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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON voters give Dave a net 24% lead over Boris on whose EU

SystemSystem Posts: 12,558
edited April 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON voters give Dave a net 24% lead over Boris on whose EU statements/claims are trusted

It is said, though I have no independent verification, that the Lynton Crosby analysis of the referendum is that the outers have to totally undermine Cameron’s reputation if they are to have a chance.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,646
    edited April 2016
    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Ah, Mike has written the idea I was toying with for a thread!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,646
    Back in Feb CON voters told YouGov by 56% to 31% that they trusted Boris on EU. Latest CON voters on Boris on EU
    44% trust
    45% don't trust
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,059
    edited April 2016
    Slightly surprised he's still got that much of a lead to be honest, when it comes to EU statements.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    The information above does not preclude that from also being true. As we know, one can come top in a ballot of Tories but not by enough to keep going, so 'ruined' could be taken to mean 'sufficiently damaged' rather than 'entirely destroyed'.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Surprised at Gove. Tory members/activists obviously have a very different view of him to Tory voters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,646
    Almost like Sir Lynton and I have a similar viewpoint

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/31/leave-could-be-making-the-same-mistake-labour-made-at-the-2015-general-election/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Almost like Sir Lynton and I have a similar viewpoint

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/31/leave-could-be-making-the-same-mistake-labour-made-at-the-2015-general-election/

    The question is whether there is "time" for Cameron to become an unpopular leader without any economic credibility.

    He has been damaged in recent weeks, but not enough.

    In Osborne's case, I think the damage is terminal.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,184
    Well, considering a vociferous Leaver on the previous thread has just said of Boris's EU pronouncements that 'I don't think he particularly believes what he's saying' this polling comes as scant surprise.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,646
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    Dave has made many mistakes IMHO but his good points far outweigh the bad.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,717
    Betting Post
    F1: my pre-race piece, including an unusually large number of tips, is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/china-pre-race-2016.html

    Odd for me to have lots of bets to choose from. Normally I struggle to find even one.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,893
    EurophileBetting.com :lol:
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,184
    edited April 2016
    Of course, there remains the horrific possibility that a lot of people vote Tory because - instead of despite the fact - Dave isn't a swivel-eyed euro-phobe.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    And yet YouGov polls have the referendum TCTC - would have thought that with YouGov tories approving of the PM as opposed to Gove (compared to the majority of Tories wanting LEAVE and therefore presumably being more inclined to trust Gove) that YouGov would be over-representing REMAIN.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,059
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Of course, there remains the horrific possibility that a lot of people vote Tory because - instead of despite the fact - Dave isn't a swivel-eyed euro-phobe.

    Yes indeed, but at the least a significant minority are such people and while they could overlook that in normal times, they won't anymore.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,646
    edited April 2016
    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    Two years ago Leave had a lead with YouGov, now Remain is ahead

    You will find similar patterns with other pollsters.

    Depends on your timeframe.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,646
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    But this presumes phone polls are more accurate. I know there are vague reason why that MIGHT be the case, but no one knows for sure. And you can't compare this referendum to a general election. It is sui generis.

    Turnout will be crucial and some experts think it could be 40% and others 70%.

    The only sensible thing is to do what John Curtice does, and accept all the polling at face value, as a very rough guide to what the public might be thinking. And that rough guide tells us: 50/50. Which implies Cameron is not persuading people. Possibly the opposite. So far.
    ComRes wrote a very persuasive argument why the phone polls would be more accurate.

    But you're right, turnout will be key to the result. Something which I have a lot of difficulty predicting.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    I wonder how many of the pro-Dave respondents are guilty-loyal - saying nice things about him out of guilt from intending to vote against him.

    Curious, too, how all OGH's headers are how Leave will perform disastrously if they don't do X or Y or Z, and yet they are level pegging in the polls.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 599
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    But this presumes phone polls are more accurate. I know there are vague reason why that MIGHT be the case, but no one knows for sure. And you can't compare this referendum to a general election. It is sui generis.

    Turnout will be crucial and some experts think it could be 40% and others 70%.

    The only sensible thing is to do what John Curtice does, and accept all the polling at face value, as a very rough guide to what the public might be thinking. And that rough guide tells us: 50/50. Which implies Cameron is not persuading people. Possibly the opposite. So far.
    I think the phone polls are wrong. A lot of leavers are miserable stroppy gits and a lot of remainers are gullible credulous wimps . Who is most likely to respond to a phone poll?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.

    They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.

    Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Casino_Royale said:

    Surprised at Gove. Tory members/activists obviously have a very different view of him to Tory voters.

    Probably all the Tory teachers, Mr Royale, whom Gove has managed to upset.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    I don't trust this poll. It's probably the inverse of reality.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,049
    PB Leavers & Tory members totally unrepresentative of Tory voters (let alone the electorate at large) Who would have thought it ?

    Remain need Dave to pull in about 50% of the Tory voters and Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP and PC to turnout large numbers of their supporters.
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    Whilst not a Boris fan, I thought he did well against Laura Keunssberg, another of those BBC interviewers who has to "act" her way through the interview. Boris just has to get a more fluid speaking style, he leaves far too many gaps for the interviewer to jump in, then loses his thread (and tidy himself up).

    Off topic:

    Eddie the Eagle = inspirational.
    Eye in the Sky = sobering.

    Highly recommend both films.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,981
    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst not a Boris fan, I thought he did well against Laura Keunssberg, another of those BBC interviewers who has to "act" her way through the interview. Boris just has to get a more fluid speaking style, he leaves far too many gaps for the interviewer to jump in, then loses his thread (and tidy himself up).

    Off topic:

    Eddie the Eagle = inspirational.
    Eye in the Sky = sobering.

    Highly recommend both films.

    I thought he did very well too.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,049
    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,226
    Giles Coren is no longer a wanker. Apparently.

    http://tinyurl.com/zetxp43
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    chestnut said:

    The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.
    They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.
    Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.

    Thankyou Chestnut. Cameron has already lost most of what he is likely to lose from the GE2015 Conservative voters. We can see some of that with UKIP polling higher. I see no reason to change my view that this referendum is about the GE2015 Labour voters and how and whether they vote.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.

    If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,049
    chestnut said:

    The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.

    They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.

    Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.


    I wondered how long it would be before you popped up to explain to us why the poll has been wrongly interpreted. It's like ground-hog day. LOL
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    MarkHopkins said:

    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.

    If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.

    Indeed. What else can we expect from Project Fear?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,184
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Giles Coren is no longer a wanker. Apparently.

    http://tinyurl.com/zetxp43

    Bloody hell. I've read essays on the Cold War shorter than that.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chestnut said:

    The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.

    They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.

    Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.

    Do you really think that people who voted LibDem in 2015 now express a voting preference for the Tories? It seems very implausible to me.

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    foxinsoxuk said:

    chestnut said:

    The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.

    They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.

    Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.

    Do you really think that people who voted LibDem in 2015 now express a voting preference for the Tories? It seems very implausible to me.

    Hello, Dr Foxinsox.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Giles Coren is no longer a wanker. Apparently.

    http://tinyurl.com/zetxp43

    That article would have been subject to a government injunction not very long ago.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited April 2016
    TV charity advertising will no longer be allowed to use cute animals if we Leave

    http://youtu.be/IrJhlVODG3w
    MP_SE said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.

    If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.

    Indeed. What else can we expect from Project Fear?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    foxinsoxuk said:

    chestnut said:

    The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.

    They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.

    Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.

    Do you really think that people who voted LibDem in 2015 now express a voting preference for the Tories? It seems very implausible to me.

    It's what they are telling Yougov.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,042
    edited April 2016
    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    OllyT said:

    I wondered how long it would be before you popped up to explain to us why the poll has been wrongly interpreted.

    I haven't said anything has been 'wrongly interpreted'.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.
    I suspect Cameron made a big mistake in campaigning in full GE mode immediately following the'Deal'. Even many political anoraks are getting sick to death with the thing!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,226
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Giles Coren is no longer a wanker. Apparently.

    http://tinyurl.com/zetxp43

    Bloody hell. I've read essays on the Cold War shorter than that.
    It's certainly lavishly tooled.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    As someone living in Norwich who cannot abide football I am delighted to hear of Sunderland's 3-0 victory. My relegation hopes have been boosted!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,042
    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.
    If Egg and Chips hasn't appealed to the voters so far, why would Double Egg and Chips appeal in the future?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,049
    MarkHopkins said:

    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.

    If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.

    Depends whether the electorate find Remain's economic fears more credible than Leavers promises of a land of milk and honey
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016
    OllyT said:

    chestnut said:

    The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.

    They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.

    Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.


    I wondered how long it would be before you popped up to explain to us why the poll has been wrongly interpreted. It's like ground-hog day. LOL
    I wondered how long it would be before you popped up and started hand waving. We get it Dave is wonderful, the deal was fantastic, the Remain platform is right on the money, Boris completely screwed it up, the Leavers are a bunch of idiots with no idea how to run a campaign, I'll even give you Gove, Galloway and Farage.... Okay having granted you all that, can you please tell us why the polls are 50/50, and getting worse for Remain, I am sure we would all be fascinated to hear.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    justin124 said:

    As someone living in Norwich who cannot abide football I am delighted to hear of Sunderland's 3-0 victory. My relegation hopes have been boosted!

    You seem to be under some misapprehension that football doesn't exist outside of the Premier League.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,717
    Just on the polling, I'm still not too fussed about it being neck-and-neck. At the moment, I still expect a shift back to Remain.

    If that hasn't happened in a month, I may need to revise my prediction (roughly a 60/40 Remain win).
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    OllyT said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.

    If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.

    Depends whether the electorate find Remain's economic fears more credible than Leavers promises of a land of milk and honey
    Andrew Neil said that one country that rejected the EC in a referendum (Norway i think) did so in a campaign where those pro the EC spent most of the campaign in a project fear mode which by the end of the lengthy campaign was being openly mocked for all the doom mongering.

    We are in the middle of a very long campaign and we have the leading figure of that campaign watching his image plummet particularly with the non-tory voters.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    OllyT said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.

    If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.

    Depends whether the electorate find Remain's economic fears more credible than Leavers promises of a land of milk and honey
    The sunny uplands is usually a more appealing vision.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Sean_F said:

    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.
    If Egg and Chips hasn't appealed to the voters so far, why would Double Egg and Chips appeal in the future?
    No egg and chips and an empty plate has not worked so will a future with nothing, not even an empty plate work?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    The significant proportion of the population are taking no interest in the EU referendum (beyond arranging their TV viewing to avoid it), and will "switch-on" for about the minimum period. For many who already know how they will vote (if they do) that will be the day of the vote.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    He wants a Ted Heath legacy?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,132
    "It is said ... that the Lynton Crosby analysis of the referendum is that the outers have to totally undermine Cameron’s reputation if they are to have a chance."
    David Cameron’s reputation is mostly in his own hands. It is he who has done most to undermine it so far.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    From 14th April.
    "YouGov’s latest topline figures for the EU referendum are REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 50%. Looking at the underlying questions, there are a couple of significant movements in favour of LEAVE. Firstly on terrorism, 25% of people now think that Britain would be safer from terrorism if we left the EU (up from 16% back in February) – perhaps an impact from the Brussels terrorist attacks. Secondly trust in David Cameron on the issue of Europe has dropped sharply, from 29% to 21%."
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Well quite.
    geoffw said:

    "It is said ... that the Lynton Crosby analysis of the referendum is that the outers have to totally undermine Cameron’s reputation if they are to have a chance."
    David Cameron’s reputation is mostly in his own hands. It is he who has done most to undermine it so far.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,717
    Meanwhile, some good religious news:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-36062126
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    OllyT said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.

    If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.

    Depends whether the electorate find Remain's economic fears more credible than Leavers promises of a land of milk and honey
    The sunny uplands is usually a more appealing vision.
    I think Leave need to attack Remain over constantly talking down the UK. I attended an interesting presentation by Global Britain which was very similar to this one:

    http://globalbritain.co.uk/sites/default/files/publications/Global Britain Main Presentaion.pdf
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,733
    TCPoliticalBetting said:


    Andrew Neil said that one country that rejected the EC in a referendum (Norway i think) did so in a campaign where those pro the EC spent most of the campaign in a project fear mode which by the end of the lengthy campaign was being openly mocked for all the doom mongering.

    It's hard to fear monger the status quo.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    alex. said:

    justin124 said:

    As someone living in Norwich who cannot abide football I am delighted to hear of Sunderland's 3-0 victory. My relegation hopes have been boosted!

    You seem to be under some misapprehension that football doesn't exist outside of the Premier League.

    I did know that actually - but the coverage tends to be in a lower key. Less danger of constantly passing newspaper stands headlining 'City this ... City that.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edmundintokyo said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:


    Andrew Neil said that one country that rejected the EC in a referendum (Norway i think) did so in a campaign where those pro the EC spent most of the campaign in a project fear mode which by the end of the lengthy campaign was being openly mocked for all the doom mongering.

    It's hard to fear monger the status quo.
    What is this status quo of which you speak ?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,184
    Of course, presumably these polls were conducted when the residue of Dave's tax 'scandal' was still thick in the air. It's amazing how the mood has shifted since then, with Dave now regarded as the blameless victim of an orchestrated witch hunt. We Brits love the heroic underdog and the sturdy under fire. Might give's Dave's standing a significant boost with all the positive consequences for Remain that would entail.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,319
    Ferocious battle involving hundreds of rioters erupts at migrant camp under Paris Metro as terrified residents film the clashes from their windows above

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3543237/Video-Stalingrad-Metro-Paris-shows-violent-clashes-erupt-migrant-camp.html

    Maybe the Pope can pop over for a visit...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited April 2016
    Indigo said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:


    Andrew Neil said that one country that rejected the EC in a referendum (Norway i think) did so in a campaign where those pro the EC spent most of the campaign in a project fear mode which by the end of the lengthy campaign was being openly mocked for all the doom mongering.

    It's hard to fear monger the status quo.
    What is this status quo of which you speak ?
    We are members of the EU today. That is the status quo to anyone who isn't obtuse.

    Edit: Just read whole chain sorry. Norway NOT being members was their own status quo just as us being members is ours.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    justin124 said:

    alex. said:

    justin124 said:

    As someone living in Norwich who cannot abide football I am delighted to hear of Sunderland's 3-0 victory. My relegation hopes have been boosted!

    You seem to be under some misapprehension that football doesn't exist outside of the Premier League.

    I did know that actually - but the coverage tends to be in a lower key. Less danger of constantly passing newspaper stands headlining 'City this ... City that.
    Danger? Get a grip.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Indigo said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:


    Andrew Neil said that one country that rejected the EC in a referendum (Norway i think) did so in a campaign where those pro the EC spent most of the campaign in a project fear mode which by the end of the lengthy campaign was being openly mocked for all the doom mongering.

    It's hard to fear monger the status quo.
    What is this status quo of which you speak ?
    We are members of the EU today. That is the status quo to anyone who isn't obtuse.

    Edit: Just read whole chain sorry. Norway NOT being members was their own status quo just as us being members is ours.
    Yes, but we shouldn't be buying the politicians fantasy that it will be the same in five years time as it is now. Remain doesnt mean an EU frozen in aspic. The debate is which is going to be the bigger risk, anyone that claims to know the answer to that is lying, the difference is we get a choice in which way we want to go if we leave, we are just along for the ride if we remain.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Philip_Thompson said:

    justin124 said:

    alex. said:

    justin124 said:

    As someone living in Norwich who cannot abide football I am delighted to hear of Sunderland's 3-0 victory. My relegation hopes have been boosted!

    You seem to be under some misapprehension that football doesn't exist outside of the Premier League.

    I did know that actually - but the coverage tends to be in a lower key. Less danger of constantly passing newspaper stands headlining 'City this ... City that.
    Danger? Get a grip.
    Lol. Ipswich and Norwich in the same division isn't exactly a recipe for a quite life either ;)

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,036
    One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,670
    alex. said:

    The significant proportion of the population are taking no interest in the EU referendum (beyond arranging their TV viewing to avoid it), and will "switch-on" for about the minimum period. For many who already know how they will vote (if they do) that will be the day of the vote.

    Wise words. As ever on PB we often tend to think people are as interested in politics as we are.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Indigo said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Indigo said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:


    Andrew Neil said that one country that rejected the EC in a referendum (Norway i think) did so in a campaign where those pro the EC spent most of the campaign in a project fear mode which by the end of the lengthy campaign was being openly mocked for all the doom mongering.

    It's hard to fear monger the status quo.
    What is this status quo of which you speak ?
    We are members of the EU today. That is the status quo to anyone who isn't obtuse.

    Edit: Just read whole chain sorry. Norway NOT being members was their own status quo just as us being members is ours.
    Yes, but we shouldn't be buying the politicians fantasy that it will be the same in five years time as it is now. Remain doesnt mean an EU frozen in aspic. The debate is which is going to be the bigger risk, anyone that claims to know the answer to that is lying, the difference is we get a choice in which way we want to go if we leave, we are just along for the ride if we remain.
    The public will buy it quite rightly because we are members today. Leaving is an immediate change, remaining we face evolutionary changes. Like the story of boiling a frog alive by slowly turning up the heat.

    If you're trying to predict the future rather than win an argument it is critical to realise a status quo does exist.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day

    Yes.

    And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.

    Only the fallout will be worse.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,036
    Indigo said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day

    Yes.

    And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.

    Only the fallout will be worse.
    Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Indigo said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day

    Yes.

    And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.

    Only the fallout will be worse.
    Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
    I agree that the EU is doomed and the sooner we unshackle ourselves from this failing project the sooner we can create a bright future for ourselves. Enduring more years of the bloated regulations and anti enterprise of this socialist entity, will only harm us further.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Indigo said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day

    Yes.

    And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.

    Only the fallout will be worse.
    Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
    Yes, that is one of the reason I think we are better out, because if the wheels start coming off the EU elite are going to get desperate, and then who knows what will happen given their record of ignoring treaties when it becomes inconvenient. I can't see how the fallout from a messy disintegration of the EU will be better for our country from the inside.

    That is why I am puzzled by Dave's approach. He is trashing his reputation and the electability of his party, when the chances of the EU being around and/or us being in it in five years time don't look good. Meanwhile we have the burden of being shackled to a corpse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,670
    edited April 2016
    This analysis may have already been posted (apologies), but anyway, the 2nd half should strike real fear into any Remain campaigners. A low general turn-out of 50%, with more enthusiasm by Leavers means it's on a knife-edge or worse, lost.

    The public generally don't vote in EU elections and don't rate it in their top list of things to be concerned about, so personally I can see a low turn-out. As the article says Leavers are more fired up to make the effort. Factor in some idiot arranging this in the middle of the European football championships and Glastonbury and it looks bad.

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/how-rising-unemployment-and-turnout-could-deliver-brexit/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,100
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/04/14/megyn-kelly-made-up-with-donald-trump-everyone-else-on-the-right-will-do-the-same/

    Trump building bridges with Fox.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2016
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Indigo said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day

    Yes.

    And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.

    Only the fallout will be worse.
    Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
    Assuming the EU is doomed as a project there will come a point when our membership is untenable. If the country is being run by a Europhile Tory or Labour government we may not be given the chance of having another referendum. We would be shackled to a sinking ship with no way of escaping. That in my opinion carries the greater risk.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,036
    rottenborough said:

    This analysis may have already been posted (apologies), but anyway, the 2nd half should strike real fear into any Remain campaigners. A low general turn-out of 50%, with more enthusiasm by Leavers means it's on a knife-edge or worse, lost.

    The public generally don't vote in EU elections and don't rate it in their top list of things to be concerned about, so personally I can see a low turn-out. As the article says Leavers are more fired up to make the effort. Factor in some idiot arranging this in the middle of the European football championships and Glastonbury and it looks bad.

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/how-rising-unemployment-and-turnout-could-deliver-brexit/

    I agree the public don't vote in EU elections but there has not been anything like this for 40 years and the 24/7 media coverage, together with the televised debates, has raised the profile to that of a General Election and a turnout of 65% or more must be likely
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,036
    MP_SE said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Indigo said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day

    Yes.

    And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.

    Only the fallout will be worse.
    Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
    Assuming the EU is doomed as a project there will come a point when our membership is untenable. If the country is being run by a Europhile Tory or Labour government we may not be given the chance of having another referendum. We would be shackled to a sinking ship with no way of escaping. That in my opinion carries the greater risk.
    Yes I agree but if you look at how my son and his partner view the risk of higher interest rates as one of concern by leaving this could be one of the main reasons remain wins the day
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,319
    I can't believe the media are buying this...it is so obviously a prepared question / answer. The answer is far too concise and on point and all neatly wrapped up into a 20s soundbite. Nobody when normally asked a question can instantly formulate such a succinct response to a complex subject.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36061712
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,670
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    This analysis may have already been posted (apologies), but anyway, the 2nd half should strike real fear into any Remain campaigners. A low general turn-out of 50%, with more enthusiasm by Leavers means it's on a knife-edge or worse, lost.

    The public generally don't vote in EU elections and don't rate it in their top list of things to be concerned about, so personally I can see a low turn-out. As the article says Leavers are more fired up to make the effort. Factor in some idiot arranging this in the middle of the European football championships and Glastonbury and it looks bad.

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/how-rising-unemployment-and-turnout-could-deliver-brexit/

    I agree the public don't vote in EU elections but there has not been anything like this for 40 years and the 24/7 media coverage, together with the televised debates, has raised the profile to that of a General Election and a turnout of 65% or more must be likely
    As a Remainer I hope you are right.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,049
    Indigo said:

    OllyT said:

    chestnut said:

    The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.

    They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.

    Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.


    I wondered how long it would be before you popped up to explain to us why the poll has been wrongly interpreted. It's like ground-hog day. LOL
    I wondered how long it would be before you popped up and started hand waving. We get it Dave is wonderful, the deal was fantastic, the Remain platform is right on the money, Boris completely screwed it up, the Leavers are a bunch of idiots with no idea how to run a campaign, I'll even give you Gove, Galloway and Farage.... Okay having granted you all that, can you please tell us why the polls are 50/50, and getting worse for Remain, I am sure we would all be fascinated to hear.
    Only internet polls are showing it 50/50 and there is considerable concerns about there inaccuracy. But for argument's sake lets say they are 50/50/ The lesson many learned from GE 2015 was that underlying factors like trust in Cameron v Miliband proved a more reliable predictor of the outcome than the viols.

    I also don't think the campaign has even started yet, all the Remain parties won't get going till after May. I won't door knocking till the last week of May. It is also my belief that there will be a significant swing to Remain in the last weeks of the campaign. People may flirt with the idea now but once the risks become apparent many will waver. If the best Leave can offer is 50/50 in a few internet polls at this stage then I think their chances of winning are slim.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,319
    Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts.
    Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.

    The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.

    Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36063743
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,712
    Casino_Royale said:

    Surprised at Gove. Tory members/activists obviously have a very different view of him to Tory voters.

    That's why he's a risky leader choice. I like him myself because I like nerdish, dedicated politicians, but the public prefers the more affable, expansive types.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,036
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts.
    Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.

    The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.

    Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36063743

    Bit 1970's
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,670
    OllyT said:

    Indigo said:

    OllyT said:

    chestnut said:

    The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.

    They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.

    Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.


    I wondered how long it would be before you popped up to explain to us why the poll has been wrongly interpreted. It's like ground-hog day. LOL
    I wondered how long it would be before you popped up and started hand waving. We get it Dave is wonderful, the deal was fantastic, the Remain platform is right on the money, Boris completely screwed it up, the Leavers are a bunch of idiots with no idea how to run a campaign, I'll even give you Gove, Galloway and Farage.... Okay having granted you all that, can you please tell us why the polls are 50/50, and getting worse for Remain, I am sure we would all be fascinated to hear.
    Only internet polls are showing it 50/50 and there is considerable concerns about there inaccuracy. But for argument's sake lets say they are 50/50/ The lesson many learned from GE 2015 was that underlying factors like trust in Cameron v Miliband proved a more reliable predictor of the outcome than the viols.

    I also don't think the campaign has even started yet, all the Remain parties won't get going till after May. I won't door knocking till the last week of May. It is also my belief that there will be a significant swing to Remain in the last weeks of the campaign. People may flirt with the idea now but once the risks become apparent many will waver. If the best Leave can offer is 50/50 in a few internet polls at this stage then I think their chances of winning are slim.

    Desperately complacent IMHO. But I hope you are right.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,049
    Sean_F said:

    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.
    If Egg and Chips hasn't appealed to the voters so far, why would Double Egg and Chips appeal in the future?
    Basically it is over 2 months away and all we have really heard from so far is Tories. That will change, Labour/ Lib Dems/ SNP/ Greens/ PC will just need to focus their efforts on GOTV. Project Fear aimed at non-Tories will be different from Tory Project Fear.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,049
    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.


    With right wing Tory members yes, with Tory voters probably not.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,670
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts.
    Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.

    The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.

    Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36063743

    See 'Cameron must Go' actually seems to be the main message. Has this been organized by Boris? :-)
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MP_SE said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Indigo said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day

    Yes.

    And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.

    Only the fallout will be worse.
    Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
    Assuming the EU is doomed as a project there will come a point when our membership is untenable. If the country is being run by a Europhile Tory or Labour government we may not be given the chance of having another referendum. We would be shackled to a sinking ship with no way of escaping. That in my opinion carries the greater risk.
    Yes I agree but if you look at how my son and his partner view the risk of higher interest rates as one of concern by leaving this could be one of the main reasons remain wins the day
    Hard to argue against kicking the can down the road, that is why it is so popular with politicians ;)

    The big three reasons that the EU will break would appear to be terrorism (ie security vs open borders), migration (a massive influx into say Germany and increasingly desperate attempts to foist migrants on other countries) or financial (Greece implodes and the banks were not as well insulated as we hoped). Or a combination of course, a collapsing Greece opens is borders and pushes it's migrants out, or whatever.

    Controlling our own borders, setting our own immigration policies, and not being subject to capricious demands for money to bail out the latest screw-up would seem to be a good idea under those circumstances.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,981
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Indigo said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day

    Yes.

    And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.

    Only the fallout will be worse.
    Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
    I therefore fail to understand why you want to be there when that happens.
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659
    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.


    With right wing Tory members yes, with Tory voters probably not.
    Agreed.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    OllyT said:

    I also don't think the campaign has even started yet, all the Remain parties won't get going till after May. I won't door knocking till the last week of May. It is also my belief that there will be a significant swing to Remain in the last weeks of the campaign. People may flirt with the idea now but once the risks become apparent many will waver. If the best Leave can offer is 50/50 in a few internet polls at this stage then I think their chances of winning are slim.

    Well that is all speculation, I guess we are going to have to wait and see. Maybe we will stay in... for a few years anyway.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.


    With right wing Tory members yes, with Tory voters probably not.
    Aside from that 10% of Tory voters that seem to have moved to UKIP in the recent VI polls...
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659
    MP_SE said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Indigo said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day

    Yes.

    And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.

    Only the fallout will be worse.
    Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
    Assuming the EU is doomed as a project there will come a point when our membership is untenable. If the country is being run by a Europhile Tory or Labour government we may not be given the chance of having another referendum. We would be shackled to a sinking ship with no way of escaping. That in my opinion carries the greater risk.
    I have read "the EU is doomed" for at least the past 20 years.

    The proponents of this conflate their own dislike of the EU with logic..

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,319
    edited April 2016
    I notice the Guardian seem to have gone very quiet on Panama Papers....was that all they got out of 2.6TB of data? What has been revealed so far is nothing we didn't already know i.e. Putin has very close "friends" who have incredible wealth despite jobs that couldn't pay that well and that Cameron Snr ran an offshore fund...both of these were already well known.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,036
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Indigo said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day

    Yes.

    And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.

    Only the fallout will be worse.
    Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
    I therefore fail to understand why you want to be there when that happens.
    In my son and partners case it is the threat of higher mortgage rates in the short to medium term that is important to them but none of us have made a definitive decision on our vote
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,848
    Its likely to be another bad week for George Osborne with the full government borrowing for 2015/16 published on Thursday.

    Allowing us to compare what Osborne predicted he would borrow in his 2010 Budget and what he has actually borrowed (and you will have to repay).

    Predicted Borrowing
    2010/11 £149bn
    2011/12 £116bn
    2012/13 £89bn
    2013/14 £60bn
    2014/15 £37bn
    2015/16 £20bn

    Actual Borrowing
    2010/11 £137bn
    2011/12 £116bn
    2012/13 £121bn
    2013/14 £103bn
    2014/15 £92bn
    2015/16 ???

    We will thus be able to put a monetary value to the description 'near perfect'. :wink:

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,049
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    OllyT said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    With 67 days to go, even if phone polling is ahead, this isn't what CCHQ expected 50/50

    The trend isn't with Remain. And we know the trend is usually your friend.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.

    I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.

    But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah

    And the polls are 50/50.

    Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
    Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).

    If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
    The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.

    If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.

    Depends whether the electorate find Remain's economic fears more credible than Leavers promises of a land of milk and honey
    Andrew Neil said that one country that rejected the EC in a referendum (Norway i think) did so in a campaign where those pro the EC spent most of the campaign in a project fear mode which by the end of the lengthy campaign was being openly mocked for all the doom mongering.

    We are in the middle of a very long campaign and we have the leading figure of that campaign watching his image plummet particularly with the non-tory voters.
    The Remain parties won't be relying on Cameron to get their votes out. Cameron's importance is in getting the Remain vote as high as possible amongst Tory voters. and he has every chance of doing that. 50/50 of Tories should be enough.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I notice the Guardian seem to have gone very quiet on Panama Papers....was that all they got out of 2.6TB of data? What has been revealed so far is nothing we didn't already know i.e. Putin has very close "friends" who have incredible wealth despite jobs that couldn't pay that well and that Cameron Snr ran an offshore fund...both of these were already well known.

    Seems to have been a bit of a disappointment for them, newspapers in other countries have been having rather more fun.
This discussion has been closed.