politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Because CON members are overwhelmingly for LEAVE doesn’t mean that party supporters are the same
According to the regular ConHome surveys and a YouGov CON members poll last month the blue team’s members are solidly for LEAVE and this impacts on perceptions of how Tory voters will split on June 23rd.
But yes, UKIPCONHome is not a reliable guide to Con members, let alone voters.
As to Cameron, he's had a torrid time - but with the Corbyn revelations I suspect that this is quickly turning into "they're all as bad as each other" and "Cameron's a rich bloke" which is hardly news - and not a particularly sensitive issue with Con voters.
I keep seeing Britain Stronger in Europe Ads near the top of my Facebook timeline. I clicked more to explore (I don't see the same from Vote Leave)
Facebook Ads
"Why am I seeing this advert?
You're seeing this advert because Britain Stronger in Europe wants to reach men aged 30 to 45 who are in England. This is based on things like your Facebook profile information and your Internet connection."
Another Facebook ad from the UK Government advertising their EU leaflet drop:
"Why am I seeing this advert?
You're seeing this advert because UK government wants to reach people aged 18 and older who are in England. This is based on things like your Facebook profile information and your Internet connection."
Is it really news that tory voters are fairly evenly split on this? I have to say that was my understanding.
It is really how the others split that will determine the result. UKIP will be almost completely for Leave (there is always at least 1 contrarian) but what will Labour and Lib Dem supporters do?
This is where Remain have a potential issue. If a significant minority of them choose to vote against Cameron (and why not, he is a tory and a rich one at that) then it gets close. If they follow their very excellent leadership then its not. So that's close then.
Is it really news that tory voters are fairly evenly split on this? I have to say that was my understanding.
It is really how the others split that will determine the result. UKIP will be almost completely for Leave (there is always at least 1 contrarian) but what will Labour and Lib Dem supporters do?
This is where Remain have a potential issue. If a significant minority of them choose to vote against Cameron (and why not, he is a tory and a rich one at that) then it gets close. If they follow their very excellent leadership then its not. So that's close then.
I think that Tory voters are torn between dislike of the EU and loyalty to the leadership. I think they could split anything from 55% Remain to 60% Leave. With Labour, the issue is more about whether they care enough to vote.
British public life is made up of people who are steeped in the humanities, ignorant of finance and quietly scared by numbers. From parliament to the BBC, they conflate “offshore” with “illegal” as they elide “turnover” with “profit”, and touchingly assume their personal holdings never swing by such exotic jurisdictions.
Is it really news that tory voters are fairly evenly split on this? I have to say that was my understanding.
It is really how the others split that will determine the result. UKIP will be almost completely for Leave (there is always at least 1 contrarian) but what will Labour and Lib Dem supporters do?
This is where Remain have a potential issue. If a significant minority of them choose to vote against Cameron (and why not, he is a tory and a rich one at that) then it gets close. If they follow their very excellent leadership then its not. So that's close then.
I think that Tory voters are torn between dislike of the EU and loyalty to the leadership. I think they could split anything from 55% Remain to 60% Leave. With Labour, the issue is more about whether they care enough to vote.
Correct. Much as I think Cameron is an asset for me it's quite easy to put the long-term interests of the nation above ensuring Cameron finishes his career in the next four years on a high.
Is it really news that tory voters are fairly evenly split on this? I have to say that was my understanding.
It is really how the others split that will determine the result. UKIP will be almost completely for Leave (there is always at least 1 contrarian) but what will Labour and Lib Dem supporters do?
This is where Remain have a potential issue. If a significant minority of them choose to vote against Cameron (and why not, he is a tory and a rich one at that) then it gets close. If they follow their very excellent leadership then its not. So that's close then.
I think that Tory voters are torn between dislike of the EU and loyalty to the leadership. I think they could split anything from 55% Remain to 60% Leave. With Labour, the issue is more about whether they care enough to vote.
That is undoubtedly a factor although it is curious that loyalty is more prevalent amongst the tory voters than it is the tory members.
I also agree that turnout by Labour voters is likely to be key. No doubt there will be a series of inspirational speeches by Corbyn once the locals are out of the way to inspire them.
Is it really news that tory voters are fairly evenly split on this? I have to say that was my understanding.
It is really how the others split that will determine the result. UKIP will be almost completely for Leave (there is always at least 1 contrarian) but what will Labour and Lib Dem supporters do?
This is where Remain have a potential issue. If a significant minority of them choose to vote against Cameron (and why not, he is a tory and a rich one at that) then it gets close. If they follow their very excellent leadership then its not. So that's close then.
I think that Tory voters are torn between dislike of the EU and loyalty to the leadership. I think they could split anything from 55% Remain to 60% Leave. With Labour, the issue is more about whether they care enough to vote.
Surely Tory voters have no 'loyalty to the leadership'? The membership may, but ordinary voters?
They might like the leadership and Cameron, but that's a different matter.
"The Opposition Leader’s office said it was unable to explain why Mr Corbyn did not declare the additional £450 to the HMRC in his tax return? His spokesman told The Sun: “I’m sure there is a simple reason for the difference but I will look into it.”
Yeah just like the simple law abiding explanation Dave gave but leftie self righteous mob fury ignored
As soon as I heard that Mr Corbyn was making his tax return public I knew that the Murdoch press would find a scandal with it use it to denigrate him. They have plenty of resources to smear any politician who doesn't kowtow to them and still keep up with their phone hacking schedule. They don't need any help spreading their innuendo.
I keep seeing Britain Stronger in Europe Ads near the top of my Facebook timeline. I clicked more to explore (I don't see the same from Vote Leave)
Facebook Ads
"Why am I seeing this advert?
You're seeing this advert because Britain Stronger in Europe wants to reach men aged 30 to 45 who are in England. This is based on things like your Facebook profile information and your Internet connection."
Why oh why oh why do people give Facebook genuine information?
Also could we get another demonstration that the status quo is really no use for anybody from the EZ by June? A joint statement yesterday from Greece and Portugal saying a change of course is needed is not likely to persuade many but the latest Greek "negotiations" seem to be running into the sand and are way behind schedule. There is a real risk of a further crisis in May.
One of the many problems caused by the status quo is that there is no democratic oversight of the ECB's policies. If the UK left to the EEA one of the major impediments to a real role to the currently toy town European Parliament would disappear. Even if we vote for remain I think this will be a driver to differentiation within the EU between EZ and non EZ countries very quickly. The status quo where countries get ordered about by an unelected bank in the pocket of the Germans with no real say simply cannot continue indefinitely.
bigjohnowls Posts: 6,165 April 11 "If The Sun is right JC may owe £180 in tax. Hardly Dodgy Dave territory"
QED
Can you just imagine the self righteous furore from the left had a single pound been inadvertently not declared. Oh wait a minute .....it's happening even when it was all declared.
Is it really news that tory voters are fairly evenly split on this? I have to say that was my understanding.
It is really how the others split that will determine the result. UKIP will be almost completely for Leave (there is always at least 1 contrarian) but what will Labour and Lib Dem supporters do?
This is where Remain have a potential issue. If a significant minority of them choose to vote against Cameron (and why not, he is a tory and a rich one at that) then it gets close. If they follow their very excellent leadership then its not. So that's close then.
I think that Tory voters are torn between dislike of the EU and loyalty to the leadership. I think they could split anything from 55% Remain to 60% Leave. With Labour, the issue is more about whether they care enough to vote.
That is undoubtedly a factor although it is curious that loyalty is more prevalent amongst the tory voters than it is the tory members.
I also agree that turnout by Labour voters is likely to be key. No doubt there will be a series of inspirational speeches by Corbyn once the locals are out of the way to inspire them.
As soon as I heard that Mr Corbyn was making his tax return public I knew that the Murdoch press would find a scandal with it use it to denigrate him. They have plenty of resources to smear any politician who doesn't kowtow to them and still keep up with their phone hacking schedule. They don't need any help spreading their innuendo.
Corbyn is simply being repaid in the currency he himself has dealt in. He clearly has "questions to answer"......
"The Opposition Leader’s office said it was unable to explain why Mr Corbyn did not declare the additional £450 to the HMRC in his tax return? His spokesman told The Sun: “I’m sure there is a simple reason for the difference but I will look into it.”
Yeah just like the simple law abiding explanation Dave gave but leftie self righteous mob fury ignored
There are a few questions arising from that embarrassingly amateurish effort that was produced yesterday. Where were his lodger's rental income? No interest on savings at all? Really? No shares. No claims for tax relief on any charitable donations? Apparently poor records of other earnings. No obvious statements about benefits in kind or legitimate but taxable Parliamentary expenses.
It is quite clear he is used to doing this himself and as an irrelevant backbencher that was probably fine, if somewhat unwise. But this return was filled in as LOTO. He really should have got some professional help to make sure it was accurate and bullet proof. No one sensible would suggest there is anything major here, other than incompetence, but really, what a fool.
Is it really news that tory voters are fairly evenly split on this? I have to say that was my understanding.
It is really how the others split that will determine the result. UKIP will be almost completely for Leave (there is always at least 1 contrarian) but what will Labour and Lib Dem supporters do?
This is where Remain have a potential issue. If a significant minority of them choose to vote against Cameron (and why not, he is a tory and a rich one at that) then it gets close. If they follow their very excellent leadership then its not. So that's close then.
I think that Tory voters are torn between dislike of the EU and loyalty to the leadership. I think they could split anything from 55% Remain to 60% Leave. With Labour, the issue is more about whether they care enough to vote.
Surely Tory voters have no 'loyalty to the leadership'? The membership may, but ordinary voters?
They might like the leadership and Cameron, but that's a different matter.
Yes that's right I think - a lot of ordinary Tory voters still have a favourable impression of Cameron. But that's not the same as loyalty.
Zero pounds. You need to check the rules from HMRC . However Corbyn has "dodged" 180 quid though under the HMRC rules if The Suns reports are correct?If he has then he surely has to resign immediately.
In Labour Taxes obviously are only for the little people not for the great Left wing elite even if it was only a tiny tiny tiny amount........
I keep seeing Britain Stronger in Europe Ads near the top of my Facebook timeline. I clicked more to explore (I don't see the same from Vote Leave)
Facebook Ads
"Why am I seeing this advert?
You're seeing this advert because Britain Stronger in Europe wants to reach men aged 30 to 45 who are in England. This is based on things like your Facebook profile information and your Internet connection."
Why oh why oh why do people give Facebook genuine information?
I’m an OAP and I get them too. I also get Bernie Sanders ads, and AFAIK I’ve no friends resident in the US and only one, very distant, relative.
For the EU Referendum we also see some change from the March Welsh Election Study survey. The figures (with changes from March again indicated in brackets) are as follows:
bigjohnowls Posts: 6,165 April 11 "If The Sun is right JC may owe £180 in tax. Hardly Dodgy Dave territory"
QED
Can you just imagine the self righteous furore from the left had a single pound been inadvertently not declared. Oh wait a minute .....it's happening even when it was all declared.
Jeeeez...
No one has accused Cameron of tax evasion - the question The Sun has raised about Corbyn - a criminal matter and not in "the court of public opinion " either.
"The Opposition Leader’s office said it was unable to explain why Mr Corbyn did not declare the additional £450 to the HMRC in his tax return? His spokesman told The Sun: “I’m sure there is a simple reason for the difference but I will look into it.”
Yeah just like the simple law abiding explanation Dave gave but leftie self righteous mob fury ignored
As soon as I heard that Mr Corbyn was making his tax return public I knew that the Murdoch press would find a scandal with it use it to denigrate him. They have plenty of resources to smear any politician who doesn't kowtow to them and still keep up with their phone hacking schedule. They don't need any help spreading their innuendo.
Partisans are never satisfied and press on all sides smear. That's why neither of them should have released their tax returns - it doesn't sate those looking for trouble, even if there's, nothing there.
"The Opposition Leader’s office said it was unable to explain why Mr Corbyn did not declare the additional £450 to the HMRC in his tax return? His spokesman told The Sun: “I’m sure there is a simple reason for the difference but I will look into it.”
Yeah just like the simple law abiding explanation Dave gave but leftie self righteous mob fury ignored
There are a few questions arising from that embarrassingly amateurish effort that was produced yesterday. Where were his lodger's rental income? No interest on savings at all? Really? No shares. No claims for tax relief on any charitable donations? Apparently poor records of other earnings. No obvious statements about benefits in kind or legitimate but taxable Parliamentary expenses.
It is quite clear he is used to doing this himself and as an irrelevant backbencher that was probably fine, if somewhat unwise. But this return was filled in as LOTO. He really should have got some professional help to make sure it was accurate and bullet proof. No one sensible would suggest there is anything major here, other than incompetence, but really, what a fool.
It certainly looks more like incompetence rather than - if the missing income should have been declared - a deliberate attempt to evade tax - but does the law fret over motive? Could Labour go into GE2020 with a tax evader at its head?
Corbyn went to a good school and came out with two Es. Is any explanation needed beyond 'he's just not very bright'?
Careful because we are about three leaps from this all generating sympathy for Jezza.
I mean you and I might think it risible, incompetent, and hypocritical but many people might relate that return to the difficulties they themselves face at 11.30pm every Jan 31st.
As soon as I heard that Mr Corbyn was making his tax return public I knew that the Murdoch press would find a scandal with it use it to denigrate him. They have plenty of resources to smear any politician who doesn't kowtow to them and still keep up with their phone hacking schedule. They don't need any help spreading their innuendo.
Partisans are never satisfied and press on all sides smear. That's why neither of them should have released their tax returns - it doesn't sate those looking for trouble, even if there's, nothing there.
Since it's made clear the main issue with Dave is he's wealthy - a lot of talk about how he was given large sums even if it is all legal and declared as it shows he doesn't understand normal people- the fact Corbyn may have missed off some very small amount won't lead the national press for long if at all I suspect.pm receives 200k gift makes a headline even if that's above board. Opposition leader didn't decade a few hundred looks petty to report on, pathetic pushback from Tories, even if it is the case it is actually against the rules, unlike the other story. At that amount it's also clearly a mistake not something nefarious, so won't be seen as dodgy.
Corbyn went to a good school and came out with two Es. Is any explanation needed beyond 'he's just not very bright'?
Careful because we are about three leaps from this all generating sympathy for Jezza.
I mean you and I might think it risible, incompetent, and hypocritical but many people might relate that return to the difficulties they themselves face at 11.30pm every Jan 31st.
Even now Zoe Williams is writing an article for the Guardian emotionally identifying with Jeremy Corbyn for exactly that reason.
Nigel Farage's point blank refusal to release his tax return interests me. It will effectively debar him from commenting on other politicians' private financial arrangements. No doubt he thinks the trade-off is acceptable.
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
"The Opposition Leader’s office said it was unable to explain why Mr Corbyn did not declare the additional £450 to the HMRC in his tax return? His spokesman told The Sun: “I’m sure there is a simple reason for the difference but I will look into it.”
Yeah just like the simple law abiding explanation Dave gave but leftie self righteous mob fury ignored
There are a few questions arising from that embarrassingly amateurish effort that was produced yesterday. Where were his lodger's rental income? No interest on savings at all? Really? No shares. No claims for tax relief on any charitable donations? Apparently poor records of other earnings. No obvious statements about benefits in kind or legitimate but taxable Parliamentary expenses.
It is quite clear he is used to doing this himself and as an irrelevant backbencher that was probably fine, if somewhat unwise. But this return was filled in as LOTO. He really should have got some professional help to make sure it was accurate and bullet proof. No one sensible would suggest there is anything major here, other than incompetence, but really, what a fool.
It certainly looks more like incompetence rather than - if the missing income should have been declared - a deliberate attempt to evade tax - but does the law fret over motive? Could Labour go into GE2020 with a tax evader at its head?
As soon as I heard that Mr Corbyn was making his tax return public I knew that the Murdoch press would find a scandal with it use it to denigrate him. They have plenty of resources to smear any politician who doesn't kowtow to them and still keep up with their phone hacking schedule. They don't need any help spreading their innuendo.
Partisans are never satisfied and press on all sides smear. That's why neither of them should have released their tax returns - it doesn't sate those looking for trouble, even if there's, nothing there.
Since it's made clear the main issue with Dave is he's wealthy - a lot of talk about how he was given large sums even if it is all legal and declared - the fact Corbyn may have missed off some very small amount won't lead the national press for long if at all I suspect.pm receives 200k gift makes a headline even if that's above board. Opposition leader didn't decade a few hundred looks petty to report on, pathetic pushback from Tories, even if it is the case it is actually against the rules, unlike the other story.
If you think well paid journalists with trusts and personal service companies are going to let casual tax evasion by the Leader of the Opposition- if it proves to be the case - pass unremarked - you are entertainingly optimistic.
Is it really news that tory voters are fairly evenly split on this? I have to say that was my understanding.
It is really how the others split that will determine the result. UKIP will be almost completely for Leave (there is always at least 1 contrarian) but what will Labour and Lib Dem supporters do?
This is where Remain have a potential issue. If a significant minority of them choose to vote against Cameron (and why not, he is a tory and a rich one at that) then it gets close. If they follow their very excellent leadership then its not. So that's close then.
I think that Tory voters are torn between dislike of the EU and loyalty to the leadership. I think they could split anything from 55% Remain to 60% Leave. With Labour, the issue is more about whether they care enough to vote.
Surely Tory voters have no 'loyalty to the leadership'? The membership may, but ordinary voters?
They might like the leadership and Cameron, but that's a different matter.
Yes that's right I think - a lot of ordinary Tory voters still have a favourable impression of Cameron. But that's not the same as loyalty.
British public life is made up of people who are steeped in the humanities, ignorant of finance and quietly scared by numbers. From parliament to the BBC, they conflate “offshore” with “illegal” as they elide “turnover” with “profit”, and touchingly assume their personal holdings never swing by such exotic jurisdictions.
And are willing to believe that debt and deficit are the same thing... but maybe that is just fingers-in-ear lalalala time, because if they accepted that things were still getting worse, just not quite as fast as before, they might have to do something about it. Yes, I know about Osborne's dream to run a surplus, but he has taken so long to get there it's going to run into the back of the next downturn and... not happen.
As soon as I heard that Mr Corbyn was making his tax return public I knew that the Murdoch press would find a scandal with it use it to denigrate him. They have plenty of resources to smear any politician who doesn't kowtow to them and still keep up with their phone hacking schedule. They don't need any help spreading their innuendo.
Partisans are never satisfied and press on all sides smear. That's why neither of them should have released their tax returns - it doesn't sate those looking for trouble, even if there's, nothing there.
Since it's made clear the main issue with Dave is he's wealthy - a lot of talk about how he was given large sums even if it is all legal and declared - the fact Corbyn may have missed off some very small amount won't lead the national press for long if at all I suspect.pm receives 200k gift makes a headline even if that's above board. Opposition leader didn't decade a few hundred looks petty to report on, pathetic pushback from Tories, even if it is the case it is actually against the rules, unlike the other story.
If you think well paid journalists with trusts and personal service companies are going to let casual tax evasion by the Leader of the Opposition- if it proves to be the case - pass unremarked - you are entertainingly optimistic.
They'll hang it round his neck from here to 2020.
I don't think it will pass unremarked, I think it will be brought up but won't gain much traction with readers and views, so they will move on, because the sums are so trivial. We've already seen the response there will be, comparing this to Cameron by assuming the issues are the same, and his Suns are higher.
Corbyn has plenty hanging round his neck, so a bit more won't do that much more harm, but it won't reverse span you damage done to Cameron either even if it is technically worse.
I keep seeing Britain Stronger in Europe Ads near the top of my Facebook timeline. I clicked more to explore (I don't see the same from Vote Leave)
Facebook Ads
"Why am I seeing this advert?
You're seeing this advert because Britain Stronger in Europe wants to reach men aged 30 to 45 who are in England. This is based on things like your Facebook profile information and your Internet connection."
I know someone who eschewed traditional dating sites and marketed himself on Facebook. It was scary.
Women: aged 26-30 Degree: BA or Masters Relationship status: Single for less than six months etc.
He was able to put himself in thousands of women's Facebook feed.
It didn't get him a girlfriend, mind. He ended up dating his boss.
As soon as I heard that Mr Corbyn was making his tax return public I knew that the Murdoch press would find a scandal with it use it to denigrate him. They have plenty of resources to smear any politician who doesn't kowtow to them and still keep up with their phone hacking schedule. They don't need any help spreading their innuendo.
Last week I commented on that Corbyn might get into trouble if he released his tax returns Not because of the hilarious late filing, incomprehensible writing (which I myself suffer from), or the perhaps incomplete return; but for the information it might reveal of who he is getting money from.
Wait for the press to do more digging.
Labour have also shot themselves in their feet by wanting political journalists and the like (however that is defined) to have their returns released. They'll now have all but the most strident lefty journalists against them.
It's nothing to do with the Murdoch press: it's to do with Labour having unleashed a beast they might not be able to control. When you make spurious attacks as they did against Cameron, it opens yourself up to similar attacks. And there's always the chance that such attacks will uncover something.
Unless you are saying Labour should be held to a lower standard than Conservatives?
As soon as I heard that Mr Corbyn was making his tax return public I knew that the Murdoch press would find a scandal with it use it to denigrate him. They have plenty of resources to smear any politician who doesn't kowtow to them and still keep up with their phone hacking schedule. They don't need any help spreading their innuendo.
Hmm, - Not sure how representative ConHome is of anything, or how useful s single YouGov poll is but the impression I've got from reading PB over the past six months is that the only party members overwhelmingly in favour of Leave is UKiP, Tories roughly split between the two and LDs marginally pro remain.
Corbyn went to a good school and came out with two Es. Is any explanation needed beyond 'he's just not very bright'?
In my experience, those who got Es tended to have the most fun at sixth form. Maybe young Corbyn was a party animal at school.
Partying or not, you have to be unfathomably stupid or lazy to get an E in a A-level.
No you don't. Sometimes an E is a good result. In any case, if you believe the Daily Mail, 2 1960/70s Es are worth 5A*s in todays money. ;-)
Well, sure, an E is a good result if you were predicted an F. For clarification I'm talking about old-git better-in-our-day uphill-both-ways A-levels here.
..The sums may be trivial but Joe Bloggs would be hounded by the HMRC for doing what Corbyn has done..He obviously thinks he is above all that tax nonsense..it only applies to the small people...The HMRC hounded me for over a year for the sum of 20 quid..and that included two visits from a Collector..plus a threat of court procedure.
Now all we need is for Ecclestone and Todt to resign, and all shall be well. Or, improved at least. Hopefully.
Unsure about Ecclestone resigning. Todt, yes - he's been hopeless.
I have a great deal of respect for Ecclestone, and fear for the future of F1 when he goes. He's made F1 the global sport it is and whilst he makes mistakes, I doubt any successor would have quite his reach.
My only question is whether he's losing that skill and reach as he ages.
He's much sharper and knowledgeable than most people realise. Todt's awful.
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
I am largely with you on that... looks like I am going to be stuck in Asia for another couple of years at the moment, will there be any EU to come back to
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
Debt to GDP is falling in: Spain, Ireland, Portugal... in fact, everywhere except Italy (where it peaks this quarter, and it should decline this year), Greece (which is still fucked), and France (where their economy is in serious trouble). (The data on Spain in that chart ends in June 2015.)
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
We listened to Miliband (D) on the radio earlier and Mrs J disagreed with much of what he said. This was fairly notable as she's a fairly firm remainer.
..The sums may be trivial but Joe Bloggs would be hounded by the HMRC for doing what Corbyn has done..He obviously thinks he is above all that tax nonsense..it only applies to the small people...The HMRC hounded me for over a year for the sum of 20 quid..and that included two visits from a Collector..plus a threat of court procedure.
A fishing expedition. Couldn't have happened to anyone nicer...
Will Brand SLab be able to resist Ruthcon1? For those who believe not, you can still get 2/1 on SCons most seats without the SNP, though interestingly Lads have suspended betting on SLab in that market.
I keep seeing Britain Stronger in Europe Ads near the top of my Facebook timeline. I clicked more to explore (I don't see the same from Vote Leave)
Facebook Ads
"Why am I seeing this advert?
You're seeing this advert because Britain Stronger in Europe wants to reach men aged 30 to 45 who are in England. This is based on things like your Facebook profile information and your Internet connection."
I know someone who eschewed traditional dating sites and marketed himself on Facebook. It was scary.
Women: aged 26-30 Degree: BA or Masters Relationship status: Single for less than six months etc.
He was able to put himself in thousands of women's Facebook feed.
It didn't get him a girlfriend, mind. He ended up dating his boss.
It is worth remembering with all the government debt-to-GDP numbers bandied around that governments borrowed to take on large quantities of private sector assets during the GFC and (in Europe) around the Eurozone crisis.
So: in the old world, you £100 gave money to the bank, and it lent £100 to Joe's construction. Result, measured debt of £100.
After your bank goes bust sells its loan book to the Government Bad Bank Ltd, then the structure is: loan of £100 to government; loan of £100 from government to Bad Bank Ltd; loan of £100 from Bad Bank Ltd to Joe's construction. Result, measured debt of £200 (as only the loan to the government and the loan to Joe's construction are counted).
The result of this is that as bad banks are unwound, government debt levels can come down very quickly. In Ireland, as NAMA has sold assets, government debt has fallen more than 25% of GDP. In Spain, SAREB is beginning to sell assets and that will bring Spanish debt-to-GDP down quite quickly. I forget the name of the Portueguese bad bank, but the same will be true there. It is not, of course, true of Italy which does not have a bad bank. (Jokingly, I'd argue it has lots of bad banks.)
Corbyn went to a good school and came out with two Es. Is any explanation needed beyond 'he's just not very bright'?
In my experience, those who got Es tended to have the most fun at sixth form. Maybe young Corbyn was a party animal at school.
Partying or not, you have to be unfathomably stupid or lazy to get an E in a A-level.
No you don't. Sometimes an E is a good result. In any case, if you believe the Daily Mail, 2 1960/70s Es are worth 5A*s in todays money. ;-)
Well, sure, an E is a good result if you were predicted an F. For clarification I'm talking about old-git better-in-our-day uphill-both-ways A-levels here.
Mr. Jessop, I only scanned the article, but must admit I find Miliband's intervention unpersuasive as it seems diametrically opposed to reality. Losing influence might make a credible argument, but losing power is not, because we'd be retaking power to govern ourselves.
Still, how it plays with floating voters is what counts. Will they see his line about disarmament as fearful, or comical?
Mr. Jessop (2), Ecclestone's off his rocker. It's time for him to go.
Will Brand SLab be able to resist Ruthcon1? For those who believe not, you can still get 2/1 on SCons most seats without the SNP, though interestingly Lads have suspended betting on SLab in that market.
Difficult to read the chart, but don't 33 + 18 = 51?
I know Scottish Education is not what it was......
RCS 1000 that seems a bit complacent to me. It only takes 1 Eurozone country to break and the whole thing goes phut. They have no lender of last resort. What is going to happen in Italy, Greece or France when the next serious recession comes along (fairly soon now)? I don't think the voters of Germany or Netherlands have signed up for permanent transfers to the garlic zone. The economic crisis will precipitate a political one for the Euro countries.
We listened to Miliband (D) on the radio earlier and Mrs J disagreed with much of what he said. This was fairly notable as she's a fairly firm remainer.
I doubt Jeremy Corbyn's slapdash approach to his tax affairs will do him any harm at all. His supporters are not drawn to him for his dull competence.
If you are getting your return in late then you have extra time to get it accurate. The man is a simpleton, the Chauncey Gardner of British politics.
You've never heard of offset mortgages or cash ISAs, then?
Would a 66 year old still have a mortgage? Many banks make sure you pay it off by 65.....
There are a few adverts for equity release aimed at at the retired which refer to settling the mortgage. When mortgage rates were astronomic, in the 80’s and early 90’s people extended their mortgage periods to try and manage the payments
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
Debt to GDP is falling in: Spain, Ireland, Portugal... in fact, everywhere except Italy (where it peaks this quarter, and it should decline this year), Greece (which is still fucked), and France (where their economy is in serious trouble). (The data on Spain in that chart ends in June 2015.)
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
But the EZ has such low growth. France and Italy are a massive drag on the EZ.
RCS 1000 that seems a bit complacent to me. It only takes 1 Eurozone country to break and the whole thing goes phut. They have no lender of last resort. What is going to happen in Italy, Greece or France when the next serious recession comes along (fairly soon now)? I don't think the voters of Germany or Netherlands have signed up for permanent transfers to the garlic zone. The economic crisis will precipitate a political one for the Euro countries.
I think you underestimate the real political changes that have happened in some of the garlic zone.
Spain used to run a 10% current account deficit. It now runs a current account surplus. In fact, all of the garlic zone exports more than they import now - something we sadly do not, In almost all the PIIGS, exports are up more than 50% in the last six years.
Spain and Portugal have dramatically liberalised their labour markets. Italy is liberalising. France and Greece are laggards.
The Spanish government forced through massive changes to their banking sector: they closed 48 of the 50 Caixa, forced the banks to raise more than €100bn in new equity, and recognise more than €300bn of losses.
Government spending has been slashed in Spain, Ireland, Portugal, and Greece. It's been cut in Italy.
If you read back the criticisms I wrote on this board about the PIIGS in 2010, they were along the lines of:
- insolvent banking sectors - excessive government spending - massive current account deficits - sclerotic labour markets
Sure, some of those problems still exist in some of the Garlic zone. But the important to remember is: as all of these countries are running current account surpluses, none of none of them need to import capital to survive.
I doubt Jeremy Corbyn's slapdash approach to his tax affairs will do him any harm at all. His supporters are not drawn to him for his dull competence.
Indeed. By filing his return late, he has donated £100 more to HMRC than he had to. I bet none of Cameron, Osborne or Johnson made such a voluntary contribution to the nation's coffers. They clearly aren't true patriots...
Comments
But yes, UKIPCONHome is not a reliable guide to Con members, let alone voters.
As to Cameron, he's had a torrid time - but with the Corbyn revelations I suspect that this is quickly turning into "they're all as bad as each other" and "Cameron's a rich bloke" which is hardly news - and not a particularly sensitive issue with Con voters.
http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/snp-accused-of-refusing-calls-for-school-building-checks-1-4096553
The Sun’s revelation today poses serious questions about whether Mr Corbyn has himself evaded tax, landing him in serious trouble.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7067902/Question-mark-over-Jeremy-Corbyns-tax-affairs-after-he-failed-to-declare-450-earnings-to-taxman.html
8888 seconds
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It is really how the others split that will determine the result. UKIP will be almost completely for Leave (there is always at least 1 contrarian) but what will Labour and Lib Dem supporters do?
This is where Remain have a potential issue. If a significant minority of them choose to vote against Cameron (and why not, he is a tory and a rich one at that) then it gets close. If they follow their very excellent leadership then its not. So that's close then.
Trump 54 .. Kasich 21 .. Cruz 18
Clinton 55 .. Sanders 41
Clinton 61 .. Trump 32
Clinton 53 .. Kasich 38
Clinton 61 .. Cruz 31
Sanders 64 .. Trump 31
Sanders 57 .. Kasich 35
Sanders 55 .. Cruz 28
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/NBC News_WSJ_Marist Poll_New York_ Annotated Questionnaire_April 2016
Clinton 51 .. Sanders 39
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/f0b0dbc3-0429-48fe-9e98-567
Not personal or ungrateful. That's just politics.
I also agree that turnout by Labour voters is likely to be key. No doubt there will be a series of inspirational speeches by Corbyn once the locals are out of the way to inspire them.
They might like the leadership and Cameron, but that's a different matter.
Nick Sutton ✔@suttonnick
Tuesday's Metro front page:
Corbyn the tax bodger#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
9:29 PM - 11 Apr 2016
15 15 Retweets 7 7 likes
They have even managed to get "evade" into the quote about Corbyn. Risky if not correct
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7067902/Question-mark-over-
Jeremy-Corbyns-tax-affairs-after-he-failed-to-declare-450-earnings-to-taxman.html
"The Opposition Leader’s office said it was unable to explain why Mr Corbyn did not declare
the additional £450 to the HMRC in his tax return? His spokesman told The Sun: “I’m sure
there is a simple reason for the difference but I will look into it.”
Yeah just like the simple law abiding explanation Dave gave but leftie self righteous mob fury ignored
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/11/germany-tells-greece-it-needs-to-do-more-as-debt-talks-stutter-a/
One of the many problems caused by the status quo is that there is no democratic oversight of the ECB's policies. If the UK left to the EEA one of the major impediments to a real role to the currently toy town European Parliament would disappear. Even if we vote for remain I think this will be a driver to differentiation within the EU between EZ and non EZ countries very quickly. The status quo where countries get ordered about by an unelected bank in the pocket of the Germans with no real say simply cannot continue indefinitely.
April 11
"If The Sun is right JC may owe £180 in tax. Hardly Dodgy Dave territory"
QED
Can you just imagine the self righteous furore from the left had a single pound been inadvertently not declared.
Oh wait a minute .....it's happening even when it was all declared.
Jeeeez...
Kinnock and Foot can't match his delivery.
It is quite clear he is used to doing this himself and as an irrelevant backbencher that was probably fine, if somewhat unwise. But this return was filled in as LOTO. He really should have got some professional help to make sure it was accurate and bullet proof. No one sensible would suggest there is anything major here, other than incompetence, but really, what a fool.
And we are working on it...
"How much IHT has Dave dodged?"
Zero pounds. You need to check the rules from HMRC . However Corbyn has "dodged" 180 quid
though under the HMRC rules if The Suns reports are correct?If he has then he
surely has to resign immediately.
In Labour Taxes obviously are only for the little people not for the great
Left wing elite even if it was only a tiny tiny tiny amount........
I mean you and I might think it risible, incompetent, and hypocritical but many people might relate that return to the difficulties they themselves face at 11.30pm every Jan 31st.
£0 as far as one can tell.
60/40 is a pretty hefty split (also my prediction for Remain's victory).
Since it's made clear the main issue with Dave is he's wealthy - a lot of talk about how he was given large sums even if it is all legal and declared as it shows he doesn't understand normal people- the fact Corbyn may have missed off some very small amount won't lead the national press for long if at all I suspect.pm receives 200k gift makes a headline even if that's above board. Opposition leader didn't decade a few hundred looks petty to report on, pathetic pushback from Tories, even if it is the case it is actually against the rules, unlike the other story. At that amount it's also clearly a mistake not something nefarious, so won't be seen as dodgy.
(Standard Tory answer about strange elected representatives)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/11/olivier-blanchard-eyes-ugly-end-game-for-japan-on-debt-spiral/
The debt dynamics in this article are based upon an assumed steady state. I think things will be worse than that as we are already overdue another recession. The unfixed Euro crisis has never gone away.
They'll hang it round his neck from here to 2020.
And are willing to believe that debt and deficit are the same thing... but maybe that is just fingers-in-ear lalalala time, because if they accepted that things were still getting worse, just not quite as fast as before, they might have to do something about it. Yes, I know about Osborne's dream to run a surplus, but he has taken so long to get there it's going to run into the back of the next downturn and... not happen.
Corbyn has plenty hanging round his neck, so a bit more won't do that much more harm, but it won't reverse span you damage done to Cameron either even if it is technically worse.
Women: aged 26-30
Degree: BA or Masters
Relationship status: Single for less than six months
etc.
He was able to put himself in thousands of women's Facebook feed.
It didn't get him a girlfriend, mind. He ended up dating his boss.
Wait for the press to do more digging.
Labour have also shot themselves in their feet by wanting political journalists and the like (however that is defined) to have their returns released. They'll now have all but the most strident lefty journalists against them.
It's nothing to do with the Murdoch press: it's to do with Labour having unleashed a beast they might not be able to control. When you make spurious attacks as they did against Cameron, it opens yourself up to similar attacks. And there's always the chance that such attacks will uncover something.
Unless you are saying Labour should be held to a lower standard than Conservatives?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/36017840
Seems to have gone through formally.
Now all we need is for Ecclestone and Todt to resign, and all shall be well. Or, improved at least. Hopefully.
Hmm, - Not sure how representative ConHome is of anything, or how useful s single YouGov poll is but the impression I've got from reading PB over the past six months is that the only party members overwhelmingly in favour of Leave is UKiP, Tories roughly split between the two and LDs marginally pro remain.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36017170
Hmm.
I have a great deal of respect for Ecclestone, and fear for the future of F1 when he goes. He's made F1 the global sport it is and whilst he makes mistakes, I doubt any successor would have quite his reach.
My only question is whether he's losing that skill and reach as he ages.
He's much sharper and knowledgeable than most people realise. Todt's awful.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/11/eu-referendum-brexit-political-arson
He uses a version of one of Meeks's maxims, though without the critical second part:
There are two types of people: those who solve problems and those who are problems. It is much more fun to be the problem than to solve problems.
The fun element is being overlooked.
On IMF numbers, most EZ countries are running cyclically adjusted surpluses. You also have to remember that consumer debt levels in the EZ are way below the levels in much of the rest of the world: Italy, Germany and France are all sub-60%. We're north of 150%.
Corbyn is going to be a problem for the Remain campaign, and it may well be the thing that turns the Labour activists off him.
Corbyn is half-hearted about the issue, a very poor speaker and characteristically incompetent in how he campaigns.
https://www.eureferendum.gov.uk/why-the-government-believes-we-should-remain/eu-referendum-leaflet/
1111 seconds
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/719778128789434368
Will Brand SLab be able to resist Ruthcon1? For those who believe not, you can still get 2/1 on SCons most seats without the SNP, though interestingly Lads have suspended betting on SLab in that market.
So: in the old world, you £100 gave money to the bank, and it lent £100 to Joe's construction. Result, measured debt of £100.
After your bank goes bust sells its loan book to the Government Bad Bank Ltd, then the structure is: loan of £100 to government; loan of £100 from government to Bad Bank Ltd; loan of £100 from Bad Bank Ltd to Joe's construction. Result, measured debt of £200 (as only the loan to the government and the loan to Joe's construction are counted).
The result of this is that as bad banks are unwound, government debt levels can come down very quickly. In Ireland, as NAMA has sold assets, government debt has fallen more than 25% of GDP. In Spain, SAREB is beginning to sell assets and that will bring Spanish debt-to-GDP down quite quickly. I forget the name of the Portueguese bad bank, but the same will be true there. It is not, of course, true of Italy which does not have a bad bank. (Jokingly, I'd argue it has lots of bad banks.)
Still, how it plays with floating voters is what counts. Will they see his line about disarmament as fearful, or comical?
Mr. Jessop (2), Ecclestone's off his rocker. It's time for him to go.
I know Scottish Education is not what it was......
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection :
Should The United Kingdom Remain A Member Of The European Union Or Leave The European Union?
Remain 54% (+1) .. Leave 46% (-1)
Turnout Projection 62% (+0.5)
Changes from 8th April.
......................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE4EU - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors For European Union
When mortgage rates were astronomic, in the 80’s and early 90’s people extended their mortgage periods to try and manage the payments
Edited for spelling.
My ARSE is tighter than the fit of TSE's pink leather trousers.
Spain used to run a 10% current account deficit. It now runs a current account surplus.
In fact, all of the garlic zone exports more than they import now - something we sadly do not, In almost all the PIIGS, exports are up more than 50% in the last six years.
Spain and Portugal have dramatically liberalised their labour markets. Italy is liberalising. France and Greece are laggards.
The Spanish government forced through massive changes to their banking sector: they closed 48 of the 50 Caixa, forced the banks to raise more than €100bn in new equity, and recognise more than €300bn of losses.
Government spending has been slashed in Spain, Ireland, Portugal, and Greece. It's been cut in Italy.
If you read back the criticisms I wrote on this board about the PIIGS in 2010, they were along the lines of:
- insolvent banking sectors
- excessive government spending
- massive current account deficits
- sclerotic labour markets
Sure, some of those problems still exist in some of the Garlic zone. But the important to remember is: as all of these countries are running current account surpluses, none of none of them need to import capital to survive.