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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Super Thursday 2016 : Two Weeks to Go

London Assembly
Result of last election (2012): Lab 12, Con 9, Green 2, Lib Dem 2 (Hung Assembly, Lab short by 1)
Result of votes at last election (2012):

Read the full story here

RobD

First, and thanks Harry! Most important elections in the realm (tonight)

Or not.. that's what I get for rushing to the first! Thanks for the summary of the upcoming elections

Moses_

2nd like the British people after remain wins

Casino_Royale

This referendum never ceases to surprise me.

A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:

https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/

"Although the impact of Brexit on the British economy is uncertain, we doubt that Britain’s long-term economic outlook hinges on it. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Economic Community was a big deal for the United Kingdom. There are arguably much more important issues now, such as whether productivity will recover. The shortfall in British productivity relative to its pre-crisis trend is still over 10%, so regaining that lost ground would offset even the most negative of estimates of Brexit on the economy.

Based on assessing the evidence, we conclude that the more extreme claims made about the costs and benefits of Brexit for the British economy are wide of the mark and lacking in evidential bases

It is plausible that Brexit could have a modest negative impact on growth and job creation. But it is slightly more plausible that the net impacts will be modestly positive. This is a strong conclusion when compared with some studies."

"We continue to think that the United Kingdom’s economic prospects are good whether inside or outside the European Union. Britain has pulled ahead of the European Union in recent years, and we expect that gap to widen over the next few years regardless of whether Brexit occurs."

RobD

Casino_Royale said:

This referendum never ceases to surprise me.

A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:

https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/

I like the last sentence.. the EU basically doesn't matter!

Casino_Royale

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

runnymede

runnymederunnymede Posts: 1,652
9:04PM
Moses_ said:
» show previous quotes
Agreed and this so called democratic process just isn't. The original problem was with the number of countries involved and a veto system nothing tended to get done. If it ever was it the outcome took years to achieve displeased most participants , ended up meaningless and more often than not was what the French wanted in the first place.

So they introduce QMV to make the system easier but it's just as bad but in the opposite direction. I suspect It is the QMV that will do for us in the long run or more likely the short term because when the onslaught starts and it really will, QMV will result in such a massive schism in the dealings with Europe we leave by default anyway along with a handful of others.
Don't worry - Dave's got us an opt out from ever closer union. Honest.

John Biffen understood what QMV would lead to 30 years ago. But people were too stupid to see it.

runnymede

Moses_ said:
» show previous quotes
Agreed and this so called democratic process just isn't. The original problem was with the number of countries involved and a veto system nothing tended to get done. If it ever was it the outcome took years to achieve displeased most participants , ended up meaningless and more often than not was what the French wanted in the first place.

So they introduce QMV to make the system easier but it's just as bad but in the opposite direction. I suspect It is the QMV that will do for us in the long run or more likely the short term because when the onslaught starts and it really will, QMV will result in such a massive schism in the dealings with Europe we leave by default anyway along with a handful of others.
-------------------------------------------------



Don't worry - Dave's got us an opt out from ever closer union. Honest.

John Biffen understood what QMV would lead to 30 years ago. But people were too stupid to see it.

Casino_Royale

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

This referendum never ceases to surprise me.

A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:

https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/

I like the last sentence.. the EU basically doesn't matter!

Sssshht!! That doesn't fit the narrative! ;-)

Moses_

Reveller attacks his girlfriend, chops his penis in half and throws himself out of a second-floor hotel window during 'a bad LSD trip' in France . Police say he is in a serious condition, but his life is not in danger

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3552195/LSD-trip-causes-French-man-cut-penis-jump-window.html#ixzz46UfGOFVB

EPG

The Independent MLA last time was a unionist too. So 56 U 43 N 9 O.

The NI unionists overall are more competitive within their own community than in 2011 and that will be good for them voteswise in a proportional system. The better-off younger people from Protestant families might indeed be interested in Greens/Alliance but any kind of UUP recovery would hurt those parties, especially Alliance which gained so much from its decline. SF probably stable in their community or losing a bit to People Before Profit. If all this happens then the SDLP is bound to continue to decline.

Casino_Royale

runnymede said:

Moses_ said:
» show previous quotes
Agreed and this so called democratic process just isn't. The original problem was with the number of countries involved and a veto system nothing tended to get done. If it ever was it the outcome took years to achieve displeased most participants , ended up meaningless and more often than not was what the French wanted in the first place.

So they introduce QMV to make the system easier but it's just as bad but in the opposite direction. I suspect It is the QMV that will do for us in the long run or more likely the short term because when the onslaught starts and it really will, QMV will result in such a massive schism in the dealings with Europe we leave by default anyway along with a handful of others.
-------------------------------------------------



Don't worry - Dave's got us an opt out from ever closer union. Honest.

John Biffen understood what QMV would lead to 30 years ago. But people were too stupid to see it.

John Biffen was the most intelligent member of the Thatcher Governments, IMHO.

And that is saying something.

RobD

Moses_ said:

Reveller attacks his girlfriend, chops his penis in half and throws himself out of a second-floor hotel window during 'a bad LSD trip' in France . Police say he is in a serious condition, but his life is not in danger

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3552195/LSD-trip-causes-French-man-cut-penis-jump-window.html#ixzz46UfGOFVB

The designs on the pills is quite appropriate

TCPoliticalBetting

Moses_ said:

Reveller attacks his girlfriend, chops his penis in half and throws himself out of a second-floor hotel window during 'a bad LSD trip' in France . Police say he is in a serious condition, but his life is not in danger
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3552195/LSD-trip-causes-French-man-cut-penis-jump-window.html#ixzz46UfGOFVB

Remain Conservatives attack fellow Conservatives, chop their party in half and throw the party out of a lead in the polls during 'a bad europhile trip’ in Europe. Observers say the party is in a serious condition, but its survival is not yet in danger.

Casino_Royale

"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104077

Casino_Royale

Moses_ said:

2nd like the British people after remain wins

Keep your chin up.

They won't take us alive.

TCPoliticalBetting

Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?

Moses_

Casino_Royale said:

Moses_ said:

2nd like the British people after remain wins

Keep your chin up.

They won't take us alive.

We will fight them etc etc........

MP_SE

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I have just got 1,000 to deliver over the weekend. I will most probably deliver 20,000 by the date of the referendum.

I am not particularly impressed with Vote Leave but I couldn't forgive myself if it was close and I did not bother.

AndyJS

Casino_Royale said:

"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104077

Don't know why it might shock people.

LucyJones

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

RobD

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104077

Don't know why it might shock people.

People have prejudices, like thinking all PB Tories are baby-eating poor-shooting posh bastards. They are wrong; only the cool ones are.

Moses_

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Make sure he gets two....one through the back door as well just in case he sees you and tries to do a runner.

RobD

In honour of the great event tomorrow:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/04/21/2204-MATT-WEB-P1-large_trans++qVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.png

foxinsoxuk

Have I stumbled into the Leave depression support therapy group?

kle4

It's a shame that NI has to have such a system even now, but it does sound an interesting vote at least.

LucyJones

foxinsoxuk said:

Have I stumbled into the Leave depression support therapy group?

Started to sound like it, hasn't it?

Ok, off to watch "Line of Duty". Night all.

Casino_Royale

MP_SE said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I have just got 1,000 to deliver over the weekend. I will most probably deliver 20,000 by the date of the referendum.

I am not particularly impressed with Vote Leave but I couldn't forgive myself if it was close and I did not bother.

That's my position.

kle4

another_richard said:

From this morning:

DavidL said:

Treasury forecast was £74.5bn and the BBC (in a move clearly designed to give Another Richard a heart attack and thus weaken the Leave cause) are reporting it as the first time that Osborne has missed his forecast. Ultimately I think it is very unlikely he will because £500m is a very small revisal on such large numbers.

Big assumption that the deficit will be revised down.

The 2014/15 deficit was initially reported as £87bn:

http://web.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_402118.pdf

It has subsequently been revised upwards to £92bn:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls

Likewise the 2013/14 deficit has been increased from £98bn to £103bn during the last year.

Anyway here is the present comparison of Osborne's borrowing prediction:

Predicted
2010/11 £149bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £89bn
2013/14 £60bn
2014/15 £37bn
2015/16 £20bn
Total £471bn

Actual
2010/11 £137bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £121bn
2013/14 £103bn
2014/15 £92bn
2015/16 £74bn
Total £643bn

I take it all back - that's a good 8bn less than my prediction, so clearly a wonderful job.

Casino_Royale

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Good for you, Lucy.

We need you.

EPG

kle4 said:

It's a shame that NI has to have such a system even now, but it does sound an interesting vote at least.

You see the sharp words and dealings that happen on the councils and it's no surprise. Beats bombing - but it is essentially democratic politics on pause.

initforthemoney

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?

marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.

Casino_Royale

foxinsoxuk said:

Have I stumbled into the Leave depression support therapy group?

Why? Were you looking for the Remain one?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

kle4 said:

another_richard said:

From this morning:

DavidL said:

Treasury forecast was £74.5bn and the BBC (in a move clearly designed to give Another Richard a heart attack and thus weaken the Leave cause) are reporting it as the first time that Osborne has missed his forecast. Ultimately I think it is very unlikely he will because £500m is a very small revisal on such large numbers.

Big assumption that the deficit will be revised down.

The 2014/15 deficit was initially reported as £87bn:

http://web.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_402118.pdf

It has subsequently been revised upwards to £92bn:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls

Likewise the 2013/14 deficit has been increased from £98bn to £103bn during the last year.

Anyway here is the present comparison of Osborne's borrowing prediction:

Predicted
2010/11 £149bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £89bn
2013/14 £60bn
2014/15 £37bn
2015/16 £20bn
Total £471bn

Actual
2010/11 £137bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £121bn
2013/14 £103bn
2014/15 £92bn
2015/16 £74bn
Total £643bn

I take it all back - that's a good 8bn less than my prediction, so clearly a wonderful job.

Almost near perfect.

foxinsoxuk

initforthemoney said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?

marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.

Apart from the Govt leaflet, no evidence of any election activity here. No billboards, posters and not a single leaflet from either side.

No question at all, the role of Britain in Europe is failing to grip the nation. It is quite hard to conjour up images of diabolistic eurocrats plotting the demise of the UK, when spring in Leics is as unchanging as ever after 42 years of Europe.

initforthemoney

foxinsoxuk said:

initforthemoney said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?

marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.

Apart from the Govt leaflet, no evidence of any election activity here. No billboards, posters and not a single leaflet from either side.

No question at all, the role of Britain in Europe is failing to grip the nation. It is quite hard to conjour up images of diabolistic eurocrats plotting the demise of the UK, when spring in Leics is as unchanging as ever after 42 years of Europe.

except for the league table

watford30

foxinsoxuk said:

Have I stumbled into the Leave depression support therapy group?

Look on the bright side. After full integration into Europe, we might end up with a decent health care system. The French one's excellent; proper 7 day working. Decent, well trained staff. Modern, well equipped hospitals.

NHS, envy of the world? Not from the other side of the Channel.

nunu

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

foxinsoxuk

initforthemoney said:

foxinsoxuk said:

initforthemoney said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?

marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.

Apart from the Govt leaflet, no evidence of any election activity here. No billboards, posters and not a single leaflet from either side.

No question at all, the role of Britain in Europe is failing to grip the nation. It is quite hard to conjour up images of diabolistic eurocrats plotting the demise of the UK, when spring in Leics is as unchanging as ever after 42 years of Europe.

except for the league table

To be fair, there is a lot more interest in that! Far more passion expressed about the referee on Sunday than any election!

Leicesters place in Europe is now ensured. Definite top 3...

TCPoliticalBetting

foxinsoxuk said:

initforthemoney said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?

marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.

Apart from the Govt leaflet, no evidence of any election activity here. No billboards, posters and not a single leaflet from either side.
No question at all, the role of Britain in Europe is failing to grip the nation. It is quite hard to conjour up images of diabolistic eurocrats plotting the demise of the UK, when spring in Leics is as unchanging as ever after 42 years of Europe.

Such disinterest = a low turnout.

What time is now left may seem a lot but it is 8 weeks and 6 days for campaigning. Of which the next 2 to 2.5 weeks will in large parts of the country be dominated by local elections and the after effects.
Therefore leaving a "clean period" for the referendum of 6 to 6.5 weeks and about 4 to 4.5 weeks in that clean period for persuading postal voters.

perdix

watford30 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Have I stumbled into the Leave depression support therapy group?

Look on the bright side. After full integration into Europe, we might end up with a decent health care system. The French one's excellent; proper 7 day working. Decent, well trained staff. Modern, well equipped hospitals.

NHS, envy of the world? Not from the other side of the Channel.

French healthcare staff paid a lot less?

foxinsoxuk

watford30 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Have I stumbled into the Leave depression support therapy group?

Look on the bright side. After full integration into Europe, we might end up with a decent health care system. The French one's excellent; proper 7 day working. Decent, well trained staff. Modern, well equipped hospitals.

NHS, envy of the world? Not from the other side of the Channel.

Yes, there is much we could usefully learn from our continental cousins.

Though their 7 day service becomes a zero day service in August...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3139694.stm

AnneJGP

Casino_Royale said:

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Good for you, Lucy.

We need you.

May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?

More power to your elbow.

Casino_Royale

nunu said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

(1) Buy leaflets here - personally I like "5 positive reasons" - and ship to your home address:
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/shop
(2) Print off google maps of your local area
(3) Get out a highlighter and carve up into leaflet runs (it takes longer than you think, estimate off 120 homes per hour max)
(4) Deliver to your plan in manageable chunks (not after dark)
(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)

Basically, you have to do it all yourself: buy, pay, receive, plan, deliver and check off.

But we don't have the resources of the Government or the EU, so we have no choice.

Casino_Royale

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Good for you, Lucy.

We need you.

May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?

More power to your elbow.

Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?

Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.

Big_G_NorthWales

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Good for you, Lucy.

We need you.

May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?

More power to your elbow.

We are in the middle of Welsh Assembly and Crime Commissioners elections and the number of leaflets has been absolutely ridiculous to the point that every leaflet received is now going directly into the bin unread or even looked at. This before we get into the referendum but they are going to go the same way. It is just too much. For the Assembly we have only had the Conservatives and Plaid actually canvassng

runnymede

Casino_Royale said:

This referendum never ceases to surprise me.

A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:

https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/

"Although the impact of Brexit on the British economy is uncertain, we doubt that Britain’s long-term economic outlook hinges on it. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Economic Community was a big deal for the United Kingdom. There are arguably much more important issues now, such as whether productivity will recover. The shortfall in British productivity relative to its pre-crisis trend is still over 10%, so regaining that lost ground would offset even the most negative of estimates of Brexit on the economy.

Based on assessing the evidence, we conclude that the more extreme claims made about the costs and benefits of Brexit for the British economy are wide of the mark and lacking in evidential bases

It is plausible that Brexit could have a modest negative impact on growth and job creation. But it is slightly more plausible that the net impacts will be modestly positive. This is a strong conclusion when compared with some studies."

"We continue to think that the United Kingdom’s economic prospects are good whether inside or outside the European Union. Britain has pulled ahead of the European Union in recent years, and we expect that gap to widen over the next few years regardless of whether Brexit occurs."

Yes the Woodford's study is a pretty good one. Certainly much more realistic than the appalling Treasury one.

Dixie

It is difficult to forecast the London Assembly Member elections as the Mayoralty is clearly much more important. Therefore, the opinion polls only cover the Mayoralty and the two elections throw up different results. The YouGov opinion poll out today was startling. It shows a bigger margin for Khan than both Labour and Tory private polls are predicting.

Re; Assembly, historically, even when Ken in 2000 got about double Tory Steve Norris's vote, The Conservatives held Merton & Wandsworth etc. so Labour are unlikely to unseat us. That doesn't stop we blues from being nervous. We are working really hard on the London election and Labour are not, mainly due to their left wing issues and the fact that many of them don't like Khan. Labour Merton/Wandsworth candidate is doing sod all, which I hope continues.

There is a quiet Bradley effect out there, not enough to overcome 60/40, however 60/40 has not been seen before. Things may be solidifying for Khan but I don't see it. Tory data versus Labour bluster and I think Tories will get 2-4% more than opinion polls. If Cameron & co can keep quiet for a few weeks as well then Tories will do better. This remains a GOTV election and most Labour supporters are in Inner London, where their don't vote as often.

Interested to hear other people's views.

initforthemoney

foxinsoxuk said:

initforthemoney said:

foxinsoxuk said:

initforthemoney said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?

marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.

Apart from the Govt leaflet, no evidence of any election activity here. No billboards, posters and not a single leaflet from either side.

No question at all, the role of Britain in Europe is failing to grip the nation. It is quite hard to conjour up images of diabolistic eurocrats plotting the demise of the UK, when spring in Leics is as unchanging as ever after 42 years of Europe.

except for the league table

To be fair, there is a lot more interest in that! Far more passion expressed about the referee on Sunday than any election!

Leicesters place in Europe is now ensured. Definite top 3...

as a villa man i'm rather jealous....

another_richard

Casino_Royale said:

This referendum never ceases to surprise me.

A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:

https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/

"Although the impact of Brexit on the British economy is uncertain, we doubt that Britain’s long-term economic outlook hinges on it. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Economic Community was a big deal for the United Kingdom. There are arguably much more important issues now, such as whether productivity will recover. The shortfall in British productivity relative to its pre-crisis trend is still over 10%, so regaining that lost ground would offset even the most negative of estimates of Brexit on the economy.

Based on assessing the evidence, we conclude that the more extreme claims made about the costs and benefits of Brexit for the British economy are wide of the mark and lacking in evidential bases

It is plausible that Brexit could have a modest negative impact on growth and job creation. But it is slightly more plausible that the net impacts will be modestly positive. This is a strong conclusion when compared with some studies."

"We continue to think that the United Kingdom’s economic prospects are good whether inside or outside the European Union. Britain has pulled ahead of the European Union in recent years, and we expect that gap to widen over the next few years regardless of whether Brexit occurs."

Definitely worth reading.

taffys

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Good for you, Lucy.

We need you.

May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?

More power to your elbow.

Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?

Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.

Massive respek Mr Casino. Incensed at the way ordinary people have been intimidated and bullied by their own government with their own money.

foxinsoxuk

initforthemoney said:

foxinsoxuk said:

initforthemoney said:

foxinsoxuk said:

initforthemoney said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Will the Local elections start to fill the media more than the referendum? The view from Hampshire is that the referendum dominates political discussions in the local media. But is that the case in London? Is Scotland 90% focused on the Assembly and Wales likewise?

marco biagi's parents just put up the snp bunting and the tories have unveiled the union jack in the square in hell but other than that there is very little sign of the election. then again i've seen no visible sign of the referendum at all yet. otoh the view from strathclyde uni is that all the economists are for in (i have never seen curtice on campus fwiw), but display no interest in the scottish election. local media? everyone reads the metro. feels far more low key than the last two scottish elections so far.

Apart from the Govt leaflet, no evidence of any election activity here. No billboards, posters and not a single leaflet from either side.

No question at all, the role of Britain in Europe is failing to grip the nation. It is quite hard to conjour up images of diabolistic eurocrats plotting the demise of the UK, when spring in Leics is as unchanging as ever after 42 years of Europe.

except for the league table

To be fair, there is a lot more interest in that! Far more passion expressed about the referee on Sunday than any election!

Leicesters place in Europe is now ensured. Definite top 3...

as a villa man i'm rather jealous....

I am not a natural born fox, as a child I lived in Solihull and supported Villa, going to a modest number of matches.

Its not going to be an easy route back. Leicester only started to regain the winning mentality after we dropped into the 3rd tier for the first time in our history. That season just 5 years ago remade the side and its mentality. I enjoyed it more than I expected. Those days may well return at some point, but not for a while yet :-)

TCPoliticalBetting

Casino_Royale said:

nunu said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
..

Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).

Sunil_Prasannan

Casino_Royale said:

"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104077

Tsk. I'm Asian and voting Leave

TheScreamingEagles

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Casino_Royale said:

"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104077

Tsk. I'm Asian and voting Leave

Bloody foreigners coming over here, telling us UK born citizens what to do.

AnneJGP

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Good for you, Lucy.

We need you.

May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?

More power to your elbow.

Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?

Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.

I've saved your guidance just in case, and will think about it. There are 2 issues for me: (1) I haven't got much energy for anything; and (2) I haven't entirely made up my mind which way I'm going to vote myself.

I looked at the link you provided, and it occurred to me I could buy a T-shirt from both In and Out, and wear them on alternate days!

But it would be really great if Mr Cameron's Big Society really got going for the purpose of taking us out of the EU!

FrancisUrquhart

Border security: Guards 'lack power to stop returning jihadis'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/border-security-guards-lack-power-to-stop-returning-jihadis/

TheScreamingEagles

Boris Johnson: UK and America can be better friends than ever Mr Obama... if we LEAVE the EU

http://goo.gl/KMmirh

OldKingCole

taffys said:

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Good for you, Lucy.

We need you.

May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?

More power to your elbow.

Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?

Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.

Massive respek Mr Casino. Incensed at the way ordinary people have been intimidated and bullied by their own government with their own money.

I too am appalled at the ordinary people have been ..... etc.

I'm still voting Remain, but I am even more determined to see Cameron and friends out next time

RoyalBlue

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Good for you, Lucy.

We need you.

May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?

More power to your elbow.

Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?

Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.

Things are definitely better organised in parts. In my borough, we have weekly street stalls organised until 23 June, plus weekend leaflet deliveries designed to cover whole wards, constituencies and eventually the whole borough. I went delivering last Sunday and was joined by 5 others, which makes it go very quickly.

Know hope!

Casino_Royale

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Good for you, Lucy.

We need you.

May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?

More power to your elbow.

Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?

Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.

I've saved your guidance just in case, and will think about it. There are 2 issues for me: (1) I haven't got much energy for anything; and (2) I haven't entirely made up my mind which way I'm going to vote myself.

I looked at the link you provided, and it occurred to me I could buy a T-shirt from both In and Out, and wear them on alternate days!

But it would be really great if Mr Cameron's Big Society really got going for the purpose of taking us out of the EU!

In true British style, if you believe in a fair fight, please do consider it a bit anyway: everyone should have a chance to consider the arguments for themselves without the deck being stacked.

If you're worried about the economics, have a read of the Woodford Report from Capital Economics (link at the start of the thread) that my europhile Banking friend praised.

There's nothing to be afraid of.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Casino_Royale said:

"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104077

Tsk. I'm Asian and voting Leave

Bloody foreigners coming over here, telling us UK born citizens what to do.

Tory Racist!

Casino_Royale

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
..

Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).

Good tips!

My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson: UK and America can be better friends than ever Mr Obama... if we LEAVE the EU

http://goo.gl/KMmirh

If the EU is so wonderful, Mr Obama, why don't you sign the USA up to it?

runnymede

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Good for you, Lucy.

We need you.

May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?

More power to your elbow.

Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?

Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.

I've saved your guidance just in case, and will think about it. There are 2 issues for me: (1) I haven't got much energy for anything; and (2) I haven't entirely made up my mind which way I'm going to vote myself.

I looked at the link you provided, and it occurred to me I could buy a T-shirt from both In and Out, and wear them on alternate days!

But it would be really great if Mr Cameron's Big Society really got going for the purpose of taking us out of the EU!

In true British style, if you believe in a fair fight, please do consider it a bit anyway: everyone should have a chance to consider the arguments for themselves without the deck being stacked.

If you're worried about the economics, have a read of the Woodford Report from Capital Economics (link at the start of the thread) that my europhile Banking friend praised.

There's nothing to be afraid of.

Also worth reading is Patrick's Minford's book which uses a different (and in my view better) modelling approach than many of the other studies out there and produces quite different results.

'Should Britain Leave the EU?: An Economic Analysis of a Troubled Relationship, Second Edition'

Speedy

First Indiana polls, 2 have Trump and Cruz tied, a 3rd one has Trump with a clear lead:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/trump-cruz-indiana-primary-polls-222287

"One survey, completed on April 12, had Ted Cruz and Donald Trump in a statistical tie: 32 percent to 32 percent, with John Kasich, governor of neighboring Ohio, a distant third, with 14 percent.
A second survey also had Trump and Cruz tied, but that was a change from three weeks earlier, when Cruz had led outside the margin of error.
A third survey, from last week, had Trump ahead of Cruz, outside the margin of error."

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
..

Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).

Good tips!

My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.

It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.

I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield

kle4

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Casino_Royale said:

"Dreda Say Mitchell: 'I'm black and voting for Leave. That shocks people' ":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104077

Tsk. I'm Asian and voting Leave

Bloody foreigners coming over here, telling us UK born citizens what to do.

Tory Racist!

I believe that's a tautology.

Sunil_Prasannan

Casino_Royale said:

nunu said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

(1) Buy leaflets here - personally I like "5 positive reasons" - and ship to your home address:
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/shop
(2) Print off google maps of your local area
(3) Get out a highlighter and carve up into leaflet runs (it takes longer than you think, estimate off 120 homes per hour max)
(4) Deliver to your plan in manageable chunks (not after dark)
(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)

Basically, you have to do it all yourself: buy, pay, receive, plan, deliver and check off.

But we don't have the resources of the Government or the EU, so we have no choice.

Fantastic work, Mr Royale. I just use my, ah, "e-leaflet" on here and Twitter

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
..

Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).

Good tips!

My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.

It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.

I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield

Enjoy. I agree with you that it's good fun campaigning.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
..

Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).

Good tips!

My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.

It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.

I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield

Enjoy. I agree with you that it's good fun campaigning.

Is for research purposes. Stronger IN are casting themselves as the underdogs, which I've found amusing.

I need to get a friend elected in May, but after that, it's full campaigning mode for the referendum.

I loved campaigning in 2015, 2001 was depressing

Casino_Royale

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

(1) Buy leaflets here - personally I like "5 positive reasons" - and ship to your home address:
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/shop
(2) Print off google maps of your local area
(3) Get out a highlighter and carve up into leaflet runs (it takes longer than you think, estimate off 120 homes per hour max)
(4) Deliver to your plan in manageable chunks (not after dark)
(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)

Basically, you have to do it all yourself: buy, pay, receive, plan, deliver and check off.

But we don't have the resources of the Government or the EU, so we have no choice.

Fantastic work, Mr Royale. I just use my, ah, "e-leaflet" on here and Twitter

Be BRAVE!
Be PROACTIVE!
Be OUTTHEREONTHESTREETSDELIVERINGREALLEAFLETSFORREAL!
Be LEAVE!

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
..

Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).

Good tips!

My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.

It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.

I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield

Enjoy. I agree with you that it's good fun campaigning.

Is for research purposes. Stronger IN are casting themselves as the underdogs, which I've found amusing.

I need to get a friend elected in May, but after that, it's full campaigning mode for the referendum.

I loved campaigning in 2015, 2001 was depressing

We all found 2001 depressing; I thought we were finished.

I won't lose all hope of a damascene conversion back to Leave at the 11th hour for you. Well, I need to believe it, at least.

Right, off now. Too much fun for one day.

Goodnight.

HYUFD

New Cruz ad imagines Clinton aides cheering on Trump but terrified of Ted!
http://64.147.104.30/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/277150-new-cruz-ad-imagines-clinton-war-room-cheering-on-trump

AnneJGP

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Good for you, Lucy.

We need you.

May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?

More power to your elbow.

Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?

Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.

I've saved your guidance just in case, and will think about it. There are 2 issues for me: (1) I haven't got much energy for anything; and (2) I haven't entirely made up my mind which way I'm going to vote myself.

I looked at the link you provided, and it occurred to me I could buy a T-shirt from both In and Out, and wear them on alternate days!

But it would be really great if Mr Cameron's Big Society really got going for the purpose of taking us out of the EU!

In true British style, if you believe in a fair fight, please do consider it a bit anyway: everyone should have a chance to consider the arguments for themselves without the deck being stacked.

If you're worried about the economics, have a read of the Woodford Report from Capital Economics (link at the start of the thread) that my europhile Banking friend praised.

There's nothing to be afraid of.

My dilemma is not one of the well-rehearsed ones.

Whether ill-advisedly or not, our leaders of the time signed up to the EU of their own free will. Is it right to renege on that?

I'd much rather the EU kicked us out, actually.

viewcode

Casino_Royale said:

This referendum never ceases to surprise me.

A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:

https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/

Believe it or not I do try to read the links people post on here: for example I read both of the VLTC links you posted recently, although I assume you have posted more which I have not noticed. However I only got about 20% of the way thru this one (https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/) before I started using unparliamentary language. It's not just the fact that it's sourced from the never-knowingly-correct Roger Bootle's Capital Economics: that didn't stop me reading Bootle's Euroexit essay from a few years back. It was because it was...well, let's just do the list. The report includes the following:

76 "could"s
70 " if "s
34 "may"s
30 "likely"s
25 "potential"s
18 "might"s
18 "estimate"s
14 "probably"s
12 "possible"s
11 "should"s
07 "probable"s
06 "think"s
05 "chance"s
06 "seems"s
05 "suggest"s
05 "appear"s
04 "assume"s
04 "believe"s
03 "doubt"s
03 "tend to"s
02 "possibiity"s
02 "on the other hand"s
01 "presumably"

and my favourites

01 "could potentially" (OH FOR F**KS SAKE!)
01 "certainly possible"

The report that your Deutsche Bank friend praised so extravagantly isn't a report, it's a fantasy in the literal sense: an indulgent thought exploration of a possible outcome. If your Deutsche Bank friend is recruiting, send me the link, because he *badly* needs somebody who can sieve.

another_richard

Dixie said:

It is difficult to forecast the London Assembly Member elections as the Mayoralty is clearly much more important. Therefore, the opinion polls only cover the Mayoralty and the two elections throw up different results. The YouGov opinion poll out today was startling. It shows a bigger margin for Khan than both Labour and Tory private polls are predicting.

Re; Assembly, historically, even when Ken in 2000 got about double Tory Steve Norris's vote, The Conservatives held Merton & Wandsworth etc. so Labour are unlikely to unseat us. That doesn't stop we blues from being nervous. We are working really hard on the London election and Labour are not, mainly due to their left wing issues and the fact that many of them don't like Khan. Labour Merton/Wandsworth candidate is doing sod all, which I hope continues.

There is a quiet Bradley effect out there, not enough to overcome 60/40, however 60/40 has not been seen before. Things may be solidifying for Khan but I don't see it. Tory data versus Labour bluster and I think Tories will get 2-4% more than opinion polls. If Cameron & co can keep quiet for a few weeks as well then Tories will do better. This remains a GOTV election and most Labour supporters are in Inner London, where their don't vote as often.

Interested to hear other people's views.

Is there any 'home borough' vote for Sadiq ?

But Zac should go down very well in Putney and Wimbledon as he has in neighbouring Richmond.

TheScreamingEagles

Barack Obama: As your friend, let me tell you that the EU makes Britain even greater

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

dr_spyn

I look forward to Cameron or Mr A N Other flying to Washington to advise American electors who to vote for in November.

another_richard

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
..

Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).

Good tips!

My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.

It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.

I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield

Enjoy. I agree with you that it's good fun campaigning.

Is for research purposes. Stronger IN are casting themselves as the underdogs, which I've found amusing.

I need to get a friend elected in May, but after that, it's full campaigning mode for the referendum.

I loved campaigning in 2015, 2001 was depressing

You're not campaigning for the Conservatives in Sheffield Hallam are you ?

RobD

dr_spyn said:

I look forward to Cameron or Mr A N Other flying to Washington to advise American electors who to vote for in November.

I think the Guardian tried that. Worked great for the Republicans

watford30

TheScreamingEagles said:

Barack Obama: As your friend, let me tell you that the EU makes Britain even greater

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

'As your friend...'

Do one Barry.

rottenborough

I'm not sure what side the Gods are on, but they seem determined to make sure that most of the first 10 min slots of nightly news are now filled with death of a major celebrity, rather than EU stuff :-)

TheScreamingEagles

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
..

Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).

Good tips!

My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.

It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.

I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield

Enjoy. I agree with you that it's good fun campaigning.

Is for research purposes. Stronger IN are casting themselves as the underdogs, which I've found amusing.

I need to get a friend elected in May, but after that, it's full campaigning mode for the referendum.

I loved campaigning in 2015, 2001 was depressing

You're not campaigning for the Conservatives in Sheffield Hallam are you ?

No, I'm going where there's a very good chance of electing a Tory councillor, in another part of Yorkshire

rottenborough

dr_spyn said:

I look forward to Cameron or Mr A N Other flying to Washington to advise American electors who to vote for in November.

Completely different. This is an ally advising on our key strategic relationships, not who we should vote as PM.

viewcode

Anyhoo, I didn't come here to plat fog. Some of you may be familiar with the AGC Blind Items website, your one-stop-shopping for sleb goss. It predicted Prince's death three days before it happened. See here: http://www.agcwebpages.com/BLINDITEMS/2016/APRIL.html

kle4

rottenborough said:

dr_spyn said:

I look forward to Cameron or Mr A N Other flying to Washington to advise American electors who to vote for in November.

Completely different. This is an ally advising on our key strategic relationships, not who we should vote as PM.

Yes, completely different, because they wouldn't react the exact same way to us going there on advising on their key strategic relationships which, coincidentally, very likely will lead to a change in PM depending on the result.

another_richard

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

how can i leaflet for leave? (ealing)

...(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)
..

Great advice Casino, i would add a couple of points.
(6) Do not leave a leaflet sticking out of the door - the occupant will get very p***** off as it says "no one home" to burglars.
(7) Some letterboxes have brushes behind them that hold up a leaflet so do take a piece of slim stiff wood or metal such as a ruler, to help the leaflet get through. Do not use fingers as per (5).

Good tips!

My biggest bugbear is finding the letterbox; some homeowners put them in truly bizarre places.

It does make manning a stall a bit more attractive.

I'm attending my first stall this weekend, in Sheffield

Enjoy. I agree with you that it's good fun campaigning.

Is for research purposes. Stronger IN are casting themselves as the underdogs, which I've found amusing.

I need to get a friend elected in May, but after that, it's full campaigning mode for the referendum.

I loved campaigning in 2015, 2001 was depressing

You're not campaigning for the Conservatives in Sheffield Hallam are you ?

No, I'm going where there's a very good chance of electing a Tory councillor, in another part of Yorkshire

Well have fun and good luck.

Have you ever read the endless Sheffield Hallam threads at UKPR ?

A ten year discussion as the Hallam Tories disintegrated:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/sheffieldhallam/comment-page-1/#comments

Irvine Patnick makes a comment back in 2007.

weejonnie

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

This referendum never ceases to surprise me.

A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:

https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/

Believe it or not I do try to read the links people post on here: for example I read both of the VLTC links you posted recently, although I assume you have posted more which I have not noticed. However I only got about 20% of the way thru this one (https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/) before I started using unparliamentary language. It's not just the fact that it's sourced from the never-knowingly-correct Roger Bootle's Capital Economics: that didn't stop me reading Bootle's Euroexit essay from a few years back. It was because it was...well, let's just do the list. The report includes the following:

76 "could"s
70 " if "s
34 "may"s
30 "likely"s
25 "potential"s
18 "might"s
18 "estimate"s
14 "probably"s
12 "possible"s
11 "should"s
07 "probable"s
06 "think"s
05 "chance"s
06 "seems"s
05 "suggest"s
05 "appear"s
04 "assume"s
04 "believe"s
03 "doubt"s
03 "tend to"s
02 "possibiity"s
02 "on the other hand"s
01 "presumably"

and my favourites

01 "could potentially" (OH FOR F**KS SAKE!)
01 "certainly possible"

The report that your Deutsche Bank friend praised so extravagantly isn't a report, it's a fantasy in the literal sense: an indulgent thought exploration of a possible outcome. If your Deutsche Bank friend is recruiting, send me the link, because he *badly* needs somebody who can sieve.

There are 108 could's in the treasury report. - and 140 if's

MP_SE

runnymede said:

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

FTP @ LucyJones

Many thanks for the donation. I'd be delighted if you joined in the leaflet crusade.

It doesn't cost much (£3.99 for a thousand) and you can deliver 150-200 each evening, which is what I'm doing.

People seem genuinely undecided, and are reading the material.

I've no excuse for not doing it, really. You've convinced me. I think there are only around 200 houses in my village in any case (including a supposedly "Eurosceptic" Cabinet Minister who decided to go for Remain after all - I'll make sure he gets one).

Good for you, Lucy.

We need you.

May I say how much I admire all of you who are leafletting from your own initiative rather than waiting for some central directive?

More power to your elbow.

Thank you. Why not join us, and spread the word?

Each of us can be a leader in this referendum.

I've saved your guidance just in case, and will think about it. There are 2 issues for me: (1) I haven't got much energy for anything; and (2) I haven't entirely made up my mind which way I'm going to vote myself.

I looked at the link you provided, and it occurred to me I could buy a T-shirt from both In and Out, and wear them on alternate days!

But it would be really great if Mr Cameron's Big Society really got going for the purpose of taking us out of the EU!

In true British style, if you believe in a fair fight, please do consider it a bit anyway: everyone should have a chance to consider the arguments for themselves without the deck being stacked.

If you're worried about the economics, have a read of the Woodford Report from Capital Economics (link at the start of the thread) that my europhile Banking friend praised.

There's nothing to be afraid of.

Also worth reading is Patrick's Minford's book which uses a different (and in my view better) modelling approach than many of the other studies out there and produces quite different results.

'Should Britain Leave the EU?: An Economic Analysis of a Troubled Relationship, Second Edition'

Would someone without a background in economics be able to understand a lot of Minford's book?

I have just purchased, "Dilemmas of European Integration: The Ambiguities and Pitfalls of Integration by Stealth" by Giandomenico Majone. Zero reviews on Amazon but could be an interesting read.

weejonnie

Also 62 May's, 75 likely's - shall we go on?

31 possible's 62 potential's 339 estimate's 34 should's 51 assume's

So if that previous report was rubbish, the treasury one wants to be used a bogroll.

Big_G_NorthWales

watford30 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Barack Obama: As your friend, let me tell you that the EU makes Britain even greater

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

'As your friend...'

Do one Barry.

If his feature in the telegraph is anything to go by he is not making a few comments but looks like it is going to be full on. Tin hats time

RobD

weejonnie said:

Also 62 May's, 75 likely's - shall we go on?

31 possible's 62 potential's 339 estimate's

So if that previous report was rubbish, the treasury one wants to be used a bogroll.

Given that it is a report based on what could happen if we left the EU, it is hardly surprising.

viewcode

weejonnie said:

Also 62 May's, 75 likely's - shall we go on?

31 possible's 62 potential's 339 estimate's

So if that previous report was rubbish, the treasury one wants to be used a bogroll.

Than previous report was rubbish...which is my point. Please feel free to use whatever you wish for bogroll.

rottenborough

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

dr_spyn said:

I look forward to Cameron or Mr A N Other flying to Washington to advise American electors who to vote for in November.

Completely different. This is an ally advising on our key strategic relationships, not who we should vote as PM.

Yes, completely different, because they wouldn't react the exact same way to us going there on advising on their key strategic relationships which, coincidentally, very likely will lead to a change in PM depending on the result.

Er, Churchill, Fulton, Missouri - 1946.

nunu

(1) Buy leaflets here - personally I like "5 positive reasons" - and ship to your home address:
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/shop
(2) Print off google maps of your local area
(3) Get out a highlighter and carve up into leaflet runs (it takes longer than you think, estimate off 120 homes per hour max)
(4) Deliver to your plan in manageable chunks (not after dark)
(5) Smile all the time - always close gates, respect property, paths and plants (and don't shove your fingers through the letterbox as well if there's a dog)

Basically, you have to do it all yourself: buy, pay, receive, plan, deliver and check off.

But we don't have the resources of the Government or the EU, so we have no choice.

thanx! isn't vote leave planning leafletting days i don't want to innundate people with leaflets, bloddy annoying.
Also you said always smile won't i look like a madman?

TheScreamingEagles

another_richard said:

Well have fun and good luck.

Have you ever read the endless Sheffield Hallam threads at UKPR ?

A ten year discussion as the Hallam Tories disintegrated:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/sheffieldhallam/comment-page-1/#comments

Irvine Patnick makes a comment back in 2007.

I have.

It's funny, I know a few Sheffield Hallam Lib Dems, and they reckon, if there were no boundary changes in 2020, The Tories might have a chance of winning the seat.

No Clegg, so the Tories get back their tactical Tories for Clegg voters, and add in Sheffield Hallam not being the sort of place that will take kindly to the kind politics and policies of Jeremy Corbyn.

It's the hope that gets you.

That said if Oliver Coppard is the candidate in 2020 Labour would have a real chance, you couldn't be helped but be impressed by his energy last year. I reckon he might be a contender for the Mayor of Greater Sheffield.

I mentioned downthread about canvassing in the 2001 general election, it was mostly in Sheffield Hallam, we thought we could retake the seat, after a few door knocks, it was clear we weren't

FrancisUrquhart

viewcode said:

Anyhoo, I didn't come here to plat fog. Some of you may be familiar with the AGC Blind Items website, your one-stop-shopping for sleb goss. It predicted Prince's death three days before it happened. See here: http://www.agcwebpages.com/BLINDITEMS/2016/APRIL.html

Crickey.....it fits with something that was said on CH4 news this evening as a passing comment by somebody who knew him.

HYUFD

FrancisUrquhart said:

viewcode said:

Anyhoo, I didn't come here to plat fog. Some of you may be familiar with the AGC Blind Items website, your one-stop-shopping for sleb goss. It predicted Prince's death three days before it happened. See here: http://www.agcwebpages.com/BLINDITEMS/2016/APRIL.html

Crickey.....

Yes, I saw that, I think the Flu was just the trigger for something more longstanding unfortunately

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

I'm not sure what side the Gods are on, but they seem determined to make sure that most of the first 10 min slots of nightly news are now filled with death of a major celebrity, rather than EU stuff :-)

Or HM's birthday

HYUFD

Cruz slams Trump's 'PC' stance on transgender bathrooms
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/21/cruz-slams-trump-pc-stance-transgender-bathrooms/