politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Super Thursday 2016 : Two Weeks to Go
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Super Thursday 2016 : Two Weeks to Go
London Assembly
Result of last election (2012): Lab 12, Con 9, Green 2, Lib Dem 2 (Hung Assembly, Lab short by 1)
Result of votes at last election (2012):
Comments
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First, and thanks Harry! Most important elections in the realm (tonight)
Or not.. that's what I get for rushing to the first! Thanks for the summary of the upcoming elections
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2nd like the British people after remain wins0
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This referendum never ceases to surprise me.
A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:
https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/
"Although the impact of Brexit on the British economy is uncertain, we doubt that Britain’s long-term economic outlook hinges on it. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Economic Community was a big deal for the United Kingdom. There are arguably much more important issues now, such as whether productivity will recover. The shortfall in British productivity relative to its pre-crisis trend is still over 10%, so regaining that lost ground would offset even the most negative of estimates of Brexit on the economy.
Based on assessing the evidence, we conclude that the more extreme claims made about the costs and benefits of Brexit for the British economy are wide of the mark and lacking in evidential bases
It is plausible that Brexit could have a modest negative impact on growth and job creation. But it is slightly more plausible that the net impacts will be modestly positive. This is a strong conclusion when compared with some studies."
"We continue to think that the United Kingdom’s economic prospects are good whether inside or outside the European Union. Britain has pulled ahead of the European Union in recent years, and we expect that gap to widen over the next few years regardless of whether Brexit occurs."0 -
I like the last sentence.. the EU basically doesn't matter!Casino_Royale said:This referendum never ceases to surprise me.
A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:
https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/0 -
FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.0 -
runnymederunnymede Posts: 1,652
9:04PM
Moses_ said:
» show previous quotes
Agreed and this so called democratic process just isn't. The original problem was with the number of countries involved and a veto system nothing tended to get done. If it ever was it the outcome took years to achieve displeased most participants , ended up meaningless and more often than not was what the French wanted in the first place.
So they introduce QMV to make the system easier but it's just as bad but in the opposite direction. I suspect It is the QMV that will do for us in the long run or more likely the short term because when the onslaught starts and it really will, QMV will result in such a massive schism in the dealings with Europe we leave by default anyway along with a handful of others.
Don't worry - Dave's got us an opt out from ever closer union. Honest.
John Biffen understood what QMV would lead to 30 years ago. But people were too stupid to see it.0 -
Moses_ said:
» show previous quotes
Agreed and this so called democratic process just isn't. The original problem was with the number of countries involved and a veto system nothing tended to get done. If it ever was it the outcome took years to achieve displeased most participants , ended up meaningless and more often than not was what the French wanted in the first place.
So they introduce QMV to make the system easier but it's just as bad but in the opposite direction. I suspect It is the QMV that will do for us in the long run or more likely the short term because when the onslaught starts and it really will, QMV will result in such a massive schism in the dealings with Europe we leave by default anyway along with a handful of others.
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Don't worry - Dave's got us an opt out from ever closer union. Honest.
John Biffen understood what QMV would lead to 30 years ago. But people were too stupid to see it.0 -
Sssshht!! That doesn't fit the narrative! ;-)RobD said:
I like the last sentence.. the EU basically doesn't matter!Casino_Royale said:This referendum never ceases to surprise me.
A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:
https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/0 -
Reveller attacks his girlfriend, chops his penis in half and throws himself out of a second-floor hotel window during 'a bad LSD trip' in France . Police say he is in a serious condition, but his life is not in danger
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3552195/LSD-trip-causes-French-man-cut-penis-jump-window.html#ixzz46UfGOFVB0 -
The Independent MLA last time was a unionist too. So 56 U 43 N 9 O.
The NI unionists overall are more competitive within their own community than in 2011 and that will be good for them voteswise in a proportional system. The better-off younger people from Protestant families might indeed be interested in Greens/Alliance but any kind of UUP recovery would hurt those parties, especially Alliance which gained so much from its decline. SF probably stable in their community or losing a bit to People Before Profit. If all this happens then the SDLP is bound to continue to decline.0 -
John Biffen was the most intelligent member of the Thatcher Governments, IMHO.runnymede said:
Moses_ said:
» show previous quotes
Agreed and this so called democratic process just isn't. The original problem was with the number of countries involved and a veto system nothing tended to get done. If it ever was it the outcome took years to achieve displeased most participants , ended up meaningless and more often than not was what the French wanted in the first place.
So they introduce QMV to make the system easier but it's just as bad but in the opposite direction. I suspect It is the QMV that will do for us in the long run or more likely the short term because when the onslaught starts and it really will, QMV will result in such a massive schism in the dealings with Europe we leave by default anyway along with a handful of others.
-------------------------------------------------
Don't worry - Dave's got us an opt out from ever closer union. Honest.
John Biffen understood what QMV would lead to 30 years ago. But people were too stupid to see it.
And that is saying something.0 -
The designs on the pills is quite appropriateMoses_ said:
Reveller attacks his girlfriend, chops his penis in half and throws himself out of a second-floor hotel window during 'a bad LSD trip' in France . Police say he is in a serious condition, but his life is not in danger
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3552195/LSD-trip-causes-French-man-cut-penis-jump-window.html#ixzz46UfGOFVB 0 -
Remain Conservatives attack fellow Conservatives, chop their party in half and throw the party out of a lead in the polls during 'a bad europhile trip’ in Europe. Observers say the party is in a serious condition, but its survival is not yet in danger.Moses_ said:
Reveller attacks his girlfriend, chops his penis in half and throws himself out of a second-floor hotel window during 'a bad LSD trip' in France . Police say he is in a serious condition, but his life is not in danger
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3552195/LSD-trip-causes-French-man-cut-penis-jump-window.html#ixzz46UfGOFVB
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"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-361040770 -
Keep your chin up.Moses_ said:2nd like the British people after remain wins
They won't take us alive.0 -
Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?0
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We will fight them etc etc........Casino_Royale said:
Keep your chin up.Moses_ said:2nd like the British people after remain wins
They won't take us alive.0 -
I have just got 1,000 to deliver over the weekend. I will most probably deliver 20,000 by the date of the referendum.Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
I am not particularly impressed with Vote Leave but I couldn't forgive myself if it was close and I did not bother.0 -
Don't know why it might shock people.Casino_Royale said:"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-361040770 -
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
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People have prejudices, like thinking all PB Tories are baby-eating poor-shooting posh bastards. They are wrong; only the cool ones are.AndyJS said:
Don't know why it might shock people.Casino_Royale said:"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104077 0 -
Make sure he gets two....one through the back door as well just in case he sees you and tries to do a runner.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.0 -
In honour of the great event tomorrow:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/04/21/2204-MATT-WEB-P1-large_trans++qVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.png0 -
Have I stumbled into the Leave depression support therapy group?0
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It's a shame that NI has to have such a system even now, but it does sound an interesting vote at least.0
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Started to sound like it, hasn't it?foxinsoxuk said:Have I stumbled into the Leave depression support therapy group?
Ok, off to watch "Line of Duty". Night all.0 -
That's my position.MP_SE said:
I have just got 1,000 to deliver over the weekend. I will most probably deliver 20,000 by the date of the referendum.Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
I am not particularly impressed with Vote Leave but I couldn't forgive myself if it was close and I did not bother.0 -
I take it all back - that's a good 8bn less than my prediction, so clearly a wonderful job.another_richard said:From this morning:
Big assumption that the deficit will be revised down.DavidL said:Treasury forecast was £74.5bn and the BBC (in a move clearly designed to give Another Richard a heart attack and thus weaken the Leave cause) are reporting it as the first time that Osborne has missed his forecast. Ultimately I think it is very unlikely he will because £500m is a very small revisal on such large numbers.
The 2014/15 deficit was initially reported as £87bn:
http://web.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_402118.pdf
It has subsequently been revised upwards to £92bn:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls
Likewise the 2013/14 deficit has been increased from £98bn to £103bn during the last year.
Anyway here is the present comparison of Osborne's borrowing prediction:
Predicted
2010/11 £149bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £89bn
2013/14 £60bn
2014/15 £37bn
2015/16 £20bn
Total £471bn
Actual
2010/11 £137bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £121bn
2013/14 £103bn
2014/15 £92bn
2015/16 £74bn
Total £643bn0 -
Good for you, Lucy.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
We need you.0 -
marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.TCPoliticalBetting said:Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?
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Why? Were you looking for the Remain one?foxinsoxuk said:Have I stumbled into the Leave depression support therapy group?
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Almost near perfect.kle4 said:
I take it all back - that's a good 8bn less than my prediction, so clearly a wonderful job.another_richard said:From this morning:
Big assumption that the deficit will be revised down.DavidL said:Treasury forecast was £74.5bn and the BBC (in a move clearly designed to give Another Richard a heart attack and thus weaken the Leave cause) are reporting it as the first time that Osborne has missed his forecast. Ultimately I think it is very unlikely he will because £500m is a very small revisal on such large numbers.
The 2014/15 deficit was initially reported as £87bn:
http://web.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_402118.pdf
It has subsequently been revised upwards to £92bn:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls
Likewise the 2013/14 deficit has been increased from £98bn to £103bn during the last year.
Anyway here is the present comparison of Osborne's borrowing prediction:
Predicted
2010/11 £149bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £89bn
2013/14 £60bn
2014/15 £37bn
2015/16 £20bn
Total £471bn
Actual
2010/11 £137bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £121bn
2013/14 £103bn
2014/15 £92bn
2015/16 £74bn
Total £643bn0 -
Apart from the Govt leaflet, no evidence of any election activity here. No billboards, posters and not a single leaflet from either side.initforthemoney said:
marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.TCPoliticalBetting said:Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?
No question at all, the role of Britain in Europe is failing to grip the nation. It is quite hard to conjour up images of diabolistic eurocrats plotting the demise of the UK, when spring in Leics is as unchanging as ever after 42 years of Europe.0 -
except for the league tablefoxinsoxuk said:
Apart from the Govt leaflet, no evidence of any election activity here. No billboards, posters and not a single leaflet from either side.initforthemoney said:
marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.TCPoliticalBetting said:Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?
No question at all, the role of Britain in Europe is failing to grip the nation. It is quite hard to conjour up images of diabolistic eurocrats plotting the demise of the UK, when spring in Leics is as unchanging as ever after 42 years of Europe.0 -
Look on the bright side. After full integration into Europe, we might end up with a decent health care system. The French one's excellent; proper 7 day working. Decent, well trained staff. Modern, well equipped hospitals.foxinsoxuk said:Have I stumbled into the Leave depression support therapy group?
NHS, envy of the world? Not from the other side of the Channel.0 -
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.0 -
To be fair, there is a lot more interest in that! Far more passion expressed about the referee on Sunday than any election!initforthemoney said:
except for the league tablefoxinsoxuk said:
Apart from the Govt leaflet, no evidence of any election activity here. No billboards, posters and not a single leaflet from either side.initforthemoney said:
marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.TCPoliticalBetting said:Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?
No question at all, the role of Britain in Europe is failing to grip the nation. It is quite hard to conjour up images of diabolistic eurocrats plotting the demise of the UK, when spring in Leics is as unchanging as ever after 42 years of Europe.
Leicesters place in Europe is now ensured. Definite top 3...0 -
Such disinterest = a low turnout.foxinsoxuk said:
Apart from the Govt leaflet, no evidence of any election activity here. No billboards, posters and not a single leaflet from either side.initforthemoney said:
marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.TCPoliticalBetting said:Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?
No question at all, the role of Britain in Europe is failing to grip the nation. It is quite hard to conjour up images of diabolistic eurocrats plotting the demise of the UK, when spring in Leics is as unchanging as ever after 42 years of Europe.
What time is now left may seem a lot but it is 8 weeks and 6 days for campaigning. Of which the next 2 to 2.5 weeks will in large parts of the country be dominated by local elections and the after effects.
Therefore leaving a "clean period" for the referendum of 6 to 6.5 weeks and about 4 to 4.5 weeks in that clean period for persuading postal voters.
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French healthcare staff paid a lot less?watford30 said:
Look on the bright side. After full integration into Europe, we might end up with a decent health care system. The French one's excellent; proper 7 day working. Decent, well trained staff. Modern, well equipped hospitals.foxinsoxuk said:Have I stumbled into the Leave depression support therapy group?
NHS, envy of the world? Not from the other side of the Channel.
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Yes, there is much we could usefully learn from our continental cousins.watford30 said:
Look on the bright side. After full integration into Europe, we might end up with a decent health care system. The French one's excellent; proper 7 day working. Decent, well trained staff. Modern, well equipped hospitals.foxinsoxuk said:Have I stumbled into the Leave depression support therapy group?
NHS, envy of the world? Not from the other side of the Channel.
Though their 7 day service becomes a zero day service in August...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3139694.stm0 -
May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?Casino_Royale said:
Good for you, Lucy.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
We need you.
More power to your elbow.
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(1) Buy leaflets here - personally I like "5 positive reasons" - and ship to your home address:nunu said:
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/shop
(2) Print off google maps of your local area
(3) Get out a highlighter and carve up into leaflet runs (it takes longer than you think, estimate off 120 homes per hour max)
(4) Deliver to your plan in manageable chunks (not after dark)
(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
Basically, you have to do it all yourself: buy, pay, receive, plan, deliver and check off.
But we don't have the resources of the Government or the EU, so we have no choice.0 -
Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?AnneJGP said:
May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?Casino_Royale said:
Good for you, Lucy.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
We need you.
More power to your elbow.
Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.0 -
We are in the middle of Welsh Assembly and Crime Commissioners elections and the number of leaflets has been absolutely ridiculous to the point that every leaflet received is now going directly into the bin unread or even looked at. This before we get into the referendum but they are going to go the same way. It is just too much. For the Assembly we have only had the Conservatives and Plaid actually canvassngAnneJGP said:
May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?Casino_Royale said:
Good for you, Lucy.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
We need you.
More power to your elbow.0 -
Yes the Woodford's study is a pretty good one. Certainly much more realistic than the appalling Treasury one.Casino_Royale said:This referendum never ceases to surprise me.
A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:
https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/
"Although the impact of Brexit on the British economy is uncertain, we doubt that Britain’s long-term economic outlook hinges on it. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Economic Community was a big deal for the United Kingdom. There are arguably much more important issues now, such as whether productivity will recover. The shortfall in British productivity relative to its pre-crisis trend is still over 10%, so regaining that lost ground would offset even the most negative of estimates of Brexit on the economy.
Based on assessing the evidence, we conclude that the more extreme claims made about the costs and benefits of Brexit for the British economy are wide of the mark and lacking in evidential bases
It is plausible that Brexit could have a modest negative impact on growth and job creation. But it is slightly more plausible that the net impacts will be modestly positive. This is a strong conclusion when compared with some studies."
"We continue to think that the United Kingdom’s economic prospects are good whether inside or outside the European Union. Britain has pulled ahead of the European Union in recent years, and we expect that gap to widen over the next few years regardless of whether Brexit occurs."0 -
It is difficult to forecast the London Assembly Member elections as the Mayoralty is clearly much more important. Therefore, the opinion polls only cover the Mayoralty and the two elections throw up different results. The YouGov opinion poll out today was startling. It shows a bigger margin for Khan than both Labour and Tory private polls are predicting.
Re; Assembly, historically, even when Ken in 2000 got about double Tory Steve Norris's vote, The Conservatives held Merton & Wandsworth etc. so Labour are unlikely to unseat us. That doesn't stop we blues from being nervous. We are working really hard on the London election and Labour are not, mainly due to their left wing issues and the fact that many of them don't like Khan. Labour Merton/Wandsworth candidate is doing sod all, which I hope continues.
There is a quiet Bradley effect out there, not enough to overcome 60/40, however 60/40 has not been seen before. Things may be solidifying for Khan but I don't see it. Tory data versus Labour bluster and I think Tories will get 2-4% more than opinion polls. If Cameron & co can keep quiet for a few weeks as well then Tories will do better. This remains a GOTV election and most Labour supporters are in Inner London, where their don't vote as often.
Interested to hear other people's views.0 -
as a villa man i'm rather jealous....foxinsoxuk said:
To be fair, there is a lot more interest in that! Far more passion expressed about the referee on Sunday than any election!initforthemoney said:
except for the league tablefoxinsoxuk said:
Apart from the Govt leaflet, no evidence of any election activity here. No billboards, posters and not a single leaflet from either side.initforthemoney said:
marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.TCPoliticalBetting said:Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?
No question at all, the role of Britain in Europe is failing to grip the nation. It is quite hard to conjour up images of diabolistic eurocrats plotting the demise of the UK, when spring in Leics is as unchanging as ever after 42 years of Europe.
Leicesters place in Europe is now ensured. Definite top 3...0 -
Definitely worth reading.Casino_Royale said:This referendum never ceases to surprise me.
A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:
https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/
"Although the impact of Brexit on the British economy is uncertain, we doubt that Britain’s long-term economic outlook hinges on it. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Economic Community was a big deal for the United Kingdom. There are arguably much more important issues now, such as whether productivity will recover. The shortfall in British productivity relative to its pre-crisis trend is still over 10%, so regaining that lost ground would offset even the most negative of estimates of Brexit on the economy.
Based on assessing the evidence, we conclude that the more extreme claims made about the costs and benefits of Brexit for the British economy are wide of the mark and lacking in evidential bases
It is plausible that Brexit could have a modest negative impact on growth and job creation. But it is slightly more plausible that the net impacts will be modestly positive. This is a strong conclusion when compared with some studies."
"We continue to think that the United Kingdom’s economic prospects are good whether inside or outside the European Union. Britain has pulled ahead of the European Union in recent years, and we expect that gap to widen over the next few years regardless of whether Brexit occurs."
0 -
Massive respek Mr Casino. Incensed at the way ordinary people have been intimidated and bullied by their own government with their own money.Casino_Royale said:
Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?AnneJGP said:
May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?Casino_Royale said:
Good for you, Lucy.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
We need you.
More power to your elbow.
Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.0 -
I am not a natural born fox, as a child I lived in Solihull and supported Villa, going to a modest number of matches.initforthemoney said:
as a villa man i'm rather jealous....foxinsoxuk said:
To be fair, there is a lot more interest in that! Far more passion expressed about the referee on Sunday than any election!initforthemoney said:
except for the league tablefoxinsoxuk said:
Apart from the Govt leaflet, no evidence of any election activity here. No billboards, posters and not a single leaflet from either side.initforthemoney said:
marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.TCPoliticalBetting said:Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?
No question at all, the role of Britain in Europe is failing to grip the nation. It is quite hard to conjour up images of diabolistic eurocrats plotting the demise of the UK, when spring in Leics is as unchanging as ever after 42 years of Europe.
Leicesters place in Europe is now ensured. Definite top 3...
Its not going to be an easy route back. Leicester only started to regain the winning mentality after we dropped into the 3rd tier for the first time in our history. That season just 5 years ago remade the side and its mentality. I enjoyed it more than I expected. Those days may well return at some point, but not for a while yet :-)
0 -
Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.Casino_Royale said:
...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)nunu said:
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
..
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).
0 -
Tsk. I'm Asian and voting LeaveCasino_Royale said:"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104077 0 -
Bloody foreigners coming over here, telling us UK born citizens what to do.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Tsk. I'm Asian and voting LeaveCasino_Royale said:"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104077
0 -
I've saved your guidance just in case, and will think about it. There are 2 issues for me: (1) I haven't got much energy for anything; and (2) I haven't entirely made up my mind which way I'm going to vote myself.Casino_Royale said:
Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?AnneJGP said:
May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?Casino_Royale said:
Good for you, Lucy.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
We need you.
More power to your elbow.
Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.
I looked at the link you provided, and it occurred to me I could buy a T-shirt from both In and Out, and wear them on alternate days!
But it would be really great if Mr Cameron's Big Society really got going for the purpose of taking us out of the EU!
0 -
Border security: Guards 'lack power to stop returning jihadis'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/border-security-guards-lack-power-to-stop-returning-jihadis/0 -
Boris Johnson: UK and America can be better friends than ever Mr Obama... if we LEAVE the EU
http://goo.gl/KMmirh0 -
I too am appalled at the ordinary people have been ..... etc.taffys said:
Massive respek Mr Casino. Incensed at the way ordinary people have been intimidated and bullied by their own government with their own money.Casino_Royale said:
Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?AnneJGP said:
May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?Casino_Royale said:
Good for you, Lucy.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
We need you.
More power to your elbow.
Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.
I'm still voting Remain, but I am even more determined to see Cameron and friends out next time0 -
Things are definitely better organised in parts. In my borough, we have weekly street stalls organised until 23 June, plus weekend leaflet deliveries designed to cover whole wards, constituencies and eventually the whole borough. I went delivering last Sunday and was joined by 5 others, which makes it go very quickly.Casino_Royale said:
Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?AnneJGP said:
May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?Casino_Royale said:
Good for you, Lucy.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
We need you.
More power to your elbow.
Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.
Know hope!0 -
In true British style, if you believe in a fair fight, please do consider it a bit anyway: everyone should have a chance to consider the arguments for themselves without the deck being stacked.AnneJGP said:
I've saved your guidance just in case, and will think about it. There are 2 issues for me: (1) I haven't got much energy for anything; and (2) I haven't entirely made up my mind which way I'm going to vote myself.Casino_Royale said:
Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?AnneJGP said:
May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?Casino_Royale said:
Good for you, Lucy.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
We need you.
More power to your elbow.
Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.
I looked at the link you provided, and it occurred to me I could buy a T-shirt from both In and Out, and wear them on alternate days!
But it would be really great if Mr Cameron's Big Society really got going for the purpose of taking us out of the EU!
If you're worried about the economics, have a read of the Woodford Report from Capital Economics (link at the start of the thread) that my europhile Banking friend praised.
There's nothing to be afraid of.0 -
Tory Racist!TheScreamingEagles said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here, telling us UK born citizens what to do.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Tsk. I'm Asian and voting LeaveCasino_Royale said:"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104077 0 -
Good tips!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.Casino_Royale said:
...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)nunu said:
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
..
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).
My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.0 -
If the EU is so wonderful, Mr Obama, why don't you sign the USA up to it?TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson: UK and America can be better friends than ever Mr Obama... if we LEAVE the EU
http://goo.gl/KMmirh 0 -
Also worth reading is Patrick's Minford's book which uses a different (and in my view better) modelling approach than many of the other studies out there and produces quite different results.Casino_Royale said:
In true British style, if you believe in a fair fight, please do consider it a bit anyway: everyone should have a chance to consider the arguments for themselves without the deck being stacked.AnneJGP said:
I've saved your guidance just in case, and will think about it. There are 2 issues for me: (1) I haven't got much energy for anything; and (2) I haven't entirely made up my mind which way I'm going to vote myself.Casino_Royale said:
Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?AnneJGP said:
May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?Casino_Royale said:
Good for you, Lucy.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
We need you.
More power to your elbow.
Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.
I looked at the link you provided, and it occurred to me I could buy a T-shirt from both In and Out, and wear them on alternate days!
But it would be really great if Mr Cameron's Big Society really got going for the purpose of taking us out of the EU!
If you're worried about the economics, have a read of the Woodford Report from Capital Economics (link at the start of the thread) that my europhile Banking friend praised.
There's nothing to be afraid of.
'Should Britain Leave the EU?: An Economic Analysis of a Troubled Relationship, Second Edition'
0 -
First Indiana polls, 2 have Trump and Cruz tied, a 3rd one has Trump with a clear lead:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/trump-cruz-indiana-primary-polls-222287
"One survey, completed on April 12, had Ted Cruz and Donald Trump in a statistical tie: 32 percent to 32 percent, with John Kasich, governor of neighboring Ohio, a distant third, with 14 percent.
A second survey also had Trump and Cruz tied, but that was a change from three weeks earlier, when Cruz had led outside the margin of error.
A third survey, from last week, had Trump ahead of Cruz, outside the margin of error."
0 -
It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.Casino_Royale said:
Good tips!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.Casino_Royale said:
...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)nunu said:
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
..
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).
My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.
I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield0 -
I believe that's a tautology.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Tory Racist!TheScreamingEagles said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here, telling us UK born citizens what to do.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Tsk. I'm Asian and voting LeaveCasino_Royale said:"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104077 0 -
Fantastic work, Mr Royale. I just use my, ah, "e-leaflet" on here and TwitterCasino_Royale said:
(1) Buy leaflets here - personally I like "5 positive reasons" - and ship to your home address:nunu said:
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/shop
(2) Print off google maps of your local area
(3) Get out a highlighter and carve up into leaflet runs (it takes longer than you think, estimate off 120 homes per hour max)
(4) Deliver to your plan in manageable chunks (not after dark)
(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
Basically, you have to do it all yourself: buy, pay, receive, plan, deliver and check off.
But we don't have the resources of the Government or the EU, so we have no choice. 0 -
Enjoy. I agree with you that it's good fun campaigning.TheScreamingEagles said:
It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.Casino_Royale said:
Good tips!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.Casino_Royale said:
...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)nunu said:
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
..
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).
My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.
I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield0 -
Is for research purposes. Stronger IN are casting themselves as the underdogs, which I've found amusing.Casino_Royale said:
Enjoy. I agree with you that it's good fun campaigning.TheScreamingEagles said:
It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.Casino_Royale said:
Good tips!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.Casino_Royale said:
...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)nunu said:
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
..
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).
My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.
I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield
I need to get a friend elected in May, but after that, it's full campaigning mode for the referendum.
I loved campaigning in 2015, 2001 was depressing0 -
Be BRAVE!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Fantastic work, Mr Royale. I just use my, ah, "e-leaflet" on here and TwitterCasino_Royale said:
(1) Buy leaflets here - personally I like "5 positive reasons" - and ship to your home address:nunu said:
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/shop
(2) Print off google maps of your local area
(3) Get out a highlighter and carve up into leaflet runs (it takes longer than you think, estimate off 120 homes per hour max)
(4) Deliver to your plan in manageable chunks (not after dark)
(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
Basically, you have to do it all yourself: buy, pay, receive, plan, deliver and check off.
But we don't have the resources of the Government or the EU, so we have no choice.
Be PROACTIVE!
Be OUTTHEREONTHESTREETSDELIVERINGREALLEAFLETSFORREAL!
Be LEAVE!0 -
We all found 2001 depressing; I thought we were finished.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is for research purposes. Stronger IN are casting themselves as the underdogs, which I've found amusing.Casino_Royale said:
Enjoy. I agree with you that it's good fun campaigning.TheScreamingEagles said:
It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.Casino_Royale said:
Good tips!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.Casino_Royale said:
...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)nunu said:
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
..
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).
My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.
I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield
I need to get a friend elected in May, but after that, it's full campaigning mode for the referendum.
I loved campaigning in 2015, 2001 was depressing
I won't lose all hope of a damascene conversion back to Leave at the 11th hour for you. Well, I need to believe it, at least.
Right, off now. Too much fun for one day.
Goodnight.0 -
New Cruz ad imagines Clinton aides cheering on Trump but terrified of Ted!
http://64.147.104.30/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/277150-new-cruz-ad-imagines-clinton-war-room-cheering-on-trump0 -
My dilemma is not one of the well-rehearsed ones.Casino_Royale said:
In true British style, if you believe in a fair fight, please do consider it a bit anyway: everyone should have a chance to consider the arguments for themselves without the deck being stacked.AnneJGP said:
I've saved your guidance just in case, and will think about it. There are 2 issues for me: (1) I haven't got much energy for anything; and (2) I haven't entirely made up my mind which way I'm going to vote myself.Casino_Royale said:
Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?AnneJGP said:
May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?Casino_Royale said:
Good for you, Lucy.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
We need you.
More power to your elbow.
Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.
I looked at the link you provided, and it occurred to me I could buy a T-shirt from both In and Out, and wear them on alternate days!
But it would be really great if Mr Cameron's Big Society really got going for the purpose of taking us out of the EU!
If you're worried about the economics, have a read of the Woodford Report from Capital Economics (link at the start of the thread) that my europhile Banking friend praised.
There's nothing to be afraid of.
Whether ill-advisedly or not, our leaders of the time signed up to the EU of their own free will. Is it right to renege on that?
I'd much rather the EU kicked us out, actually.0 -
Believe it or not I do try to read the links people post on here: for example I read both of the VLTC links you posted recently, although I assume you have posted more which I have not noticed. However I only got about 20% of the way thru this one (https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/) before I started using unparliamentary language. It's not just the fact that it's sourced from the never-knowingly-correct Roger Bootle's Capital Economics: that didn't stop me reading Bootle's Euroexit essay from a few years back. It was because it was...well, let's just do the list. The report includes the following:Casino_Royale said:This referendum never ceases to surprise me.
A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:
https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/
76 "could"s
70 " if "s
34 "may"s
30 "likely"s
25 "potential"s
18 "might"s
18 "estimate"s
14 "probably"s
12 "possible"s
11 "should"s
07 "probable"s
06 "think"s
05 "chance"s
06 "seems"s
05 "suggest"s
05 "appear"s
04 "assume"s
04 "believe"s
03 "doubt"s
03 "tend to"s
02 "possibiity"s
02 "on the other hand"s
01 "presumably"
and my favourites
01 "could potentially" (OH FOR F**KS SAKE!)
01 "certainly possible"
The report that your Deutsche Bank friend praised so extravagantly isn't a report, it's a fantasy in the literal sense: an indulgent thought exploration of a possible outcome. If your Deutsche Bank friend is recruiting, send me the link, because he *badly* needs somebody who can sieve.0 -
Is there any 'home borough' vote for Sadiq ?Dixie said:It is difficult to forecast the London Assembly Member elections as the Mayoralty is clearly much more important. Therefore, the opinion polls only cover the Mayoralty and the two elections throw up different results. The YouGov opinion poll out today was startling. It shows a bigger margin for Khan than both Labour and Tory private polls are predicting.
Re; Assembly, historically, even when Ken in 2000 got about double Tory Steve Norris's vote, The Conservatives held Merton & Wandsworth etc. so Labour are unlikely to unseat us. That doesn't stop we blues from being nervous. We are working really hard on the London election and Labour are not, mainly due to their left wing issues and the fact that many of them don't like Khan. Labour Merton/Wandsworth candidate is doing sod all, which I hope continues.
There is a quiet Bradley effect out there, not enough to overcome 60/40, however 60/40 has not been seen before. Things may be solidifying for Khan but I don't see it. Tory data versus Labour bluster and I think Tories will get 2-4% more than opinion polls. If Cameron & co can keep quiet for a few weeks as well then Tories will do better. This remains a GOTV election and most Labour supporters are in Inner London, where their don't vote as often.
Interested to hear other people's views.
But Zac should go down very well in Putney and Wimbledon as he has in neighbouring Richmond.
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Barack Obama: As your friend, let me tell you that the EU makes Britain even greater
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/0 -
I look forward to Cameron or Mr A N Other flying to Washington to advise American electors who to vote for in November.0
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You're not campaigning for the Conservatives in Sheffield Hallam are you ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is for research purposes. Stronger IN are casting themselves as the underdogs, which I've found amusing.Casino_Royale said:
Enjoy. I agree with you that it's good fun campaigning.TheScreamingEagles said:
It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.Casino_Royale said:
Good tips!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.Casino_Royale said:
...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)nunu said:
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
..
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).
My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.
I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield
I need to get a friend elected in May, but after that, it's full campaigning mode for the referendum.
I loved campaigning in 2015, 2001 was depressing
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'As your friend...'TheScreamingEagles said:Barack Obama: As your friend, let me tell you that the EU makes Britain even greater
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/
Do one Barry.0 -
I'm not sure what side the Gods are on, but they seem determined to make sure that most of the first 10 min slots of nightly news are now filled with death of a major celebrity, rather than EU stuff :-)0
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No, I'm going where there's a very good chance of electing a Tory councillor, in another part of Yorkshireanother_richard said:
You're not campaigning for the Conservatives in Sheffield Hallam are you ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is for research purposes. Stronger IN are casting themselves as the underdogs, which I've found amusing.Casino_Royale said:
Enjoy. I agree with you that it's good fun campaigning.TheScreamingEagles said:
It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.Casino_Royale said:
Good tips!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.Casino_Royale said:
...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)nunu said:
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
..
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).
My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.
I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield
I need to get a friend elected in May, but after that, it's full campaigning mode for the referendum.
I loved campaigning in 2015, 2001 was depressing0 -
Completely different. This is an ally advising on our key strategic relationships, not who we should vote as PM.dr_spyn said:I look forward to Cameron or Mr A N Other flying to Washington to advise American electors who to vote for in November.
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Anyhoo, I didn't come here to plat fog. Some of you may be familiar with the AGC Blind Items website, your one-stop-shopping for sleb goss. It predicted Prince's death three days before it happened. See here: http://www.agcwebpages.com/BLINDITEMS/2016/APRIL.html0
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Yes, completely different, because they wouldn't react the exact same way to us going there on advising on their key strategic relationships which, coincidentally, very likely will lead to a change in PM depending on the result.rottenborough said:
Completely different. This is an ally advising on our key strategic relationships, not who we should vote as PM.dr_spyn said:I look forward to Cameron or Mr A N Other flying to Washington to advise American electors who to vote for in November.
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Well have fun and good luck.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I'm going where there's a very good chance of electing a Tory councillor, in another part of Yorkshireanother_richard said:
You're not campaigning for the Conservatives in Sheffield Hallam are you ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is for research purposes. Stronger IN are casting themselves as the underdogs, which I've found amusing.Casino_Royale said:
Enjoy. I agree with you that it's good fun campaigning.TheScreamingEagles said:
It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.Casino_Royale said:
Good tips!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.Casino_Royale said:
...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)nunu said:
how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
..
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).
My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.
I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield
I need to get a friend elected in May, but after that, it's full campaigning mode for the referendum.
I loved campaigning in 2015, 2001 was depressing
Have you ever read the endless Sheffield Hallam threads at UKPR ?
A ten year discussion as the Hallam Tories disintegrated:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/sheffieldhallam/comment-page-1/#comments
Irvine Patnick makes a comment back in 2007.
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There are 108 could's in the treasury report. - and 140 if'sviewcode said:
Believe it or not I do try to read the links people post on here: for example I read both of the VLTC links you posted recently, although I assume you have posted more which I have not noticed. However I only got about 20% of the way thru this one (https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/) before I started using unparliamentary language. It's not just the fact that it's sourced from the never-knowingly-correct Roger Bootle's Capital Economics: that didn't stop me reading Bootle's Euroexit essay from a few years back. It was because it was...well, let's just do the list. The report includes the following:Casino_Royale said:This referendum never ceases to surprise me.
A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:
https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/
76 "could"s
70 " if "s
34 "may"s
30 "likely"s
25 "potential"s
18 "might"s
18 "estimate"s
14 "probably"s
12 "possible"s
11 "should"s
07 "probable"s
06 "think"s
05 "chance"s
06 "seems"s
05 "suggest"s
05 "appear"s
04 "assume"s
04 "believe"s
03 "doubt"s
03 "tend to"s
02 "possibiity"s
02 "on the other hand"s
01 "presumably"
and my favourites
01 "could potentially" (OH FOR F**KS SAKE!)
01 "certainly possible"
The report that your Deutsche Bank friend praised so extravagantly isn't a report, it's a fantasy in the literal sense: an indulgent thought exploration of a possible outcome. If your Deutsche Bank friend is recruiting, send me the link, because he *badly* needs somebody who can sieve.
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Would someone without a background in economics be able to understand a lot of Minford's book?runnymede said:
Also worth reading is Patrick's Minford's book which uses a different (and in my view better) modelling approach than many of the other studies out there and produces quite different results.Casino_Royale said:
In true British style, if you believe in a fair fight, please do consider it a bit anyway: everyone should have a chance to consider the arguments for themselves without the deck being stacked.AnneJGP said:
I've saved your guidance just in case, and will think about it. There are 2 issues for me: (1) I haven't got much energy for anything; and (2) I haven't entirely made up my mind which way I'm going to vote myself.Casino_Royale said:
Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?AnneJGP said:
May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?Casino_Royale said:
Good for you, Lucy.LucyJones said:
I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).Casino_Royale said:FTP @ LucyJones
Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.
It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.
People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.
We need you.
More power to your elbow.
Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.
I looked at the link you provided, and it occurred to me I could buy a T-shirt from both In and Out, and wear them on alternate days!
But it would be really great if Mr Cameron's Big Society really got going for the purpose of taking us out of the EU!
If you're worried about the economics, have a read of the Woodford Report from Capital Economics (link at the start of the thread) that my europhile Banking friend praised.
There's nothing to be afraid of.
'Should Britain Leave the EU?: An Economic Analysis of a Troubled Relationship, Second Edition'
I have just purchased, "Dilemmas of European Integration: The Ambiguities and Pitfalls of Integration by Stealth" by Giandomenico Majone. Zero reviews on Amazon but could be an interesting read.0 -
Also 62 May's, 75 likely's - shall we go on?
31 possible's 62 potential's 339 estimate's 34 should's 51 assume's
So if that previous report was rubbish, the treasury one wants to be used a bogroll.0 -
If his feature in the telegraph is anything to go by he is not making a few comments but looks like it is going to be full on. Tin hats timewatford30 said:
'As your friend...'TheScreamingEagles said:Barack Obama: As your friend, let me tell you that the EU makes Britain even greater
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/
Do one Barry.0 -
Given that it is a report based on what could happen if we left the EU, it is hardly surprising.weejonnie said:Also 62 May's, 75 likely's - shall we go on?
31 possible's 62 potential's 339 estimate's
So if that previous report was rubbish, the treasury one wants to be used a bogroll.0 -
Than previous report was rubbish...which is my point. Please feel free to use whatever you wish for bogroll.weejonnie said:Also 62 May's, 75 likely's - shall we go on?
31 possible's 62 potential's 339 estimate's
So if that previous report was rubbish, the treasury one wants to be used a bogroll.0 -
Er, Churchill, Fulton, Missouri - 1946.kle4 said:
Yes, completely different, because they wouldn't react the exact same way to us going there on advising on their key strategic relationships which, coincidentally, very likely will lead to a change in PM depending on the result.rottenborough said:
Completely different. This is an ally advising on our key strategic relationships, not who we should vote as PM.dr_spyn said:I look forward to Cameron or Mr A N Other flying to Washington to advise American electors who to vote for in November.
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(1) Buy leaflets here - personally I like "5 positive reasons" - and ship to your home address:
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/shop
(2) Print off google maps of your local area
(3) Get out a highlighter and carve up into leaflet runs (it takes longer than you think, estimate off 120 homes per hour max)
(4) Deliver to your plan in manageable chunks (not after dark)
(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
Basically, you have to do it all yourself: buy, pay, receive, plan, deliver and check off.
But we don't have the resources of the Government or the EU, so we have no choice.
thanx! isn't vote leave planning leafletting days i don't want to innundate people with leaflets, bloddy annoying.
Also you said always smile won't i look like a madman?0 -
I have.another_richard said:Well have fun and good luck.
Have you ever read the endless Sheffield Hallam threads at UKPR ?
A ten year discussion as the Hallam Tories disintegrated:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/sheffieldhallam/comment-page-1/#comments
Irvine Patnick makes a comment back in 2007.
It's funny, I know a few Sheffield Hallam Lib Dems, and they reckon, if there were no boundary changes in 2020, The Tories might have a chance of winning the seat.
No Clegg, so the Tories get back their tactical Tories for Clegg voters, and add in Sheffield Hallam not being the sort of place that will take kindly to the kind politics and policies of Jeremy Corbyn.
It's the hope that gets you.
That said if Oliver Coppard is the candidate in 2020 Labour would have a real chance, you couldn't be helped but be impressed by his energy last year. I reckon he might be a contender for the Mayor of Greater Sheffield.
I mentioned downthread about canvassing in the 2001 general election, it was mostly in Sheffield Hallam, we thought we could retake the seat, after a few door knocks, it was clear we weren't0 -
Crickey.....it fits with something that was said on CH4 news this evening as a passing comment by somebody who knew him.viewcode said:Anyhoo, I didn't come here to plat fog. Some of you may be familiar with the AGC Blind Items website, your one-stop-shopping for sleb goss. It predicted Prince's death three days before it happened. See here: http://www.agcwebpages.com/BLINDITEMS/2016/APRIL.html
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Yes, I saw that, I think the Flu was just the trigger for something more longstanding unfortunatelyFrancisUrquhart said:
Crickey.....viewcode said:Anyhoo, I didn't come here to plat fog. Some of you may be familiar with the AGC Blind Items website, your one-stop-shopping for sleb goss. It predicted Prince's death three days before it happened. See here: http://www.agcwebpages.com/BLINDITEMS/2016/APRIL.html
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Or HM's birthdayrottenborough said:I'm not sure what side the Gods are on, but they seem determined to make sure that most of the first 10 min slots of nightly news are now filled with death of a major celebrity, rather than EU stuff :-)
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Cruz slams Trump's 'PC' stance on transgender bathrooms
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/21/cruz-slams-trump-pc-stance-transgender-bathrooms/0
