politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A BREXIT indicator? UKIP’s National Equivalent Vote share d

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

The only conclusion I can draw from Theresa May's appointment of a spokesman is that she thinks there is a fair chance of a leadership contest this year.

That might not necessarily require a Leave vote. But, if it is Leave, Theresa has laid a fair eurosceptic foundation for a run by her declaration she wishes to withdraw from the ECHR and non well-disguised statement that she would have got a better deal than Cameron, and made Britain a leader in Europe, and therefore should be trusted with the Brexit negotiations. Plus Brexit allows her to be even more hawkish on immigration.

Clever Theresa.

Well it's not up there with installing extra phone lines.

What's the modern day equivalent? Creating a twitter account?

Setting up a TheresaMay4Leader website?

TheresaMay4Leader.com - yours for $9.99

https://secure.domain.com/register/domains/?dom_lookup=theresamay4leader.com&flowid=25&privacy_all=2&domainPrivacyName=Domain Privacy

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

The only conclusion I can draw from Theresa May's appointment of a spokesman is that she thinks there is a fair chance of a leadership contest this year.

That might not necessarily require a Leave vote. But, if it is Leave, Theresa has laid a fair eurosceptic foundation for a run by her declaration she wishes to withdraw from the ECHR and non well-disguised statement that she would have got a better deal than Cameron, and made Britain a leader in Europe, and therefore should be trusted with the Brexit negotiations. Plus Brexit allows her to be even more hawkish on immigration.

Clever Theresa.

Well it's not up there with installing extra phone lines.

What's the modern day equivalent? Creating a twitter account?

Setting up a TheresaMay4Leader website?

TheresaMay4Leader.com - yours for $9.99

https://secure.domain.com/register/domains/?dom_lookup=theresamay4leader.com&flowid=25&privacy_all=2&domainPrivacyName=Domain Privacy

They'd make damn sure they spell her name right.

Teresa May is a well know porn star, that's a Google search disaster waiting to happen for those of us who use work laptops and iPad on a daily basis.

Today's contretemps between Cameron and Boris shows how utterly stupid this referendum is.

We should have had a referendum not on "in" or "out" but on a treaty renegotiation, which would have meant a "no" would not have been to leave the EU but to say "too far, Europe - now give us a good deal to stay in". Blair denied us that on Lisbon and until the next opportunity came along, Cameron should have stuck to his guns.

What we're dealing with now is an utter farce, and I think goes to the crux of why I still can't reconcile in my mind the impossible decision this particular "pro Europe but anti the current set-up" individual has to make on 23rd June. I'm sure millions of others are like me, probably forced to vote Remain reluctantly and with great reservations.

>>>Re TonyE's post on last thread re using the EEA option as a staging post to a full exit later:


That does appeal to my thinking too.

But is that on offer? How do we know the Government or whichever Government replaces it will go down that path? Would it be achievable anyway?

All reasons why the safe route really feels like it has to be to stay IN the EU for the time being until a better deal or a clear exit path emerges.

It's like being trapped in a remote cottage out in the wilds in a blizzard. You want to get out of there, of course, but it's a big and possibly tragic step to make a break for it whilst the storm continues and no clear path is visible, you'd tend to want to stay there in the hope a clearer option emerges....

Bob__Sykes said:

>>>Re TonyE's post on last thread re using the EEA option as a staging post to a full exit later:


That does appeal to my thinking too.

But is that on offer? How do we know the Government or whichever Government replaces it will go down that path? Would it be achievable anyway?

All reasons why the safe route really feels like it has to be to stay IN the EU for the time being until a better deal or a clear exit path emerges.

It's like being trapped in a remote cottage out in the wilds in a blizzard. You want to get out of there, of course, but it's a big and possibly tragic step to make a break for it whilst the storm continues and no clear path is visible, you'd tend to want to stay there in the hope a clearer option emerges....

Bob -

But is that on offer? How do we know the Government or whichever Government replaces it will go down that path? Would it be achievable anyway?

Yes, yes and yes - but only if we vote for it. Starting on June 23. Otherwise it won't happen.

I suppose you can either grasp at straws or look at the trend in UK opinion polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

weejonnie said:

I suppose you can either grasp at straws or look at the trend in UK opinion polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Opinion polls or real votes ?

Though choice.

@MichaelPDeacon: Has the EU brought peace to Europe? Left: Boris Johnson today. Right: Boris Johnson in 2014 https://t.co/szayjcol55

Wanderer said:

I've been wondering about this. I certainly expected a stronger showing from UKIP in England and also for Peter Whittle to challenge for third place in London.

So did I

Although they aren't perfect, Whittle was ahead of Berry in every single poll !

Expensive

TheScreamingEagles said:

UKIP on the slide isn't surprising the way Farage has acted since he lost South Thanet.

His treatment of Douglas Carswell has been a disgrace. Carswell must regret defecting to UKIP and helping to contribute to Mark Reckless losing his seat at Westminster.

Yes. Farage has acted appallingly over the last year.

By contrast, the Tories now offer a serious and credible exit route out of the EU, and UK independence, in a way UKIP never could.

The difference now seems to be social conservatism, and tightness on immigration.

chestnut said:

UKIP made a net gain of 26 seats, didn't they?

Hardly earth shattering but better than losing them, while a repeat of the 2015 vote share implies that 12-13% of the national electorate is locked in to UK independence.

Overall, Leave need something like 70% of the right wing vote (Con/UKIP) plus 30% of the left on an assumption of uniform turnout comparable to 2015.

UKIP also outpolled the Lib Dems in the PCC elections (which took place throughout England and Wales) by 450,000.

Bob__Sykes said:

>>>Re TonyE's post on last thread re using the EEA option as a staging post to a full exit later:


That does appeal to my thinking too.

But is that on offer? How do we know the Government or whichever Government replaces it will go down that path? Would it be achievable anyway?

All reasons why the safe route really feels like it has to be to stay IN the EU for the time being until a better deal or a clear exit path emerges.

It's like being trapped in a remote cottage out in the wilds in a blizzard. You want to get out of there, of course, but it's a big and possibly tragic step to make a break for it whilst the storm continues and no clear path is visible, you'd tend to want to stay there in the hope a clearer option emerges....

Or, you stay in the cottage, the break in the weather never comes and you slowly die of starvation.

runnymede said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Today's contretemps between Cameron and Boris shows how utterly stupid this referendum is.

We should have had a referendum not on "in" or "out" but on a treaty renegotiation, which would have meant a "no" would not have been to leave the EU but to say "too far, Europe - now give us a good deal to stay in". Blair denied us that on Lisbon and until the next opportunity came along, Cameron should have stuck to his guns.

What we're dealing with now is an utter farce, and I think goes to the crux of why I still can't reconcile in my mind the impossible decision this particular "pro Europe but anti the current set-up" individual has to make on 23rd June. I'm sure millions of others are like me, probably forced to vote Remain reluctantly and with great reservations.

Er Bob that is why Cameron and his Lib Dem friends wanted to frame the issue in this way.

A referendum on a 'new deal, EU has gone too far' would see 'new deal' win overwhelmingly and the government would then have to negotiate - seriously - a deal which would reduce our 'membership' to a vestigial one or end up being an EFTA-style arrangement.

That isn't the outcome they want - hence framing things as a binary choice to try to force wobblers into their tent.

We vote LEAVE on June 23 and then we do a new deal. Which our EU neighbours will also want.

It really is that simple.

Were that it was. For a start, a vote for Leave means farewell Cameron. I cannot logically see how he can remain, and negotiate in good faith for something he doesn't want. He'll walk.

So who then? Other than Boris, and I happen to think he's a bit of a chump all told, there is absolutely no-one suitably high profile enough within Tory ranks to take on the mantle of PM and win in 2020, against whoever Labour replaces Corbyn with in the end. Stephen Crabb or Priti Patel might be sufficiently "new broom" but neither is ready for the top job yet in 2016. So assuming Boris doesn't have sufficient backbench support, the members will have probably Osborne and Gove foisted on them - what a poisoned chalice of a choice that is! Neither could win an election - both would be IDS mark 2's, the Tory Party talking only to itself.

And you might well say "ffs Bob, this is about the EU, to hell with the Tory Party problems", but I am a Tory voter and it does matter what happens to Cameron and the Tory Party in the foreseeable future. When you're wavering over a finely-balanced decision of such import, it does matter. And so it's not "really that simple"!

UKIP vs Lib Dems

Lib Dems behind UKIP and 5th in Wales and 5th in London

Lib Dems 3rd and ahead of UKIP in the English council elections mainly metropolitan centres and some district councils. Lib Dems 5th in Scotland but ahead of UKIP.

Theuniondivvie said:

Gove 'bravely' asserting Scotland will vote Leave.
Also the EU encourages Scottish nationalism apparently. Govey a bawhair away from saying Brexit will kill nationalism stone dead.

'Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr show yesterday, the Edinburgh-born Tory MP said: "When we vote to leave I think a majority of people in Scotland will also vote to leave as well. It will be clear that having voted to leave one union the last thing the people of Scotland will want to do is to break up another. If we vote to leave then I think the Union will be stronger. Scottish nationalism has grown since we entered the European Union."'

http://tinyurl.com/zj7jpar

Scotland won't vote leave - it values its freebies too much - and has had very little downside from the excessive immigration that England has had.

Bob__Sykes said:

runnymede said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Today's contretemps between Cameron and Boris shows how utterly stupid this referendum is.

We should have had a referendum not on "in" or "out" but on a treaty renegotiation, which would have meant a "no" would not have been to leave the EU but to say "too far, Europe - now give us a good deal to stay in". Blair denied us that on Lisbon and until the next opportunity came along, Cameron should have stuck to his guns.

What we're dealing with now is an utter farce, and I think goes to the crux of why I still can't reconcile in my mind the impossible decision this particular "pro Europe but anti the current set-up" individual has to make on 23rd June. I'm sure millions of others are like me, probably forced to vote Remain reluctantly and with great reservations.

Er Bob that is why Cameron and his Lib Dem friends wanted to frame the issue in this way.

A referendum on a 'new deal, EU has gone too far' would see 'new deal' win overwhelmingly and the government would then have to negotiate - seriously - a deal which would reduce our 'membership' to a vestigial one or end up being an EFTA-style arrangement.

That isn't the outcome they want - hence framing things as a binary choice to try to force wobblers into their tent.

We vote LEAVE on June 23 and then we do a new deal. Which our EU neighbours will also want.

It really is that simple.

Were that it was. For a start, a vote for Leave means farewell Cameron. I cannot logically see how he can remain, and negotiate in good faith for something he doesn't want. He'll walk.

So who then? Other than Boris, and I happen to think he's a bit of a chump all told, there is absolutely no-one suitably high profile enough within Tory ranks to take on the mantle of PM and win in 2020, against whoever Labour replaces Corbyn with in the end. Stephen Crabb or Priti Patel might be sufficiently "new broom" but neither is ready for the top job yet in 2016. So assuming Boris doesn't have sufficient backbench support, the members will have probably Osborne and Gove foisted on them - what a poisoned chalice of a choice that is! Neither could win an election - both would be IDS mark 2's, the Tory Party talking only to itself.

And you might well say "ffs Bob, this is about the EU, to hell with the Tory Party problems", but I am a Tory voter and it does matter what happens to Cameron and the Tory Party in the foreseeable future. When you're wavering over a finely-balanced decision of such import, it does matter. And so it's not "really that simple"!

What a strange post Bob. I thought we were discussing the UK's exit strategy from the EU but you manage to get on to the topic of the electoral interests of the Tories, wittering on about personalities.

MikeSmithson said:

weejonnie said:

I suppose you can either grasp at straws or look at the trend in UK opinion polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

So UKIP underperformed against their polls. Another sign of decline.

I might be clutching at straws, but perhaps we should give the electorate a bit of credit for being nuanced in their voting habits. I'm sure they have some committed councillors, but the main concerns of Ukip are at the national level. The Lib Dems, by contrast, do the local very well and have built a number of locations where they are very strong.

Whatever the situation, I'm not sure I'd read too much into Ukip's performance with respect to the EU referendum.

Mr. Royale, a ship in a harbour is safe. But that is not what ships are for.

London elections claim another scalp:

Barnet chief leaves after vote blunder

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36249926

TheScreamingEagles said:

weejonnie said:

I suppose you can either grasp at straws or look at the trend in UK opinion polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Opinion polls or real votes ?

Though choice.

The real votes have to be for meaningful candidates. What prospectus was UKIP putting forward for the local elections? If you vote UKIP, what do you get?

The local elections really weren't UKIP's natural arena and, conversely, were that of the lib Dems. The flip side would be to look at the Euro-election, where UKIP finished first nationally and the Lib Dems were reduced to 1 MEP. Both are by definition representative, the question is, 'of what?'.

http://order-order.com/2016/05/09/shock-study-shows-journalists-twice-as-likely-to-be-lefties/

In other news the BBC employs more than 2,000 journalists.

Are we going for the most metaphors in a single thread record?

weejonnie said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Gove 'bravely' asserting Scotland will vote Leave.
Also the EU encourages Scottish nationalism apparently. Govey a bawhair away from saying Brexit will kill nationalism stone dead.

'Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr show yesterday, the Edinburgh-born Tory MP said: "When we vote to leave I think a majority of people in Scotland will also vote to leave as well. It will be clear that having voted to leave one union the last thing the people of Scotland will want to do is to break up another. If we vote to leave then I think the Union will be stronger. Scottish nationalism has grown since we entered the European Union."'

http://tinyurl.com/zj7jpar

Scotland won't vote leave - it values its freebies too much - and has had very little downside from the excessive immigration that England has had.

Always good to get the 'deep' insights from down south.
Must be galling for you that England repeatedly elects governments that have encouraged excessive immigration.

It would be interesting to see if the UK would vote to join the EU now, if we had rejected the offer in 1975

Bob__Sykes said:

All reasons why the safe route really feels like it has to be to stay IN the EU for the time being until a better deal or a clear exit path emerges.

Yes, if the Leavers are correct that a block like the EU is so last century and will become increasingly irrelevant as things become more harmonised at a global level, then by the same logic leaving will become progressively easier and less disruptive should it become necessary for any reason. There's no urgency to leave now.

Left wing mag actually complains about BBC prog dominated by Guardian/Observer.

http://www.newstatesman.com/culture/tv-radio/2016/05/there-guardian-bias-radio-4s-broadcasting-house-programme

Bob__Sykes said:

>>>Re TonyE's post on last thread re using the EEA option as a staging post to a full exit later:


That does appeal to my thinking too.

But is that on offer? How do we know the Government or whichever Government replaces it will go down that path? Would it be achievable anyway?

All reasons why the safe route really feels like it has to be to stay IN the EU for the time being until a better deal or a clear exit path emerges.

It's like being trapped in a remote cottage out in the wilds in a blizzard. You want to get out of there, of course, but it's a big and possibly tragic step to make a break for it whilst the storm continues and no clear path is visible, you'd tend to want to stay there in the hope a clearer option emerges....

Bob, the direction of travel for global markets is to look to sector by sector agreement on conformity and regulations. We have had this for years with some sectors such as Shipping (IMO) and with auto manufacturers (WP.29). This will be the way of trade liberalisation in the future. With TTIP looking now set to fail, the WTO's Non Tariff Barriers treaty will become more prevalent.

As for breaking away from EEA altogether, I don't think it will happen in a hurry, and the nature of it will depend on how much British re -entry into EFTA helps to drive that as the forum for hosting and developing sectoral agreement. I'm quite optimistic about that.

Remember that its the USA that tends to sit outside the sectoral agreements, jealously protective of its own manufacturing and agricultural base. TTIP was an attempt by the USA to grab a huge chunk of regulatory power by making agreements that they felt other would then have to climb on the back of, Obama actually said this is a speech himself - that he didn't want the rest of the world to be making the rules for trade, they should follow American rules.

I rather disagree with him. Eventually they will have to co-operate in each sector and get more involved with the individual agreements that will conform to WTO NTB.

@faisalislam: ex Polish Foreign minister Radek Sikorski, friend of BoJo says Ukraine views "disturbing" asks him to reject Putin:
https://t.co/vGEgBQ168m

Richard_Nabavi said:

Indigo said:

Please do tell us which member of the leave camp will the Prime Minister of the UK after the referendum. That well known Leaver Mrs May perhaps. You and Meeks continue with this disingenuous crap of conflating the Leave campaign members with the government of the UK, it's very silly.

Whoever is PM will carry out the wishes of voters. Those wishes, in the event of a Leave result, will 100% unambiguously have been for us to leave the EU, including leaving the arrangements for freedom of movement. That is just about the only thing which is clear - almost very single prominent Leave campaigner, the official campaign, UKIP, GO, all agree on that. There's really no argument about it: that is what voters will have voted for, and there's zero chance that any mainstream politician in going to simply ignore the will of the electorate if that's what they choose. It would be a gross betrayal to do so.

What's more, it's only here on PB that anyone argues otherwise. It's really odd.

I'm very happy to take money of anyone who is both trustworthy and deluded enough to think I'm wrong (see previous thread) - please form an orderly queue.

It would be a pointless exercise - Gove has ensured that remain will win.

Sean_F said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Just out of interest how many of the available seats did UKIP stand in?

Surely the PCC elections are a better sign of how the UKIP vote is holding up.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Just out of interest how many of the available seats did UKIP stand in?

Surely the PCC elections are a better sign of how the UKIP vote is holding up.

UKIP contested about half the council seats that came up.

In the PCC's they contested 34 out of 40, winning 14% of the overall vote, about 1.2m votes.

On the welsh assembly,at least the leader of the ukip contingent will have a party to lead not like the leader of the lib Dems who will be leading a party of one,herself

https://twitter.com/WhiteWednesday/status/729580140473294848

runnymede said:

NickPalmer said:

Wanderer said:

I've been wondering about this. I certainly expected a stronger showing from UKIP in England and also for Peter Whittle to challenge for third place in London.

How to interpret it though? Is it a straw in the wind for the referendum or is it just that UKIP itself is increasingly hapless and disorganised?

He was out-bonkered by two guys even further to the right, who campaigned almost exclusively on immigration and made him look like a boring centrist. Add the BNP and Britain First guys to UKIP and they hit 5.3% together, putting them above the LibDems and just behind the Greens. But in fairness you have to say that some people who voted UKIP would not have touched them if they'd been in bed with Britain First.

Were they any more bonkers than the former Labour Mayor of London, Nick?

He was ok before he went a little bit mad. Or was that Hitler?

Theuniondivvie said:

weejonnie said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Gove 'bravely' asserting Scotland will vote Leave.
Also the EU encourages Scottish nationalism apparently. Govey a bawhair away from saying Brexit will kill nationalism stone dead.

'Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr show yesterday, the Edinburgh-born Tory MP said: "When we vote to leave I think a majority of people in Scotland will also vote to leave as well. It will be clear that having voted to leave one union the last thing the people of Scotland will want to do is to break up another. If we vote to leave then I think the Union will be stronger. Scottish nationalism has grown since we entered the European Union."'

http://tinyurl.com/zj7jpar

Scotland won't vote leave - it values its freebies too much - and has had very little downside from the excessive immigration that England has had.

Always good to get the 'deep' insights from down south.
Must be galling for you that England repeatedly elects governments that have encouraged excessive immigration.

I haven't voted for one, given a viable alternative - and I accept the will of the majority - even if I think they are bonkers. (Unlike the left who immediately respond by the call to the barricades and political violence).

runnymede said:

NickPalmer said:

Wanderer said:

I've been wondering about this. I certainly expected a stronger showing from UKIP in England and also for Peter Whittle to challenge for third place in London.

How to interpret it though? Is it a straw in the wind for the referendum or is it just that UKIP itself is increasingly hapless and disorganised?

He was out-bonkered by two guys even further to the right, who campaigned almost exclusively on immigration and made him look like a boring centrist. Add the BNP and Britain First guys to UKIP and they hit 5.3% together, putting them above the LibDems and just behind the Greens. But in fairness you have to say that some people who voted UKIP would not have touched them if they'd been in bed with Britain First.

Were they any more bonkers than the former Labour Mayor of London, Nick?

Fwiw I would say the BNP and Britain First are more bonkers than Ken. (I'm sure he'd be delighted to be discussed in such terms.)

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/729669888487337984

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/729669888487337984

Do you not think that by attempting to sign an agreement for co-operation with a state that housed the Russian Warm Water fleet, the EU wasn't seriously tweaking Russia's nose?

Indigo said:

TonyE said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Indigo said:

Please do tell us which member of the leave camp will the Prime Minister of the UK after the referendum. That well known Leaver Mrs May perhaps. You and Meeks continue with this disingenuous crap of conflating the Leave campaign members with the government of the UK, it's very silly.

Whoever is PM will carry out the wishes of voters. Those wishes, in the event of a Leave result, will 100% unambiguously have been for us to leave the EU, including leaving the arrangements for freedom of movement. That is just about the only thing which is clear - almost very single prominent Leave campaigner, the official campaign, UKIP, GO, all agree on that. There's really no argument about it: that is what voters will have voted for, and there's zero chance that any mainstream politician in going to simply ignore the will of the electorate if that's what they choose. It would be a gross betrayal to do so.

What's more, it's only here on PB that anyone argues otherwise. It's really odd.

I'm very happy to take money of anyone who is both trustworthy and deluded enough to think I'm wrong (see previous thread) - please form an orderly queue.

It would be a pointless exercise - Gove has ensured that remain will win.

Gove had no choice. He was choosing between going full leave and annoying a relatively few free trade libertarians such as yourself, Mr Tyndall and Mr 1000, or going EEA/EFTA and annoying all the kippers, and pretty much all the WWC leaver who between them number 8-10 million. If the WWC end of the franchise decided that not getting what they wanted on immigration meant that Leave wasnt worth all the other risks, then the leave campaign was dead.

So you think by offering EEA/EFTA as an interim then all the Kippers would simply vote Remain? I don't agree - I think they would still turn out for the last opportunity they will ever get to leave the EU.

FrancisUrquhart said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-36213588

They fell for one of the oldest scams in the book.

Naïve lefties.

MarkHopkins said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/729675436314263552

Still waiting for that obamarama boost...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting Boris is in trouble with the Foreign Ministers of Poland and Sweden for saying the EU were at fault for Ukraine, following similar accusations by Farage and Le Pen, and siding with Putin

Do you honestly believe Boris Johnson, a man who has fought and won elections in city like London, is in any way 'siding with Putin'. That is nonsense.

Indigo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarkHopkins said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/729675436314263552

Still waiting for that obamarama boost...

You do have to wonder why the polls are so static. Are they asking the same people or has the issue not cut through yet

Or have the vast majority of people made up their minds (possibly a long time ago) and are not interested in, or reacting to the propaganda press releases of either side.

Maybe