts and think it bodes well for what he'd do as commander in chief.

peter_from_putney · May 2016

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.

The big question from a betting point of view is .... does Trump have at least a 28% chance of winning, which is what his odds of 5/2 (or 3.5 decimal) imply?

MTimT · May 2016

peter_from_putney said:

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.
The big question from a betting point of view is .... does Trump have at least a 28% chance of winning, which is what his odds of 5/2 (or 3.5 decimal) imply?

From a non-bettor's point of view, I would think his chances are better than 50% of winning the Presidency.

Hillary has an as-yet undiscussed disadvantage against Trump in a head-to-head. Unless she brings it to the knife fight he will make it, she will look tired and washed up in comparison. If she does bring it, she will sound like a shrill harpy, further damaging her already damaged image. Bringing it to the gutter is a win-win for Trump.

Tim_B · May 2016

SeanT said:

The_Taxman said:

GIN1138 said:

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.
I tipped him, on here, at the start of 2015 and everybody thought I was crazy...
I do worry about the increasing chance of Trump winning the Presidency.

A scenario such as a US aircraft carrier in the Baltic is accidently hit by a Russian jet that was attempting a barrel roll. Maybe like in the fictional film Top Gun the navigator is taking a picture of the US vessel and they get too close. A tactical nuclear weapon carried by the Russian jet explodes in the Impact.

The point being a valuable US military asset is heavily damaged or more likely destroyed. A standoff ensues and we have a newly and untested President Trump, who has made bellicose rhetoric in relation to international relations poised on the nuclear button against an equally belligerent President Putin who will not accept blame. Neither will back down....................

No. The point you're missing is that Trump is perfectly sane, and doesn't mean half the bullshit he's said, he just realised - as a smart guy - that there was a massive gap on the right of the party (and the country) for a non-Establishment figure who looked like he was Sticking It To The Man. An American Farage, with more resources and probably more self awareness.

So he neatly filled the gap.

Now he's got the Nom he will backpedal on the nuttiness, to give himself a chance of winning the Prez. If he does win, he will govern like a rightwing version of Bill Clinton. A New York liberal capitalist with a side dish of extremely mild American Putinism.

He'll also be quite isolationist.

Unless Turnberry becomes the 51st state

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2016

There's only one thing to have on the in office when working on a thursday night in may...

hoorar for youtube.

GIN1138 · May 2016

SeanT said:

The_Taxman said:

GIN1138 said:

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.
I tipped him, on here, at the start of 2015 and everybody thought I was crazy...
I do worry about the increasing chance of Trump winning the Presidency.

A scenario such as a US aircraft carrier in the Baltic is accidently hit by a Russian jet that was attempting a barrel roll. Maybe like in the fictional film Top Gun the navigator is taking a picture of the US vessel and they get too close. A tactical nuclear weapon carried by the Russian jet explodes in the Impact.

The point being a valuable US military asset is heavily damaged or more likely destroyed. A standoff ensues and we have a newly and untested President Trump, who has made bellicose rhetoric in relation to international relations poised on the nuclear button against an equally belligerent President Putin who will not accept blame. Neither will back down....................

No. The point you're missing is that Trump is perfectly sane, and doesn't mean half the bullshit he's said, he just realised - as a smart guy - that there was a massive gap on the right of the party (and the country) for a non-Establishment figure who looked like he was Sticking It To The Man. An American Farage, with more resources and probably more self awareness.

So he neatly filled the gap.

Now he's got the Nom he will backpedal on the nuttiness, to give himself a chance of winning the Prez. If he does win, he will govern like a rightwing version of Bill Clinton. A New York liberal capitalist with a side dish of extremely mild American Putinism.

He'll also be quite isolationist.

Any pics of PM Boris and POTUS Donald will be amazing... Who will come away with the most extraordinary hair out of that pair?

MTimT · May 2016

SeanT said:

The_Taxman said:

GIN1138 said:

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.
I tipped him, on here, at the start of 2015 and everybody thought I was crazy...
I do worry about the increasing chance of Trump winning the Presidency.

A scenario such as a US aircraft carrier in the Baltic is accidently hit by a Russian jet that was attempting a barrel roll. Maybe like in the fictional film Top Gun the navigator is taking a picture of the US vessel and they get too close. A tactical nuclear weapon carried by the Russian jet explodes in the Impact.

The point being a valuable US military asset is heavily damaged or more likely destroyed. A standoff ensues and we have a newly and untested President Trump, who has made bellicose rhetoric in relation to international relations poised on the nuclear button against an equally belligerent President Putin who will not accept blame. Neither will back down....................

No. The point you're missing is that Trump is perfectly sane, and doesn't mean half the bullshit he's said, he just realised - as a smart guy - that there was a massive gap on the right of the party (and the country) for a non-Establishment figure who looked like he was Sticking It To The Man. An American Farage, with more resources and probably more self awareness.

So he neatly filled the gap.

Now he's got the Nom he will backpedal on the nuttiness, to give himself a chance of winning the Prez. If he does win, he will govern like a rightwing version of Bill Clinton. A New York liberal capitalist with a side dish of extremely mild American Putinism.

He'll also be quite isolationist.

And pro-Brexit

Jonathan · May 2016

Surely Trump is value.

Scott_P · May 2016

@LadPolitics: #StoneRoses now 50/1 to win 2016 Mercury Music Prize. They were 20/1 before we heard the new single. https://t.co/C0Etki1fi2

Tim_B · May 2016

It's quite interesting - much as Obama took a medium left Democratic Party and pulled it way left, so under Trump the Republicans are transitioning from a conservative party to a populist party.

On some policy fronts Trump is to the left of Clinton, which makes for a fasinating prospect once it all shakes out.

Scott_P · May 2016

@bpolitics: In Cannes, George Clooney vows Donald Trump won't be president https://t.co/JhzrdjRHl1 https://t.co/yvppAV0ieV

peter_from_putney · May 2016

SeanT said:

peter_from_putney said:

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.
The big question from a betting point of view is .... does Trump have at least a 28% chance of winning, which is what his odds of 5/2 (or 3.5 decimal) imply?
I think so, but I'm crap at betting (except with my fellow pb-ers, where my record is near flawless).

It's a two horse race. The Dems have been in power for ages. Hillary is a rather poor, ageing candidate with a lot of dodgy history. And then there's Bill. And do the Yanks REALLY want another Clinton???

And the Donald is smart.

I reckon he should be nearer 2/1.

33.3%

I'm inclined to agree. Yet just two weeks ago you could back him to become the next POTUS at odds of more than 5/1, that's twice the odds currently available. Thanks to PB's best tipsters I got on .... it's what this site is intended to be for and indeed is best at.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2016

Scott_P said:
@LadPolitics: #StoneRoses now 50/1 to win 2016 Mercury Music Prize. They were 20/1 before we heard the new single. https://t.co/C0Etki1fi2

How are they still alive? The Grim Reaper is busy knocking off every celeb under the sun and somehow the likes of the Stone Roses appear to have pickled themselves into living forever.

I know there is a big festival on the Cochella site this autumn. The Who, the Rolling Stones, Bob Dylan and Paul McCartney, Neil Young and Pink Floyd's Roger Waters. It will be like a festival of the zombie apocalypse.

PeterC · May 2016

Alistair said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alistair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.
Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.
What if Don't Know means Won't Vote? It seems the fairest assumption.
Then it comes down to turnout and no one knows what that will be

In my view on turnout

55% Leave win
65% Remain win
75% Too close to call
85% Remain win
My reading's the opposite. A low turnout will help IN more than out. Forget self-certified certainty data and look at the demographic segments most likely to turn out in elections & IN has the edge.
I'm grading 65% as a low turnout, 55% is extremely low so I don't think we are far apart in thinking.

Why is 65% a low turnout? It's general election level these days. The 1975 referendum had a turnout some 8 points below the October 1974 GE.

FrankBooth · May 2016

Anecdote alert. I was at a small social gathering with some people - not ones I know very well but I would argue largely middle class liberals - and somehow the conversation turned to politics. Obviously the shenanigans in the Welsh Assembly were amusing/embarrassing however you see it and mention of Ukip came up. Interestingly there was no sneering at Ukip voters, seeing it (rightly or wrongly) primarily as a protest vote and one or two people thought it might not be a bad thing for them to have members in Cardiff so people will see what they're really like. One lady (undoubtedly the most working class) expressed support for Brexit having changed her mind because of Cameron's fear-mongering - World War 3 wtf! Nobody else expressed a view on the referendum but there was bemusement at the whole circus of TV debates and legal action. I'm guessing most of the people there would be for remain but since they really ought to be the core vote, the lack of enthusiasm was disturbing. It doesn't fill me with optimism.

The Corbyn supporter was really rather annoyed at people judging him for not being Prime-ministerial and instead focused on his principles/sincerity. Curiously whilst disdaining Cameron she expressed admiration for Gove, who she thought would wipe the floor with Dave in a debate and even had a good word for Boris' intellectual credentials, suggesting that usual political tribalism is suspended.

TCPoliticalBetting · May 2016

chestnut said:
Going for a straightforward 'DE's don't vote' segment, for example, is fraught with risk.
The group breaks down into two distinct clusters.
The first is students, private tenants, the economically inactive due to illness and jobseekers. These are young or working age. They are Labour. They are Remain.
The second is pensioners, outright homeowners, homemakers. They are middle aged or elderly. They are Tory or UKIP. They are Leave.
Which ones are more likely to vote?
It's the same with online/phone polls. They are not uniform in their quality.
Some internet pollsters are accurate. Some are garbage. The same applies with telephones.

A lot of sense there.

FeersumEnjineeya · May 2016

MTimT said:

SeanT said:

The_Taxman said:

GIN1138 said:

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.
I tipped him, on here, at the start of 2015 and everybody thought I was crazy...
I do worry about the increasing chance of Trump winning the Presidency.

A scenario such as a US aircraft carrier in the Baltic is accidently hit by a Russian jet that was attempting a barrel roll. Maybe like in the fictional film Top Gun the navigator is taking a picture of the US vessel and they get too close. A tactical nuclear weapon carried by the Russian jet explodes in the Impact.

The point being a valuable US military asset is heavily damaged or more likely destroyed. A standoff ensues and we have a newly and untested President Trump, who has made bellicose rhetoric in relation to international relations poised on the nuclear button against an equally belligerent President Putin who will not accept blame. Neither will back down....................

No. The point you're missing is that Trump is perfectly sane, and doesn't mean half the bullshit he's said, he just realised - as a smart guy - that there was a massive gap on the right of the party (and the country) for a non-Establishment figure who looked like he was Sticking It To The Man. An American Farage, with more resources and probably more self awareness.

So he neatly filled the gap.

Now he's got the Nom he will backpedal on the nuttiness, to give himself a chance of winning the Prez. If he does win, he will govern like a rightwing version of Bill Clinton. A New York liberal capitalist with a side dish of extremely mild American Putinism.

He'll also be quite isolationist.
And pro-Brexit

This week. Next week? Who knows?

williamglenn · May 2016

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:
@bpolitics: In Cannes, George Clooney vows Donald Trump won't be president https://t.co/JhzrdjRHl1 https://t.co/yvppAV0ieV
Well that's probably another million votes for The Donald, if I'm judging the American mood correctly.

Clooney has certainly misjudged it if he thinks rejection of 'fear' will be why Trump loses. Trump will win on hope and 'morning in America'. As you said below he's far smarter than his opponents admit.

How do you campaign against this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PX5YP0Nn-dU

HYUFD · May 2016

SeanT said:

peter_from_putney said:

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.
The big question from a betting point of view is .... does Trump have at least a 28% chance of winning, which is what his odds of 5/2 (or 3.5 decimal) imply?
I think so, but I'm crap at betting (except with my fellow pb-ers, where my record is near flawless).

It's a two horse race. The Dems have been in power for ages. Hillary is a rather poor, ageing candidate with a lot of dodgy history. And then there's Bill. And do the Yanks REALLY want another Clinton???

And the Donald is smart.

I reckon he should be nearer 2/1.

33.3%

Bill Clinton is the most popular ex president alive, he is Hillary's best asset

FrancisUrquhart · May 2016

An investigation has found no evidence a case against a brothel madam was dropped because she threatened to make allegations against Sir Edward Heath.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-36273388

The plod that stood outside his home making statements have some questions to answer me thinks.

peter_from_putney · May 2016

Scott_P said:
@bpolitics: In Cannes, George Clooney vows Donald Trump won't be president https://t.co/JhzrdjRHl1 https://t.co/yvppAV0ieV

Who on God's earth would take the slightest notice of what George Clooney thinks? I mean he's just an actor of sorts.

HYUFD · May 2016

chestnut said:
Going for a straightforward 'DE's don't vote' segment, for example, is fraught with risk.

The group breaks down into two distinct clusters.

The first is students, private tenants, the economically inactive due to illness and jobseekers. These are young or working age. They are Labour. They are Remain.

The second is pensioners, outright homeowners, homemakers. They are middle aged or elderly. They are Tory or UKIP. They are Leave.

Which ones are more likely to vote?

It's the same with online/phone polls. They are not uniform in their quality.

Some internet pollsters are accurate. Some are garbage. The same applies with telephones.

That misreads the point, working class UKIP voters do not vote as often as they say they will to pollsters, as the general and local elections proved so you can say some working class Leavers will be less likely to vote

nunu · May 2016

Just donated £200 to Leave. A drop in the ocean of the government machine and propaganda (WAR!!!!) but atleast I can look back and say I tried.

The remain campaign have already overspent the spending limits (£9M) but this was never going to be a fair fight......

HYUFD · May 2016

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:
@bpolitics: In Cannes, George Clooney vows Donald Trump won't be president https://t.co/JhzrdjRHl1 https://t.co/yvppAV0ieV
Well that's probably another million votes for The Donald, if I'm judging the American mood correctly.
Clooney has certainly misjudged it if he thinks rejection of 'fear' will be why Trump loses. Trump will win on hope and 'morning in America'. As you said below he's far smarter than his opponents admit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PX5YP0Nn-dU

Reagan won on hope and optimism, Trump is running largely on fear, fear of migrants, fear of China, fear of the establishment and fear of terrorism, it might win but it is not really a message of optimism!

Jonathan · May 2016

peter_from_putney said:

Scott_P said:
@bpolitics: In Cannes, George Clooney vows Donald Trump won't be president https://t.co/JhzrdjRHl1 https://t.co/yvppAV0ieV
Who on God's earth would take the slightest notice of what George Clooney thinks? I mean he's just an actor of sorts.

Whereas Trump is a reality TV star.

Scott_P · May 2016

@faisalislam: Carney is kryptonite for Leave campaign - Comres poll says most important view: 61% - double as important as Obama https://t.co/4y30uHlFvQ

williamglenn · May 2016

HYUFD said:
Reagan won on hope and optimism, Trump is running largely on fear, fear of migrants, fear of the establishment and fear of terrorism, it might win but it is not really a message of optimism!

You think that but his supporters hear 'Make America Great Again'. Anyone who wants to defeat Trump needs to undermine this message, not accuse him of fear-mongering.

Watch the video. It's pretty powerful propaganda.

NickPalmer · May 2016

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.

I think that's all correct. But he's certainly shown willingness to adopt extreme positions that he apparently doesn't believe in (because he reverses them) in order to gain support. That makes him a risky gamble for America. He might win, but nobody can really say with confidence what he'd be like.

MP_SE · May 2016

nunu said:
Just donated £200 to Leave. A drop in the ocean of the government machine and propaganda (WAR!!!!) but atleast I can look back and say I tried.

The remain campaign have already overspent the spending limits (£9M) but this was never going to be a fair fight......

Good man/woman.

I am not at all impressed with Vote Leave, however, have been delivering leaflets and will get involved in some door to door canvassing as I could not forgive myself if it is close.

Toms · May 2016

peter_from_putney said:

Scott_P said:
@bpolitics: In Cannes, George Clooney vows Donald Trump won't be president https://t.co/JhzrdjRHl1 https://t.co/yvppAV0ieV
Who on God's earth would take the slightest notice of what George Clooney thinks? I mean he's just an actor of sorts.

Of course you're right. The same comment applies to the queen and innumerable others.
Our education system ought, I think, concentrate on developing literacy, numeracy & scepticism. I fear it it falls down on the last of these.

HYUFD · May 2016

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:
Reagan won on hope and optimism, Trump is running largely on fear, fear of migrants, fear of the establishment and fear of terrorism, it might win but it is not really a message of optimism!
You think that but his supporters hear 'Make America Great Again'. Anyone who wants to defeat Trump needs to undermine this message, not accuse him of fear-mongering.

Watch the video. It's pretty powerful propaganda.

You do not undermine Trump by constantly reiterating his best campaign slogan (which in any case is a pale copy of Reagan's 'morning in America' and 'shining city on a hill) you win on showing how he wants to shut the border with Mexico, attack migrants (something Reagan never did), create a damaging trade war with China and make foreign policy on the hoof. Though Hillary has the rebut 'America has never stopped being great' to counter Trump too

Scott_P · May 2016

@faisalislam: Extraordinary polling by Comres for how important Gov Carney view (60%ish) is in every age group, class, region: https://t.co/klHZ1WhHWP

williamglenn · May 2016

HYUFD said:
Though Hillary has the rebut 'America has never stopped being great' to counter Trump too

Hardly a humdinger. She might as well say, 'This is as good as it gets folks'.

My point was that Hillary needs to undermine the perception that Trump is capable of making the country better, not disputing whether it needs to be.

GIN1138 · May 2016

FrancisUrquhart said:
An investigation has found no evidence a case against a brothel madam was dropped because she threatened to make allegations against Sir Edward Heath.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-36273388

The plod that stood outside his home making statements have some questions to answer me thinks.

I read that, extraordinarily. the Police intend to keep investigating Sir Edward despite the fact he's been dead for eleven years...

Pulpstar · May 2016

Hillary might make a competent if dull president, but she's a horrible candidate.

Philip_Thompson · May 2016

Casino_Royale said:

Philip_Thompson said:
First like Remain.
Eh? Where's yer optimism!

Its a projection not a wish!

Casino_Royale · May 2016

nunu said:
Just donated £200 to Leave. A drop in the ocean of the government machine and propaganda (WAR!!!!) but atleast I can look back and say I tried.

The remain campaign have already overspent the spending limits (£9M) but this was never going to be a fair fight......

Well done Sir. Good for you.

nunu · May 2016

MP_SE said:

nunu said:
Just donated £200 to Leave. A drop in the ocean of the government machine and propaganda (WAR!!!!) but atleast I can look back and say I tried.

The remain campaign have already overspent the spending limits (£9M) but this was never going to be a fair fight......
Good man/woman.

I am not at all impressed with Vote Leave, however, have been delivering leaflets and will get involved in some door to door canvassing as I could not forgive myself if it is close.

(I'm a manchild.)
If we don't get out there no one else will. Anyhoo even if we lose there is no way I'm going to drop this issue not after this rigged campaign.

FrankBooth · May 2016

Scott_P said:
@faisalislam: Carney is kryptonite for Leave campaign - Comres poll says most important view: 61% - double as important as Obama https://t.co/4y30uHlFvQ

No surprise. He used to work for Goldmans. The public wouldn't be foolish enough to go against their advice.

HYUFD · May 2016

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:
Though Hillary has the rebut 'America has never stopped being great' to counter Trump too
Hardly a humdinger. She might as well say, 'This is as good as it gets folks'.

My point was that Hillary needs to undermine the perception that Trump is capable of making the country better, not disputing whether it needs to be.

The hidden message in Trump's campaign is he wants a whiter America and an America more like the fifties, Hillary is saying she is comfortable with the diverse America of today

FrankBooth · May 2016

I don't think I was entirely clear in my anecdote that the pro-Corbyn lady was also the firm Brexiter. She was also most indignant about Mark Carney's comments on the risks.

TheWhiteRabbit · May 2016

Pulpstar said:
Hillary might make a competent if dull president, but she's a horrible candidate.

[like]

Alistair · May 2016

PeterC said:

Alistair said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alistair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.
Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.
What if Don't Know means Won't Vote? It seems the fairest assumption.
Then it comes down to turnout and no one knows what that will be

In my view on turnout

55% Leave win
65% Remain win
75% Too close to call
85% Remain win
My reading's the opposite. A low turnout will help IN more than out. Forget self-certified certainty data and look at the demographic segments most likely to turn out in elections & IN has the edge.
I'm grading 65% as a low turnout, 55% is extremely low so I don't think we are far apart in thinking.
Why is 65% a low turnout? It's general election level these days. The 1975 referendum had a turnout some 8 points below the October 1974 GE.

The last referendum I participated in had an 85% turnout. And I was disappointed it wasn't higher.

viewcode · May 2016

FrankBooth said:
The Corbyn supporter...had a good word for Boris' intellectual credentials...

To the end of my days I will never understand this unkillable conceit that Boris is an intellectual. Going to Oxford to study Classics doesn't indicate you are intelligent, it indicates you have been well-taught and/or can work hard - which isn't the same thing. He hasn't shown any real capacity for original thought and his postgraduate publication history has been more journalism than research - synthesising and presenting existing sources instead of generating new thought. Gove is arguably his superior, and in terms of authorship Hague definitely is.

MP_SE · May 2016

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/730864698770509825

MP_SE · May 2016

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/730864453760208896

foxinsoxuk · May 2016

Alistair said:

PeterC said:

Alistair said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alistair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.
Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.
What if Don't Know means Won't Vote? It seems the fairest assumption.
Then it comes down to turnout and no one knows what that will be

In my view on turnout

55% Leave win
65% Remain win
75% Too close to call
85% Remain win
My reading's the opposite. A low turnout will help IN more than out. Forget self-certified certainty data and look at the demographic segments most likely to turn out in elections & IN has the edge.
I'm grading 65% as a low turnout, 55% is extremely low so I don't think we are far apart in thinking.
Why is 65% a low turnout? It's general election level these days. The 1975 referendum had a turnout some 8 points below the October 1974 GE.
The last referendum I participated in had an 85% turnout. And I was disappointed it wasn't higher.

There is a ceiling effect with turnout. A number of people such as students are double registered yet can vote only once. Fox jr is one, indeed registered thrice.

FrankBooth · May 2016

viewcode said:

FrankBooth said:
The Corbyn supporter...had a good word for Boris' intellectual credentials...
To the end of my days I will never understand this unkillable conceit that Boris is an intellectual. Going to Oxford to study Classics doesn't indicate you are intelligent, it indicates you have been well-taught and/or can work hard - which isn't the same thing. He hasn't shown any real capacity for original thought and his postgraduate publication history has been more journalism than research - synthesising and presenting existing sources instead of generating new thought. Gove is arguably his superior, and in terms of authorship Hague definitely is.

Well my friend was waxing lyrical about his knowledge of ancient Rome etc. However she is firmly in the Corbyn camp.

TheWhiteRabbit · May 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

Alistair said:

PeterC said:

Alistair said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alistair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.
Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.
What if Don't Know means Won't Vote? It seems the fairest assumption.
Then it comes down to turnout and no one knows what that will be

In my view on turnout

55% Leave win
65% Remain win
75% Too close to call
85% Remain win
My reading's the opposite. A low turnout will help IN more than out. Forget self-certified certainty data and look at the demographic segments most likely to turn out in elections & IN has the edge.
I'm grading 65% as a low turnout, 55% is extremely low so I don't think we are far apart in thinking.
Why is 65% a low turnout? It's general election level these days. The 1975 referendum had a turnout some 8 points below the October 1974 GE.
The last referendum I participated in had an 85% turnout. And I was disappointed it wasn't higher.
There is a ceiling effect with turnout. A number of people such as students are double registered yet can vote only once. Fox jr is one, indeed registered thrice.

One of the side effects on individual registration is that it asks you if you would like to be taken off the register at other address(es).

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2016

FrankBooth said:

Scott_P said:
@faisalislam: Carney is kryptonite for Leave campaign - Comres poll says most important view: 61% - double as important as Obama https://t.co/4y30uHlFvQ
No surprise. He used to work for Goldmans. The public wouldn't be foolish enough to go against their advice.

so did i....

damn they must brainwash us if we are Remainers...

now there is a scandal

HYUFD · May 2016

viewcode said:

FrankBooth said:
The Corbyn supporter...had a good word for Boris' intellectual credentials...
To the end of my days I will never understand this unkillable conceit that Boris is an intellectual. Going to Oxford to study Classics doesn't indicate you are intelligent, it indicates you have been well-taught and/or can work hard - which isn't the same thing. He hasn't shown any real capacity for original thought and his postgraduate publication history has been more journalism than research - synthesising and presenting existing sources instead of generating new thought. Gove is arguably his superior, and in terms of authorship Hague definitely is.

Intellectuals rarely get the top job in politics, Boris is smart which is more important

viewcode · May 2016

HYUFD said:
Bill Clinton is the most popular ex president alive, he is Hillary's best asset

He is now old and frail: his physical appearance is shocking. He would work well in print or possibly as a voiceover, but in person? Not really.

FrankBooth · May 2016

Scrapheap_as_was said:

FrankBooth said:

Scott_P said:
@faisalislam: Carney is kryptonite for Leave campaign - Comres poll says most important view: 61% - double as important as Obama https://t.co/4y30uHlFvQ
No surprise. He used to work for Goldmans. The public wouldn't be foolish enough to go against their advice.
so did i....

damn they must brainwash us if we are Remainers...

now there is a scandal

I wonder if Remain are holding back their star player.

Could it be Lloyd Blankfein?

foxinsoxuk · May 2016

TheWhiteRabbit said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Alistair said:

PeterC said:

Alistair said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alistair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:
Greetings from Paralimni in Cyprus. Leave creeping up in the betting encouraging. Particularly with Cameron playing chicken.
Creeping up? That betting line is so flat you could hang a pair of curtains on it.

The great mystery of this campaign is why there's been so little variance in the betting odds.
Nothing has happened to change sentiment. If there was some revelation that Don't Know meant leave thenthere would be action.
What if Don't Know means Won't Vote? It seems the fairest assumption.
Then it comes down to turnout and no one knows what that will be

In my view on turnout

55% Leave win
65% Remain win
75% Too close to call
85% Remain win
My reading's the opposite. A low turnout will help IN more than out. Forget self-certified certainty data and look at the demographic segments most likely to turn out in elections & IN has the edge.
I'm grading 65% as a low turnout, 55% is extremely low so I don't think we are far apart in thinking.
Why is 65% a low turnout? It's general election level these days. The 1975 referendum had a turnout some 8 points below the October 1974 GE.
The last referendum I participated in had an 85% turnout. And I was disappointed it wasn't higher.
There is a ceiling effect with turnout. A number of people such as students are double registered yet can vote only once. Fox jr is one, indeed registered thrice.
One of the side effects on individual registration is that it asks you if you would like to be taken off the register at other address(es).

I am doubly registered but have not been asked that.

I would never break electoral law by voting twice though , so my turnout will be 50%.

Fenster · May 2016

Scott_P said:
@faisalislam: Extraordinary polling by Comres for how important Gov Carney view (60%ish) is in every age group, class, region: https://t.co/klHZ1WhHWP

Fecking hell, I follow politics and keep getting him mixed up with Martha Kearney.

HYUFD · May 2016

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:
Bill Clinton is the most popular ex president alive, he is Hillary's best asset
He is now old and frail: his physical appearance is shocking. He would work well in print or possibly as a voiceover, but in person? Not really.

Well he is still making several campaign stops for Hillary to packed crowds, he has looked in better shape but he is still an asset, if it was Bill on the ballot not Hillary there is no question it would be a Clinton win!

Cyclefree · May 2016

A good evening from Dictatrix Cyclefree.

AlastairMeeks · May 2016

Evening all. I've had a busy day and missed my own thread. I also missed record-breaking quantities of fauxtrage from people who are happy to label others quislings, traitors and hating their own country. They must have wide throats not to choke on their hypocrisy.

blackburn63 · May 2016

FPT re bigjimwelshman or whatever his name is.

I called him out as a spoof weeks back and he got upset, now it seems others have twigged. In the spirit of pb glasnost I'm prepared to say he's either a spoof or a berk, and I don't think he's a berk, his ramblings about his undecided wife are hilarious.

I can picture them both, sobbing uncontrollably as they leave the polling station, apologising to bystanders for voting IN despite it going against all their instincts.

The vapid Meeks spoke of posters being in the pay of others, he's no fool.

blackburn63 · May 2016

viewcode said:

FrankBooth said:
The Corbyn supporter...had a good word for Boris' intellectual credentials...
To the end of my days I will never understand this unkillable conceit that Boris is an intellectual. Going to Oxford to study Classics doesn't indicate you are intelligent, it indicates you have been well-taught and/or can work hard - which isn't the same thing. He hasn't shown any real capacity for original thought and his postgraduate publication history has been more journalism than research - synthesising and presenting existing sources instead of generating new thought. Gove is arguably his superior, and in terms of authorship Hague definitely is.

Yes, whenever somebody agrees with me I compliment them on their intellect.

HurstLlama · May 2016

AlastairMeeks said:
Evening all. I've had a busy day and missed my own thread. I also missed record-breaking quantities of fauxtrage from people who are happy to label others quislings, traitors and hating their own country. They must have wide throats not to choke on their hypocrisy.

While you are here Mr. Meeks can I ask you again to identify those posters on here that are directed and/or paid for by foreign agencies. The other evening you said that they exist but despite being asked a couple of times you have so far not named them.

foxinsoxuk · May 2016

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:
Bill Clinton is the most popular ex president alive, he is Hillary's best asset
He is now old and frail: his physical appearance is shocking. He would work well in print or possibly as a voiceover, but in person? Not really.

Being old and a little dogeared does not seem to count against a candidate for POTUS. Indeed it is the youngsters who have fallen by the wayside. The contrast with our own cult of youth is quite noticeable.

Richard_Nabavi · May 2016

GIN1138 said:
I tipped [Trump], on here, at the start of 2015 and everybody thought I was crazy...

You were crazy.

But right!

GIN1138 · May 2016

HurstLlama said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Evening all. I've had a busy day and missed my own thread. I also missed record-breaking quantities of fauxtrage from people who are happy to label others quislings, traitors and hating their own country. They must have wide throats not to choke on their hypocrisy.
While you are here Mr. Meeks can I ask you again to identify those posters on here that are directed and/or paid for by foreign agencies. The other evening you said that they exist but despite being asked a couple of times you have so far not named them.

People get paid to post on PB????? So that's where I've been going wrong for the past decade!

foxinsoxuk · May 2016

HurstLlama said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Evening all. I've had a busy day and missed my own thread. I also missed record-breaking quantities of fauxtrage from people who are happy to label others quislings, traitors and hating their own country. They must have wide throats not to choke on their hypocrisy.
While you are here Mr. Meeks can I ask you again to identify those posters on here that are directed and/or paid for by foreign agencies. The other evening you said that they exist but despite being asked a couple of times you have so far not named them.

I think RCS1000 has confirmed that we have a number of posters from Russian IP addresses.

If you suggest that Ukraine has the right to self determination and applicatant status for EU membership and they tend to pop up.

another_richard · May 2016

GIN1138 said:

HurstLlama said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Evening all. I've had a busy day and missed my own thread. I also missed record-breaking quantities of fauxtrage from people who are happy to label others quislings, traitors and hating their own country. They must have wide throats not to choke on their hypocrisy.
While you are here Mr. Meeks can I ask you again to identify those posters on here that are directed and/or paid for by foreign agencies. The other evening you said that they exist but despite being asked a couple of times you have so far not named them.
People get paid to post on PB????? So that's where I've been going wrong for the past decade!

It does explain why some people of working age seem to spend most of the day on the site.

I'd like to know what the going payment rate is and whether PBers can transfer from one foreign agency to another.

SouthamObserver · May 2016

DavidL said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

SeanT said:
I see Trump is now rowing back on all his madder ideas, like the total ban on Muslims. As some of us predicted. He said all that crazy stuff to win the Nom.

Now he will tack sharply to the center, and his adoring fans will forgive him.

He's much cleverer than people will admit, and he has a real chance of winning.
It'll turn into a ban from places like Pakistan, Iran, other majority muslim countries associated with terrorism.
Brief reminder: I met a very smart, funny, acute, elderly American billionairess when i was in Kenya looking at THE THREE LAST NORTHERN WHITE RHINOS ON EARTH, last month.

She'd been in the safari camp for a month, spending her money. She told me she was Trump's next door neighbour.

Her verdict on the Donald? "He's very intelligent, and an excellent delegator".

She wasn't trying to convince me of his politics, she was just stating it as bald fact. Interesting.
I think President Trump will be a surprise and a disappointment all at once. Those who are expecting disaster will be pleasantly surprised. Those expecting radical change will be seriously disappointed about how much the new boss is like the old boss.

The big risk with Trump is that he'll get bored. He clearly wants to win the Presidency, but whether he actually wants to be President is another matter entirely. If you're not a politician - and he's not - it could get tiring to be so constrained.

AlastairMeeks · May 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

HurstLlama said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Evening all. I've had a busy day and missed my own thread. I also missed record-breaking quantities of fauxtrage from people who are happy to label others quislings, traitors and hating their own country. They must have wide throats not to choke on their hypocrisy.
While you are here Mr. Meeks can I ask you again to identify those posters on here that are directed and/or paid for by foreign agencies. The other evening you said that they exist but despite being asked a couple of times you have so far not named them.
I think RCS1000 has confirmed that we have a number of posters from Russian IP addresses.

If you suggest that Ukraine has the right to self determination and applicatant status for EU membership and they tend to pop up.

I'm amazed this is seen as an unlikely thesis. It's not as though Russia's troll factories aren't well documented.