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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Post: Summer 2016 might lead to a generational shift

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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,998
    taffys said:

    Walesonline reports that JOnes would have lost the vote if Kirsty Williams of the lib dems had not voted for him..</blockquote

    Hang on - Labour has 29, the Conservatives, UKIP and Plaid have 30. If Kirsty had voted with Labour it would have been 30-30.

    Are we saying one from each side didn't vote for some reason ?

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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    I find it bizarre that the Conservatives should wish to mess with the BBC. It's a much-loved national institution. Sure, it has an irrational charging model but so what? People like the BBC the way it is. If the Conservatives are seen to be trying to damage it they will provoke a tidal wave of hatred, not least from small-c conservatives who would once have been their natural supporters.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2016

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    He will reshuffle to a unity Cabinet, Osborne, Javid and possibly Hammond will make way for the Leave big guns.

    Can someone reconcile for me

    1. Cameron will promote Leavers in a reshuffle
    2. Cameron will be gone 24 hours after the vote

    ?
    No. But different people have different views. We're not all automota
    Scott is.
    That was rather the point of my post! But I think better implied...
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Seriously big commitment

    Jim Pickard
    Electoral Commission figures indicate that @Arron_banks has given £2m and lent £3m to the Brexit cause. Another £3.2m from Peter Hargreaves.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,277

    A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?

    Much as it works today, you don't have to have a tv licence to listen to Radio 4. In fact, the BBC could allow (a limited amount of) advertising on the Radio and make a killing.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,493

    A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?

    Same way as now.

    If they want to run adverts, they should be allowed to but frankly, I think they'd trash their market appeal if they did.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    That's just West Virginia Democratic Primary voters, not all Democrats.

    It was an open Primary.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    murali_s said:

    Usual suspects bashing one of our greatest and loved institutions, the BBC. What is it with the right wing fruitcakes and the BBC?

    Basically they can see what you can't - the institutionalised left-wing bias of journalists in general and BBC political commentators in particular. All you have to do is to listen how they present the news.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Wanderer Dogs would have made a better flag, to be honest.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,493
    murali_s said:

    Usual suspects bashing one of our greatest and loved institutions, the BBC. What is it with the right wing fruitcakes and the BBC?

    How is freeing it from a regulatory and funding straightjacket designed for it in the 1920s 'bashing' it?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,762
    edited May 2016
    stodge said:


    Hang on - Labour has 29, the Conservatives, UKIP and Plaid have 30. If Kirsty had voted with Labour it would have been 30-30.

    Are we saying one from each side didn't vote for some reason ?

    Presiding officer and deputy?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,071
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Wanderer said:
    My foundation is named (in a rather recondite way) for Labrador... my Dad had a mine out there and when he sold his stake and repatriated the money to Britain it clearly had to be named 'Bulldog'.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,775
    edited May 2016
    murali_s said:

    Usual suspects bashing one of our greatest and loved institutions, the BBC. What is it with the right wing fruitcakes and the BBC?

    You seem to miss the point that some of us are making. It is not about bashing the BBC, it is about being realistic that this renewal is suppose to be securing the future of the BBC for another 10 years. Its current model is already creaking, let alone 5+ years down the line.

    The quaint idea of people sitting down a single moving picture box or a massive transistor radio is dead, but the funding model that it was based upon is not enforceable anymore. At the moment, it is the goodwill of people that continue to pay it, but more and more people will just realise that they a) don't need to b) huge amount of alternatives.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Should the Lib Dems throw in their lot with Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and UKIP, North Devon have a handy flag suitable for this unlikely coalition:

    https://britishcountyflags.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/insert-image-17-north-flag.jpg

    Yuk. A vexillologist's worst nightmare.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    tlg86 said:

    A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?

    Much as it works today, you don't have to have a tv licence to listen to Radio 4. In fact, the BBC could allow (a limited amount of) advertising on the Radio and make a killing.
    So the subscribers to the TV channels would pay non-optional surcharge to cover the cost of BBC radio. It probably wouldn't be much and people might go for it but it is a move away from the idea that you pay for what you watch.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    That was rather the point of my post! But I think better implied...

    So the answer to my question is no, none of the Brexiteers can reconcile their wild claims.

    Thanks
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    tlg86 said:

    A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?

    Much as it works today, you don't have to have a tv licence to listen to Radio 4. In fact, the BBC could allow (a limited amount of) advertising on the Radio and make a killing.
    So the subscribers to the TV channels would pay non-optional surcharge to cover the cost of BBC radio. It probably wouldn't be much and people might go for it but it is a move away from the idea that you pay for what you watch.
    Under your subscription model, does the BBC receive public funding or not?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,493
    Alistair said:
    The Conservative chart will look something like a smile (for Holyrood, at least).
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Seriously big commitment

    Jim Pickard Electoral Commission figures indicate that @Arron_banks has given £2m and lent £3m to the Brexit cause. Another £3.2m from Peter Hargreaves.

    Chicken feed!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,277

    tlg86 said:

    A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?

    Much as it works today, you don't have to have a tv licence to listen to Radio 4. In fact, the BBC could allow (a limited amount of) advertising on the Radio and make a killing.
    So the subscribers to the TV channels would pay non-optional surcharge to cover the cost of BBC radio. It probably wouldn't be much and people might go for it but it is a move away from the idea that you pay for what you watch.
    BT and Sky spend my money on lots of stuff that I don't watch!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,762
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?

    Much as it works today, you don't have to have a tv licence to listen to Radio 4. In fact, the BBC could allow (a limited amount of) advertising on the Radio and make a killing.
    So the subscribers to the TV channels would pay non-optional surcharge to cover the cost of BBC radio. It probably wouldn't be much and people might go for it but it is a move away from the idea that you pay for what you watch.
    BT and Sky spend my money on lots of stuff that I don't watch!
    But will you go to jail, go directly to jail (and not collect £200!), if you refuse to pay BT and/or SKY?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Walesonline had a line from the Welsh UKIP leader decision

    'like Leicester sacking Ranieri'

    Quite good.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    tlg86 said:

    A subscription service may work for television how would it work for radio?

    Much as it works today, you don't have to have a tv licence to listen to Radio 4. In fact, the BBC could allow (a limited amount of) advertising on the Radio and make a killing.
    So the subscribers to the TV channels would pay non-optional surcharge to cover the cost of BBC radio. It probably wouldn't be much and people might go for it but it is a move away from the idea that you pay for what you watch.
    Under your subscription model, does the BBC receive public funding or not?
    I am not sure why you are asking me, I don't have any sort of model in mind. Others put forward the idea of moving the BBC to a subscription service, I merely asked about how it would work for funding radio.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,762
    Alistair said:
    Jump from 14% to 22% is hardly boring!
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The presiding officer is overheard asking “What do I do now?”
    http://order-order.com/2016/05/11/leanne-wood-and-carwyn-jones-tied-in-welsh-first-minister-vote/
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:
    The Conservative chart will look something like a smile (for Holyrood, at least).
    Surprisingly no, They must be thanking their lucky stars for both the IndyRef and more importantly that the Fixed Term Parliament Act shifted the Holyrood elections from 2015 to 2016.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    That was rather the point of my post! But I think better implied...

    So the answer to my question is no, none of the Brexiteers can reconcile their wild claims.

    Thanks
    I'm not aware of anyone who has made both claims.

    Different people have different views.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,762
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    That was rather the point of my post! But I think better implied...

    So the answer to my question is no, none of the Brexiteers can reconcile their wild claims.

    Thanks
    Anything like Remainers' wild claims like War and Economic Disaster?
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    MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 139
    Problem is Fallon made a fool of himself with his comments on the Mayoral election in London, Greg Clark was utterly useless on QT two weeks ago and Justine Greening has had a lot of bad press because her department has given money to stupid causes. My hope would be for Dominic Raab if the party wants to take a chance or Gove if it wants to play safe.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    Different people have different views.

    and at least half of them will be really pissed off, if they WIN
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,071
    Who decided to have an assembly with an even number of members?
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @murali_s


    Usual suspects bashing one of our greatest and loved institutions, the BBC. What is it with the right wing fruitcakes and the BBC?'


    What is it with these left wing nutters that hate choice, competition and want to enforce payment for a TV channel through threat of prison ?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,762
    Pulpstar said:

    Who decided to have an assembly with an even number of members?

    Westminster = 650 :lol:
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Pulpstar said:

    Who decided to have an assembly with an even number of members?

    If it had had 61, and additional candidate would have brought down the number voting to 58 anyway.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    U.S. General Election - Ipsos/Reuters Poll

    Clinton 41%
    Trump: 40%
    Undecided: 19%

    Margin of Error +/-3%
    Poll conducted May 6-10
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    The Welsh situation appears not dissimilar to the Roman Empire after Pertinax's murder. Albeit without the continent-spanning civil war, obviously.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Alistair said:
    WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line up
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    Pulpstar said:

    Who decided to have an assembly with an even number of members?

    Westminster = 650 :lol:
    but also has the speaker which votes in the event of a tie...
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Pulpstar said:

    Who decided to have an assembly with an even number of members?

    Westminster = 650 :lol:
    The US senate is required to have an even number of members by the constitution. Dumbass founding fathers.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,038
    Wanderer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who decided to have an assembly with an even number of members?

    Westminster = 650 :lol:
    The US senate is required to have an even number of members by the constitution. Dumbass founding fathers.
    Technically speaking they have an odd number of members.

    The Vice-President is ex-officio President of the Senate, and settles all ties.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Just to be clear. Those people on the Left attacking @LeanneWood for trying to do a deal to become First Minister oppose PR, right?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,038
    Grim Reaper claims another one, Tony Cozier has died, could listen to his voice all day long
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    The Welsh situation appears not dissimilar to the Roman Empire after Pertinax's murder. Albeit without the continent-spanning civil war, obviously.

    Wales doesn't really have a Praetorian Guard does it? Something they need to work on.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. Wanderer, it does amuse me when political journalists refer to loyal followers as a Praetorian Guard, given the Praetorians probably deposed and killed more emperors than they saved.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:
    WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line up
    2015 was the worst ever votes share the Conservatives got in Scotland. Eight hundred votes or so different (400 on swing) and Mundell would have lost his seat making it the worst ever result ever.

    So plenty of scope for improvement.

    Of course, turnout at Holyrood was 55%, turnout at the general election was 71% in Scotland.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Grim Reaper claims another one, Tony Cozier has died, could listen to his voice all day long

    God, so could I. That's such a shame.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,775

    Grim Reaper claims another one, Tony Cozier has died, could listen to his voice all day long

    GR back from his holibobs...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,071
    Has Leanne actually considered how she'll run a Gov't with her kaleidoscope coalition :p ?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,762
    Pulpstar said:

    Has Leanne actually considered how she'll run a Gov't with her kaleidoscope coalition :p ?

    "A kaleidoscope FM of a kaleidoscope nation"
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,998



    Presiding officer and deputy?

    Yes and Kirsty is left either letting in the unholy alliance of Plaid, UKIP and the Conservatives or opting to prolong the chaos in the hope something changes like the UKIP group breaking up.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Interesting article, Mr. Mortimer. I agree May is the value, 8/1 is too long. Fallon at 50/1 may be tradeable but I'm not sure I can see him getting into the final two.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,038
    Pulpstar said:

    Has Leanne actually considered how she'll run a Gov't with her kaleidoscope coalition :p ?

    It would have made the Rainbow coalition mooted in 2010 look stable
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It would have made the Rainbow coalition mooted in 2010 look stable

    The same people now whining about this, were the ones promoting the Rainbow coalition...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,038
    Danny Welbeck out injured for NINE months
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,775
    edited May 2016

    Danny Welbeck out injured for NINE months

    I don't know which England international is more injury prone, Welbeck, Wilshere, or Walcott ....hnourable mentions to Oxlade Chamberlain, Sturridge, .....

    Edit:- Forgot Luke Shaw,
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,071
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:
    WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line up
    2015 was the worst ever votes share the Conservatives got in Scotland. Eight hundred votes or so different (400 on swing) and Mundell would have lost his seat making it the worst ever result ever.

    So plenty of scope for improvement.

    Of course, turnout at Holyrood was 55%, turnout at the general election was 71% in Scotland.
    The SNP have inherited some of Labour's lazy voters, and lost a few in the leafier areas.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,038
    Tokyo Olympics: €1.3m payment to secret account raises questions over 2020 Games

    • Alleged payment believed to be under scrutiny by French police
    • Pressure on IOC to investigate links between Diack regime and Olympic bids

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/may/11/tokyo-olympics-payment-diack-2020-games
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Do you know @Pulpstar (or others) whether the Labyrinthine system in West Virginia (geographic distribution wise) actually resulted in Trump not getting all 34 delegates?

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,775

    Tokyo Olympics: €1.3m payment to secret account raises questions over 2020 Games

    • Alleged payment believed to be under scrutiny by French police
    • Pressure on IOC to investigate links between Diack regime and Olympic bids

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/may/11/tokyo-olympics-payment-diack-2020-games

    Where as they basically couldn't give the 2022 Winter Olymipics away...
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,998
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Just to be clear. Those people on the Left attacking @LeanneWood for trying to do a deal to become First Minister oppose PR, right?

    What's PR got to do, got to do with it ?

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:
    WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line up
    2015 was the worst ever votes share the Conservatives got in Scotland. Eight hundred votes or so different (400 on swing) and Mundell would have lost his seat making it the worst ever result ever.

    So plenty of scope for improvement.

    Of course, turnout at Holyrood was 55%, turnout at the general election was 71% in Scotland.
    The SNP have inherited some of Labour's lazy voters, and lost a few in the leafier areas.
    By gaining Glasgow they've gained the Lazy voters. But in terms of rural areas their vote mostly stayed static, minor increases or decreases in absolute numbers in very safe seats but the boost in turnout from the Tory surge made their vote share go down even as their total votes went up. The only significant vote crash in the NE was where Alex Salmond stepped down.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,071
    edited May 2016

    Do you know @Pulpstar (or others) whether the Labyrinthine system in West Virginia (geographic distribution wise) actually resulted in Trump not getting all 34 delegates?

    Hah ! That's a good question :)

    22 at-large delegates (10 at-large plus 12 bonus) are directly elected statewide. Of these 22 At-Large delegates that will be selected on the statewide ballot not more than 2 may come from the same county and only the 7 top vote-getters from each Congressional District that have been voted on by all Republican primary voters in the state, are elected as Delegates- among the 21 of these 22 not including the delegate-candidate with the most votes statewide; since the top vote-getting At-Large Delegate is immune to geographic restrictions (that is: the delegate-candidate with the most votes is elected outright in any event), he/she will not factor into the geographically-determined counts restricting the other 21 At Large Delegates. Please note that, despite these geographical restrictions, this system does allow, say, a voter in CD 3 to cast his/her vote for At-Large delegate-candidates in CD 1 or CD 2 and vice versa.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    stodge said:


    What's PR got to do, got to do with it ?

    Labour did not win a majority. PR creates coalitions, and situations where parties have to cooperate
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Dr P,

    "So the answer to my question is no, none of the Brexiteers can reconcile their wild claims.

    Thanks"

    Too busy heading for the nuclear fall-out shelters when they win.

    I'd assumed that Cameron would cut out the nonsensical WW3 claims, but no. If you're going to tell a lie, make it a big one. What's the phrase ... jumping the shark?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Pulpstar said:

    Do you know @Pulpstar (or others) whether the Labyrinthine system in West Virginia (geographic distribution wise) actually resulted in Trump not getting all 34 delegates?

    Hah ! That's a good question :)

    22 at-large delegates (10 at-large plus 12 bonus) are directly elected statewide. Of these 22 At-Large delegates that will be selected on the statewide ballot not more than 2 may come from the same county and only the 7 top vote-getters from each Congressional District that have been voted on by all Republican primary voters in the state, are elected as Delegates- among the 21 of these 22 not including the delegate-candidate with the most votes statewide; since the top vote-getting At-Large Delegate is immune to geographic restrictions (that is: the delegate-candidate with the most votes is elected outright in any event), he/she will not factor into the geographically-determined counts restricting the other 21 At Large Delegates. Please note that, despite these geographical restrictions, this system does allow, say, a voter in CD 3 to cast his/her vote for At-Large delegate-candidates in CD 1 or CD 2 and vice versa.
    The forecast had been made that the top 22 delegates, even though all would be Trump, some ( I think it was 7) would be ineligible and effectively pass over to another candidate.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. CD13, or nuking the fridge.

    I fear Cameron has nuked the shark, and made himself look silly.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,071
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:
    WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line up
    2015 was the worst ever votes share the Conservatives got in Scotland. Eight hundred votes or so different (400 on swing) and Mundell would have lost his seat making it the worst ever result ever.

    So plenty of scope for improvement.

    Of course, turnout at Holyrood was 55%, turnout at the general election was 71% in Scotland.
    The SNP have inherited some of Labour's lazy voters, and lost a few in the leafier areas.
    By gaining Glasgow they've gained the Lazy voters. But in terms of rural areas their vote mostly stayed static, minor increases or decreases in absolute numbers in very safe seats but the boost in turnout from the Tory surge made their vote share go down even as their total votes went up. The only significant vote crash in the NE was where Alex Salmond stepped down.
    East Renfrewshire looks like a Tory-SNP marginal in 2020 to me now, for sure.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,145
    edited May 2016
    I'm not sure about Heidi Alexander.

    On several occasions she has been willing to quote faked up statistics from the Despatch Box, *after* they had been shown to be dishonest and/or false.

    One example was the claim that "90% of junior doctors" would leave, after it had been shown to be a voodoo poll from a striking Drs' facebook page.

    The lady is not competent, even at deception.

    The others, maybe, though I took my profit on Jarvis for leader when he declared himself out.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MattW said:

    I'm not sure about Heidi Alexander.

    The lady is not competent, even at deception.

    She has managed to plant Labour firmly on the wrong side of an argument about the NHS.

    That takes some skill
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Excellent thread header well done. Nice to see something that is not either blatantly partisan or sneering. I like partisan views, don't really object to abuse, but that should be reserved for the posts.

    Thank you mortimer.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:
    WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line up
    2015 was the worst ever votes share the Conservatives got in Scotland. Eight hundred votes or so different (400 on swing) and Mundell would have lost his seat making it the worst ever result ever.

    So plenty of scope for improvement.

    Of course, turnout at Holyrood was 55%, turnout at the general election was 71% in Scotland.
    The SNP have inherited some of Labour's lazy voters, and lost a few in the leafier areas.
    By gaining Glasgow they've gained the Lazy voters. But in terms of rural areas their vote mostly stayed static, minor increases or decreases in absolute numbers in very safe seats but the boost in turnout from the Tory surge made their vote share go down even as their total votes went up. The only significant vote crash in the NE was where Alex Salmond stepped down.
    East Renfrewshire looks like a Tory-SNP marginal in 2020 to me now, for sure.
    Tories should look to win the three borders seats and run the SNP close across as much of rural Scotland as possible, in order to frame those seats as Tory v SNP, other parties irrelevant.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited May 2016

    Do you know @Pulpstar (or others) whether the Labyrinthine system in West Virginia (geographic distribution wise) actually resulted in Trump not getting all 34 delegates?

    http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WV-R shows 31 with 3 'available'.

    The other 3 are presumably

    "The 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the West Virginia's Republican Party, will attend the convention, by virtue of their position, bound to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide."
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,245

    The Welsh situation appears not dissimilar to the Roman Empire after Pertinax's murder. Albeit without the continent-spanning civil war, obviously.

    That requires Brexit...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,071
    weejonnie said:

    Do you know @Pulpstar (or others) whether the Labyrinthine system in West Virginia (geographic distribution wise) actually resulted in Trump not getting all 34 delegates?

    http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WV-R shows 31 with 3 'available'.

    The other 3 are presumably

    "The 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the West Virginia's Republican Party, will attend the convention, by virtue of their position, bound to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide."
    If you examine the election vote closely, there is a clear alphabet effect present.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Tokyo Olympics: €1.3m payment to secret account raises questions over 2020 Games

    • Alleged payment believed to be under scrutiny by French police
    • Pressure on IOC to investigate links between Diack regime and Olympic bids

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/may/11/tokyo-olympics-payment-diack-2020-games

    Maybe another Country will have to go on Mr Cameron's little list.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,038
    edited May 2016
    Blimey, Mr Speaker throws PM out of Parliament during a heated debate on the Panama Papers

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-36264089
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,964
    Go Leanne

    shake the place up.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:
    WOw, plenty of scope to bring that blue line up
    2015 was the worst ever votes share the Conservatives got in Scotland. Eight hundred votes or so different (400 on swing) and Mundell would have lost his seat making it the worst ever result ever.

    So plenty of scope for improvement.

    Of course, turnout at Holyrood was 55%, turnout at the general election was 71% in Scotland.
    The SNP have inherited some of Labour's lazy voters, and lost a few in the leafier areas.
    By gaining Glasgow they've gained the Lazy voters. But in terms of rural areas their vote mostly stayed static, minor increases or decreases in absolute numbers in very safe seats but the boost in turnout from the Tory surge made their vote share go down even as their total votes went up. The only significant vote crash in the NE was where Alex Salmond stepped down.
    East Renfrewshire looks like a Tory-SNP marginal in 2020 to me now, for sure.
    Hmmm, I'm wondering if it will be marginal or a easy Con win.

    Already 81.1% turnout so 10% points higher than national turnout so not much scope for a Tory vote surge.

    2015 results
    SNP Kirsten Oswald 23,013
    Labour Jim Murphy 19,295
    Conservative David Montgomery 12,465
    Big gap for Cons to close but that was on the SNP getting 50% of the vote. The equivalent Scottish constituency, Eastwood, doesn't contain Barrhead.

    In East wood the Conservatives went from 33.36% of the vote to 35.7% of the vote, the SNP went from 24.36% to 31.2%. Turnout was up 6% points. LAbour lost only 1500 physical votes but their vote share went from 39.66 to 30.6%. No Lib Dems to speak of.

    Interesting seat for 2020. No idea how to call it.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,964

    Blimey, Mr Speaker throws PM out of Parliament during a heated debate on the Panama Papers

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-36264089

    I wish Bercrow would do the same sometimes.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,071
    @Alistair I think the only (near) certainty is that you can more or less rule Labour out :)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PaulBrandITV: This is quite an interesting argument from @WelshConserv on why they're backing @LeanneWood for FM of Wales https://t.co/5mJNgiPCM0
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. Mark, you clearly don't understand international politics. If we leave the EU, that means global war. Probably nuclear.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,038

    Blimey, Mr Speaker throws PM out of Parliament during a heated debate on the Panama Papers

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-36264089

    I wish Bercrow would do the same sometimes.
    I can't stand John Bercow, honestly in a few years' time we'll be saying

    'Napoleon had a Bercow complex'
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MattW said:

    I'm not sure about Heidi Alexander.

    On several occasions she has been willing to quote faked up statistics from the Despatch Box, *after* they had been shown to be dishonest and/or false.

    One example was the claim that "90% of junior doctors" would leave, after it had been shown to be a voodoo poll from a striking Drs' facebook page.

    The lady is not competent, even at deception.

    The others, maybe, though I took my profit on Jarvis for leader when he declared himself out.

    If using junk statistics is a hanging offence then few politicians or PB posters would be long for this world. Just this week Hunts claim that there was excess stroke mortality associated with weekend admissions was shown to be untrue.

    Heidi Alexander has been one of Corbyns more effective frontbenchers, both in the House and has managed to not put her foot in her mouth when in front of the media. There are lots of worse choices!

    You may not like her position on the strikes, but polling shows the public is on the junior docs side.

    I do not know if she has leadrrship ambitions, but not a bad longshot if looking for a left wing next generation leader who does not have a lot of baggage.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pulpstar said:

    weejonnie said:

    Do you know @Pulpstar (or others) whether the Labyrinthine system in West Virginia (geographic distribution wise) actually resulted in Trump not getting all 34 delegates?

    http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WV-R shows 31 with 3 'available'.

    The other 3 are presumably

    "The 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the West Virginia's Republican Party, will attend the convention, by virtue of their position, bound to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide."
    If you examine the election vote closely, there is a clear alphabet effect present.
    Certainly looks like it. Maybe I should change my name to Aaron Aaranovitch.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,998
    Scott_P said:

    stodge said:


    What's PR got to do, got to do with it ?

    Labour did not win a majority. PR creates coalitions, and situations where parties have to cooperate
    So, just as happened at Westminster in 2010 when the Conservatives didn't win a majority and "had to cooperate" with the Liberal Democrats,

    The Tories might regret being junior partner in a Plaid led Welsh Government.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    @Alistair I think the only (near) certainty is that you can more or less rule Labour out :)

    That's 19000 votes you have to account for then. Even allowing for a 3000 voter turnout surge for the Conservatives if the SNP are running at 50% national polling in 2020 (Big If) then the Cons need to get 10000 Lab supporters to switch to them without any Lab leakage to the SNP. Big ask.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,038
    All those criticising Cameron must be feeling a bit stupid right now

    https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/730420137170485248
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,245
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    He will reshuffle to a unity Cabinet, Osborne, Javid and possibly Hammond will make way for the Leave big guns.

    Can someone reconcile for me

    1. Cameron will promote Leavers in a reshuffle
    2. Cameron will be gone 24 hours after the vote

    ?
    It's gonna be a helluva day....
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590

    Problem is Fallon made a fool of himself with his comments on the Mayoral election in London, Greg Clark was utterly useless on QT two weeks ago and Justine Greening has had a lot of bad press because her department has given money to stupid causes. My hope would be for Dominic Raab if the party wants to take a chance or Gove if it wants to play safe.

    I absolutely agree about Dominic Raab. He gave another very good performance on Daily Politics the other day.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,762

    All those criticising Cameron must be feeling a bit stupid right now

    https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/730420137170485248

    Yebbut the "two most corrupt" nations are N. Korea and Somalia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,071
    Looks like Labour will have to have a chat with Plaid, give them some concessions or some such and then get Jones elected. If Labour withdraw Carwyn and actually let Wood get elected, I can't see the whole shebang lasting another 4 weeks let alone 4 years !
This discussion has been closed.