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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The IN lead drops by 4% in the first published poll since the Obama intervention

The OUT team will be absolutely delighted with today’s ORB phone poll in the Telegraph which sees last week’s 9% IN lead drop to just five. Whether this is the start of a trend or no we don’t know. In March ORB produced numbers which were out of line with other surveys.

Read the full story here

Toms

Relax everybody. They're just POLLS.

logical_song

Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480

[Deleted User]

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

Layne

For the last few days we have been told again and again how the Leave campaign were idiots and Boris Johnson was a clown who did not know when to stop digging. Now we can see that Obama's intervention was disliked and the polls moving towards Leave. We now need only await the EU true believers telling us that this is actually good for Remain and they knew this all along.

Perhaps Remain need to consider that British voters can think for themselves. To them, it's not a matter of being told what to do by foreign leaders, strange a concept as that is to EU fanboys. As a hint, the "won't someone think of the children" is a dud too.

taffys

Considering Leave have had the kitchen sink from remain in the couple of weeks....goodness.

SouthamObserver

Obama was never going to convince convinced leavers. But if he has made Remainers more likely to vote he will have done his job.

rcs1000

I'm intrigued by the way ORB gets such a massive difference in DK/WS compared to other pollsters.

Does anybody know why this is?

nunu

SouthamObserver said:

Obama was never going to convince convinced leavers. But if he has made Remainers more likely to vote he will have done his job.

what if he switched remainers to leave.....

SouthamObserver

nunu said:

SouthamObserver said:

Obama was never going to convince convinced leavers. But if he has made Remainers more likely to vote he will have done his job.

what if he switched remainers to leave.....

The ORB Remain percentage looks to be pretty much where it has been for the last month or so.

TOPPING

fpt re sovereignty.

If the people of the UK want to leave the EU now, or every five years from 2020, they can do so.

Pulpstar

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event?id=27538434

Trump unbackable in every single one of tonight's primaries.

Trump vs 50% in Conneticut and Maryland's CDs near DC are the ones to watch tonight.

Delaware and Rhode Island could both be over 60% for Trump.

runnymede

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.

Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.

rcs1000

runnymede said:

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.

Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.

I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.

runnymede

rcs1000 said:

runnymede said:

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.

Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.

I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.

Yes, I agree. I think on the whole it's what the public want. The problem is, it is not what our politicians want.

FrancisUrquhart

Not long now until the whole of Liverpool stops working (or at least turns off Jeremy Kyle and puts on BBC News) and the rest of the day will be dominated by one story.

taffys

rcs1000 said:

runnymede said:

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.

Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.

I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.

Absolutely, but I guess the EU are terrified of a snowball effect. I;ve read that Sweden may look to jump ship if the UK does....Denmark...maybe Holland....

Layne

SouthamObserver said:

Obama was never going to convince convinced leavers. But if he has made Remainers more likely to vote he will have done his job.

Have you considered the swing voters in the middle?

[Deleted User]

I'd be delighted to stay in the EU as a second class member in some sort of affiliate structure, not fully bound by the core but able to trade.

Is this realistically still achievable if we get a very narrow Remain? Or will we simply get absorbed into the Borg Collective over time?

rcs1000

taffys said:

rcs1000 said:

runnymede said:

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.

Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.

I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.

Absolutely, but I guess the EU are terrified of a snowball effect. I;ve read that Sweden may look to jump ship if the UK does....Denmark...maybe Holland....

The Dutch are very keen on the Euro (something like 3:1 agree with the "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands, including more than half of all PVV voters!), so I suspect they won't jump.

But I could definitely see Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and even Poland jump.

rcs1000

runnymede said:

rcs1000 said:

runnymede said:

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.

Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.

I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.

Yes, I agree. I think on the whole it's what the public want. The problem is, it is not what our politicians want.

I think there is a 'conspiracy' by hardcore Remainers to keep EEA off the table, because it is recognised how popular that might be with the bulk of the "not keen on the EU, but quite keen to remain good relationships with our neighbours" crowd.

FrankBooth

rcs1000 said:

runnymede said:

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.

Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.

I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.

With free movement of people?

William_H

ORB seem to get very low don't knows and a high leave.

rcs1000

Patrick said:

I'd be delighted to stay in the EU as a second class member in some sort of affiliate structure, not fully bound by the core but able to trade.

Is this realistically still achievable if we get a very narrow Remain? Or will we simply get absorbed into the Borg Collective over time?

We won't be forced to join the Euro, but the stresses between a Eurozone that continues to integrate and the rest will continue to grow. I think both us, and the Eurozone, will regret not putting together a more sensible series of reforms.

taffys

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

rcs1000 said:

runnymede said:

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.

Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.

I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.

Absolutely, but I guess the EU are terrified of a snowball effect. I;ve read that Sweden may look to jump ship if the UK does....Denmark...maybe Holland....

The Dutch are very keen on the Euro (something like 3:1 agree with the "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands, including more than half of all PVV voters!), so I suspect they won't jump.

But I could definitely see Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and even Poland jump.

If there was a group of non-aligned states with the same sort of deal, Britain would be its natural leader - something else I have a feeling the EU wants to avoid. (and America, for that matter).

rcs1000

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

runnymede said:

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.

Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.

I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.

With free movement of people?

There are varying degrees of free movement, and it's perfectly possible to substantially limit immigration. What it's not possible to do is implement a quota based system.

(Of course, from an economics perspective it's important to remember that tariffs are much less economically distorting than quotas.)

Sandpit

Interesting poll. Not sure how much we should all trust polls, but it's fair to say that the PM's actions over the past few weeks are not going down well with a lot of his own party's members and supporters.

[Deleted User]

rcs1000 said:

Patrick said:

I'd be delighted to stay in the EU as a second class member in some sort of affiliate structure, not fully bound by the core but able to trade.

Is this realistically still achievable if we get a very narrow Remain? Or will we simply get absorbed into the Borg Collective over time?

We won't be forced to join the Euro, but the stresses between a Eurozone that continues to integrate and the rest will continue to grow. I think both us, and the Eurozone, will regret not putting together a more sensible series of reforms.

Fully agree that the Euro is going to be the deal breaker. Some countries like us will never agree to join and the EZ members are in Hotel California. If Brussels is half sensible (so a major caveat right there!) they'll find a workable EZ/non-EZ arrangement. Or the non-EZ countries will ultimately go.

Sean_F

A 4% shift is only margin or error, and we need to see other polls before coming to judgement.

However, there is polling evidence that many voters are unhappy at Obama's intervention.

runnymede

rcs1000 said:

Patrick said:

I'd be delighted to stay in the EU as a second class member in some sort of affiliate structure, not fully bound by the core but able to trade.

Is this realistically still achievable if we get a very narrow Remain? Or will we simply get absorbed into the Borg Collective over time?

We won't be forced to join the Euro, but the stresses between a Eurozone that continues to integrate and the rest will continue to grow. I think both us, and the Eurozone, will regret not putting together a more sensible series of reforms.

I agree it would be hard for us to be forced into the euro, though I am pretty sure in the event of REMAIN this issue will surface again in 5-10 years.

Of more concern for me is that the EU is also advancing on other fronts, in particular justice and home affairs and defence and foreign affairs, which have the capacity to cause a lot of strains over the medium term. And where our government seems unwilling at present to resist.

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

Not long now until the whole of Liverpool stops working (or at least turns off Jeremy Kyle and puts on BBC News) and the rest of the day will be dominated by one story.

Quite. Anything about the EU will be a very distant third on the news today, behind the Hillsborough verdicts and the doctors' strike.

Pulpstar

What is ORB's domestic record like.

They haven't exactly covered themselves in glory in the US race where they had Trump ahead of Cruz in Wisconsin.

Sean_F

http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/157363/labour-mp-naz-shah-backed-plan-relocate-israelis-america

This is rather inflammatory.

Sandpit

logical_song said:

Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480

Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.

Pulpstar

Sandpit said:

logical_song said:

Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480

Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.

Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.

perdix

runnymede said:

rcs1000 said:

Patrick said:

I'd be delighted to stay in the EU as a second class member in some sort of affiliate structure, not fully bound by the core but able to trade.

Is this realistically still achievable if we get a very narrow Remain? Or will we simply get absorbed into the Borg Collective over time?

We won't be forced to join the Euro, but the stresses between a Eurozone that continues to integrate and the rest will continue to grow. I think both us, and the Eurozone, will regret not putting together a more sensible series of reforms.

I agree it would be hard for us to be forced into the euro, though I am pretty sure in the event of REMAIN this issue will surface again in 5-10 years.

Of more concern for me is that the EU is also advancing on other fronts, in particular justice and home affairs and defence and foreign affairs, which have the capacity to cause a lot of strains over the medium term. And where our government seems unwilling at present to resist.

With Theresa as PM we will strongly resist

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

We won't be forced to join the Euro, but the stresses between a Eurozone that continues to integrate and the rest will continue to grow. I think both us, and the Eurozone, will regret not putting together a more sensible series of reforms.

It's never too late. If reform to deal with the Eurozone/non-Eurozone issue becomes more pressing the British government is not going to say, "Sorry our people voted for the status quo."

Personally I suspect that there will be much less pressure for the Eurozone to integrate quickly than most assume. Arguably the Euro even makes institutional integration less pressing because it's such an effective straight-jacket to force member states to behave fiscally.

weejonnie

Toms said:

Relax everybody. They're just POLLS.

No doubt we'll soon be into the 10 a week + a daily yougov that will never alter. (After the LG Elections)

williamglenn

logical_song said:

Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480

"Big league"

I see the campaign has gone full Miliband with Trump attacking Kasich's eating habits.

TheScreamingEagles

Wise words from Sir Lynton Crosby

rcs1000

I'm still struggling with 3% don't knows, won't says. Does anybody really believe that only one in thirty three people has not yet made up their mind?

Sandpit

Good comments from @MaxPB and @rcs1000 on the last thread about the appetite within the EU for the TTIP trade deal if the UK was to leave - leaving Germany isolated in favour of the deal while most of the rest of the EU with don't care or are opposed. Might go some way to explaining Obama's comments last week.

TOPPING

rcs1000 said:

runnymede said:

rcs1000 said:

runnymede said:

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.

Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.

I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.

Yes, I agree. I think on the whole it's what the public want. The problem is, it is not what our politicians want.

I think there is a 'conspiracy' by hardcore Remainers to keep EEA off the table, because it is recognised how popular that might be with the bulk of the "not keen on the EU, but quite keen to remain good relationships with our neighbours" crowd.

We're good like that we kidnapped and replaced Gove's speech writers and since then they do our bidding.

*cackle*

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

I'm still struggling with 3% don't knows, won't says. Does anybody really believe that only one in thirty three people has not yet made up their mind?

Three months before the last general election, 50% of people hadn't made their mind up

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/03/15/fewer-voters-have-made-up-their-mind-on-how-to-vote-than-in-the-past/

Richard_Nabavi

As @rcs1000 points out, the Don't Know/Would Not Vote figure from ORB is very odd. Not only is it massively out of line with other pollsters, it's also intrinsically hugely implausible.

runnymede

Sandpit said:

Good comments from @MaxPB and @rcs1000 on the last thread about the appetite within the EU for the TTIP trade deal if the UK was to leave - leaving Germany isolated in favour of the deal while most of the rest of the EU with don't care or are opposed. Might go some way to explaining Obama's comments last week.

Of course, if the President really thinks we can swing this for him, I am afraid he is kidding himself.

There was an interesting factoid doing the rounds about this earlier this week - the EU has asked for 200 categories of services to be excluded from the TTIP. The US has asked for just four to be excluded.

It shows how much resistance there is in the EU to genuine liberalisation in this area I think. Not terribly helpful for the UK, specialised in services, either.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 1000, 3% does seem dubiously dinky.

TOPPING

FPT @Indigo ask yourself why indeed no serious party has included Brexit in their manifesto.

AlastairMeeks

The betting markets haven't reacted to this poll. The markets seem to be moving for reasons unconnected with polling at present.

Personally, I think the referendum polls should receive a little bit more attention from gamblers than they are presently receiving.

FrancisUrquhart

Austin Reed gone busto...

Sandpit

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

logical_song said:

Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480

Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.

Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.

Yes, which is why I think he might actually win this. He knows where all the bodies are buried and comes at the election from the other side of the fence. His posturing so far has been aimed at winning the nomination, which is now looking certain by tomorrow.

I wonder how many of the get-the-money-out-of-politics crowd who are currently supporting Sanders could be persuaded to back Trump over Hillary in November? Possibly more than expected.

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

rcs1000 said:

runnymede said:

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.

Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.

I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.

Absolutely, but I guess the EU are terrified of a snowball effect. I;ve read that Sweden may look to jump ship if the UK does....Denmark...maybe Holland....

The Dutch are very keen on the Euro (something like 3:1 agree with the "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands, including more than half of all PVV voters!), so I suspect they won't jump.

But I could definitely see Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and even Poland jump.

Poland is an interesting one because until very recently the country was extremely europhile, and then the annexation Donbass/Crimea by Putin happened and pretty much all of the EU shrugged its collective shoulders except Britain who pushed hard for big sanctions. Since then there has been a surge in scepticism and at one point the Poles tried to hitch themselves to Dave's dodgy deal for an opt-out of ever-closer-union. There is even some evidence that they may try and use the Swedish solution to keep themselves out of the Euro perpetually even though the EU have said it isn't possible now.

Indigo

TOPPING said:

fpt re sovereignty.

If the people of the UK want to leave the EU now, or every five years from 2020, they can do so.

We get this tired argument trotted out all the time, it would be nice to hear a different tune.

People would vote for say the Tories proposing to leave as part of their manifesto, and quite likely Labour as well, UKIP not so much. People may well feel a strong desire to leave the EU, but that doesn't mean they will elect just anyone to run their country for five years to achieve it. If what you say is true George Galloway could put "leave" on the front of his manifesto and get 30% of the vote, seem unlikely.

The problem is now no one would believe either of the main parties even if the put it front and square in their manifesto.

tl;dr: A desire, even a rampant desire to be out the EU does not mean you are prepared to inflict a bunch of fecking idiots on your country for five years to achieve it.

[Deleted User]

TOPPING said:

FPT @Indigo ask yourself why indeed no serious party has included Brexit in their manifesto.

I thought UKIP was a serious party. They got way more votes than the LibDems. Attended TV debates etc. You may not like them but.....

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

I'm intrigued by the way ORB gets such a massive difference in DK/WS compared to other pollsters.

Does anybody know why this is?

Before, they used to only have a forced question option.

But they recently tweaked it.

Wanderer

AlastairMeeks said:

The betting markets haven't reacted to this poll. The markets seem to be moving for reasons unconnected with polling at present.

Personally, I think the referendum polls should receive a little bit more attention from gamblers than they are presently receiving.

Agreed. At some point that will surely happen.

rcs1000

runnymede said:

Sandpit said:

Good comments from @MaxPB and @rcs1000 on the last thread about the appetite within the EU for the TTIP trade deal if the UK was to leave - leaving Germany isolated in favour of the deal while most of the rest of the EU with don't care or are opposed. Might go some way to explaining Obama's comments last week.

Of course, if the President really thinks we can swing this for him, I am afraid he is kidding himself.

There was an interesting factoid doing the rounds about this earlier this week - the EU has asked for 200 categories of services to be excluded from the TTIP. The US has asked for just four to be excluded.

It shows how much resistance there is in the EU to genuine liberalisation in this area I think. Not terribly helpful for the UK, specialised in services, either.

(Although if you look through the list of services, a very large number - 30 or 40 - are related to the public provision of health.)

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Max, worth noting Poland was originally against the QMV quota for refugee resettlement from Merkelland, but changed its mind, which irked some in places like the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.

Mr. Meeks, I agree but would add the caveat that polling has recently been shown to be a bit dodgy.

That probably helps Leave more than Remain. Just as it's more socially acceptable to mock 'Tory scum', so it's more socially acceptable to snuggle up to the EU and lambast the 'xenophobes'.

[I still expect Remain to win easily, as fear crystallises closer to the date].

TheScreamingEagles

Looks like after 27 years, the Hillsborough families are finally getting justice.

runnymede

Indigo said:

TOPPING said:

fpt re sovereignty.

If the people of the UK want to leave the EU now, or every five years from 2020, they can do so.

We get this tired argument trotted out all the time, it would be nice to hear a different tune.

People would vote for say the Tories proposing to leave as part of their manifesto, and quite likely Labour as well, UKIP not so much. People may well feel a strong desire to leave the EU, but that doesn't mean they will elect just anyone to run their country for five years to achieve it. If what you say is true George Galloway could put "leave" on the front of his manifesto and get 30% of the vote, seem unlikely.

The problem is now no one would believe either of the main parties even if the put it front and square in their manifesto.

tl;dr: A desire, even a rampant desire to be out the EU does not mean you are prepared to inflict a bunch of fecking idiots on your country for five years to achieve it.

Labour had it in their manifesto in 1983, of course.

Wanderer

Richard_Nabavi said:

As @rcs1000 points out, the Don't Know/Would Not Vote figure from ORB is very odd. Not only is it massively out of line with other pollsters, it's also intrinsically hugely implausible.

Hmm. Yes, it's bizarre. They must be squeezing DKs in the way ask the question?

FrancisUrquhart

Not looking good...

http://order-order.com/2016/04/26/naz-shah-the-jews-are-rallying/

MaxPB

Something else I've been thinking about - a reason for Germany wanting to keep us in the EU is that we have, for the last 20 years or so, taken up the "bad guy" or obstructionist role. It has won us few friends and made us many enemies in Brussels, but most countries recognise the need for a country to take up that role. I think the German government worry that if Britain leaves, it will become the lone voice of dissent because no one else would be willing to take up a role that will leave them friendless like us.

Indigo

runnymede said:

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

We are told that Dave was offered the option, but turned it down because he wanted to "dock" the UK with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11658810/David-Camerons-has-finally-confirmed-that-he-is-pro-European-and-wants-us-to-stay-in.html

Jacques Delors emerged from retirement to propose a “privileged partnership” for Britain, based on free movement of goods and services but not political integration. Guy Verhofstadt, the federalist Euro-liberal leader, made a similar offer, calling it “associate membership”.

But, to the incredulity of Continental Europhiles, David Cameron is pushing only for token changes, most of which can be achieved through domestic legislation without requiring treaty change. He has ruled out campaigning to leave the EU. He has told Jean-Claude Juncker that he intends to use the referendum to, as the President of the European Commission puts it, “dock Britain to the EU”.

Europhile to his well manicured fingernails I am afraid.. and a liar.

runnymede

MaxPB said:

Something else I've been thinking about - a reason for Germany wanting to keep us in the EU is that we have, for the last 20 years or so, taken up the "bad guy" or obstructionist role. It has won us few friends and made us many enemies in Brussels, but most countries recognise the need for a country to take up that role. I think the German government worry that if Britain leaves, it will become the lone voice of dissent because no one else would be willing to take up a role that will leave them friendless like us.

What would Germany be dissenting from, exactly? It is 100% behind the move to European federation.

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

Not looking good...

http://order-order.com/2016/04/26/naz-shah-the-jews-are-rallying/

Like a reverse Netanyahu.

JenS

Hillsborough disaster inquest rules 96 victims were unlawfully killed
and no behaviour on the part of football supporters which caused or contributed to the deaths.

runnymede

rcs1000 said:

runnymede said:

Sandpit said:

Good comments from @MaxPB and @rcs1000 on the last thread about the appetite within the EU for the TTIP trade deal if the UK was to leave - leaving Germany isolated in favour of the deal while most of the rest of the EU with don't care or are opposed. Might go some way to explaining Obama's comments last week.

Of course, if the President really thinks we can swing this for him, I am afraid he is kidding himself.

There was an interesting factoid doing the rounds about this earlier this week - the EU has asked for 200 categories of services to be excluded from the TTIP. The US has asked for just four to be excluded.

It shows how much resistance there is in the EU to genuine liberalisation in this area I think. Not terribly helpful for the UK, specialised in services, either.

(Although if you look through the list of services, a very large number - 30 or 40 - are related to the public provision of health.)

Sure. Still leaves rather a lot though....?

TCPoliticalBetting

FrancisUrquhart said:

Not looking good...

http://order-order.com/2016/04/26/naz-shah-the-jews-are-rallying/

Dynamo11 • 7 minutes ago "One of the moderates I hear so much about these days"

upset • 6 minutes ago "She is moderately anti-Semitic, she only wants them to be deported."

comments from Guido website.

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like after 27 years, the Hillsborough families are finally getting justice.

Wow! 96 unlawful killings according to the BBC. Finally justice is delivered.

TheScreamingEagles

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like after 27 years, the Hillsborough families are finally getting justice.

Wow! 96 unlawful killings according to the BBC. Finally justice is delivered.

And this

7) Jury agrees - there was no behaviour on part of supporters which contributed to situation

Wanderer

Indigo said:

TOPPING said:

fpt re sovereignty.

If the people of the UK want to leave the EU now, or every five years from 2020, they can do so.

We get this tired argument trotted out all the time, it would be nice to hear a different tune.

People would vote for say the Tories proposing to leave as part of their manifesto, and quite likely Labour as well, UKIP not so much. People may well feel a strong desire to leave the EU, but that doesn't mean they will elect just anyone to run their country for five years to achieve it. If what you say is true George Galloway could put "leave" on the front of his manifesto and get 30% of the vote, seem unlikely.

The problem is now no one would believe either of the main parties even if the put it front and square in their manifesto.

tl;dr: A desire, even a rampant desire to be out the EU does not mean you are prepared to inflict a bunch of fecking idiots on your country for five years to achieve it.

Though I have often been told that I shouldn't let the effect of Leave on domestic politics worry me. Eg, that if it looks like it would lead to five or ten years of a government I don't like that is a ridiculous reason for voting Remain. Well, that's a different view I guess.

At all events, the point you are making applies to pretty much any single issue in a representative democracy. If I'm in favour if renationalising the utilities but don't want Jezza what can I do?

Indigo

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

logical_song said:

Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480

Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.

Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.

Campaign contributions are a matter of public record, difficult to spin them as corruption.

runnymede

Wanderer said:

Indigo said:

TOPPING said:

fpt re sovereignty.

If the people of the UK want to leave the EU now, or every five years from 2020, they can do so.

We get this tired argument trotted out all the time, it would be nice to hear a different tune.

People would vote for say the Tories proposing to leave as part of their manifesto, and quite likely Labour as well, UKIP not so much. People may well feel a strong desire to leave the EU, but that doesn't mean they will elect just anyone to run their country for five years to achieve it. If what you say is true George Galloway could put "leave" on the front of his manifesto and get 30% of the vote, seem unlikely.

The problem is now no one would believe either of the main parties even if the put it front and square in their manifesto.

tl;dr: A desire, even a rampant desire to be out the EU does not mean you are prepared to inflict a bunch of fecking idiots on your country for five years to achieve it.

Though I have often been told that I shouldn't let the effect of Leave on domestic politics worry me. Eg, that if it looks like it would lead to five or ten years of a government I don't like that is a ridiculous reason for voting Remain. Well, that's a different view I guess.

At all events, the point you are making applies to pretty much any single issue in a representative democracy. If I'm in favour if renationalising the utilities but don't want Jezza what can I do?

This is an argument for more referendums. Which I personally support.

TCPoliticalBetting

Sean_F said:

A 4% shift is only margin or error, and we need to see other polls before coming to judgement. However, there is polling evidence that many voters are unhappy at Obama's intervention.

Is "REMAINtheGovt" next cunning stunt going to be Mrs Merkel or M. Hollande to help things along?

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like after 27 years, the Hillsborough families are finally getting justice.

Looking forward to a statement from Kelvin McKenzie.

Plato_Says

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

Me too. The rancour generated over SIndy surprised many - and that axe is ground every day in one form or another. I don't think we'll see anything as venemous over the EU ref, but the issues will rankle and the enlarged core of Leavers are likely to be pretty unimpressed.

Indigo

TOPPING said:

FPT @Indigo ask yourself why indeed no serious party has included Brexit in their manifesto.

Because they like disenfranchising a third or more of the electorate ?

David_Evershed

Surely most people are not that engaged with the referendum this far ahead of the vote.

So margin of error +/- 10% on any figure ?

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like after 27 years, the Hillsborough families are finally getting justice.

Wow! 96 unlawful killings according to the BBC. Finally justice is delivered.

And this

7) Jury agrees - there was no behaviour on part of supporters which contributed to situation

Yes. About bloody time too. The relationship between football fans and authorities in the 1980s was always going to end in a tragedy with many innocent victims.

Finally, 96 people who just wanted to watch a football match get justice.

Pulpstar

Indigo said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

logical_song said:

Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480

Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.

Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.

Campaign contributions are a matter of public record, difficult to spin them as corruption.

It's not corruption because that's the system. People are expressing their dislike of the system through voting Bernie and Trump !

Indigo

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

logical_song said:

Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480

Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.

Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.

Yes, which is why I think he might actually win this. He knows where all the bodies are buried and comes at the election from the other side of the fence. His posturing so far has been aimed at winning the nomination, which is now looking certain by tomorrow.

I got the distinct impression watching him on the news that he is just started rowing like mad for the centre, suddenly seemed much more moderate and emollient, seemed much more self controlled, much more soberly dressed etc. I think he thinks the nomination is effectively in the bag and it's time to start the marathon run for the general.

logical_song

Indigo said:

TOPPING said:

FPT @Indigo ask yourself why indeed no serious party has included Brexit in their manifesto.

Because they like disenfranchising a third or more of the electorate ?

No, probably not.

David_Evershed

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like after 27 years, the Hillsborough families are finally getting justice.

Wow! 96 unlawful killings according to the BBC. Finally justice is delivered.

No one has yet been prosecuted.

And justice delayed (if and when it is done) is justice denied.

tlg86

As much as I think big (perhaps unlawful) mistakes were made by South Yorkshire Police, I'm not very happy to see Sheffield Wednesday getting a kicking.

Sandpit

Indigo said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

logical_song said:

Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480

Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.

Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.

Campaign contributions are a matter of public record, difficult to spin them as corruption.

But very easy to spin the recipient of them *to the general public* as being beholden to their rich paymasters.

Indigo

runnymede said:

Labour had it in their manifesto in 1983, of course.

Of famous memory, sadly alongside unilateral disarmament, abolishing the house of lords and renationalising BT, BAe and BSC

geoffw

ORB's previous polls had DK/WNV at 5%.
Around a quarter of the other pollsters.
Must be the methodology.

Plato_Says

I've read several articles mentioning Poland over the last month or so.

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

rcs1000 said:

runnymede said:

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

The last thing the EU will want is a UK still (just) in but forced by public opinion to be frustrating and obstructionist at every turn.

Perhaps they should start campaigning for 'LEAVE'. I think in their shoes that is exactly what I would be doing, gently. Floating the EEA option for example.

This is less fantastic than it sounds. Jacques Delors in the not-so-distant past suggested the UK could opt out of the political elements of the EU and have a 'privileged partnership' based mostly on trade. And the Germans more recently have hinted (behind the bluster) that such a deal might be on the table, too.

It's actually the UK government that has insisted (and still insists) on perpetuating the current half-in, half-out situation which suits nobody and will become increasingly unsustainable as the years proceed.

I think there would be a comfortable majority for that solution in the UK.

Absolutely, but I guess the EU are terrified of a snowball effect. I;ve read that Sweden may look to jump ship if the UK does....Denmark...maybe Holland....

The Dutch are very keen on the Euro (something like 3:1 agree with the "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands, including more than half of all PVV voters!), so I suspect they won't jump.

But I could definitely see Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and even Poland jump.

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

As much as I think big (perhaps unlawful) mistakes were made by South Yorkshire Police, I'm not very happy to see Sheffield Wednesday getting a kicking.

Wednesday are culpable, but it could have been a few other clubs.

Stadium safety isn't like it is these days.

Mortimer

Establishment fail to adequately understand the discontent of the population shocker!

David_Evershed

TOPPING said:

FPT @Indigo ask yourself why indeed no serious party has included Brexit in their manifesto.

UKIP put it in their European election manifesto and came first.

TheScreamingEagles

Kudos to Andy Burnham for helping accelerate this process.

Indigo

Plato_Says said:

Patrick said:

I wonder what the political ramifications of a very, very narrow Remain are? Basically half the country want out. That can't be ignored. Bit likewise basically half want in too. Actually I suspect this is not quite true and that over half WANT out but over half will VOTE in because they have been successfully spooked. I smell a neverendum coming.

Me too. The rancour generated over SIndy surprised many - and that axe is ground every day in one form or another. I don't think we'll see anything as venemous over the EU ref, but the issues will rankle and the enlarged core of Leavers are likely to be pretty unimpressed.

and Cameron is going to bugger off rapidly and leave someone else to sweep up the mess, he will be popular

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

A 4% shift is only margin or error, and we need to see other polls before coming to judgement.

However, there is polling evidence that many voters are unhappy at Obama's intervention.

I was very surprised at how unsubtle the intervention was.

To many voters, it looks like he flew into the UK, at David Cameron's invitation, said 'vote Remain, or else' and then flew out again.

It's no wonder that hasn't been well received.

Pulpstar

geoffw said:

ORB's previous polls had DK/WNV at 5%.
Around a quarter of the other pollsters.
Must be the methodology.

They has Trump 10% ahead of Cruz in Wisconsin. I really wouldn't put much stock in them.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

As much as I think big (perhaps unlawful) mistakes were made by South Yorkshire Police, I'm not very happy to see Sheffield Wednesday getting a kicking.

Wednesday are culpable, but it could have been a few other clubs.

Stadium safety isn't like it is these days.

Exactly, this could have happened at White Hart Lane, Villa Park....even Wembley. Semi finals and finals were notorious for fans trying to get in without tickets.

runnymede

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

A 4% shift is only margin or error, and we need to see other polls before coming to judgement.

However, there is polling evidence that many voters are unhappy at Obama's intervention.

I was very surprised at how unsubtle the intervention was.

To many voters, it looks like he flew into the UK, at David Cameron's invitation, said 'vote Remain, or else' and then flew out again.

It's no wonder that hasn't been well received.

Do you think people were impressed by the 'interesting' decision to meet the royal children?

Plato_Says

Sandpit said:

logical_song said:

Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480

Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.

And horribly accurate too - she's got more skeletons than Forest Lawn.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kudos to Andy Burnham for helping accelerate this process.

I still don't get why Jack Straw refused to look at this.

Indigo

Pulpstar said:

Indigo said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

logical_song said:

Trump calls Hillary "crooked" and wants to beat her "bigly".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36136480

Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.

Trump's made campaign contributions to all and sundry in the past, he is poacher turned gamekeeper on this one.

Campaign contributions are a matter of public record, difficult to spin them as corruption.

It's not corruption because that's the system. People are expressing their dislike of the system through voting Bernie and Trump !

So Cruz had the masterstroke of trying to stitch up the election by doing a deal with someone about as far away from as you can get inside the big church of the Republican party, whaat could possibly go wrong

Trump's statement is a hoot

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/25/donald-trumps-reaction-to-the-cruz-kasich-alliance-was-epic/

Because of me, everyone now sees that the Republican primary system is totally rigged. When two candidates who have no path to victory get together to stop a candidate who is expanding the party by millions of voters, (all of whom will drop out if I am not in the race) it is yet another example of everything that is wrong in Washington and our political system. This horrible act of desperation, from two campaigns who have totally failed, makes me even more determined, for the good of the Republican Party and our country, to prevail!