Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.
How fortunate that Trump isn't in the pay of the 1%, what with him being a billionaire and all that.
Isn't that part of why Trump does so well though? He is rich enough that he can't be corrupted like Hillary or Cruz.
In every single debate Trump is going to wave around Hillary's donor list and compare it to his, in every single response he will tear her links to Wall Street to shreds and he will be absolutely ruthless in doing so.
Is - the multiple bankrupt - Donald Trump really that rich? Or is he a thin sliver of equity on top of a bunch of highly leveraged properties?
Either way, he seems financially independent and not forever sniffing the air for 'foundation' donations like a bisto kid, a la Billary.
If cap rates for commercial and residential real estate were to return to historic levels, I'm not sure that Mr Trump would be solvent.
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
What a nutcase. How in the name of heaven could the EU 'expropriate' our security council seat? What's the mechanism?
Do people really take this utter garbage even remotely seriously? Mind you, it's a useful sanity test.
The mechanism is that the Brussels blob puts incredible pressure on a weak PM and he folds. This mechanism has successfully forced Greece and Italy to think again about their choice of democratically elected government. You think Corbyn or anyone on the left or the Euroluvvie right in this country would last even five minutes longer?
@rowenamason: Naz Shah has stepped down from her role as PPS to the shadow chancellor John McDonnell
Good. Labour seemingly have a big problem they need to deal with.
Not that they will of course. One minor resignation from the shadow juniors is unremarkable. She should be forced to resign the party whip for her comments.
She's on the HASC too. Surely that's untenable for starters. What's Vaz doing about this...
On a committee looking into anti semitism if I heard correctly - what an inspired choice.
Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.
How fortunate that Trump isn't in the pay of the 1%, what with him being a billionaire and all that.
Isn't that part of why Trump does so well though? He is rich enough that he can't be corrupted like Hillary or Cruz.
In every single debate Trump is going to wave around Hillary's donor list and compare it to his, in every single response he will tear her links to Wall Street to shreds and he will be absolutely ruthless in doing so.
Is - the multiple bankrupt - Donald Trump really that rich? Or is he a thin sliver of equity on top of a bunch of highly leveraged properties?
Don't knock it, Os & Dodgy Dave have found no other way.
I think the comparison is with the seats 'up for grabs'.
That said, do you honestly think Labour will have improved on either metric?
Possibly - I think there is an outside chance Labour could improve on their 2011 performance (when they lost to the Tories by 1% in the National Estimated Vote).
My prediction as of now would be that the Tories will win this year's NEV by 1-3%, but a tie or a tiny Labour lead wouldn't completely shock me.
So, you don't think they will but hope that they do.
Luckily membership of the EU would prevent the UK falling into that protectionist central-planning trap even if we elected Jeremy Corbyn as PM.
Richard you've lost it IMHO. SeanT was right to give you and NPXMP special prizes for buttlickery. The EU protecting from central control and planning. Err...yeah right. FFS.
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
Leave engaging in Project Fear? Say it ain't so?
To be fair, it's more Project Bring Hairy Ball Sacks from Leavers
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
What a nutcase. How in the name of heaven could the EU 'expropriate' our security council seat? What's the mechanism?
Do people really take this utter garbage even remotely seriously? Mind you, it's a useful sanity test.
The mechanism is that the Brussels blob puts incredible pressure on a weak PM and he folds. This mechanism has successfully forced Greece and Italy to think again about their choice of democratically elected government. You think Corbyn or anyone on the left or the Euroluvvie right in this country would last even five minutes longer?
Blimey. Someone does take it seriously. Just blimey.
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
They'd have to get it past the Security Council- do you think we might use our veto?
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
Is that before or after they abolish the monarchy and force us to have Tony Blair as our president for life?
Luckily membership of the EU would prevent the UK falling into that protectionist central-planning trap even if we elected Jeremy Corbyn as PM.
Richard you've lost it IMHO. SeanT was right to give you and NPXMP special prizes for buttlickery. The EU protecting from central control and planning. Err...yeah right. FFS.
Yes, the EU is actually quite good on cracking down on state intervention and subsidies. It's one of the successes of the EU. Only the most purblind could possibly disagree with that.
Just listened to the 1 o'clock news. A Vote Leave spokesman said that the British people wont have a vote over whether Albania can join the EU. He then pointed out that 5% of their population currently living in the UK is in jail.
The interviewer then reminded him that we have an absolute veto over whether Albania or any other country can join the EU. "The government does but the people don't".
I understand the desire to win at all costs but to try to mislead is absolutely not the way to go. People listening will have hated it.
The people don't get a vote on new entrants to the EU so he is right. It's why they keep bringing up membership for Turkey, our government are in favour even though the people would be close to 99% against. Obviously membership for Turkey is unlikely for reasons people have pointed out, but our government are in favour and are under no obligation to give the people a say on new entrants.
The other thing to keep an eye on is that there is no referendum lock on accession treaties, they are explicitly excluded from the EU Act 2011, so the EU and/or the government can attach anything else it wants in the way of giving up powers to Brussels and the people get no say on the matter, just our Europhile cabinet.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP 3h ago Why is @frankfieldteam in a minority in backing the policies that will benefit many Labour voters - cheaper food and higher wages?
Does Mike or anyone else have a record of how online and phone polls compared in terms of their overall accuracy at the 2015 GE ? I'm aware that the received wisdom is that phone polls are generally the more accurate, but can't recall why this should be. One very real reason tending to favour online polls is that one would assume it would tend to eliminate or at least greatly reduce the "shy" element, in that one is not expressing one's views directly to another human being.
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
They'd have to get it past the Security Council- do you think we might use our veto?
Luckily membership of the EU would prevent the UK falling into that protectionist central-planning trap even if we elected Jeremy Corbyn as PM.
Richard you've lost it IMHO. SeanT was right to give you and NPXMP special prizes for buttlickery. The EU protecting from central control and planning. Err...yeah right. FFS.
Yes, the EU is actually quite good on cracking down on state intervention and subsidies. It's one of the successes of the EU. Only the most purblind could possibly disagree with that.
I'm purblind then. The EU machine doesn't share or devolve power. They'll happily bully national governments all day long - yes, including on the issue of national level protections - but they'll not surrender an iota of power to anyone for anything ever. The journey to a superstate is planned and will never be surrendered. They want to build an EU army. They want to harmonise tax rates. They want to make nation states irrelevant. Who's the blind one here really? Are you honestly fine with where they are going? They're like the terminator - they can't be bargained with, they can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity or remorse or fear. And they absolutely will not stop, ever, until nations states are dead. But I quite like my nation state.
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
Is that before or after they abolish the monarchy and force us to have Tony Blair as our president for life?
Just listened to the 1 o'clock news. A Vote Leave spokesman said that the British people wont have a vote over whether Albania can join the EU. He then pointed out that 5% of their population currently living in the UK is in jail.
The interviewer then reminded him that we have an absolute veto over whether Albania or any other country can join the EU. "The government does but the people don't".
I understand the desire to win at all costs but to try to mislead is absolutely not the way to go. People listening will have hated it.
The people don't get a vote on new entrants to the EU so he is right. It's why they keep bringing up membership for Turkey, our government are in favour even though the people would be close to 99% against. Obviously membership for Turkey is unlikely for reasons people have pointed out, but our government are in favour and are under no obligation to give the people a say on new entrants.
The other thing to keep an eye on is that there is no referendum lock on accession treaties, they are explicitly excluded from the EU Act 2011, so the EU and/or the government can attach anything else it wants in the way of giving up powers to Brussels and the people get no say on the matter, just our Europhile cabinet.
The people get to vote in general elections. That's how it works here.
Re, the UK losing the UN security council seat, my old university neighbour, now a senior FCO official, is vehement about how this has to happen and how the FCO supports it (in private).
Survation and IG Group announce EU Referendum polling partnership
London, Tuesday 26 April, 2016 – Survation, a leader in political polling and IG Group, a global leader in online trading have today announced a new partnership to deliver a series of polls ahead of the EU Referendum on 23rd June 2016.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP 3h ago Why is @frankfieldteam in a minority in backing the policies that will benefit many Labour voters - cheaper food and higher wages?
Field's comments to vote leave are food for thought for anybody thinking labour voters will come flocking to remain's cause in June.
I'm purblind then. The EU machine doesn't share or devolve power. They'll happily bully national governments all day long - yes, including on the issue of national level protections - but they'll not surrender an iota of power to anyone for anything ever. The journey to a superstate is planned and will never be surrendered. They want to build an EU army. They want to harmonise tax rates. They want to make nation states irrelevant. Who's the blind one here really? Are you honestly fine with where they are going? They're like the terminator - they can't be bargained with and they simply will not stop, ever, until nations states are dead. But I quite like my nation state.
Yeah, yeah, I get all that, but in respect of the Security Council (a) What's the 'EU machine', and who are 'they'? (b) What power do they have to bully us? (c) Even if they bully us, what power do they have over France and the USA, both of whom would veto any such change in any conceivable world?
It's 100%, batshit-crazy, tin-foil-hat, green-ink bonkers. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP 3h ago Why is @frankfieldteam in a minority in backing the policies that will benefit many Labour voters - cheaper food and higher wages?
Field's comments to vote leave are food for thought for anybody thinking labour voters will come flocking to remain's cause in June.
We are using some of his points in SYorks - good reception.
I'm purblind then. The EU machine doesn't share or devolve power. They'll happily bully national governments all day long - yes, including on the issue of national level protections - but they'll not surrender an iota of power to anyone for anything ever. The journey to a superstate is planned and will never be surrendered. They want to build an EU army. They want to harmonise tax rates. They want to make nation states irrelevant. Who's the blind one here really? Are you honestly fine with where they are going? They're like the terminator - they can't be bargained with and they simply will not stop, ever, until nations states are dead. But I quite like my nation state.
Yeah, yeah, I get all that, but in respect of the Security Council (a) What's the 'EU machine', and who are 'they'? (b) What power do they have to bully us? (c) Even if they bully us, what power do they have over France and the USA, both of whom would veto any such change in any conceivable world?
It's 100%, batshit-crazy, tin-foil-hat, green-ink bonkers. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality.
I'm purblind then. The EU machine doesn't share or devolve power. They'll happily bully national governments all day long - yes, including on the issue of national level protections - but they'll not surrender an iota of power to anyone for anything ever. The journey to a superstate is planned and will never be surrendered. They want to build an EU army. They want to harmonise tax rates. They want to make nation states irrelevant. Who's the blind one here really? Are you honestly fine with where they are going? They're like the terminator - they can't be bargained with and they simply will not stop, ever, until nations states are dead. But I quite like my nation state.
Yeah, yeah, I get all that, but in respect of the Security Council (a) What's the 'EU machine', and who are 'they'? (b) What power do they have to bully us? (c) Even if they bully us, what power do they have over France and the USA, both of whom would veto any such change in any conceivable world?
It's 100%, batshit-crazy, tin-foil-hat, green-ink bonkers. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality.
Trump on 50 and Cruz nowhere vs Hillary. The nomination race is over.
Anyone banking on the Republicans staying divided and handing the White House to Hillary may be in for a disappointment. They'll be solidly behind Trump before the convention.
Quite interesting. You only have to shift the needle on the black vote to 30% in the red column and the Republican wins. The Democrats won't get 93% this time round and I think Trump will be quite good at undermining Hillary's soft demographic block vote.
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
What a nutcase. How in the name of heaven could the EU 'expropriate' our security council seat? What's the mechanism?
Do people really take this utter garbage even remotely seriously? Mind you, it's a useful sanity test.
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
What a nutcase. How in the name of heaven could the EU 'expropriate' our security council seat? What's the mechanism? Do people really take this utter garbage even remotely seriously? Mind you, it's a useful sanity test.
A typical response.... What gives you the right to label this retired 57 year old Colonel as a nutcase? Is chucking abuse on a person who dares to make the case for LEAVE the best you can do? Maybe, just maybe you should concede that on security and military matters he knows more than you ever will? "Colonel Richard Justin Kemp CBE (born 14 April 1959) is a retired British Army officer who served from 1977 to 2006. He was Commander of some British Forces in Afghanistan, an infantry battalion Commanding Officer, worked for the Joint Intelligence Committee and COBR and completed 14 operational tours of duty around the globe."
I would like to know more how they reached this decision.
From what I've read in the last few minutes I think the people by the turnstiles were unaware that there was any problem in the grounds. According to wikipedia, the Taylor report described them moving in to the stadium at a fast walk. I'm not sure how that makes them responsible, given that's how they'd be walking in if there wasn't a problem.
You would have to have been psycic to know, at the back of the crowd, that there was a problem at the front.
People blaming the fans have zero, zero, zero knowledge of how crowd dynamics work. By the time someone knows they are in a crush it is too late to individually do anything.
It is some impressive level of ignorant pseudo intellectual wank to try and blame members of the crowd.
I'm purblind then. The EU machine doesn't share or devolve power. They'll happily bully national governments all day long - yes, including on the issue of national level protections - but they'll not surrender an iota of power to anyone for anything ever. The journey to a superstate is planned and will never be surrendered. They want to build an EU army. They want to harmonise tax rates. They want to make nation states irrelevant. Who's the blind one here really? Are you honestly fine with where they are going? They're like the terminator - they can't be bargained with and they simply will not stop, ever, until nations states are dead. But I quite like my nation state.
Yeah, yeah, I get all that, but in respect of the Security Council (a) What's the 'EU machine', and who are 'they'? (b) What power do they have to bully us? (c) Even if they bully us, what power do they have over France and the USA, both of whom would veto any such change in any conceivable world?
It's 100%, batshit-crazy, tin-foil-hat, green-ink bonkers. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality.
Just listened to the 1 o'clock news. A Vote Leave spokesman said that the British people wont have a vote over whether Albania can join the EU. He then pointed out that 5% of their population currently living in the UK is in jail.
The interviewer then reminded him that we have an absolute veto over whether Albania or any other country can join the EU. "The government does but the people don't".
I understand the desire to win at all costs but to try to mislead is absolutely not the way to go. People listening will have hated it.
The people don't get a vote on new entrants to the EU so he is right. It's why they keep bringing up membership for Turkey, our government are in favour even though the people would be close to 99% against. Obviously membership for Turkey is unlikely for reasons people have pointed out, but our government are in favour and are under no obligation to give the people a say on new entrants.
The other thing to keep an eye on is that there is no referendum lock on accession treaties, they are explicitly excluded from the EU Act 2011, so the EU and/or the government can attach anything else it wants in the way of giving up powers to Brussels and the people get no say on the matter, just our Europhile cabinet.
The people get to vote in general elections. That's how it works here.
We have been there and done that. Gordon signs it, Cast Iron Dave says "oops too late".
I'm purblind then. The EU machine doesn't share or devolve power. They'll happily bully national governments all day long - yes, including on the issue of national level protections - but they'll not surrender an iota of power to anyone for anything ever. The journey to a superstate is planned and will never be surrendered. They want to build an EU army. They want to harmonise tax rates. They want to make nation states irrelevant. Who's the blind one here really? Are you honestly fine with where they are going? They're like the terminator - they can't be bargained with and they simply will not stop, ever, until nations states are dead. But I quite like my nation state.
Yeah, yeah, I get all that, but in respect of the Security Council (a) What's the 'EU machine', and who are 'they'? (b) What power do they have to bully us? (c) Even if they bully us, what power do they have over France and the USA, both of whom would veto any such change in any conceivable world?
It's 100%, batshit-crazy, tin-foil-hat, green-ink bonkers. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality.
Hmmm something in the water down Sussex way.
Good Sussex common-sense!
I was hoping you would say you only drink good Sussex fizz.
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
What a nutcase. How in the name of heaven could the EU 'expropriate' our security council seat? What's the mechanism? Do people really take this utter garbage even remotely seriously? Mind you, it's a useful sanity test.
A typical response.... What gives you the right to label this retired 57 year old Colonel as a nutcase?
Was the 'nutcase' jibe not aimed at the person giving undue prominence to his statement?
Far too many striking Smiling Jemimas on my fb newsfeed/various liveblogs today. Anecdote alert: out of all my mates it is the women junior Docs who are the most forthright.
Working more weekends and less week days is possibly a big factor?
I'm purblind then. The EU machine doesn't share or devolve power. They'll happily bully national governments all day long - yes, including on the issue of national level protections - but they'll not surrender an iota of power to anyone for anything ever. The journey to a superstate is planned and will never be surrendered. They want to build an EU army. They want to harmonise tax rates. They want to make nation states irrelevant. Who's the blind one here really? Are you honestly fine with where they are going? They're like the terminator - they can't be bargained with and they simply will not stop, ever, until nations states are dead. But I quite like my nation state.
Yeah, yeah, I get all that, but in respect of the Security Council (a) What's the 'EU machine', and who are 'they'? (b) What power do they have to bully us? (c) Even if they bully us, what power do they have over France and the USA, both of whom would veto any such change in any conceivable world?
It's 100%, batshit-crazy, tin-foil-hat, green-ink bonkers. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality.
Not blunt, incoherent and offensive. Maybe you should lie down in a darkened room for a month or two ?
You told us it was 100% bat shit crazy to think the government would pay back that £1.7bn, and then it did, you have no credibility at all on this matter, sorry.
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
What a nutcase. How in the name of heaven could the EU 'expropriate' our security council seat? What's the mechanism?
Do people really take this utter garbage even remotely seriously? Mind you, it's a useful sanity test.
Well, quite. And the practical effect was what, exactly?
And Leavers wonder why they are sometimes accused of being fruitcakes and nutcases. You might expect them to counter the accusation by avoiding fruitcake positions, but, no, they keep coming back with more.
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Is that somewhat priced in when the NEV is computed?
Yes, but you are reliant on the academics getting the maths right. There was a particular problem last parliament for them with the rise of UKIP as they had very little meaningful data to go at the time as to how to scale up the votes from where they were cast to a national level.
By contrast, comparing the same seats in the cycle (almost - all out elections mess it up a little), gives a much firmer basis for comparison.
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
What a nutcase. How in the name of heaven could the EU 'expropriate' our security council seat? What's the mechanism? Do people really take this utter garbage even remotely seriously? Mind you, it's a useful sanity test.
A typical response.... What gives you the right to label this retired 57 year old Colonel as a nutcase? Is chucking abuse on a person who dares to make the case for LEAVE the best you can do? Maybe, just maybe you should concede that on security and military matters he knows more than you ever will? "Colonel Richard Justin Kemp CBE (born 14 April 1959) is a retired British Army officer who served from 1977 to 2006. He was Commander of some British Forces in Afghanistan, an infantry battalion Commanding Officer, worked for the Joint Intelligence Committee and COBR and completed 14 operational tours of duty around the globe."
On reading it LOOKS as if the EU would like a seat on an expanded UNSC and in the meantime ensure that France and UK vote on what is best for the EU - not necessarily France and the UK.
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU. Separately may I say how wonderful it is to see the joy and relief from the Hillsborough families and trust that manslaughter charges will follow? I assume the ‘Sun’ tomorrow will have a front page apology from Kelvin McKenzie and Boris will no doubt issue a similar public apology. The verdict will hopefully give the families some closure and that they can live their lives knowing that their cause has been absolutely vindicated
Why are the families calling for current head of the South Yorkshire plod and ambulance service to be removed? Unless they had any direct link to the incident, I don't see why they should be sacked for the sins of people 20+ years ago. Those responsible should be held to account.
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
What a nutcase. How in the name of heaven could the EU 'expropriate' our security council seat? What's the mechanism? Do people really take this utter garbage even remotely seriously? Mind you, it's a useful sanity test.
A typical response.... What gives you the right to label this retired 57 year old Colonel as a nutcase? Is chucking abuse on a person who dares to make the case for LEAVE the best you can do? Maybe, just maybe you should concede that on security and military matters he knows more than you ever will? "Colonel Richard Justin Kemp CBE (born 14 April 1959) is a retired British Army officer who served from 1977 to 2006. He was Commander of some British Forces in Afghanistan, an infantry battalion Commanding Officer, worked for the Joint Intelligence Committee and COBR and completed 14 operational tours of duty around the globe."
On reading it LOOKS as if the EU would like a seat on an expanded UNSC and in the meantime ensure that France and UK vote on what is best for the EU - not necessarily France and the UK.
Recalls, in addition, that within the UN the EU is represented by a multiplicity of actors: the President of the European Council, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, the European Commission and the EU delegations, as well as by its 28 Member States, two of which (France and the United Kingdom) are permanent veto-holding members of the UN Security Council (UNSC); insists on the fact that according to the Treaty the EU Member States are obliged to coordinate their action in all international forums;
Does Mike or anyone else have a record of how online and phone polls compared in terms of their overall accuracy at the 2015 GE ? I'm aware that the received wisdom is that phone polls are generally the more accurate, but can't recall why this should be. One very real reason tending to favour online polls is that one would assume it would tend to eliminate or at least greatly reduce the "shy" element, in that one is not expressing one's views directly to another human being.
Online polls sample the subset of the population who fill out online polls. I don't think it is that representative of the wider, more disinterested population - and the error is compounded especially for turnout amongst 18-30s. The 18-30s filling out online polls are far more likely to vote than those who do not.
It is written into the Treaty of European Union (Lisbon) that:
"Member States which are also members of the United Nations Security Council will concert and keep the other Member States and the High Representative fully informed. Member States which are members of the Security Council will, in the execution of their functions, defend the positions and the interests of the Union, without prejudice to their responsibilities under the provisions of the United Nations Charter."
@rowenamason: Naz Shah has stepped down from her role as PPS to the shadow chancellor John McDonnell
Of course she has.
She needs the time to work on her "resettlement plan" .... train time tables to finish, camps to be planned, guards to be recruited, race assignment qualifications.
And a final solution as to where the conference of interested parties is to held. Springtime in Berlin is nice, down by lake Wannsee. Couldn't possibly pick a better spot.
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
"However, in October 2011, a row between the United Kingdom and its fellow EU members reached a head as the UK had blocked more than 70 EU statements to UN committees. The row was over the wording used; the statements read they were on behalf of the EU, rather than "EU and its member states" as the UK insisted. The UK's actions were intended to stop the perceived drift towards a common EU foreign policy and were insisted upon by British Prime Minister David Cameron and Foreign Secretary William Hague. While purely symbolic, the issue has become a big deal for both sides, although the UK government has been criticised for using valuable political capital and good will on something that will yield, even if successful, no real gain."
"The EU holds an observer seat on the executive board for funds and programmes, where the European Commission is a big donor and Mark Malloch Brown, former UN deputy secretary general, believes the EU will gradually be represented more and more, starting with the aid departments, eventually leading to the EU taking up a seat on the Security Council.[18]
However the extension of the EU's role at the UN is politically sensitive among EU members such as the United Kingdom who do not want to risk reaching a point where they have to give up their permanent seat on the Security Council.[1] This is alongside fellow EU member Germany demanding its own Security Council seat."
Richard us fruitcakes differ from you in that we simply don't trust the political elites. People like you trust Gordon not to sign major treaties behind closed doors and with no referendum. People like you trust the EU not to force elected governments out of power. I am a proud fruitcake because experience tells me that if the EU really wanted the UK's security council seat they'd find a way to pressure our craven politicians to accede. FWIW I don't think they do actually want this and the process to wear us down might take ages. But they're relentlessly patient these Brussels types (unless major short term damage to the Project is imminent and then they can stiff a Greek election result PDQ).
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
Leave engaging in Project Fear? Say it ain't so?
To be fair, it's more Project Bring Hairy Ball Sacks from Leavers
Naught but Europhile Propaganda from TPD, I mean TSE!
There is no such thing as EU money. There is only taxpayers' money.
Not quite - the UK borrows £80 billion a year and sends £8 - £10 billion (net of rebate/ inward investment etc) to the EU (we'll not quibble about these, I trust - save that they will be going up as the EU wants a 15% in its budget).
So you could argue that the money being spent by the EU is 'banker's money'.
Trump is going to be calling Hilary out as crooked, corrupt and in the pay of the 1% every day from now until November. It's going to be a very nasty campaign indeed.
How fortunate that Trump isn't in the pay of the 1%, what with him being a billionaire and all that.
Isn't that part of why Trump does so well though? He is rich enough that he can't be corrupted like Hillary or Cruz.
In every single debate Trump is going to wave around Hillary's donor list and compare it to his, in every single response he will tear her links to Wall Street to shreds and he will be absolutely ruthless in doing so.
Is - the multiple bankrupt - Donald Trump really that rich? Or is he a thin sliver of equity on top of a bunch of highly leveraged properties?
Estimates of his wealth range from $700m all the way to $6bn. He says he has enough to fund a GE campaign out of pocket as well.
Even having the perception of being ultra-wealthy helps him as it makes him look whiter than white in terms of being corruptible. The Clintons otoh have all kinds of dodgy stuff in their past. Property deals, their foundation taking cash and not spending it, their lecture income from speaking at big banks etc... Trump is going to absolutely destroy her.
As for Estonia, from when I went there just before they switched over, at least that was the sentiment of the people I was talking to there.
Just listened to the 1 o'clock news. A Vote Leave spokesman said that the British people wont have a vote over whether Albania can join the EU. He then pointed out that 5% of their population currently living in the UK is in jail.
The interviewer then reminded him that we have an absolute veto over whether Albania or any other country can join the EU. "The government does but the people don't".
I understand the desire to win at all costs but to try to mislead is absolutely not the way to go. People listening will have hated it.
The people don't get a vote on new entrants to the EU so he is right. It's why they keep bringing up membership for Turkey, our government are in favour even though the people would be close to 99% against. Obviously membership for Turkey is unlikely for reasons people have pointed out, but our government are in favour and are under no obligation to give the people a say on new entrants.
The other thing to keep an eye on is that there is no referendum lock on accession treaties, they are explicitly excluded from the EU Act 2011, so the EU and/or the government can attach anything else it wants in the way of giving up powers to Brussels and the people get no say on the matter, just our Europhile cabinet.
The people get to vote in general elections. That's how it works here.
We have been there and done that. Gordon signs it, Cast Iron Dave says "oops too late".
And we now have a referendum on continuing membership and the opportunity in four years time to vote for a different government; the current one being led by the person who said "oops too late" and saw his party's vote share rise in the subsequent election to the extent that it now has a Commons majority.
There is no such thing as EU money. There is only taxpayers' money.
Not quite - the UK borrows £80 billion a year and sends £8 - £10 billion (net of rebate/ inward investment etc) to the EU (we'll not quibble about these, I trust - save that they will be going up as the EU wants a 15% in its budget).
So you could argue that the money being spent by the EU is 'banker's money'.
You could, but it would be bankers money for which the British taxpayer is liable for repayment on the loans
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Just listened to the 1 o'clock news. A Vote Leave spokesman said that the British people wont have a vote over whether Albania can join the EU. He then pointed out that 5% of their population currently living in the UK is in jail.
The interviewer then reminded him that we have an absolute veto over whether Albania or any other country can join the EU. "The government does but the people don't".
I understand the desire to win at all costs but to try to mislead is absolutely not the way to go. People listening will have hated it.
The people don't get a vote on new entrants to the EU so he is right. It's why they keep bringing up membership for Turkey, our government are in favour even though the people would be close to 99% against. Obviously membership for Turkey is unlikely for reasons people have pointed out, but our government are in favour and are under no obligation to give the people a say on new entrants.
The other thing to keep an eye on is that there is no referendum lock on accession treaties, they are explicitly excluded from the EU Act 2011, so the EU and/or the government can attach anything else it wants in the way of giving up powers to Brussels and the people get no say on the matter, just our Europhile cabinet.
The people get to vote in general elections. That's how it works here.
We have been there and done that. Gordon signs it, Cast Iron Dave says "oops too late".
And we now have a referendum on continuing membership and the opportunity in four years time to vote for a different government; the current one being led by the person who said "oops too late" and saw his party's vote share rise in the subsequent election to the extent that it now has a Commons majority.
His vote increased by a laughable 0.7%, its just that Labour keeps electing f*ckwits as leader.
I trust you are not trying to suggest with a straight face that his "oops" lead to that increase ?
McDonnell, who said last week he wanted those with antisemitic views to be expelled from Labour, said in an interview on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday: “As soon as Jewish people start telling us there is antisemitism in our party, we’ve got to sit up and listen."
“That is why I said last week, if there are people who have expressed antisemitic views, there is no role for them in our party and I would like them out of our party for life. "
I think that's pretty clear and I would hope the Labour voters on here support him fully and press for him to follow these words in dealing with Shah.
Just listened to the 1 o'clock news. A Vote Leave spokesman said that the British people wont have a vote over whether Albania can join the EU. He then pointed out that 5% of their population currently living in the UK is in jail.
The interviewer then reminded him that we have an absolute veto over whether Albania or any other country can join the EU. "The government does but the people don't".
I understand the desire to win at all costs but to try to mislead is absolutely not the way to go. People listening will have hated it.
The people don't get a vote on new entrants to the EU so he is right. It's why they keep bringing up membership for Turkey, our government are in favour even though the people would be close to 99% against. Obviously membership for Turkey is unlikely for reasons people have pointed out, but our government are in favour and are under no obligation to give the people a say on new entrants.
The other thing to keep an eye on is that there is no referendum lock on accession treaties, they are explicitly excluded from the EU Act 2011, so the EU and/or the government can attach anything else it wants in the way of giving up powers to Brussels and the people get no say on the matter, just our Europhile cabinet.
The people get to vote in general elections. That's how it works here.
We have been there and done that. Gordon signs it, Cast Iron Dave says "oops too late".
And we now have a referendum on continuing membership and the opportunity in four years time to vote for a different government; the current one being led by the person who said "oops too late" and saw his party's vote share rise in the subsequent election to the extent that it now has a Commons majority.
But only on the back of promising this referendum? Are the two things separable?
There is no such thing as EU money. There is only taxpayers' money.
Not quite - the UK borrows £80 billion a year and sends £8 - £10 billion (net of rebate/ inward investment etc) to the EU (we'll not quibble about these, I trust - save that they will be going up as the EU wants a 15% in its budget).
So you could argue that the money being spent by the EU is 'banker's money'.
You could, but it would be bankers money for which the British taxpayer is liable for repayment on the loans
It would, of course. The horrible thing about the EU is that the taxation (subscription) we send to Brussels is based on GDP turnover NOT profitability (UKDR/ UKPSBR)
All companies are taxed on profit - so why should we be taxed on turnover.
Does Mike or anyone else have a record of how online and phone polls compared in terms of their overall accuracy at the 2015 GE ? I'm aware that the received wisdom is that phone polls are generally the more accurate, but can't recall why this should be. One very real reason tending to favour online polls is that one would assume it would tend to eliminate or at least greatly reduce the "shy" element, in that one is not expressing one's views directly to another human being.
Anecdote alert: The cleaner in my office is for "leave", however she probably won't vote. A good example of Leave's C2DE turnout problem !
Indeed. And there are tens of thousands like her.
So what's the point in even talking or listening to them?
Don't vote = politically irrelevant.
My colleague will be voting however (For leave) and she normally doesn't vote.
I think unfortunately for leave my cleaner friend is in the larger subset of (Non voter GE && EUREF Non voter) compared to (Leave && Non GE Voter);
I have not met anyone who is remotely near the (Non voter && Remain) subset. My guess is that is the tiniest of all - though there must have been quite a few (Non voter && "No" (Sindy ref) ) voters.
"(Leave && Non GE Voter)" is definitely a 'thing' mind
All companies are taxed on profit - so why should we be taxed on turnover.
Ironically the government is currently being sued in the ECJ for attempting to tax one sort of company (BTL Landlords) on the basis of turnover rather than profit. If they lose that at least 1% of the shine of all things EU might wear off... no that's probably expecting too much.
I feel guilty bringing up the 5th May elections, when all are talking about the referendum. Anyway, news on the streets of Wales and London is that UKIP will do better than polls. Might mean an extra seat or two in Wales and a London-wide Assembly member in London, at a stretch 2!
Lib Dems are having a good campaign in terms of policies and organisations but no one trusts them! You may already know that.
Labour say Khan is almost certain to be Mayor - '100%' is their view. mmm, let's hope not. Labour chaps say there is some gossip about him, not extremist led, that may leak!
More Tories on the ground than Labour in London. Opposite of GE.
Personally, it would be interesting to see who tops the mini-battle of Mayoral candidates between Greens (she's lovely), Lib Dems (automaton) and UKIP (surprising pleasant). I think UKIP might clinch it.
Lastly, Galloway is bombing. Does he have any juice left in the tank? No one thinks so, but he is an unexploded bomb!
Just listened to the 1 o'clock news. A Vote Leave spokesman said that the British people wont have a vote over whether Albania can join the EU. He then pointed out that 5% of their population currently living in the UK is in jail.
The interviewer then reminded him that we have an absolute veto over whether Albania or any other country can join the EU. "The government does but the people don't".
I understand the desire to win at all costs but to try to mislead is absolutely not the way to go. People listening will have hated it.
The people don't get a vote on new entrants to the EU so he is right. It's why they keep bringing up membership for Turkey, our government are in favour even though the people would be close to 99% against. Obviously membership for Turkey is unlikely for reasons people have pointed out, but our government are in favour and are under no obligation to give the people a say on new entrants.
The other thing to keep an eye on is that there is no referendum lock on accession treaties, they are explicitly excluded from the EU Act 2011, so the EU and/or the government can attach anything else it wants in the way of giving up powers to Brussels and the people get no say on the matter, just our Europhile cabinet.
The people get to vote in general elections. That's how it works here.
We have been there and done that. Gordon signs it, Cast Iron Dave says "oops too late".
And we now have a referendum on continuing membership and the opportunity in four years time to vote for a different government; the current one being led by the person who said "oops too late" and saw his party's vote share rise in the subsequent election to the extent that it now has a Commons majority.
His vote increased by a laughable 0.7%, its just that Labour keeps electing f*ckwits as leader.
I trust you are not trying to suggest with a straight face that his "oops" lead to that increase ?
How many governments that have gone the full term have seen their share of the vote increase, since the war?
Just so we can put that laughable 0.7% into context.
I know a lot of people were worried about the £9 million on a EU leaflet. Even more worrying is some of it was being wasted at the Royal Mail - I still haven't received mine.
The move by Lord Edmiston, who has previously donated £4million to the Tories and was made a life peer in 2010, follows a torrid week for the Leave camp.
Mr. Eagles, Blair was very good at winning elections. But that's a means to an end. If you're a great campaigner and a feeble governor, you're falling into the school of Honorius.
RICHARD KEMP @COLRICHARDKEMP 2m ago Those who argue Britain voice would be stronger remaining in EU ignore fact that EU plan to expropriate our permanent Security Council seat
What a nutcase. How in the name of heaven could the EU 'expropriate' our security council seat? What's the mechanism? Do people really take this utter garbage even remotely seriously? Mind you, it's a useful sanity test.
A typical response.... What gives you the right to label this retired 57 year old Colonel as a nutcase? Is chucking abuse on a person who dares to make the case for LEAVE the best you can do? Maybe, just maybe you should concede that on security and military matters he knows more than you ever will? "Colonel Richard Justin Kemp CBE (born 14 April 1959) is a retired British Army officer who served from 1977 to 2006. He was Commander of some British Forces in Afghanistan, an infantry battalion Commanding Officer, worked for the Joint Intelligence Committee and COBR and completed 14 operational tours of duty around the globe."
On reading it LOOKS as if the EU would like a seat on an expanded UNSC and in the meantime ensure that France and UK vote on what is best for the EU - not necessarily France and the UK.
Recalls, in addition, that within the UN the EU is represented by a multiplicity of actors: the President of the European Council, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, the European Commission and the EU delegations, as well as by its 28 Member States, two of which (France and the United Kingdom) are permanent veto-holding members of the UN Security Council (UNSC); insists on the fact that according to the Treaty the EU Member States are obliged to coordinate their action in all international forums;
Treaty commitments without enforcement mechanisms are simply statements of intent.
It's nearly a quarter of a century since Maastricht was agreed. How close are we to member states "coordinat[ing] their action in all international forums" in practice?
I'm purblind then. The EU machine doesn't share or devolve power. They'll happily bully national governments all day long - yes, including on the issue of national level protections - but they'll not surrender an iota of power to anyone for anything ever. The journey to a superstate is planned and will never be surrendered. They want to build an EU army. They want to harmonise tax rates. They want to make nation states irrelevant. Who's the blind one here really? Are you honestly fine with where they are going? They're like the terminator - they can't be bargained with and they simply will not stop, ever, until nations states are dead. But I quite like my nation state.
Yeah, yeah, I get all that, but in respect of the Security Council (a) What's the 'EU machine', and who are 'they'? (b) What power do they have to bully us? (c) Even if they bully us, what power do they have over France and the USA, both of whom would veto any such change in any conceivable world?
It's 100%, batshit-crazy, tin-foil-hat, green-ink bonkers. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality.
And no doubt you'd have made very similar arguments in during the EEC referendum in the 1970s.
All companies are taxed on profit - so why should we be taxed on turnover.
Ironically the government is currently being sued in the ECJ for attempting to tax one sort of company (BTL Landlords) on the basis of turnover rather than profit. If they lose that at least 1% of the shine of all things EU might wear off... no that's probably expecting too much.
Why, you ask yourself, has this anything to do with the EU? It's a nice example of how the EU's competences have become overstretched.
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU. Separately may I say how wonderful it is to see the joy and relief from the Hillsborough families and trust that manslaughter charges will follow? I assume the ‘Sun’ tomorrow will have a front page apology from Kelvin McKenzie and Boris will no doubt issue a similar public apology. The verdict will hopefully give the families some closure and that they can live their lives knowing that their cause has been absolutely vindicated
I confess that I have limited knowledge of the Hillsborough disaster but I am surprised by the finding that the actions of the fans played no part.
"(Leave && Non GE Voter)" is definitely a 'thing' mind
At least that is a semi coherent view, its says in effect, not going to vote in the GE because "they are all the same", but I will vote Leave to shake things up, it's the anti-establishment vote.
Not voting in the GE and voting Remain would be much harder to explain, unless it's a federalist Europhile who despairs of national politics, but they would also have to capable of tractor loads of voting for hope over experience.
Requires a two-thirds majority of 192 countries and no veto by any of the permanent members (none of whom wants to see their power diluted).
In a word, it ain't gonna happen anytime soon, and if it were to happen, Brazil, India, Japan and Germany are next in the queue. And the EU's say in all this? Precisely zero.
Just listened to the 1 o'clock news. A Vote Leave spokesman said that the British people wont have a vote over whether Albania can join the EU. He then pointed out that 5% of their population currently living in the UK is in jail.
The interviewer then reminded him that we have an absolute veto over whether Albania or any other country can join the EU. "The government does but the people don't".
I understand the desire to win at all costs but to try to mislead is absolutely not the way to go. People listening will have hated it.
The people don't get a vote on new entrants to the EU so he is right. It's why they keep bringing up membership for Turkey, our government are in favour even though the people would be close to 99% against. Obviously membership for Turkey is unlikely for reasons people have pointed out, but our government are in favour and are under no obligation to give the people a say on new entrants.
The other thing to keep an eye on is that there is no referendum lock on accession treaties, they are explicitly excluded from the EU Act 2011, so the EU and/or the government can attach anything else it wants in the way of giving up powers to Brussels and the people get no say on the matter, just our Europhile cabinet.
The people get to vote in general elections. That's how it works here.
We have been there and done that. Gordon signs it, Cast Iron Dave says "oops too late".
And we now have a referendum on continuing membership and the opportunity in four years time to vote for a different government; the current one being led by the person who said "oops too late" and saw his party's vote share rise in the subsequent election to the extent that it now has a Commons majority.
His vote increased by a laughable 0.7%, its just that Labour keeps electing f*ckwits as leader.
I trust you are not trying to suggest with a straight face that his "oops" lead to that increase ?
How many governments that have gone the full term have seen their share of the vote increase, since the war?
Just so we can put that laughable 0.7% into context.
Richard us fruitcakes differ from you in that we simply don't trust the political elites. People like you trust Gordon not to sign major treaties behind closed doors and with no referendum. People like you trust the EU not to force elected governments out of power. I am a proud fruitcake because experience tells me that if the EU really wanted the UK's security council seat they'd find a way to pressure our craven politicians to accede. FWIW I don't think they do actually want this and the process to wear us down might take ages. But they're relentlessly patient these Brussels types (unless major short term damage to the Project is imminent and then they can stiff a Greek election result PDQ).
The idea that the EU gets governments out of power is just bonkers. If the Greek government wanted to survive and could afford to it would have done so. It was nothing to do with the EU and entirely the fact that the Greeks were bankrupt and being told to change or the creditors would cut off funding that was the issue.
The Greeks had the option of not f***ing up their own economy, they didn't do that. The Greeks had the option of leaving the Euro, they didn't do that. The Greeks had the option of balancing their budget, they didn't do that.
Those of us that were regular football ground visitors in the 80s appreciate just how awful conditions were as compared with modern all seaters. In 87 3 of us had 2 tickets for the FA Cup final, I went first, the next gave the bloke at the turnstile £20, the 3rd gave his ticket. The point is nobody had any idea how many were in the ground. I'm sure a lot of bereaved parents will feel a little better today but I'm not sure justice has been done, because on this occasion I'm not sure what justice is. The images of those fans at the front being crushed are truly horrific.
I know a lot of people were worried about the £9 million on a EU leaflet. Even more worrying is some of it was being wasted at the Royal Mail - I still haven't received mine.
Comments
OK, fair enough.
To be fair, it's more Project Bring Hairy Ball Sacks from Leavers
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/724945475821035522
This is obviously slightly biased but I have to assume that such a vote DID take place.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP 3h ago
Why is @frankfieldteam in a minority in backing the policies that will benefit many Labour voters - cheaper food and higher wages?
45% of voters tell ORB they have heard from the Remain campaign, 23% from Leave.
I'm aware that the received wisdom is that phone polls are generally the more accurate, but can't recall why this should be.
One very real reason tending to favour online polls is that one would assume it would tend to eliminate or at least greatly reduce the "shy" element, in that one is not expressing one's views directly to another human being.
Get in.
Re, the UK losing the UN security council seat, my old university neighbour, now a senior FCO official, is vehement about how this has to happen and how the FCO supports it (in private).
London, Tuesday 26 April, 2016 – Survation, a leader in political polling and IG Group, a global leader in online trading have today announced a new partnership to deliver a series of polls ahead of the EU Referendum on 23rd June 2016.
What have they been doing up to now?
Anecdote alert: out of all my mates it is the women junior Docs who are the most forthright.
It's 100%, batshit-crazy, tin-foil-hat, green-ink bonkers. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/622814/EU-plot-to-kick-UK-out-UN-security-council-Nigel-Farage-Theresa-May
"Colonel Richard Justin Kemp CBE (born 14 April 1959) is a retired British Army officer who served from 1977 to 2006. He was Commander of some British Forces in Afghanistan, an infantry battalion Commanding Officer, worked for the Joint Intelligence Committee and COBR and completed 14 operational tours of duty around the globe."
People blaming the fans have zero, zero, zero knowledge of how crowd dynamics work. By the time someone knows they are in a crush it is too late to individually do anything.
It is some impressive level of ignorant pseudo intellectual wank to try and blame members of the crowd.
It would explain a lot :-)
You told us it was 100% bat shit crazy to think the government would pay back that £1.7bn, and then it did, you have no credibility at all on this matter, sorry.
And Leavers wonder why they are sometimes accused of being fruitcakes and nutcases. You might expect them to counter the accusation by avoiding fruitcake positions, but, no, they keep coming back with more.
By contrast, comparing the same seats in the cycle (almost - all out elections mess it up a little), gives a much firmer basis for comparison.
I think the document being discussed.
On reading it LOOKS as if the EU would like a seat on an expanded UNSC and in the meantime ensure that France and UK vote on what is best for the EU - not necessarily France and the UK.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=REPORT&reference=A8-2015-0308&language=EN
"Member States which are also members of the United Nations Security Council will concert and keep the other Member States and the High Representative fully informed. Member States which are members of the Security Council will, in the execution of their functions, defend the positions and the interests of the Union, without prejudice to their responsibilities under the provisions of the United Nations Charter."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_and_the_United_Nations
"The EU holds an observer seat on the executive board for funds and programmes, where the European Commission is a big donor and Mark Malloch Brown, former UN deputy secretary general, believes the EU will gradually be represented more and more, starting with the aid departments, eventually leading to the EU taking up a seat on the Security Council.[18]
However the extension of the EU's role at the UN is politically sensitive among EU members such as the United Kingdom who do not want to risk reaching a point where they have to give up their permanent seat on the Security Council.[1] This is alongside fellow EU member Germany demanding its own Security Council seat."
There's no way in a million years I'm voting to Remain on that basis.
So you could argue that the money being spent by the EU is 'banker's money'.
Even having the perception of being ultra-wealthy helps him as it makes him look whiter than white in terms of being corruptible. The Clintons otoh have all kinds of dodgy stuff in their past. Property deals, their foundation taking cash and not spending it, their lecture income from speaking at big banks etc... Trump is going to absolutely destroy her.
As for Estonia, from when I went there just before they switched over, at least that was the sentiment of the people I was talking to there.
A good example of Leave's C2DE turnout problem !
So what's the point in even talking or listening to them?
Don't vote = politically irrelevant.
I trust you are not trying to suggest with a straight face that his "oops" lead to that increase ?
McDonnell, who said last week he wanted those with antisemitic views to be expelled from Labour, said in an interview on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday: “As soon as Jewish people start telling us there is antisemitism in our party, we’ve got to sit up and listen."
“That is why I said last week, if there are people who have expressed antisemitic views, there is no role for them in our party and I would like them out of our party for life. "
I think that's pretty clear and I would hope the Labour voters on here support him fully and press for him to follow these words in dealing with Shah.
All companies are taxed on profit - so why should we be taxed on turnover.
If this poll is a harbinger, then surely those prices aren't going to last?
I know this market does have a history of not reacting, but again that's not going to last?
This surely is Peak Remain, and that implies value in backing Leave?
http://gbrexit.com/brexit/one-of-britains-wealthiest-men-worth-540m-hands-over-a-cool-1m-to-vote-leave-grassroots-out/
I think unfortunately for leave my cleaner friend is in the larger subset of (Non voter GE && EUREF Non voter) compared to (Leave && Non GE Voter);
I have not met anyone who is remotely near the (Non voter && Remain) subset. My guess is that is the tiniest of all - though there must have been quite a few (Non voter && "No" (Sindy ref) ) voters.
"(Leave && Non GE Voter)" is definitely a 'thing' mind
Lib Dems are having a good campaign in terms of policies and organisations but no one trusts them! You may already know that.
Labour say Khan is almost certain to be Mayor - '100%' is their view. mmm, let's hope not. Labour chaps say there is some gossip about him, not extremist led, that may leak!
More Tories on the ground than Labour in London. Opposite of GE.
Personally, it would be interesting to see who tops the mini-battle of Mayoral candidates between Greens (she's lovely), Lib Dems (automaton) and UKIP (surprising pleasant). I think UKIP might clinch it.
Lastly, Galloway is bombing. Does he have any juice left in the tank? No one thinks so, but he is an unexploded bomb!
Sorry, to bother you with all this.
Just so we can put that laughable 0.7% into context.
It's nearly a quarter of a century since Maastricht was agreed. How close are we to member states "coordinat[ing] their action in all international forums" in practice?
Not voting in the GE and voting Remain would be much harder to explain, unless it's a federalist Europhile who despairs of national politics, but they would also have to capable of tractor loads of voting for hope over experience.
https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/journal/25_4/essay/001.html/:pf_printable?sourceDoc=002101
Requires a two-thirds majority of 192 countries and no veto by any of the permanent members (none of whom wants to see their power diluted).
In a word, it ain't gonna happen anytime soon, and if it were to happen, Brazil, India, Japan and Germany are next in the queue. And the EU's say in all this? Precisely zero.
36% is Blair 2005 territory
The Greeks had the option of not f***ing up their own economy, they didn't do that.
The Greeks had the option of leaving the Euro, they didn't do that.
The Greeks had the option of balancing their budget, they didn't do that.
The EU has its flaws, Greece is not one of them.
The implied 1.28 for Hillary (Trump 4.5 implied) in the two horse race looks a bit short.
I've topped up £50 anyhow.
He'll surely go shorter when he clears 50 in Conneticut tonight and sweeps up the rest.