politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Post: Summer 2016 might lead to a generational shift
Comments
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taffys said:
Walesonline reports that JOnes would have lost the vote if Kirsty Williams of the lib dems had not voted for him..</blockquote
Hang on - Labour has 29, the Conservatives, UKIP and Plaid have 30. If Kirsty had voted with Labour it would have been 30-30.
Are we saying one from each side didn't vote for some reason ?0 -
@Pulpstar, perhaps you prefer this one that had been mooted for Newfoundland and Labrador?
http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/vexillology/images/7/76/Newfoundland_and_Labrador_Province_Canada_Flag_Proposal_No_2_Designed_By_Stephen_Richard_Barlow_15SEP2014_at_1117hrs_cst.png/revision/latest?cb=201409151620220 -
I find it bizarre that the Conservatives should wish to mess with the BBC. It's a much-loved national institution. Sure, it has an irrational charging model but so what? People like the BBC the way it is. If the Conservatives are seen to be trying to damage it they will provoke a tidal wave of hatred, not least from small-c conservatives who would once have been their natural supporters.0
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That was rather the point of my post! But I think better implied...Richard_Tyndall said:
Scott is.Charles said:
No. But different people have different views. We're not all automotaScott_P said:
Can someone reconcile for meMaxPB said:He will reshuffle to a unity Cabinet, Osborne, Javid and possibly Hammond will make way for the Leave big guns.
1. Cameron will promote Leavers in a reshuffle
2. Cameron will be gone 24 hours after the vote
?0 -
Seriously big commitment
Jim Pickard
Electoral Commission figures indicate that @Arron_banks has given £2m and lent £3m to the Brexit cause. Another £3.2m from Peter Hargreaves.0 -
Much as it works today, you don't have to have a tv licence to listen to Radio 4. In fact, the BBC could allow (a limited amount of) advertising on the Radio and make a killing.HurstLlama said:A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?
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Same way as now.HurstLlama said:A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?
If they want to run adverts, they should be allowed to but frankly, I think they'd trash their market appeal if they did.0 -
I was expecting dogsAlastairMeeks said:@Pulpstar, perhaps you prefer this one that had been mooted for Newfoundland and Labrador?
http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/vexillology/images/7/76/Newfoundland_and_Labrador_Province_Canada_Flag_Proposal_No_2_Designed_By_Stephen_Richard_Barlow_15SEP2014_at_1117hrs_cst.png/revision/latest?cb=201409151620220 -
That's just West Virginia Democratic Primary voters, not all Democrats.Plato_Says said:
It was an open Primary.0 -
Basically they can see what you can't - the institutionalised left-wing bias of journalists in general and BBC political commentators in particular. All you have to do is to listen how they present the news.murali_s said:Usual suspects bashing one of our greatest and loved institutions, the BBC. What is it with the right wing fruitcakes and the BBC?
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@Wanderer Dogs would have made a better flag, to be honest.0
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How is freeing it from a regulatory and funding straightjacket designed for it in the 1920s 'bashing' it?murali_s said:Usual suspects bashing one of our greatest and loved institutions, the BBC. What is it with the right wing fruitcakes and the BBC?
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Presiding officer and deputy?stodge said:
Hang on - Labour has 29, the Conservatives, UKIP and Plaid have 30. If Kirsty had voted with Labour it would have been 30-30.
Are we saying one from each side didn't vote for some reason ?0 -
THat one is not too bad at all - but where are the Lib DemsAlastairMeeks said:@Pulpstar, perhaps you prefer this one that had been mooted for Newfoundland and Labrador?
http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/vexillology/images/7/76/Newfoundland_and_Labrador_Province_Canada_Flag_Proposal_No_2_Designed_By_Stephen_Richard_Barlow_15SEP2014_at_1117hrs_cst.png/revision/latest?cb=20140915162022
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My foundation is named (in a rather recondite way) for Labrador... my Dad had a mine out there and when he sold his stake and repatriated the money to Britain it clearly had to be named 'Bulldog'.Wanderer said:
I was expecting dogsAlastairMeeks said:@Pulpstar, perhaps you prefer this one that had been mooted for Newfoundland and Labrador?
http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/vexillology/images/7/76/Newfoundland_and_Labrador_Province_Canada_Flag_Proposal_No_2_Designed_By_Stephen_Richard_Barlow_15SEP2014_at_1117hrs_cst.png/revision/latest?cb=201409151620220 -
The Conservative Vote chart will look interesting.Plato_Says said:0 -
You seem to miss the point that some of us are making. It is not about bashing the BBC, it is about being realistic that this renewal is suppose to be securing the future of the BBC for another 10 years. Its current model is already creaking, let alone 5+ years down the line.murali_s said:Usual suspects bashing one of our greatest and loved institutions, the BBC. What is it with the right wing fruitcakes and the BBC?
The quaint idea of people sitting down a single moving picture box or a massive transistor radio is dead, but the funding model that it was based upon is not enforceable anymore. At the moment, it is the goodwill of people that continue to pay it, but more and more people will just realise that they a) don't need to b) huge amount of alternatives.0 -
Yuk. A vexillologist's worst nightmare.AlastairMeeks said:Should the Lib Dems throw in their lot with Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and UKIP, North Devon have a handy flag suitable for this unlikely coalition:
https://britishcountyflags.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/insert-image-17-north-flag.jpg0 -
So the subscribers to the TV channels would pay non-optional surcharge to cover the cost of BBC radio. It probably wouldn't be much and people might go for it but it is a move away from the idea that you pay for what you watch.tlg86 said:
Much as it works today, you don't have to have a tv licence to listen to Radio 4. In fact, the BBC could allow (a limited amount of) advertising on the Radio and make a killing.HurstLlama said:A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?
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Under your subscription model, does the BBC receive public funding or not?HurstLlama said:
So the subscribers to the TV channels would pay non-optional surcharge to cover the cost of BBC radio. It probably wouldn't be much and people might go for it but it is a move away from the idea that you pay for what you watch.tlg86 said:
Much as it works today, you don't have to have a tv licence to listen to Radio 4. In fact, the BBC could allow (a limited amount of) advertising on the Radio and make a killing.HurstLlama said:A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?
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The Conservative chart will look something like a smile (for Holyrood, at least).Alistair said:
The Conservative Vote chart will look interesting.Plato_Says said:0 -
Chicken feed!Plato_Says said:Seriously big commitment
Jim Pickard Electoral Commission figures indicate that @Arron_banks has given £2m and lent £3m to the Brexit cause. Another £3.2m from Peter Hargreaves.0 -
BT and Sky spend my money on lots of stuff that I don't watch!HurstLlama said:
So the subscribers to the TV channels would pay non-optional surcharge to cover the cost of BBC radio. It probably wouldn't be much and people might go for it but it is a move away from the idea that you pay for what you watch.tlg86 said:
Much as it works today, you don't have to have a tv licence to listen to Radio 4. In fact, the BBC could allow (a limited amount of) advertising on the Radio and make a killing.HurstLlama said:A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?
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I was wrong, it's really boringAlistair said:
The Conservative Vote chart will look interesting.Plato_Says said:
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/7304108065889198090 -
But will you go to jail, go directly to jail (and not collect £200!), if you refuse to pay BT and/or SKY?tlg86 said:
BT and Sky spend my money on lots of stuff that I don't watch!HurstLlama said:
So the subscribers to the TV channels would pay non-optional surcharge to cover the cost of BBC radio. It probably wouldn't be much and people might go for it but it is a move away from the idea that you pay for what you watch.tlg86 said:
Much as it works today, you don't have to have a tv licence to listen to Radio 4. In fact, the BBC could allow (a limited amount of) advertising on the Radio and make a killing.HurstLlama said:A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?
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Walesonline had a line from the Welsh UKIP leader decision
'like Leicester sacking Ranieri'
Quite good.0 -
I am not sure why you are asking me, I don't have any sort of model in mind. Others put forward the idea of moving the BBC to a subscription service, I merely asked about how it would work for funding radio.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Under your subscription model, does the BBC receive public funding or not?HurstLlama said:
So the subscribers to the TV channels would pay non-optional surcharge to cover the cost of BBC radio. It probably wouldn't be much and people might go for it but it is a move away from the idea that you pay for what you watch.tlg86 said:
Much as it works today, you don't have to have a tv licence to listen to Radio 4. In fact, the BBC could allow (a limited amount of) advertising on the Radio and make a killing.HurstLlama said:A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?
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Jump from 14% to 22% is hardly boring!Alistair said:
I was wrong, it's really boringAlistair said:
The Conservative Vote chart will look interesting.Plato_Says said:
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/7304108065889198090 -
The presiding officer is overheard asking “What do I do now?”
http://order-order.com/2016/05/11/leanne-wood-and-carwyn-jones-tied-in-welsh-first-minister-vote/0 -
Surprisingly no, They must be thanking their lucky stars for both the IndyRef and more importantly that the Fixed Term Parliament Act shifted the Holyrood elections from 2015 to 2016.david_herdson said:
The Conservative chart will look something like a smile (for Holyrood, at least).Alistair said:
The Conservative Vote chart will look interesting.Plato_Says said:0 -
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Problem is Fallon made a fool of himself with his comments on the Mayoral election in London, Greg Clark was utterly useless on QT two weeks ago and Justine Greening has had a lot of bad press because her department has given money to stupid causes. My hope would be for Dominic Raab if the party wants to take a chance or Gove if it wants to play safe.0
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Who decided to have an assembly with an even number of members?0
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@murali_s
Usual suspects bashing one of our greatest and loved institutions, the BBC. What is it with the right wing fruitcakes and the BBC?'
What is it with these left wing nutters that hate choice, competition and want to enforce payment for a TV channel through threat of prison ?
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Westminster = 650Pulpstar said:Who decided to have an assembly with an even number of members?
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If it had had 61, and additional candidate would have brought down the number voting to 58 anyway.Pulpstar said:Who decided to have an assembly with an even number of members?
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U.S. General Election - Ipsos/Reuters Poll
Clinton 41%
Trump: 40%
Undecided: 19%
Margin of Error +/-3%
Poll conducted May 6-100 -
The Welsh situation appears not dissimilar to the Roman Empire after Pertinax's murder. Albeit without the continent-spanning civil war, obviously.0
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WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line upAlistair said:
I was wrong, it's really boringAlistair said:
The Conservative Vote chart will look interesting.Plato_Says said:
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/7304108065889198090 -
but also has the speaker which votes in the event of a tie...Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
The US senate is required to have an even number of members by the constitution. Dumbass founding fathers.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Technically speaking they have an odd number of members.Wanderer said:
The US senate is required to have an even number of members by the constitution. Dumbass founding fathers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Vice-President is ex-officio President of the Senate, and settles all ties.0 -
@DPJHodges: Just to be clear. Those people on the Left attacking @LeanneWood for trying to do a deal to become First Minister oppose PR, right?0
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Grim Reaper claims another one, Tony Cozier has died, could listen to his voice all day long0
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Wales doesn't really have a Praetorian Guard does it? Something they need to work on.Morris_Dancer said:The Welsh situation appears not dissimilar to the Roman Empire after Pertinax's murder. Albeit without the continent-spanning civil war, obviously.
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Mr. Wanderer, it does amuse me when political journalists refer to loyal followers as a Praetorian Guard, given the Praetorians probably deposed and killed more emperors than they saved.0
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2015 was the worst ever votes share the Conservatives got in Scotland. Eight hundred votes or so different (400 on swing) and Mundell would have lost his seat making it the worst ever result ever.TheWhiteRabbit said:
WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line upAlistair said:
I was wrong, it's really boringAlistair said:
The Conservative Vote chart will look interesting.Plato_Says said:
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/730410806588919809
So plenty of scope for improvement.
Of course, turnout at Holyrood was 55%, turnout at the general election was 71% in Scotland.0 -
God, so could I. That's such a shame.TheScreamingEagles said:Grim Reaper claims another one, Tony Cozier has died, could listen to his voice all day long
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GR back from his holibobs...TheScreamingEagles said:Grim Reaper claims another one, Tony Cozier has died, could listen to his voice all day long
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Has Leanne actually considered how she'll run a Gov't with her kaleidoscope coalition
? 0 -
"A kaleidoscope FM of a kaleidoscope nation"Pulpstar said:Has Leanne actually considered how she'll run a Gov't with her kaleidoscope coalition
?0 -
Yes and Kirsty is left either letting in the unholy alliance of Plaid, UKIP and the Conservatives or opting to prolong the chaos in the hope something changes like the UKIP group breaking up.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Presiding officer and deputy?
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Interesting article, Mr. Mortimer. I agree May is the value, 8/1 is too long. Fallon at 50/1 may be tradeable but I'm not sure I can see him getting into the final two.0
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It would have made the Rainbow coalition mooted in 2010 look stablePulpstar said:Has Leanne actually considered how she'll run a Gov't with her kaleidoscope coalition
?0 -
The same people now whining about this, were the ones promoting the Rainbow coalition...TheScreamingEagles said:It would have made the Rainbow coalition mooted in 2010 look stable
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Danny Welbeck out injured for NINE months0
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I don't know which England international is more injury prone, Welbeck, Wilshere, or Walcott ....hnourable mentions to Oxlade Chamberlain, Sturridge, .....TheScreamingEagles said:Danny Welbeck out injured for NINE months
Edit:- Forgot Luke Shaw,0 -
The SNP have inherited some of Labour's lazy voters, and lost a few in the leafier areas.Alistair said:
2015 was the worst ever votes share the Conservatives got in Scotland. Eight hundred votes or so different (400 on swing) and Mundell would have lost his seat making it the worst ever result ever.TheWhiteRabbit said:
WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line upAlistair said:
I was wrong, it's really boringAlistair said:
The Conservative Vote chart will look interesting.Plato_Says said:
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/730410806588919809
So plenty of scope for improvement.
Of course, turnout at Holyrood was 55%, turnout at the general election was 71% in Scotland.0 -
Tokyo Olympics: €1.3m payment to secret account raises questions over 2020 Games
• Alleged payment believed to be under scrutiny by French police
• Pressure on IOC to investigate links between Diack regime and Olympic bids
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/may/11/tokyo-olympics-payment-diack-2020-games0 -
Do you know @Pulpstar (or others) whether the Labyrinthine system in West Virginia (geographic distribution wise) actually resulted in Trump not getting all 34 delegates?
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Where as they basically couldn't give the 2022 Winter Olymipics away...TheScreamingEagles said:Tokyo Olympics: €1.3m payment to secret account raises questions over 2020 Games
• Alleged payment believed to be under scrutiny by French police
• Pressure on IOC to investigate links between Diack regime and Olympic bids
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/may/11/tokyo-olympics-payment-diack-2020-games0 -
What's PR got to do, got to do with it ?Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Just to be clear. Those people on the Left attacking @LeanneWood for trying to do a deal to become First Minister oppose PR, right?
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By gaining Glasgow they've gained the Lazy voters. But in terms of rural areas their vote mostly stayed static, minor increases or decreases in absolute numbers in very safe seats but the boost in turnout from the Tory surge made their vote share go down even as their total votes went up. The only significant vote crash in the NE was where Alex Salmond stepped down.Pulpstar said:
The SNP have inherited some of Labour's lazy voters, and lost a few in the leafier areas.Alistair said:
2015 was the worst ever votes share the Conservatives got in Scotland. Eight hundred votes or so different (400 on swing) and Mundell would have lost his seat making it the worst ever result ever.TheWhiteRabbit said:
WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line upAlistair said:
I was wrong, it's really boringAlistair said:
The Conservative Vote chart will look interesting.Plato_Says said:
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/730410806588919809
So plenty of scope for improvement.
Of course, turnout at Holyrood was 55%, turnout at the general election was 71% in Scotland.0 -
Hah ! That's a good questionTheWhiteRabbit said:Do you know @Pulpstar (or others) whether the Labyrinthine system in West Virginia (geographic distribution wise) actually resulted in Trump not getting all 34 delegates?
22 at-large delegates (10 at-large plus 12 bonus) are directly elected statewide. Of these 22 At-Large delegates that will be selected on the statewide ballot not more than 2 may come from the same county and only the 7 top vote-getters from each Congressional District that have been voted on by all Republican primary voters in the state, are elected as Delegates- among the 21 of these 22 not including the delegate-candidate with the most votes statewide; since the top vote-getting At-Large Delegate is immune to geographic restrictions (that is: the delegate-candidate with the most votes is elected outright in any event), he/she will not factor into the geographically-determined counts restricting the other 21 At Large Delegates. Please note that, despite these geographical restrictions, this system does allow, say, a voter in CD 3 to cast his/her vote for At-Large delegate-candidates in CD 1 or CD 2 and vice versa.0 -
Dr P,
"So the answer to my question is no, none of the Brexiteers can reconcile their wild claims.
Thanks"
Too busy heading for the nuclear fall-out shelters when they win.
I'd assumed that Cameron would cut out the nonsensical WW3 claims, but no. If you're going to tell a lie, make it a big one. What's the phrase ... jumping the shark?0 -
The forecast had been made that the top 22 delegates, even though all would be Trump, some ( I think it was 7) would be ineligible and effectively pass over to another candidate.Pulpstar said:
Hah ! That's a good questionTheWhiteRabbit said:Do you know @Pulpstar (or others) whether the Labyrinthine system in West Virginia (geographic distribution wise) actually resulted in Trump not getting all 34 delegates?
22 at-large delegates (10 at-large plus 12 bonus) are directly elected statewide. Of these 22 At-Large delegates that will be selected on the statewide ballot not more than 2 may come from the same county and only the 7 top vote-getters from each Congressional District that have been voted on by all Republican primary voters in the state, are elected as Delegates- among the 21 of these 22 not including the delegate-candidate with the most votes statewide; since the top vote-getting At-Large Delegate is immune to geographic restrictions (that is: the delegate-candidate with the most votes is elected outright in any event), he/she will not factor into the geographically-determined counts restricting the other 21 At Large Delegates. Please note that, despite these geographical restrictions, this system does allow, say, a voter in CD 3 to cast his/her vote for At-Large delegate-candidates in CD 1 or CD 2 and vice versa.0 -
Mr. CD13, or nuking the fridge.
I fear Cameron has nuked the shark, and made himself look silly.0 -
East Renfrewshire looks like a Tory-SNP marginal in 2020 to me now, for sure.Alistair said:
By gaining Glasgow they've gained the Lazy voters. But in terms of rural areas their vote mostly stayed static, minor increases or decreases in absolute numbers in very safe seats but the boost in turnout from the Tory surge made their vote share go down even as their total votes went up. The only significant vote crash in the NE was where Alex Salmond stepped down.Pulpstar said:
The SNP have inherited some of Labour's lazy voters, and lost a few in the leafier areas.Alistair said:
2015 was the worst ever votes share the Conservatives got in Scotland. Eight hundred votes or so different (400 on swing) and Mundell would have lost his seat making it the worst ever result ever.TheWhiteRabbit said:
WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line upAlistair said:
I was wrong, it's really boringAlistair said:
The Conservative Vote chart will look interesting.Plato_Says said:
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/730410806588919809
So plenty of scope for improvement.
Of course, turnout at Holyrood was 55%, turnout at the general election was 71% in Scotland.0 -
I'm not sure about Heidi Alexander.
On several occasions she has been willing to quote faked up statistics from the Despatch Box, *after* they had been shown to be dishonest and/or false.
One example was the claim that "90% of junior doctors" would leave, after it had been shown to be a voodoo poll from a striking Drs' facebook page.
The lady is not competent, even at deception.
The others, maybe, though I took my profit on Jarvis for leader when he declared himself out.0 -
Excellent thread header well done. Nice to see something that is not either blatantly partisan or sneering. I like partisan views, don't really object to abuse, but that should be reserved for the posts.
Thank you mortimer.0 -
Tories should look to win the three borders seats and run the SNP close across as much of rural Scotland as possible, in order to frame those seats as Tory v SNP, other parties irrelevant.Pulpstar said:
East Renfrewshire looks like a Tory-SNP marginal in 2020 to me now, for sure.Alistair said:
By gaining Glasgow they've gained the Lazy voters. But in terms of rural areas their vote mostly stayed static, minor increases or decreases in absolute numbers in very safe seats but the boost in turnout from the Tory surge made their vote share go down even as their total votes went up. The only significant vote crash in the NE was where Alex Salmond stepped down.Pulpstar said:
The SNP have inherited some of Labour's lazy voters, and lost a few in the leafier areas.Alistair said:
2015 was the worst ever votes share the Conservatives got in Scotland. Eight hundred votes or so different (400 on swing) and Mundell would have lost his seat making it the worst ever result ever.TheWhiteRabbit said:
WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line upAlistair said:
I was wrong, it's really boringAlistair said:
The Conservative Vote chart will look interesting.Plato_Says said:
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/730410806588919809
So plenty of scope for improvement.
Of course, turnout at Holyrood was 55%, turnout at the general election was 71% in Scotland.0 -
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WV-R shows 31 with 3 'available'.TheWhiteRabbit said:Do you know @Pulpstar (or others) whether the Labyrinthine system in West Virginia (geographic distribution wise) actually resulted in Trump not getting all 34 delegates?
The other 3 are presumably
"The 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the West Virginia's Republican Party, will attend the convention, by virtue of their position, bound to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide."0 -
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That requires Brexit...Morris_Dancer said:The Welsh situation appears not dissimilar to the Roman Empire after Pertinax's murder. Albeit without the continent-spanning civil war, obviously.
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If you examine the election vote closely, there is a clear alphabet effect present.weejonnie said:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WV-R shows 31 with 3 'available'.TheWhiteRabbit said:Do you know @Pulpstar (or others) whether the Labyrinthine system in West Virginia (geographic distribution wise) actually resulted in Trump not getting all 34 delegates?
The other 3 are presumably
"The 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the West Virginia's Republican Party, will attend the convention, by virtue of their position, bound to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide."0 -
Maybe another Country will have to go on Mr Cameron's little list.TheScreamingEagles said:Tokyo Olympics: €1.3m payment to secret account raises questions over 2020 Games
• Alleged payment believed to be under scrutiny by French police
• Pressure on IOC to investigate links between Diack regime and Olympic bids
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/may/11/tokyo-olympics-payment-diack-2020-games
0 -
Blimey, Mr Speaker throws PM out of Parliament during a heated debate on the Panama Papers
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-362640890 -
Go Leanne
shake the place up.0 -
Hmmm, I'm wondering if it will be marginal or a easy Con win.Pulpstar said:
East Renfrewshire looks like a Tory-SNP marginal in 2020 to me now, for sure.Alistair said:
By gaining Glasgow they've gained the Lazy voters. But in terms of rural areas their vote mostly stayed static, minor increases or decreases in absolute numbers in very safe seats but the boost in turnout from the Tory surge made their vote share go down even as their total votes went up. The only significant vote crash in the NE was where Alex Salmond stepped down.Pulpstar said:
The SNP have inherited some of Labour's lazy voters, and lost a few in the leafier areas.Alistair said:
2015 was the worst ever votes share the Conservatives got in Scotland. Eight hundred votes or so different (400 on swing) and Mundell would have lost his seat making it the worst ever result ever.TheWhiteRabbit said:
WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line upAlistair said:
I was wrong, it's really boringAlistair said:
The Conservative Vote chart will look interesting.Plato_Says said:
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/730410806588919809
So plenty of scope for improvement.
Of course, turnout at Holyrood was 55%, turnout at the general election was 71% in Scotland.
Already 81.1% turnout so 10% points higher than national turnout so not much scope for a Tory vote surge.
Big gap for Cons to close but that was on the SNP getting 50% of the vote. The equivalent Scottish constituency, Eastwood, doesn't contain Barrhead.
2015 results
SNP Kirsten Oswald 23,013
Labour Jim Murphy 19,295
Conservative David Montgomery 12,465
In East wood the Conservatives went from 33.36% of the vote to 35.7% of the vote, the SNP went from 24.36% to 31.2%. Turnout was up 6% points. LAbour lost only 1500 physical votes but their vote share went from 39.66 to 30.6%. No Lib Dems to speak of.
Interesting seat for 2020. No idea how to call it.0 -
I wish Bercrow would do the same sometimes.TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, Mr Speaker throws PM out of Parliament during a heated debate on the Panama Papers
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-362640890 -
@PaulBrandITV: This is quite an interesting argument from @WelshConserv on why they're backing @LeanneWood for FM of Wales https://t.co/5mJNgiPCM00
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Mr. Mark, you clearly don't understand international politics. If we leave the EU, that means global war. Probably nuclear.0
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I can't stand John Bercow, honestly in a few years' time we'll be sayingAlanbrooke said:
I wish Bercrow would do the same sometimes.TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, Mr Speaker throws PM out of Parliament during a heated debate on the Panama Papers
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-36264089
'Napoleon had a Bercow complex'0 -
If using junk statistics is a hanging offence then few politicians or PB posters would be long for this world. Just this week Hunts claim that there was excess stroke mortality associated with weekend admissions was shown to be untrue.MattW said:I'm not sure about Heidi Alexander.
On several occasions she has been willing to quote faked up statistics from the Despatch Box, *after* they had been shown to be dishonest and/or false.
One example was the claim that "90% of junior doctors" would leave, after it had been shown to be a voodoo poll from a striking Drs' facebook page.
The lady is not competent, even at deception.
The others, maybe, though I took my profit on Jarvis for leader when he declared himself out.
Heidi Alexander has been one of Corbyns more effective frontbenchers, both in the House and has managed to not put her foot in her mouth when in front of the media. There are lots of worse choices!
You may not like her position on the strikes, but polling shows the public is on the junior docs side.
I do not know if she has leadrrship ambitions, but not a bad longshot if looking for a left wing next generation leader who does not have a lot of baggage.0 -
Certainly looks like it. Maybe I should change my name to Aaron Aaranovitch.Pulpstar said:
If you examine the election vote closely, there is a clear alphabet effect present.weejonnie said:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WV-R shows 31 with 3 'available'.TheWhiteRabbit said:Do you know @Pulpstar (or others) whether the Labyrinthine system in West Virginia (geographic distribution wise) actually resulted in Trump not getting all 34 delegates?
The other 3 are presumably
"The 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the West Virginia's Republican Party, will attend the convention, by virtue of their position, bound to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide."
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So, just as happened at Westminster in 2010 when the Conservatives didn't win a majority and "had to cooperate" with the Liberal Democrats,Scott_P said:
Labour did not win a majority. PR creates coalitions, and situations where parties have to cooperatestodge said:
What's PR got to do, got to do with it ?
The Tories might regret being junior partner in a Plaid led Welsh Government.0 -
That's 19000 votes you have to account for then. Even allowing for a 3000 voter turnout surge for the Conservatives if the SNP are running at 50% national polling in 2020 (Big If) then the Cons need to get 10000 Lab supporters to switch to them without any Lab leakage to the SNP. Big ask.Pulpstar said:@Alistair I think the only (near) certainty is that you can more or less rule Labour out
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All those criticising Cameron must be feeling a bit stupid right now
https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/7304201371704852480 -
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I absolutely agree about Dominic Raab. He gave another very good performance on Daily Politics the other day.MalcolmDunn said:Problem is Fallon made a fool of himself with his comments on the Mayoral election in London, Greg Clark was utterly useless on QT two weeks ago and Justine Greening has had a lot of bad press because her department has given money to stupid causes. My hope would be for Dominic Raab if the party wants to take a chance or Gove if it wants to play safe.
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Yebbut the "two most corrupt" nations are N. Korea and Somalia.TheScreamingEagles said:All those criticising Cameron must be feeling a bit stupid right now
https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/730420137170485248
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index0 -
Looks like Labour will have to have a chat with Plaid, give them some concessions or some such and then get Jones elected. If Labour withdraw Carwyn and actually let Wood get elected, I can't see the whole shebang lasting another 4 weeks let alone 4 years !0
