Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Post: Summer 2016 might lead to a generational shift
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Post: Summer 2016 might lead to a generational shift in the two main parties
Summer 2016 could prove a watershed moment in modern British politics. April and early-May have already seen the incumbent leadership of the English Conservatives shown up in comparison to Ruth Davidson’s success north of the border, and the old guard of an apparently gaffe-obsessed Labour Party cheered by victory in London yet criticised by the triumphant Sadiq Khan.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Also agree with you on Fallon and May, especially May, she might well be the only Tory undamaged by the referendum
The Labour party has given up trying to win General Elections for the foreseeable future.
@Pulpstar will be pleased to hear that Cruz is actually my best outcome at +£2,500 :P
As regards ministerial promotions, a lot will obviously depend on the timing of any changing of the guard, and that in turn depends on the referendum. A Leave result would surely be followed by a relatively quick Cameron resignation, which wouldn't leave much time for new talent to come to prominence. If it's a Remain result, then I imagine Cameron will want to reshuffle more extensively than he has in the past, perhaps giving some of the middle-aged cardinals more of a chance, and that might mean that any leadership contest in a couple of years' time could turn out to be rather different to how things look now.
Still, as at today, I agree that Theresa May is the stand-out value.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/11/jeremy-clarkson-reveals-name-of-new-amazon-prime-showand-its-not/
Interesting that perceived wisdom amongst party members is that Osborne's leadership hopes are dead in the water. Still not sure about the older Pope. The next leader is taking the party through the 2020's. May is 60 in October, 70 by 2026. That is going to feel like the Party is going backwards after the relative youth of Cameron when elected leader.
I can see a scenario where Cameron goes this year, with Gove elected as an interim leader for two years. This will be on the understanding that he will bring the party together after the Referendum - and have an extended beauty parade for the next leader to take the party into the 2020's.
#ShouldHaveGoneToSpecSavers
POTUS Trump is now again offering me ~£1000 for cashout.
Given Cameron's been burning bridges faster than a stupid general, I'm inclined to Mrs May for now. Better than a Howard stop-gap, and a stalwart of the very tricky HO hot seat.
@BethRigby: EXCL: The govt WILL ask #BBC stars to disclose their earnings -- if they are over £450k: Basically anyone earning more than Lord Hall
I'd be happy to see a decent interim followed by a beauty parade. That could allow Greg Clark to shine....
All this though again is really just a lot of hot air and nonsense. It fundamentally doesn't get the heart of the problem with the BBC. The licence fee isn't fit for the 21st Century, it is completely unenforceable and based on a totally outdated model.. But while the big boys like Sky, BT, Netflix have the deep pockets to outbid the BBC on one hand (so the BBC sport offering is a joke), they are also currently using that big beast position in other areas to drive small fish out of business in things that aren't the core of what the BBC should be about.
http://labourlist.org/2016/05/tooting-by-election-runners-and-riders/
Hillary over Trump +1253.28
Sanders over GOP field -1846.24 <- Arf
Overall fair value of book 1507.04 (Combined GOP, DEM, POTUS)
That excludes some side bets where I need Trump to win "convincingly" - so in reality the Trump related bets are slightly better than that, and the non Trump ones slightly worse.
I think the next parliament will probably see less new blood than the current one as room will have to be made for MPs displaced in the boundary review and the loss of 50 MPs overall.
On the Tory side, Cameron promised has no-one will be left behind and he will have to be seen to be sticking to this to get the changes through. In some areas this will be easier than others:
e.g. in Essex, Priti Patel's seat is likely to be the one to go but Sir Alan Haselhurst in Saffron Walden is 78 and can perhaps be persuaded to stand aside
In Devon and Cornwall it is less clear which seat is disappearing as both counties lose 1/2 seat each. Also most of the Con MPs were elected in 2010 or 2015 so will be less inclined to retire.
Another issue is Wales. Surely some of the Welsh MPs will have to be found seats in England, if Cameron is to keep his promise.
A final issue is that some MPs will end up with less safe seats (e.g. David Davis is likely to end up facing Alan Johnson in a Haltemprice and Hull W)
On the Labour side, Momentum will probably be looking at the boundary review as a chance for some "stealth" deselections. Tristram Hunt is definitely in trouble with the Potteries going from 4 to 3 Lab seats
It's amazing that we'll publish BBC employees salaries but we won't make public a register of who owns Britain's lands.
But Cameron has nailed himself and his colours to the mast just that little bit too firmly for most members. If his leadership is no longer viewed as an election winning vehicle, I think it will be left at the side of the road.
The political mercilessness of the Tory party when in government must not be forgotten.
Once the Dem Primary is over the TRump surge will finish.
I see the West Virginia Primary was an open Primary as well so my view on who the "Democratic Primary" voters would vote for in the General is that they should be taken with a tablespoon of salt.
Did you see this? There's so many interesting angles here.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-gops-electoral-map-problem-is-not-about-trump-its-about-demographics/2016/05/08/14cdf1fc-1523-11e6-924d-838753295f9a_story.html PS Check your VM
He will reshuffle to a unity Cabinet, Osborne, Javid and possibly Hammond will make way for the Leave big guns.
1. Cameron will promote Leavers in a reshuffle
2. Cameron will be gone 24 hours after the vote
?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36267052
In the past the voters would say 'if we don;t like the government we'll get a new one'. Now governments say 'if we don;t like the voters, we'll get new ones'.
My main issue is the licence fee can't be enforced, as it is based on the idea that everybody sits in front of moving picture box in our living room. Even this tinkering at somehow making iPlayer password protected doesn't really address this.
It reminds me of the way the record companies stuck their heads in the sand over music downloads then streaming for far too long. Holding desperately to this notion that people will still go out and buy the physical copy of their favourite music.
The pirate sites already upload HD versions of all major tv within minutes of their broadcast. One of the biggest selling devices last Christmas, the Amazon Fire Stick, and it wasn't because people wanted to watch Amazon Prime.
This idea of these platforms where one can only access it via an aerial or a satellite dish is going to be obsolete. Radio, as in analogue via an aerial, as we know it today won't exist. DAB isn't going to replace it, internet streaming is. In your car, on the move etc etc etc. Same with video streaming.
All the content providers are too over protective of their material, desperately trying to ring fence them on different platforms and different regions. In music, that has basically been blow out of the water. If you aren't on Spotify you are either one of probably 20 artists big enough to be able to get away with that or a moron (and even if you are the former you are probably still the later).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-politics-36257904
The vote for First Minister was tied 29-29, and the Presiding Officer says plenary is postponed.
So Mr Jones fails to be elected first minister, but will continue to act as FM while he seeks allies.
The Conservatives and UKIP supported moves by Plaid Cymru to give the job to Plaid leader Leanne Wood instead
Welsh Assembly fails to nominate First Minister and is adjourned.
It's like buying a washing machine and forced to buy Daz, when I choose Persil.
One option - as regards ownership - would be to mutualise the Beeb: make it owned by the subscribers. That way, they'd elect the directors and would have even less cause to blame the government.
It'll be alot less if Leanne Wood becomes FM backed by the Conservatives in 2020...
http://img.dooyoo.de/DE_DE/orig/1/4/9/2/2/1492201.jpg
Hence why I would have in this consultation a move towards the future, rather than stick with the outdated model (and one which is starting to fail, let alone 5+ years down the line).
I am not sure where why you are so convinced the resultant fee would have to be twice the current amount, when Sky is already coming under a huge amount of competition from lower cost alternatives that offer huge amounts of content at sub £10 a month.
One could argue that a free BBC could do as Netflix as doing an exploit the global markets properly. One problem BBC would have on that front, iPlayer technology is a bag of spanners. Amazon / Netflix is leagues ahead of it.
President Buhari: yes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index
Should the BBC receive public funding?
If so, how?
My view is that the answers are "yes" and "out of the general taxation".
https://britishcountyflags.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/insert-image-17-north-flag.jpg
A suitable flag for a Hamilton-Lib Dem-Plaid-Tory coalition though. A mess !