It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Because 2012 was a precursor to a Labour victory in the next GE right? A real high point?
N0- that is a non sequitur. There is no direct relationship between local election results and the following General Election - eg Labour did badly at the 1960 and 1961 elections but still went on to win the 1964 General Election. On the other hand, Labour did well at the May 1970 local elections but then lost the General Election a month later!
Local election results are usually a good pointer to the next general election. Generally speaking, the Opposition need to be a long way ahead of the Government to be in with a chance at the next general election. Labour did quite well in May 1970, but they took an absolute hammering in 1967-1969.
Certain policy fields remain subject to unanimity in whole or in part, such as:
membership of the Union (opening of accession negotiations, association, serious violations of the Union's values, etc.); change the status of an overseas country or territory (OCT) to an outermost region (OMR) or vice versa.[26] taxation; the finances of the Union (own resources, the multiannual financial framework); harmonisation in the field of social security and social protection;
So the finances of the Union and harmonisation of social security are both listed as requiring unanimity.
Some more priceless quotes from the day Obama won it for REMAIN
Roger Posts: 5,054 April 22 As celebrity endorsements go they don't get much better. An expert testimony as well
bigjohnowls Posts: 6,205 April 22 Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 27s28 seconds ago The big winner today Cameron. The big loser Boris
Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,443 April 22 I do love this argument that Cameron getting Obama to agree with him is demeaning to Cameron. Bravo!
There's lots of GLORIOUS comments in that thread from Messrs Nabavi and Meeks saying how brilliant the REMAIN campaign is, and how useless LEAVE.
So brilliant the Prime Minister demeans himself in front of the country on live TV, fawns over a US president who has just insulted us, and at the same time uses up his biggest possible endorsement for REMAIN - and then sees REMAIN going backwards in the polls, as a result of his brilliant efforts.
That's how "brilliant" the REMAIN campaign is. CHORTLE.
Only two polls since the Obama comments. Let's see what the rest say.
I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?
If we didn't give £1.7bn to the EU last year we could have given some of it to Oxford, no need for a loan
A great polling divide this time seems to be some pollsters downweighting Remain (due to certainty to vote and age etc) and one pollster downweighting Leave (due to demographics).
It will be interesting to see which pollster is right.
I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?
If we didn't give £1.7bn to the EU last year we could have given some of it to Oxford, no need for a loan
I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?
If we didn't give £1.7bn to the EU last year we could have given some of it to Oxford, no need for a loan
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Such inspiring confidence in the Hard Left leadership!
Some more priceless quotes from the day Obama won it for REMAIN
Roger Posts: 5,054 April 22 As celebrity endorsements go they don't get much better. An expert testimony as well
bigjohnowls Posts: 6,205 April 22 Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 27s28 seconds ago The big winner today Cameron. The big loser Boris
Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,443 April 22 I do love this argument that Cameron getting Obama to agree with him is demeaning to Cameron. Bravo!
There's lots of GLORIOUS comments in that thread from Messrs Nabavi and Meeks saying how brilliant the REMAIN campaign is, and how useless LEAVE.
So brilliant the Prime Minister demeans himself in front of the country on live TV, fawns over a US president who has just insulted us, and at the same time uses up his biggest possible endorsement for REMAIN - and then sees REMAIN going backwards in the polls, as a result of his brilliant efforts.
That's how "brilliant" the REMAIN campaign is. CHORTLE.
Only two polls since the Obama comments. Let's see what the rest say.
And I'm not sure if I believe them.
Nevertheless, you'd have to have a heart of stone not to enjoy the PB Remains having their noses rubbed in it a bit.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Because 2012 was a precursor to a Labour victory in the next GE right? A real high point?
N0- that is a non sequitur. There is no direct relationship between local election results and the following General Election - eg Labour did badly at the 1960 and 1961 elections but still went on to win the 1964 General Election. On the other hand, Labour did well at the May 1970 local elections but then lost the General Election a month later!
Local election results are usually a good pointer to the next general election. Generally speaking, the Opposition need to be a long way ahead of the Government to be in with a chance at the next general election. Labour did quite well in May 1970, but they took an absolute hammering in 1967-1969.
Indeed so - but if good results a mere five weeks before a general election offer a poor guide - as in 1970 - it is unlikely that they are particularly revealing in relation to a general election several years later. As another example, Labour did exceptionally well at the 1971 local elections but still went on to lose the popular vote at the February 1974 election!
I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?
If we didn't give £1.7bn to the EU last year we could have given some of it to Oxford, no need for a loan
A great polling divide this time seems to be some pollsters downweighting Remain (due to certainty to vote and age etc) and one pollster downweighting Leave (due to demographics).
It will be interesting to see which pollster is right.
A dead heat until near enough the last two weeks, with the campaigns making little difference, and a 4-5% swing to Remain on the day?
If the Leave campaign steps up, then a 54-46% result to Remain feels about right to me.
Indeed so - but if good results a mere five weeks before a general election offer a poor guide - as in 1970 - it is unlikely that they are particularly revealing in relation to a general election several years later. As another example, Labour did exceptionally well at the 1971 local elections but still went on to lose the popular vote at the February 1974 election!
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Such inspiring confidence in the Hard Left leadership!
I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?
If you say so. The problem with loans is they can always ask for their money back if you aren't appropriately supportive, rather like an EU Pension.
I feel guilty bringing up the 5th May elections, when all are talking about the referendum. Anyway, news on the streets of Wales and London is that UKIP will do better than polls. Might mean an extra seat or two in Wales and a London-wide Assembly member in London, at a stretch 2!
Lib Dems are having a good campaign in terms of policies and organisations but no one trusts them! You may already know that.
Labour say Khan is almost certain to be Mayor - '100%' is their view. mmm, let's hope not. Labour chaps say there is some gossip about him, not extremist led, that may leak!
More Tories on the ground than Labour in London. Opposite of GE.
Personally, it would be interesting to see who tops the mini-battle of Mayoral candidates between Greens (she's lovely), Lib Dems (automaton) and UKIP (surprising pleasant). I think UKIP might clinch it.
Lastly, Galloway is bombing. Does he have any juice left in the tank? No one thinks so, but he is an unexploded bomb!
Sorry, to bother you with all this.
I remember you had one of those nod nod wink wink bits of inside info about Ed before the last election. Did it ever happen?
I’ve just read that the Bradford MP Naz Shah has quit as McDonnell's PPS, how long before the Labour party expells this nasty anti-Semite? - answers on a post card...!
If only the voters would listen to the PB Pandits people wouldn't have comments being thrown back to make them look like numpties. (I know I'm not immune)
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU. Separately may I say how wonderful it is to see the joy and relief from the Hillsborough families and trust that manslaughter charges will follow? I assume the ‘Sun’ tomorrow will have a front page apology from Kelvin McKenzie and Boris will no doubt issue a similar public apology. The verdict will hopefully give the families some closure and that they can live their lives knowing that their cause has been absolutely vindicated
I confess that I have limited knowledge of the Hillsborough disaster but I am surprised by the finding that the actions of the fans played no part.
The police, due to systematic failure on their part with a total lack of leadership, failed to steward the crowds prior to the turnstiles. This created a crush. To relieve the crush the police opened an exit gate. This created a crush in the pens from which there was no way to relieve the crush. People died.
And as this happened the police lied and lied and lied. They lied as it happened, they lied for years afterwards.
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
I’ve just read that the Bradford MP Naz Shah has quit as McDonnell's PPS, how long before the Labour party expells this nasty anti-Semite? - answers on a post card...!
She wouldn't be the first who thinks Israel is an apartheid state. In fact it might well be a majority view. It certainly is among it's Arab neigbours
'Immigration is the ultimate fear card, isn't it? Immigrants are taking our jobs, pushing down our wages, claiming our generous benefits, making our housing more expensive, putting our public services under unbearable pressure and changing the cultural and social fabric of our country. It's an immensely powerful message and very hard to counter.'
Nope, it's the ultimate reality card,it's what voters have actually experienced over the past 20 years and according to polls their number one concern.
I’ve just read that the Bradford MP Naz Shah has quit as McDonnell's PPS, how long before the Labour party expells this nasty anti-Semite? - answers on a post card...!
She wouldn't be the first who thinks Israel is an apartheid state. In fact it might well be a majority view. It certainly is among it's Arab neigbours
Israel's Arab neigbours want it wiped off the face of the earth - is this also Labour policy?
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Such inspiring confidence in the Hard Left leadership!
Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.
Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.
Goodness knows I don't support the man, but I'd have thought sometimes former poachers make very good gamekeepers.
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
I’ve just read that the Bradford MP Naz Shah has quit as McDonnell's PPS, how long before the Labour party expells this nasty anti-Semite? - answers on a post card...!
She wouldn't be the first who thinks Israel is an apartheid state. In fact it might well be a majority view. It certainly is among it's Arab neigbours
Well, its Arab neighbours are hardly in a position to cast stones. It's the presence of Jews there that's their main grievance.
'She wouldn't be the first who thinks Israel is an apartheid state. In fact it might well be a majority view. It certainly is among it's Arab neigbours'
The same Arab neighbours that operate as apartheid states in terms of how Sunni / Shias are treated in their countries.?
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
Oh my word, Richard Nabavi just used the word wank, to SeanT.
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
I’ve just read that the Bradford MP Naz Shah has quit as McDonnell's PPS, how long before the Labour party expells this nasty anti-Semite? - answers on a post card...!
She wouldn't be the first who thinks Israel is an apartheid state. In fact it might well be a majority view. It certainly is among it's Arab neigbours
Israel's Arab neigbours want it wiped off the face of the earth - is this also Labour policy?
The view that it's an apartheid state goes much wider than it's Arab neigbours. It's odd that I as a Jew have a right to return even though I've never been there but a non Jew can't even live there if that's where they were born. It's very similar to the Land Acts in apartheid South Africa.
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
Oh my word, Richard Nabavi just used the word wank, to SeanT.
I don't think I'll ever recover from this.
R_N is rattled.
The private polling must be dreadful.
It is going to be an awful night for the Tories.....
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
Settle down Richard, the nurse will along in a minute
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
Settle down Richard, the nurse will along in a minute
Lol.
Seeing as Richard is around I wonder if he will be able to confirm if we paid the £1.7bn bill to the EU in full...
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
Oh my word, Richard Nabavi just used the word wank, to SeanT.
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
There's no doubt that the Remain campaign is very well-organised and efficient (far more so than the Leave campaign).
But, it your message is unattractive, then good organisation and efficiency may not do you much good. And, the Remain message is unappealing. It's declinist. It promotes the view that foreigners will do beastly things to us if we leave the EU and there's nothing we can do about it. That may be true, but it's not going to be welcomed by many voters.
I’ve just read that the Bradford MP Naz Shah has quit as McDonnell's PPS, how long before the Labour party expells this nasty anti-Semite? - answers on a post card...!
She wouldn't be the first who thinks Israel is an apartheid state. In fact it might well be a majority view. It certainly is among it's Arab neigbours
Well, its Arab neighbours are hardly in a position to cast stones. It's the presence of Jews there that's their main grievance.
Which isn't really an excuse. We're often told that Israel is the only thriving democracy in the ME, but that doesn't appear to be the case if you're a Palestinian. Comparisons to Hitler are disgusting, but comparisons to Apartheid don't seem wholly without relevance.
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
Groupthink?
Thread header after thread header slamming Leave, you and other fanboys persistently calling names, if you get any further up your own arse you'll be chewing your tonsils.
Show a bit of humility and stop waving your todger around. If, and its a fair sized if, Leave pull this off, your life will become unbearable.
There were murmurings a year or two ago about him joining one team or another (forget which). Very young, though, so plenty of time for him to get into the sport.
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
Oh my word, Richard Nabavi just used the word wank, to SeanT.
A general election if there's a leave vote is a terrible idea.
On the Labour side if they win they don't want to leave so what's going to happen? On the Tory side enough want to leave that there's no way we won't leave if there's a leave vote so why have a GE?
The reason there will probably be a GE if Leave win is because the government as it stands will fall. All the leading actors of Remain, Cameron, Osborne, Fallon, Crab, Hammond, Javid, Morgan and Co will have so much mud clinging to them, and the world will laugh at them if they continue, that the shame will force many to resign.
Notice I leave out May, as she may be the one Tory leader to come out of the referendum with some sort of authority. Also the Tories will need a leader that can form a government in the interim.
The only flaw in the above is that Cameron and Co don't seem to understand or feel shame and will go on until they are ground to dust by events.
So the finances of the Union and harmonisation of social security are both listed as requiring unanimity.
Don't trust wikipedia, check the primary sources.
The multiannual financial framework is the seven year plan, which we did a deal on to set a cap for the increases over the time period 2014-2020, but within that plan the annual EU Budget is set every year by QMV, see Article 314 TFEU.
5. The Conciliation Committee, which shall be composed of the members of the Council or their representatives and an equal number of members representing the European Parliament, shall have the task of reaching agreement on a joint text, by a qualified majority of the members of the Council or their representatives and by a majority of the representatives of the European Parliament within twenty-one days of its being convened, on the basis of the positions of the European Parliament and the Council.
I feel guilty bringing up the 5th May elections, when all are talking about the referendum. Anyway, news on the streets of Wales and London is that UKIP will do better than polls. Might mean an extra seat or two in Wales and a London-wide Assembly member in London, at a stretch 2!
Lib Dems are having a good campaign in terms of policies and organisations but no one trusts them! You may already know that.
Labour say Khan is almost certain to be Mayor - '100%' is their view. mmm, let's hope not. Labour chaps say there is some gossip about him, not extremist led, that may leak!
More Tories on the ground than Labour in London. Opposite of GE.
Personally, it would be interesting to see who tops the mini-battle of Mayoral candidates between Greens (she's lovely), Lib Dems (automaton) and UKIP (surprising pleasant). I think UKIP might clinch it.
Lastly, Galloway is bombing. Does he have any juice left in the tank? No one thinks so, but he is an unexploded bomb!
Sorry, to bother you with all this.
I remember you had one of those nod nod wink wink bits of inside info about Ed before the last election. Did it ever happen?
Don't think so, he was too dull. I can't tell you the Khan one, because it is second hand, needs to come from Labour people who claim they may spill it before election. Let's hope.
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
There's no doubt that the Remain campaign is very well-organised and efficient (far more so than the Leave campaign).
But, it your message is unattractive, then good organisation and efficiency may not do you much good. And, the Remain message is unappealing. It's declinist. It promotes the view that foreigners will do beastly things to us if we leave the EU and there's nothing we can do about it. That may be true, but it's not going to be welcomed by many voters.
That's not how I see the Remain message. To me, it says that we are perfectly able to build successful trading relationships with non-EU countries while being in the EU and enjoying full, unhindered access to the single market. Leaving the EU does not mean better trading relationships with anyone. It merely means a less beneficial one with countries that currently buy over 40% of all our exports.
There's no doubt that the Remain campaign is very well-organised and efficient (far more so than the Leave campaign).
But, it your message is unattractive, then good organisation and efficiency may not do you much good. And, the Remain message is unappealing. It's declinist. It promotes the view that foreigners will do beastly things to us if we leave the EU and there's nothing we can do about it. That may be true, but it's not going to be welcomed by many voters.
The Remain campaign has one over-riding objective: to sow doubt about the economic risk of leaving. That's all they need to do to win this by a good margin. They are doing it very well, and that will pay off in the final voting.
There's no doubt that the Remain campaign is very well-organised and efficient (far more so than the Leave campaign).
But, it your message is unattractive, then good organisation and efficiency may not do you much good. And, the Remain message is unappealing. It's declinist. It promotes the view that foreigners will do beastly things to us if we leave the EU and there's nothing we can do about it. That may be true, but it's not going to be welcomed by many voters.
The Remain campaign has one over-riding objective: to sow doubt about the economic risk of leaving. That's all they need to do to win this by a good margin. They are doing it very well, and that will pay off in the final voting.
Perhaps. But, it's not a message that people like to hear.
'Immigration is the ultimate fear card, isn't it? Immigrants are taking our jobs, pushing down our wages, claiming our generous benefits, making our housing more expensive, putting our public services under unbearable pressure and changing the cultural and social fabric of our country. It's an immensely powerful message and very hard to counter.'
Nope, it's the ultimate reality card,it's what voters have actually experienced over the past 20 years and according to polls their number one concern.
Most parts of the UK are low EU immigration areas. Most people have not actually experienced it in any large numbers - and that becomes truer the further north and west you go. But they are concerned about it. You can see that in polling about what issues directly affect voters and what they think are the most important issues facing the country. In the first, immigration is much further down the list.
There's no doubt that the Remain campaign is very well-organised and efficient (far more so than the Leave campaign).
But, it your message is unattractive, then good organisation and efficiency may not do you much good. And, the Remain message is unappealing. It's declinist. It promotes the view that foreigners will do beastly things to us if we leave the EU and there's nothing we can do about it. That may be true, but it's not going to be welcomed by many voters.
The Remain campaign has one over-riding objective: to sow doubt about the economic risk of leaving. That's all they need to do to win this by a good margin. They are doing it very well, and that will pay off in the final voting.
Perhaps. But, it's not a message that people like to hear.
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
There's no doubt that the Remain campaign is very well-organised and efficient (far more so than the Leave campaign).
But, it your message is unattractive, then good organisation and efficiency may not do you much good. And, the Remain message is unappealing. It's declinist. It promotes the view that foreigners will do beastly things to us if we leave the EU and there's nothing we can do about it. That may be true, but it's not going to be welcomed by many voters.
That's not how I see the Remain message. To me, it says that we are perfectly able to build successful trading relationships with non-EU countries while being in the EU and enjoying full, unhindered access to the single market. Leaving the EU does not mean better trading relationships with anyone. It merely means a less beneficial one with countries that currently buy over 40% of all our exports.
Why would it not mean better trading relationships with anyone? What makes us 100% incapable of building new relationships that we are forbidden by treaty from building within the EU?
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
Groupthink?
Thread header after thread header slamming Leave, you and other fanboys persistently calling names, if you get any further up your own arse you'll be chewing your tonsils.
Show a bit of humility and stop waving your todger around. If, and its fair sized.
If, and its a fair sized if, Leave pull this off, your life will become unbearable.
Why? I'm just expressing my independent opinion, as always. I can be wrong sometimes.
Yes, its nothing more than coincidence that your independent opinion complies 100% with Cameron's.
You've never had an original thought in your life, you simply parrot what you hear Cameron say.
As always you are confusing cause and effect. I support Cameron because his politics is similar to mine, not the other way around. I don't know why you are incapable of understanding this simple point.
So the finances of the Union and harmonisation of social security are both listed as requiring unanimity.
Don't trust wikipedia, check the primary sources.
The multiannual financial framework is the seven year plan, which we did a deal on to set a cap for the increases over the time period 2014-2020, but within that plan the annual EU Budget is set every year by QMV, see Article 314 TFEU.
5. The Conciliation Committee, which shall be composed of the members of the Council or their representatives and an equal number of members representing the European Parliament, shall have the task of reaching agreement on a joint text, by a qualified majority of the members of the Council or their representatives and by a majority of the representatives of the European Parliament within twenty-one days of its being convened, on the basis of the positions of the European Parliament and the Council.
I’ve just read that the Bradford MP Naz Shah has quit as McDonnell's PPS, how long before the Labour party expells this nasty anti-Semite? - answers on a post card...!
She wouldn't be the first who thinks Israel is an apartheid state. In fact it might well be a majority view. It certainly is among it's Arab neigbours
Well, its Arab neighbours are hardly in a position to cast stones. It's the presence of Jews there that's their main grievance.
Which isn't really an excuse. We're often told that Israel is the only thriving democracy in the ME, but that doesn't appear to be the case if you're a Palestinian. Comparisons to Hitler are disgusting, but comparisons to Apartheid don't seem wholly without relevance.
How many Arabs living and working in Israel?: Millions How many Jews living and working in Jordan, Egypt, Soudi Arabia, The Magreb, Gaza? Not a one, unless they are the few remaining Jews in Egypt or the Magreb or on an official body from Israel. And the reason is that Jews are forbidden to live in these states. Who really practices Apartheid?
If, and its a fair sized if, Leave pull this off, your life will become unbearable.
Why? I'm just expressing my independent opinion, as always. I can be wrong sometimes.
Yes, its nothing more than coincidence that your independent opinion complies 100% with Cameron's.
You've never had an original thought in your life, you simply parrot what you hear Cameron say.
If you've been on this site any length of time you'd know that isn't unusual. What is extraordinary to us who take a more critical approach to our leaders is the way those who believed he could do no wrong now loathe him with a passion. I always thought the EU was a passing phase that youthful Tories would get over. Now I don't think so. It's the Tories second coming.
If, and its a fair sized if, Leave pull this off, your life will become unbearable.
Why? I'm just expressing my independent opinion, as always. I can be wrong sometimes.
Yes, its nothing more than coincidence that your independent opinion complies 100% with Cameron's.
You've never had an original thought in your life, you simply parrot what you hear Cameron say.
As always you are confusing cause and effect. I support Cameron because his politics is similar to mine, not the other way around. I don't know why you are incapable of understanding this simple point.
I'm not confusing anything, I'm chuckling at your attempts to portray yourself as an independent thinker when you are no such thing. You are a conservative voter attempting to bask in the reflected glory of somebody that doesn't know you. Assuming you're an adult I find that weird.
Miss Plato, the concept of 'bros before hoes' is also to be found in the Chinese neo-classical mega-novel Three Kingdoms.
In it, there are references to brothers (blood-brothers, in this case) being like arms and legs, once lost never to be regained, whereas women (and children) are like clothes, and easily replaced.
I’ve just read that the Bradford MP Naz Shah has quit as McDonnell's PPS, how long before the Labour party expells this nasty anti-Semite? - answers on a post card...!
She wouldn't be the first who thinks Israel is an apartheid state. In fact it might well be a majority view. It certainly is among it's Arab neigbours
Well, its Arab neighbours are hardly in a position to cast stones. It's the presence of Jews there that's their main grievance.
A general election if there's a leave vote is a terrible idea.
On the Labour side if they win they don't want to leave so what's going to happen? On the Tory side enough want to leave that there's no way we won't leave if there's a leave vote so why have a GE?
The reason there will probably be a GE if Leave win is because the government as it stands will fall. All the leading actors of Remain, Cameron, Osborne, Fallon, Crab, Hammond, Javid, Morgan and Co will have so much mud clinging to them, and the world will laugh at them if they continue, that the shame will force many to resign.
Notice I leave out May, as she may be the one Tory leader to come out of the referendum with some sort of authority. Also the Tories will need a leader that can form a government in the interim.
The only flaw in the above is that Cameron and Co don't seem to understand or feel shame and will go on until they are ground to dust by events.
The beauty of a Parliamentary democracy is that even if a government falls, the Parliament does not. Lets say you're right and Cameron has to go along with the others. Cameron will have to resign and there won't simply be a new election there'd be a new Tory leadership election.
Once the new leader is elected he is effectively immediately the new PM. He (or she) has the right (as do all PMs) to reshuffle the cabinet and like all new PMs he almost certainly would.
So then Cameron has been dealt with, the rest of the cabinet has been dealt with. Unless the Conservatives divide in two (and that's LESS likely in the case of a Leave vote since Leavers will have won) then the new PM will hold the confidence of the majority of Parliament. So there'd be no reason to hold a new election.
The priority of a new PM will be to get the right form of Leave then go to the polls on a platform of confidence in the government versus chaos in the opposition ... not chaos either way as Leave is the elephant that hasn't been dealt with yet.
If, and its a fair sized if, Leave pull this off, your life will become unbearable.
Why? I'm just expressing my independent opinion, as always. I can be wrong sometimes.
Yes, its nothing more than coincidence that your independent opinion complies 100% with Cameron's.
You've never had an original thought in your life, you simply parrot what you hear Cameron say.
If you've been on this site any length of time you'd know that isn't unusual. What is extraordinary to us who take a more critical approach to our leaders is the way those who believed he could do no wrong now loathe him with a passion. I always thought the EU was a passing phase that youthful Tories would get over. Now I don't think so. It's the Tories second coming.
Oh I agree, after the GE the gloating on here was unbearable, I pointed out at the time that all political careers end in failure and that a bit more humility would be welcome. Even somebody as anti Cameron as me couldn't have predicted how quickly so many of his supporters would turn.
Unfortunately some on here refuse to accept even the slightest critique which says more about them than Cameron.
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
Groupthink?
Thread header after thread header slamming Leave, you and other fanboys persistently calling names, if you get any further up your own arse you'll be chewing your tonsils.
Show a bit of humility and stop waving your todger around. If, and its fair sized.
Are you asking if Richard's todger is fair-sized?
Now then gentlemen, this isn't the GOP nomination battle you know.
I'm not confusing anything, I'm chuckling at your attempts to portray yourself as an independent thinker when you are no such thing. You are a conservative voter attempting to bask in the reflected glory of somebody that doesn't know you. Assuming you're an adult I find that weird.
As I posted upthread in rather more colourful language than I usually use, it's one of the great things about political betting that there are so many people whose judgement is flawed by their partisanship. You are a splendid example of that maxim. Because you don't like what I say, you invent bonkers explanations ('reflected glory'!!!). What makes this particularly silly is that you ignore the obvious explanation, namely that I mean what I say, and that I have absolutely zero incentive to do otherwise. Here's a tip: try and see if you can get your head around that concept. It will do you good.
I’ve just read that the Bradford MP Naz Shah has quit as McDonnell's PPS, how long before the Labour party expells this nasty anti-Semite? - answers on a post card...!
She wouldn't be the first who thinks Israel is an apartheid state. In fact it might well be a majority view. It certainly is among it's Arab neigbours
Well, its Arab neighbours are hardly in a position to cast stones. It's the presence of Jews there that's their main grievance.
Which isn't really an excuse. We're often told that Israel is the only thriving democracy in the ME, but that doesn't appear to be the case if you're a Palestinian. Comparisons to Hitler are disgusting, but comparisons to Apartheid don't seem wholly without relevance.
How many Arabs living and working in Israel?: Millions How many Jews living and working in Jordan, Egypt, Soudi Arabia, The Magreb, Gaza? Not a one, unless they are the few remaining Jews in Egypt or the Magreb or on an official body from Israel. And the reason is that Jews are forbidden to live in these states. Who really practices Apartheid?
Just nonsense Mike, the Arab states don't practice Apartheid.
Miss Plato, the concept of 'bros before hoes' is also to be found in the Chinese neo-classical mega-novel Three Kingdoms.
In it, there are references to brothers (blood-brothers, in this case) being like arms and legs, once lost never to be regained, whereas women (and children) are like clothes, and easily replaced.
I’ve just read that the Bradford MP Naz Shah has quit as McDonnell's PPS, how long before the Labour party expells this nasty anti-Semite? - answers on a post card...!
She wouldn't be the first who thinks Israel is an apartheid state. In fact it might well be a majority view. It certainly is among it's Arab neigbours
Well, its Arab neighbours are hardly in a position to cast stones. It's the presence of Jews there that's their main grievance.
Which isn't really an excuse. We're often told that Israel is the only thriving democracy in the ME, but that doesn't appear to be the case if you're a Palestinian. Comparisons to Hitler are disgusting, but comparisons to Apartheid don't seem wholly without relevance.
How many Arabs living and working in Israel?: Millions How many Jews living and working in Jordan, Egypt, Soudi Arabia, The Magreb, Gaza? Not a one, unless they are the few remaining Jews in Egypt or the Magreb or on an official body from Israel. And the reason is that Jews are forbidden to live in these states. Who really practices Apartheid?
Just nonsense Mike, the Arab states don't practice Apartheid.
Since the GE my attacks have been aimed mainly at the govt, however if the Labour Party don't sack that anti semitic woman I'll change my target.
Imagine the outrage in Islington if anybody connected with Ukip had said something similar about Muslims. As I've said previously, in parts of Labour anti semitism appears to be condoned, encouraged even, its disgusting.
I'm not confusing anything, I'm chuckling at your attempts to portray yourself as an independent thinker when you are no such thing. You are a conservative voter attempting to bask in the reflected glory of somebody that doesn't know you. Assuming you're an adult I find that weird.
As I posted upthread in rather more colourful language than I usually use, it's one of the great things about political betting that there are so many people whose judgement is flawed by their partisanship. You are a splendid example of that maxim. Because you don't like what I say, you invent bonkers explanations ('reflected glory'!!!). What makes this particularly silly is that you ignore the obvious explanation, namely that I mean what I say, and that I have absolutely zero incentive to do otherwise. Here's a tip: try and see if you can get your head around that concept. It will do you good.
Oh I don't doubt you mean what you say, I find it amusing that you are trying to convince me that what you say you thought up on your own. Such as the adolescent charade about being undecided.
You've now changed tack and are willy waving about your immense success as a political soothsayer and punter. I'm humbled that you've stooped to engage with me, thank you.
I made my remark on April 22nd. You made yours on April 25th, by which time we already had polling evidence, from Sky, that Obama's intervention had backfired. You were just backpedalling hastily.
CHORTLE
Here's what you said on April 22nd:
"Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,444 April 22
This is an impressive campaign from REMAIN however you look at it. That's why there's so much incoherent squealing from the Leave side, although it's baffling to me that they are surprised either by the nature or the intensity of the Remain campaign."
Poppycock. I'd made a similar point earlier.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
Oh my word, Richard Nabavi just used the word wank, to SeanT.
I don't think I'll ever recover from this.
TSE obsessed with BJs, Nabavi obsessed with the W-bomb.
Comments
Certain policy fields remain subject to unanimity in whole or in part, such as:
membership of the Union (opening of accession negotiations, association, serious violations of the Union's values, etc.);
change the status of an overseas country or territory (OCT) to an outermost region (OMR) or vice versa.[26]
taxation;
the finances of the Union (own resources, the multiannual financial framework);
harmonisation in the field of social security and social protection;
So the finances of the Union and harmonisation of social security are both listed as requiring unanimity.
It will be interesting to see which pollster is right.
https://twitter.com/dbbaye/status/724976099998982146
Nevertheless, you'd have to have a heart of stone not to enjoy the PB Remains having their noses rubbed in it a bit.
If the Leave campaign steps up, then a 54-46% result to Remain feels about right to me.
You want to demolish the Bodleian library ?
https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/724941587285942272
And as this happened the police lied and lied and lied. They lied as it happened, they lied for years afterwards.
They were at fault.
And, yes of course this is an impressive campaign from the Remain side. No one seriously disputes that, do they? And the Obama intervention certainly torpedoed Leave's free-trade-deal fantasy.
But go on. I love the groupthink here. It helps keep political betting profitable. If you could manage to wank yourselves towards making the odds even, I'd be very grateful.
'Immigration is the ultimate fear card, isn't it? Immigrants are taking our jobs, pushing down our wages, claiming our generous benefits, making our housing more expensive, putting our public services under unbearable pressure and changing the cultural and social fabric of our country. It's an immensely powerful message and very hard to counter.'
Nope, it's the ultimate reality card,it's what voters have actually experienced over the past 20 years and according to polls their number one concern.
Hull would make a nice home for it.
'She wouldn't be the first who thinks Israel is an apartheid state. In fact it might well be a majority view. It certainly is among it's Arab neigbours'
The same Arab neighbours that operate as apartheid states in terms of how Sunni / Shias are treated in their countries.?
I don't think I'll ever recover from this.
On Sunday evening I am going to be making my debut at the Mayfield Festival as a rap artist:
http://www.mayfieldfestival.co.uk/events/erik-satie-vexations-revisited/
PBers welcome!
The private polling must be dreadful.
It is going to be an awful night for the Tories.....
If.
Maybe Cameron went too far when he got a foreign leader to fly in and threaten the British people in their own country?
#TreacherousDave
Seeing as Richard is around I wonder if he will be able to confirm if we paid the £1.7bn bill to the EU in full...
Next.
But, it your message is unattractive, then good organisation and efficiency may not do you much good. And, the Remain message is unappealing. It's declinist. It promotes the view that foreigners will do beastly things to us if we leave the EU and there's nothing we can do about it. That may be true, but it's not going to be welcomed by many voters.
Thread header after thread header slamming Leave, you and other fanboys persistently calling names, if you get any further up your own arse you'll be chewing your tonsils.
Show a bit of humility and stop waving your todger around. If, and its a fair sized if, Leave pull this off, your life will become unbearable.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/36137400
There were murmurings a year or two ago about him joining one team or another (forget which). Very young, though, so plenty of time for him to get into the sport.
Notice I leave out May, as she may be the one Tory leader to come out of the referendum with some sort of authority. Also the Tories will need a leader that can form a government in the interim.
The only flaw in the above is that Cameron and Co don't seem to understand or feel shame and will go on until they are ground to dust by events.
The multiannual financial framework is the seven year plan, which we did a deal on to set a cap for the increases over the time period 2014-2020, but within that plan the annual EU Budget is set every year by QMV, see Article 314 TFEU. User friendly version in the telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11899962/New-headache-for-David-Cameron-as-Britain-faces-400-million-EU-budget-hike.html
"All the bitches in the house say Reeeeeemaaaaaainnnn!!!!"
I still can't quite believe Leicester are going the title, so I've backed a fiver on Spuds to make sure of it.
https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/724991262491836417
You've never had an original thought in your life, you simply parrot what you hear Cameron say.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1026612/#Comment_1026612
NB point 1 in particular.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11899962/New-headache-for-David-Cameron-as-Britain-faces-400-million-EU-budget-hike.html
That link again confirms that the overall cut in EU spending is "veto protected".
The LEAVE brain trust will have to work on that.
How many Jews living and working in Jordan, Egypt, Soudi Arabia, The Magreb, Gaza? Not a one, unless they are the few remaining Jews in Egypt or the Magreb or on an official body from Israel. And the reason is that Jews are forbidden to live in these states. Who really practices Apartheid?
In it, there are references to brothers (blood-brothers, in this case) being like arms and legs, once lost never to be regained, whereas women (and children) are like clothes, and easily replaced.
Once the new leader is elected he is effectively immediately the new PM. He (or she) has the right (as do all PMs) to reshuffle the cabinet and like all new PMs he almost certainly would.
So then Cameron has been dealt with, the rest of the cabinet has been dealt with. Unless the Conservatives divide in two (and that's LESS likely in the case of a Leave vote since Leavers will have won) then the new PM will hold the confidence of the majority of Parliament. So there'd be no reason to hold a new election.
The priority of a new PM will be to get the right form of Leave then go to the polls on a platform of confidence in the government versus chaos in the opposition ... not chaos either way as Leave is the elephant that hasn't been dealt with yet.
Unfortunately some on here refuse to accept even the slightest critique which says more about them than Cameron.
It's ethnic cleansing.
http://www.standard.co.uk/business/free-city-from-brussels-shackles-brexiteers-urge-a3232851.html
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7100715/Margaret-Thatcher-s-economics-guru-says-Brexit-will-leave-families-with-an-extra-40-pounds-a-week.html
http://www.cityam.com/239663/brexit-myths-debunked-the-leave-campaign-shouldnt-fear-arguing-that-leaving-the-eu-would-be-good-for-the-economy
Imagine the outrage in Islington if anybody connected with Ukip had said something similar about Muslims. As I've said previously, in parts of Labour anti semitism appears to be condoned, encouraged even, its disgusting.
https://youtu.be/jQSZX9W8kfU
You've now changed tack and are willy waving about your immense success as a political soothsayer and punter. I'm humbled that you've stooped to engage with me, thank you.
If the working class vote, Leave wins.
Why are Labour hiding?