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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON voters give Dave a net 24% lead over Boris on whose EU

It is said, though I have no independent verification, that the Lynton Crosby analysis of the referendum is that the outers have to totally undermine Cameron’s reputation if they are to have a chance.
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44% trust
45% don't trust
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/31/leave-could-be-making-the-same-mistake-labour-made-at-the-2015-general-election/
He has been damaged in recent weeks, but not enough.
In Osborne's case, I think the damage is terminal.
If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.
Betting Post
F1: my pre-race piece, including an unusually large number of tips, is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/china-pre-race-2016.html
Odd for me to have lots of bets to choose from. Normally I struggle to find even one.
You will find similar patterns with other pollsters.
Depends on your timeframe.
But you're right, turnout will be key to the result. Something which I have a lot of difficulty predicting.
Curious, too, how all OGH's headers are how Leave will perform disastrously if they don't do X or Y or Z, and yet they are level pegging in the polls.
They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.
Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.
Remain need Dave to pull in about 50% of the Tory voters and Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP and PC to turnout large numbers of their supporters.
Off topic:
Eddie the Eagle = inspirational.
Eye in the Sky = sobering.
Highly recommend both films.
http://tinyurl.com/zetxp43
If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up to explain to us why the poll has been wrongly interpreted. It's like ground-hog day. LOL
http://youtu.be/IrJhlVODG3w
If that hasn't happened in a month, I may need to revise my prediction (roughly a 60/40 Remain win).
We are in the middle of a very long campaign and we have the leading figure of that campaign watching his image plummet particularly with the non-tory voters.
David Cameron’s reputation is mostly in his own hands. It is he who has done most to undermine it so far.
"YouGov’s latest topline figures for the EU referendum are REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 50%. Looking at the underlying questions, there are a couple of significant movements in favour of LEAVE. Firstly on terrorism, 25% of people now think that Britain would be safer from terrorism if we left the EU (up from 16% back in February) – perhaps an impact from the Brussels terrorist attacks. Secondly trust in David Cameron on the issue of Europe has dropped sharply, from 29% to 21%."
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-36062126
http://globalbritain.co.uk/sites/default/files/publications/Global Britain Main Presentaion.pdf
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3543237/Video-Stalingrad-Metro-Paris-shows-violent-clashes-erupt-migrant-camp.html
Maybe the Pope can pop over for a visit...
Edit: Just read whole chain sorry. Norway NOT being members was their own status quo just as us being members is ours.
If you're trying to predict the future rather than win an argument it is critical to realise a status quo does exist.
And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.
Only the fallout will be worse.
That is why I am puzzled by Dave's approach. He is trashing his reputation and the electability of his party, when the chances of the EU being around and/or us being in it in five years time don't look good. Meanwhile we have the burden of being shackled to a corpse.
The public generally don't vote in EU elections and don't rate it in their top list of things to be concerned about, so personally I can see a low turn-out. As the article says Leavers are more fired up to make the effort. Factor in some idiot arranging this in the middle of the European football championships and Glastonbury and it looks bad.
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/how-rising-unemployment-and-turnout-could-deliver-brexit/
Trump building bridges with Fox.
http://www.bbc.com/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36061712
I also don't think the campaign has even started yet, all the Remain parties won't get going till after May. I won't door knocking till the last week of May. It is also my belief that there will be a significant swing to Remain in the last weeks of the campaign. People may flirt with the idea now but once the risks become apparent many will waver. If the best Leave can offer is 50/50 in a few internet polls at this stage then I think their chances of winning are slim.
Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.
The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36063743
With right wing Tory members yes, with Tory voters probably not.
The big three reasons that the EU will break would appear to be terrorism (ie security vs open borders), migration (a massive influx into say Germany and increasingly desperate attempts to foist migrants on other countries) or financial (Greece implodes and the banks were not as well insulated as we hoped). Or a combination of course, a collapsing Greece opens is borders and pushes it's migrants out, or whatever.
Controlling our own borders, setting our own immigration policies, and not being subject to capricious demands for money to bail out the latest screw-up would seem to be a good idea under those circumstances.
The proponents of this conflate their own dislike of the EU with logic..
Allowing us to compare what Osborne predicted he would borrow in his 2010 Budget and what he has actually borrowed (and you will have to repay).
Predicted Borrowing
2010/11 £149bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £89bn
2013/14 £60bn
2014/15 £37bn
2015/16 £20bn
Actual Borrowing
2010/11 £137bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £121bn
2013/14 £103bn
2014/15 £92bn
2015/16 ???
We will thus be able to put a monetary value to the description 'near perfect'.