Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.
I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.
But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah
And the polls are 50/50.
Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).
If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.
If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.
Depends whether the electorate find Remain's economic fears more credible than Leavers promises of a land of milk and honey
Andrew Neil said that one country that rejected the EC in a referendum (Norway i think) did so in a campaign where those pro the EC spent most of the campaign in a project fear mode which by the end of the lengthy campaign was being openly mocked for all the doom mongering.
We are in the middle of a very long campaign and we have the leading figure of that campaign watching his image plummet particularly with the non-tory voters.
The Remain parties won't be relying on Cameron to get their votes out. Cameron's importance is in getting the Remain vote as high as possible amongst Tory voters. and he has every chance of doing that. 50/50 of Tories should be enough.
Andrew Neil said that one country that rejected the EC in a referendum (Norway i think) did so in a campaign where those pro the EC spent most of the campaign in a project fear mode which by the end of the lengthy campaign was being openly mocked for all the doom mongering.
It's hard to fear monger the status quo.
What is this status quo of which you speak ?
I understand what you are saying but it has no traction outside of committed Leavers. Being in the EU is what people are used to, it is the status quo to them. Leaving is the step into the unknown
One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day
Yes.
And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.
Only the fallout will be worse.
Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
I therefore fail to understand why you want to be there when that happens.
In my son and partners case it is the threat of higher mortgage rates in the short to medium term that is important to them but none of us have made a definitive decision on our vote
If any increase of interest rates from 0.5% is causing them such panic then they need to get their personal finances in better shape.
One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day
Yes.
And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.
Only the fallout will be worse.
Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
I therefore fail to understand why you want to be there when that happens.
In my son and partners case it is the threat of higher mortgage rates in the short to medium term that is important to them but none of us have made a definitive decision on our vote
If any increase of interest rates from 0.5% is causing them such panic then they need to get their personal finances in better shape.
It is the prospect of higher interest rates that will concern many families and no a small increase would not be a problem but no one knows how high interest rates would rise if there is a run on the pound
Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.
.
Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).
If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.
If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.
Depends whether the electorate find Remain's economic fears more credible than Leavers promises of a land of milk and honey
Andrew Neil said that one country that rejected the EC in a referendum (Norway i think) did so in a campaign where those pro the EC spent most of the campaign in a project fear mode which by the end of the lengthy campaign was being openly mocked for all the doom mongering.
We are in the middle of a very long campaign and we have the leading figure of that campaign watching his image plummet particularly with the non-tory voters.
The Remain parties won't be relying on Cameron to get their votes out. Cameron's importance is in getting the Remain vote as high as possible amongst Tory voters. and he has every chance of doing that. 50/50 of Tories should be enough.
He has some work to do then - it's 40/60.
Do you make up these figures as you go along . Last Yougov poll had Con voters 48/52 Remain/Leave
The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.
They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.
Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up to explain to us why the poll has been wrongly interpreted. It's like ground-hog day. LOL
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up and started hand waving. We get it Dave is wonderful, the deal was fantastic, the Remain platform is right on the money, Boris completely screwed it up, the Leavers are a bunch of idiots with no idea how to run a campaign, I'll even give you Gove, Galloway and Farage.... Okay having granted you all that, can you please tell us why the polls are 50/50, and getting worse for Remain, I am sure we would all be fascinated to hear.
Only internet polls are showing it 50/50 and there is considerable concerns about there inaccuracy. But for argument's sake lets say they are 50/50/ The lesson many learned from GE 2015 was that underlying factors like trust in Cameron v Miliband proved a more reliable predictor of the outcome than the viols.
I also don't think the campaign has even started yet, all the Remain parties won't get going till after May. I won't door knocking till the last week of May. It is also my belief that there will be a significant swing to Remain in the last weeks of the campaign. People may flirt with the idea now but once the risks become apparent many will waver. If the best Leave can offer is 50/50 in a few internet polls at this stage then I think their chances of winning are slim.
Desperately complacent IMHO. But I hope you are right.
I'm not complacent which is why I will be out door-knocking. I really think people are trying to jump to conclusions far too early in the campaign. For example, I fully expect the unions to campaign hard to get their members and their families out to vote but they have barely begun yet. I will start taking real note of the polls in June.
I notice the Guardian seem to have gone very quiet on Panama Papers....was that all they got out of 2.6TB of data? What has been revealed so far is nothing we didn't already know i.e. Putin has very close "friends" who have incredible wealth despite jobs that couldn't pay that well and that Cameron Snr ran an offshore fund...both of these were already well known.
Seems to have been a bit of a disappointment for them, newspapers in other countries have been having rather more fun.
The Guardian own tax affairs are far more interesting than most of the "scandals" they revealed. A years worth of work to expose nothing of real interest. Perhaps all the tax dodgers use a different law firm?
One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day
Yes.
And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.
Only the fallout will be worse.
Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
I therefore fail to understand why you want to be there when that happens.
In my son and partners case it is the threat of higher mortgage rates in the short to medium term that is important to them but none of us have made a definitive decision on our vote
If any increase of interest rates from 0.5% is causing them such panic then they need to get their personal finances in better shape.
It is the prospect of higher interest rates that will concern many families and no a small increase would not be a problem but no one knows how high interest rates would rise if there is a run on the pound
The pound dropped 30% at the end of Mr Brown's tenure and interest rates stayed nailed to the floor.
It is the prospect of higher interest rates that will concern many families and no a small increase would not be a problem but no one knows how high interest rates would rise if there is a run on the pound
Whatever happens in the referendum I think we're heading for trouble and I have little sympathy for those with big mortgages. If we vote to stay in at least people won't be able to blame it on Leave.
One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day
Yes.
And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.
Only the fallout will be worse.
Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
I therefore fail to understand why you want to be there when that happens.
In my son and partners case it is the threat of higher mortgage rates in the short to medium term that is important to them but none of us have made a definitive decision on our vote
If any increase of interest rates from 0.5% is causing them such panic then they need to get their personal finances in better shape.
It is the prospect of higher interest rates that will concern many families and no a small increase would not be a problem but no one knows how high interest rates would rise if there is a run on the pound
Higher interest rates and lower exchange rates are coming in any case.
Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.
.
Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).
If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.
If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.
Depends whether the electorate find Remain's economic fears more credible than Leavers promises of a land of milk and honey
Andrew Neil said that one country that rejected the EC in a referendum (Norway i think) did so in a campaign where those pro the EC spent most of the campaign in a project fear mode which by the end of the lengthy campaign was being openly mocked for all the doom mongering.
We are in the middle of a very long campaign and we have the leading figure of that campaign watching his image plummet particularly with the non-tory voters.
The Remain parties won't be relying on Cameron to get their votes out. Cameron's importance is in getting the Remain vote as high as possible amongst Tory voters. and he has every chance of doing that. 50/50 of Tories should be enough.
He has some work to do then - it's 40/60.
Do you make up these figures as you go along . Last Yougov poll had Con voters 48/52 Remain/Leave
Precisely, just beat me to it but no doubt Chestnut has reinterpreted the poll and it's really 60/40!
Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.
I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.
But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah
And the polls are 50/50.
Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).
If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.
If Egg and Chips hasn't appealed to the voters so far, why would Double Egg and Chips appeal in the future?
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.
The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".
Just signed up to join Momentum - among other things, you have to commit to supporting the party and to a code of ethics, which is partly the no-abuse, positive approach espoused by Jeremy but also a set of leftish principles:
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.
The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".
Just signed up to join Momentum - among other things, you have to commit to supporting the party and to a code of ethics, which is partly the no-abuse, positive approach espoused by Jeremy but also a set of leftish principles:
But is it correct? I thought the advantage of quantum computing was the ability to perform specific types of calculation much faster, rather than being able to store more information in a smaller computer (as he put it).
One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day
Yes.
And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.
Only the fallout will be worse.
Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
I therefore fail to understand why you want to be there when that happens.
In my son and partners case it is the threat of higher mortgage rates in the short to medium term that is important to them but none of us have made a definitive decision on our vote
If any increase of interest rates from 0.5% is causing them such panic then they need to get their personal finances in better shape.
It is the prospect of higher interest rates that will concern many families and no a small increase would not be a problem but no one knows how high interest rates would rise if there is a run on the pound
Higher interest rates and lower exchange rates are coming in any case.
Though probably not at the same time.
BEXIT probably means lower rates in the immediate aftermath. There is nothing the Authorities can do to arrest currency trends. The ERM debacle demonstrates that perfectly well. All the Authorities can do is to signal that they will use monetary policy to soften the negative impact on the economy. They will not try to prop up sterling.
One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day
Yes.
And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.
Only the fallout will be worse.
Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
I therefore fail to understand why you want to be there when that happens.
In my son and partners case it is the threat of higher mortgage rates in the short to medium term that is important to them but none of us have made a definitive decision on our vote
If any increase of interest rates from 0.5% is causing them such panic then they need to get their personal finances in better shape.
It is the prospect of higher interest rates that will concern many families and no a small increase would not be a problem but no one knows how high interest rates would rise if there is a run on the pound
Oh stop parroting this rubbish. You don't remotely understand it.
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.
The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".
Just signed up to join Momentum - among other things, you have to commit to supporting the party and to a code of ethics, which is partly the no-abuse, positive approach espoused by Jeremy but also a set of leftish principles:
One of my sons came round at lunchtime with his children and while 'Grandma' looked after the children we spoke about the referendum. He hates the undemocratic way of EU with a passion (as I do) and we both agreed that we should vote leave on that basis but the prospect of a run on the pound and higher interest and mortgage rates has cut through to him and he said his partner and his decision will be based entirely on economic risk. We both agreed that there will be a tsunami of 'project fear' from many different sources in the coming months and leave need to be prepared to lay out a credible alternative, failing which we both concluded that on the balance of probabilities remain will win the day
Yes.
And then in 2022 or so we will leave anyway.
Only the fallout will be worse.
Do you agree with our conclusion. My son and I both are of the opinion the EU is doomed as a project and there are many ways it will implode over the coming years even by 2022.
I therefore fail to understand why you want to be there when that happens.
In my son and partners case it is the threat of higher mortgage rates in the short to medium term that is important to them but none of us have made a definitive decision on our vote
If any increase of interest rates from 0.5% is causing them such panic then they need to get their personal finances in better shape.
It is the prospect of higher interest rates that will concern many families and no a small increase would not be a problem but no one knows how high interest rates would rise if there is a run on the pound
The pound dropped 30% at the end of Mr Brown's tenure and interest rates stayed nailed to the floor.
Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.
I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.
But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah
And the polls are 50/50.
Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).
If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.
If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.
Depends whether the electorate find Remain's economic fears more credible than Leavers promises of a land of milk and honey
Andrew Neil said that one country that rejected the EC in a referendum (Norway i think) did so in a campaign where those pro the EC spent most of the campaign in a project fear mode which by the end of the lengthy campaign was being openly mocked for all the doom mongering.
We are in the middle of a very long campaign and we have the leading figure of that campaign watching his image plummet particularly with the non-tory voters.
The Remain parties won't be relying on Cameron to get their votes out. Cameron's importance is in getting the Remain vote as high as possible amongst Tory voters. and he has every chance of doing that. 50/50 of Tories should be enough.
Have you modeled this? I have some rough numbers and even at 53% LEAVE for the Conservatives, LEAVE wins if the turnout over is under 60%.
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square. The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time". http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36063743
See 'Cameron must Go' actually seems to be the main message. Has this been organized by Boris? :-)
If Labour party people keep pushing that message then Labour supporters may conclude the best way to achieve that is to vote LEAVE or stay at home.
I can't believe the media are buying this...it is so obviously a prepared question / answer. The answer is far too concise and on point and all neatly wrapped up into a 20s soundbite. Nobody when normally asked a question can instantly formulate such a succinct response to a complex subject.
The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.
They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.
Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up to explain to us why the poll has been wrongly interpreted. It's like ground-hog day. LOL
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up and started hand waving. We get it Dave is wonderful, the deal was fantastic, the Remain platform is right on the money, Boris completely screwed it up, the Leavers are a bunch of idiots with no idea how to run a campaign, I'll even give you Gove, Galloway and Farage.... Okay having granted you all that, can you please tell us why the polls are 50/50, and getting worse for Remain, I am sure we would all be fascinated to hear.
Only internet polls are showing it 50/50 and there is considerable concerns about there inaccuracy. But for argument's sake lets say they are 50/50/ The lesson many learned from GE 2015 was that underlying factors like trust in Cameron v Miliband proved a more reliable predictor of the outcome than the viols.
I also don't think the campaign has even started yet, all the Remain parties won't get going till after May. I won't door knocking till the last week of May. It is also my belief that there will be a significant swing to Remain in the last weeks of the campaign. People may flirt with the idea now but once the risks become apparent many will waver. If the best Leave can offer is 50/50 in a few internet polls at this stage then I think their chances of winning are slim.
Desperately complacent IMHO. But I hope you are right.
Supporters of Remain have persuaded themselves that Internet polls don't count.
Discounting data that gives you the answer you don't want to hear rarely work well.
The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.
They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.
Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up to explain to us why the poll has been wrongly interpreted. It's like ground-hog day. LOL
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up and started hand waving. We get it Dave is wonderful, the deal was fantastic, the Remain platform is right on the money, Boris completely screwed it up, the Leavers are a bunch of idiots with no idea how to run a campaign, I'll even give you Gove, Galloway and Farage.... Okay having granted you all that, can you please tell us why the polls are 50/50, and getting worse for Remain, I am sure we would all be fascinated to hear.
Only internet polls are showing it 50/50 and there is considerable concerns about there inaccuracy. But for argument's sake lets say they are 50/50/ The lesson many learned from GE 2015 was that underlying factors like trust in Cameron v Miliband proved a more reliable predictor of the outcome than the viols.
I also don't think the campaign has even started yet, all the Remain parties won't get going till after May. I won't door knocking till the last week of May. It is also my belief that there will be a significant swing to Remain in the last weeks of the campaign. People may flirt with the idea now but once the risks become apparent many will waver. If the best Leave can offer is 50/50 in a few internet polls at this stage then I think their chances of winning are slim.
Desperately complacent IMHO. But I hope you are right.
Supporters of Remain have persuaded themselves that Internet polls don't count.
Discounting data that gives you the answer you don't want to hear rarely work well.
What is your view of the reason for the internet/phone divergence? Personally I wonder if it is the 'shy' effect. Let's face it, if you are a LEAVER you a a bit of a trouble maker, an enfant terrible!! Who would want to admit to that?
We will thus be able to put a monetary value to the description 'near perfect'.
I'll be long dead before that is repaid.
Predictions of borrowing are by the OBR are they not? You would love a Labour government?
Hm? I was just making the point that we have so much debt that i'll be long dead before this particular part is repaid. Didn't we recently repay some bonds from the Napoleonic era, for instance?
... I will start taking real note of the polls in June.
Why? We know from 2015 that the Polls are not to be trusted or believed.
Polls were certainly well off in GE but generally have been pretty useful. I expect they will be more accurately reflecting a binary choice than a GE with all the complicating factors of last May.
My point was that regardless of accuracy the polls aren't telling us much about the eventual outcome this far out.
I notice the Guardian seem to have gone very quiet on Panama Papers....was that all they got out of 2.6TB of data? What has been revealed so far is nothing we didn't already know i.e. Putin has very close "friends" who have incredible wealth despite jobs that couldn't pay that well and that Cameron Snr ran an offshore fund...both of these were already well known.
The Guardian doesn't like being reminded of its own off shore activities.
What is your view of the reason for the internet/phone divergence? Personally I wonder if it is the 'shy' effect. Let's face it, if you are a LEAVER you a a bit of a trouble maker, an enfant terrible!! Who would want to admit to that?
Could be anything. Older people less likely to answer the phone to people they don't know. Young people more likely to be at work in the day. DE type people more likely to be unemployed so at home. AB people more likely to work a longer day. Shy leavers as you say, virtual signalling remainers. Plus the overall problem that taking an unbalanced sample and applying adjustments to it on the basis of past vote weighting, social group or whatever does not, a balanced sample, make!
The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.
They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.
Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up to explain to us why the poll has been wrongly interpreted. It's like ground-hog day. LOL
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up and started hand waving. We get it Dave is wonderful, the deal was fantastic, the Remain platform is right on the money, Boris completely screwed it up, the Leavers are a bunch of idiots with no idea how to run a campaign, I'll even give you Gove, Galloway and Farage.... Okay having granted you all that, can you please tell us why the polls are 50/50, and getting worse for Remain, I am sure we would all be fascinated to hear.
Only internet polls are showing it 50/50 and there is considerable concerns about there inaccuracy. But for argument's sake lets say they are 50/50/ The lesson many learned from GE 2015 was that underlying factors like trust in Cameron v Miliband proved a more reliable predictor of the outcome than the viols.
I also don't think the campaign has even started yet, all the Remain parties won't get going till after May. I won't door knocking till the last week of May. It is also my belief that there will be a significant swing to Remain in the last weeks of the campaign. People may flirt with the idea now but once the risks become apparent many will waver. If the best Leave can offer is 50/50 in a few internet polls at this stage then I think their chances of winning are slim.
Desperately complacent IMHO. But I hope you are right.
Supporters of Remain have persuaded themselves that Internet polls don't count.
Discounting data that gives you the answer you don't want to hear rarely work well.
What is your view of the reason for the internet/phone divergence? Personally I wonder if it is the 'shy' effect. Let's face it, if you are a LEAVER you a a bit of a trouble maker, an enfant terrible!! Who would want to admit to that?
Matt Singh and Populus did some work on this recently why the phone polls might be more accurate.
... I will start taking real note of the polls in June.
Why? We know from 2015 that the Polls are not to be trusted or believed.
Polls were certainly well off in GE but generally have been pretty useful. I expect they will be more accurately reflecting a binary choice than a GE with all the complicating factors of last May.
My point was that regardless of accuracy the polls aren't telling us much about the eventual outcome this far out.
It makes sense when you consider that the average moderate person is a Conservative voter now. Bad news for the PB Gove fan club, who have resorted to hoping that everyone forgets his record the minute he becomes PM (won't happen!).
ain's economic fears more credible than Leavers promises of a land of milk and honey
Have you modeled this? I have some rough numbers and even at 53% LEAVE for the Conservatives, LEAVE wins if the turnout over is under 60%.
I don't think the turnout will be sub 60%.
I find it ironic that the camp that is forever moaning about the supposed democratic deficit in the EU are desperately hoping for a low turnout so the OAPs can push them over the line. They are correct, of course, bere is something pretty unedifying about people wanting to win a referendum on the country's future by hoping the younger generations don't vote.
By the way I am not aiming that criticism at you personally but at Leavers in general.
It makes sense when you consider that the average moderate person is a Conservative voter now. Bad news for the PB Gove fan club, who have resorted to hoping that everyone forgets his record the minute he becomes PM (won't happen!).
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square. The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time". http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36063743
See 'Cameron must Go' actually seems to be the main message. Has this been organized by Boris? :-)
If Labour party people keep pushing that message then Labour supporters may conclude the best way to achieve that is to vote LEAVE or stay at home.
Not sure most of these marchers are Labour looking at the banners - lot of SWP etc
I notice the Guardian seem to have gone very quiet on Panama Papers....was that all they got out of 2.6TB of data? What has been revealed so far is nothing we didn't already know i.e. Putin has very close "friends" who have incredible wealth despite jobs that couldn't pay that well and that Cameron Snr ran an offshore fund...both of these were already well known.
The Guardian doesn't like being reminded of its own off shore activities.
I believe they have had these documents for a year. Obviously, they found what they were looking for and that was something re the "Cameron family." So as far as they are concerned, it's job done.
If we didn't have such a lazy media, then somebody should be following this up on why there has been no more info.
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.
The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".
Just signed up to join Momentum - among other things, you have to commit to supporting the party and to a code of ethics, which is partly the no-abuse, positive approach espoused by Jeremy but also a set of leftish principles:
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square. The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time". http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36063743
See 'Cameron must Go' actually seems to be the main message. Has this been organized by Boris? :-)
If Labour party people keep pushing that message then Labour supporters may conclude the best way to achieve that is to vote LEAVE or stay at home.
Not sure most of these marchers are Labour looking at the banners - lot of SWP etc
With jezza, mcmao etc in charge hard to tell the difference between the two...
I notice the Guardian seem to have gone very quiet on Panama Papers....was that all they got out of 2.6TB of data? What has been revealed so far is nothing we didn't already know i.e. Putin has very close "friends" who have incredible wealth despite jobs that couldn't pay that well and that Cameron Snr ran an offshore fund...both of these were already well known.
The Guardian doesn't like being reminded of its own off shore activities.
I believe they have had these documents for a year. Obviously, they found what they were looking for and that was something re the "Cameron family." So as far as they are concerned, it's job done.
If we didn't have such a lazy media, then somebody should be following this up on why there has been no more info.
They didn't find anything new about Ian Cameron from panama papers, they just reprinted the 2012 story.
The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.
They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.
Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up to explain to us why the poll has been wrongly interpreted. It's like ground-hog day. LOL
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up and started hand waving. We get it Dave is wonderful, the deal was fantastic, the Remain platform is right on the money, Boris completely screwed it up, the Leavers are a bunch of idiots with no idea how to run a campaign, I'll even give you Gove, Galloway and Farage.... Okay having granted you all that, can you please tell us why the polls are 50/50, and getting worse for Remain, I am sure we would all be fascinated to hear.
Only internet polls are showing it 50/50 and there is considerable concerns about there inaccuracy. But for argument's sake lets say they are 50/50/ The lesson many learned from GE 2015 was that underlying factors like trust in Cameron v Miliband proved a more reliable
Desperately complacent IMHO. But I hope you are right.
Supporters of Remain have persuaded themselves that Internet polls don't count.
Discounting data that gives you the answer you don't want to hear rarely work well.
What is your view of the reason for the internet/phone divergence? Personally I wonder if it is the 'shy' effect. Let's face it, if you are a LEAVER you a a bit of a trouble maker, an enfant terrible!! Who would want to admit to that?
My experience of Leavers is not that they are shy about expressing their opinions either online or on the phone.
Polling for referendums is much harder to get reliable samples, and then reliably weighting them. In particular there is no past voting to weight for and we do not know what the turnout would be or even who it would favour (social class vs age - and indeed the interplay of these).
I would not put much faith in the polls for this referendum. I suspect that the value in the Brexit referendum lies at both ends of the spectrum.
So for example on Betfair the 12 on Remain less than 45 looks like value to me
I notice the Guardian seem to have gone very quiet on Panama Papers....was that all they got out of 2.6TB of data? What has been revealed so far is nothing we didn't already know i.e. Putin has very close "friends" who have incredible wealth despite jobs that couldn't pay that well and that Cameron Snr ran an offshore fund...both of these were already well known.
The Guardian doesn't like being reminded of its own off shore activities.
I believe they have had these documents for a year. Obviously, they found what they were looking for and that was something re the "Cameron family." So as far as they are concerned, it's job done.
If we didn't have such a lazy media, then somebody should be following this up on why there has been no more info.
You can imagine, some journo logged into that website they had for the data, typed in "cameron" his eyes sparkled as he spotted a story but it was nothing he didn't already know, typed in "corbyn", nothing, "may", nothing there either, "osborne", nope, he patience is starting to fade, "hammond" he tries in desperation, no cigar, "sod this, I'm off to the pub, this data is useless"
"It is said ... that the Lynton Crosby analysis of the referendum is that the outers have to totally undermine Cameron’s reputation if they are to have a chance." David Cameron’s reputation is mostly in his own hands. It is he who has done most to undermine it so far.
Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.
I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.
Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.
The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.
The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".
Just signed up to join Momentum - among other things, you have to commit to supporting the party and to a code of ethics, which is partly the no-abuse, positive approach espoused by Jeremy but also a set of leftish principles:
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.
The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".
Just signed up to join Momentum - among other things, you have to commit to supporting the party and to a code of ethics, which is partly the no-abuse, positive approach espoused by Jeremy but also a set of leftish principles:
Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.
I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.
Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.
The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.
If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.
I still think we should leave but I can't help feeling that the Venn diagram between those who confidently predicted the collapse of the Euro and those predicting a collapse of the EU must be almost 100%. They were wrong last time and will be wrong this. The EU is going nowhere. Indeed it will continue to integrate and continue to be one of the wealthiest parts of the world.
In fact I think that a Brexit will only accelerate that process because we have been a hindrance rather than a help in the process. They will also collectively remain our largest customers and suppliers. We need a positive relationship with them and treating them or believing them to be deluded fools on the path to ruin is not the right path.
There is an interesting missive on Norway on the CIB website which is very relevant for the scaremongering campaign we are getting in the UK:
In the run-up to the 1972 referendum, the pro-EEC side claimed:
* Norway would not be able to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU (it did, very quickly after the NO vote) * CEOs of exporting firms sent personal letters to their workforces claiming their industries would have no future outside the EEC (sound familiar?)
Ahead of the 1994 vote:
* Norsk Hydro's boss claimed thousands of jobs would be lost and billions invested elsewhere if the vote was 'NO' (sound familiar?) * The YES side claimed in the event of 'NO' the currency would slump, interest rates would rise, exports would drop, unemployment would rise * The YES side claimed Norway's EEA deal was 'worthless' or would cease to operate
* The Norwegian PM claimed 'Around the country there are many who have investment plans ready if there is a yes vote. But I have not heard of a single company that has new investment plans ready if there were to be a ‘no’'
Needless to say, all this shroud waving was proven to be nonsense.
Norway's GDP grew around 5% p.a from 1994-97 and exports were very buoyant
Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.
I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.
Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.
The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.
Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum
1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories
2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight
It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.
The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".
Just signed up to join Momentum - among other things, you have to commit to supporting the party and to a code of ethics, which is partly the no-abuse, positive approach espoused by Jeremy but also a set of leftish principles:
I still think we should leave but I can't help feeling that the Venn diagram between those who confidently predicted the collapse of the Euro and those predicting a collapse of the EU must be almost 100%. They were wrong last time and will be wrong this. The EU is going nowhere. Indeed it will continue to integrate and continue to be one of the wealthiest parts of the world.
In fact I think that a Brexit will only accelerate that process because we have been a hindrance rather than a help in the process. They will also collectively remain our largest customers and suppliers. We need a positive relationship with them and treating them or believing them to be deluded fools on the path to ruin is not the right path.
Yes, which is why Vote Leave say this: "We will build a new European institutional architecture that enables all countries, whether in or out of the EU or euro, to trade freely and cooperate in a friendly way."
I still think we should leave but I can't help feeling that the Venn diagram between those who confidently predicted the collapse of the Euro and those predicting a collapse of the EU must be almost 100%. They were wrong last time and will be wrong this. The EU is going nowhere. Indeed it will continue to integrate and continue to be one of the wealthiest parts of the world.
In fact I think that a Brexit will only accelerate that process because we have been a hindrance rather than a help in the process. They will also collectively remain our largest customers and suppliers. We need a positive relationship with them and treating them or believing them to be deluded fools on the path to ruin is not the right path.
But just like the Euro it must choose between massively increased integration which the UK does not seem to have the stomach for or lurching from one crisis to the next. That is no basis for sustained growth and economic and political stability.
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.
The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".
Just signed up to join Momentum - among other things, you have to commit to supporting the party and to a code of ethics, which is partly the no-abuse, positive approach espoused by Jeremy but also a set of leftish principles:
Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.
I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.
Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.
The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.
Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum
1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories
2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight
It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
This is a mistake like Scottish Labour co-platforming with the Tories in the indyref.
We know how it ended for them.
Cameron could have manned the phones in the same room in a different row, but not been photographed next to them.
I suspect you and your Remain friends will shortly realise this.
I still think we should leave but I can't help feeling that the Venn diagram between those who confidently predicted the collapse of the Euro and those predicting a collapse of the EU must be almost 100%. They were wrong last time and will be wrong this. The EU is going nowhere. Indeed it will continue to integrate and continue to be one of the wealthiest parts of the world.
In fact I think that a Brexit will only accelerate that process because we have been a hindrance rather than a help in the process. They will also collectively remain our largest customers and suppliers. We need a positive relationship with them and treating them or believing them to be deluded fools on the path to ruin is not the right path.
But just like the Euro it must choose between massively increased integration which the UK does not seem to have the stomach for or lurching from one crisis to the next. That is no basis for sustained growth and economic and political stability.
I agree further integration is inevitable and necessary. And I agree we don't want any part of it. I genuinely think both we and they will do better if we leave and get out of the road. And we will gain from each other's success.
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.
The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".
Just signed up to join Momentum - among other things, you have to commit to supporting the party and to a code of ethics, which is partly the no-abuse, positive approach espoused by Jeremy but also a set of leftish principles:
I still think we should leave but I can't help feeling that the Venn diagram between those who confidently predicted the collapse of the Euro and those predicting a collapse of the EU must be almost 100%. They were wrong last time and will be wrong this. The EU is going nowhere. Indeed it will continue to integrate and continue to be one of the wealthiest parts of the world.
In fact I think that a Brexit will only accelerate that process because we have been a hindrance rather than a help in the process. They will also collectively remain our largest customers and suppliers. We need a positive relationship with them and treating them or believing them to be deluded fools on the path to ruin is not the right path.
But just like the Euro it must choose between massively increased integration which the UK does not seem to have the stomach for or lurching from one crisis to the next. That is no basis for sustained growth and economic and political stability.
I agree further integration is inevitable and necessary. And I agree we don't want any part of it. I genuinely think both we and they will do better if we leave and get out of the road. And we will gain from each other's success.
Hear, hear.
Are you campaigning at all in Scotland, David? Or is that somewhat "brave" in Dundee?
In fact I think that a Brexit will only accelerate that process because we have been a hindrance rather than a help in the process. They will also collectively remain our largest customers and suppliers. We need a positive relationship with them and treating them or believing them to be deluded fools on the path to ruin is not the right path.
All of this is true. But we are going in different directions, and our traditional of law and government are not compatible. More critically, we are not going to be entering the Euro within the next couple of decades, no amount of Project Fear nonsense will sell that to the population, so we are away going to be on the outside looking in.
Leaving at some point in the next decade is inevitable for those reasons, and yet a lot of people appear hell bent of waiting for a messy forced divorce in 5-6 years time when we reach an impasse, when a new law or requirement is needed by the federalising eurozone which is anathema to us, rather than negotiate a clean agreeable settlement now.
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.
The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".
Just signed up to join Momentum - among other things, you have to commit to supporting the party and to a code of ethics, which is partly the no-abuse, positive approach espoused by Jeremy but also a set of leftish principles:
Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.
I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.
Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.
The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.
Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum
1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories
2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight
It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
This is a mistake like Scottish Labour co-platforming with the Tories in the indyref.
We know how it ended for them.
Cameron could have manned the phones in the same room in a different row, but not been photographed next to them.
I suspect you and your Remain friends will shortly realise this.
It might have turned me against Cameron for good.
Not really, he's just following the lead of Margaret Thatcher, and even if wasn't the case, he's standing down by 2020, that'll draw the poison if there is any.
Thousands of people are taking part in a protest in central London against government cuts. Banners calling for Prime Minister David Cameron to quit were brandished by protesters as they marched to Trafalgar Square.
The demonstration, organised by the People's Assembly, was also attended by shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
Labour's Diane Abbott told the crowd that fighting austerity was the "political struggle of our time".
Just signed up to join Momentum - among other things, you have to commit to supporting the party and to a code of ethics, which is partly the no-abuse, positive approach espoused by Jeremy but also a set of leftish principles:
I still think we should leave but I can't help feeling that the Venn diagram between those who confidently predicted the collapse of the Euro and those predicting a collapse of the EU must be almost 100%. They were wrong last time and will be wrong this. The EU is going nowhere. Indeed it will continue to integrate and continue to be one of the wealthiest parts of the world.
In fact I think that a Brexit will only accelerate that process because we have been a hindrance rather than a help in the process. They will also collectively remain our largest customers and suppliers. We need a positive relationship with them and treating them or believing them to be deluded fools on the path to ruin is not the right path.
But just like the Euro it must choose between massively increased integration which the UK does not seem to have the stomach for or lurching from one crisis to the next. That is no basis for sustained growth and economic and political stability.
I agree further integration is inevitable and necessary. And I agree we don't want any part of it. I genuinely think both we and they will do better if we leave and get out of the road. And we will gain from each other's success.
Hear, hear.
Are you campaigning at all in Scotland, David? Or is that somewhat "brave" in Dundee?
I am doing a little bit for the Scottish elections, nothing for the EU. And campaigning for No in Dundee was "brave" and didn't bother me at all.
The truth is that I don't care that much about the EU. I think for the reasons you, Indigo, Richard and others set out I will vote Leave but compared with Sindy it really doesn't rock my boat.
Part of this is the concern about the damage being done to Cameron and Osborne but more fundamentally I don't believe it will that much of a difference. I suspect we will at some point go our different ways and I want that to be in a constructive way. I think it would be better for both sides if that was now but it will come.
Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.
I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.
Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.
The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.
Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum
1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories
2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight
It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
This is a mistake like Scottish Labour co-platforming with the Tories in the indyref.
We know how it ended for them.
Cameron could have manned the phones in the same room in a different row, but not been photographed next to them.
I suspect you and your Remain friends will shortly realise this.
It might have turned me against Cameron for good.
Not really, he's just following the lead of Margaret Thatcher, and even if wasn't the case, he's standing down by 2020, that'll draw the poison if there is any.
Err, yes really. Remainers spend too much time talking to Remainers and are starting to lose their grip on optics and perceptions.
And what does Margaret Thatcher c.1975 have to do with it?
It'd be more relevant to cite the 1999 Heseltine/Blair/Clarke/Kennedy pro-euro photo - and how that damaged Clarke, and that whole faction of the party, subsequently.
I think Cameron is acting as a "human shield" for Remain inside the Tories, which is why I said he might have decided to sacrifice himself for the cause, possibly - although futilely - for Osborne, and you seem to agree by your 'drawing poison' comment, but I think you're very optimistic: he's doing a lot of damage to the Tory party and brand in the process.
Anyway, I must dash. Off to the cricket club for a pint or two with my wife.
Odd I keep on getting told Dave has ruined his reputation with Tories.
I suspect he's damaged his reputation with Tory members and activists. Tory voters are less aware, and much more forgiving anyhow.
But I don't buy Lynton Crosby's analysis anyway. It's glib and simplistic. There are various ways LEAVE can win, it doesn't all depend on Cameron. If Cameron was so important, REMAIN would be 20 points ahead, as, essentially, all we have seen so far is Cameron selling the deal, then Cameron warning us of the dangers of Brexit, then Cameron wandering around factories in Swindon talking about trade with Bulgaria, blah blah
And the polls are 50/50.
Cameron is not doing the business he expected. He may not be a hindrance, but neither is he the crucial player that REMAIN anticipated.
Remain does have a decent lead with the phone polls (though not as large in the past).
If we had as many phone polls as online polls the polls wouldn't be showing 50/50 but more like 55/45 in favour of Remain.
The trend might be critical if we were 2 weeks out but not 2 months. The main Remain parties won't begin campaigning in earnest till after the May elections. I don't think "project Fear" from the other parties has barely got going yet.
If Project Fear gets going any more, it will just become Project Farce.
Depends whether the electorate find Remain's economic fears more credible than Leavers promises of a land of milk and honey
Andrew Neil said that one country tha
The Remain parties won't be relying on Cameron to get their votes out. Cameron's importance is in getting the Remain vote as high as possible
Have you modeled this? I have some rough numbers and even at 53% LEAVE for the Conservatives, LEAVE wins if the turnout over is under 60%.
Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.
I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.
Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.
The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.
Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum
1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories
2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight
It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.
I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.
Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.
The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.
If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.
It is precisely because of Cameron that you have won two elections. He draws the sting from the nasty Tories. No one else would have won the elections; maybe Clarke but then many Tories would not have voted for him.
Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.
I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.
Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.
The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.
Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum
1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories
2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight
It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
I still think we should leave but I can't help feeling that the Venn diagram between those who confidently predicted the collapse of the Euro and those predicting a collapse of the EU must be almost 100%. They were wrong last time and will be wrong this. The EU is going nowhere. Indeed it will continue to integrate and continue to be one of the wealthiest parts of the world.
In fact I think that a Brexit will only accelerate that process because we have been a hindrance rather than a help in the process. They will also collectively remain our largest customers and suppliers. We need a positive relationship with them and treating them or believing them to be deluded fools on the path to ruin is not the right path.
But just like the Euro it must choose between massively increased integration which the UK does not seem to have the stomach for or lurching from one crisis to the next. That is no basis for sustained growth and economic and political stability.
I agree further integration is inevitable and necessary. And I agree we don't want any part of it. I genuinely think both we and they will do better if we leave and get out of the road. And we will gain from each other's success.
Hear, hear.
Are you campaigning at all in Scotland, David? Or is that somewhat "brave" in Dundee?
I am doing a little bit for the Scottish elections, nothing for the EU. And campaigning for No in Dundee was "brave" and didn't bother me at all.
The truth is that I don't care that much about the EU. I think for the reasons you, Indigo, Richard and others set out I will vote Leave but compared with Sindy it really doesn't rock my boat.
Part of this is the concern about the damage being done to Cameron and Osborne but more fundamentally I don't believe it will that much of a difference. I suspect we will at some point go our different ways and I want that to be in a constructive way. I think it would be better for both sides if that was now but it will come.
The numbers are those currently expressing a Tory vote intention.
They are not the numbers of people who actually voted Tory in 2015, where Cameron has a minus one rating; identical to IDS and Boris.
Cameron's inflated current number is Lib Dem switchers. His numbers with 50+ voters are pretty abysmal, far worse than IDS and Boris. They are at 'terrorist sympathiser' levels.
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up to explain to us why the poll has been wrongly interpreted. It's like ground-hog day. LOL
I wondered how long it would be before you popped up and started hand waving. We get it Dave is wonderful, the deal was fantastic, the Remain platform is right on the money, Boris completely screwed it up, the Leavers are a bunch of idiots with no idea how to run a campaign, I'll even give you Gove, Galloway and Farage.... Okay having granted you all that, can you please tell us why the polls are 50/50, and getting worse for Remain, I am sure we would all be fascinated to hear.
Only internet polls are showing it 50/50 and there is considerable concerns about there inaccuracy. But for argument's sake lets say they are 50/50/ The lesson many learned from GE 2015 was that underlying factors like trust in Cameron v Miliband proved a more reliable predictor of the outcome than the viols.
I also don't think the campaign has even started yet, all the Remain parties won't get going till after May. I won't door knocking till the last week of May. It is also my belief that there will be a significant swing to Remain in the last weeks of the campaign. People may flirt with the idea now but once the risks become apparent many will waver. If the best Leave can offer is 50/50 in a few internet polls at this stage then I think their chances of winning are slim.
Desperately complacent IMHO. But I hope you are right.
Supporters of Remain have persuaded themselves that Internet polls don't count.
Discounting data that gives you the answer you don't want to hear rarely work well.
What is your view of the reason for the internet/phone divergence? Personally I wonder if it is the 'shy' effect. Let's face it, if you are a LEAVER you a a bit of a trouble maker, an enfant terrible!! Who would want to admit to that?
I don't find Matt Singh's hypothesis convincing (Anthony Wells disagrees with him). I don't think there's any reason, and in any case, telephone and Internet polls are converging on a narrow Remain lead.
Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.
I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.
Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.
The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.
Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum
1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories
2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight
It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.
I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.
Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.
The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.
Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum
1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories
2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight
It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
Nope
That seems to be the current strategy.
I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
Comments
I understand what you are saying but it has no traction outside of committed Leavers. Being in the EU is what people are used to, it is the status quo to them. Leaving is the step into the unknown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9oGEfHLiPM
Current vote intention does not equal Tory voters. The 2015 vote does.
Last ICM was 39/61, BMG was 40/60, YG was 38/62
Though probably not at the same time.
http://www.peoplesmomentum.com/ethics
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36061712
Titters...
Today he has made history saving 2 pens in one game & a clean sheet.
.... disappointing...
Discounting data that gives you the answer you don't want to hear rarely work well.
Interesting article on danny willetts 15th club for the masters..
http://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/apr/12/reluctant-jihadi-recruit-lost-faith-in-isis?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Long+reads+base&utm_term=167448&subid=6274295&CMP=ema-1133
Predictions of borrowing are by the OBR are they not? You would love a Labour government?
My point was that regardless of accuracy the polls aren't telling us much about the eventual outcome this far out.
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Polls-Apart-29-March-2016.pdf
Whilst ComRes did something just before Christmas
http://www.comres.co.uk/eu-referendum-all-still-to-play-for-by-not-neck-and-neck/
The polling on AV 2 months out in our last national referendum was not very accurate
It makes sense when you consider that the average moderate person is a Conservative voter now. Bad news for the PB Gove fan club, who have resorted to hoping that everyone forgets his record the minute he becomes PM (won't happen!).
I find it ironic that the camp that is forever moaning about the supposed democratic deficit in the EU are desperately hoping for a low turnout so the OAPs can push them over the line. They are correct, of course, bere is something pretty unedifying about people wanting to win a referendum on the country's future by hoping the younger generations don't vote.
By the way I am not aiming that criticism at you personally but at Leavers in general.
If we didn't have such a lazy media, then somebody should be following this up on why there has been no more info.
Polling for referendums is much harder to get reliable samples, and then reliably weighting them. In particular there is no past voting to weight for and we do not know what the turnout would be or even who it would favour (social class vs age - and indeed the interplay of these).
I would not put much faith in the polls for this referendum. I suspect that the value in the Brexit referendum lies at both ends of the spectrum.
So for example on Betfair the 12 on Remain less than 45 looks like value to me
Cameron did the same to Clegg to win his AV vote.
Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.
The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.
In fact I think that a Brexit will only accelerate that process because we have been a hindrance rather than a help in the process. They will also collectively remain our largest customers and suppliers. We need a positive relationship with them and treating them or believing them to be deluded fools on the path to ruin is not the right path.
In the run-up to the 1972 referendum, the pro-EEC side claimed:
* Norway would not be able to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU (it did, very quickly after the NO vote)
* CEOs of exporting firms sent personal letters to their workforces claiming their industries would have no future outside the EEC (sound familiar?)
Ahead of the 1994 vote:
* Norsk Hydro's boss claimed thousands of jobs would be lost and billions invested elsewhere if the vote was 'NO' (sound familiar?)
* The YES side claimed in the event of 'NO' the currency would slump, interest rates would rise, exports would drop, unemployment would rise
* The YES side claimed Norway's EEA deal was 'worthless' or would cease to operate
* The Norwegian PM claimed 'Around the country there are many who have investment plans ready if there is a yes vote. But I have not heard of a single company that has new investment plans ready if there were to be a ‘no’'
Needless to say, all this shroud waving was proven to be nonsense.
Norway's GDP grew around 5% p.a from 1994-97 and exports were very buoyant
http://campaignforanindependentbritain.org.uk/more-facts-from-norway/
Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum
1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories
2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight
It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
A large phalanx of SNP MPs sitting in Westminster prior to the finalisation of ind....
Oh, wait a minute.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/trade-society/news/dutch-voters-now-demanding-referendum-on-ttip/
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal
We know how it ended for them.
Cameron could have manned the phones in the same room in a different row, but not been photographed next to them.
I suspect you and your Remain friends will shortly realise this.
It might have turned me against Cameron for good.
But who cares what he thinks?
I'm staying with the Tories no matter what the outcome; they are the route to Brexit.
Are you campaigning at all in Scotland, David? Or is that somewhat "brave" in Dundee?
Leaving at some point in the next decade is inevitable for those reasons, and yet a lot of people appear hell bent of waiting for a messy forced divorce in 5-6 years time when we reach an impasse, when a new law or requirement is needed by the federalising eurozone which is anathema to us, rather than negotiate a clean agreeable settlement now.
The truth is that I don't care that much about the EU. I think for the reasons you, Indigo, Richard and others set out I will vote Leave but compared with Sindy it really doesn't rock my boat.
Part of this is the concern about the damage being done to Cameron and Osborne but more fundamentally I don't believe it will that much of a difference. I suspect we will at some point go our different ways and I want that to be in a constructive way. I think it would be better for both sides if that was now but it will come.
And what does Margaret Thatcher c.1975 have to do with it?
It'd be more relevant to cite the 1999 Heseltine/Blair/Clarke/Kennedy pro-euro photo - and how that damaged Clarke, and that whole faction of the party, subsequently.
I think Cameron is acting as a "human shield" for Remain inside the Tories, which is why I said he might have decided to sacrifice himself for the cause, possibly - although futilely - for Osborne, and you seem to agree by your 'drawing poison' comment, but I think you're very optimistic: he's doing a lot of damage to the Tory party and brand in the process.
Anyway, I must dash. Off to the cricket club for a pint or two with my wife.
Good evening.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k0c0qjfg6w/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1221005/PETER-OBORNE-Why-Euro-zealots-owe-huge-apology.html