politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The IN lead drops by 4% in the first published poll since t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The IN lead drops by 4% in the first published poll since the Obama intervention
The OUT team will be absolutely delighted with today’s ORB phone poll in the Telegraph which sees last week’s 9% IN lead drop to just five. Whether this is the start of a trend or no we don’t know. In March ORB produced numbers which were out of line with other surveys.
Comments
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Relax everybody. They're just POLLS.0
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Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/361364800 -
I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.0
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For the last few days we have been told again and again how the Leave campaign were idiots and Boris Johnson was a clown who did not know when to stop digging. Now we can see that Obama's intervention was disliked and the polls moving towards Leave. We now need only await the EU true believers telling us that this is actually good for Remain and they knew this all along.
Perhaps Remain need to consider that British voters can think for themselves. To them, it's not a matter of being told what to do by foreign leaders, strange a concept as that is to EU fanboys. As a hint, the "won't someone think of the children" is a dud too.0 -
Considering Leave have had the kitchen sink from remain in the couple of weeks....goodness.0
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Obama was never going to convince convinced leavers. But if he has made Remainers more likely to vote he will have done his job.0
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I'm intrigued by the way ORB gets such a massive difference in DK/WS compared to other pollsters.
Does anybody know why this is?0 -
what if he switched remainers to leave.....SouthamObserver said:Obama was never going to convince convinced leavers. But if he has made Remainers more likely to vote he will have done his job.
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The ORB Remain percentage looks to be pretty much where it has been for the last month or so.nunu said:
what if he switched remainers to leave.....SouthamObserver said:Obama was never going to convince convinced leavers. But if he has made Remainers more likely to vote he will have done his job.
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fpt re sovereignty.
If the people of the UK want to leave the EU now, or every five years from 2020, they can do so.0 -
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event?id=27538434
Trump unbackable in every single one of tonight's primaries.
Trump vs 50% in Conneticut and Maryland's CDs near DC are the ones to watch tonight.
Delaware and Rhode Island could both be over 60% for Trump.0 -
The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.
This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.0 -
I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.runnymede said:
The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.
This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.0 -
Yes, I agree. I think on the whole it's what the public want. The problem is, it is not what our politicians want.rcs1000 said:
I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.runnymede said:
The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.
This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.0 -
Not long now until the whole of Liverpool stops working (or at least turns off Jeremy Kyle and puts on BBC News) and the rest of the day will be dominated by one story.0
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Absolutely, but I guess the EU are terrified of a snowball effect. I;ve read that Sweden may look to jump ship if the UK does....Denmark...maybe Holland....rcs1000 said:
I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.runnymede said:
The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.
This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.0 -
Have you considered the swing voters in the middle?SouthamObserver said:Obama was never going to convince convinced leavers. But if he has made Remainers more likely to vote he will have done his job.
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I'd be delighted to stay in the EU as a second class member in some sort of affiliate structure, not fully bound by the core but able to trade.
Is this realistically still achievable if we get a very narrow Remain? Or will we simply get absorbed into the Borg Collective over time?0 -
The Dutch are very keen on the Euro (something like 3:1 agree with the "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands, including more than half of all PVV voters!), so I suspect they won't jump.taffys said:
Absolutely, but I guess the EU are terrified of a snowball effect. I;ve read that Sweden may look to jump ship if the UK does....Denmark...maybe Holland....rcs1000 said:
I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.runnymede said:
The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.
This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.
But I could definitely see Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and even Poland jump.0 -
I think there is a 'conspiracy' by hardcore Remainers to keep EEA off the table, because it is recognised how popular that might be with the bulk of the "not keen on the EU, but quite keen to remain good relationships with our neighbours" crowd.runnymede said:
Yes, I agree. I think on the whole it's what the public want. The problem is, it is not what our politicians want.rcs1000 said:
I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.runnymede said:
The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.
This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.0 -
With free movement of people?rcs1000 said:
I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.runnymede said:
The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.
This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.0 -
ORB seem to get very low don't knows and a high leave.0
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We won't be forced to join the Euro, but the stresses between a Eurozone that continues to integrate and the rest will continue to grow. I think both us, and the Eurozone, will regret not putting together a more sensible series of reforms.Patrick said:I'd be delighted to stay in the EU as a second class member in some sort of affiliate structure, not fully bound by the core but able to trade.
Is this realistically still achievable if we get a very narrow Remain? Or will we simply get absorbed into the Borg Collective over time?0 -
If there was a group of non-aligned states with the same sort of deal, Britain would be its natural leader - something else I have a feeling the EU wants to avoid. (and America, for that matter).rcs1000 said:
The Dutch are very keen on the Euro (something like 3:1 agree with the "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands, including more than half of all PVV voters!), so I suspect they won't jump.taffys said:
Absolutely, but I guess the EU are terrified of a snowball effect. I;ve read that Sweden may look to jump ship if the UK does....Denmark...maybe Holland....rcs1000 said:
I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.runnymede said:
The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.
This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.
But I could definitely see Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and even Poland jump.0 -
There are varying degrees of free movement, and it's perfectly possible to substantially limit immigration. What it's not possible to do is implement a quota based system.FrankBooth said:
With free movement of people?rcs1000 said:
I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.runnymede said:
The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.
This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.
(Of course, from an economics perspective it's important to remember that tariffs are much less economically distorting than quotas.)0 -
Interesting poll. Not sure how much we should all trust polls, but it's fair to say that the PM's actions over the past few weeks are not going down well with a lot of his own party's members and supporters.0
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Fully agree that the Euro is going to be the deal breaker. Some countries like us will never agree to join and the EZ members are in Hotel California. If Brussels is half sensible (so a major caveat right there!) they'll find a workable EZ/non-EZ arrangement. Or the non-EZ countries will ultimately go.rcs1000 said:
We won't be forced to join the Euro, but the stresses between a Eurozone that continues to integrate and the rest will continue to grow. I think both us, and the Eurozone, will regret not putting together a more sensible series of reforms.Patrick said:I'd be delighted to stay in the EU as a second class member in some sort of affiliate structure, not fully bound by the core but able to trade.
Is this realistically still achievable if we get a very narrow Remain? Or will we simply get absorbed into the Borg Collective over time?0 -
A 4% shift is only margin or error, and we need to see other polls before coming to judgement.
However, there is polling evidence that many voters are unhappy at Obama's intervention.0 -
I agree it would be hard for us to be forced into the euro, though I am pretty sure in the event of REMAIN this issue will surface again in 5-10 years.rcs1000 said:
We won't be forced to join the Euro, but the stresses between a Eurozone that continues to integrate and the rest will continue to grow. I think both us, and the Eurozone, will regret not putting together a more sensible series of reforms.Patrick said:I'd be delighted to stay in the EU as a second class member in some sort of affiliate structure, not fully bound by the core but able to trade.
Is this realistically still achievable if we get a very narrow Remain? Or will we simply get absorbed into the Borg Collective over time?
Of more concern for me is that the EU is also advancing on other fronts, in particular justice and home affairs and defence and foreign affairs, which have the capacity to cause a lot of strains over the medium term. And where our government seems unwilling at present to resist.0 -
Quite. Anything about the EU will be a very distant third on the news today, behind the Hillsborough verdicts and the doctors' strike.FrancisUrquhart said:Not long now until the whole of Liverpool stops working (or at least turns off Jeremy Kyle and puts on BBC News) and the rest of the day will be dominated by one story.
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What is ORB's domestic record like.
They haven't exactly covered themselves in glory in the US race where they had Trump ahead of Cruz in Wisconsin.0 -
http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/157363/labour-mp-naz-shah-backed-plan-relocate-israelis-america
This is rather inflammatory.0 -
Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.logical_song said:Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/361364800 -
Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.Sandpit said:
Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.logical_song said:Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/361364800 -
With Theresa as PM we will strongly resistrunnymede said:
I agree it would be hard for us to be forced into the euro, though I am pretty sure in the event of REMAIN this issue will surface again in 5-10 years.rcs1000 said:
We won't be forced to join the Euro, but the stresses between a Eurozone that continues to integrate and the rest will continue to grow. I think both us, and the Eurozone, will regret not putting together a more sensible series of reforms.Patrick said:I'd be delighted to stay in the EU as a second class member in some sort of affiliate structure, not fully bound by the core but able to trade.
Is this realistically still achievable if we get a very narrow Remain? Or will we simply get absorbed into the Borg Collective over time?
Of more concern for me is that the EU is also advancing on other fronts, in particular justice and home affairs and defence and foreign affairs, which have the capacity to cause a lot of strains over the medium term. And where our government seems unwilling at present to resist.
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It's never too late. If reform to deal with the Eurozone/non-Eurozone issue becomes more pressing the British government is not going to say, "Sorry our people voted for the status quo."rcs1000 said:
We won't be forced to join the Euro, but the stresses between a Eurozone that continues to integrate and the rest will continue to grow. I think both us, and the Eurozone, will regret not putting together a more sensible series of reforms.
Personally I suspect that there will be much less pressure for the Eurozone to integrate quickly than most assume. Arguably the Euro even makes institutional integration less pressing because it's such an effective straight-jacket to force member states to behave fiscally.0 -
"Big league"logical_song said:Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480
I see the campaign has gone full Miliband with Trump attacking Kasich's eating habits.0 -
Wise words from Sir Lynton Crosby0
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I'm still struggling with 3% don't knows, won't says. Does anybody really believe that only one in thirty three people has not yet made up their mind?0
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Good comments from @MaxPB and @rcs1000 on the last thread about the appetite within the EU for the TTIP trade deal if the UK was to leave - leaving Germany isolated in favour of the deal while most of the rest of the EU with don't care or are opposed. Might go some way to explaining Obama's comments last week.0
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We're good like that we kidnapped and replaced Gove's speech writers and since then they do our bidding.rcs1000 said:
I think there is a 'conspiracy' by hardcore Remainers to keep EEA off the table, because it is recognised how popular that might be with the bulk of the "not keen on the EU, but quite keen to remain good relationships with our neighbours" crowd.runnymede said:
Yes, I agree. I think on the whole it's what the public want. The problem is, it is not what our politicians want.rcs1000 said:
I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.runnymede said:
The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.
This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.
*cackle*0 -
Three months before the last general election, 50% of people hadn't made their mind uprcs1000 said:I'm still struggling with 3% don't knows, won't says. Does anybody really believe that only one in thirty three people has not yet made up their mind?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/03/15/fewer-voters-have-made-up-their-mind-on-how-to-vote-than-in-the-past/0 -
As @rcs1000 points out, the Don't Know/Would Not Vote figure from ORB is very odd. Not only is it massively out of line with other pollsters, it's also intrinsically hugely implausible.0
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Of course, if the President really thinks we can swing this for him, I am afraid he is kidding himself.Sandpit said:Good comments from @MaxPB and @rcs1000 on the last thread about the appetite within the EU for the TTIP trade deal if the UK was to leave - leaving Germany isolated in favour of the deal while most of the rest of the EU with don't care or are opposed. Might go some way to explaining Obama's comments last week.
There was an interesting factoid doing the rounds about this earlier this week - the EU has asked for 200 categories of services to be excluded from the TTIP. The US has asked for just four to be excluded.
It shows how much resistance there is in the EU to genuine liberalisation in this area I think. Not terribly helpful for the UK, specialised in services, either.0 -
Mr. 1000, 3% does seem dubiously dinky.0
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The betting markets haven't reacted to this poll. The markets seem to be moving for reasons unconnected with polling at present.
Personally, I think the referendum polls should receive a little bit more attention from gamblers than they are presently receiving.0 -
Austin Reed gone busto...0
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Yes, which is why I think he might actually win this. He knows where all the bodies are buried and comes at the election from the other side of the fence. His posturing so far has been aimed at winning the nomination, which is now looking certain by tomorrow.Pulpstar said:
Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.Sandpit said:
Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.logical_song said:Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480
I wonder how many of the get-the-money-out-of-politics crowd who are currently supporting Sanders could be persuaded to back Trump over Hillary in November? Possibly more than expected.0 -
Poland is an interesting one because until very recently the country was extremely europhile, and then the annexation Donbass/Crimea by Putin happened and pretty much all of the EU shrugged its collective shoulders except Britain who pushed hard for big sanctions. Since then there has been a surge in scepticism and at one point the Poles tried to hitch themselves to Dave's dodgy deal for an opt-out of ever-closer-union. There is even some evidence that they may try and use the Swedish solution to keep themselves out of the Euro perpetually even though the EU have said it isn't possible now.rcs1000 said:
The Dutch are very keen on the Euro (something like 3:1 agree with the "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands, including more than half of all PVV voters!), so I suspect they won't jump.taffys said:
Absolutely, but I guess the EU are terrified of a snowball effect. I;ve read that Sweden may look to jump ship if the UK does....Denmark...maybe Holland....rcs1000 said:
I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.runnymede said:
The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.
This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.
But I could definitely see Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and even Poland jump.0 -
We get this tired argument trotted out all the time, it would be nice to hear a different tune.TOPPING said:fpt re sovereignty.
If the people of the UK want to leave the EU now, or every five years from 2020, they can do so.
People would vote for say the Tories proposing to leave as part of their manifesto, and quite likely Labour as well, UKIP not so much. People may well feel a strong desire to leave the EU, but that doesn't mean they will elect just anyone to run their country for five years to achieve it. If what you say is true George Galloway could put "leave" on the front of his manifesto and get 30% of the vote, seem unlikely.
The problem is now no one would believe either of the main parties even if the put it front and square in their manifesto.
tl;dr: A desire, even a rampant desire to be out the EU does not mean you are prepared to inflict a bunch of fecking idiots on your country for five years to achieve it.0 -
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Before, they used to only have a forced question option.rcs1000 said:I'm intrigued by the way ORB gets such a massive difference in DK/WS compared to other pollsters.
Does anybody know why this is?
But they recently tweaked it.0 -
Agreed. At some point that will surely happen.AlastairMeeks said:The betting markets haven't reacted to this poll. The markets seem to be moving for reasons unconnected with polling at present.
Personally, I think the referendum polls should receive a little bit more attention from gamblers than they are presently receiving.0 -
(Although if you look through the list of services, a very large number - 30 or 40 - are related to the public provision of health.)runnymede said:
Of course, if the President really thinks we can swing this for him, I am afraid he is kidding himself.Sandpit said:Good comments from @MaxPB and @rcs1000 on the last thread about the appetite within the EU for the TTIP trade deal if the UK was to leave - leaving Germany isolated in favour of the deal while most of the rest of the EU with don't care or are opposed. Might go some way to explaining Obama's comments last week.
There was an interesting factoid doing the rounds about this earlier this week - the EU has asked for 200 categories of services to be excluded from the TTIP. The US has asked for just four to be excluded.
It shows how much resistance there is in the EU to genuine liberalisation in this area I think. Not terribly helpful for the UK, specialised in services, either.0 -
Mr. Max, worth noting Poland was originally against the QMV quota for refugee resettlement from Merkelland, but changed its mind, which irked some in places like the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.
Mr. Meeks, I agree but would add the caveat that polling has recently been shown to be a bit dodgy.
That probably helps Leave more than Remain. Just as it's more socially acceptable to mock 'Tory scum', so it's more socially acceptable to snuggle up to the EU and lambast the 'xenophobes'.
[I still expect Remain to win easily, as fear crystallises closer to the date].0 -
Looks like after 27 years, the Hillsborough families are finally getting justice.0
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Labour had it in their manifesto in 1983, of course.Indigo said:
We get this tired argument trotted out all the time, it would be nice to hear a different tune.TOPPING said:fpt re sovereignty.
If the people of the UK want to leave the EU now, or every five years from 2020, they can do so.
People would vote for say the Tories proposing to leave as part of their manifesto, and quite likely Labour as well, UKIP not so much. People may well feel a strong desire to leave the EU, but that doesn't mean they will elect just anyone to run their country for five years to achieve it. If what you say is true George Galloway could put "leave" on the front of his manifesto and get 30% of the vote, seem unlikely.
The problem is now no one would believe either of the main parties even if the put it front and square in their manifesto.
tl;dr: A desire, even a rampant desire to be out the EU does not mean you are prepared to inflict a bunch of fecking idiots on your country for five years to achieve it.0 -
Hmm. Yes, it's bizarre. They must be squeezing DKs in the way ask the question?Richard_Nabavi said:As @rcs1000 points out, the Don't Know/Would Not Vote figure from ORB is very odd. Not only is it massively out of line with other pollsters, it's also intrinsically hugely implausible.
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Something else I've been thinking about - a reason for Germany wanting to keep us in the EU is that we have, for the last 20 years or so, taken up the "bad guy" or obstructionist role. It has won us few friends and made us many enemies in Brussels, but most countries recognise the need for a country to take up that role. I think the German government worry that if Britain leaves, it will become the lone voice of dissent because no one else would be willing to take up a role that will leave them friendless like us.0
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We are told that Dave was offered the option, but turned it down because he wanted to "dock" the UK with the EU.runnymede said:This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11658810/David-Camerons-has-finally-confirmed-that-he-is-pro-European-and-wants-us-to-stay-in.htmlJacques Delors emerged from retirement to propose a “privileged partnership” for Britain, based on free movement of goods and services but not political integration. Guy Verhofstadt, the federalist Euro-liberal leader, made a similar offer, calling it “associate membership”.
Europhile to his well manicured fingernails I am afraid.. and a liar.
But, to the incredulity of Continental Europhiles, David Cameron is pushing only for token changes, most of which can be achieved through domestic legislation without requiring treaty change. He has ruled out campaigning to leave the EU. He has told Jean-Claude Juncker that he intends to use the referendum to, as the President of the European Commission puts it, “dock Britain to the EU”.0 -
What would Germany be dissenting from, exactly? It is 100% behind the move to European federation.MaxPB said:Something else I've been thinking about - a reason for Germany wanting to keep us in the EU is that we have, for the last 20 years or so, taken up the "bad guy" or obstructionist role. It has won us few friends and made us many enemies in Brussels, but most countries recognise the need for a country to take up that role. I think the German government worry that if Britain leaves, it will become the lone voice of dissent because no one else would be willing to take up a role that will leave them friendless like us.
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Like a reverse Netanyahu.FrancisUrquhart said:Not looking good...
http://order-order.com/2016/04/26/naz-shah-the-jews-are-rallying/0 -
Hillsborough disaster inquest rules 96 victims were unlawfully killed
and no behaviour on the part of football supporters which caused or contributed to the deaths.0 -
Sure. Still leaves rather a lot though....?rcs1000 said:
(Although if you look through the list of services, a very large number - 30 or 40 - are related to the public provision of health.)runnymede said:
Of course, if the President really thinks we can swing this for him, I am afraid he is kidding himself.Sandpit said:Good comments from @MaxPB and @rcs1000 on the last thread about the appetite within the EU for the TTIP trade deal if the UK was to leave - leaving Germany isolated in favour of the deal while most of the rest of the EU with don't care or are opposed. Might go some way to explaining Obama's comments last week.
There was an interesting factoid doing the rounds about this earlier this week - the EU has asked for 200 categories of services to be excluded from the TTIP. The US has asked for just four to be excluded.
It shows how much resistance there is in the EU to genuine liberalisation in this area I think. Not terribly helpful for the UK, specialised in services, either.0 -
Dynamo11 • 7 minutes ago "One of the moderates I hear so much about these days"FrancisUrquhart said:Not looking good...
http://order-order.com/2016/04/26/naz-shah-the-jews-are-rallying/
upset • 6 minutes ago "She is moderately anti-Semitic, she only wants them to be deported."
comments from Guido website.
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Wow! 96 unlawful killings according to the BBC. Finally justice is delivered.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like after 27 years, the Hillsborough families are finally getting justice.
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And thisSandpit said:
Wow! 96 unlawful killings according to the BBC. Finally justice is delivered.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like after 27 years, the Hillsborough families are finally getting justice.
7) Jury agrees - there was no behaviour on part of supporters which contributed to situation0 -
Though I have often been told that I shouldn't let the effect of Leave on domestic politics worry me. Eg, that if it looks like it would lead to five or ten years of a government I don't like that is a ridiculous reason for voting Remain. Well, that's a different view I guess.Indigo said:
We get this tired argument trotted out all the time, it would be nice to hear a different tune.TOPPING said:fpt re sovereignty.
If the people of the UK want to leave the EU now, or every five years from 2020, they can do so.
People would vote for say the Tories proposing to leave as part of their manifesto, and quite likely Labour as well, UKIP not so much. People may well feel a strong desire to leave the EU, but that doesn't mean they will elect just anyone to run their country for five years to achieve it. If what you say is true George Galloway could put "leave" on the front of his manifesto and get 30% of the vote, seem unlikely.
The problem is now no one would believe either of the main parties even if the put it front and square in their manifesto.
tl;dr: A desire, even a rampant desire to be out the EU does not mean you are prepared to inflict a bunch of fecking idiots on your country for five years to achieve it.
At all events, the point you are making applies to pretty much any single issue in a representative democracy. If I'm in favour if renationalising the utilities but don't want Jezza what can I do?0 -
Campaign contributions are a matter of public record, difficult to spin them as corruption.Pulpstar said:
Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.Sandpit said:
Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.logical_song said:Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/361364800 -
This is an argument for more referendums. Which I personally support.Wanderer said:
Though I have often been told that I shouldn't let the effect of Leave on domestic politics worry me. Eg, that if it looks like it would lead to five or ten years of a government I don't like that is a ridiculous reason for voting Remain. Well, that's a different view I guess.Indigo said:
We get this tired argument trotted out all the time, it would be nice to hear a different tune.TOPPING said:fpt re sovereignty.
If the people of the UK want to leave the EU now, or every five years from 2020, they can do so.
People would vote for say the Tories proposing to leave as part of their manifesto, and quite likely Labour as well, UKIP not so much. People may well feel a strong desire to leave the EU, but that doesn't mean they will elect just anyone to run their country for five years to achieve it. If what you say is true George Galloway could put "leave" on the front of his manifesto and get 30% of the vote, seem unlikely.
The problem is now no one would believe either of the main parties even if the put it front and square in their manifesto.
tl;dr: A desire, even a rampant desire to be out the EU does not mean you are prepared to inflict a bunch of fecking idiots on your country for five years to achieve it.
At all events, the point you are making applies to pretty much any single issue in a representative democracy. If I'm in favour if renationalising the utilities but don't want Jezza what can I do?0 -
Is "REMAINtheGovt" next cunning stunt going to be Mrs Merkel or M. Hollande to help things along?Sean_F said:A 4% shift is only margin or error, and we need to see other polls before coming to judgement. However, there is polling evidence that many voters are unhappy at Obama's intervention.
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Looking forward to a statement from Kelvin McKenzie.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like after 27 years, the Hillsborough families are finally getting justice.
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Me too. The rancour generated over SIndy surprised many - and that axe is ground every day in one form or another. I don't think we'll see anything as venemous over the EU ref, but the issues will rankle and the enlarged core of Leavers are likely to be pretty unimpressed.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
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Surely most people are not that engaged with the referendum this far ahead of the vote.
So margin of error +/- 10% on any figure ?0 -
Yes. About bloody time too. The relationship between football fans and authorities in the 1980s was always going to end in a tragedy with many innocent victims.TheScreamingEagles said:
And thisSandpit said:
Wow! 96 unlawful killings according to the BBC. Finally justice is delivered.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like after 27 years, the Hillsborough families are finally getting justice.
7) Jury agrees - there was no behaviour on part of supporters which contributed to situation
Finally, 96 people who just wanted to watch a football match get justice.0 -
It's not corruption because that's the system. People are expressing their dislike of the system through voting Bernie and Trump !Indigo said:
Campaign contributions are a matter of public record, difficult to spin them as corruption.Pulpstar said:
Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.Sandpit said:
Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.logical_song said:Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/361364800 -
I got the distinct impression watching him on the news that he is just started rowing like mad for the centre, suddenly seemed much more moderate and emollient, seemed much more self controlled, much more soberly dressed etc. I think he thinks the nomination is effectively in the bag and it's time to start the marathon run for the general.Sandpit said:
Yes, which is why I think he might actually win this. He knows where all the bodies are buried and comes at the election from the other side of the fence. His posturing so far has been aimed at winning the nomination, which is now looking certain by tomorrow.Pulpstar said:
Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.Sandpit said:
Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.logical_song said:Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480
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No one has yet been prosecuted.Sandpit said:
Wow! 96 unlawful killings according to the BBC. Finally justice is delivered.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like after 27 years, the Hillsborough families are finally getting justice.
And justice delayed (if and when it is done) is justice denied.
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As much as I think big (perhaps unlawful) mistakes were made by South Yorkshire Police, I'm not very happy to see Sheffield Wednesday getting a kicking.0
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But very easy to spin the recipient of them *to the general public* as being beholden to their rich paymasters.Indigo said:
Campaign contributions are a matter of public record, difficult to spin them as corruption.Pulpstar said:
Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.Sandpit said:
Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.logical_song said:Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/361364800 -
ORB's previous polls had DK/WNV at 5%.
Around a quarter of the other pollsters.
Must be the methodology.0 -
I've read several articles mentioning Poland over the last month or so.rcs1000 said:
The Dutch are very keen on the Euro (something like 3:1 agree with the "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands, including more than half of all PVV voters!), so I suspect they won't jump.taffys said:
Absolutely, but I guess the EU are terrified of a snowball effect. I;ve read that Sweden may look to jump ship if the UK does....Denmark...maybe Holland....rcs1000 said:
I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.runnymede said:
The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.
This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.
It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.
But I could definitely see Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and even Poland jump.0 -
Wednesday are culpable, but it could have been a few other clubs.tlg86 said:As much as I think big (perhaps unlawful) mistakes were made by South Yorkshire Police, I'm not very happy to see Sheffield Wednesday getting a kicking.
Stadium safety isn't like it is these days.0 -
Establishment fail to adequately understand the discontent of the population shocker!0
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Kudos to Andy Burnham for helping accelerate this process.0
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and Cameron is going to bugger off rapidly and leave someone else to sweep up the mess, he will be popularPlato_Says said:
Me too. The rancour generated over SIndy surprised many - and that axe is ground every day in one form or another. I don't think we'll see anything as venemous over the EU ref, but the issues will rankle and the enlarged core of Leavers are likely to be pretty unimpressed.Patrick said:I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.
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I was very surprised at how unsubtle the intervention was.Sean_F said:A 4% shift is only margin or error, and we need to see other polls before coming to judgement.
However, there is polling evidence that many voters are unhappy at Obama's intervention.
To many voters, it looks like he flew into the UK, at David Cameron's invitation, said 'vote Remain, or else' and then flew out again.
It's no wonder that hasn't been well received.0 -
Exactly, this could have happened at White Hart Lane, Villa Park....even Wembley. Semi finals and finals were notorious for fans trying to get in without tickets.TheScreamingEagles said:
Wednesday are culpable, but it could have been a few other clubs.tlg86 said:As much as I think big (perhaps unlawful) mistakes were made by South Yorkshire Police, I'm not very happy to see Sheffield Wednesday getting a kicking.
Stadium safety isn't like it is these days.0 -
Do you think people were impressed by the 'interesting' decision to meet the royal children?Casino_Royale said:
I was very surprised at how unsubtle the intervention was.Sean_F said:A 4% shift is only margin or error, and we need to see other polls before coming to judgement.
However, there is polling evidence that many voters are unhappy at Obama's intervention.
To many voters, it looks like he flew into the UK, at David Cameron's invitation, said 'vote Remain, or else' and then flew out again.
It's no wonder that hasn't been well received.0 -
And horribly accurate too - she's got more skeletons than Forest Lawn.Sandpit said:
Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.logical_song said:Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/361364800 -
I still don't get why Jack Straw refused to look at this.TheScreamingEagles said:Kudos to Andy Burnham for helping accelerate this process.
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So Cruz had the masterstroke of trying to stitch up the election by doing a deal with someone about as far away from as you can get inside the big church of the Republican party, whaat could possibly go wrongPulpstar said:
It's not corruption because that's the system. People are expressing their dislike of the system through voting Bernie and Trump !Indigo said:
Campaign contributions are a matter of public record, difficult to spin them as corruption.Pulpstar said:
Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.Sandpit said:
Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.logical_song said:Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480
Trump's statement is a hoot
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/25/donald-trumps-reaction-to-the-cruz-kasich-alliance-was-epic/Because of me, everyone now sees that the Republican primary system is totally rigged. When two candidates who have no path to victory get together to stop a candidate who is expanding the party by millions of voters, (all of whom will drop out if I am not in the race) it is yet another example of everything that is wrong in Washington and our political system. This horrible act of desperation, from two campaigns who have totally failed, makes me even more determined, for the good of the Republican Party and our country, to prevail!
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