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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON voters give Dave a net 24% lead over Boris on whose EU

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  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Isn't this the same as GE2015 except a 3% swing from the Tories to UKIP ?
    Yes, same trend as yougov, a clear swing from Tory to UKIP since the election but with Comres the Tories still ahead at the moment
    Didn't Comres make the biggest "adjustments" post GE2016 ?
    True but they were also the least inaccurate in their final polling and they at least had the Tories ahead
    http://www.comres.co.uk/comres-confirmed-as-most-accurate-2015-general-election-pollster/
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    How about trashing the Conservative party to get a Leave vote?
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    No, but it appears that leavers consider that an acceptable risk.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MP_SE said:

    That guy who leads the Lib Dems appears to be missing. His name eludes me at this moment in time...
    Jo Grimond.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Isn't this the same as GE2015 except a 3% swing from the Tories to UKIP ?
    Yes, same trend as yougov, a clear swing from Tory to UKIP since the election but with Comres the Tories still ahead at the moment
    I also think they are the same 3% who bolted from the kippers when it looked like there might be a minority Labour government shored up the SNP.
    Perhaps but they have their referendum now so no need to rush back to the Tories, especially if it is a narrow Remain
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967
    edited April 2016

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    Well we know if who the public would take with them on a lads holiday magaluf...
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Isn't this the same as GE2015 except a 3% swing from the Tories to UKIP ?
    Yes, same trend as yougov, a clear swing from Tory to UKIP since the election but with Comres the Tories still ahead at the moment
    Though interestingly the kippers have been doing very poorly in local elections.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    edited April 2016

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Isn't this the same as GE2015 except a 3% swing from the Tories to UKIP ?
    Yes, same trend as yougov, a clear swing from Tory to UKIP since the election but with Comres the Tories still ahead at the moment
    Though interestingly the kippers have been doing very poorly in local elections.
    We shall see in May but what Farage really wants is a narrow Remain, a big Remain or ironically a Leave vote will not be good for UKIP
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392

    Well we know if who the public would take with them on a lads holiday magaluf...
    Yes, but anything serious or financial and Cameron remains your man by a distance. His death is somewhat exaggerated.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I worry more about the 19% who would choose Jezza to manage their finances! It shows that not declaring income and filing late is really quite popular.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
    Except we're not. The ratings would be falling even if there was no referendum.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392
    surbiton said:

    MP_SE said:

    That guy who leads the Lib Dems appears to be missing. His name eludes me at this moment in time...
    Jo Grimond.
    No they moved on from him. Steel? Maybe Kennedy? Something like that.
  • Options

    I worry more about the 19% who would choose Jezza to manage their finances! It shows that not declaring income and filing late is really quite popular.
    Is probably sympathy from fellow late filers.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Isn't this the same as GE2015 except a 3% swing from the Tories to UKIP ?
    Yes, same trend as yougov, a clear swing from Tory to UKIP since the election but with Comres the Tories still ahead at the moment
    I also think they are the same 3% who bolted from the kippers when it looked like there might be a minority Labour government shored up the SNP.
    Yes, it's Right-Wing Virtue Signalling.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    The last ComRes poll (in Daily Mail) was 37/35.

    Is this poll same methodology or is one online and one phone?

    Either way, surprisingly good poll for Con given recent events.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    A good poll for Labour really. Comres Online have consistently produced the best results for the Tories since May 2015.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    DavidL said:

    surbiton said:

    MP_SE said:

    That guy who leads the Lib Dems appears to be missing. His name eludes me at this moment in time...
    Jo Grimond.
    No they moved on from him. Steel? Maybe Kennedy? Something like that.
    I remember now. Tim Fallon.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MikeL said:

    The last ComRes poll (in Daily Mail) was 37/35.

    Is this poll same methodology or is one online and one phone?

    Either way, surprisingly good poll for Con given recent events.

    But that was a phone poll - 5% is by some margin the smallest Tory lead from a Comres Online poll this Parliament.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    I lost the cigarette paper I was trying to insert between the views of Cameron and Clegg, it got jammed.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited April 2016
    As an aside, the bar graph shows an interesting mismatch between the love for Michael Gove here and the Conservative voter, never mind the wider world.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392
    MP_SE said:

    DavidL said:

    surbiton said:

    MP_SE said:

    That guy who leads the Lib Dems appears to be missing. His name eludes me at this moment in time...
    Jo Grimond.
    No they moved on from him. Steel? Maybe Kennedy? Something like that.
    I remember now. Tim Fallon.
    Jim Farron?
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Am I the only one struck by how little attention was given to everyone's tax returns once they were published?

    Big rumpus about Cameron - but then when Osborne, Corbyn, Johnson, Sturgeon published their tax returns there was very little comment. I know there was a bit about Corbyn's pensions - but only in a light hearted fashion. Nothing was really said about the substance of anyone's return (other than Cameron).

    I wonder if some people didn't really appreciate what info goes in a tax return? ie it's just a series of numbers (which add up) - it doesn't tell you the source of things like dividends.

    So one minute lots of talk re how everyone will have to publish - then very quickly everyone lost interest in the idea.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    The scariest number from those finding, 21% would trust Jahadi Jez's to negotiate with terrorists...
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    matt said:

    As an aside, the bar graph shows an interesting mismatch between the love for Michael Gove here and the Conservative voter, never mind the wider world.

    That graph is based off current voting intention, so you better just hope that the one's that don't like Cameron haven't already left :D
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    DavidL said:

    surbiton said:

    MP_SE said:

    That guy who leads the Lib Dems appears to be missing. His name eludes me at this moment in time...
    Jo Grimond.
    No they moved on from him. Steel? Maybe Kennedy? Something like that.
    I remember now. Tim Fallon.
    Jim Farron?
    Not Michael?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The fact that some believe a 5 point Con lead is a disappointment given the events of the last few weeks clearly indicates that JICIPM .... or not.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392

    The scariest number from those finding, 21% would trust Jahadi Jez's to negotiate with terrorists...

    Well they are his friends. Surely they could sort something out.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
    Except we're not. The ratings would be falling even if there was no referendum.
    I think you are. All the government's emphasis is on how weak and desperate the UK's economic position is, and thus how disastrous it would be to leave the EU.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    MikeL said:

    I wonder if some people didn't really appreciate what info goes in a tax return? ie it's just a series of numbers (which add up) - it doesn't tell you the source of things like dividends.

    Very likely, we had plenty of people on here saying that politicians should all publish their tax return so we can see if they avoiding tax in any off-shore accounts... it would be a little odd to declare on your tax returns items you intended to avoid paying the tax on I would have thought!

  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
    Except we're not. The ratings would be falling even if there was no referendum.
    I think you are. All the government's emphasis is on how weak and desperate the UK's economic position is, and thus how disastrous it would be to leave the EU.
    Most of you Leavers are predicting a short term hit to the economy were we to leave, don't be surprised if Remain keep on using that ammo.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,063

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    DavidL said:

    surbiton said:

    MP_SE said:

    That guy who leads the Lib Dems appears to be missing. His name eludes me at this moment in time...
    Jo Grimond.
    No they moved on from him. Steel? Maybe Kennedy? Something like that.
    I remember now. Tim Fallon.
    Jim Farron?
    Not Michael?
    Some of you are so funny you ought to be on an ITV talent show!
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The scariest number from those finding, 21% would trust Jahadi Jez's to negotiate with terrorists...

    Second place in that one! Perhaps Boris and Nigel are thought to be too likely to provoke the terrorists.

    13% want to go on holiday with Jezza. Its good to see motorcycle tours of Communist states are so popular.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
    Except we're not. The ratings would be falling even if there was no referendum.
    I think you are. All the government's emphasis is on how weak and desperate the UK's economic position is, and thus how disastrous it would be to leave the EU.
    The Gerald Ratner approach to PR.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Indigo said:

    MikeL said:

    I wonder if some people didn't really appreciate what info goes in a tax return? ie it's just a series of numbers (which add up) - it doesn't tell you the source of things like dividends.

    Very likely, we had plenty of people on here saying that politicians should all publish their tax return so we can see if they avoiding tax in any off-shore accounts... it would be a little odd to declare on your tax returns items you intended to avoid paying the tax on I would have thought!

    Yes. I also got the impression people might think that it would detail which companies you had investments in - ie where you were getting dividends from etc.

    But in fact it's just a list of numbers - it doesn't actually tell anyone anything other than how much income is being received from each type of source.

    I suspect the whole idea is now going to get forgotten very quickly.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392

    DavidL said:

    MP_SE said:

    DavidL said:

    surbiton said:

    MP_SE said:

    That guy who leads the Lib Dems appears to be missing. His name eludes me at this moment in time...
    Jo Grimond.
    No they moved on from him. Steel? Maybe Kennedy? Something like that.
    I remember now. Tim Fallon.
    Jim Farron?
    Not Michael?
    Some of you are so funny you ought to be on an ITV talent show!
    Ouch. That's pretty brutal. At least you didn't say BGT.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
    Except we're not. The ratings would be falling even if there was no referendum.
    I think you are. All the government's emphasis is on how weak and desperate the UK's economic position is, and thus how disastrous it would be to leave the EU.
    Most of you Leavers are predicting a short term hit to the economy were we to leave, don't be surprised if Remain keep on using that ammo.
    Better hope there isn't a Eurozone originating recession in the year or so after a remain vote then :)
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
    Except we're not. The ratings would be falling even if there was no referendum.
    I think you are. All the government's emphasis is on how weak and desperate the UK's economic position is, and thus how disastrous it would be to leave the EU.
    Most of you Leavers are predicting a short term hit to the economy were we to leave, don't be surprised if Remain keep on using that ammo.
    Let's just say that Remain (including Cameron) aren't very upbeat about the UK's future.

    And, that's not good for the government of the day.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
    Except we're not. The ratings would be falling even if there was no referendum.
    I think you are. All the government's emphasis is on how weak and desperate the UK's economic position is, and thus how disastrous it would be to leave the EU.
    Too wee, too poor, too stupid.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392
    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    I see the Pope is proving, yet again,what a total Prat he is..

    Even when the families abscond he won't take the message onboard.

    You might think that getting anally raped by a migrant would change someone's mind (not the Pope I hasten to say) - but even that didn't do the trick.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
    Except we're not. The ratings would be falling even if there was no referendum.
    I think you are. All the government's emphasis is on how weak and desperate the UK's economic position is, and thus how disastrous it would be to leave the EU.
    Most of you Leavers are predicting a short term hit to the economy were we to leave, don't be surprised if Remain keep on using that ammo.
    Let's just say that Remain (including Cameron) aren't very upbeat about the UK's future.

    And, that's not good for the government of the day.
    Managed decline has been the fashion in all parties basically since Thatcher went. It seems to be heretical to suggest they we could be good at something, on our own, perish the thought! Its curious that a lot of country less rich, less powerful, much less well connected than the UK seem to do rather well for themselves despite not being shackled to part of a custom union and incipient superstate.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,063
    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    I wouldn't wish to be a member of Lib or LibDem party led by Cameron. And before anyone says well.....
    I've been a member of both!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446


    Matt Singh and Populus did some work on this recently why the phone polls might be more accurate.

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Polls-Apart-29-March-2016.pdf

    Whilst ComRes did something just before Christmas

    http://www.comres.co.uk/eu-referendum-all-still-to-play-for-by-not-neck-and-neck/

    Can we ever trust the pollsters again after the debacle of GE2015?
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    I wouldn't wish to be a member of Lib or LibDem party led by Cameron. And before anyone says well.....
    I've been a member of both!

    I dare say Clegg was a bit off to the right for your taste as well, since he is almost a carbon copy of Cameron. Would I be right it thinking your sympathies are more in the Simon Hughes end of the party ?

  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,133
    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    What's your evidence that Cameron and Osborne are 'on the right in economic terms' ?

    Their economic strategy has been the same as that of the Blair government, namely welfare consumerism.

    The tactical difference is that they prefer to subsidise the consumerism of Conservative voting blocs while Labour subsidised Labour voting blocs.


  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715
    SeanT said:




    Matt Singh and Populus did some work on this recently why the phone polls might be more accurate.

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Polls-Apart-29-March-2016.pdf

    Whilst ComRes did something just before Christmas

    http://www.comres.co.uk/eu-referendum-all-still-to-play-for-by-not-neck-and-neck/

    Can we ever trust the pollsters again after the debacle of GE2015?
    This referendum is a huge test for them. If they screw up AGAIN....

    And it's also very very hard to poll. Entirely unprecedented vote. Don't envy them.

    But the company that gets it right will reap big rewards.
    I can imagine a tight result where the pollster coming closest on vote share actually calls it for the wrong winner.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    And the manner in which he did that seriously damaged the voluntary party, and significantly shrunk the membership, too.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:




    Matt Singh and Populus did some work on this recently why the phone polls might be more accurate.

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Polls-Apart-29-March-2016.pdf

    Whilst ComRes did something just before Christmas

    http://www.comres.co.uk/eu-referendum-all-still-to-play-for-by-not-neck-and-neck/

    Can we ever trust the pollsters again after the debacle of GE2015?
    This referendum is a huge test for them. If they screw up AGAIN....

    And it's also very very hard to poll. Entirely unprecedented vote. Don't envy them.

    But the company that gets it right will reap big rewards.
    They are all converging into groupthink again, so unlikely that there will be a specific pollster that gets it right. They will all be more or less right or entirely wrong.



  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    And the manner in which he did that seriously damaged the voluntary party, and significantly shrunk the membership, too.
    Polling shows he was on the right side of history though. Even UKIP are supportive now.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    I wouldn't wish to be a member of Lib or LibDem party led by Cameron. And before anyone says well.....
    I've been a member of both!
    He is a Conservative. A classic one nation, patriotic type conservative. He is not a tea partier or a Euro obsessive but he is a Conservative none the less. He wants the best for Britain and I have no doubt he genuinely believes that remaining inside the EU is the best for the UK. It upsets me to disagree with someone I have so much respect for. I will not attack him for it.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,133
    Didn't they ask people's views on Tim Farron ?

    If not then doesn't that say it all.

    And I have to admit having to goggle 'Farron LibDem' as I'd forgotten what Farron's first name was.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
    Except we're not. The ratings would be falling even if there was no referendum.
    I think you are. All the government's emphasis is on how weak and desperate the UK's economic position is, and thus how disastrous it would be to leave the EU.
    https://twitter.com/DanHannanMEP/status/719925865765855233
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    And the manner in which he did that seriously damaged the voluntary party, and significantly shrunk the membership, too.
    Polling shows he was on the right side of history though. Even UKIP are supportive now.
    Perhaps he was. Which makes the stupid manner in which he went about it all the more unnecessary.

    Leaders lead, they don't sneer at and use their own followers as a triangulation tactic.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    edited April 2016
    Indigo said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I orse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
    Except we're not. The ratings would be falling even if there was no referendum.
    I think you are. All the government's emphasis is on how weak and desperate the UK's economic position is, and thus how disastrous it would be to leave the EU.
    Most of you Leavers are predicting a short term hit to the economy were we to leave, don't be surprised if Remain keep on using that ammo.
    Let's just say that Remain (including Cameron) aren't very upbeat about the UK's future.

    And, that's not good for the government of the day.
    Managed decline has been the fashion in all parties basically since Thatcher went. It seems to be heretical to suggest they we could be good at something, on our own, perish the thought! Its curious that a lot of country less rich, less powerful, much less well connected than the UK seem to do rather well for themselves despite not being shackled to part of a custom union and incipient superstate.
    I guess I could easily wind up TSE by modifying the "Be LEAVE" message by going:

    Hitler believed in a European superstate.

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    :trollface:
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    And the manner in which he did that seriously damaged the voluntary party, and significantly shrunk the membership, too.
    Polling shows he was on the right side of history though. Even UKIP are supportive now.
    Perhaps he was. Which makes the stupid manner in which he went about it all the more unnecessary.

    Leaders lead, they don't sneer at and use their own followers as a triangulation tactic.
    He led quite effectively on the subject.

    Personally I was mildly opposed, but really not that bothered either way.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited April 2016
    SeanT said:

    ON topic, those Com Res results are piss poor for Labour. They would easily be ten-fifteen points ahead with a good leader.

    Even worse for them, Jeremy Corbyn has been cemented into place. He now looks like part of the furniture, he's taken seriously by pundits, he's listened to attentively on the EU, and so forth. He's not going anywhere.

    Barring death or severe misadventure, Corbyn will be Labour leader at the next General Election.

    No - they are not poor results for Labour given that Comres Online consistently has been giving the Tories leads 5 to 8% higher than other polls - including Comres Phone polls!
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Osborne's most immediate problem is this month's paychecks. A lot of people in public sector probably haven't cottoned on to how much they are going to lose from the NI change. Not precisely sure of the effect on private sector workers, may depend on whether they are still in a final salary pension scheme or not.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    SeanT said:



    I'm not sure that's entirely right. I don't think Cameron or Blair are, or were, declinists, or lacking faith in Britain. Cameron genuinely thinks it is in our economic interests to be inside, and Blair genuinely thought we could lead the EU, alongside Berlin and Paris, if only we committed to it.

    Quite possibly - quite probably - they are both deluded, and warped by their desire to play on a larger stage, but I don't think they are insincere.

    That's a fair, nuanced comment.

    Are you feeling quite well?
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    DavidL said:

    He is a Conservative. A classic one nation, patriotic type conservative. He is not a tea partier or a Euro obsessive but he is a Conservative none the less. He wants the best for Britain and I have no doubt he genuinely believes that remaining inside the EU is the best for the UK. It upsets me to disagree with someone I have so much respect for. I will not attack him for it.

    But he didn't believe it three months ago, three months ago we were told that if he didn't get what he wanted in the renegotiations he was quite happy to leave, and was convinced we would be fine going it alone. Then he didn't get what he wanted. Then he went full on Chicken Licken, leaving was a complete disaster and the sky was going to fall in if we left.

    Some of the voters are going to wonder if it was such a disastrous move leaving the EU, with all the various economic meltdowns, plummeting pounds, industrial exoduses and Nine Plagues of Europe falling on the country.... why did he offer the referendum, offering a choice when one opton means armageddon is not the act of a responsible leader. So.. is all the armageddon talk just the teansiest bit overblown, or was he being irresponsble... tricky one.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    I wouldn't wish to be a member of Lib or LibDem party led by Cameron. And before anyone says well.....
    I've been a member of both!
    He is a Conservative. A classic one nation, patriotic type conservative. He is not a tea partier or a Euro obsessive but he is a Conservative none the less. He wants the best for Britain and I have no doubt he genuinely believes that remaining inside the EU is the best for the UK. It upsets me to disagree with someone I have so much respect for. I will not attack him for it.
    But he is deeply establishment - through and through.

    Something I've realised, fairly recently: I am a Cameroon in the radical Gove and Hilton model.

    Not in the Osborne/Cameron model.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
    Except we're not. The ratings would be falling even if there was no referendum.
    I think you are. All the government's emphasis is on how weak and desperate the UK's economic position is, and thus how disastrous it would be to leave the EU.
    Most of you Leavers are predicting a short term hit to the economy were we to leave, don't be surprised if Remain keep on using that ammo.
    Let's just say that Remain (including Cameron) aren't very upbeat about the UK's future.

    And, that's not good for the government of the day.
    I don't understand it.

    Cameron had a chance to be a hero.

    Instead, he's chosen to be another Heath.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    Rather sweet piece about late-primar organisers enjoying their rare moment in the sun:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/04/15/late_primary_states_get_their_time_to_shine_130292.html
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    edited April 2016

    I guess I could easily wind up TSE by modifying the "Be LEAVE" message by going:

    Hitler believed in a European superstate.

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    :trollface:

    Churchill was in favour of a united European superstate.

    Mind you the bugger was also in favour of The UK and France becoming one united, single country.

    Bloody treasonous talk if you ask me.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392
    edited April 2016

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    What's your evidence that Cameron and Osborne are 'on the right in economic terms' ?

    Their economic strategy has been the same as that of the Blair government, namely welfare consumerism.

    The tactical difference is that they prefer to subsidise the consumerism of Conservative voting blocs while Labour subsidised Labour voting blocs.


    Tosh. We have had a significant fall in government spending as a share of GDP since 2010.
    http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5326/economics/government-spending/

    This has been achieved despite more spending on debt interest. The actual increase in government spending has virtually stopped. it is a clear and sharp difference from the policies pursued up to 2010.


    This is not an accident. It is a consequence of a different view of the role of the state, the desirability of making people more self-sufficient and the desirability of people spending their own money rather than the government spending it for them.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,133
    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    What's your evidence that Cameron and Osborne are 'on the right in economic terms' ?

    Their economic strategy has been the same as that of the Blair government, namely welfare consumerism.

    The tactical difference is that they prefer to subsidise the consumerism of Conservative voting blocs while Labour subsidised Labour voting blocs.


    Largely true. And both Blair & Brown and Cam & Oz relied on a bubble in property prices to drive the economy. The one major difference, perhaps, is that the Tories have actually tried to slim the state, but arguably Blair was the same with PFIs etc.

    They are all centrists.
    I think they want to slim the power of public sector unions over the state ie that of a Labour voting bloc.

    But Cameron and Osborne are clearly believers in 'the gentleman in Whitehall knows best' as long as they are the 'gentlemen'.

    Cameron's nannystate tendencies and Osborne's 'meddle in everything' Budgets are examples of this.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    SeanT said:

    I'm not sure that's entirely right. I don't think Cameron or Blair are, or were, declinists, or lacking faith in Britain. Cameron genuinely thinks it is in our economic interests to be inside, and Blair genuinely thought we could lead the EU, alongside Berlin and Paris, if only we committed to it.

    Sadly Blair never really tested that hypothesis because he turned himself into a supplicant of Bush over Iraq and allowed Alastair Campbell, who speaks excellent French, to lie about Jacques Chirac and France's position on the UN resolution.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    alex. said:

    Osborne's most immediate problem is this month's paychecks. A lot of people in public sector probably haven't cottoned on to how much they are going to lose from the NI change. Not precisely sure of the effect on private sector workers, may depend on whether they are still in a final salary pension scheme or not.

    Plus the living wage kicks in this month so firms running on a shoestring are going to be letting a few people go to keep the books balanced.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    And the manner in which he did that seriously damaged the voluntary party, and significantly shrunk the membership, too.
    Polling shows he was on the right side of history though. Even UKIP are supportive now.
    Perhaps he was. Which makes the stupid manner in which he went about it all the more unnecessary.

    Leaders lead, they don't sneer at and use their own followers as a triangulation tactic.
    He led quite effectively on the subject.

    Personally I was mildly opposed, but really not that bothered either way.
    He got the Bill through parliament, yes.

    He encountered significant parliamentary opposition and alienated vast swathes of the voluntary party in doing so. He made no effort to sell it on its merits to his members, or treat them with respect. He realised his mistake later, and even Matthew d'Ancona reported so in his book "in it together".

    But it was part of a detox against his own loyal members, which those close to him deliberately wished to do as they were "all mad, swivel-eyed loons".

    That was totally idiotic.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    edited April 2016

    I guess I could easily wind up TSE by modifying the "Be LEAVE" message by going:

    Hitler believed in a European superstate.

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    :trollface:

    Churchill was in favour of a united European superstate.

    Mind you the bugger was also in favour of The UK and France becoming one united, single country.

    Bloody treasonous talk if you ask me.
    Quite right. Shameful!
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    SeanT said:

    justin124 said:

    SeanT said:

    ON topic, those Com Res results are piss poor for Labour. They would easily be ten-fifteen points ahead with a good leader.

    Even worse for them, Jeremy Corbyn has been cemented into place. He now looks like part of the furniture, he's taken seriously by pundits, he's listened to attentively on the EU, and so forth. He's not going anywhere.

    Barring death or severe misadventure, Corbyn will be Labour leader at the next General Election.

    No they are not poor results for Labour given that Comres Oline consistently has been giving the Tories leads 5 to 8% better than other polls - including Comres Phone polls!
    They are hopelessly poor results in the context of the Tories tearing themselves into tiny pieces over Europe, the entire rightwing going into revolt, Cameron's ratings collapsing, and so forth.

    Early Blair would have a 20 point lead over this Tory party. Corbyn still manages to be five points BEHIND.

    If you can't see how ominous this is, for Labour, then you might as well give up this politics lark.
    Look YouGov - even after pro - Tory adjustments - has just given Labour a 3% lead. Let us see what Ipsos Mori and Comres Phone come up with over the next few days. I predict that both will be less favourable for the Tories than this poll. At the beginning of the year Comres Online was giving the Tories 14/15% leads - so at least the trend is consistent.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    .

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    What's your evidence that Cameron and Osborne are 'on the right in economic terms' ?

    Their economic strategy has been the same as that of the Blair government, namely welfare consumerism.

    The tactical difference is that they prefer to subsidise the consumerism of Conservative voting blocs while Labour subsidised Labour voting blocs.


    Largely true. And both Blair & Brown and Cam & Oz relied on a bubble in property prices to drive the economy. The one major difference, perhaps, is that the Tories have actually tried to slim the state, but arguably Blair was the same with PFIs etc.

    They are all centrists.
    I think they want to slim the power of public sector unions over the state ie that of a Labour voting bloc.

    But Cameron and Osborne are clearly believers in 'the gentleman in Whitehall knows best' as long as they are the 'gentlemen'.

    Cameron's nannystate tendencies and Osborne's 'meddle in everything' Budgets are examples of this.
    That's why Hilton quit. Explained more in this excellent book, which I read inside 60 hours over Christmas (not showing off, just it was that gripping and good):

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Cameron-10-Inside-Story-2010-2015/dp/0007575513
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    edited April 2016

    I guess I could easily wind up TSE by modifying the "Be LEAVE" message by going:

    Hitler believed in a European superstate.

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    :trollface:

    Churchill was in favour of a united European superstate.

    Mind you the bugger was also in favour of The UK and France becoming one united, single country.

    Bloody treasonous talk if you ask me.
    Ah, but you see in his famous speech in Zurich, Churchill stated that we should be friends with a United Europe, implying that Britain should be outside, and stick with its Commonwealth associations.

    http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967
    Alistair said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron wants to win, as an astute observer pointed out a few months ago, there's no way Leave win without winning a severe chunk of the Labour vote.

    Dave's strategy is to make sure Labour party/soft left voters don't view this referendum

    1) As an opportunity to kick him and the Tories

    2) Purely a Tory/right wing only event/fight

    It was no coincidence Dave engaged in this PR stunt the week Corbyn backed Remain. It was designed for the Labour/soft left segment of the electorate
    Would you consider it to be worth trashing the Conservative Party to get a Remain vote?
    Nope
    That seems to be the current strategy.
    I heard the same arguments when Cameron legalised same sex marriage.
    This time, you're destroying your reputation for economic competence, which is far more serious. But, if you think the EU is worth it, go for it.
    Except we're not. The ratings would be falling even if there was no referendum.
    I think you are. All the government's emphasis is on how weak and desperate the UK's economic position is, and thus how disastrous it would be to leave the EU.
    Too wee, too poor, too stupid.
    Exactly.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    I'm not sure that's entirely right. I don't think Cameron or Blair are, or were, declinists, or lacking faith in Britain. Cameron genuinely thinks it is in our economic interests to be inside, and Blair genuinely thought we could lead the EU, alongside Berlin and Paris, if only we committed to it.

    Quite possibly - quite probably - they are both deluded, and warped by their desire to play on a larger stage, but I don't think they are insincere.

    That's a fair, nuanced comment.

    Are you feeling quite well?
    I have a very lovely new girlfriend. It has induced uncharacteristic fits of niceness. She is young and flighty, however, so if and when she chucks me, I will surely revert to type.
    Is this the WWC part time special constable/PCSO who was a little bit UKIP'py?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    .

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    What's your evidence that Cameron and Osborne are 'on the right in economic terms' ?

    Their economic strategy has been the same as that of the Blair government, namely welfare consumerism.

    The tactical difference is that they prefer to subsidise the consumerism of Conservative voting blocs while Labour subsidised Labour voting blocs.


    Largely true. And both Blair & Brown and Cam & Oz relied on a bubble in property prices to drive the economy. The one major difference, perhaps, is that the Tories have actually tried to slim the state, but arguably Blair was the same with PFIs etc.

    They are all centrists.
    I think they want to slim the power of public sector unions over the state ie that of a Labour voting bloc.

    But Cameron and Osborne are clearly believers in 'the gentleman in Whitehall knows best' as long as they are the 'gentlemen'.

    Cameron's nannystate tendencies and Osborne's 'meddle in everything' Budgets are examples of this.
    That's why Hilton quit. Explained more in this excellent book, which I read inside 60 hours over Christmas (not showing off, just it was that gripping and good):

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Cameron-10-Inside-Story-2010-2015/dp/0007575513
    It's interesting that Hilton has a positive view of Trump.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369



    Hmm. Blairite "Positive Politics" in Broxtowe to Momentum. Quite some journey.

    Well, they're actually requiring people to sign up to positive politics. Partly I just want to rally round in case of any attempt at an anti-Corbyn coup. But in any case it feels a bit like coming home.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392
    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    He is a Conservative. A classic one nation, patriotic type conservative. He is not a tea partier or a Euro obsessive but he is a Conservative none the less. He wants the best for Britain and I have no doubt he genuinely believes that remaining inside the EU is the best for the UK. It upsets me to disagree with someone I have so much respect for. I will not attack him for it.

    But he didn't believe it three months ago, three months ago we were told that if he didn't get what he wanted in the renegotiations he was quite happy to leave, and was convinced we would be fine going it alone. Then he didn't get what he wanted. Then he went full on Chicken Licken, leaving was a complete disaster and the sky was going to fall in if we left.

    Some of the voters are going to wonder if it was such a disastrous move leaving the EU, with all the various economic meltdowns, plummeting pounds, industrial exoduses and Nine Plagues of Europe falling on the country.... why did he offer the referendum, offering a choice when one opton means armageddon is not the act of a responsible leader. So.. is all the armageddon talk just the teansiest bit overblown, or was he being irresponsble... tricky one.
    Nobody believed that. It was never going to happen. It was a negotiating position and not a particularly credible one. Hence, some might say, the results.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Indigo said:

    alex. said:

    Osborne's most immediate problem is this month's paychecks. A lot of people in public sector probably haven't cottoned on to how much they are going to lose from the NI change. Not precisely sure of the effect on private sector workers, may depend on whether they are still in a final salary pension scheme or not.

    Plus the living wage kicks in this month so firms running on a shoestring are going to be letting a few people go to keep the books balanced.
    A lot will also be cutting premium rates at the weekend etc to pay for the basic rise and keep the total wage bill neutral. People may well not get the boost that they were expecting.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    I wouldn't wish to be a member of Lib or LibDem party led by Cameron. And before anyone says well.....
    I've been a member of both!
    He is a Conservative. A classic one nation, patriotic type conservative. He is not a tea partier or a Euro obsessive but he is a Conservative none the less. He wants the best for Britain and I have no doubt he genuinely believes that remaining inside the EU is the best for the UK. It upsets me to disagree with someone I have so much respect for. I will not attack him for it.
    But he is deeply establishment - through and through.

    Something I've realised, fairly recently: I am a Cameroon in the radical Gove and Hilton model.

    Not in the Osborne/Cameron model.
    I get where you are coming from but I am a mixture. Not as radical or intellectually rigorous as a Gove. More pragmatic (or weak, take your pick).
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    edited April 2016

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    .

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    N
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    Wh

    Largely true. And both Blair & Brown and Cam & Oz relied on a bubble in property prices to drive the economy. The one major difference, perhaps, is that the Tories have actually tried to slim the state, but arguably Blair was the same with PFIs etc.

    They are all centrists.
    I
    That's why Hilton quit. Explained more in this excellent book, which I read inside 60 hours over Christmas (not showing off, just it was that gripping and good):

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Cameron-10-Inside-Story-2010-2015/dp/0007575513
    It's interesting that Hilton has a positive view of Trump.
    Steve Hilton understands Trump - and Sanders - bit different, but he explains it extremely well here:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqry875bIbo

    Steve Hilton is an absolute hero. I've always liked him. His book "More Human" is excellent. I'd recommend it to anyone.

    I'd totally vote for that.

    I wish they ran the Tory party. Here's hoping Hilton/Gove inherit the earth.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    I wouldn't wish to be a member of Lib or LibDem party led by Cameron. And before anyone says well.....
    I've been a member of both!
    He is a Conservative. A classic one nation, patriotic type conservative. He is not a tea partier or a Euro obsessive but he is a Conservative none the less. He wants the best for Britain and I have no doubt he genuinely believes that remaining inside the EU is the best for the UK. It upsets me to disagree with someone I have so much respect for. I will not attack him for it.
    He's a Conservative in the same way that Sir Ian Gilmour or Sir Edward Boyle were Conservatives. I'm sure he does believe that our future lies at the heart of Europe.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2016






    Hmm. Blairite "Positive Politics" in Broxtowe to Momentum. Quite some journey.

    Well, they're actually requiring people to sign up to positive politics. Partly I just want to rally round in case of any attempt at an anti-Corbyn coup. But in any case it feels a bit like coming home.
    Do you have a link to momentums agenda? I would be genuinely interested. I left the Labour party more than a decade ago but could be tempted back by the right policies. I didn't like New Labours NHS or war policies, but approved of their commitment to sound finances, which they held to when I was a member.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Adam_Ludlow: @stephenkb it's the scores of Tory voters that are most interesting - they still massively prefer Cameron over Boris https://t.co/FHeeiiT8l7

    But, but, but, that's not what the PB Bexit Brain Trust said...
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    Indigo said:

    alex. said:

    Osborne's most immediate problem is this month's paychecks. A lot of people in public sector probably haven't cottoned on to how much they are going to lose from the NI change. Not precisely sure of the effect on private sector workers, may depend on whether they are still in a final salary pension scheme or not.

    Plus the living wage kicks in this month so firms running on a shoestring are going to be letting a few people go to keep the books balanced.
    "Living Wage" sounds awfully New Labour!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I .
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    N.
    S
    I
    He is a Conservative. A classic one nation, patriotic type conservative. He is not a tea partier or a Euro obsessive but he is a Conservative none the less. He wants the best for Britain and I have no doubt he genuinely believes that remaining inside the EU is the best for the UK. It upsets me to disagree with someone I have so much respect for. I will not attack him for it.
    But he is deeply establishment - through and through.

    Something I've realised, fairly recently: I am a Cameroon in the radical Gove and Hilton model.

    Not in the Osborne/Cameron model.
    I get where you are coming from but I am a mixture. Not as radical or intellectually rigorous as a Gove. More pragmatic (or weak, take your pick).
    You're certainly not weak. Anything but.

    I point that out because I sense a few leadership loyalists may wish to paint me into the "nasty Right" box.

    In fact, I was one of David Cameron's very first supporters when Change to Win first launched in 2005, and I have been (and still am) a big supporter of the concept of The Big Society.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2016
    At the 2012 local elections Labour were 9% ahead. If they're now 5% behind that's a 7% swing to the Tories.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    SeanT said:

    justin124 said:

    SeanT said:

    justin124 said:

    SeanT said:

    ON topic, those Com Res results are piss poor for Labour. They would easily be ten-fifteen points ahead with a good leader.

    Even worse for them, Jeremy Corbyn has been cemented into place. He now looks like part of the furniture, he's taken seriously by pundits, he's listened to attentively on the EU, and so forth. He's not going anywhere.

    Barring death or severe misadventure, Corbyn will be Labour leader at the next General Election.

    No they are not poor results for Labour given that Comres Oline consistently has been giving the Tories leads 5 to 8% better than other polls - including Comres Phone polls!
    They are hopelessly poor results in the context of the Tories tearing themselves into tiny pieces over Europe, the entire rightwing going into revolt, Cameron's ratings collapsing, and so forth.

    Early Blair would have a 20 point lead over this Tory party. Corbyn still manages to be five points BEHIND.

    If you can't see how ominous this is, for Labour, then you might as well give up this politics lark.
    Look YouGov - even after pro - Tory adjustments - has just given Labour a 3% lead. Let us see what Ipsos Mori and Comres Phone come up with over the next few days. I predict that both will be less favourable for the Tories than this poll. At the beginning of the year Comres Online was giving the Tories 14/15% leads - so at least the trend is consistent.
    Doesn't change the facts. Labour should be 10-15 points AHEAD.

    All these polls indicate is that the Tories are so rubbish, right now, a chunk of their support has gone to UKIP, or given up entirely. They imply no major Labour revival, at all. Corbyn is an awful leader, now, just as he was when he was elected. He cannot win in 2020.

    The worst thing about these slightly-better-than-dreadful polls is the painfully false hope they offer sensible lefties. Thus ensuring Corbyn will avoid any dethronement, and continue to 2020.
    Yes - but we are nowhere near midterm -which will not be here until the beginning of 2017 at the earliest.The first year of a Parliament is rarely the most difficult for a re-elected Government. Remember Blair took over in mid-1994 over two years into the 1992 Parliament and inherited a big lead built up under John Smith. I am no Corbyn fan, have no wish to see him in place in 2020 and am far from convinced that he will be. That said, we are also a very long way from the 20 - 25% Tory leads that quite a few on here were predicting last Summer /early Autumn.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    .

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    N
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    Wh

    Largely true. And both Blair & Brown and Cam & Oz relied on a bubble in property prices to drive the economy. The one major difference, perhaps, is that the Tories have actually tried to slim the state, but arguably Blair was the same with PFIs etc.

    They are all centrists.
    I
    That's why Hilton quit. Explained more in this excellent book, which I read inside 60 hours over Christmas (not showing off, just it was that gripping and good):

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Cameron-10-Inside-Story-2010-2015/dp/0007575513
    It's interesting that Hilton has a positive view of Trump.
    Steve Hilton understands Trump - and Sanders - bit different, but he explains it extremely well here:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqry875bIbo

    Steve Hilton is an absolute hero. I've always liked him. His book "More Human" is excellent. I'd recommend it to anyone.

    I'd totally vote for that.

    I wish they ran the Tory party. Here's hoping Hilton/Gove inherit the earth.
    Initially, I thought Hilton was hippy dippy, but he really is interesting,
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    I wouldn't wish to be a member of Lib or LibDem party led by Cameron. And before anyone says well.....
    I've been a member of both!
    He is a Conservative. A classic one nation, patriotic type conservative. He is not a tea partier or a Euro obsessive but he is a Conservative none the less. He wants the best for Britain and I have no doubt he genuinely believes that remaining inside the EU is the best for the UK. It upsets me to disagree with someone I have so much respect for. I will not attack him for it.
    He's a Conservative in the same way that Sir Ian Gilmour or Sir Edward Boyle were Conservatives. I'm sure he does believe that our future lies at the heart of Europe.
    I am sure that he thinks Britain's role is to run the place and keep them sensible. Probably a tad optimistic but absolutely genuine.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron's ratings are going down the toilet. There is residual loyalty for him among Conservatives, but it's evaporating.

    I do wonder if he's decided to sacrifice himself for the cause.

    Being deliberately photographed with Thatcher/Major's Labour nemesis of 1987/1992, the Lib Dem leader, who helped wreck many Tory marginals in 1997, Tessa Jowell, and the Green's Darren Johnson was no accident.

    The smiles and laughter looked genuine, which made it worse.
    Cameron's only in the Conservative party because of his background.

    If it had been a bit more Hampsteady and a bit less rural/financial then he would have happily been New Labour or LibDem.

    To summarise then, if David Cameron were a different person, he would be a different person.
    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.
    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    I wouldn't wish to be a member of Lib or LibDem party led by Cameron. And before anyone says well.....
    I've been a member of both!
    He is a Conservative. A classic one nation, patriotic type conservative. He is not a tea partier or a Euro obsessive but he is a Conservative none the less. He wants the best for Britain and I have no doubt he genuinely believes that remaining inside the EU is the best for the UK. It upsets me to disagree with someone I have so much respect for. I will not attack him for it.
    He's a Conservative in the same way that Sir Ian Gilmour or Sir Edward Boyle were Conservatives. I'm sure he does believe that our future lies at the heart of Europe.
    Or maybe he is sympathetic to the view that probably many leading Conservatives held when we first went in.

    That we would rather it didn't exist, but given that it does exist it is better that we are in and influencing it, than out and having Germany dominate it.

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    SeanT said:


    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    I'm not sure that's entirely right. I don't think Cameron or Blair are, or were, declinists, or lacking faith in Britain. Cameron genuinely thinks it is in our economic interests to be inside, and Blair genuinely thought we could lead the EU, alongside Berlin and Paris, if only we committed to it.

    Quite possibly - quite probably - they are both deluded, and warped by their desire to play on a larger stage, but I don't think they are insincere.

    That's a fair, nuanced comment.

    Are you feeling quite well?
    I have a very lovely new girlfriend. It has induced uncharacteristic fits of niceness. She is young and flighty, however, so if and when she chucks me, I will surely revert to type.
    Is this the WWC part time special constable/PCSO who was a little bit UKIP'py?
    No, we split. This is a new one. She's quite leftwing and Millennial and says "Patriarchy" a lot.

    Oddly exciting.
    In the context of da yoof, what does patriarchy even MEAN?

    And why would anyone say it a lot?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,133
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:


    No, there's a deeper truth here. Cameron's values are absolutely those of metrosexual New Labour. He's Blairite to the core. And Cleggite.

    Only tribal loyalty and filial piety - and, most of all, sheer ambition - kept him in the Tory party. It was the best, most commodious vehicle in which to advance his career, as a keen Old Etonian who thought he'd be "quite good as a PM".

    But ideologically he is dead centre, and socially he is notably liberal.

    Socially I would agree with you but Cameron and Osborne are both on the right in economic policy. And that is the way I for one like it.
    What's your evidence that Cameron and Osborne are 'on the right in economic terms' ?

    Their economic strategy has been the same as that of the Blair government, namely welfare consumerism.

    The tactical difference is that they prefer to subsidise the consumerism of Conservative voting blocs while Labour subsidised Labour voting blocs.


    Tosh. We have had a significant fall in government spending as a share of GDP since 2010.
    http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5326/economics/government-spending/

    This has been achieved despite more spending on debt interest. The actual increase in government spending has virtually stopped. it is a clear and sharp difference from the policies pursued up to 2010.


    This is not an accident. It is a consequence of a different view of the role of the state, the desirability of making people more self-sufficient and the desirability of people spending their own money rather than the government spending it for them.
    Yawn.

    As I said they support cuts to Labour voting blocs but subsidise consumerism in Conservative voting blocs eg triple lock pensions.

    Perhaps you'd like to explain why government borrowing is so much higher than Osborne said it would be ?

    Or why when Osborne promised to rebalance the economy towards 'exports and savings' the UK's current account is at a record high and savings ratio is at a record low.

    Or why Osborne's proclaimed 'March of the Makers' has been a march backwards.

    Still house prices are up aren't they.

    Rising house prices and government subsidised welfare consumerism for friendly voting blocs.

    Just as it was in the Blair era, the only difference is that the friendly voting blocs are different.

    And why should anyone be surprised - Blair was the inspiration to Cameron and Osborne and they saw nothing wrong with the economy of a decade ago. On the contrary they promised to maintain Labour's spending levels and to 'share the proceeds of growth'.

    The only problem being there isn't enough growth to subsidise the required level of welfare consumerism.

    So the magic money tree has been used instead.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:


    .

    .
    Tosh. We have had a significant fall in government spending as a share of GDP since 2010.
    http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5326/economics/government-spending/

    This has been achieved despite more spending on debt interest. The actual increase in government spending has virtually stopped. it is a clear and sharp difference from the policies pursued up to 2010.


    This is not an accident. It is a consequence of a different view of the role of the state, the desirability of making people more self-sufficient and the desirability of people spending their own money rather than the government spending it for them.
    Yawn.

    As I said they support cuts to Labour voting blocs but subsidise consumerism in Conservative voting blocs eg triple lock pensions.

    Perhaps you'd like to explain why government borrowing is so much higher than Osborne said it would be ?

    Or why when Osborne promised to rebalance the economy towards 'exports and savings' the UK's current account is at a record high and savings ratio is at a record low.

    Or why Osborne's proclaimed 'March of the Makers' has been a march backwards.

    Still house prices are up aren't they.

    Rising house prices and government subsidised welfare consumerism for friendly voting blocs.

    Just as it was in the Blair era, the only difference is that the friendly voting blocs are different.

    And why should anyone be surprised - Blair was the inspiration to Cameron and Osborne and they saw nothing wrong with the economy of a decade ago. On the contrary they promised to maintain Labour's spending levels and to 'share the proceeds of growth'.

    The only problem being there isn't enough growth to subsidise the required level of welfare consumerism.

    So the magic money tree has been used instead.
    This is too boring for words. Find a new tune, this is seriously dull and pointless.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    @Sean Fear - Hilton is an arch eurosceptic. His strategy was for Cameron to go into each EU summit in his first term, and walk out looking frustrated, rejected and despondent.

    He'd then build up a case for Leave, call a referendum in his second term, and win it.

    Cameron only listened to some of that.

    (Hilton left when he realised Cameron was more interested in establishment civil servants like Jeremy Heywood than him)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002


    In the context of da yoof, what does patriarchy even MEAN?

    It means she knows who to call "Daddy",

    apologies @seanT !
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    edited April 2016

    SeanT said:


    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:



    I'm not sure that's entirely right. I don't think Cameron or Blair are, or were, declinists, or lacking faith in Britain. Cameron genuinely thinks it is in our economic interests to be inside, and Blair genuinely thought we could lead the EU, alongside Berlin and Paris, if only we committed to it.

    Quite possibly - quite probably - they are both deluded, and warped by their desire to play on a larger stage, but I don't think they are insincere.

    That's a fair, nuanced comment.

    Are you feeling quite well?
    I have a very lovely new girlfriend. It has induced uncharacteristic fits of niceness. She is young and flighty, however, so if and when she chucks me, I will surely revert to type.
    Is this the WWC part time special constable/PCSO who was a little bit UKIP'py?
    No, we split. This is a new one. She's quite leftwing and Millennial and says "Patriarchy" a lot.

    Oddly exciting.
    In the context of da yoof, what does patriarchy even MEAN?

    And why would anyone say it a lot?
    See Jess Phillips on Cologne...

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/29/labour-mp-jess-phillips-defends-remarks-about-cologne-sex-attacks

    "We have to attack what we perceive as being patriarchal culture coming into any culture that isn’t patriarchal and making sure we tell people not to be like that."
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    At the 2012 local elections Labour were 9% ahead. If they're now 5% behind that's a 7% swing to the Tories.

    No sign of that in the local byelections which have not gone well for the Tories of late. On your figures Yougov's 3% Labour lead would imply a 3% swing to the Tories since 2012 - but a 2% swing to Labour from 2011 which was the same point in the 2010 Parliament.

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